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Like a turtle to his balcony...
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Like a turtle to his balcony...

  #1211 (permalink)
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Syria is an oil producing country. Not a huge contributor, but the production numbers are similar to Libya, and I am assuming you watched what that did to prices. Whenever there is even the threat of something that could disrupt oil supply, (think Iran) it seems to drive the oil futures market batty.

Google it, I am betting there is a news site that has the real reason behind that move. That was not just a "the economy is great" rally. That was, "OMG what if we can never buy this low again, the oil supply is in danger, traders climbing over each other", aka WTI-WTF.


Last edited by GaryD; April 25th, 2013 at 07:39 PM.
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UPDATE 7-Oil gains on Syria, commods rally; Brent premium under $10 | Reuters

Oil price jumps on Syria weapons report | News.com.au

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/afp/130425/oil-price-jumps-syria-chemical-weapons-report

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Nice i couldnt find any thing on the site i look at for some reason :-/

" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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Michael Korn, president of Skokie Energy in Princeton, New Jersey, referring to the defense secretary's comments on Syria,"...the geopolitical dimension to the market trumps any macroeconomic data".

Makes little sense, but futures are all about what could happen. And it seems speculators have a way of squeezing every last tick out of fear when in comes to that part of the world.

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Nice i couldnt find any thing on the site i look at for some reason :-/


Maybe you guys are less into hype over there. In the US we prefer that over reality.

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Syria is a small player in the oil market, but so is Libya and from memory that drove prices $20 +/- before it was all over. There seems to be a recurring concern that problems in that area might spread, and Syria has some major neighbors when it comes to oil production.

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It was February 2011.

Barack Obama tells Gaddafi: Libya violence must stop | World news | The Guardian


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Not suggesting anything about what the price of oil might do. You never know. But this is what it is capable of.

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Per Wikipedia

Attached Thumbnails
Like a turtle to his balcony...-oil-production-copy.pdf  
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Within the past week or so, crude had attempted a W5, with W2 being a RSP.

There was one solitary profile bar between gaps on both ends that hovered above and represented W3, showing the move had more room to go down, but then settled into a 6-7 day balance as it fought into the overhead responsive selling.

Crude then came up off the failed W5, kept going in and out of key W4 resistance shaded in the chart below, and then broke out.

It started with an open out of range where resistance had been broken through in the ON session, and had come back. That was the background for the pit open in the chart below, which was a stong opening drive, and the market one timeframed higher the rest of the day.


This chart is RTH only. Full sessions are in the next post.



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Pulling the drawings from the 120m onto the TPO chart.



That was the day before this one.



Today I was expecting a possble rotational day, and then read something from Stanton Analytics where they were too, and my mind was made up. It worked until it didn't.

The way it went down; There was another key resistance level that had stopped the prior day's move up, a NPOC slowed it down, but it worked it's way up to the edge of deep resistance, shaded in red in the chart above.

Price opened today with a Open Test Drive (2TPO), and then came down hard... but never could make it into yesterday's value.


A 3rd hit to the low 2SD was a LL, but it had RSI divergence (and the Delta Divergence signal fired right at the best possible entry today.)


I tried to fade the upper end again when it started to form some excess, but then the excess never came.

A new period started after I had only been in a few minutes. And because of that I kind of tried to ignore it, it was a fluke. "Stay in the trade". I said to myself. If I am going to learn something new I have to have patience and let it work.


My stop hit, price ran higher for a small break, and then pulled back to the breaking point. Why I did not go long there, I do not know. Just was "not ready for that" is the best I can come up with.

It had something to do with the market not acting "normal", whatever that is. But it seemed like an unusual move.

Then after it had started an impusle move higher, or better maybe, "initiative buying", it rode the upper 2SD, pegged to it.

I then heard of the news about Syria possibly using chemical weapons and talk of US response. OK, "geopolitical event", I thought. So then, I tried to get myself into impulse mode and watched for a "good" entry. I defined that today as a pullback to value. Value didn't stand a chance...


Bummed. Too conservative on some entries and too bold on others, and who knows why.

But I at least was wanting some pullback. Instead, I should have entered on a buy stop, or just hit a decent footprint bar and determined my risk before?

I watched it the rest of the way.


And this is what it looked like. Looks easy as hell now. Funny how that happens more often than makes sense.

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Last edited by GaryD; April 26th, 2013 at 12:14 AM.
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RTH is separate profile from ON, and this is after everything.


Last edited by GaryD; April 26th, 2013 at 12:15 AM.
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