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Like a turtle to his balcony...
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Like a turtle to his balcony...

  #1361 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
I have a new favorite quote from Markets in Profile. Not one that would have been comforting several years ago, but somehow is tonight.


"Ask.com defines cognition with a lot of descriptive words and phrases. Among them are: “a very broad term, which is not easy to describe,” and “mechanisms involved in such process in human beings as perception, attention, learning, thought, concept formation, reading, problem solving, and the development of such behavior.”

True cognitive learning only begins when you realize that you have to transcend the limitations of fixed definitions in order to discover how markets really operate...

On several occasions, we have used the phrase “immersed in the markets.” This is just another way of saying that you have to be deeply, personally involved in the markets before you can begin to discover just how much of your creative energy is required before you can begin to travel down the path toward being an expert trader."

Awesome @GaryD, This really is a subtle sledgehammer. MP founders/creators understand, that a structured linear approach to reading market action will fail if the market student does not understand the subtleties of market participant behavior, of context, of fear, of greed and of prevailing mood.

This is where experience and texture comes in. This is also true of any other approach (including Elliot Wave types). It is also why I fail to understand why followers of ANY approach believe so dogmatically that market follows a certain set of rules defined by approach "A" or "B" or "C". This is nonsense. All approaches work, the student must determine when it does not. But traders are generally meat-heads, not artisans. (this is also why I chose more esoteric ways to structure market rather than stats or automation or cut and dried approaches, but that is another story altogether).

I am surprised still by the number of folks that think the market (ES) is stretched, even today. And why there is so little understanding of what has recently transpired in the Yen-USD (via BOJ Intervention), its trickle down effect on JGB yield spike and MORE importantly the immediate effect on USD, Euro and other risk assets. The JGB buyers for the first time in many years have woken up to the indiscriminate reflation attempt of the Yen, the curve ball is a spike in JGB yield. Its affect is immediate and potent. Not just in the huge trillion dollar FX market but also assets like Nikkei, other equity markets like ES and finally the smaller slave markets of Crude and Gold and other commodities. If a macro impulsive on DX is fostered by Yen outflow, as it likely will, the effects are rather important to watch.

I had expected some thoughtful analysis, especially on the ES Spoo thread, but hopefully some one will pick it up. If not, there is always the miscreant man himself. And what he has to be say about the USD and USD denominated assets. As usual, his message is reading in between the lines and what he implies.


Added comment -

For some context - http://dollarvigilante.com/blog/2013/5/13/in-gold-and-shorting-japanese-government-debt-we-trust.html

And why is this important to ES, US markets and Oil and gold? If one looks at the largest markets on the planet - FX and bonds - the JGB, Yen and UST are the largest stores of wealth, Seismic shifts in JGB or Yen creates a riptide in USD and other assets. This is something Kyle Bass and Jim Chanos have been harping for a while. Along with Hendry himself.

The world is truly a village now!


Last edited by Deucalion; May 14th, 2013 at 12:01 AM. Reason: Added comment
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  #1362 (permalink)
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Tuesday, May 14, 2013


The overnight session was nearly identical to Monday's RTH profile.


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And price was equally excited about exploring both ends.


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  #1363 (permalink)
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Carry trade about to unwind?


Gary,

Is this carry trade round coming to an end? Short WSJ article here. Carry Trade Reaches a Tipping Point - MoneyBeat - WSJ

If so, the dollar will improve. An improved dollar will lead to an oil sell off perhaps down through yearly lower wedge channel. This may be the next (and hopefully) final leg down in PMs and oil.

Ken

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  #1364 (permalink)
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I just entered a trade, waited for confirmation of something (have learned quickly not to fade current bar delta) and so not in the best position... ES is tugging at CL's leash, but CL is sitting down and does not want to budge. And I have to pee... I hate to leave a trade when I first get in.

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11:51am - target 1 hit, then heavy retrace, closed 2nd. I think they are going to try to sweep the stops.


3:15pm edit - Once that 2nd TPO formed I was waiting for another excess and was going to go back in short, thinking they were going to blow stops above 95.20, but I never got it, and then was expecting slow and rotational.

