Like a turtle to his balcony... - futures io
futures io



Like a turtle to his balcony...


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one GaryD with 1,625 posts (688 thanks)
    2. looks_two josh with 67 posts (106 thanks)
    3. looks_3 greenr with 51 posts (53 thanks)
    4. looks_4 Deucalion with 28 posts (77 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one Deucalion with 2.8 thanks per post
    2. looks_two josh with 1.6 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 greenr with 1 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 GaryD with 0.4 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 151,843 views
    2. thumb_up 1,158 thanks given
    3. group 36 followers
    1. forum 1,905 posts
    2. attach_file 1,043 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 125,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

Like a turtle to his balcony...

(login for full post details)
  #1101 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


josh View Post
Did you figure out your strange prints on the footprint chart? If not, have you check to be sure that "Intraday Storage Time Unit" is set to 1 tick in "Data/Trade Service Settings"?


I made the changes needed for tick data, and did not see the same thing today. But when the changes were made all historical was lost, and today was nothing like yesterday in terms of volume intensity, so still waiting to see.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1102 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

How losses are handled makes or breaks a trader. Stop Losses, breakevens, goes in your favor then comes back, thought about taking the trade but didn't.

The psychological impact of major losses. Psychological losses...

Whatever the loss may be, dealing with it, and moving on to the next trade without a hit to confidence, is a required skill. Learning it takes work.

I had a day today where that has been a major conversation topic when I think to myself.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1103 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011





I continue to try to wean myself off scalping, and the process can be frustrating. I had 5 "trades", not counting scalps here and there, and the profit potential per trade ran from low to high, +18, +20, +30, +32, +71. Could have had five 17 tick winners in a row and called it a day, with maximum heat 10 ticks.

Instead, I had two wins, 3 losses, (1 scalp I decided not to call a trade after I posted the chart and do not feel like correcting it). And I want to be OK with that, as I am really pushing myself to mentally desire longer holds, enjoy longer holds, not be so quick to close a trade.

Being profitable is all about where you get in and where you get out. Why I chose the long side after I saw the day starting to form is spelled out in a post back a few, and I am not at all disappointed in my read of the day. That first long trade I posted here yesterday was the one I thought I was looking for, but it wound up being one minor wave too early, price had to test the LOD first.

But what does bother me is I sat through having thre profitable trades go to +20, +18, +30, all of them to come back on me, and then I allowed that to condition my mind late in the day to expect about 30 ticks max. Where every trade prior I had expected 50-80.

When the trade finally did come, I had talked myself out of it. It's like I started the day with my confidence tank on full and burned it up as the day progressed.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1104 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011





Looking back on the day type, and knowing where my head was yesterday, after I saw the open shake itself out some I was expecting a neutral day with minimal range extension. If that was what I expected, A ROTATIONAL DAY, that is possibly when I should focus more on scalps, or allow a better balance of them.

I know that better when the market is closed and I can get everything together here in silence. But when it is open it still seems to cloud my logic some.

I have scalped for so long it is a hard hard habit to break. But I am very committed to, if not getting away from it at least achieving balance in it. So I have done some things recently that are way out of character for me.

My typical first scale out would be 12-16 ticks, if I were trading multiple contracts. But all of the brain activity and decision-making process that goes with heavier positioning makes it more complicated for me to focus on what I am trying to shape in myself longer term. Thinking about "money" starts to bring into view more trees than forest.

But trading 1 contract, I could let it go and not be as concerned that I could have made $300, I can let it run against me if I choose -$300, and not lose focus on the psychological stretching that is the exercise I am doing lately. That excercise has caused me to leave more money on the table than I put in my account, but I am ok with that.

Getting this out shows me that I am making progress. If I want a long move on a rotational day, I need to fade the extremes, or scalp the rest, or my expectation of a trade target distance should change depending on day type and trade position, and even possibly time of day.

Really, the goal is to get my mind to where I can assess the day, and become the trader that the day supports. And to do that, making money has to move to the backburner.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1105 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

My read on Thursday was a lot better, and the same approach I took to Friday, which did not work well, worked like magic on Thursday. And both were "Neutral" days. But, I can see now where the IB extensions may be the determining factor in deciding how to play it.



Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1106 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011





Which also had to do with the local DB / failed W5 down that was the backdrop for Thursday, compared to Friday coming into major resistance on low volume.

Balance, imbalance, repeat...





Crude is like that, can be stubborn and have wide and violent consolidations, and until the W4 top breaks the W5 target can't be totally ruled out. On Thursday, because it was near the test, up seemed the only sane way to go. But on Friday, now the risk is minimal for the swing to enter short again. Thus, tighter range...


Really, what I see now is a possible ABC correction inside a W5 still in progress.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1107 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

It sure does seem to line up on an approximate time projection, and with good ABC symmetry...








The move up off XFib 1 was coordinated with Gold's move up in the overnight session...

Going to erase everything and start over with that theory in mind. Get rid of a lot of things that are left over from prior projections that are just cluttering up the picture.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1108 (permalink)
r3algood
Little Rock, Arkansas
 
 
Posts: 198 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 106 given, 108 received


GaryD View Post
Really, the goal is to get my mind to where I can assess the day, and become the trader that the day supports. And to do that, making money has to move to the backburner.

