I have never traded silver, very spiky and thin market from watching, but just "crusing charts" tonight, risk vs reward is, ahem.... off the charts.
I see there is a mini-sized, going to look into micro for scaling purposes.
And, also (please forgive me) the fundamantals. I know through Seeking Alpha there was a lot of controversy in the big silver runup. Not sure what value is, or if silver will be another natural gas.
Yes, it would be. It seems the majority of traders are male, but that may be my perception. That video you shared about "We Are Traders" I posted on Facebook, and it showed women traders. I know Linda Raschke, Carolyn Boroden, but I could name far more men. Didn't you do a Poll about that?
I had a friend ask me last week if she could give me money to invest for her long term. My initial thought was, ES is about to complete an ABC correction, 1560, or a NPOC a little lower, that it almost made it there on Friday.
But then I downloaded the historical chart, and the most glaring area to me tonight is around 1400. ES made it's way back to the top of the major channel, and a measured move back to the bottom frmo the most recent major correction hits just below that number, with the last major high pivot just below that at 1373.
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Hey Gary,
Looks like a failed breakout after balancing for several days. I would think the market would test the lower end of the balance area in which it just returned back into. As for the IB on the last session, the market formed a modest balance if that in the IB period and the market continued to reject the IB for the remainder of the day.
Hopefully that was what you were asking here.
Cheers,
Ben
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This is the weekly. I am understanding the "balance area" to be this range.
But also did not find Friday's support to be unexpected, with the confluence of the DALT / measured move of the prior major down, and the 786 of the recent major up.
Ben, taking the TPOVA chart and just using a price line helps me to see where value has clustered before. I had this chart marked up Friday also, but did not pay as much attention to it since it is new to me. This is just an adaptation of something you watch.
Once price opened so far below the prior day's range last week, I started looking for where it was headed. Are the areas I defined for myself something you would agree with? Or more, the skipping past the other areas?
Journaling can be frustrating. Trying to drag out the contents of your thoughts, meanwhile ridding yourself of concern about that anyone else might think...
And that came from having some great thought as I talked with my wife, but then continuing with the conversation to the point where the fire went out on the thought that conceived this post, and then logging on to document it, but not really being able to define it anymore.
aka, Frustrating
aka, "Fuck", anything that says, I don't have anything to say, but want to be heard.
Survival has limited ties to helping others. And the desire to help others can originate from feeling there is plenty. And, fear can originate from feeling there is not.
The further from fear the closer to wanting to help. Or, the closer to feeing powerful. But it becomes a crossroads.
Wondering if the pros of journaling outweigh the cons.
Training Piper not to eat Short Squeeze. Something wieurd shifted in bed last night. Jealousy? Fear of not having enuogh to go around? Protectivism? Whatever it is, we have some of it.
Silver, gold, platinum, all coming off. Percentage-wise silver still is the most impressive.
Crude pushed through Friday's support in the ON session, but has risen back into Friday's RTH range currently.
I met a new interesting trader last night via Skype, had a long fun conversation. Each experience like that seems to build comfort for me. That lead to some deeper stuff with Melissa as the night went on.
Melissa really does not like the name Short Squeeze... I offered to negotiate with Kitty Kitty Bang Bang... still in talks.
ES is testing the local key support zone, using a recent base as a key reference, and it may provide trade opportunities today, but the larger chart and channels is still something I am watching.
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Hey Gary,
I assume you're just tracking value areas here? While tracking value is important, its equally if not more important to pay attention to structure (areas of excess) to identify support and resistance areas (trade locations) and areas of acceptance (targets).
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Watching a few more of @Private Banker's charts this week. Tough to do sometimes while sorting out what stays and what goes. I initially just brought a couple in, then modified them, then another, more modifying... Up to 15 charts today, had to move things around to see them, crazy. My right monitor is packed with 8 of them. I need to get this back down in the next few days, but just wanted to see a few things live and it is hard to know what I want to see without seeing it. They are still his charts, not mine.
