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Like a turtle to his balcony...

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  #1201 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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Watching for a buy

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 GaryD 
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greenr View Post
Yesterday was not a doubble distribution day in my eyes

It was just a stright up elongated trend day, no doubble distrubution

If it was a doubble distribution day we would have created 2 balance/value areas which we did not


That is correct, it did basically OTF all day. But I still split out that thin area. It coincides with two areas I would look for lower support on other charts. Just referred to it that way more as I was splitting the day between E and F.

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 GaryD 
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@Silver Dragon, back to the "is it working" question, today it has helped me create a strategy on the day. Price came into major resistance and for some reason I guessed "neutral" or "normal" even, although I am still waiting for a break.

I have the 6 range open today also, with the ETH Vwap. Look at that whipsaw mess. That is what I used to try to trade of of, every day. Some days it worked great, others I got chopped to pieces.




Today I knew better and my trades have been fades. Won't always work, I know, but it at least gave me a firm direction on the day. And that is why I am dealing with losing more often right now. To come out the other side wiser and with better consistency. Stay posted...

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 GaryD 
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 GaryD 
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Value is following price. News of Syria I believe...

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 GaryD 
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I had a feeling something was off when volume started to build, but still got stopped out. But what a crazy volume profile, where value kept developing then moving higher, then developing...

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 GaryD 
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News or fake news got me twice this week.

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 GaryD 
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My journal link takes me to a page where I list things that I need to include, so that I see it first whenever I open it. One is things about myself.

I still believe, had it not been for the news about Syria, that today was to be rotational, but that is theory. What I do know, is that when it took off and could not even get to the 1.5+SD, I sat here like a deer in the headlights. My book education says "buy", but I couldn't do it without a pullback, and waited, and waited, and waited...

I have seen a couple geopolitical perceived risk rallies. There was Libya, that I remember becuase I thought to myself as I saw the news on the TV at the gym, that I should run home and buy crude. I can't recall what was the trigger before that, but something was in my memory that caused me to feel that way. And so, I would think that on the third time I would just go in head first.

But, I didn't.

I just watched it take out high after high after high.





The good news, unlike times past... I DID NOT TRY TO SHORT IT. HOORAY FOR ME!!!!

( And I will take that as a win too. )


But still, I am very disappointed with myself for being frozen and not even trying to ride that move. It does not happen that often is my guess why. But I "knew" better. And could not pull the trigger. And having pulled the trigger at far worse moments it amazes me how hard that was.

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 GaryD 
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 greenr 
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Why Syria?

Oil tops $93 for highest close in over two weeks - Futures Movers - MarketWatch

" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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 GaryD 
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Syria is an oil producing country. Not a huge contributor, but the production numbers are similar to Libya, and I am assuming you watched what that did to prices. Whenever there is even the threat of something that could disrupt oil supply, (think Iran) it seems to drive the oil futures market batty.

Google it, I am betting there is a news site that has the real reason behind that move. That was not just a "the economy is great" rally. That was, "OMG what if we can never buy this low again, the oil supply is in danger, traders climbing over each other", aka WTI-WTF.

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 GaryD 
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UPDATE 7-Oil gains on Syria, commods rally; Brent premium under $10 | Reuters

Oil price jumps on Syria weapons report | News.com.au

https://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/afp/130425/oil-price-jumps-syria-chemical-weapons-report

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 greenr 
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Nice i couldnt find any thing on the site i look at for some reason :-/

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 GaryD 
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Michael Korn, president of Skokie Energy in Princeton, New Jersey, referring to the defense secretary's comments on Syria,"...the geopolitical dimension to the market trumps any macroeconomic data".

Makes little sense, but futures are all about what could happen. And it seems speculators have a way of squeezing every last tick out of fear when in comes to that part of the world.

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 GaryD 
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greenr View Post
Nice i couldnt find any thing on the site i look at for some reason :-/


Maybe you guys are less into hype over there. In the US we prefer that over reality.

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 GaryD 
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Syria is a small player in the oil market, but so is Libya and from memory that drove prices $20 +/- before it was all over. There seems to be a recurring concern that problems in that area might spread, and Syria has some major neighbors when it comes to oil production.

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 GaryD 
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It was February 2011.

Barack Obama tells Gaddafi: Libya violence must stop | World news | The Guardian






Not suggesting anything about what the price of oil might do. You never know. But this is what it is capable of.

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 GaryD 
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Per Wikipedia

Attached Thumbnails
Like a turtle to his balcony...-oil-production-copy.pdf  
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 GaryD 
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Within the past week or so, crude had attempted a W5, with W2 being a RSP.

There was one solitary profile bar between gaps on both ends that hovered above and represented W3, showing the move had more room to go down, but then settled into a 6-7 day balance as it fought into the overhead responsive selling.

Crude then came up off the failed W5, kept going in and out of key W4 resistance shaded in the chart below, and then broke out.

It started with an open out of range where resistance had been broken through in the ON session, and had come back. That was the background for the pit open in the chart below, which was a stong opening drive, and the market one timeframed higher the rest of the day.


This chart is RTH only. Full sessions are in the next post.



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Pulling the drawings from the 120m onto the TPO chart.



That was the day before this one.



Today I was expecting a possble rotational day, and then read something from Stanton Analytics where they were too, and my mind was made up. It worked until it didn't.

The way it went down; There was another key resistance level that had stopped the prior day's move up, a NPOC slowed it down, but it worked it's way up to the edge of deep resistance, shaded in red in the chart above.

Price opened today with a Open Test Drive (2TPO), and then came down hard... but never could make it into yesterday's value.


A 3rd hit to the low 2SD was a LL, but it had RSI divergence (and the Delta Divergence signal fired right at the best possible entry today.)


I tried to fade the upper end again when it started to form some excess, but then the excess never came.

A new period started after I had only been in a few minutes. And because of that I kind of tried to ignore it, it was a fluke. "Stay in the trade". I said to myself. If I am going to learn something new I have to have patience and let it work.


My stop hit, price ran higher for a small break, and then pulled back to the breaking point. Why I did not go long there, I do not know. Just was "not ready for that" is the best I can come up with.

It had something to do with the market not acting "normal", whatever that is. But it seemed like an unusual move.

Then after it had started an impusle move higher, or better maybe, "initiative buying", it rode the upper 2SD, pegged to it.

I then heard of the news about Syria possibly using chemical weapons and talk of US response. OK, "geopolitical event", I thought. So then, I tried to get myself into impulse mode and watched for a "good" entry. I defined that today as a pullback to value. Value didn't stand a chance...


Bummed. Too conservative on some entries and too bold on others, and who knows why.

But I at least was wanting some pullback. Instead, I should have entered on a buy stop, or just hit a decent footprint bar and determined my risk before?

I watched it the rest of the way.


And this is what it looked like. Looks easy as hell now. Funny how that happens more often than makes sense.


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 GaryD 
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RTH is separate profile from ON, and this is after everything.

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 GaryD 
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And so, tonight I erased every drawing on the 120m, and started over.

I did not feel like going through it all from top to bottom tonight. I did a simple look at basic areas of where to buy. A few lines here and there, but saw those other charts on the screen and that was bothering me, so I decided to go through that instead.

And I see another thing now more clearly about why I am trying to get out of scalping. Scalping is all about timing and entry and reading the market, but not so much about exits. I know where to get in many times, where to get out is what I want to know more about. And that is why I am studying value and profile.

