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Like a turtle to his balcony...
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Like a turtle to his balcony...

  #1191 (permalink)
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josh View Post
My point, I think (it's late), is simply this: we are shown to have been right or wrong, in retrospect only. A trading decision or analysis works out to be "right" or "wrong," but that does not automatically make it a decision that we should not have taken. For example, selling what we perceive as an unfair high is perhaps a high probability play, over a large data set, and that does not make it a "wrong" thing to do, just because it does not work on one particular day. Perhaps we can learn from this and work on our analysis for the future, but that does not mean that the idea itself was in some way "bad" necessarily (though in some cases, I think a case can be made for this). This is the general idea I think I had in my head when I wrote this.

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  #1192 (permalink)
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josh View Post
It/you were not wrong--there is no right or wrong, and that's an important point I think. You could say that your view did not align with the market's, but it won't always, so it's not a matter of your view being wrong, it just did not coincide with today's market activity.

Of those 7 profiles in that group, three of them (including the last 2 before today) have almost the same high, and the last two days prior to today had almost the same range, with the last day before today being an inside day.

I do not have this setup up, but what if you merge those 7 profiles (prior to today)--what does it look like?

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The excess top plus the gap I was reading as a sell.



When I remove that 7th day, I see the top as incomplete.


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Last edited by GaryD; April 25th, 2013 at 08:58 AM. Reason: add chart without 7th day
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  #1193 (permalink)
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Well, I did find a clue that I knew ahead of time but it got lost in trying to piece together a lot of new information. The opening type was Open Drive. And, while I try not to listen to the news as it is released, EIA had a big surprise in inventory and gasoline. Add to those that the pattern ahead of the report showed consolidation at a potential W5 top, and it suggests there were enough short positions to squeeze the crap out of that market.

Speculation on my part.

I am expecting some sort of a neutral day, as crude has run itself up into major resistance once again. 91.60-92.30 is braod overhead, with the key level being 92.00-92.25. Anticipating the low end of support as far down as yesterday's Vwap around 90.60 spreading the 1st SD between 90.30-90.90. At least that is my quick look so far today.

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  #1194 (permalink)
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Big Mike View Post
Embrace loss. The best losers are the best traders.

Mike


Yes, but I would not want that award in a trading competition.


Being silly Mike. I know, and am not that concerened. I see that I have a lot of new stuff that has not formed into a single view yet.




GaryD View Post
How losses are handled makes or breaks a trader. Stop Losses, breakevens, goes in your favor then comes back, thought about taking the trade but didn't.

The psychological impact of major losses. Psychological losses...

Whatever the loss may be, dealing with it, and moving on to the next trade without a hit to confidence, is a required skill. Learning it takes work.

I had a day today where that has been a major conversation topic when I think to myself.


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A blast from the past. I put this in a corner of my screen today. Like comfort food.

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Yesterday was a double distribution. I have split that day's profile into two, with the E period excess the top of the first half, and the F period excess low the bottom of the second.

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Taking a premarket low risk short.

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  #1197 (permalink)
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GaryD View Post
Yesterday was a double distribution. I have split that day's profile into two, with the E period excess the top of the first half, and the F period excess low the bottom of the second.

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Taking a premarket low risk short.

Yesterday was not a doubble distribution day in my eyes

It was just a stright up elongated trend day, no doubble distrubution

If it was a doubble distribution day we would have created 2 balance/value areas which we did not

" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"

Last edited by greenr; April 25th, 2013 at 10:15 AM.
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Delta Divergence makes the little star

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Or maybe a Normal day

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Sierra 967 has some bugs. What I know now;

1) NPOC did not cancel out from yesterday, red line still continues today.
2) Option to remove "Menu" at the top does not work.

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