Did a trial run of taking the doors off the Jeep, removing the windows and the top. It took longer to figure out what to do than to do it. Next time, 10 minutes max, 5 minutes possible.
I then drove straight into the neighbor's backyard, picked up his kids, and we cruised around the neighborhood.
I am paying for fun. Not fear.
Flat today until it was time to buy. The burst out of the lows yesterday had me buy-only today, regardless of the open, the panic-ish sell off.
Stalked the long trade, beautiful, done.
Time watching started at 6:30am this morning, but time in was less than 20 minutes. I tried a second entry, never could feel right, closed BE, then bought 1 contract at the C leg / 786, picked up a bonus trade, decided I was not interested in a sideways close, and went to the chiropractor instead.
I realized recently that my rollover method is wrong. I got it fixed this month, and I think I understand what needs to happen in the future, but if I have problems with it much longer I will test drive IQ Feed. It's not the "data" with Zen-Fire, and I am assuming at this point the rollover problems are user error. Data merge perfection is not my strong point. And, I never would have believed it in the past, it does matter. When you work in the environment of percentages and probabilities, placing your bets on confluence...
I still have a feeling that i am done journaling, but I have felt this before, and it is mostly that it becomes a distraction, and that I feel I have learned to deal with whatever i have to deal with without being witnessed.
Keep thinking about a new thread, but about what? Online journaling has been so may things that I never would have thought of, it has been fun, painful, I have felt proud and shamed. But maybe the whole point is to break through something. There are so many things running though my mind on that comment.
I have found that my inner conversations often play out today as if I was journaling, And also that when that happens, I don't feel the need to post it.
Gary, it's so awesome that you're paying for fun. Keep doing what you're doing. Keep everything as is. No need to change journals or anything. Enjoy life. Enjoy your wife. Enjoy short squeeze. Enjoy the jeep! This is what life is about man--in amongst all that hard work, take the opportunity to just be, and enjoy life!! Proud of you man.
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Tonight's focus is response on the weekly VWAP. Not trading, ingesting. I do not know this chart. How can I know if it helps me or not?
Understanding the market is not the same as profiting from it. There is no money involved at time like tonight. I am just sacrificing time in return for experience. What else am I going to do? Watch Conan? (What my wife is watching)
I said "fuck" in reference to my thoughts as I stared at a Facebook photo of my mom before she died, when there was some fire inside her that could not be ignored. She did not die that way. She died though, with my hands on her. If I have to die, and I do, feel connected, I guess. But the word I chose was just meaning frustration. I had some prior post about it but wanted to tie the events together.
Dealing with her loss in the same time period as my bankruptcy, after having spent over a year building her new home that she never got to move into... That was another tough thing psychologically that I saw brought some trouble to my trading in the past. Me going back through those photos, posting one online, and then staring at it later, all had to do with my work on dragging some old memories out to process them more thouroughly than I allowed myself to do initially, which in the big picture allows me to become more balanced.
Still in value, anyone's market. I passed on the short at the top today, looking at the market from a larger perspective. Scalping is only scalping if done at the micro level of market view, and this morning's high was looking from the wrong perpective. The open ran back into value quickly, and ES has gapped higher, 120m could read either way, wide initial balance.
Thanks. The benefits work both ways I have learned. I can see where sometimes I might share something that is beneficial for someone going through something similar, and I can see where my being willing to share things many people would not has allowed me to become more honest with myself.
On the topic of "fighting" though, That I have found to be an ironic flaw. To me, tenacity is a requirement. Gaining independence a motivating factor. But fighting is something I saw that I did that was keeping me from moving forward. Surrendering is also required.
Being such a hard worker all of my career, always being willing to do whatever it takes, the concept of doing that while surrendering never occured to me until recently. Even my approach to "acceptance" has been almost "you will accept now!" in the not so distant past.
I was looking at that photo of my mother, recently posted about here.
In her eyes there was ths fire. Energy, confidence. She was a strong woman, had accomplished all kinds of things where any one of them would have been sufficient to prove her inner power, but that's just how she rolled, so to speak.
