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Like a turtle to his balcony...


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Like a turtle to his balcony...

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  #1241 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011




Yesterday's watch zone did wind up providing resistance, but it was hard to trade. Price held the high side of it all the way into the RTH close, and did not reject out until pre-open this morning. That scenario is so familiar to me by now that I am seeing why I get less benefit from SR calculation than I would like, and also why MP may possibly provide a better way to determine direction on the fly.

I was also watching for an ES DT yesterday, and so far we have it, with price not only refusing to break the major high but also ON motion coming back below the local high. But again, the benefit of the analysis was none yesterday, and I actually tried to go long in the PM pullback as I assumed it would blow on low volume.






I watched as much aof a webinar as I could on reading order flow. Phone kept ringing, but plan to attend the 2-day free access to see what else I can pick up about it. I put a small DOM up against the footprint to follow along with the webinar content.


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  #1242 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
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Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

Nailed this morning. that's all I have to say. And because of that, I quit today. Adrenaline, or testosterone, or dopamine, or whatever hypnotic cocktail comes from that experience, and I know that by now, says my bonus should be an early day.


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  #1243 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
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Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


Here is what happened. The ES failed yesterday and had pulled back below the local top. ES opened slightly up, and then got hammered. Meanwhile, CL had an opening drive higher, coming off yesterday's TPO POC. I could see heavy absorbtion as CL tried to break above the initial balance, and saw tremendous thrust thrown at trying to go higher but just kept getting soaked up. I went short. It gave me about 10m to make sure that is what I wanted, and buyers were hitting every few ticks of a pullback, and I dropped the trade once thinking I would re-enter at TPOs in B above the IB, but then it finally gave, I jumped back on, aimed for the ETH low, and pressed harder as it went, dragging my stop in as it moved.

I did peel off most of the trade early, but not sure anymore if that is a bad thing. I used to think so and would get frustrated with myself, but I am statring to believe that is not fair criticism of myself.

And the small victory this morning was pressing it. That is something I almost never do, but given the background for today it just felt right. Even the few times I have pressed before, it did not feel right, it felt scary. Today I just did it and thought it was right. By the time I added I was positive, and I never risked losing anything but what I was just in, so there was no risk really after the initial move.

---------------------------------------------------------

Now maybe 30 minutes later, CL is still moving down. I had considered a target of 93.10, just above the NPOC and barely above 90% range from yesterday. And just sighed as I typed that. As excited as I was with my single trade, there was much more potential in it.

Gives me something to think about and work on, but that will come. If it does make it there it will still be a victory for understanding. And without understanding I can't build confidence.

The win this morning comes from something I have seen before, and could not say when, or how many times.

And what I did, something I have been working out in my head for a very long time now, is reverse something I did wrong in the past. I had a trade go against me and added into it, it came back to about BE but I held, and it went against me more so I added in, did not get to BE, against me more, added in... HUGE loser. And I have wondered so many times what that was and why it is so easy to do in a losing trade, and never works that way in a winning trade. I thought, "do the opposite". And that thought has been trying to manifest but couldn't for so long. And even today it was not the same, it was forced behavior. But I was CALM enough and kept focusing on what my intent was, accepted that.

I keep adding to this trying to hold onto that thought and find it more.

Is it, "add in, see if I can get it to be a small loser"?

I will add some charts later. No, the charts do not matter in this case. It was a divergence in market correlation, with a major DT in ES, and huge absorbtion. That was the setup. What matters is digging into that thought and is it, "add in, see if I can get it to be a small loser"? That sounds nuts. But it is the opposite of adding to a loser, the goal in that case being to get it back to a small win.

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  #1244 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011




I am contemplating a long in the green zone, but value is following price... And not sure what I mean bby that yet in terms of bias... as it is constantly a moving target.

We rejected yesterday's low with some force, and shape is wedging. ES has blown all morning shorts away. RTH core value keeps getting rejected as well. Not a very clean setup.

There was a Breaking News conference with Obama about Syria, and that caused a lot of upward pressure, but it got smacked back down twice already, even as ES has taken out the IB high.


ES is at a great Longterm short location...


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  #1245 (permalink)
Calgary, Canada
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Posts: 430 since Aug 2009


GaryD View Post
...............ES is at a great Longterm short location...

Whoa! Easy there - ES has been bouncing one EW wave level to another with deadly accuracy. Major W4 was hit this morning, that's why clowns shorting that got killed. A pause maybe in the works, but typical impulsive targets are higher (not to mention an extension). Dangerous game to play - correlating ES with CL, but ya already knew that


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  #1246 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
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Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


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  #1247 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
 
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Platform: shoes
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Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

closed 93.61. Watching footprint. Probably a wrong exit, but it's a win, I waited for my entry, and was not going to take another anyway.


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  #1248 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
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Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


Deucalion View Post
Whoa! Easy there - ES has been bouncing one EW wave level to another with deadly accuracy. Major W4 was hit this morning, that's why clowns shorting that got killed. A pause maybe in the works, but typical impulsive targets are higher (not to mention an extension). Dangerous game to play - correlating ES with CL, but ya already knew that



I am saying from a 1 out of 4 with 10x RR.

Long Term is not a game I play yet. You are the ES man far more than I am. Just trying to decide if I kept at it today in CL after I told myself not to. NEVER listen ot me in ES, I am using it for something completely different 90% of the time.

As of this moment, they broke the local high 1591 something, but I would still sell ES for a multi-day hold, IF I sold ES for multi-day holds. And figure my odds 30% with a target...

I don't know really, not thinking about it with any sense of reality, but certainly down there some.

But, you gotta admit, good entry call on CL

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  #1249 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
 
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Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


Deucalion View Post
Major W4 was hit this morning,

Make this easier for me, where do you see W5 for ES? I looked, but do not see in the timeframes I am looking at.

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  #1250 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
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Posts: 6,462 since May 2011



GaryD View Post

But, you gotta admit, good entry call on CL



@Deucalion, if you promise not to tell anyone I will let you in on a secret. I went TIGHT, and got hit twice before it took.





A couple things I noticed while studying this for the next time.

1) If I had not already been hesitant to trade again, my stop would have been a lot further out, at a minimum should have been below TPO value.

2) The better entry than the minor LSPs was confluence with TPO VAL and RTH Vwap 1.5 SD.


But really, IF that were a great trade, the stop would be below current RTH low and the target at least 93.85. And I am not sold on that, which means little as I work through this method, but Vwap is solidly down still on both RTH/ETH, and my focus on that LSP buy kept me out of some nice shorts.

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