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Like a turtle to his balcony...
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Like a turtle to his balcony...

  #1351 (permalink)
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Sunday, May 12, 2013


This market winds tighter and tighter, still undecided as to a direction from this very long-time-forming symmetrical triangle that has it's origin several years back.


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On the surface it seemed the dollar rising above a key resistance level was enough to create a bias, but price did not quite make it to the intermediate trendline when it seemed to turn on a dime with a ballistic short squeeze into the pit close. While I have some key points drawn, I am not prepared to call any of it support or resistance, and certanly not enough to give a color-coded preference. I am of course still watching that overhead trendline, and have now given in and added a channel top just above that, where this time last week I was not interested in resistance above that.


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The net of Friday's range ended with a strong interday reversal on higher than average volume and with buying taking over. Price did test a tight web of 50/100/200 emas, which I guess could have provided support, but still the move was not anywhere near typical. But that is crude oil, rational is not a word I would give it I guess under any conditions.

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Before the day was over price came right back home to this multi-day balance area. I did notice that a split profile from a single day's session (circled in yellow) also gave some reasoning to establishing "value" at the bottom of Friday's range, but that is purely guesswork on my part. I emailed another trader to see what he thought and never really got the answer I was looking for, so I will file that in my mind and see what happens down the road.

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There was a minor DPTL on the 120m that coincided with the 50% of the current wave as well.

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While spike bottoms are not uncommon in crude, the way that one happened was not something I consider the norm without some major news event, and so far I have not found one. My best guess is still what I thought Friday; that the opportunity presented itself to someone big enough to squeeze shorts until there were no more. But where we go from here? I am not touching that one tonight. The move up says we are taking out the high, but the overhead is still holding.

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Last edited by GaryD; May 12th, 2013 at 05:13 PM.
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If I had the resources, and I had been heavy long oil, and got caught on the wrong side of that currency move, and then saw that in Friday's afternoon volume the major selling seemed to be over and I thought could push price back up with minimal effort to get out at a better location... OR, I had missed the move and wanted a better position...

Not that I won't buy if the chart says buy, I am just sitting here trying to make sense of Friday. There is something missing.

Did the market just get too long? And the DX tipped it over? Or, I am reading too much into it and it is simply a pullback in the trend? Crude sure looks like it wants to take out 98.

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But it has been in this king-sized trading range between 85-100 for years, and really has gone nowhere. "Balancing" in the global view.


Last edited by GaryD; May 12th, 2013 at 06:56 PM.
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Hear ya, Gary. Oil could be the big play in next several years, next to bonds. Over supply doesn't matter. USD will pull the strings that tips the funnel one way or the other.

Ken


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If I had the resources, and I had been heavy long oil, and got caught on the wrong side of that currency move, and then saw that in Friday's afternoon volume the major selling seemed to be over and I thought could push price back up with minimal effort to get out at a better location... OR, I had missed the move and wanted a better position...

Not that I won't buy if the chart says buy, I am just sitting here trying to make sense of Friday. There is something missing.

Did the market just get too long? And the DX tipped it over? Or, I am reading too much into it and it is simply a pullback in the trend? Crude sure looks like it wants to take out 98.

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But it has been in this king-sized trading range between 85-100 for years, and really has gone nowhere. "Balancing" in the global view.


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I have merged the prior profile except for the most recent Friday to define intermediate value and define some structure. I am posting this clean but will then copy the drawings over from the 480m for additional key areas. Not to take a trade, but to decide what my plan will be if xyz happens.


This is the total chart as a standard TPO, but pulling drawings from two other charts. I can turn them on and off quickly that way.

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Monday, May 13, 2013


Today's trade was a long. The market opened down and made it's way through Friday's long single prints into the wide TPO area, which I am reluctant to define as value, but that is where I looked to enter, anticipating a rotational day. I figured as messd up as price action had been the market would be as undecided as I was.

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I entered on the footprint chart, but my signal really came from the 1m VSA, but I neglected to take a screenshot. I thought I did but can't find it. There was delta divergence on the footprint though, highlighted in yellow.

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Another factor was the prior pivot high on the higher timeframe, and the fact that despite all the chaos, the trend remains up (cyan line)

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Something else that really helped me take that trade today was all the replay sim work I have been doing on the weekends.

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Today I completely rearranged my monitor locations before the open, just on a whim. My wife just shook her head as she was leaving for work.

There was a mother squirrel I wanted to see, and, my screens had been in the way. And, my monitors had been to my right, but being right handed I realized moving them to the left allowed me to lean way back and not be so intense on watching every little movement.

I still have a lot of cords to re-route, as I just dragged everything around this morning, but it was worth the move. I accomplished my two daily goals, which were;


1) Squirrel watched.

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2) Traded much more relaxed than I ever have.

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My biggest issue is relaxation, so I consider today a win all around.

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Crude is fighting a new trendline, magenta, but has also more than likely gathered a lower collection of stops around 96.30. The trend remains up, and a magenta break would give an early entry, although right into consolidation, but the more conservative 96.30 could catapult crude through the other two, and maybe even the 3rd around 98.10.




Today was balance and repair, Neutral day type.


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That area between 94.80 and 95.60 was passed by twice, once in ON and the other on Friday. While I did not even try to do a range projection today off Friday's profile, I did just notice there was at least some similarity to the most recent ON session, with the first double prints hitting the 110% mark.

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Last edited by GaryD; May 13th, 2013 at 08:02 PM.
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I am aware of the headlines about the dollar, but they have shared high territory before recently.


Last edited by GaryD; May 13th, 2013 at 11:05 PM.
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I have a new favorite quote from Markets in Profile. Not one that would have been comforting several years ago, but somehow is tonight.


"Ask.com defines cognition with a lot of descriptive words and phrases. Among them are: “a very broad term, which is not easy to describe,” and “mechanisms involved in such process in human beings as perception, attention, learning, thought, concept formation, reading, problem solving, and the development of such behavior.”

True cognitive learning only begins when you realize that you have to transcend the limitations of fixed definitions in order to discover how markets really operate...

On several occasions, we have used the phrase “immersed in the markets.” This is just another way of saying that you have to be deeply, personally involved in the markets before you can begin to discover just how much of your creative energy is required before you can begin to travel down the path toward being an expert trader."

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Price is impulsing higher in the early ON session.


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Price is approaching the minor downward trendline (magenta). The repair in the ETH session resembled a trend day, long and thin, and fading it felt kind of queasy, like I was an idiot. I wound up not posting it live, seemed so amateur to buy into that. What was interesting is that I did take the screenshots to document it, but then after I was in and looked at some conflicting information on the charts decided it was not something I felt as strong about after I was in.

But the ON session showed buying, and having more screen time with two-dimensional charts I defaulted to going with the move.


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Traders sold the extreme high this afternoon, as that is the right thing to do in a balancing market, but the trend is still intact.

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As astonishing as Friday's afternoon move was to me, on a time-based chart it looks just like another up move. And it brought a lot of volume with it. That is why I wanted to fade this morning's move down. It became a reversal set on a 240m, taking out 3 bars deep. Hard core.

Putting things in context, the market was trying to trend down inside an unusual single print. At a minimum it had to reach double prints to consider a buy, at least in my way of digesting things today.


Last edited by GaryD; May 13th, 2013 at 11:00 PM.
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