It is not just some wave or projection, it is allowing the market to say where, letting it decide what type of trade it will be even. Who am I to decide in advance where I will exit a trade, without the market showing me where first?

I saw it try to say to me today that my fade of the top lost its excess, but I knew better. "I am practicing holding a trade longer" I thought. But that thinking got in the way of listening.

Then when it broke, if key resistance does not hold, that is a sign. That is what I am there for, to watch for those clues. But I was thinking about how that fit into profile and how long to expect a neutral day. I do not think it was past 100% of initial balance yet, so maybe it was just reaching? The limit for expecting a neutral day is that wide. Although today had a rather extended A period.

And then when I caught up, maybe only 30m later? I had to switch modes so quick and never got a chance to decide where to enter. Or rather, did not have a clear plan for that event. And really, the moment had passed, assuming I would have expected it. But expecting anything at any moment is a hard game to play at times.

The break was the market trying to tell me something, I was listening to my ideas of what was about to happen. I cannot run on instinct when I am learning something new, there are too many processes in the way, too many questions, too much checking myself against three books that currently lay on my drafting table, each opened to a different section for quick reference when something happens that I need a refresher on. 1000 pages... lol. Crammed half of it down already.

And when my instinct does kick in, it is often about a rapid entry. How to scalp. I have let so many 12-15-20 tick scalps go over the past week or two. At least one or two a day that I have allowed to come back on me. That adds up at the end of the week.


So I am tired, and ranting, and tomorrow is Friday, and I am headed into it with hidden revenge all over the place. Still mostly hidden, I am guessing. Just like charts, so much easier to see it after the fact.

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 Big Mike 
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@GaryD,

If I can give some advice...

a) Slow down. Way down. This thread is 3 months old and you've posted over 1,000 times, at a rate of 11 posts per day. Wouldn't you be able to better organize your thoughts if you were making just a 2-3 posts per day?

b) Simple is better. Your new system is complex and is therefore prone to error much more than a simpler system.

c) I personally feel if you are taking more than 2 trades a day, you are over trading. Step back, look at larger charts, trade smaller size and bigger time frames. Give your trade room to work.

Mike

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 GaryD 
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Big Mike View Post
@GaryD,

If I can give some advice...

a) Slow down. Way down. This thread is 3 months old and you've posted over 1,000 times, at a rate of 11 posts per day. Wouldn't you be able to better organize your thoughts if you were making just a 2-3 posts per day?

b) Simple is better. Your new system is complex and is therefore prone to error much more than a simpler system.

c) I personally feel if you are taking more than 2 trades a day, you are over trading. Step back, look at larger charts, trade smaller size and bigger time frames. Give your trade room to work.

Mike

a) I do use it as a scratch pad and a personal chat room somewhat, but yes you are probably right.
b) My hope is to bring it all back together into one comprehensive approach.
c) Understood.

Thanks Mike.

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 greenr 
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GaryD View Post
a) I do use it as a scratch pad and a personal chat room somewhat, but yes you are probably right.
b) My hope is to bring it all back together into one comprehensive approach.
c) Understood.

Thanks Mike.

I think you should either carry on with your Fib analysis

Or forget about the past completely and move forward with your new education

You cant use both, its just confusing and will skew your new view of the markets


Iv seen you try use fixed rules and views with the MP, that does not work in my opinion

Yes we can review old patterns to get a grip on what will most likely happen with new similar patters

The whole point in MP etc is using ref points and market generated information

along with "THE AUCTION PROCESS" understanding......price is a advertising tool

So Once you have formed a view......you watch how the market is reacting

its always going to be a discretionary approach and making it mechanical does not work



For example....the other day when we have the open gap above

Yes, excellent place to try and short, i did. But the market just was not reacting (short sellers weren’t there)

Soon as i see this, we were excepting higher prices

I changed my view and went with the order flow



Also Jim has mentioned may times....this stuff is complicated and takes time to drum in to make things intuitive

Even the most excellent brains can take minimum a year to go through this process

Im over 6-7 month in and still finding things hard......but things are getting better every day and every market cycle



But...if your not viewing things the correct way and your throwing old stuff back up and mixing view, every thing will take twice as long to establish the correct brain connections to view this stuff in the correct context as things unfold in live markets

" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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 GaryD 
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greenr View Post
I think you should either carry on with your Fib analysis

Or forget about the past completely and move forward with your new education

You cant use both, its just confusing and will skew your new view of the markets


92




There is a combination possible. It just may take me awhile.

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 GaryD 
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I traded to myself today, with one exception where I skyped Ryan about a key pivot. Not that he needed it, but I figured he was short and I saw something I felt very strong about. I hated to even make a suggestion about someone else's trade, but every once and awhile it all comes together and I could not stop myself from saying something. Trying to watch out for him as a friend. Mother hen, maybe.

I did take notes on a sheet of paper about current wave, current trend, key levels, news, open type, etc. Got knocked around a few times this morning and took a break. Set an alarm in Sierra for two areas and walked away.

My star trade of the day was a long in CL at 92 something, right into the face of the retest. Those entries always make me uncomfortable, but it was either going to be right, or wrong but quick. Today it was right.

I had a bonus short into the last few minutes of ES. After watching the CL pit close and then seeing ES try to repeat the pattern, I went one contract. up around the HOD.

I pulled out the 6-range chart just because someone asked me about the difference in what I am studying and what I used to trade. I kept it up for a day, just curious, but am not using it for anything, not even confirmation. But, I did try it today with just an ETH Vwap, and liked it a lot. The motion of a 6-range is familiar to me. I replaced the 5m with it for the day and may keep it that way.

The 1mVSA was reduced to 50% the window size this week also, just still in the weaning off stage, as I move into using the footprint volume and delta instead.

The fibs I am still using, and do not expect to discontinue any time soon, if I do at all. They provide additional context, just like watching weekly or monthly vwap, or daily MAs, or increasing/decreasing volume.

I am still a bit irritated about not reading that move up yesterday, but did not experience any issues with it today as I thought I might. Maybe because I expressed it in advance and was aware of it. I got the hint from reading something recently about how acknowledging fear can keep you focused. A Trader Psyches email.

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 lancelottrader 
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If tomorow you found out..for some bizarre reason..that the only possible option for supporting yourself was entirely through your trading...how would you trade ? Would you stick with what you're doing now..or would you review what used to work well for yourself and return to that ?
I have had to face that question and it may have been the best thing that ever happened to me.

Deadlines = Forced to find something that works.

Unlimited timetable= constant experimentation. (Most traders)

Failure is not an option
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 GaryD 
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greenr View Post


Iv seen you try use fixed rules and views with the MP, that does not work in my opinion

Yes we can review old patterns to get a grip on what will most likely happen with new similar patters

The whole point in MP etc is using ref points and market generated information

along with "THE AUCTION PROCESS" understanding......price is a advertising tool

So Once you have formed a view......you watch how the market is reacting

its always going to be a discretionary approach and making it mechanical does not work



For example....the other day when we have the open gap above

Yes, excellent place to try and short, i did. But the market just was not reacting (short sellers weren’t there)

Soon as i see this, we were excepting higher prices

I changed my view and went with the order flow



Also Jim has mentioned may times....this stuff is complicated and takes time to drum in to make things intuitive

Even the most excellent brains can take minimum a year to go through this process

Im over 6-7 month in and still finding things hard......but things are getting better every day and every market cycle



I am not trying to blend old with new. Some charts were only up because the topic of what I used to watch came up. But live, I have two views of MP (the current day with two days prior, and a longer view), and ETH and RTH vwap, a footprint, and 1mVSA. I am still kind of feeling my way into the value thing. Moving things around. making things larger or smaller depending on what I am trying to focus on for the week, or what I read over the weekend. So yes, things may move around, but I am keeping it in the same direction; value.