But she would not have made it as a trader. She would not surrender to anything.
Gold had a very strong rise off major support in the overnight session. I was watching it last night and wanted to buy it, just before I posted the chart instead. Visual trading. But it has been a long time since I traded gold, and it was nighttime, limited broker support, had several beers with Melissa at Ale House.
Went to bed early, up since before 6am. Baby birds are dropping into the living room from their nest in the chimney this morning. Caught one and released so far, going to be a circus here today with birds flying around and New Jack Kitty thinking they came just to see him.
I don't have the computer power or the screens to run any more than I have for one market, unless I let something go... Maybe I wil try a reduced workspace to gain more ES info.
The I just laughed so hard, I have maxed out my screens slowly working in Ben's (@Private Banker) charts, thinking to myself, "20 charts of one market? You've got to be kidding."
But, I kept a lot, keep messing with them. It is slowly making sense how each says something just a little different. Some are just for clarity.
I'll try to. It may get off topic, since I am starting that way. Pulling things from my head that are not in chronological order right now.
I made a new trader friend just this past week. Very experienced guy, in his 60s. As we talked on Skype and I told him I had over 30 books on trading, he laughed at me. Later sent me a video about it. I asked "how many have you read?" His reply, "One". I laughed at him. Or maybe not at him, but at myself.
Being willing to do whatever it takes is how I have always seen myself. As a teenager, working union construction, My dad got me a card when none were available, and that caused me to get a lot of attitude from other workers who were twice my age and up. So when breaks came and they all leaned on shovels and smoked, I kept working. When there was something "too hard" to be done, I offered to do it.
That developed an approach to work, of almost feeling pride in working harder than anyone I knew. And when I went into business for myself several years later, I was more than ready to work the hours that were required. Whatever happened, I could always find a way to fix it. My work ethics took me further than I had ever imagined I would go, I had whatever I wanted, went wherever I wanted. Houses and boats, etc. And then the market I was in started to shift, slowly. And over the next few years I rode my "never give up" way of thinking right into the ground.
It is little wonder that I brought the same mentality to my trading, as it is hard to change one's nature. But the difference about trading and the previous career, is that if I applied the same approach today in real estate and construction, it would be succesful again. I know, mostly because I have done it. I have a new company, work keeps rolling in, and I have worked 80+ hours again making it happen.
But trading requires balance. Sure there has to be tenacity and hard work, but that is only part of it. Working harder translates into adding to losers. Taking control translates into taking profits early, or scalping in general. But truly trading well means I also have to be accepting of what the market has to offer, even if that means I make money one day and give it back the next.
I almost have to be two different people at the same time; one who works his butt off to achive a goal and will get there or die trying, and another who shows lttle to no concern about the results, takes defeat the same as victory. Yes, I have a preference, and yes, I will see what can be learned from being wrong, so that in the future my results will improve. But I have to maintain my center, and a part of that is surrendering to the unknown outcome. And that is a very hard pairing to do for someone like me. It may be mostly genetic. Both of my parents were overachievers.
I have known for several years that my technical analysis is good enough to be an edge, I know that I learn quickly and digest information very well. My struggle was more psychological, and it took a long time before the real issues became apparent to me. It has taken a lot of very focused work on my part to be able to see through my own ego and pride to reveal some things that I would not let go because they had served me well in the past. Qualities I felt were a part of me that I should keep, regardless of the outcome.
Back when I decided to become a trader, truly made the decision to pursue it as a profession and not some easy way to get rich, my first observation about myself was that I lacked discipline. So, to reinforce that I put the word up on my computer desktop. When my 3 monitors would fire up, it was a black background that said "DISCIPLINE DISCIPLINE DISCIPLINE". I also had T-shirts printed through some online place where I could upload my own designs. That is an example of what I meant by the comment "I will accept or else", (or however I said it in that post you referenced). I am hard core and will force myself into submission if needed, by perpetual bombardment. I could not begin to guess how many hours I studied, backtested, anything that traders do to gain an understanding and, hopefully, an edge. A lot of it was anything but enjoyable. That was not important to me at the time.
