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Like a turtle to his balcony...
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Like a turtle to his balcony...

  #1331 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
stop to just above value

15 minutes into the session, I would look from the 18:00 open to determine value, and from this perspective, crude is above value. Said another way, it doesn't know what value is yet that early, as it's still looking for it, so maybe better to use what has been established prior to the pit open.

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And if you look at the overnight trade in relation to yesterday, you will see a very clear test above value, below it, and now what appears to be movement above that, after the pit low tested near yesterday's VPOC.

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One more try

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11:13am - been taking a break for the past 15 minutes. Crude is throwing a tantrum and has no idea what it wants to do.

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Seems to be trying to balance slightly higher than the prior range. It broke out, then reversed hard smiliar to yesterday. I am down -48 currently.

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josh View Post
15 minutes into the session, I would look from the 18:00 open to determine value, and from this perspective, crude is above value. Said another way, it doesn't know what value is yet that early, as it's still looking for it, so maybe better to use what has been established prior to the pit open.

And if you look at the overnight trade in relation to yesterday, you will see a very clear test above value, below it, and now what appears to be movement above that, after the pit low tested near yesterday's VPOC.


Well, ok if I look at it that way.. lol!


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josh View Post
15 minutes into the session, I would look from the 18:00 open to determine value, and from this perspective, crude is above value. Said another way, it doesn't know what value is yet that early, as it's still looking for it, so maybe better to use what has been established prior to the pit open.

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And if you look at the overnight trade in relation to yesterday, you will see a very clear test above value, below it, and now what appears to be movement above that, after the pit low tested near yesterday's VPOC.

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They are still having a hard time holding it above the selling zone of the past few days though.

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it ain't over til it's over

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  #1337 (permalink)
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They are still having a hard time holding it above the selling zone of the past few days though.

Now they are -- but this morning, crude opened above overnight value, at the upper end of the prior day's value area, did a test of the overnight VPOC/VWAP, and then started to build value higher above the VWAP 1'st SD. So, a test of yesterday's high was not unreasonable, and my post was simply to say that what you saw as declining value could be viewed as rising value, if you consider trade since yesterday. Neither is right or wrong, but 15 minutes into the session is hard to really define "value" in my opinion, which is just how some people might see it.

Right now, it's a very balanced day with buyers in the 80s, and sellers in the 20s. But this morning, that was not the context, though the location of the open still indicated a relative balance.

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josh View Post
Now they are -- but this morning, crude opened above overnight value, at the upper end of the prior day's value area, did a test of the overnight VPOC/VWAP, and then started to build value higher above the VWAP 1'st SD. So, a test of yesterday's high was not unreasonable, and my post was simply to say that what you saw as declining value could be viewed as rising value, if you consider trade since yesterday. Neither is right or wrong, but 15 minutes into the session is hard to really define "value" in my opinion, which is just how some people might see it.

Right now, it's a very balanced day with buyers in the 80s, and sellers in the 20s. But this morning, that was not the context, though the location of the open still indicated a relative balance.

You should know by now I like to learn things the hard way.

Josh, I do thank you for your comments, and you are far ahead of me in understanding the specifics of value and profile. What I saw this morning was an open in range, and the upuer end of a balancing set since Friday, and I have been watching the RTH session with a lot of focus. But I do see that I was not putting propoer weight on the ETH Vwap, and in that context it was not the best trade decision I could have made.

Tomorrow I get another shot though. Still holding my own regarding wins and losses.

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  #1339 (permalink)
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Tomorrow I get another shot though. Still holding my own regarding wins and losses.

You're almost certainly kicking my ass this week, I'm only so-so and not really in 'da flow.'

You did have a good short this morning, and it looked good to me. But after it comes up to 96.07, taking out the current HOD, and then starts to rotate with a slow grind up, given the other stuff, it may be a dangerous second short. Keep doing good buddy!

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josh View Post
You did have a good short this morning, and it looked good to me. But after it comes up to 96.07, taking out the current HOD, and then starts to rotate with a slow grind up, given the other stuff, it may be a dangerous second short. Keep doing good buddy!

My fix was to rearrange my charts to give equal weight to both ETH and RTH. Actually, I also toned down RTH. While I was observing the interaction of various Vwap components, I had some intense color separation in the RTH. While it may have been good to drive the thought into my head, it is heavy when trading.

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I also am putting a lot of attention on the TPO chart, way more than it needs.

Thanks Josh.


Last edited by GaryD; May 9th, 2013 at 06:36 PM. Reason: added screenshot
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