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Like a turtle to his balcony...
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Like a turtle to his balcony...

  #1151 (permalink)
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With crude retreating from that overhead zone what was the 8th time on a 30m chart, opening in range but below value, I had anticipated a neutral day type and my first two trades were short. I had up to 15-20 ticks on each entry and then taken out 2x in a row.

Took a break, came back to see the breakout to the upside and waited for a good long entry. price kept hitting 89.00 and bouncing up 10-15 ticks, but I figured that line would washout before heading higher, and wwaited over and over for it to happen. I had two limit orders waiting, and got filled and stopped in one Tweet.

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Then the market came back to normal and up it went, but I was no longer in a good state of mind to trade and got out for a couple hours.

Net -86.


Last edited by GaryD; April 23rd, 2013 at 06:27 PM.
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  #1152 (permalink)
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I was down a couple hundred dollars today on 2 losses, nothing unusual but wanted to regroup and came back with the idea that I would nail a long trade. Wait for the perfect entry. Patiently waited for 89.00 to break, and it seemed like it took forever.

I set my orders and was prepared to drag the lines around.

I cannot believe I was caught right in the moment of the Twitter mishap. The odds are like getting hit by lightning. I saw the market try to normalize, and it did finish at the HOD as I had expected and the reason I was entering. In my mind, I nailed a perfect entry, but could never prove it.

It felt unfair. I felt like my "luck" was way off. It was a psychological hit and so I walked away. If I then took another trade it would have been without any confidence, probably in revenge.

Drove around, bank, grocery, friend's house. I do not have any other work going this week. Sat outside and made it through another chapter of Markets in Profile. Got sleepy. I don;t know why that is so hard for me to get through.

Added a 2-period Vwap to my footprint chart, starts at RTH and has a 2nd period for everything else. I figured I would rather see cumulative delta on the RTH, but still wanted to see pre-market.

TPO value fell slightly today, but volume value rose to the top.

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Watching now for continuation, and I would try a swing tonight if I were not on trade probation due to my day. Wanting to get that loss back is the worst reason to get in.


Last edited by GaryD; April 23rd, 2013 at 10:56 PM. Reason: add chart
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Trying something new to see if I can let go of 1mVSA

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  #1154 (permalink)
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I was going to sim swing the long, but the breakout was not convincing. cancelling the sim trade.

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That market should have bolted higher on that break, but it didn't. It trapped traders who were hoping for a pullback, and that drove price higher into the ETH close, but there should have been an explosion. Boom.

What that suggests to me is 1) there is still downside pressure or 2) my zone is off.

Really, price is still range bound / bracketing. Weekly ETH value has not changed.. And as ballistic as ES was today, breaking the LSP, crude could barely break range?

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  #1156 (permalink)
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And, while nothing happens exactly the same, if CL were going to spike bottom at a failed W5, it should have done it with more conviction, or at least I think that because it has before. It's like it is denying the move lower.

I guess I should allow the ON session to decide for me... I am not trading tonight anyway, maybe sim for something to do, but even in sim I have lost interest in the long already.

Crude zones are hard to define tightly, meaning within 30-50 ticks. The exploration beyond the zone often tells the real story. And often took my stop first. Why did I choose crude? I often look as ES charts and think, that is such a well-mannered market. So polite and respectful. Then I look at crude and think, crude.

Momentum based versus back and fill.

Which goes back to, crude should have taken off like a rocket if the break were the real thing.

In fact, I am taking the stance that it failed and is still in consolidation, and this W5 is not over yet. Crude is a stop finding machine. What if this was a major washout? The daily volume was intense, but yet the range persists.


Last edited by GaryD; April 23rd, 2013 at 11:19 PM.
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  #1157 (permalink)
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Looking back, crude tried to have a neutral day but ES had it trapped. It looks like a double distribution trend day, and referring to MP terms I am so full of it but forcing the language, but when crude took that high and failed...

If crude breaks out it it usually obvious.

There were traders anticipating the neutral day, that is why when it did break above the IBx1 high it rode the 2sd so hard. Short covering.

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Genius trading would be if the Twitter hack was by a hedge fund. That move bounced off so many different confluence factors.


Last edited by GaryD; April 23rd, 2013 at 11:31 PM.
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  #1158 (permalink)
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Of course, to play devil's advocate, the Twitter thing in itself was new territory. Maybe the break was muted as traders try to decide what that spike means, what the implications of mass false news could be, conspiracy talk I am sure is not limited to me.

Wait and see.

One thing I see is that traders are programmed to react in a certain way, and they did, and that does not mean much in this case. This is new ground. The buy and trend day out of excess, yes that was probably likely. I read it wrong being below value but that is OK.

The fight is still going over the red zone.

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  #1159 (permalink)
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Still moving things around, re-shaping, re-grouping. VSA is taking a smaller position. Footprint taking a larger one. ETH MP got spread out, RTH MP went to the execution screen. RTH vs ETH management charts switched from vertical to horizontal emphasis. Long-tern analysis moved to center from far right. ES went to the less used area.


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Last edited by GaryD; April 23rd, 2013 at 11:51 PM.
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GaryD View Post
Still moving things around, re-shaping, re-grouping. VSA is taking a smaller position. Footprint taking a larger one. ETH MP got spread out, RTH MP went to the execution screen. RTH vs ETH management charts switched from vertical to horizontal emphasis. Long-tern analysis moved to center from far right. ES went to the less used area.


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@GaryD

All this stuff seems complicated compared to what you used to trade: https://futures.io/trading-journals/12409-catching-big-waves-traders-journal-surfing-markets-188.html#post207763 Does it work? Not criticizing, just curious.

Edit: didnt finish my thought.. Does it work as well as your old system?

Robert

nosce te ipsum

You make your own opportunities in life.

Last edited by Silver Dragon; April 24th, 2013 at 12:28 AM.
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