Today my word was "SURRENDER". Not in writing, except here. But in my head as I sat down to go over my thoughts for the trading day. I know what I know, and I will make my best decisions based on that knowledge, but after that I have to surrender to forces beyond my control.
Surrender alone is not the trick, it is part of my goal to remain balanced, and when I see myself leaning to one side I try to figure out what needs to be added to balance me out again, and that is what it felt like I needed more of this week. Next week I may be a ballbuster again. But hopefully, if I am, it is only because I see that is what is needed to maintain balance.
Going into "I" period, my read on the day being rotational as early as "A", meaning I started to capitalize on it there, and feeling confirmed by "C", was a great personal win. Days like today used to be so hard to trade correctly.
Major runs up combined with major resistance levels, buyers exhausted, sellers seeing risk versus reward, aiming for a runaway day in conditions like this create what I was taught to call being whipsawed. A word designed to place the blame outside ourselves. "The market did it to me today."
To complicate things, being "whipsawed" can then cause a trader to try to fade a runaway market, because the market taught them to do that too. "It can't go much further" born from the experience that it didn't while I was in it the other day...
That is what I loved so much as I started to dig into market profile. Understanding more what the market is trying to do, why it is trying to do it, as best as possible learning to think like a market. If it actually thought, which it can't. It feels alive though, feels very organic.
For today to have been any different would have been a surprise to me. And that feels good today. It has only been a couple months maybe since I even tried to understand MP, and not that many tight rotational days for crude oil. Neutral, or NonTrend, or Normal, does not matter too much to get the exact definition right as to understand the concept. I could improve on my trade locations.
I said something similar to my wife years ago as she adopted pet #6.
I have been trying to stay down to two monitors actually, but then gave in and added a 3rd. Today saw something on another workspace that I missed. I guess it's just whatever makes you feel comfortable. I saw a guy last week who had 3 walls of 10 each. If he's happy...
P.S. It's 16, plus a quote board, plus ES, plus Bloomberg, plus CNBC on the tv in the background with the sound off.... lol!
Uncertainty is a pro trader's best friend, it is essential to NOT know, Among our greatest frailties; is in our assumption, that what we know is correctly deduced.
It is more rewarding to not know, to simply live with curiosity and happily co-exist with fear. Uncertainty equates to fear, drawing on our survival instincts, it takes time and effort to overcome this and it is almost always a constant battle.
In life or trading, fear makes us do things that, when we look back given the luxury and healing power of time, we realize, are patently stupid. Whereas making decisions, happily accepting uncertainty, brings us closer to contentment. My most deeply rewarding days have almost always been ones when I had no clue what the market was about to do. As I am sure you understand and appreciate.
The reward is not we think it should be, but much much more.
I only look at a couple to make trade decisions, the others I just kind of scan as I am putting together my thoughts of what is occurring.
Probably half of the charts I had up today are not my charts, I don't know them well, I don't understand how to use some effectively, I may decide to remove some, combine some, etc. I am refining my trade location, and am a big believer in confluence, so just getting familiar with some things I am not yet competent at.
I will be working towards dividing them between two workspaces, one higher analysis, and then have those drawings / notes mapped over to a trading workspace.
You were far more eloquent than I was, but that is pretty much what I rolled into my word for the day, "Surrender".
It does not suggest giving up, to me it is the act of embracing uncertainty. That area is something that I have learned I need to stay aware of, and when it slips I try to bring it back into focus. In trading, not having enough surrender in my equation causes me to close trades before their target, not take trades because something seems less certain than other times.
It is similar to "Trust", but different to me in that I am trying to pull out more submissiveness as I reach into my subconscious. To me, "Trust" implies that there is more certainty to the outcome, which over a series of events there is.
But trade by trade, there is nothing to trust. There is no reason to trust. It is more about surrender. I have made my decision, now I wait.
