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Like a turtle to his balcony...


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Like a turtle to his balcony...

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 GaryD 
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Well, that didn't work.. lol!! Maybe after the 10am news.

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 GaryD 
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EDIT: 1 OFF, STOP PULLED IN



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 GaryD 
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Closed at the opposite side


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 GaryD 
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Back in one more time, above both exits.


And now, it's all about the squirrel...

What is there to do, but watch, appreciate what is happening, relax, think about risk versus reward. See if that squirrel will come a litle closer to being less afraid today.

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 GaryD 
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D period is somewhat troubling to me. I want this to move out of here quick or I may drop it.

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 GaryD 
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closed on ES burst







Net 75. Waiting to see where it wants to go from here.

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 GaryD 
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Took a couple scalps to reduce my risk here.

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 GaryD 
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ES YLOD

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 GaryD 
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flat.

Now short again... It looked like energy was building, and still may be..





Now at least I have this bar to rest on. And possible TPO excess.

This bar...


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 GaryD 
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1 off.

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 GaryD 
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Or do we just go sideways?

I am going to watch this thru close or stopout. Not sure about a target yet.

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 GaryD 
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Hindenburg Omen - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

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 GaryD 
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closed at ETH VWAP, looking to reenter.






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 GaryD 
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Closed again at VWAP, looking to reenter - but not interested in selling into value. May sell higher, or lower, but not here. The day is coming into balance.


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 GaryD 
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ES testing the day's value



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 GaryD 
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Price has come back to balance, still above RTH VWAP. No short trades here, and may even go long depending on what ES does. But most likely looking to short again, or be done for the day. The closer it gets to 2:30pm, the more difficult it could get to determine what is happening. 45 minutes to go in the RTH session, do I NEED another trade?

There is never a NEED. There are good opportunities.

If I were swing trading I would be seeing this as W5 down, target 93.90ish





Which is also in the range of the higher profile NPOC





But, I have finally accepted that I am not a swing trader. I am a daytrader. I watch swings to give me clues, waypoints, expectations, an edge. I am not embarrassed to be a daytrader. It takes a lot of work, an unbelievable amount of work to most people. I have no need to be anything other than the trader I am. No one does.

A part of my issue last year, was I wanted to push myself into swing trading, because I was becoming a good chart analyst. But I do not have the personality for it. Meanwhile, calling myself a daytrader brought a lot of weird looks from anyone I mentioned it to.



If they only knew that all daytraders are not just losing their ass on a regular basis, grouped in with gamblers, seen as chasing "easy" money. There is nothing easy about it.

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 GaryD 
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I think that is why I went through this entire day, step by step. On one side, to claim some pride for what I have accomplished. Being a trader is not something to be ashamed of, but for me it has been when it came to conversations with my wife, my stepfater, many of my friends.

And the other to show that they do exist. I recently had an experience that shifted my entire balance regarding that topic. It means a lot to know that you are not believeing in something that does not exist. It does in fact, exist. Very few make it, true. It is something you have to earn yourself, and it is very dificult for anyone to help much with certain things. But if you want it bad enough and are willing to stay at it, be realistic about it, be patient about it. Spend years studying...


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 GaryD 
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1 off


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 GaryD 
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Closed. I am working on taking at least 1 ES trade a day.

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 GaryD 
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 GaryD 
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GaryD View Post
Sunday afternoon
...similar to how markets react whether in/out out of range/balance, the high dollar winning days that came earlier in the week had pushed my expectations out of balance. Possibly it was ego that took the place of volume...

When markets are out of balance, behavior can be more volatile, risk and/or reward can increase significantly, it is harder to predict how far something might go...

There is a metal sculpture that sits on my desk. It is something I bought while on a ski trip to Colorado, during a time when my wife and I were separated, 2001 maybe. She had "pointed out" that I had forgotten how to live, that all I did was work 24/7. I thought I was doing my part by providing the money I had made, the cars we drove, the vacations we took, our house, our lifestyle... but all of that came at a price. And it was not monetary.

I had become so absorbed in it I did not see it, until, at that time anyway, it was too late.

So anyway, I saw this metal sculpture. It is of a man, very muscular, masculine, giant biceps and deltoids, cartoonish and loosely detailed. He is running, has somewhere to go I guessed. What sold me, is that he was carrying this large flower in one hand. And to me, that represented balance. Masculine and feminine, driven and carefree.

I made some post a year or so ago about how to trade for money but not focus on the money, how to size up without acknowledging it was for greater profits, how to have confidence and fear at the same time. We tend to swing from one extreme to the other, rarely finding that moment when everything has perfectly balanced and the two extremes no longer exist.

The past few weeks I have been feeling calmer than I can ever remember about trading, and I think that is balance. I saw that when I traded poorly on Friday, the best I could classify it over two days of careful meditation, was "out of balance". Tonight I read that again (via permalink for the week) and looked over at that sculpture...




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 GaryD 
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I was going to be a buyer at an ABC, but the expected C leg went further than I wanted to follow, and so I sold all day, despite it being a mostly up motion in the RTH. Then I thought maybe the up move was a minor W4, but that got blown away also into the close (insanity move). Tonight I am considering this view.

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 GaryD 
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Wednesday, 6/12/13


Today is EIA, crude moved higher in the ON session, only 8am so could be anywhere by open. I am running through rcent memories and conversations with myself, feeling what balance feels like. Flexible, non-emotional, unbiased but with a strategy for whatever comes. I am tired again today, TRying to hang with my schedule and Melissa's, but other than that feel great. Back pain is non-existent today, my posture is greatly improved.