GaryD,

I have followed your threads and posts for a long time and enjoy when "GaryD" pops up on the "New Posts" part of the front page as I know I have a great post to look forward to.

Let me float the following idea to you and see what you think:

Instead of "assessing the day" or trying to figure out the day type, why not JUST focus on trading the chart in front of you?

Going back to your idea of the mental "gas tank", what if some of that mental fuel is being burned unnecessarily in hopes of identifying the day type, instead of spending all that fuel on simply trading the chart in front of you?

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to r3algood for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1109 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1110 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


r3algood View Post
GaryD,

I have followed your threads and posts for a long time and enjoy when "GaryD" pops up on the "New Posts" part of the front page as I know I have a great post to look forward to.

Let me float the following idea to you and see what you think:

Instead of "assessing the day" or trying to figure out the day type, why not JUST focus on trading the chart in front of you?

Going back to your idea of the mental "gas tank", what if some of that mental fuel is being burned unnecessarily in hopes of identifying the day type, instead of spending all that fuel on simply trading the chart in front of you?

RISK VERSUS REWARD

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1111 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

No, that is a part of it, but not all of it. And maybe explaining it will be good for both of us.



r3algood View Post
Instead of "assessing the day" or trying to figure out the day type, why not JUST focus on trading the chart in front of you?

There is always more than one chart in front of me.
  1. Having an expectation of whether to go with a move or fade a move is a huge edge.
  2. Having some expectation of distance maximizes return per trade.
  3. Market profile is only another piece in a larger puzzle.



r3algood View Post
Going back to your idea of the mental "gas tank", what if some of that mental fuel is being burned unnecessarily in hopes of identifying the day type...?

  1. Without some greater view of where I am headed, I have no goal of improvement. Some energy must go towards progressing.
  2. The "gas" was burned up by repeated attempts and repeated frustration of not having taken the scalp profit, but the day type was already determined by that point in the day. Once C period completed that part was over with.






Where I was "wrong" was I thought the B period excess would hold.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1112 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011












In addition to the W5 most likely still in play, there are more reasons to lean short as of Saturday afternoon.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1113 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1114 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011





The selling absorbtion that hit at the pit close was intense. It was like sell orders were all crowded on top of each other at the HOD, and price could not make it one tick above it. Even though, I don't see it on the footprint. More like targets.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1115 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


r3algood View Post
Instead of "assessing the day" or trying to figure out the day type, why not JUST focus on trading the chart in front of you?

Going back to your idea of the mental "gas tank", what if some of that mental fuel is being burned unnecessarily in hopes of identifying the day type, instead of spending all that fuel on simply trading the chart in front of you?

My expectation is that integrating market profile and the concept of value into my trading will give me some benchmark to gauge when I should hold for longer profits and when I should go for a smaller target. The total efficiency of my trades would improve. And with that developing knowledge, my Profit Factor will go up.

The end goal being that I become comfortable trading greater size due to the resulting lowered equity volatility.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1116 (permalink)
 josh 
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,055 given, 14,517 received


r3algood View Post
Going back to your idea of the mental "gas tank", what if some of that mental fuel is being burned unnecessarily in hopes of identifying the day type, instead of spending all that fuel on simply trading the chart in front of you?

@r3algood, a question for you: what does it mean to you to "trade the chart in front of you?" Can you be more specific? It is an oft-repeated cliche in trading, but I'd like to hear some more concrete ideas about this if you will.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1117 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


r3algood View Post

Instead of "assessing the day" or trying to figure out the day type, why not JUST focus on trading the chart in front of you?

Going back to your idea of the mental "gas tank", what if some of that mental fuel is being burned unnecessarily in hopes of identifying the day type, instead of spending all that fuel on simply trading the chart in front of you?

I am not trying to wear this out, just that some thoughts continue to reverberate for awhile.

You are very right, JUST focusing on the chart in front of me is the correct thing to do. "Trade what you see" is basically the same thought.

I am working on improving my vision.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1118 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011





Weekly Profile - price closed Friday in perfect balance.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1119 (permalink)
 Rad4633 
Greensboro NC
 
Experience: None
Platform: TOS/ NT Dorman
Trading: ES TF CL
 
Rad4633's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,352 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 2,651 given, 893 received

@GaryD

just saw ur using Sierra Charts, can you split the Tpo profile for the current day? from your charts your not doing this or able to do this???

thx R

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Rad4633 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1120 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


Rad4633 View Post
@GaryD

just saw ur using Sierra Charts, can you split the Tpo profile for the current day? from your charts your not doing this or able to do this???

thx R

It will split or merge wherever. Very cool feature. In the CBOT guide to market profile they keep a long term view that I built in Excel, but then realized I can do something similar by merging.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1121 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

Trading is the accumulation of edges. The edge I am pursuing now is understanding market profile. The motivation for pursuing that particular skill is to improve total trade efficiency, meaning, having better accuracy at knowing what a trade has to offer and executing accordingly.

The intended result is to increase my profit factor, decrease my per trade operating cost %, and smooth out my equity curve. The longer term goal of which is to support my belief in trading larger size, which will enable me to trade full time.

I currently can trade 1-2 contracts fairly well, but cannot get beyond that with any sense of calm or confidence. Both of those are psychological issues, and I do things to exercise those areas as best I can, but there are also tangible things I can do to assist with my psychological work.