I have decided to cut some calories from my normal diet, more water,more raw fruits and vegetables, less sugars, etc. As part of that, I built this little beer calculator. Averaging one beer a day, I could cut 40,000 calories a year, if I could stand to drink Beck's Light, which I can't. I drink Sierra Nevada Pale Ale as my regular beer, but I went out tonight and bought the ones highlighted in blue instead.
Just thought someone here might get some fun or at least a laugh out of it.
To use it, just enter the "Beer Per Day Average" (US average is about 1 a day), and/or replace the list with your beer info.
I can't do it. I have tried it, but that is beyond my puny tolerance.
But, of the three beers I tried last night to reduce my calories, Goose Island Honker's Ale had the most flavor for the calorie punch. Plus I am only just starting to realize the potential of the name.
"It's Friday, I think I'll grab some Honkers..."
"Hey Melissa, would you mind giving me a Honker..."
One more reply to this. One thing that I do now, is that each of us carves our own niche in trading. @Big Mike with the standard comments about quit changing indicators, as one example.
To me, I have decided to learn one market, but know it inside and out. There are no magic indicators, there is personal comfort with using those indicators until it all kind of gels. I still like a 6 range on a 144 T3, that was not the reason I changed. I left it for something else because it was how the behavior fit in the frame that mattered. I wanted a new frame, for psychological reasons.
So as I look at new things, you hit the nail on the head; it only goes up or down. And I know CL. It might take me awhile to get the new layout, but I am looking for it to tell me something that I have learned, through experience, that I want to know more about.
In my way of thinking, that is different than just switching indicators.
I have found that I like to see a market in 3D, and still not abandon anything I already know. Knowledge of trading is not indicator specific in all areas, so the stop runs, spike tops and bottoms, whipsaws, ATR, momentum tendencies... all of that occurs regardless of the indicator.
So, no I never need all of them for every trade, and rarely use more than a few at a time. It just makes it easier, less hand motion, to have anything I might want to see easily accessible. I am trying to decide if I want to accomplish that through additional workspaces, or through additional monitors.
Friday was a gorgeous rotation day, the edges of VWAP provided trade after trade. Crude is taking another swing at the top of the range this morning pre-open. This will be a short week and I will be watching volume and trading hours more closely. I am not as interested in typing out analysis this morning. I feel very good about where I am, have my wife's blessing to trade full time if that is where I want to be, and may decide to just shut up and trade this week.
I had some great psychological discoveries over the past few weeks, still sifting through the details. I went through in my mind the subtle differences between "Belief", "Trust", and "Surrender", and saw it as a progression in that order. If I do post it will probably be more as a mental sorting ground.
Reading through "Mind Over Markets" a second time. Tougher to digest than the other two for me. Not in any hurry this time though. Only read maybe 15 pages this entire weekend. I read a little, let it sit, read a little more.
I saw @greenr come back stronger recently. Part of the process my friend.
I am not interested in buying this as a breakout, I see it as returning to a prior balance area, and really am preferring to short it but not seeing any reason why. Sitting +17 long, but that was before the news.
Good call Mr D. Sold the top, bought the bottom today. The low pulled into Friday's value and turned on the VPOC. Took small pieces out of each, which still frustrates the heck out of me some days, but the read is more inportant to me still. Later I can push it for what it is offering better, I think.
"Do you know what happens, Gary, to wildlife when left alone from intellectual minds? It thrives, because thriving is its default setting. Just look at a forest.
And do you know what happens to wildlife when given just a little direction by intellectual minds? It still thrives, because thriving is its default setting. Just look at a rose garden.
And do you know what happens to wildlife when there is too much thinking?
Yeah, what wildlife?"
The trading relationship deals with indicators and analysis. Direction starts with a 50/50 chance, indicators used in context can help, but trying to engineer a profit by relying soley on indicators will wipe out an account over time.
Inverted H&S RSP held in overnight. Price is reaching the excess of the prior breakout failure. That area should provide higher level confirmation either way it goes.
And for a new trding alternative, I have started studying flamenco guitar, something I have never played before. It is new and exciting and challenging and intoxicating.
