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Like a turtle to his balcony...
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Like a turtle to his balcony...

  #1801 (permalink)
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Overhead stop run, back to balance.

The trade today has been to fade the extremes as this broadening shape forms...





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Braodening shape completed, stops run below the market.

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Last edited by GaryD; July 3rd, 2013 at 01:22 PM.
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Closed. Not ready to commit, but there was a good push there. 1.5:1 scalp.

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tight long, 10 tick stop. 2.2:1 scalp

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I had set the target higher, entered into that positive delta push, but then that seller started hitting at the 202x25, and while it was absorbed as I held to my reduced target, I realized the price of oil will not stay this high without a reason.

I still doubt big shorts will go in before the weekend, and may buy again, but I was going to trade 10% today and have already had more entries than I thought I would.

I should have taken the fades I was commenting on, but while I thought I might understand, today's price action was relly tough for me. Slowing way down, only taking what I felt I "knew" was available, I navigated through today with no losing trades. As I typed that I heard that my probabilities are lessening today.


Last edited by GaryD; July 3rd, 2013 at 03:09 PM.
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Yes, I am done. Net 81 is all I got from that whole thing today, less the 30 ticks I lost yesterday. I feel like I made great commentary to myself but did not trade it worth anything. But, if things go well, there is a big move to the downside on the horizon.

Volume is still so light, price is so whippy, normal levels are being blown right through like they are nothing, price broadened which say to me no one has a clue on a bigger perspective, and it makes sense why they don't given the current circumstances.

TGIF(w)


Last edited by GaryD; July 3rd, 2013 at 03:35 PM.
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This week has had me in a time warp. Sitting here at the desk drinking coffee, thinking it's Saturday... but no, it is Thursday, 4th of July. This short week was not only chaotic in the price of oil, but I have a project in DC that was a week behind schedule and trying to bring it back with 3 days to work with. Felt like I was trying to disarm a bomb as the timer ticked away with very little time left.

I started my day checking emails, which lead to reading about defending futures.io (formerly BMT). Enjoyed it. I am a member of Elite Trader, but never liked the way it was set up, found a lot of garbage there. Not suggesting there is nothing good on that site, but it did not hold my attention long enough for me to find it.

Yesterday was rotational, but with a panicky edge to it. That was a very unusual combination of pre-holiday volume combined with geopolitical black swan. I traded it like I was scared of it, and I guess I was. I justified that to myself, thinking I needed to understand things better to trade them, but that is only partially true. Something that is missing from my approach is curiosity to see where things might go while I am in a trade. I ran an ongoing discussion with myself as the effects of the Egypt coup fueled oil's motion for a few days, would guess at how far it might go in a direction, and it usually did. But I did it while out of the trade the majority of the time. Had I been in the trade, there was a lot to be made in two days.

It feels like some of my past failures cause me to limit my expectations. And I have played with that thought before, but what I think is missing is something that is a trick to recreate once it is lost; innocence. Not meaning the opposite of guilty, but the innocence of childhood. Looking at the future with more wonder than experience. Getting some of that back would be helpful to me where I am in my trading.

I have been doing some things I guess, reminded as one of the squirrels just pressed his hands against the window, wondering why the drive thru is closed today. And adding a new kitten to the family has brought some play and laughter. Although, it has also brought into my thoughts of trading "curiosity killed the cat". But, if I did not already know that saying, I would not have thought of it myself. If I had never heard that phrase and was asked to finish the sentence "Curiosity..." and reference Short Squeeze, I would say it "is what makes him so fun to watch". Everything in this house can become something to play with. He would gladly trade all of his pet store toys for a laundry basket.

Innocence, curiosity, wonder, enthusiasm, carefree... those words are trying to describe corrective remedy to an imbalance.

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This week has had me in a time warp. Sitting here at the desk drinking coffee, thinking it's Saturday... but no, it is Thursday, 4th of July. This short week was not only chaotic in the price of oil, but I have a project in DC that was a week behind schedule and trying to bring it back with 3 days to work with. Felt like I was trying to disarm a bomb as the timer ticked away with very little time left.

I started my day checking emails, which lead to reading about defending futures.io (formerly BMT). Enjoyed it. I am a member of Elite Trader, but never liked the way it was set up, found a lot of garbage there. Not suggesting there is nothing good on that site, but it did not hold my attention long enough for me to find it.

Yesterday was rotational, but with a panicky edge to it. That was a very unusual combination of pre-holiday volume combined with geopolitical black swan. I traded it like I was scared of it, and I guess I was. I justified that to myself, thinking I needed to understand things better to trade them, but that is only partially true. Something that is missing from my approach is curiosity to see where things might go while I am in a trade. I ran an ongoing discussion with myself as the effects of the Egypt coup fueled oil's motion for a few days, would guess at how far it might go in a direction, and it usually did. But I did it while out of the trade the majority of the time. Had I been in the trade, there was a lot to be made in two days.

It feels like some of my past failures cause me to limit my expectations. And I have played with that thought before, but what I think is missing is something that is a trick to recreate once it is lost; innocence. Not meaning the opposite of guilty, but the innocence of childhood. Looking at the future with more wonder than experience. Getting some of that back would be helpful to me where I am in my trading.

I have been doing some things I guess, reminded as one of the squirrels just pressed his hands against the window, wondering why the drive thru is closed today. And adding a new kitten to the family has brought some play and laughter. Although, it has also brought into my thoughts of trading "curiosity killed the cat". But, if I did not already know that saying, I would not have thought of it myself. If I had never heard that phrase and was asked to finish the sentence "Curiosity..." and reference Short Squeeze, I would say it "is what makes him so fun to watch". Everything in this house can become something to play with. He would gladly trade all of his pet store toys for a laundry basket.

Innocence, curiosity, wonder, enthusiasm, carefree... those words are trying to describe corrective remedy to an imbalance.

@GaryD Lovely lovely pertinent post. You are our flagbearer, our scribe of many of our innermost thoughts as we all flow along this long and winding road.....

I almost skip writing MANY journal entries once I read your posts.... its all in here!

Happy Independence Day!

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There is lightning outside, Florida summer. I gave up until it wears itself out after it struck down the street. Until it does, I got out a lttile video camera and asked my wife and her girlfriend if I could video tape them. The project is to make a post here. They get to direct the edit and approve the final cut before the post.

I am starting with something that started in another thread, where I asked @Big Mike and @ Private Banker if they had lost everything but $50k, would they trade exclusively for a living? And I gave Melissa and Susan my version of the two similar but different answers.

Then I said, "ok, given that background story, if each of you were in the same situation, it is highly probable that your answer would be no. If not, congratulations. But if it would be "No", there is a reason. Explain that as best you can".

They are thinking about it.


Last edited by GaryD; July 5th, 2013 at 08:51 AM. Reason: condense
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