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Like a turtle to his balcony...
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Like a turtle to his balcony...

  #1261 (permalink)
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Deucalion View Post
Damn, looks like the shorts are gonna survive for another day


Well, another hour or two...

I am watching and may trade ES in the next 20 minutes. They are still flooding sell orders into that push.


There is my big ES trade for the day.

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Last edited by GaryD; April 30th, 2013 at 05:15 PM.
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Deucalion View Post
Look at the daily, the shorts have already been wrong at several levels, trying to make sense why ES is at nearly 1600. To fully frame the Major Wave here is the 4.23x timeframe of the previous chart (4181tick x 1.1618 x 1.1618 x 1.1618 = 17711tick chart for consistency). The intermediate wave on this bigger chart is the major wave on the 4181t previously posted.

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OK, I get it. The W2/4 symmetry was throwing me, but the A wave attempted it, and then C could not overtake W1.

So, that suggests though that you are not anticipating a major break either? At what point would you define W5 failure, C leg or sooner? The extended W4 would bother me enough to lower my expectations. But then, ES only knows one direction.

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GaryD View Post
OK, I get it. The W2/4 symmetry was throwing me, but the A wave attempted it, and then C could not overtake W1.

So, that suggests though that you are not anticipating a major break either? At what point would you define W5 failure, C leg or sooner? The extended W4 would bother me enough to lower my expectations. But then, ES only knows one direction.

For the moment on this frame I am expecting just a push to 1620ish, but the macro is bullish, and the monthly on SPX cash is 1800 or above 2200. And even a move back to 1300 is just correctional. Perspective matters. We look at minute and day charts. Out there; is deep money, that looks at monthly charts.

W5 fails when the logical happens - W3 gets violated or supports start getting broken or long trades begin to fail. Just look for the simple stuff - no need to get fancy. Trade like a 5year old child not a 40year adult.

"...ES only knows one direction...." Yes, but that tis the right direction. I cant wait for the day for the ES to blow through 1800 and wait to see the reaction from all those that think that fundamentals are bad. Sz who...not the charts. These are guys looking for explanations as to "why".

"Why" is immaterial. It just is.

The tiger doesn't think why things are the way they are, not while he is hunting, he just goes out there and kills or gets killed. When he is back, after a big meal and some fine wine and some quality time with his harem, then he might get philosophical...

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Last edited by Deucalion; April 30th, 2013 at 08:49 PM.
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SC allows me to reference drawings from another chart very easily, and I am starting to hide the 120/240m and refer to this instead. The chart above is ETH, the one below RTH.

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  #1265 (permalink)
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Deucalion View Post
Trade like a 5year old child not a 40year adult.

I have tried that, but the temper tantrums and the perception that money always comes can be a hindrance for me.



Deucalion View Post
"Why" is immaterial. It just is.

One that point we are in complete agreement. Same as CL and it's Iran/Libya/Syria/insert country here reactions.

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Incredible resemblance.


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GaryD View Post
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Price has made it to key zone 1 in the ON session, and has pushed through the suggested stop line.

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That will have us opening way out of balance from yesterday's range.

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Meanwhile ES took the other route and touched on the minimum W5 zone by @Deucalion.

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Last edited by GaryD; May 1st, 2013 at 09:13 AM.
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"Sometimes when circumstances or disappointments bump you off track, it's the beginning of an even bigger dream coming true, that could not have come true on the track you were on. "

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GaryD View Post


ES is at a great Longterm short location...


Deucalion View Post
Whoa! Easy there -


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The green zone 3 is coming up and was preferred, but not freighttraining it.

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BTW, explained color in another thread once, but yellow is "watch" green is "buy preferred" blue is "buy secondary", red is "sell", etc. Dashed lines are confirmation of contnuation.

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