You may see a lot of confusion because I post a lot of it, very open about some things that maybe I should not be. And I am wrong about this new study way more often that I would like to be, and of course it is frustrating, but you have heard my voice recently, I am not stressed. It is natural to not enjoy falling down, but I am not getting hurt.

I am not worried about it. I don't have a deadline anymore. Setting one for myself last year was way off course and put pressure on myself that I never should have. Something you need to stay aware of too, my friend.

Denise Schull shared a story of skiing down a tough run and how she related it to trading, and it had to do with embracing the fear. I am trying to do that more and more, and also embracing frustration somewhat as well. It makes me remember better for the next time, allows me to get it out instead of hanging out inside waiting to take it out on the market. Let's me put it in order and read it, which causes me to think differently about it. Sometimes I am embarrased by it, sometimes i feel less upset with myself as I can understand better. Sometimes it is a kick in the ass that I need.

Ended the week down. And has nothing to do with anything important really. It's Friday, I have some reading to do, and life is good.


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 GaryD 
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lancelottrader View Post
If tomorow you found out..for some bizarre reason..that the only possible option for supporting yourself was entirely through your trading...how would you trade ? Would you stick with what you're doing now..or would you review what used to work well for yourself and return to that ?
I have had to face that question and it may have been the best thing that ever happened to me.

Deadlines = Forced to find something that works.

Unlimited timetable= constant experimentation. (Most traders)



Well, I have not thought of it that way recently. That feeling is how I learned to scalp in the first place, and it did work good for me for awhile. The idea was to keep my targets within range of something that happens with such frequency that I am never worried about finding the next opportunity. While I learned to see the market at a microscopic level, sometimes that is not all I need to see. And what I did felt so intense that the pressure got to be too much for me. And somehow, never have completely figured that one out and really am not trying, one fateful day I got trigger happy and scalped myself out of trading for a few months.

What I did see was a huge disconnect between the trader that scalped and the trader that watched 120m and higher charts. I used to comment often about how I wished I could blend the two but had a hard time doing it. I do think I have learned why; as a scalper timing and speed is everything, and I see the $200 I 'could have had" come and go over and over as I wait for a big wave to complete. From a risk to reward perspective, there is no comparison, and I also used to observe that I would prefer to win 30% of the time at a bigger win to loss than 70% of the time scalping.

A recent example, I was watching for a major H&S pattern in CL recently, commented here about my pretend swing entries. There were two of them, two different days, with a target at 88.50. That worked out great, and my heat was maybe 30 ticks on a 650 tick move? I would take 20% win rate.



GaryD View Post
If I was a swing trader, this is where I would be. I am going to pretend I still am and see how that works.



The analysis I do on a larger timeframe is useful, but I never really take full advantage of it. And the reason is, other than having some understanding of patterns I really do not understand the markets in the way that I wish I did. I don't necessarily want the money right now, I went that path already.


GaryD View Post
I want to be a trader. Not necessarly rich. I like the concept. And to do that there are some things I need to change. I am working on them.

Why I like the concept I may never know. I don't believe it really matters. If I do what I enjoy, and I am happy, why would I try to change that?



And what I saw about market profile and the perception of value is a deeper look inside why markets do what they do. Not exactly in the 1000 pages of study, or in rules about balance, range, excess, etc, but combine it all and you start to have this picture of a holistic approach.

I am not there yet, but it makes far more sense to me than all of the other things I have ever studied. Fib lines, (and I know @greenr will cringe), are still something I want to keep. They are areas of interest. Not a trading methodology. For example, if one breaks, that could lend insight into a developing day. Same if one is approaching, that could be cause to tighten stops. Keeping a stop in value just because is a good rule, but there are times to break rules. And those times are when the picture as a whole says something different. There is no way in the world I could ever see the whole picture while scalping. They are two completely different areas of focus.

So, if I had to trade to survive, today, I would have to choose scalping, but I may not get a trade every day, and I would have to keep my eyes glued to every little flutter for hours until it was time. Which is not fun, is not relaxing, or enjoyable, wears me out. Burns me out. And is not a confidence builder.

But, I don't have that requirement right now, and my path is to understand more about WHY, WHEN, WHERE, HOW FAR. Allow the market to do it's thing, and undertstand it enough to feel comfortable with that.

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 GaryD 
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Big Mike View Post
@GaryD,


a) Slow down. Way down. This thread is 3 months old and you've posted over 1,000 times, at a rate of 11 posts per day. Wouldn't you be able to better organize your thoughts if you were making just a 2-3 posts per day?

Mike

Only 3 posts today. Or, well it was 3 until this one, dammit. Maybe Monday...

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 GaryD 
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In response to some thoughts that I have gone into some mix of a trading chaos of indicators and styles, actually it is much simpler than that. I copied my screen layout and gave some explanation to the order and logic of it. I did bring back a 6-range, just because I appreciate what it shows inside a time bar, but the only things from the past are long term S/R levels, and 1 min VSA. Other than that, it is all about value.

The 6-range indicators I posted for a reply to @Silver Dragon I actually made on the spot.

Attached Thumbnails
Like a turtle to his balcony...-charts-copy.pdf  
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 GaryD 
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Traded the month of December 2012 on replay using nothing but TPOs. Came out 56% wins, $900.00 profit before commissions. Did not follw the rules exactly.

GREAT tool in Sierra, speed up play, step forward and back, blends backtesting with live feel. At a speed of 22 I can do a day every 15 minutes. Never even thought of this before, mostly because that speed does not allow absorbtion using many charts, but with TPOs, in/out range, in/out balnce, open type... very entertaining and speeds the learning process.

Trading more size too, 3 contract entry, peel off risk as it goes, max 3x to 9 contracts. Add in on winners on pullbacks, sclae out of losers.

Going to add Vwap as a stop management tool. Doing January and February now.

I added a clock to monitor market time, get to 10m in and pause, is there a trade? Get to B period, now? And so forth.





To make sure I don't "cheat", I collapse the window, enter a week's range, click "Go To Begining", hit start, and watch one day unfold with no trades. next day, GO.

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 GaryD 
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And another cool thing about it, I have a max down, and when it hits I have to just watch the rest of the day, and stlll try to learn from it. In other words, I get to practice losing at the same time. Feeling it, even slow down the speed some and rub it in!

I am laughing. Doors open, wind blowing in off the lake, jamming some new music in my Recently Added folder. Can't think of anything I'd rather do right now.

Fished early in the morning, read, chores, fixed the refrigerator, and now just chilling. And I picked this.

When I was a musician I would often play all day when I could. One Thanksgiving I recorded from the time I woke up until the time I went to bed. Wrote a song for my friend Tuna Can. For some reason I can get lost in things like this. I thought it was normal, but today, different than when I was a kid, they define things like antisocial behavior and add it to a list of possibles, like autism, ADD, Asbergers...

Maybe that is also part f the 11 posts a day thing.