Melissa is off work today. She has seen my charts over the years as I explained what I did or what I was going to do or whatever, but she has never, in 6 years, sat with me and watched me trade. While that is most certainly a good thing considering the odds of her catching me on a bad day in years past, the past month I have been encouraging her to come sit with me and watch what it looks like, let me explain it to her as the day unfolds. We have not talked about it for today, but when she gets up I am going to suggest it.

My trading weakness as I started this new journal was psychological. I have gone into a whole new depth of technical knowledge this year as well, but the more important thng was to boost confidence, stop being ashamed to refer to myself as a daytrader. It is amazing the shift that I have felt occur recently as my sense of who I am as a trader has finally solidified.

She may decide she is not ready for that, it could take her awhile before she really accepts it. She accepts it enough that she allows me to do it, she knows the day by day account balance changes since we talked one night sometime recently. She took the $1800 down day without even a change in expression.

This is from an email I sent to a friend recently, "...believing there are guys who trade for a living, not just teach trading for a living, is kind of like believing in any other fantasy being. Unicorns, leprechauns, Santa Claus... Of course, blowing up my first few accounts does not help things, but my wife said to me once as we were discussing me studying trading, "Gary, I know you are workig very hard at this, but at some point you have to realize that it is not real".

As a self-taught trader, it can feel that way sometimes.

I used to give myself mantras like "Believe". Sometimes that felt childish. Would I ever grow up? I used to play blackjack pretty well, carried a rule card in my wallet and would play against a handheld game on the plane to Vegas and run the account up the whole flight there, make my $200-300 a day, then go eat, drink and be merry. Trading seemed kind of like that. Something to do for entertainment. But it was not that as far as my motivation went, this was war. But still, my future seemed to hinge on the shuffling of the cards sometimes.

I don't have that feeling anymore. While the outcome remains unknown in both, there is so much flexibility in the rules in trading that once understood, the advantage is light years away from anything called gambling.

While self-taught traders usually feel like they are alone in the fight, guys who come up on the street have a two huge advantages over the rest of us. 1) they receive professional training, so have no reason to doubt what they are being taught, and 2) they have a network of people who not only believed it was a "real job", it WAS their real job! lol!

My job starts at 9am.

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 GaryD 
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Key reference point for the day, Major players came in here, and seemed to think this was high enough. They could be wrong though, but I am on their side.

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 GaryD 
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Going in lightly before the ES open, may get nailed. Fading a strong opening drive.



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 GaryD 
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On the surface this could look like a "bad" trade. But I am going for adding an element to my trading a major RR opportunities, and on a higher view the market has been bracketing in a wide range, and there is prior TPO excess on daily and weekly profile.

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 GaryD 
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On the RTH I want to see this pass thru the dark area, and then I will add on a pullback. But will be flat going into EIA most likely... Maybe, maybe not.

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 GaryD 
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Closed +25. Any other day, but I still have that reference in my head. Net 51 and flat. Should have hit that with normal 3 contracts, in hindsight, but that was a major fade. I had everything going against it on the small timeframe. I want that as a part of my trading, from the RR standpoint, but I also don't want to start my day with a full stopout for doing something that hard against the flow. If I got hit with 1, I was wrong. If I got hit on 3, I was stupid.

Going to watch them balance out in front of EIA, may scalp that reference. It it blows it means something too. But with the uncertainty in the news recently, I am now leaning short. This is the high side of price that has been between 92 something - 97 something for over a month.

That move into yesterday's RTH close was short covering, they blew everyone out. Then the open above Y value continued the squeeze. But the big sellers stepped in up around the top of this move. The bad news, the biggest players do not have to be out before close... and would not mind to sell more above the current HOD.

The extended effects of potential deleveraging have to be in the minds of some big guys though.


This is where I traded this morning. A lot of small scalps mostly, 25 was the "big" trade lol!





I used to like to scalp the major turns, where I could see there was someone much bigger than me backing me up. That means a lot of freighttraining, and that also means I have been run over so many times over the years. But I have been refining it, and nail some great entries sometimes. And used to then get pissed when my 15 tick winner would have been 150...

"Don't try to pick tops and bottoms" I would read, and tell myself, and then do it anyway... Crazy, but getting better at it. More comfortable with trading and or insanity...

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 GaryD 
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So far they can't get out of this dark zone. Sorting things out ahead of EIA I imagine. Why I closed the runner. If It would have left it, passed thru it rather, I might have held.

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 GaryD 
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Should have traded ES this morning.

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 GaryD 
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 GaryD 
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I scalped one off already

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 GaryD 
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2 off, stop tightened


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 GaryD 
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Closed, looking to re-enter


It was testing the edge of RTH value. Could have targeted VWAP, but...








I would be just as likely to sell this here as buy. But it has not said which to do yet.



There are the sellers coming in. Possibly algos.




That is ETH. On RTH we are right on VWAP, and on TPO we are right on POC





On the 180m 95.92 is a key price to watch.



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 GaryD 
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Bought the stop run for a quick 20 ticks. Still seeing if sellers are still interested up here.



There they are, but this area is tricky for me now. Going to watch.





I would just about kill for vvscreenshot right now.

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 GaryD 
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I missed that trade, Keep getting phone calls today. Damn job... Don't they understand that I have some whispering to do? lol


But the sellers were still there. Pushed price right back to RTH value.