Probably the most important trade statistic to me, over time, is Profit Factor. Currently I strive to maintain a profit factor of 2. I'll accept 1.6 as "close enough" on paper, but not internally. And even then, many times I will overtrade to get there, and the transaction costs eat up far more than I believe is necessary.

There are some days, like Friday, where taking small targets and small stops might be the best approach. There are other days where having large stops and large targets might work better. And a few times where small stops and large targets are ideal. I want to have a better sense of why, when and where.

Taking a guess at the type of day is really not that time consuming after a few weeks of watching it, particularly after trading as long as I have. I knew the motion, just never realized how it manifested in TPO profile view. But now that I do, it makes it easier to categorize the day, and the more I do it the faster that shift willl be recognized. Once that process is internalized it will not really require any additional effort, it will just be what I "see". And as that starts to sink in my ability to adjust my trade strategy accordingly will become more fluid and natural.

It is easier to break a goal down into smaller steps than just to have a goal to "trade full time" or "make x amount". Even though those may be ultimate goals of mine, I stopped trying to put a timeline on it. Instead I attempt to dissect and reconstruct smaller pieces, knowing that as I do it supports my longer goal, and as long as I am progressing there is nothing to worry about.

For me, being a futures.io (formerly BMT) member means having trading "buddies" to talk with, joke with, support when they need it, get support when needed, a feeling of community. Getting little how-to tips, or guidance, or sharing battle stories. What prompted me to get that thought above organized enough to put here just now, started with a simple question by @r3algood. Those type of questions are stimulating to me, and just one reason I enjoy journaling online.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1122 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

Weekly value and control price for 4/15/13 through 4/19/13




Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1123 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

I may trade mini silver... My stepfather has dealt in gold and silver for over 20 years. Definitely a swing, silver is way too spiky for me.

It may be a week or month before I take a trade, no idea even right now.




And I downlodaded MICRO gold to play with some. Saw a post by another trader where he was trading micro euro, which I have done before because it is "real" but not dangerous, and have been wanting to expand my mind around trading something I do not know to help me rely only on my training and not my experience.

That is a weird thought, but my experience also holds some damage. I am curious to see what happens if I come to trading as the person I am today with nothing of what I have felt.

I carry psychological scars from losing millions. Millions. Lifestyle, identity, security, certainty... all lost. And I was at the helm as it happened. And I know it holds me back in my trading. I see it more when I post here than when I am by myself. And as an outsider, I also see that I am a better trader than I benefit from, and the issue is a responsive reaction to uncertainty that was a learned behavior. After spending my entire life prior to not being concerned with uncertainty.

I completely amaze myself sometimes at how risk averse I have become, how hard my defense kicks in when I try to go against it.

The "fool me once" syndrome.

Older. I had drinks with a business mentor a few years ago, he is probably 15 years older than me. While I was talking about all the losses I had he laughed and said, "You are young and can make it up, but running out of chances to lose again". I love the guy, and he meant well, but what a fucked up thing to have in the back of my mind when it comes to risk.

That is no where near the deepest scar, just a layer.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1124 (permalink)
r3algood
Little Rock, Arkansas
 
 
Posts: 198 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 106 given, 108 received


josh View Post
@r3algood, a question for you: what does it mean to you to "trade the chart in front of you?" Can you be more specific? It is an oft-repeated cliche in trading, but I'd like to hear some more concrete ideas about this if you will.

@josh

For me, "the chart in front of me" means my trading time frame chart where I make my buy and sell decisions and manage the trade from. I use multiple time frames in my analysis, but that is just that analysis. My trading is done on the chart "in front of me".

I can't trade 3-5 charts at once, but I sure can quickly glance pre-session and at times mid-session at my analysis time frames and get back to my trading or decision chart.


@GaryD

"Taking a guess at the type of day is really not that time consuming after a few weeks of watching it, particularly after trading as long as I have. I knew the motion, just never realized how it manifested in TPO profile view. But now that I do, it makes it easier to categorize the day, and the more I do it the faster that shift willl be recognized. Once that process is internalized it will not really require any additional effort, it will just be what I "see". And as that starts to sink in my ability to adjust my trade strategy accordingly will become more fluid and natural."

YES! You completely understood what I was asking with my questions about identifying the day type and your idea of the mental gas tank. If you can fit that type of analysis in to your day without making it the main focus of your trading then by all means YES do that!

Essentially, you aren't trading the day type or category, you are trading the price action of the day regardless of the day type. By you knowing the day type (or having an educated guess) it gives you an edge in anticipating and reacting to unfolding price action.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to r3algood for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1125 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


r3algood View Post
@josh

For me, "the chart in front of me" means my trading time frame chart where I make my buy and sell decisions and manage the trade from. I use multiple time frames in my analysis, but that is just that analysis. My trading is done on the chart "in front of me".