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Last edited by GaryD; May 14th, 2013 at 04:17 PM. Reason: after close, add charts
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  #1365 (permalink)
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I allowed myself to be talked out of contract #2 this morning, and then it would have hit in late in the day. Scalper mentality dragging me into doubt traps. I should hold that 2nd contract more often.

I saw that CL was not wanting to go up but was having such a hard time fighting ES, and as soon as ES gave up an afternoon pullback CL was more than ready.

The cyan trendline broke, but held the close of day still.


I was just looking at the chart after the day, another big day for "K" period, and still thinking to myself why I do not hold trades like this morning's. Scalper mentality is correct, but another thought I had that made me kind of laugh, it's almost like I am saying, "How rude to make me wait until the end of the day! Especially when we knew I was right this morning!" (That would be me and crude oil)

Funny how the mind works. I will file that thought for tomorrow. And try to find a little more patience in my expectations.


Last edited by GaryD; May 14th, 2013 at 05:34 PM.
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  #1366 (permalink)
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COTtrader View Post
Gary,

Is this carry trade round coming to an end? Short WSJ article here. Carry Trade Reaches a Tipping Point - MoneyBeat - WSJ

If so, the dollar will improve. An improved dollar will lead to an oil sell off perhaps down through yearly lower wedge channel. This may be the next (and hopefully) final leg down in PMs and oil.

Ken


You are getting way too deep for a guy like me who quit highschool in 10th grade. lol!!!

I don't know Ken, I will pay attention to some news of the day, like conflict in Iran, etc, but as far as speculation on longer timeframe news I ignore it. If I were a position trader it might be something I should be aware of, but my average hold time has never, ever, been more than a 24 hour period, so whatever long term forces are at play have minimal effect on me. And because the charts will tell the real story, I don't have to try to figure out macroeconomic puzzles. While the big picture does drive markets, the news is not as important as the structure that forms from it. My longer term views come from charts.

Now, I did recently look at the effect of Israel's first Syria strike to see what happened, and it turned out, basically nothing. And so I noted that in my mind. I also looked at the correlation between the DX and CL over the past year, and it could be argued at time, but was not a solid factor. Noted that as well. But even after I do those types of exercises to make sure I am not living in a media vacuum, I always go back to the charts to say, "if this breaks" or "if this holds", etc.


Last edited by GaryD; May 14th, 2013 at 05:13 PM. Reason: typos
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  #1367 (permalink)
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COTtrader View Post

Is this carry trade round coming to an end?
Ken


GaryD View Post
You are getting way too deep for a guy like me who quit highschool in 10th grade. lol!!!


In other words, I prefer books with pictures.

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COTtrader View Post
Gary,

Is this carry trade round coming to an end? Short WSJ article here. Carry Trade Reaches a Tipping Point - MoneyBeat - WSJ

If so, the dollar will improve. An improved dollar will lead to an oil sell off perhaps down through yearly lower wedge channel. This may be the next (and hopefully) final leg down in PMs and oil.

Ken

This is what I got out of that article,

"...Once popular higher-yielding currencies, such as the Australian dollar, are now falling out of favor..."

The Australian dollar can be a leading indicator for commodities. I has been a few year since I looked at a chart, but I am about to.

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  #1369 (permalink)
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Interesting quote from that short piece. FX traders commonly prefer to watch the Aussie instead of the EUR to gauge DX movement.

Ken


GaryD View Post
This is what I got out of that article,

"...Once popular higher-yielding currencies, such as the Australian dollar, are now falling out of favor..."

The Australian dollar can be a leading indicator for commodities. I has been a few year since I looked at a chart, but I am about to.


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  #1370 (permalink)
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COTtrader View Post
Interesting quote from that short piece. FX traders commonly prefer to watch the Aussie instead of the EUR to gauge DX movement.

Ken

When I first started trading I studied with someone who always kept an eye on the AUD as an indicator. I will watch for some correlations, but really have found I do best if I just watch what I am trading.

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