They came up and tested this NPOC.



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 GaryD 
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Not interested in this area, net 116. Going to talk with my wife...


EDIT: 1:37pm, I may sell this around 96.22, would already be short, but cumulative delta (numbers in black area at bottom of chart) has been slowly rising all day and price is so floaty right now. Watching to see if anyone is willing to join me.


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 GaryD 
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Another phone call kept me off an earlier entry, but grabbed another 19 as price crossed RTH value



My exit was 19 instead of 20 due to my late entry combined with the edge of RTH value being 95.76


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 GaryD 
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And this chart tells me I am not interested in trading any further into K period today.

Net 131.

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 GaryD 
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There is my ES trade of the day.





It was a retest of High volume bar, with decent volume on the 2nd test.





But I don't like ES this late looking like this. 1 point and done.


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 GaryD 
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My wife and I have been talking a lot about just being happy in life. My side of that has been mostly about trading. Her side has been about a kitten.

We used to have 4 cats and 2 dogs, but now have no home, all have died except for Piper, and I thought it was easier for us to travel with only one pet to deal with. She actually had said that many times herself, how she really did not want another cat.

And I had once said I was done trading...

So the other night out to dinner, I said, "OK, here's the deal. If we take the kitten, I get to name it whatever I want."

I figured that was a deal killer for her, she had a name already picked out. Meanwhile, her list for my trading is a piece of cake.



Fast forward to today, say hello to Short Squeeze






He and Piper took to each other immediately, guess it was meant to be.


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 GaryD 
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 GaryD 
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It is always amazing to me how many trades I take with targets that are originally set where they would get hit, but then I close them early. The past two days I bought the LOD and sold the HOD, and then took leass than 25% of what would have been there for me.

That does not seem to change my ability to maintain profitability, but at one point that same fact was enough to push me over the edge. I nearly despised my trading, because I would take $300 out of $1000. Looking at today's charts, or yesterday's, or last week's, or last year's, that is what I do.

I like tose entries for a reason. markets turn at key locations, and for some reason I can read those fairly well. What I can't do as well is tell how long to hold them. So to compensate, I just wait for the next major point of POSSIBLE turn, where the volume hits it's max, where the make or break really goes down, and then trade in a way that I don't care what the outcome is.

I think I try to minimize uncertainty.

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 GaryD 
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Trading to make money inspires impatience to the degree that you have experienced money.


That is how I summarized a long silly conversation about why I want to trade. And I went into why I felt impatient. Here was my story;


"... yes, I can make $1k a day average, and no even if I explained why you might not understand, because trading has to come to you through experience. It cannot completely be described. You could have the best trader in the world try to say something that would make a difference to you trading, and still think he was a "scam". That is not the issue.

Imagine, from where our finacial world was just a few years ago, if I had to start from zero and count; 100, day 1, 101, day 2 102, day 3 103, day 4 103, day 5 103, day 6 102, day 7 103...."



Psychology.

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 GaryD 
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Thursday

ES has loacl DTd at key support in the premarket session. CL has opened below Y value but in range, and open drive up to inside Y value. I am looking to short crude, following local DT yeatsrday, I am in 1 at 95.72, ETH hi is 95.86, sitting with a wide stop and watching that area ahead of ES open. The ES DB is troubling to me...





I have had a couple chances to averege down, but ES is a wild card still. I need some work on my swing trading anyway, and being in 1 contract gets my attention level in the zone compared to being flat. Heightens senses somehow.

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 GaryD 
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Closed at ETH Vwap, going to see what ES does


We got down to test yesterday's excess




This market is balancing on a daily basis, but also on a monthly basis, and so direction is a tough call today. So far.


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 GaryD 
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Missed / passed on the trade the 2nd time. Just not a clear enough signal. There was the location, but not anything else...


There is a lack of clear participation so far


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 GaryD 
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Today will be a test of patience, or, I may walk. Tight range two-sided trade. Tough to have any advantage. There was a stop run, back into RTH value, I sold the IB, got stopped out at RTH 2SD, gave back the morning's trade at 3 x 1, net -19.




Decent trade, stop should have been above prior high

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 GaryD 
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Friday, June 14, 2013


My problem yesterday was I held a view of the market in my head, even after I saw something that should have changed that view.

It started with noticing a local double top in CL. It caused me to have a bias, or a plan for the day even. That is not the bad part.



GaryD View Post




What was bad, is I allowed my bias to overpower what the market was telling me.


GaryD View Post
Thursday

ES has locall DTd (typo, I meant double bottomed) at key support in the premarket session. CL has opened below Y value but in range, and open drive up to inside Y value. I am looking to short crude, following local DT yeatsrday, .... The ES DB is troubling to me......I have had a couple chances to averege down, but ES is a wild card still.




Which lead to my not reading the day correctly, and shorting instead of buying, causing me to quit early due to feeling like I was not "getting it".



GaryD View Post
Today will be a test of patience, or, I may walk. Tight range two-sided trade. Tough to have any advantage. There was a stop run, back into RTH value, I sold the IB, got stopped out at RTH 2SD, gave back the morning's trade at 3 x 1, net -19.


I saw price as struggling against resistance instead of pushing through it. The clues were there, I called ES "troubling" because it did not fit my view of the day. But it was trying to help me, and I ignored it.

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 GaryD 
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Flat

EDIT: Once that shape started to form (yellow markers), and price kept getting rejected higher, the trade was no longer valid.

