And so, tonight I erased every drawing on the 120m, and started over.
I did not feel like going through it all from top to bottom tonight. I did a simple look at basic areas of where to buy. A few lines here and there, but saw those other charts on the screen and that was bothering me, so I decided to go through that instead.
And I see another thing now more clearly about why I am trying to get out of scalping. Scalping is all about timing and entry and reading the market, but not so much about exits. I know where to get in many times, where to get out is what I want to know more about. And that is why I am studying value and profile.
It is not just some wave or projection, it is allowing the market to say where, letting it decide what type of trade it will be even. Who am I to decide in advance where I will exit a trade, without the market showing me where first?
I saw it try to say to me today that my fade of the top lost its excess, but I knew better. "I am practicing holding a trade longer" I thought. But that thinking got in the way of listening.
Then when it broke, if key resistance does not hold, that is a sign. That is what I am there for, to watch for those clues. But I was thinking about how that fit into profile and how long to expect a neutral day. I do not think it was past 100% of initial balance yet, so maybe it was just reaching? The limit for expecting a neutral day is that wide. Although today had a rather extended A period.
And then when I caught up, maybe only 30m later? I had to switch modes so quick and never got a chance to decide where to enter. Or rather, did not have a clear plan for that event. And really, the moment had passed, assuming I would have expected it. But expecting anything at any moment is a hard game to play at times.
The break was the market trying to tell me something, I was listening to my ideas of what was about to happen. I cannot run on instinct when I am learning something new, there are too many processes in the way, too many questions, too much checking myself against three books that currently lay on my drafting table, each opened to a different section for quick reference when something happens that I need a refresher on. 1000 pages... lol. Crammed half of it down already.
And when my instinct does kick in, it is often about a rapid entry. How to scalp. I have let so many 12-15-20 tick scalps go over the past week or two. At least one or two a day that I have allowed to come back on me. That adds up at the end of the week.
So I am tired, and ranting, and tomorrow is Friday, and I am headed into it with hidden revenge all over the place. Still mostly hidden, I am guessing. Just like charts, so much easier to see it after the fact.
a) Slow down. Way down. This thread is 3 months old and you've posted over 1,000 times, at a rate of 11 posts per day. Wouldn't you be able to better organize your thoughts if you were making just a 2-3 posts per day?
b) Simple is better. Your new system is complex and is therefore prone to error much more than a simpler system.
c) I personally feel if you are taking more than 2 trades a day, you are over trading. Step back, look at larger charts, trade smaller size and bigger time frames. Give your trade room to work.
Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.
Need help? 1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first. 2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses. 3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make. 4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance. 5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers. 6) Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.
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Also Jim has mentioned may times....this stuff is complicated and takes time to drum in to make things intuitive
Even the most excellent brains can take minimum a year to go through this process
Im over 6-7 month in and still finding things hard......but things are getting better every day and every market cycle
But...if your not viewing things the correct way and your throwing old stuff back up and mixing view, every thing will take twice as long to establish the correct brain connections to view this stuff in the correct context as things unfold in live markets
" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
Last edited by greenr; April 26th, 2013 at 12:21 PM.
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I traded to myself today, with one exception where I skyped Ryan about a key pivot. Not that he needed it, but I figured he was short and I saw something I felt very strong about. I hated to even make a suggestion about someone else's trade, but every once and awhile it all comes together and I could not stop myself from saying something. Trying to watch out for him as a friend. Mother hen, maybe.
I did take notes on a sheet of paper about current wave, current trend, key levels, news, open type, etc. Got knocked around a few times this morning and took a break. Set an alarm in Sierra for two areas and walked away.
My star trade of the day was a long in CL at 92 something, right into the face of the retest. Those entries always make me uncomfortable, but it was either going to be right, or wrong but quick. Today it was right.
I had a bonus short into the last few minutes of ES. After watching the CL pit close and then seeing ES try to repeat the pattern, I went one contract. up around the HOD.
I pulled out the 6-range chart just because someone asked me about the difference in what I am studying and what I used to trade. I kept it up for a day, just curious, but am not using it for anything, not even confirmation. But, I did try it today with just an ETH Vwap, and liked it a lot. The motion of a 6-range is familiar to me. I replaced the 5m with it for the day and may keep it that way.
The 1mVSA was reduced to 50% the window size this week also, just still in the weaning off stage, as I move into using the footprint volume and delta instead.
The fibs I am still using, and do not expect to discontinue any time soon, if I do at all. They provide additional context, just like watching weekly or monthly vwap, or daily MAs, or increasing/decreasing volume.