So, while yes, I could try to buy the lows and sell the highs today, or just buy the lows actually, I don't want that to make me see the trees today. This is a forest wide risk versus reward point as a seller, and that is not the right direction today
So I am using this journal as somewhat of a diversion, making sure I take a good lok at where we are, what is happening, that the real move may not come first, all of that. Using this journal to draw out thoughts.
Taking a walk, drinking some water, chatting on Facebook (which I never do). Sending emails to friends about analysis.
To swing trade correctly, for me, what works seemed counterintuitive to me for a long time. The originial thought was; "If that is where the best risk to reward opportunites are, why not bet bigger?"
The reason is, if I am trying to swing trade, is that most important, once the risk becomes enough that I am concerned about it, I can no longer manage the trade correctly over a longer time peiod. It keeps my body too tnese for too long, and being stressed out is not what I want out of trading.
I am not there yet. never played flamanco at all. It will be a few weeks before I can play the easy one.
But, interested. Our new neighbors came from Argentine and I have been asked if I can teach their son to play that style of guitar. I thought it would be a good study for both of us, but need to get ahead of my student before I claim to be the teacher.
He is still finding himself as a trader. At 3 lbs, he is more interested in playing, picks his trades based on all sorts of things, no experience at all. He'd blow up in a week or less.
Is this related to the oil inventory numbers? It appears as if they were released out of schedule. First time I have seen this.. That is really screwed up if that is the case...
Don't think of this as just any oil producing country, Egypt owns the Suez Canal. It is one of the most important shipping lanes in the world for oil. If ships have to go around it, it can add weeks in shipping time, which adds expense.
And, the canal charges a toll, which is a huge income source for Egypt, and there is potential for it to become a target/prize if there is war. Civil war is what I am referring to.
I bought in "A" period, despite the open auction, thought it tested lower and then was headed higher. I was trading as much on what I knew of the news as anything else, plus the gap higher, but then got stopped out for about 30-40 ticks all in.
So I decided to watch instead of get caught up in the news, and could see huge volume selling into it, but there was no way in hell I was going to short today. And did not feel like trading confused. That is why I just watched. Finally bought again at the close, and then got out ahead of the 45 minutes of anything goes. So I am actually down a few hundred, despite being correct on direction.
Not concerned about that really, this is a very unusual event, and I have not seen this type of market many times before. If ever. There was Libya, I remember that failry well. There was the Egyptian elections. I can;t reember much else like this.
A lot of volume was taking place today, more than I am used to, and I do not have much experience trading through things like this.
If this blows over, which it may, the risk premium will become a smart move in hindsight but no longer valid. If it goes wrong, black swanish, there is no ceiling for the "future".
My long into the pit close was a great trade, and I actually considered adding in after I was in it and it came back some, but thought to myself that is just gambling. The market can open anywhere compared to the close, volume was gone, and I had things to get done before my wife got home.
Vwap flattening out ahead of the Egypt announcement. Price ran up overnight to break 102, and is balancing between there and about 100.80.
Bought 2 contracts at the push down around the pit open, closed one +12, other +29 as price consolidates around the upper IB. Price is very whippy and moves are tight so far.
If things go smoothly, this premium will unwind, but it may not occur today as many traders will make their moves and be gone early. But it seems like a difficult thing to conceptualize by watching the news. They have an elected president, by popular vote, and he is being ousted by the people, so there will most likely be an angry side either way, and they people have been in the streets numbering 20 million by what I have read. That is huge. Emotions are high, adrenaline is high there.
Even if it does not go smoothly, there is a decent premium already applied to crude, and so far there is nothing known that would impact the canal.
This is not a "normal" market today, so understandingcould be compromised. There is no better edge in trading than experience, and this type of event is hard to gain experience in.
Huge two-sided trade took place in that bar. More volume than the highest pit close bar yesterday. While delta shows the sellers were dominant, price went nowhere as those orders were absorbed by passive buyers.
The trade today has been to fade the extremes as this broadening shape forms, but the volume into those trades is too intense, and they are only good trades in hindsight.