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The ABC held to the tick (I was not precise with the placement, close enough). I have bought into the low side of RTH value, edge of ETH, seeing if this flag/pennant will see continuation.

On the other side, the high of the monthly bracket was tested and could be a major top, so ready to bail at any moment.



Post Close EDIT: That trade should have been good. When it wasn't, that said something significant. The day went very tight rotational to finish NonTrend.

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Rotation wiith potential OTF down... Open was way out of range, can mean anything...

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 GaryD 
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Fighting around breakeven on the day. I keep going with the long side, but have been wrong as much as right so far.


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 GaryD 
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I closed at the edge of this minor channel, maybe flag boundary. I need to take a break. Down net -7 from being a buyer all day so far.

Max drawdown was -65, so I am good for right now.

Expecting a double distribution, but not sure which way.

guess it could be Normal or Neutral.. But so far out of range?


Post Close EDIT: The day was NonTrend. Not what I would have expected with such a huge gap open.

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 GaryD 
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On a weekly profile, today's high was prior excess... It was not well received this morning...

But on Friday, with Iranian elections...






That may be enough to bring NonTrend.

ES is falling, but still above the 386. Far from being a bearish position.

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Scalped myself back up to +39. Not a bad turnaround. Now I have a little padding. Still going to watch this close.


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 GaryD 
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30 seconds to K. Price is dead flat in RTH value. Experience says go long, gut says go short.




EDIT: I chose short. experience said to buy the ABC, buy the edge of value, and none of that was working for me. Range was getting tighter and tighter. I had come back from a negative day, and decided not to let that scare me out of another trade.


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 GaryD 
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Closed. Net +60.




I went with gut today. It's Friday, figured if I had to flip a coin...

I am happy with my trading, I followed my rules and beliefs, even though I was down -65 early. I played strong defense, kept my risk very tight, and got back to where I had a retake on the day.

TGIF


Post close edit:

Price never could get anywhere. The weekend holds to much uncertainty. On on hand, a major high pivot was taken out this morning, and initially volume did some in suggesting major players. But then it just limped it's way lower, it seems it was a great price to sell and/or liquidate before the weekend. But, major selling will not occur here going into a weekend, wit potential for bad things to occur related to the Iranian election, ES not even pulling back past 382, yesterday's major short reaming into K.


5pm EDIT: Very good mindset this week, good reads, great lack of emotion, one slip on bias that is forgiven.

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 GaryD 
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As a toe in the water to feeling the responsibility of trading full time once again, I have decided to buy a new vehicle and pay for it through my trading account. Up until now I have just been experimenting with various things to reach into all the areas of my trading emotions, plus test drive this new way of looking at the market. I started back this year with $5,000.00, and have had times where I doubled the account, drew it back down, doubled it, etc. That was a practice I used to do in sim years ago, where I had to trade until I either doubled it, or blew it up, and either way I had to reset and start over. I had to get my head back to that state of not caring if I was going to have a chance.

I was ready to switch to full time last year, but even though I was doing well trading while I maintained a full time business, the closer it got to really going full time the more pressure built inside me. That was not fun at all. Eventually it was enough to have me quit trading altogether, cancel my Ninja subscription, put my trading computer in a box. But I left the account open, two accounts actually. It was not that I thought I was going back to it, but it was a sign that I did not want to go through the paperwork again. Like a tiny lifeline I guess, subconscious at the time.

This year has not been about any goal, it was more about complete freedom of experience and exploration. I think that is a part of what is missing as we push to become traders, too much pressure on succeeding.

This new thread is not about "big waves", it is not about my "CL Journal", it is not really even completely about trading. I enjoyed being here on futures.io (formerly BMT), that much I knew, but I chose a title that had nothing to do with anything, I still have no idea what Richard Brautigan was thinking. It was some silly memory from college, something that I thought was funny. It was just bizarre. And at times I guess trading had felt that way.

This year my study and practice has always felt calm and fun. Even my own self-criticism, which has in the past been one of the tougher things I dealt with, recently just feels like it just "is". Coming back to it with the feeling that I had complete freedom to succeed or fail, to discuss trading or just drink beer and laugh about past memories. To just be myself, professional or wacky, or whatever. Trading is a part of my life, but it should not be the biggest part. And journaling has proven to have benefits that extend beyond trading.

One thing I noticed recently is I did not take pride in referring to myself as a "daytrader". It seemed like something that threw me into a group that other people see as perpetual dream chasers, never seen as a respected profession. If I had gone back to school to be an attorney, which I almost did back in 2007, the hard work, long hours, reduced income, multi-year journey would have brought with it more outside respect and admiration. My wife would have been far more supportive, my friends far less suspect that I was slipping into denial about my real estate disaster. I needed to wash something out of myself. It has to do with pride in some way, and the recent insight that trading did not bring that, except for my personal knowledge of what was involved, has been very eye-opening.

So many of my close friends have said, with no prompting on my part, that I sound so much better when I discuss my trading. Confident, like I am really happy about it. Mike, Jon, Chris, Susan, Beverly, Mark, all have made similar comments without me asking anything. Melissa hasn't, but that is a step all to itself. One I am working on, but understanding that just as much freedom to succeed or fail needs to be there as well for it to have any real chance.