Understood. But I am not there yet in TPO read. The whole thing has only been a focus of mine for a month or so. I am getting there, and the time I put in before helped a lot in the learning curve, but there is something between reading something and acting on something, and also something between acting on something and knowing something. At one time in my life the believing was enough, today I would rather watch for ahwile. Some call that "pussy", but I have tried that as a motivating factor too. For now I will over-process.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1126 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1127 (permalink)
 josh 
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,055 given, 14,517 received

I like your chart Gary. Just to be clear, in this case gap and excess are also areas of minus development. A good thing to know might be, what is the controlling price above (above the 91s, 92s, etc., off the top of your chart there)? Said another way, if the market breaks the control of whatever price you have determined to be the controlling price (looks like about 88.25), what controlling price might the market be attracted to above (or below)? I really prefer Steidlmayer's take, more so than Dalton's, which I think you have said before too.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to josh for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1128 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

Monday - price is testing the high third of last week's value area. Responsive selling is anticipated between 89.15-89.45, with a possible control price around 88.25 and weekly value extending down to 87.64.






Longer term, W5 remains in play prior to the open with a preferred target / buy zone around 83.22.





Price will most likely open RTH above Friday's range, out of balance from the prior RTH session, but inside range and balance on the larger view.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1129 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

Gold continues to accept value higher, but has returned to the NPOC left from the wide selloff distribution. Gold has had a strong correlative pull on crude since the selloff.



Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1130 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

ES is coming off a local DB. I have not been watching it much and have no opinion of correlation with CL right now.




Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1131 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

This will be CL's 3rd attempt to break the W4 resistance, and should price take out 89.44 I would expect continuation to the upside, with 90.10-90.50 and 91.80-92.25 as targets.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1132 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

But until that happens I am leaning to the short side.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1133 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


josh View Post
I like your chart Gary. Just to be clear, in this case gap and excess are also areas of minus development. A good thing to know might be, what is the controlling price above (above the 91s, 92s, etc., off the top of your chart there)? Said another way, if the market breaks the control of whatever price you have determined to be the controlling price (looks like about 88.25), what controlling price might the market be attracted to above (or below)? I really prefer Steidlmayer's take, more so than Dalton's, which I think you have said before too.


Yeah, I am just getting it on the chart but read them all the same in regards to minus development. I am still using wave structure for targets, slowly mixing in the value. In this case 90.50 and 92.25.

Have not messed with it enough to prefer one guy over the other, both are better than I am.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1134 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

What I am watching as of 4-22-13


Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1135 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


josh View Post
I really prefer Steidlmayer's take, more so than Dalton's, which I think you have said before too.


Actually, I have gotten lazy about finishing Dalton's books. I am working on it, but lost some momentum. Fell asleep again yesterday while trying to read. But I have flipped through both books, and am about 100 pages into each of them, both layed out on my desk begging for attention.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1136 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

Price is less than 10 cents from changing my strategy for the day lol!

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1137 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

Respecting the low side of weekly value...

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1138 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011





RTH price was contained by last week's value.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1139 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011





Still fighting to escape the W4 zone...

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1140 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011





And failing again. One of the things tricky about crude oil, is it can test an area until it convinces you it won't hold.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1141 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

Major resistance held again in the overnight session and value continues to develop around the weekly control price.



GaryD View Post
Weekly value and control price for 4/15/13 through 4/19/13






Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1142 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1143 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011




Entered at bottom of yesterday's value after rejection out of major resistance in ON. Footprint showed what I perceived as absorbtion.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1144 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011





Got me the first attempt for 15 ticks. But still watching the higher resistance. Currently fading a OTF market...

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1145 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

got me twice. I am out for an hour.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1146 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

I just got filled and stopped out on a 2 contract long, 88.80 and 88.65. Twitter hack. Done.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1147 (permalink)
 josh 
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,055 given, 14,517 received


GaryD View Post
I just got filled and stopped out on a 2 contract long, 88.80 and 88.65. Twitter hack. Done.

Be thankful it was only that much, a lot of people just lost a LOT of money for no good reason. ES spiked 16 handles down and up. Headline risk... sucks but we have to live with it.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to josh for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1148 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


josh View Post
Be thankful it was only that much, a lot of people just lost a LOT of money for no good reason. ES spiked 16 handles down and up. Headline risk... sucks but we have to live with it.


Not this afternoon I don't. That was enough to just piss me off, and I also have no idea how this market will respond, but I doubt as expected. And, 3 losing trades in a row. Out.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1149 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

Of course the trade would have been a winner... I just got back in the house.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1150 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011





Same resistance area, different day. That 89.45 is a tough line apparently.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1151 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

With crude retreating from that overhead zone what was the 8th time on a 30m chart, opening in range but below value, I had anticipated a neutral day type and my first two trades were short. I had up to 15-20 ticks on each entry and then taken out 2x in a row.

Took a break, came back to see the breakout to the upside and waited for a good long entry. price kept hitting 89.00 and bouncing up 10-15 ticks, but I figured that line would washout before heading higher, and wwaited over and over for it to happen. I had two limit orders waiting, and got filled and stopped in one Tweet.





Then the market came back to normal and up it went, but I was no longer in a good state of mind to trade and got out for a couple hours.

Net -86.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1152 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

I was down a couple hundred dollars today on 2 losses, nothing unusual but wanted to regroup and came back with the idea that I would nail a long trade. Wait for the perfect entry. Patiently waited for 89.00 to break, and it seemed like it took forever.

I set my orders and was prepared to drag the lines around.