Absolutely they are connected. Not that it is a bad thing. I choose it. We all choose more than we admit. For some crazy reason our minds prefer that we are victims, for some reason is othen an easer role to play.

The winning or losing, I choose it, by how I approach it.

Holding winners and dropping losers is an example.

Whether it feels like work or feels fun is another. (@greenr)


And the topic has come up recently about "Catching Big Waves" I honestly just got cold chills this second.

Somewhere in that behemoth is something that went "click". I think I know what, not ready to look yet. But it headed south somewhere after a great longterm run, the kind where I thought I was over the final hump.

Overconfidence is what got me, I know that. And I know I started to realize that chronologically around the time I made some comment about taking Market Wizards to the beach, and I studied quotes about fear. I had tasted it again pretty hard by then. Some day I will go back.


And so, the reason I moved on from whatever I knew before; charts, setups, everything.

All methods of analyzing the market are to show similar things;

1) up or down
2) what is "Higher probability"

I get the gist of trading, and a certain period T3, or Dondhian Channel, or fib ratio, or wave pattern, or MACD, or any other of the infinite number of indicators alone, or even in combination... without comprehension... is not even the piss after drinking from the Holy Grail.

Indicators themselves do not matter, other than they are what I was used to seeing. And visuals are easy to start over with. Motion has not changed since the last time I was here, and I have some new lessons to learn. Wipe the chart clean, as I have done thousands of times with SR calculation, and start over.

MP revolves around RISK, how to define it, when to press it, where to get in, out, visually. And the indicators I can get used to.

So yes, I have chosen a style that does not do near as well, and I am not wanting to let go of knowing certain major inflection points. @greener, you know I would never Skype you about getting out of a trade that I only thought you might be in, unless I felt about as strong as it gets for me. And that is from scalping skills, believe it or not, more than fibs.

This time I wanted something that fit my personality. And a played with a lot of new indicators, after that however many month break I took. And traded in sim with whatever I wanted for the day.

Then I read something by @Private Banker, and right after talked to @greenr, and between the two I found what would make me comfortable. Not a set of indicators, harmony with a way I already lookded at the market but did not have words to organize it with.




______________________________________________________



The footprint will replace my 1m VSA eventually. Same theory, tougher for me to read but getting better.

The profile will replace the fibs. Shows the same types of things, all we really want to know is where the key areas are, right?

And decided to do it and love it, so I started this new thread where I get goofy sometimes, downright strage others. I was a handful in my HS and college days. And don't get many places in the world to do it anymore at 44 to be 45. But a year ago or so, when @Big Mike said use discretion and keep it adult, it opened a venue for me.

I was angry and working myself to death, had just recently lost everything and not even out of it yet. That is where the need for survival came from, why I could not allow myself to give up.

And it served a purpose.

But now I just really want to be a trader. I am making money, very decent money without trading. So I don't care so much if this is not a great style for me yet. I will go to sim if needed. And venting frustrations feels good and allows me to read it and think about it, so that they don't go back into storage to surface again someday. I do walk when I get a taste of hidden revenge in my mouth. No one has to push me away these days.


That floodgate just opened after thinking how good it felt to be here sim trading. These type of posts release a lot of pressure. And was the extended answer to several questions recently from @Silver Dragon, @lancelottrader, maybe others. Probably others who have thought it but not said anything.

And I post this stuff the same reason I started a thread the first time; it helps me, and if I can share something with someone else about some of the struggles, wins, losses, tricks and discoveries, personal lessons, life lessons, why not?

Here is the background behind my infatuation with MP. I never did understand the market the way "trained" traders do. I was an outsider on a mission and learned to trade by "street smarts". And that is an edge, no doubt. But knowing what the trained guys are doing never hurts. I thought before I did not need that... lol!!!

It is a LOT of work and study and discipline and patience. So? What else should I do? If I enjoy it, why does it matter? Fishing isn't all fun and games either. A day offshore was easily $500.00 of fuel, plus ice, plus bait, plus drinks, plus boat depreciation, insurance, maintenance, repairs... Fish I caught myself probably averaged $300.00 a pound. And I had to clean it, cook it, and clean the boat. Trading is kind of like that.

The world's best fisherman earned it. Who catches the most fish?



The guy who goes fishing the most.



Oh, and is very serious about it.

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 GaryD 
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The quote below started from a private message from a trader who I will keep anonymous. Who it is from does not really matter, as it applies to all traders at many different levels.

I changed the wording to summarize it into it's basic question; How does one learn to trade?.



Quoting 

GaryD, I need your help.

I have spent 1 year trading and working on mind training, but and I am struggling to find a method with an edge.

I do not know where I can learn, who to trust, or even which theories to follow.



The best answers I could give you are ones you will most likely forget sooner than you should. I am guessing that because I did, and I would bet nearly all traders do it. We want to jump in and start making some money.

But the best truthful summary I can give you; there is no single source, and it takes a long time.

Becoming a trader is like becoming brain surgeon. There is no 2-year degree option. I am in my 6th year of trading. The guys on futures.io (formerly BMT) who are the best have been at it longer than I have, some of them 15-20 years, or more.

To help understand why it takes so much work, consider this. Trading is, without question, the largest "business" in the world. More money changes hands on the exchanges than anywhere else. And because of that, it draws the toughest, most competitive, most brilliant minds in the world. And they do not plan to give up easily.

Where to start? It does not hurt to understand many aspects of trading. I have over 30 trading books, including wave structure, psychology, candlesticks, order flow, chart patterns, position sizing, and most recently market profile. It all boils down to up, down, or sideways, and all theories have some beneficial information that shows that. But the best they can do is show what happened in the past. It is always up to you as the trader to make a decision what to do with the information.

One specific question was regarding where buyers and sellers are. They tend to gather around key price levels. Scale out the view of a chart and look for major structure. Watch a small timeframe volume indicator, I use a 1m chart, which over time will help you confirm which areas are holding the most buyers and sellers. But even then, knowing where they will be does not always help determine which direction the market will go from there.

I often post key levels here for crude oil and share whatever I learn as I go, and many other traders here post similar information for other markets and from their experience.

To make clear that this is an ongoing process, I practiced this weekend trading over 60 days of charts at a speed of one RTH session every 7.5 minutes, just watching market profile charts and Vwap. And I am just now drinking coffee this Sunday morning getting ready to do another 30 days of replay trading, and then probably read 100 pages more on market profile.

Regarding signing up for a trading education, many of the places that sell trading educations are in the business of selling trading educations. Not that some don't provide good information, many do, but a part of that business model requires that they bring in new business. The marketing is designed to lure you with hype and encouragement. They sell the dream, and there are a lot of buyers.

My advice would be to keep your education costs low by watching as many of the free webinars on futures.io (formerly BMT) as you can stand, buying some books for $30 or less a piece (my collection cost less than $1,000.00), and start experimenting with the things you are learning by trading them in simulation. The real education expense will be high enough when you go live.

I wish there were a connect-the-dots method that worked, but I have not found one. You have to take it all in, and then use your own judgement. And then know what you know well enough, and have watched it work enough times, that you begin to trust your own judgement. Get comfortable because it is a long journey. That does not mean you won't make it, but the sooner you accept that fact the easier it will be.

Make the decision that is what you are going to do, start taking it in one step at a time. Relax because the opportunity is there every single day and will wait for you. Open yourself up to trading being something other than what it appears to be. Roll up your sleeves, get in there and start studying.