My thought of a daily goal is gone. I have had daily wins of $3,000 and $30, and while I prefer the bigger number I have not seen it change my mood for the day. Losses have been in the same daily range, but I have clamped back on my "complete" freedom on that side. It served a purpose, allowing me to feel losses, allowing me to be black and white analytical about them, dig into my mind about them. But while a trader cannot control how much they make, they can control how much they lose, and a big daily loss is not necessary to still consider it "freedom". That liberty also means that I am free to set max down, based on what I think is reasonable, and I have done that now. It took me awhile to figure that one out without it being completely arbitrary.

What I have decided on is a variable number, and the rules are 1) it cannot be larger than the prior day's win, or 2) it is a set amount, , whichever is greater. The set max down can change, upon my agreement which occurs the weekend prior, and has gone both up and down week to week, depending on how the prior week went. That may sound counterproductive, but it is about flexibility, and if I want to be allowed to make as much as I feel like making, have no limitations, that comes with a relative risk. Trading is not all about winning, it is more about accepting.

And that max down needs ot be viewed in perspective, It is VERY rare that I hit max down. Way more often than nmot, I quit far from that point. If my max down rules were that I trade until I hit it, the math does not add up so well. But I still have trading emotions, and can get caught in a bad groove. And I still have great trades where I get stopped out full position, and so in that case I will not risk max down on one trade, but may get close enough that it is not hard to go the remaining distance.

"Normal" Down is maybe 20% of max? There is no rule, and I stopped keeping track. Math is not my problem anymore, and even if it was, trying to be exact is futile.

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 GaryD 
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What if, before they ever played professionally, during the early years of practice, Michael Jordan lost $100 every time he missed a shot, or, Tiger Woods lost $100 every time he missed the fairway. Would being penalized for every wrong move at the early stages of learning have allowed them to develop the same level of incredible performance? Would they get nervous? Would losing money eventually change the experience for them? Would it alter their motivation?

Pursuing something like trading with a required outcome is not fun. Pursuing trading because it is enjoyable and we want to improve, is. And when it is fun, the motivation is different, the habits form differently. And as experience builds, a missed shot is not a big deal, there is knowing about how the bigger picture unfolds.

My dad loved golfing. He grew up on a dairy farm, born 1916, had work ethics that are not as mandatory today. But he worked hard for everything he obtained, and when I was a very small child he decided to give me a chance to do something I loved to make a living. He saw these guys, like Jack Nicklaus, Arnold Palmer, Ben Hogan and thought is he could have had a different life, he would have been like them. So he decided to make me a profesional golfer. I started lessons around 5-6 years old, every weekend. Went with him to play most of the time when I was young.

The problem was, I did not really enjoy golf. And maybe, it was because of the pressure that was associated with it. He would correct every single bad swing, missed putt, meaning well. Je wanted me to have a better life, "do something I loved" and make good money at it. But it was his dream life, not mine.

Today I still have his old set of clubs, and would not part with them for anything. But I play golf maybe once every year or two, only when someone invites me and there is a good reason, like a wedding, or seeing old friends after years and they play golf.

The same thing can happen in trading, and being forced to be profitable is a big part of it. That understanding is behind how I came back to the markets. I DID get to where I loved trading, just did not like the pressure.

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 GaryD 
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Sunday, pre-open



It is peculiar to me that crude broke through resistance with a strong gap open on Friday, Open-Test-Drive, and then ran out of steam completely before B period, falling into a very tight range-bound day and ending nearly in the center of the day's range. I would have expected something significant. one way of the other.




I know that there are potential issues in Syria and Iran, and I am guessing that kept the pressure on from below, but it seemed like if you removed the perception of risk, that the price would drop like a brick given the reaction. This value was high enough to keep the major players from buying aggressively, instead of creating a feeling of time was slipping away.

ES did have a hard time Friday, but had made such a great run Thursday that a breather was almost a requirement. I don;'t think it ever did get below the 38% of Thursday. But on the higher view, ES may have enetered a consolidation phase, if not a topping process.






CL is in the final stage of a large inverted H&Sand I wonder if the move up has been more technical than anything.




I have not done and SR work other than to click delete all lines. I am not sure what I want to see this afternoon. I am more interested in Friday's price action than any major pivot at this moment. Crude finds most stops, and this would be a great place for a headfake.

I am not trading the ON session, as I have no idea what Friday meant. Plus, after however long I have traded this year, the odds say my worst day is Monday, and I think it has something to do with the Sunday move versus RTH indicators.

Added the DX back to my layout. It may be temporary.




I have seen some correlation, no more than I have seen with CL and ES, but correlation only works some of the time, not enough to make it a primary focus for me. Additional confluence, yes. But trading one market off another is a losing game.

I have my new indicators locked in to where they feel fantastic. still in honeymoon phase with Sierra Charts and am glad to be here.

I will probably buy my trade-paid vehicle this week, been looking at Jeep Wranglers. I wanted a convertible, looked at Audi TT and various BMWs, but with my back still in rebuild mode I do not want to get anything low. Jeeps don;t have an easy way to put the top down, but I thought it was great, because trading does not have an "EASY" button either.

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 GaryD 
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GaryD View Post
Sunday afternoon

I kept drifting in and out of thoughts about what bothered me so much on Friday. Saw a lot of connections to other things, but could not get it into something I could point at. And then I decided, it is because there is no single cause. As humans we function out of so much inner complexity that the best we can hope for is to generalize. And in general terms, similar to how markets react whether in/out out of range/balance, the high dollar winning days that came earlier in the week had pushed my expectations out of balance. Possibly it was ego that took the place of volume...

