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Like a turtle to his balcony...


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Like a turtle to his balcony...

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  #1321 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
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GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

And, oil has no idea where it is going, and neither do we.

But, if we think of indicators as Visualization Tools...

Believe. After "Learn", the most powerful word in trading.


I saw that view for awhile before. And when I think that way my trading is far better. But reality has a way of bringing different details to the surface. And so believing becomes confidence, and confidence becomes overconfidence, and overconfidence is a volatile creature that can morph into who knows what at some point.


Balance. Acceptance. Almost taking the perspective of a 5 year old, as someone recently said to me.

Up, down, or sideways. Pick one. As who we are today,

not ignoring that we are progressing... Pick One.

And then manage it. And management is a skill all to itself.

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  #1322 (permalink)
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ETH had been down overnight, eventually. The net effect was down anyway. So the opening drive felt a lot of pressure, which felt like something to me this morning but I never really defined it. And I watched price just vibrate against the underside of ETH Vwap today, as if it did not already know it was going through.

RTH Vwap gave more immediate structuire of the US response. Footprint shows what is happenning in real time, VSA shows how intense that footprint is, delta shows the microscopic view for utilmate refinement... of knowingness... Higher timeframes show major milestones, value is accepted or rejected, up down or sideways.

And if I do become one with the market, what does that make me? Better?

Worse?

And just as I choose the trade, the entry, the exit, the risk and the importance to me, I guess I would choose that too. Better or worse is what I make of it.

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  #1323 (permalink)
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Crude is repairing that center area overnight

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  #1324 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
 
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Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


GaryD View Post
Crude is repairing that center area overnight



Not a bad guess after drinking a little too much with an old friend. Crude's ballistic move up and back down in the prior ON session was a lot to digest for crude traders.




While I had fun, we had a lot of laughs, and it was good to see Rick after so long, this morning I am a teensy bit hungover. Possibly still even under the influence. At 7:50am I am positively not trade ready, may not get there at all today.

ETH and RTH have basically convereged, with ON value nearly identical.

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  #1325 (permalink)
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  #1326 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
 
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Journal note: I traded fantastic hungover. Maybe will try again tonight.

What a wild day, but this study of value, balance, day type, footprint, etc, really allowed me to understand a lot better than I ever have before. This is a day that in the past could eat me alive, but today I was very calm and had good reasoning for trade management, and traded it superbly. 103 ticks on a single contract as of 1:30pm










Trade Location.


Not related to any one indicator, but related to the current conditions. That is where this new study excels over the charts and methods I used before this year.

I did not catch the opening drive up, I did not catch the reversal that crossed the entire range either, I traded after both of those had completed. And every trade was targeted.

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  #1327 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
 
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Silver Dragon View Post
@GaryD

There is a peak in CL which a little further out than your chart is showing. This creates a secondary trend line. If it gets there in the next few weeks the resistance of the upper trend line would be between 103 and 104.

In order to get there it has to get through this resistance area (green box) and break above 102. If it is news driven then I think it will cut through this area like a hot knife on butter otherwise could be choppy road, IMO.

Robert




GaryD View Post
I am not really trying to find resistance above the current trendlines. On a larger scale, CL may have just completed an intermediate ABC pattern, inside a major ABC, at around 86.00 If The B leg breaks, which is around 98.10 on the intermediate, and 99.60 on the major, and if this is W3 on the intermediate time frame, crude could be on the loose.





Sorry Robert. I often have a hard time discussing analysis if someone doesn't post a chart to go with it, but then I got off on some other tangent. This is what I was referring to.




The reason I did not go back any further for the trendline was it put resistance above the B leg of the secondary (magenta). I was going to default to the break instead of looking for resistance beyond that point. Not that it is wrong or right, but that is how I was establishing bias.

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  #1328 (permalink)
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Wednesday 5/8/2013

Today's major news is the EIA. Crude has been bracketing for three ETH sessions since Friday, and maintained that balance in the ON sessions with the exception of the Syria impulse round trip on Sunday night. On the 240m crude remains in an upwave but inside of major consolidation. The heat from the Syria news seems to have dissipated.

Equities hit all-time record highs yesterday.






Watching the footprint chart has become my new favorite thing. And I figured out why I never enjoyed it before. It is not so much what is left in the boxes after the fact as how they form in real time, and that level of observation takes a lot of energy at first as it seems like pure chaos. Once I started to understand it better though, I stopped reading the numbers and more watching the process, and am finding it to reveal more than VSA.


I have recovered from my binge with Rick and woke up an hour earlier than normal today. Yesterday was the first day of steroids for my back, had an xray yesterday, not taking any pain relievers or musclerelaxers, and feeling very good. The sky is clear, the lake is calm, I have my professional trading flip flops on.

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  #1329 (permalink)
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Took 2 contract entry, one off already. Trying to get better at A period.

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  #1330 (permalink)
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stop to just above value


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