I cannot believe I was caught right in the moment of the Twitter mishap. The odds are like getting hit by lightning. I saw the market try to normalize, and it did finish at the HOD as I had expected and the reason I was entering. In my mind, I nailed a perfect entry, but could never prove it.

It felt unfair. I felt like my "luck" was way off. It was a psychological hit and so I walked away. If I then took another trade it would have been without any confidence, probably in revenge.

Drove around, bank, grocery, friend's house. I do not have any other work going this week. Sat outside and made it through another chapter of Markets in Profile. Got sleepy. I don;t know why that is so hard for me to get through.

Added a 2-period Vwap to my footprint chart, starts at RTH and has a 2nd period for everything else. I figured I would rather see cumulative delta on the RTH, but still wanted to see pre-market.

TPO value fell slightly today, but volume value rose to the top.




Watching now for continuation, and I would try a swing tonight if I were not on trade probation due to my day. Wanting to get that loss back is the worst reason to get in.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1153 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011




Trying something new to see if I can let go of 1mVSA

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1154 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011




I was going to sim swing the long, but the breakout was not convincing. cancelling the sim trade.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1155 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

That market should have bolted higher on that break, but it didn't. It trapped traders who were hoping for a pullback, and that drove price higher into the ETH close, but there should have been an explosion. Boom.

What that suggests to me is 1) there is still downside pressure or 2) my zone is off.

Really, price is still range bound / bracketing. Weekly ETH value has not changed.. And as ballistic as ES was today, breaking the LSP, crude could barely break range?

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1156 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

And, while nothing happens exactly the same, if CL were going to spike bottom at a failed W5, it should have done it with more conviction, or at least I think that because it has before. It's like it is denying the move lower.

I guess I should allow the ON session to decide for me... I am not trading tonight anyway, maybe sim for something to do, but even in sim I have lost interest in the long already.

Crude zones are hard to define tightly, meaning within 30-50 ticks. The exploration beyond the zone often tells the real story. And often took my stop first. Why did I choose crude? I often look as ES charts and think, that is such a well-mannered market. So polite and respectful. Then I look at crude and think, crude.

Momentum based versus back and fill.

Which goes back to, crude should have taken off like a rocket if the break were the real thing.

In fact, I am taking the stance that it failed and is still in consolidation, and this W5 is not over yet. Crude is a stop finding machine. What if this was a major washout? The daily volume was intense, but yet the range persists.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1157 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

Looking back, crude tried to have a neutral day but ES had it trapped. It looks like a double distribution trend day, and referring to MP terms I am so full of it but forcing the language, but when crude took that high and failed...

If crude breaks out it it usually obvious.

There were traders anticipating the neutral day, that is why when it did break above the IBx1 high it rode the 2sd so hard. Short covering.






Genius trading would be if the Twitter hack was by a hedge fund. That move bounced off so many different confluence factors.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1158 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

Of course, to play devil's advocate, the Twitter thing in itself was new territory. Maybe the break was muted as traders try to decide what that spike means, what the implications of mass false news could be, conspiracy talk I am sure is not limited to me.

Wait and see.

One thing I see is that traders are programmed to react in a certain way, and they did, and that does not mean much in this case. This is new ground. The buy and trend day out of excess, yes that was probably likely. I read it wrong being below value but that is OK.

The fight is still going over the red zone.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1159 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

Still moving things around, re-shaping, re-grouping. VSA is taking a smaller position. Footprint taking a larger one. ETH MP got spread out, RTH MP went to the execution screen. RTH vs ETH management charts switched from vertical to horizontal emphasis. Long-tern analysis moved to center from far right. ES went to the less used area.



Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1160 (permalink)
 Silver Dragon 
Legendary Data Wizard!!!
Cincinnati Ohio
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TastyWorks
Broker: TastyWorks
Trading: FX, Stocks, Options
 
Silver Dragon's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,012 since Feb 2011
Thanks: 5,770 given, 4,888 received


GaryD View Post
Still moving things around, re-shaping, re-grouping. VSA is taking a smaller position. Footprint taking a larger one. ETH MP got spread out, RTH MP went to the execution screen. RTH vs ETH management charts switched from vertical to horizontal emphasis. Long-tern analysis moved to center from far right. ES went to the less used area.



@GaryD

All this stuff seems complicated compared to what you used to trade: Does it work? Not criticizing, just curious.

Edit: didnt finish my thought.. Does it work as well as your old system?

Robert

nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Silver Dragon for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1161 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

What event would bring W5? That would be a major move in recent price perception.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1162 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

Perception of value is relevant to timeframe. CL did continue up. And to where is a question of longer term value.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1163 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

Up and back in the ON. Made it around 90.00 then back to 89.30. EIA today, inventories fell rather than increased according to API, open was above yesterday's range. A period opening drive...

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1164 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011




If this new setup works as I think it might, that is the type of bar I am looking for.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1165 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011




Retest of ON high with heavy absorbtion, I think.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1166 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

ES trying to close a gap, bringing a little heat, but price is flattening out across the top of that footprint entry bar.



Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1167 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

My wife just left to go shopping, said she would invite me but figured I would not leave my "post". lol! Someone needs to keep an eye on these things 24/7.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1168 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

Bringing my stop in some

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1169 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011




Closed

I do not like that it is hanging out. More like flag, and no excess.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1170 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011





I'll take that as a "win".



Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1171 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

scalped it back + 7. Bad habit, I know, but a lot easier.




There was another absorbtion bar. Countertrend for sure at this point, riding +2 SD on both ETH and RTH vwap.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1172 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011




Price came back into value, then tested the TPO VAH. Short 2, may take one off. Going to ride the other.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1173 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

1 off 90.12, BE stop the 2nd

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1174 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1175 (permalink)
 josh 
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,055 given, 14,517 received

@GaryD, recently Sierra added a background type to the Number Bars V2 study called "Ask/Bid Volume Split Profile" which I requested them to do, because of some of greenr's cool looking charts. It is similar to what you have here, except that there is a separate profile per bar for bid and ask, and it shows very clearly which side the volume was on (though yours shows it with the dominant coloring as well). I just wanted to mention it since it's a new addition and something you might enjoy trying. Cheers mate!


Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to josh for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1176 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


Silver Dragon View Post
@GaryD

All this stuff seems complicated compared to what you used to trade: Does it work? Not criticizing, just curious.

Edit: didnt finish my thought.. Does it work as well as your old system?

Robert


The short answer is NO.

The long answer;

I am trying to rewire some things that cause me to have more fear than I think is needed, and the goal is to have a better understanding of what to expect and why. In the process I find myself doing all kinds of things that are not productive.
  • I view the market from two separate perspectives, my old one and this new one. I trust new things when I shouldn't and then don't trust them when I should.
  • I misinterpret information based on context.
  • I think I am going to follow one thing and wind up fading it instead.
  • I let one profitable scalp after another turn on me.


But staying with it.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1177 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


Silver Dragon View Post
@GaryD

All this stuff seems complicated compared to what you used to trade: Does it work? Not criticizing, just curious.

Edit: didnt finish my thought.. Does it work as well as your old system?

Robert


Here is an example of how I am attempting to define resistance in terms of MP and it is not working.





Versus a 6 range chart


Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1178 (permalink)
 zander931 
Portland, OR, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: Investor r/t, X_Trader, ToS
Broker: AMP/IQfeed
Trading: ES
 
zander931's Avatar
 
Posts: 493 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 1,496 given, 1,208 received


GaryD View Post
Here is an example of how I am attempting to define resistance in terms of MP and it is not working.





Versus a 6 range chart


Hey Gary, I've been following your journal for awhile and have gained some wonderful insights from it. In an effort to give back, I'd like to offer my humble opinion regarding your recent MP support/resistance comments.

Just a small note... This is all based on my (limited) knowledge and experience with market profile. So don't just take my word for it

Simply defining excess (in the terms of buying or selling tails, gaps, spikes, etc...) and trying to trade solely off of those references may not be effective in the long run. Everything must be taken in context.

For instance...

I don't personally trade CL, but from the chart you posted it looks like crude opened out of range, leaving a six day balance in the dust. You are obviously much more involved in the CL market than I, and I'm sure you had your reasons for the trade decisions you made today, but based on that information alone, I'd be stalking a long right from the open (of course, it's rather easy for me to say that in hindsight )

You may already consider all this, I admittedly haven't kept up with your new thread, so I don't know. But I thought I'd throw it out there.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to zander931 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1179 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


zander931 View Post
Hey Gary, I've been following your journal for awhile and have gained some wonderful insights from it. In an effort to give back, I'd like to offer my humble opinion regarding your recent MP support/resistance comments.

Just a small note... This is all based on my (limited) knowledge and experience with market profile. So don't just take my word for it

Simply defining excess (in the terms of buying or selling tails, gaps, spikes, etc...) and trying to trade solely off of those references may not be effective in the long run. Everything must be taken in context.

For instance...

I don't personally trade CL, but from the chart you posted it looks like crude opened out of range, leaving a six day balance in the dust. You are obviously much more involved in the CL market than I, and I'm sure you had your reasons for the trade decisions you made today, but based on that information alone, I'd be stalking a long right from the open (of course, it's rather easy for me to say that in hindsight )

You may already consider all this, I admittedly haven't kept up with your new thread, so I don't know. But I thought I'd throw it out there.


My nemesis is fear. It was a learned behavior for me, but I have adopted it as my own. I am trying to replace it with better understanding.

My trading developed out of some weird circumstances, a lot of trial and error, and a need to survive. I developed a sense of some things but not others, and even what I felt I "knew", I was not always sure why. Then as I was casually reading some posts, catching up with what I had missed over how ever many months, I read something that sounded completely foreign to me in the language but was putting things I "knew" into order and giving them definitions that I lacked. So I have decided to go hard core down that path to obtaining a greater depth of knowledge. I have removed almost everything I watched previously, believing it is making room for new information, but it leaves me feeling a bit lost some days.

The 5-day balance, I see now, I guess I saw then. I am digesting as I watch. Sometimes I see myself doing things that make no sense to me afterwards, something to do with stirring the pot. It is frustrating for sure. But I am not getting "hurt" exactly. I was wrong today, but bailed fast. And I watch a lot more than I trade.

The good news, I am learning a lot. And the books I am reading now are far beyond what I could even begin to assimilate a few years ago. At least what I read makes sense immediately. But in real time I still hesitate, stumble, contradict, etc.