What bothered me, is that I experienced the opposite side of reaching for potential gains that day. Yes, I know not the best plan, but I was not trading a plan. That is almost the point of this journal. I am feeling the limts of the plan, making a real effort to define the plan in terms that fit my personality.





GaryD View Post
Sunday afternoon

When markets are out of balance, behavior can be more volatile, risk and/or reward can increase significantly, it is harder to predict how far something might go.


Just as if you want to do Extreme Sports, the crashes can be intense. I had an 1800 dollar hit that day, but was not disappointed with the first $1000. That was the risk I took. Where I fell out of balance was that I thought I would just sclp some of my loss back, in a market that had no clear direction by that point in the day. It made it's move earlier, it was sideways from then out, and that is not the market I hoped it was, because I had missed the move, and I think fully stopped out, withing, I am making this up from memory, but I would say maybe 20 ticks max from the LOD, I thiknk, if I am remembering the right day. Oh yes, the day was a Thursday, no a Friday, it ran through Thursday like butter. I also tried to short resistence, a bit overly enthusiastic because there was not much there to say it was except that I had been stopped out and was looking too hard. Or not hard enough.

Lowered patience threshold.

Feeling good. Great post, is what I feel. That is where I make the most progress for myself, when I can explain this level of what I did yesterday. Not how much I made or lost, that is not significant really. Taking that information, and digesting it, and reviewing it, and when I don't know "why" I don't let that make it out of the question...

Openess.

1) Accepting that I don't "know" anything.
2) Feeling "prepared" in that I have experience.
3) "Believing" in the power of visuals that help categorize those experiences.
4) Prioritizing that it is my job to maintain balance as best I can, with a positive overall emphasis on equity growth and preservation.

That last one seems to take the fun out of it sometimes... lol!!!!!

But that is where I am headed next week. Vacation is over, back to work.

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 GaryD 
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Called Peter today for Father's Day, joked with him about studying the possibility of Breatharianism at some point. Some things do not exist, but pursuing them at least stretches the mind to the limits. He laughed and agreed. And knew I was talking about trading, even without suggesting it.

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 GaryD 
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There should be some decent moves this week. Meaning, I need to really try to hit a runner with every solid trade.

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 GaryD 
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Reference only

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 GaryD 
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Monday, June 17, 2013

Price found support and rallied sharply in the overnight session. North Korea buying joining the Syria/Iran mix in the news. Friday's top blown out overnight, but price has made a linear return to range about an hour before the RTH open.




A nearly forgotten NPOC is overhead, from Valentine's Day.




Short Squeeze woke me up all through the night. He discovered the mystery of feet hidden under the covers, and it was the best thing in the world as far as he was concerened. I was thinking I would feel it this morning, but I went to bed fairly early and am surprisingly rested and alert. He spent the first few days hiding under the couch of under the bed, so I am proud of his progress.


Mondays have been my worst days. Going to ease into trading today.



POST CLOSE EDIT: Net -26. I shorted soon after the open, got taken out. It was a great trade in context of the full RTH session, just off a bit in timing and/or stop placement. After that I just saw very slow, and even uncomfortable to me, movement. I thought about a couple trades, but was already thinking about it being Monday, I entered and then closed without giving the trade a chance, because it felt like I was trying to find something that was not there. And then just got out, shut down. Crude is better than what today showed. Went out and bought a Jeep instead

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 GaryD 
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Thinking about personalized plates, something about taking pride in being a trader. That is not something I would normally do, but in this case it has a purpose.

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 GaryD 
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I think I have recently found myself again. Years have passed. I think keeping a journal was a big part of it.

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 GaryD 
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New bracket, same game.

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 GaryD 
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I sat here tonight, nearly in the dark, at least as far as seeing the keyboard goes. And felt something I don't remember having felt before. Finding beauty in uncertainty? Choosing not knowing? Neither of those is correct in describing it.

What I can maybe describe, is that tonight is no different than any other as I look at the many charts on my monitors, I don't see anything that has me preferring any direction, but

No, I don't have a description tonight. I almost erased this.

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 Big Mike 
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GaryD View Post
Thinking about personalized plates, something about taking pride in being a trader. That is not something I would normally do, but in this case it has a purpose.

Most states are what, six or seven letters? So maybe

IMA TRDR

DAY TRDR

SCALPER

etc

My one and only personalized plate was when I was 16 or 17 for my 91 GT which I heavily modded. I still have the plate somewhere, it reads "BAD 5.0".

Have fun

Mike

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 Big Mike 
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When I got my first corvette, a friend wanted me to get custom plates

"ONLY 23"

Mike

EDIT: Btw, I didn't do it. It was too much, even for 23-yo me

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Big Mike View Post
Most states are what, six or seven letters? So maybe

My one and only personalized plate was when I was 16 or 17 for my 91 GT which I heavily modded. I still have the plate somewhere, it reads "BAD 5.0".

Have fun

Mike

I had an '85, age 17. Jumped it over the train tracks on 3rd ave, and lived to tell. Ripped out the rear end doing something crazy. Great car.

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 Rad4633 
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2Fast4U Plate on a supercharged 5.0
way before pinks every became popular

Gary- I have came up with some plate suggestions but they go along with your 3 sister comments a few days back XXX
chuckling as I type

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Big Mike View Post
Most states are what, six or seven letters? So maybe

IMA TRDR

DAY TRDR

SCALPER

etc

My one and only personalized plate was when I was 16 or 17 for my 91 GT which I heavily modded. I still have the plate somewhere, it reads "BAD 5.0".