Good luck, keep at it. I am here if you have trouble with something specific and will often respond with charts and comments. Most likely, anyone here who posts regulary will do the same.

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 GaryD 
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Crude came out of the gate strong with what appeared as an Opening Drive, tested the excess of Thursday, and then, reversed. I was expecting a short around the retest of the high side of ETH Vwap, but got stopped out at -13. The W4 zone held on Friday around 92, and has set the stage for a W5.


Meanwhile, having opened in range and only marginally out of value, price just hit 90% of Friday's range, so I am not currently interested in trading continuation as an impulse move. I may trade a pullback to ETH 1SD, but monitoring ES for a potential DT.








EDIT: Out. Bought 94.02 after buyer absorbtion right on 1SD to the tick, took 20 ticks and flat. Still not sure about ES, may regret the early exit.

Plus, I am on pain medication today, feeling very sleepy. Back in green and cautious.




I traded so many TPO simulations this weekened that the 90% bugs me, and I was negative and wanted a clean slate.

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 GaryD 
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weak so far

well, now that I am posting there is a 1k bar....but not absorbtion yet

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 GaryD 
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ES could take the near term high and still be a double top with the prior major.




Just added the Clock indicator to every chart. Noticed that it will make things a lot easier for me as I review the journal.

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 GaryD 
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Yeah, still falling off.





Price is being accepted here, going to view E period as excess and anticipating rotation from here out, with upward bias but we could have an up close and still not go anywhere. And my head is very foggy.




May watch again in an hour, but not interested in this as it sits.

Net +7

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 GaryD 
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GaryD View Post
ES could take the near term high and still be a double top with the prior major.



.


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 GaryD 
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ES did not break the major high





And while CL did surpass E period, after the RTH close it pulled back inside it to 94.11. It was going to be tough going into K with ES threatening that break. The HOD was within 10% of prior range, but 110%, not 90%.





Stayed out of CL the rest of the day, Bought ES in the afternoon pullback and took .75 points from, hit my trailing stop after being up 2.00. I was guessing it would at least blow the HOD by a tick, but I guess at record highs that was more wishful thinking.

Fighting all day to stay awake. Can barely move. Not a good day to trade hard.

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 GaryD 
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Yesterday's watch zone did wind up providing resistance, but it was hard to trade. Price held the high side of it all the way into the RTH close, and did not reject out until pre-open this morning. That scenario is so familiar to me by now that I am seeing why I get less benefit from SR calculation than I would like, and also why MP may possibly provide a better way to determine direction on the fly.

I was also watching for an ES DT yesterday, and so far we have it, with price not only refusing to break the major high but also ON motion coming back below the local high. But again, the benefit of the analysis was none yesterday, and I actually tried to go long in the PM pullback as I assumed it would blow on low volume.






I watched as much aof a webinar as I could on reading order flow. Phone kept ringing, but plan to attend the 2-day free access to see what else I can pick up about it. I put a small DOM up against the footprint to follow along with the webinar content.


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 GaryD 
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Nailed this morning. that's all I have to say. And because of that, I quit today. Adrenaline, or testosterone, or dopamine, or whatever hypnotic cocktail comes from that experience, and I know that by now, says my bonus should be an early day.


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 GaryD 
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Here is what happened. The ES failed yesterday and had pulled back below the local top. ES opened slightly up, and then got hammered. Meanwhile, CL had an opening drive higher, coming off yesterday's TPO POC. I could see heavy absorbtion as CL tried to break above the initial balance, and saw tremendous thrust thrown at trying to go higher but just kept getting soaked up. I went short. It gave me about 10m to make sure that is what I wanted, and buyers were hitting every few ticks of a pullback, and I dropped the trade once thinking I would re-enter at TPOs in B above the IB, but then it finally gave, I jumped back on, aimed for the ETH low, and pressed harder as it went, dragging my stop in as it moved.

I did peel off most of the trade early, but not sure anymore if that is a bad thing. I used to think so and would get frustrated with myself, but I am statring to believe that is not fair criticism of myself.

And the small victory this morning was pressing it. That is something I almost never do, but given the background for today it just felt right. Even the few times I have pressed before, it did not feel right, it felt scary. Today I just did it and thought it was right. By the time I added I was positive, and I never risked losing anything but what I was just in, so there was no risk really after the initial move.

---------------------------------------------------------

Now maybe 30 minutes later, CL is still moving down. I had considered a target of 93.10, just above the NPOC and barely above 90% range from yesterday. And just sighed as I typed that. As excited as I was with my single trade, there was much more potential in it.

Gives me something to think about and work on, but that will come. If it does make it there it will still be a victory for understanding. And without understanding I can't build confidence.

The win this morning comes from something I have seen before, and could not say when, or how many times.

And what I did, something I have been working out in my head for a very long time now, is reverse something I did wrong in the past. I had a trade go against me and added into it, it came back to about BE but I held, and it went against me more so I added in, did not get to BE, against me more, added in... HUGE loser. And I have wondered so many times what that was and why it is so easy to do in a losing trade, and never works that way in a winning trade. I thought, "do the opposite". And that thought has been trying to manifest but couldn't for so long. And even today it was not the same, it was forced behavior. But I was CALM enough and kept focusing on what my intent was, accepted that.

I keep adding to this trying to hold onto that thought and find it more.

Is it, "add in, see if I can get it to be a small loser"?

I will add some charts later. No, the charts do not matter in this case. It was a divergence in market correlation, with a major DT in ES, and huge absorbtion. That was the setup. What matters is digging into that thought and is it, "add in, see if I can get it to be a small loser"? That sounds nuts. But it is the opposite of adding to a loser, the goal in that case being to get it back to a small win.

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 GaryD 
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I am contemplating a long in the green zone, but value is following price... And not sure what I mean bby that yet in terms of bias... as it is constantly a moving target.

We rejected yesterday's low with some force, and shape is wedging. ES has blown all morning shorts away. RTH core value keeps getting rejected as well. Not a very clean setup.

There was a Breaking News conference with Obama about Syria, and that caused a lot of upward pressure, but it got smacked back down twice already, even as ES has taken out the IB high.


ES is at a great Longterm short location...


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 Deucalion 
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GaryD View Post
...............ES is at a great Longterm short location...

Whoa! Easy there - ES has been bouncing one EW wave level to another with deadly accuracy. Major W4 was hit this morning, that's why clowns shorting that got killed. A pause maybe in the works, but typical impulsive targets are higher (not to mention an extension). Dangerous game to play - correlating ES with CL, but ya already knew that


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 GaryD 
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closed 93.61. Watching footprint. Probably a wrong exit, but it's a win, I waited for my entry, and was not going to take another anyway.


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 GaryD 
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Deucalion View Post
Whoa! Easy there - ES has been bouncing one EW wave level to another with deadly accuracy. Major W4 was hit this morning, that's why clowns shorting that got killed. A pause maybe in the works, but typical impulsive targets are higher (not to mention an extension). Dangerous game to play - correlating ES with CL, but ya already knew that



I am saying from a 1 out of 4 with 10x RR.

Long Term is not a game I play yet. You are the ES man far more than I am. Just trying to decide if I kept at it today in CL after I told myself not to. NEVER listen ot me in ES, I am using it for something completely different 90% of the time.

As of this moment, they broke the local high 1591 something, but I would still sell ES for a multi-day hold, IF I sold ES for multi-day holds. And figure my odds 30% with a target...