I am still a bit irritated about not reading that move up yesterday, but did not experience any issues with it today as I thought I might. Maybe because I expressed it in advance and was aware of it. I got the hint from reading something recently about how acknowledging fear can keep you focused. A Trader Psyches email.
If tomorow you found out..for some bizarre reason..that the only possible option for supporting yourself was entirely through your trading...how would you trade ? Would you stick with what you're doing now..or would you review what used to work well for yourself and return to that ?
I have had to face that question and it may have been the best thing that ever happened to me.
I am not trying to blend old with new. Some charts were only up because the topic of what I used to watch came up. But live, I have two views of MP (the current day with two days prior, and a longer view), and ETH and RTH vwap, a footprint, and 1mVSA. I am still kind of feeling my way into the value thing. Moving things around. making things larger or smaller depending on what I am trying to focus on for the week, or what I read over the weekend. So yes, things may move around, but I am keeping it in the same direction; value.
You may see a lot of confusion because I post a lot of it, very open about some things that maybe I should not be. And I am wrong about this new study way more often that I would like to be, and of course it is frustrating, but you have heard my voice recently, I am not stressed. It is natural to not enjoy falling down, but I am not getting hurt.
I am not worried about it. I don't have a deadline anymore. Setting one for myself last year was way off course and put pressure on myself that I never should have. Something you need to stay aware of too, my friend.
Denise Schull shared a story of skiing down a tough run and how she related it to trading, and it had to do with embracing the fear. I am trying to do that more and more, and also embracing frustration somewhat as well. It makes me remember better for the next time, allows me to get it out instead of hanging out inside waiting to take it out on the market. Let's me put it in order and read it, which causes me to think differently about it. Sometimes I am embarrased by it, sometimes i feel less upset with myself as I can understand better. Sometimes it is a kick in the ass that I need.
Ended the week down. And has nothing to do with anything important really. It's Friday, I have some reading to do, and life is good.
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Well, I have not thought of it that way recently. That feeling is how I learned to scalp in the first place, and it did work good for me for awhile. The idea was to keep my targets within range of something that happens with such frequency that I am never worried about finding the next opportunity. While I learned to see the market at a microscopic level, sometimes that is not all I need to see. And what I did felt so intense that the pressure got to be too much for me. And somehow, never have completely figured that one out and really am not trying, one fateful day I got trigger happy and scalped myself out of trading for a few months.
What I did see was a huge disconnect between the trader that scalped and the trader that watched 120m and higher charts. I used to comment often about how I wished I could blend the two but had a hard time doing it. I do think I have learned why; as a scalper timing and speed is everything, and I see the $200 I 'could have had" come and go over and over as I wait for a big wave to complete. From a risk to reward perspective, there is no comparison, and I also used to observe that I would prefer to win 30% of the time at a bigger win to loss than 70% of the time scalping.
A recent example, I was watching for a major H&S pattern in CL recently, commented here about my pretend swing entries. There were two of them, two different days, with a target at 88.50. That worked out great, and my heat was maybe 30 ticks on a 650 tick move? I would take 20% win rate.
The analysis I do on a larger timeframe is useful, but I never really take full advantage of it. And the reason is, other than having some understanding of patterns I really do not understand the markets in the way that I wish I did. I don't necessarily want the money right now, I went that path already.
And what I saw about market profile and the perception of value is a deeper look inside why markets do what they do. Not exactly in the 1000 pages of study, or in rules about balance, range, excess, etc, but combine it all and you start to have this picture of a holistic approach.
I am not there yet, but it makes far more sense to me than all of the other things I have ever studied. Fib lines, (and I know @greenr will cringe), are still something I want to keep. They are areas of interest. Not a trading methodology. For example, if one breaks, that could lend insight into a developing day. Same if one is approaching, that could be cause to tighten stops. Keeping a stop in value just because is a good rule, but there are times to break rules. And those times are when the picture as a whole says something different. There is no way in the world I could ever see the whole picture while scalping. They are two completely different areas of focus.
So, if I had to trade to survive, today, I would have to choose scalping, but I may not get a trade every day, and I would have to keep my eyes glued to every little flutter for hours until it was time. Which is not fun, is not relaxing, or enjoyable, wears me out. Burns me out. And is not a confidence builder.
But, I don't have that requirement right now, and my path is to understand more about WHY, WHEN, WHERE, HOW FAR. Allow the market to do it's thing, and undertstand it enough to feel comfortable with that.
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