Have fun

Mike


CL TRADR
ES TRADR
ES MINI
OIL TRDR
CL WHSPR <---this one is play off Oil Whisperer

nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
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 addchild 
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GaryD View Post
Thinking about personalized plates, something about taking pride in being a trader. That is not something I would normally do, but in this case it has a purpose.

SPC UL8


This is one of those things that is fun to think about but is ALWAYS tacky in practice, and in short order something with pride and sentimental value could just end up a joke and a painful reminder. And customized plates are only a step up from bumper stickers (the morons billboard).

.
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 GaryD 
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RISKMGR

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 addchild 
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RISKMGR

People will think you're an actuary.

.
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 GaryD 
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Tuesday

TUT email of the day. "A runner's high doesn't come from thinking about the end result; to a runner so affected, the end result is assured. Instead, they think only of the moment, one step, one breath, and one heartbeat at a time."


Price stayed confined to the recent bracket in the ON session, ranging from roughly 97.40 to 98.80., slightly favoring the lower side, but in a very tight and choppy corrective-type motion, mostly occuring inside the single prints from Monday's K period.

Volume has moved to the August contract an hour before RTH.

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 GaryD 
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addchild View Post
People will think you're an actuary.

That's a big part of it.

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 GaryD 
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Today is the only time I can recall where I dozed off in a trade, awakened by the sound of my target hitting. (Short Squeeze is a pain all through the night) A long slow reversion trade to ETH VWAP after testing a break out of the 2-day RTH range on the upside and then retruning to value. I did not get a great entry, compared to today's range, but took little to no heat.

It looks like FOMC has put crude price action into slow motion today. Sitting net +52, going to walk around and see f I can wake up more.


Switched back to July contract looking for volume

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 GaryD 
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I actually did go take a nap. There was nobody in this market as could be seen in both contract's volume. I came back to the screens to see price take out the RTH HOD, and started to go with it, changed my mind (3 tick long) and then faded it.






It may still run higher into the close, but I hid behind that bar shown with the arrow for a quick in and out scalp.





What caused me to change my mind on the long was the similar bar to the left of my trade entry, printing 183x1, combined with the profile shape of the day, and feeling that no one was seriously in this price action.






Net 67 in August, plus 5 in July.

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 GaryD 
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Post close shot, same thing. If this were still RTH I would short it again. Those are just stops getting run, if I had to take a guess, guys like me years ago who thought I could catch a big swing at 2pm by fading the market with a tiny stop...

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 GaryD 
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I am contemplating ending this thread. Recently I see it as a bridge from one thing to another.

Then I question myself, if it is purely social/journaling, why does it matter?

I came back into trading and test drove the hell out of it for a few months. My goal was not to have one. This particular ride was pure visceral meets zen. But, I decided to make a move in a more defined direction recently, drove home in my new crudemobile last night, set up the bluetooth, voice commands, etc. this evening. Thought some more about getting a custom tag for it. As I walked back and forth, bringing things in to the house that were in my previous vehicle, or to the trash cans, visualizing various proclamations written in 6 or 7 letters on the left rear corner...

I am feeling great. Trading better than I ever have in terms of psychology. I got a PM from someone the other day, sounded like they were hoping to "save" me. lol!! Maybe I go too far sometimes with my posts. Possibly my personality is on the extreme side. More than likely it is foreign to imagine my long but sure path to disassociation with how much I might make.

My journey is unique to me, just as all of ours are to us.

I am happier being a trader today than at any point previous. I have been humbled by the market more than a few times. Ass-raped a time or two even. I have most definitely learned respect for it. I can listen or get my head handed to me, those are the options it gives me every day. Strange in some ways that I have grown comfortable with those terms. Dare I admit, prefer them. It comes with a trade-off, something I am not yet capable of putting into the correct words. Not that I feel that is necessary anymore.

I had a lot of stuff to sort through in my mind over the past 6 years. I don't feel I am completely the same person who discovered futures.io (formerly BMT), and am convinced, but lacking proof, that futures.io (formerly BMT) is part of the transformation I have gone through. Inviting me to express my inner thoughts in a way that would just be more than awkward in any other social setting I can picture. Causing me to dig deeper than I would have otherwise.

I took a nap today during the lunch trading! I had seen enough, it was not my type of market, and what better way to spend a rainy day after our new kitten has kept me up two nights in a row? I made my first two vehicle payments in between sleeping. lol!!! I can't cant the number of times I have been typing and something came out that made me just laugh out loud here in my chair. That was funny mostly because I know how finicky today's wins could be if I am not careful. But, that's ok. I like it that way.

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 Big Mike 
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When a door closes, a window opens. Or something like that. Just do what you gotta do, and keep moving forward. The most important thing is to focus on what you want to do, what makes you happy.

Mike

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 GaryD 
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Big Mike View Post
The most important thing is to focus on what you want to do, what makes you happy.


Mike, possibly above all else, that is what learning to trade has taught me. In a newer thread I saw last night about futures.io (formerly BMT) and vendors, your defending what you wanted this site to be really resonated with me. For me, it has been an incredible experience. And while futures.io (formerly BMT) has all kinds of indicators and webinars that alone make the "$100 for life" the best value of any trading site out there, plus guys willing to help a person with custom indicators, other guys who can provide very knowledgeable answers to almost any question about trading... the real value of this site is deeper than any of that. And it comes back to you having a clear picture of what it should be, and the sacrifices you make to keep it that way.