I don't know really, not thinking about it with any sense of reality, but certainly down there some.

But, you gotta admit, good entry call on CL

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Major W4 was hit this morning,

Make this easier for me, where do you see W5 for ES? I looked, but do not see in the timeframes I am looking at.

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 GaryD 
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But, you gotta admit, good entry call on CL



@Deucalion, if you promise not to tell anyone I will let you in on a secret. I went TIGHT, and got hit twice before it took.





A couple things I noticed while studying this for the next time.

1) If I had not already been hesitant to trade again, my stop would have been a lot further out, at a minimum should have been below TPO value.

2) The better entry than the minor LSPs was confluence with TPO VAL and RTH Vwap 1.5 SD.


But really, IF that were a great trade, the stop would be below current RTH low and the target at least 93.85. And I am not sold on that, which means little as I work through this method, but Vwap is solidly down still on both RTH/ETH, and my focus on that LSP buy kept me out of some nice shorts.

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GaryD View Post
I put a small DOM up against the footprint to follow along with the webinar content.


That lasted about an hour. I found an easier way in Sierra to do what I wanted.

Chart/Chart Settings/Advanced Settings 2/Draw DOM Graph on Chart

Just something to see what is bid vs ask.

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 GaryD 
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Crude is watching for a failure or washout in ES. Still relatively much weaker. Shorts may get trapped this RTH close, but...

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 GaryD 
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@Deucalion, the ES TPO said "buy" there too. I do not watch that in CL trade mode, but just noticed when I switched workspaces.

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 Deucalion 
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GaryD View Post
....I am saying from a 1 out of 4 with 10x RR.

Long Term is not a game I play yet. You are the ES man far more than I am. Just trying to decide if I kept at it today in CL after I told myself not to. NEVER listen ot me in ES, I am using it for something completely different 90% of the time.

As of this moment, they broke the local high 1591 something, but I would still sell ES for a multi-day hold, IF I sold ES for multi-day holds. And figure my odds 30% with a target...

I don't know really, not thinking about it with any sense of reality, but certainly down there some.

But, you gotta admit, good entry call on CL

Ha ha....sonofabitch! Cheeky bastard! But nicely done.


GaryD View Post
Make this easier for me, where do you see W5 for ES? I looked, but do not see in the timeframes I am looking at.


GaryD View Post
@Deucalion, if you promise not to tell anyone I will let you in on a secret. I went TIGHT, and got hit twice before it took.

A couple things I noticed while studying this for the next time.

1) If I had not already been hesitant to trade again, my stop would have been a lot further out, at a minimum should have been below TPO value.

2) The better entry than the minor LSPs was confluence with TPO VAL and RTH Vwap 1.5 SD.


But really, IF that were a great trade, the stop would be below current RTH low and the target at least 93.85. And I am not sold on that, which means little as I work through this method, but Vwap is solidly down still on both RTH/ETH, and my focus on that LSP buy kept me out of some nice shorts.

Good grief, you have started talking like one of those infernal profilers!

Look at the daily, the shorts have already been wrong at several levels, trying to make sense why ES is at nearly 1600. To fully frame the Major Wave here is the 4.23x timeframe of the previous chart (4181tick x 1.1618 x 1.1618 x 1.1618 = 17711tick chart for consistency). The intermediate wave on this bigger chart is the major wave on the 4181t previously posted.


Also, on the consolidated profile for your profiling satiation, look the value areas bounce on the daily and the tails (although I have no idea what I say when I talk profiling). Now I feel all dirty! i better wash myself!


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 GaryD 
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A heck of a lot of sellers up there


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Deucalion View Post

Also, on the consolidated profile for your profiling satiation, look the value areas bounce on the daily and the tails (although I have no idea what I say when I talk profiling). Now I feel all dirty! i better wash myself!


It's not all bad. I would take a guess that you have had fun before and later felt the same way.

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 Deucalion 
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GaryD View Post
It's not all bad. I would take a guess that you have had fun before and later felt the same way.

Damn, looks like the shorts are gonna survive for another day

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 GaryD 
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Trifecta. Shorted QM 93.30 targeted 93.00

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 GaryD 
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Why 93.00? confluence of 100% prior day's range (inside open) plus NPOC. Going back to this morning's short, that was my expected target but I am too much of a wussy to do that yet.

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... I did peel off most of the trade early, but not sure anymore if that is a bad thing. I used to think so and would get frustrated with myself, but I am statring to believe that is not fair criticism of myself....

---------------------------------------------------------

Now maybe 30 minutes later, CL is still moving down. I had considered a target of 93.10, just above the NPOC and barely above 90% range from yesterday. And just sighed as I typed that. As excited as I was with my single trade, there was much more potential in it.

Gives me something to think about and work on, but that will come. If it does make it there it will still be a victory for understanding. And without understanding I can't build confidence.



This is posted for "understanding". Some day, getting closer. Baby steps.


But, there was a tiny plus in that I did finally target it, just with a lot more day shown on the chart to go off.

Risk to reward between the opening short and this one has no comparison. Remora behavior again. Scraps picked up from the real feast.

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Deucalion View Post
Damn, looks like the shorts are gonna survive for another day


Well, another hour or two...

I am watching and may trade ES in the next 20 minutes. They are still flooding sell orders into that push.


There is my big ES trade for the day.


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Deucalion View Post
Look at the daily, the shorts have already been wrong at several levels, trying to make sense why ES is at nearly 1600. To fully frame the Major Wave here is the 4.23x timeframe of the previous chart (4181tick x 1.1618 x 1.1618 x 1.1618 = 17711tick chart for consistency). The intermediate wave on this bigger chart is the major wave on the 4181t previously posted.


OK, I get it. The W2/4 symmetry was throwing me, but the A wave attempted it, and then C could not overtake W1.

So, that suggests though that you are not anticipating a major break either? At what point would you define W5 failure, C leg or sooner? The extended W4 would bother me enough to lower my expectations. But then, ES only knows one direction.

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GaryD View Post
OK, I get it. The W2/4 symmetry was throwing me, but the A wave attempted it, and then C could not overtake W1.

So, that suggests though that you are not anticipating a major break either? At what point would you define W5 failure, C leg or sooner? The extended W4 would bother me enough to lower my expectations. But then, ES only knows one direction.

For the moment on this frame I am expecting just a push to 1620ish, but the macro is bullish, and the monthly on SPX cash is 1800 or above 2200. And even a move back to 1300 is just correctional. Perspective matters. We look at minute and day charts. Out there; is deep money, that looks at monthly charts.

W5 fails when the logical happens - W3 gets violated or supports start getting broken or long trades begin to fail. Just look for the simple stuff - no need to get fancy. Trade like a 5year old child not a 40year adult.

"...ES only knows one direction...." Yes, but that tis the right direction. I cant wait for the day for the ES to blow through 1800 and wait to see the reaction from all those that think that fundamentals are bad. Sz who...not the charts. These are guys looking for explanations as to "why".

"Why" is immaterial. It just is.

The tiger doesn't think why things are the way they are, not while he is hunting, he just goes out there and kills or gets killed. When he is back, after a big meal and some fine wine and some quality time with his harem, then he might get philosophical...


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SC allows me to reference drawings from another chart very easily, and I am starting to hide the 120/240m and refer to this instead. The chart above is ETH, the one below RTH.





Big calendar day tomorrow, plus first day of the month.