If I were scalping as usual I would be doing much better, that is a fact. I do find myself "scalping back" a lot of my learning mishaps. But I never really had a lot of confidence in that style. It was a lot of fight or flight, and extremely stressful on me to stay in that zone for any length of time. Hopefully this year I will bring it all back together and come out stronger, calmer, better clarity, more confidence.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1180 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

There is a very lonely looking profile bar, whose NPOC seemed to be calling the market today. I watched price just stay pressed hard against the top until it finally hit, and then in near perfect synchronicity it let off, as I assume savvy traders took their profits.





That area coincides with the 618 of what was recently defined as W3, and the 50% of the major move down, as well as the bottom of W1 (not to be exceeded...) which was also the major neckline that appears to have been a catalyst for the major drop.





Of course, there is always another story, and in this case a MAJOR abc might have completed...

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1181 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

Meanwhile, ES changed it's mind about whatever problems it was having last week, and is approaching the test of the 786.





Which is also the VAL / NPOC area.





ES put in a very tight range neutral day, a heavy contrast to CL's full on trend day.

I used to pay a lot of attention to multiple market confluence correlation. ES 1580ish and CL 92ish is an example.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1182 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


zander931 View Post
I'd like to offer my humble opinion regarding your recent MP support/resistance comments.


One the positive side, even though I currently am struggling with it, I do see the market respond to it better than anything I have watched up to this point. NPOC and VWAP especially.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1183 (permalink)
 zander931 
Portland, OR, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: Investor r/t, X_Trader, ToS
Broker: AMP/IQfeed
Trading: ES
 
zander931's Avatar
 
Posts: 493 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 1,496 given, 1,208 received


GaryD View Post
One the positive side, even though I currently am struggling with it, I do see the market respond to it better than anything I have watched up to this point. NPOC and VWAP especially.

Absolutely. I'm amazed how I often I see price respond to those areas of acceptance---often getting rejected immediately or congesting for awhile. Yesterday the ES stopped to the tick at a NVPOC to conclude that ridiculous mini-crash.

I reread my first comment, and I am now nervous I was careless with the language I used. By no means was I trying to insinuate you don't observe market context. I was only suggesting the usefulness of using market profile reference points in conjunction with that context. Hopefully it came across correctly the first time, and I'm just paranoid !

Nice CL observations btw

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to zander931 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1184 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


zander931 View Post
I reread my first comment, and I am now nervous I was careless with the language I used. By no means was I trying to insinuate you don't observe market context. I was only suggesting the usefulness of using market profile reference points in conjunction with that context. Hopefully it came across correctly the first time, and I'm just paranoid !


No issues here. I am often the first to say I don't have a clue what I am doing.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1185 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011




Overlaying the Monthly Vwap on the 120m shows additional confluence with the lower side of last month's value and the upper edge of this month's.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1186 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011




Pulling the drawings from the 120m onto the TPO chart.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1187 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


zander931 View Post

For instance... from the chart you posted it looks like crude opened out of range, leaving a six day balance in the dust.


Going back over it, I guess the question was, what made it a 6 day balance instead of a 7 day? I was viewing that as being the unfair high of that entire grouping. It was wrong, but why?


Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1188 (permalink)
 josh 
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,055 given, 14,517 received


GaryD View Post
Going back over it, I guess the question was, what made it a 6 day balance instead of a 7 day? I was viewing that as being the unfair high of that entire grouping. It was wrong, but why?

It/you were not wrong--there is no right or wrong, and that's an important point I think. You could say that your view did not align with the market's, but it won't always, so it's not a matter of your view being wrong, it just did not coincide with today's market activity.

Of those 7 profiles in that group, three of them (including the last 2 before today) have almost the same high, and the last two days prior to today had almost the same range, with the last day before today being an inside day.

I do not have this setup up, but what if you merge those 7 profiles (prior to today)--what does it look like?

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to josh for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1189 (permalink)
 zander931 
Portland, OR, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: Investor r/t, X_Trader, ToS
Broker: AMP/IQfeed
Trading: ES
 
zander931's Avatar
 
Posts: 493 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 1,496 given, 1,208 received


GaryD View Post
Going back over it, I guess the question was, what made it a 6 day balance instead of a 7 day? I was viewing that as being the unfair high of that entire grouping. It was wrong, but why?



josh View Post
It/you were not wrong--there is no right or wrong, and that's an important point I think. You could say that your view did not align with the market's, but it won't always, so it's not a matter of your view being wrong, it just did not coincide with today's market activity.

Of those 7 profiles in that group, three of them (including the last 2 before today) have almost the same high, and the last two days prior to today had almost the same range, with the last day before today being an inside day.

I do not have this setup up, but what if you merge those 7 profiles (prior to today)--what does it look like?

I'd do what Josh suggested and create a micro-composite of those seven profiles. I didn't pull up CL on my charts, but (just at first glance) it looks as if you may have a nice Gaussian distribution(ish) structure there with excess at either end.

@josh, by no means am I disagreeing with you, but perhaps you could clarify your previous post for me?
I've always thought in terms of definitive "right" or "wrong" when it comes to trading decisions. If I initiate a trade and get stopped out, my analysis of the market, (no matter what variation of analysis I performed) was clearly incorrect. Or maybe only the timing was off... either way something was incorrect.