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 GaryD 
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I just liked this post and wanted to give credit before I plagiarized a few sections of it.



FB2012 View Post

"Fear leads to anger, anger leads to hate and hate leads suffering"

"If you have an target you want to achieve you should not concentrate too much on the target... not getting too obsessed by achieving the goal, this is the most difficult thing in trading."

"Love what you are currently doing, therefore the steps (even the smallest step) should be loved and this will square the outcome."

"I have to respect the market and when I respect the market, the market will honor that in giving back respect to me."

"Attachment leads to jealousy. The shadow of greed that is. Train yourself to let go of everything you fear to lose."



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 GaryD 
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Wednesday, 6/19/13


A big day is expected, expanding that "day" reference to 24 hours. EIA + FOMC = OMG movement, most likely.


Price has been bracketing since Friday, with value rising just slightly.




The green zone above is the merged value area




And I just caught the news, there is a followup Chairman Press Conference at 2:30pm, just as crude closes, could it be Bernanke's Last Stand?


No fibs still


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 josh 
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GaryD View Post
And I just caught the news, there is a followup Chairman Press Conference at 2:30pm, just as crude closes, could it be Bernanke's Last Stand?

There is usually a press conference following the FOMC statement... (edit: supposed to be quarterly, but I think this can vary depending on meeting dates). There is a script released at the time, which Bernanke then reads in his usual way, and then questions.

Happy you have been doing so well recently Gary, thanks for your recent posts.

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 GaryD 
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Going to try a short to start the day. I picked Y HOD. I most likely will not go to stop if wrong. But just sitting here watching. Will close or pull tight at EIA.








Initial Stop around 1.5SD ETH, and beyond that volume valley


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 GaryD 
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This reversal set on the footprint is where I made my decision to enter. Had been eyeing the short side since before the open. Several reasons, including the test of the excess.

I had entered short a litle earlier, and then closed at -3, it felt like, I don;t know. But not right.


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 GaryD 
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closed


net 27 on a wacky day

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 GaryD 
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josh View Post
There is usually a press conference following the FOMC statement... (edit: supposed to be quarterly, but I think this can vary depending on meeting dates). There is a script released at the time, which Bernanke then reads in his usual way, and then questions.
.

Posen: Who Will Replace Bernanke? - CNBC


But not with his replacement in the headlines.

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 GaryD 
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Wednesday eveining


Took the Jeep to the beach early, roughly 3pm. Laid out, did some bodysurfing in puny waves, searched 6 restaurant for raw clams, then they closed on us and we ate crap at the charter boat bar. Drove home with wind in our faces. Talked about life, a word simliar to fuck, on that it can have as many meanings.


She held my hand on the drive home. She had already heard all of the new analogies I had come up with since we got in the Jeep. We just drank beer and ate. And walked down the docks looking at the boats. Would you want one again conmversation...


"This fits me" I said, after 4 beers, and I handed in my card, explaining I had to drive home. Cut myself off.


But it was a night where I would have preferred to have had a room and drank til we could talk no more.

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 GaryD 
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will edit later. Grabbing thoughts. Too fast today

I have been a buyer today so far. Sitting +58

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 GaryD 
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I hit max down today. I knew we opened was out of range, but it was so far that it seemed like it was already finding a new value. I contued to see the green shaded area as aggressive responsive buyers, and as I bought pullback, I would get runover, then it would accept value again, I would buy a pullback, get runover...

It happens, I know that. I saw the opening frive, that should have been some hint to go short, and I also saw that price never did break above ETH VWAP for the entire RTH session. Just stuck in a certain way of seeing the market today, and just as I was ready to abandon it, it would confirm it again...

Even though I can see it now, in real time the buying looked, and was, very real. Price tried to break out 3 times in a row. I think going from a bullish tendency market to a market where we maybe saw panic again, I was not able to rewire fast enough.

Net -109


But, on a good note, I was ok with it today. Because I must make decisions, I will be wrong sometimes. But, I continue to manage from my perspective. Today may change that perspective going forward.

I was wrong. I am allowed to be wrong, and learn from it.

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 GaryD 
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Friday


Took a long in the globex session, after Asia opened, closed net 35. Price did keep moving higher, but I was going to bed, and it causes me to wake up all through the night to check that evertything is ok, I have not lost service, computer has not crashed, power has not gone off, etc.

Pre-open, price came back up into an area I kept wrongly defining as support yesterday. Or maybe not wrongly, as there was buying there, but I was trying to be a buyer higher up than that, after confirming someone stronger than me turned price, and had a hard time making money from it.




Around 4:30am price once again tested that 95.80ish top.






We saw the movie After Earth recently, and there was a quote that I thought was great relating to trading;

"Fear is not real. The only place that fear can exist is in our thoughts of the future. It is a product of our imagination, causing us to fear things that do not at present, and may not ever, exist. That is near insanity.

Do not misunderstand me, danger is very real, but fear is a choice.

We are all telling ourselves a story, and that day mine changed."



Fear is only one of the stories we tell ourselves as traders. Through practice, we are able to change the stories that cause bad trading habits. I felt this sense of connection with that quote as he said it, knowing first hand that there have been moments, not as well-defined as one particular day maybe but extending over a period of time typically, where my stories have changed.

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