Motor Vehicle Sales

MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET

ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET

PMI Manufacturing Index
8:58 AM ET

Treasury Refunding Announcement
9:00 AM ET

3-Yr Note Announcement
9:00 AM ET

10-Yr Note Announcement
9:00 AM ET

30-Yr Bond Announcement
9:00 AM ET

ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET

Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET

EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET

FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:00 PM ET

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Deucalion View Post
Trade like a 5year old child not a 40year adult.

I have tried that, but the temper tantrums and the perception that money always comes can be a hindrance for me.



Deucalion View Post
"Why" is immaterial. It just is.

One that point we are in complete agreement. Same as CL and it's Iran/Libya/Syria/insert country here reactions.

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Incredible resemblance.


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Price has made it to key zone 1 in the ON session, and has pushed through the suggested stop line.






That will have us opening way out of balance from yesterday's range.






Meanwhile ES took the other route and touched on the minimum W5 zone by @Deucalion.


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 GaryD 
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"Sometimes when circumstances or disappointments bump you off track, it's the beginning of an even bigger dream coming true, that could not have come true on the track you were on. "

TUT

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GaryD View Post


ES is at a great Longterm short location...


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Whoa! Easy there -


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 GaryD 
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The green zone 3 is coming up and was preferred, but not freighttraining it.






BTW, explained color in another thread once, but yellow is "watch" green is "buy preferred" blue is "buy secondary", red is "sell", etc. Dashed lines are confirmation of contnuation.

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MP thoughts suggest range is unlimited, and currently OTFing... IBx2 down around 89.65.








Zone 3 had

1) Halfback of major wave, 618 of W3 inside major, and major LSP (although out of symmetry)

ON range is included in "range is unliimted" and is deciving when lookiing at the RTH TPOs. Price has moved over $3 from Y close.




Not in any hurry to trade yet.

Markets move down to shut off selling.

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Aw come on! if you shorted 92, you would have to sit through 3.5points (14ticks of heat) for target..I am not in the business of sitting through 14ticks of heat. No way! Not on Es and not with my size. Much better trade on RTH this morning....footprint allows a great deal more granularity when done right...especially when you trade size.....muttafuckahhhh!

Watch the perfect imbalances and market memory....

..and I mean much more than a dozen contracts. And this is how the pros do it.......3tick stop and 15tick profit...yuck yuck. How is that for RR


PS - for integrity, i did not get out at POC, instead out with 12ticks, just below that 6089x2591 cars 86.75 imbalance at 86.5. So only 12ticks

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Deucalion View Post
Aw come on! if you shorted 92, you would have to sit through 3.5points (14ticks of heat) for target..I am not in the business of sitting through 14ticks of heat. No way! Not on Es and not with my size. Much better trade on RTH this morning....footprint allows a great deal more granularity when done right...especially when you trade size.....muttafuckahhhh!

Watch the perfect imbalances and market memory....

..and I mean much more than a dozen contracts. And this is how the pros do it.......3tick stop and 15tick profit...yuck yuck. How is that for RR

PS - for integrity, i did not get out at POC, instead out with 12ticks, just below that 6089x2591 cars 86.75 imbalance at 86.5. So only 12ticks

Fed days are always tricky, but I think even a 15 tick target may be too little on this one. But, maybe the market will come and take me out, we'll see. The pain could be felt at 83, and observed with the 20K traded in 1 minute, and taking the other side has so far been a good trade. Usually we will slow down before minutes and I doubt we will see much go on the next 2+ hours, but maybe I'm wrong. Still deciding on whether to trail a stop here, scale out the 1/2 I added, or just leave it as is. Even if one missed the 83 buy, the push up in delta and volume off the low was a good case for getting in at 84 to 84.50. By the way, the three-day VPOC is now at 88.50, and the VPOC today has provided little resistance on the way back up here, which is recipe for continuation IMO. At least a test of current HOD at 89.50 would be in order "normally."



Interestingly, a good ol' trendline worked great for the buy this morning. This is a 10 minute from the Monday RTH low to yesterday's RTH low, which lined up perfectly with today's RTH low (so far). The parallel taken to the top perfectly aligns with the globex bars. This coincides with SPX 1600 which is very achievable today, but maybe that is wishful thinking, but that would be a very nice 48 ticker and would make my day.



Gary, hopefully I am not derailing your thread here big guy.

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 Deucalion 
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......Interestingly, a good ol' trendline worked great for the buy this morning.....

Nice @josh. You maybe completely right, the ETH sellers are at 92.50 in bulk. But I was AIAO, so that was it for me

All the retailers think its time to short, and they maybe right...except they don't get that bulls have the upper hand in every time frame...and that a short initiated in the ETH hours (in my book) is not where I want to place my bet. Real money plays RTH, that's where I wanna play...done diligently and with patience, on the mean reversion ES in a low VIX environment...and suddenly the short side is not the side I want to be. In general.

And as you can also see not only did it go from one side of VA to other but also did it with wave symmetry. And that's her!


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As it works in ES, CL, and every other market, buying into weakness in a market which has demonstrated a desire to go up is often a good play. This is the RTH -1SD, which also coincides with the full globex -1SD (though the globex VWAP is around 88 and I would love that to get broken to the upside. This is also near the VAL for the prior 2 days. Some stops hit, a new TICK low, even better. So, a few points of interest line up, and we at least get a bounce, 2 handles so far which is nice. Bernanke and The League must do their part now though of course.

Deucalion, earlier you talked about trading with large size and small stops and how 'da pros' do it--if Gary doesn't mind in his thread, can you elaborate a little on taking losses? I have found that this is one of my big weaknesses. It's easy to see when I'm right, and it's somewhat easy to see when I'm wrong, but being a good loser is something I largely desire to become better at. For you, is it as simple as "it's not working, hit the flatten button"?

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josh View Post


Deucalion, earlier you talked about trading with large size and small stops and how 'da pros' do it--if Gary doesn't mind in his thread, can you elaborate a little on taking losses?


I love when the great minds get together here. Can I get anyone drinks?

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Deucalion View Post
Aw come on! if you shorted 92, you would have to sit through 3.5points (14ticks of heat) for target..I am not in the business of sitting through 14ticks of heat. No way! Not on Es and not with my size. Much better trade on RTH this morning....footprint allows a great deal more granularity when done right...especially when you trade size.....muttafuckahhhh!

Watch the perfect imbalances and market memory....

..and I mean much more than a dozen contracts. And this is how the pros do it.......3tick stop and 15tick profit...yuck yuck. How is that for RR


OK, you win. You know ES is just another indicator to me.

But I enjoyed taking the shot while I had it. Did it sting? lol!!

Talk with you soon.

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 GaryD 
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I am shutting down IE and thus futures.io (formerly BMT) until after the FOMC. Email me.

You guys and your fancy new high-powered machines and expensive data feeds can handle the push. My 4mb Vista does not like to be stressed.

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The market is responding better to the major wave.




EDIT: Major support held today. Inertia managed to push through about 10 ticks, but the zone was only 15 ticks wide. Not sure what I was thinking there. But even after a few failed attempts, I netted 49 ticks on the long side. If I had set my zone to 30 wide minimum, like I would think I should know by now, I might have made it first attempt. But, without a lot of work that means little at this point, the spread could have gone either way.


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ES going into the last hour has confluence to the tick for 100% range and NPOC

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GaryD View Post
OK, you win. You know ES is just another indicator to me.

But I enjoyed taking the shot while I had it. Did it sting? lol!!

Talk with you soon.

Yes, it did...rightly so, trend traders made much more than my 3points today! Trinti?? You mean her?, the awesome , one and only....not too tall, not too short, just right Carrie Ann Moss


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 GaryD 
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A major point that just hit me tonight. This is the first time I can remember thinking about trading tomorrow and feeling like I knew everything was going to be OK, no matter what happened.

Sitting here with Melissa on the side porch of Pete's house. Raining, breezy.

I a not going to say anything about Mleissa's pajamas. "You bought 'em, right?" I just caught from her as I read aloud while typing. George Benson style. Not really. He killed it.

"This is what it is?" popped in my head. That moment when the world shifts. Only for me, that moment I mean. The real shift is I feel relaxed. No, tolerant maybe.

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WTI Trades Near One-Week Low as Stockpiles Rise to 82-Year High
By Ben Sharples - May 1, 2013



West Texas Intermediate crude traded near the lowest level in more than a week after government data showed U.S. stockpiles climbed to the highest in 82 years.

Futures were little changed in New York after slumping 2.6 percent yesterday, the most in more than two weeks. U.S. crude supplies increased 6.7 million barrels last week to 395.2 million barrels, the most in weekly data started in 1982, figures from the Energy Information Administration show. According to monthly data, they were last at this level in 1931. Inventories were forecast to climb 1.1 million barrels, a Bloomberg News survey showed.

WTI for June delivery was at $90.87 a barrel, down 16 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 10:15 a.m. Sydney time. The volume of all contracts traded was 60 percent below the 100-day average. Futures tumbled $2.43 to $91.03 yesterday, the biggest drop since April 15 and the lowest closing price since April 23.

Brent for June settlement slid $2.42, or 2.4 percent, to $99.95 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday. The front-month European benchmark ended trading at a premium of $8.92 to WTI. It closed at $8.91 on April 30, the narrowest gap since Dec. 30, 2011.

U.S. gasoline supplies dropped 1.8 million barrels last week, figures from the Energy Information Administration show. They were projected to decline 900,000 barrels, according to the median estimate of 11 analysts in the Bloomberg survey.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ben Sharples in Melbourne at bsharples@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net
.
®2013 BLOOMBERG L.P. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

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George Benson wins, audited statement attached.

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On the topic of music, this new girl is on fucking fire

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Faded the high around key resistance for a mean reversion trade. Considered going for the other side of the TPOS, but ok with where I was. Price is still riding above ETH VWAP fairly solidly, and ES is strongly above RTH Vwap. Major and preferred support held yesterday, so trend to me remains up, and as of now crude is OTFing higher, so my short to a target seemed conservative. We did open in range, but above value, and ES has seen a nice rebound.

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Rad4633 View Post
@Deucalion

@GaryD

Hi guys,

I had support under 80 saw this on push down, so would this be valid?

Edit: top arrow should be under trapped buyers

That is better to be answered by @Deucalion since I don't really trade ES, but I am happy to help with crude if you ever need it. Great colors. Very calm.

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GaryD View Post
That is better to be answered by @Deucalion since I don't really trrrade ES, but I am happy to help with crude if you ever need it. Great colors.

thx for offer, I need all the help I can get..I will delete off your thread

ttys R

ps I have to say I loved the pic of your wife in a prior post? with the helment on, I need more of those in my trading day

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 GaryD 
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Rad4633 View Post
thx for offer, I need all the help I can get..I will delete off your thread

ttys R

ps I have to say I loved the pic of your wife in a prior post? with the helment on, I need more of those in my trading day

You guys can discuss here if you want. Probably less cluttered than some other places.

I should trade wearing that helmet. BE the Viking.

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 GaryD 
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ES made it to the back side of a prior trendline





The short had more in it...






... but ETH Vwap is flat.


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 GaryD 
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Going to sit out, see if I get a chance to fade the lows. Or, maybe the test of C excess. Good single-contract net so far, do not need another trade today and need some more info and/or better location.

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 GaryD 
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Still flat, missed that move higher, price entered the extreme of range projection which has confluence with key resistance. Watching to possibly fade the top, but still not feeling overly motivated to change where I am. Now solidly above RTH/ETH Vwap and could be establishing a double distribution trend day.

NO, just decided not fading anything at this point. Will look to buy a pullback.

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 GaryD 
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Never could get interested in another trade. Not sure why. Almost bought the pullback to RTH 1SD, and then walked away instead. Great day regardless.

And, I tied my own shoes today.

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 GaryD 
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I am not sure if this feeling will last, but last night's post about not feeling any anxiety about trading, from any direction, is still with me. I do not care what it is doing tonight, I did not care that I was missing out today. I felt confident in my trade and my decisions, no fear of missing anything. It was just a task to do and an understanding that over time it will all even out. I made what I thought was enough today, and then was happy to wait until tomorrow. The screen flashed and bars jumped, but I was done. In a very comfortable place right now. And really starting to gel with the new screen layout.

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 GaryD 
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Very obvious absorbtion from resposive sellers on the 1m VSA






Coming in right at confluence with the NPOC on the TPO profile






And the 786 retracement on the higher timeframe






Unemployent report also sent ES over 1605. Should be an interesting day.

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 GaryD 
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I missed the trade as I was on the phone, but a great 10 tick stop 50 tick profit trade followed on the retest





And a great entry signal, which is also on higher volume. It had it all and I was snoozing...






70 tick... 80 tick, still going


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 GaryD 
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Friday after close. I had a good week, was hoping to break 2x PF today, but could not seem to get there. Lost a little bit on Monday, made it way back Tue, Wed, Thur, Fri. Very content.

I missed a gorgeous setup this morning, that was a tough start, and had a lot of phone calls and meetings today. Very tough to get in the zone, and I got to $500 and could not cross it. Finished $455. Lost, made it back, lost, made it back. Then quit. The afternoon action was very choppy and mostly sideways.

Loving the new charts. They are starting to feel familiar, understanding the inflection points better. Footprint is getting a lot better, but I had thought it would replace VSA, but for now it works with it. They do show two different things, unless I go to a 1m footprint.

ES feels like it got ahead of itself. Not sure about CL. The sellers came in this morning, and again later around 96.00. But the area was accepted pretty well. Looking forward to Monday to see how the story unfolds.

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 GaryD 
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Israeli launch airstrikes into Syria, possibly targeting delivery systems for chemical weapons, US officials say - World News


I would not want to be holding over the weekend. Expecting a Sunday open different than Friday's close.

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 GaryD 
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Spent hours tonight studying the various relationships of value. Taking each part and watching them interact by shading various colors has really helped to see some things more clearly.




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 GaryD 
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Noon on Saturday, my back is not cooperating and has me on home arrest. Still studying different views on the concept of value and how price reacts to it.

I was fishing with my neighbor last week. He has two kids, ages 5 and 10. As we are casting, he is discussing his what he envisions for their future, what he is hoping to teach them as they grow up. I said, "You know Martin, there are two things I can offer to teach your kids."

"One is how to play guitar, I was a classical and jazz guitar major at UNT". He said he would love that. "The other is how to trade." He just laughed.

"I'm serious, if they can grasp the right view of how markets move at this age, they will never have another financial care in their lives."

He said, "I would LOVE to have you teach them guitar"...



Well, anyway, I am working on a view to make it a game and will see what happens.



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