Any clarification is appreciated

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to zander931 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1190 (permalink)
 josh 
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,055 given, 14,517 received


zander931 View Post
I've always thought in terms of definitive "right" or "wrong" when it comes to trading decisions. If I initiate a trade and get stopped out, my analysis of the market, (no matter what variation of analysis I performed) was clearly incorrect. Or maybe only the timing was off... either way something was incorrect.

My point, I think (it's late), is simply this: we are shown to have been right or wrong, in retrospect only. A trading decision or analysis works out to be "right" or "wrong," but that does not automatically make it a decision that we should not have taken. For example, selling what we perceive as an unfair high is perhaps a high probability play, over a large data set, and that does not make it a "wrong" thing to do, just because it does not work on one particular day. Perhaps we can learn from this and work on our analysis for the future, but that does not mean that the idea itself was in some way "bad" necessarily (though in some cases, I think a case can be made for this). This is the general idea I think I had in my head when I wrote this.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to josh for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1191 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Custom solution
Trading: Futures & Crypto
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 50,013 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,472 given, 98,311 received


josh View Post
My point, I think (it's late), is simply this: we are shown to have been right or wrong, in retrospect only. A trading decision or analysis works out to be "right" or "wrong," but that does not automatically make it a decision that we should not have taken. For example, selling what we perceive as an unfair high is perhaps a high probability play, over a large data set, and that does not make it a "wrong" thing to do, just because it does not work on one particular day. Perhaps we can learn from this and work on our analysis for the future, but that does not mean that the idea itself was in some way "bad" necessarily (though in some cases, I think a case can be made for this). This is the general idea I think I had in my head when I wrote this.

Embrace loss. The best losers are the best traders.

Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/

Visit other sites? Please spread the word about your experience with our community!
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1192 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


josh View Post
It/you were not wrong--there is no right or wrong, and that's an important point I think. You could say that your view did not align with the market's, but it won't always, so it's not a matter of your view being wrong, it just did not coincide with today's market activity.

Of those 7 profiles in that group, three of them (including the last 2 before today) have almost the same high, and the last two days prior to today had almost the same range, with the last day before today being an inside day.

I do not have this setup up, but what if you merge those 7 profiles (prior to today)--what does it look like?





The excess top plus the gap I was reading as a sell.



When I remove that 7th day, I see the top as incomplete.



Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1193 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

Well, I did find a clue that I knew ahead of time but it got lost in trying to piece together a lot of new information. The opening type was Open Drive. And, while I try not to listen to the news as it is released, EIA had a big surprise in inventory and gasoline. Add to those that the pattern ahead of the report showed consolidation at a potential W5 top, and it suggests there were enough short positions to squeeze the crap out of that market.

Speculation on my part.

I am expecting some sort of a neutral day, as crude has run itself up into major resistance once again. 91.60-92.30 is braod overhead, with the key level being 92.00-92.25. Anticipating the low end of support as far down as yesterday's Vwap around 90.60 spreading the 1st SD between 90.30-90.90. At least that is my quick look so far today.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1194 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011


Big Mike View Post
Embrace loss. The best losers are the best traders.

Mike


Yes, but I would not want that award in a trading competition.


Being silly Mike. I know, and am not that concerened. I see that I have a lot of new stuff that has not formed into a single view yet.




GaryD View Post
How losses are handled makes or breaks a trader. Stop Losses, breakevens, goes in your favor then comes back, thought about taking the trade but didn't.

The psychological impact of major losses. Psychological losses...

Whatever the loss may be, dealing with it, and moving on to the next trade without a hit to confidence, is a required skill. Learning it takes work.

I had a day today where that has been a major conversation topic when I think to myself.


Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1195 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011




A blast from the past. I put this in a corner of my screen today. Like comfort food.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1196 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

Yesterday was a double distribution. I have split that day's profile into two, with the E period excess the top of the first half, and the F period excess low the bottom of the second.








Taking a premarket low risk short.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1197 (permalink)
 greenr 
london/england
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Sierra charts, NinjaTrader, VK Trader
Broker: CQG, AMP, VK, Kinetick
Trading: CL/6E/TF/ES
 
Posts: 952 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 562 given, 1,279 received


GaryD View Post
Yesterday was a double distribution. I have split that day's profile into two, with the E period excess the top of the first half, and the F period excess low the bottom of the second.








Taking a premarket low risk short.

Yesterday was not a doubble distribution day in my eyes

It was just a stright up elongated trend day, no doubble distrubution

If it was a doubble distribution day we would have created 2 balance/value areas which we did not

" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to greenr for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #1198 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011




Delta Divergence makes the little star

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1199 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

Or maybe a Normal day

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #1200 (permalink)
 GaryD 
Orlando, Florida
 
Experience: None
Platform: shoes
Trading: happy
 
GaryD's Avatar
 
Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

Sierra 967 has some bugs. What I know now;

1) NPOC did not cancel out from yesterday, red line still continues today.
2) Option to remove "Menu" at the top does not work.

Started this thread Reply With Quote


futures io Trading Community Trading Journals > Like a turtle to his balcony...


Last Updated on August 5, 2013


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing
 

Journal Challenge w/$1,800 in prizes!

April
     



Copyright © 2021 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, Ph: +507 833-9432 (Panama and Intl), +1 888-312-3001 (USA and Canada), info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts