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Like a turtle to his balcony...
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Like a turtle to his balcony...

  #1121 (permalink)
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Trading is the accumulation of edges. The edge I am pursuing now is understanding market profile. The motivation for pursuing that particular skill is to improve total trade efficiency, meaning, having better accuracy at knowing what a trade has to offer and executing accordingly.

The intended result is to increase my profit factor, decrease my per trade operating cost %, and smooth out my equity curve. The longer term goal of which is to support my belief in trading larger size, which will enable me to trade full time.

I currently can trade 1-2 contracts fairly well, but cannot get beyond that with any sense of calm or confidence. Both of those are psychological issues, and I do things to exercise those areas as best I can, but there are also tangible things I can do to assist with my psychological work.

Probably the most important trade statistic to me, over time, is Profit Factor. Currently I strive to maintain a profit factor of 2. I'll accept 1.6 as "close enough" on paper, but not internally. And even then, many times I will overtrade to get there, and the transaction costs eat up far more than I believe is necessary.

There are some days, like Friday, where taking small targets and small stops might be the best approach. There are other days where having large stops and large targets might work better. And a few times where small stops and large targets are ideal. I want to have a better sense of why, when and where.

Taking a guess at the type of day is really not that time consuming after a few weeks of watching it, particularly after trading as long as I have. I knew the motion, just never realized how it manifested in TPO profile view. But now that I do, it makes it easier to categorize the day, and the more I do it the faster that shift willl be recognized. Once that process is internalized it will not really require any additional effort, it will just be what I "see". And as that starts to sink in my ability to adjust my trade strategy accordingly will become more fluid and natural.

It is easier to break a goal down into smaller steps than just to have a goal to "trade full time" or "make x amount". Even though those may be ultimate goals of mine, I stopped trying to put a timeline on it. Instead I attempt to dissect and reconstruct smaller pieces, knowing that as I do it supports my longer goal, and as long as I am progressing there is nothing to worry about.

For me, being a futures.io (formerly BMT) member means having trading "buddies" to talk with, joke with, support when they need it, get support when needed, a feeling of community. Getting little how-to tips, or guidance, or sharing battle stories. What prompted me to get that thought above organized enough to put here just now, started with a simple question by @r3algood. Those type of questions are stimulating to me, and just one reason I enjoy journaling online.


Last edited by GaryD; April 21st, 2013 at 11:57 AM.
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  #1122 (permalink)
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Weekly value and control price for 4/15/13 through 4/19/13

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Last edited by GaryD; April 21st, 2013 at 08:04 PM. Reason: replace daily chart
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  #1123 (permalink)
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I may trade mini silver... My stepfather has dealt in gold and silver for over 20 years. Definitely a swing, silver is way too spiky for me.

It may be a week or month before I take a trade, no idea even right now.

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And I downlodaded MICRO gold to play with some. Saw a post by another trader where he was trading micro euro, which I have done before because it is "real" but not dangerous, and have been wanting to expand my mind around trading something I do not know to help me rely only on my training and not my experience.

That is a weird thought, but my experience also holds some damage. I am curious to see what happens if I come to trading as the person I am today with nothing of what I have felt.

I carry psychological scars from losing millions. Millions. Lifestyle, identity, security, certainty... all lost. And I was at the helm as it happened. And I know it holds me back in my trading. I see it more when I post here than when I am by myself. And as an outsider, I also see that I am a better trader than I benefit from, and the issue is a responsive reaction to uncertainty that was a learned behavior. After spending my entire life prior to not being concerned with uncertainty.

I completely amaze myself sometimes at how risk averse I have become, how hard my defense kicks in when I try to go against it.

The "fool me once" syndrome.

Older. I had drinks with a business mentor a few years ago, he is probably 15 years older than me. While I was talking about all the losses I had he laughed and said, "You are young and can make it up, but running out of chances to lose again". I love the guy, and he meant well, but what a fucked up thing to have in the back of my mind when it comes to risk.

That is no where near the deepest scar, just a layer.


Last edited by GaryD; April 21st, 2013 at 11:00 PM.
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  #1124 (permalink)
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josh View Post
@r3algood, a question for you: what does it mean to you to "trade the chart in front of you?" Can you be more specific? It is an oft-repeated cliche in trading, but I'd like to hear some more concrete ideas about this if you will.

@josh

For me, "the chart in front of me" means my trading time frame chart where I make my buy and sell decisions and manage the trade from. I use multiple time frames in my analysis, but that is just that analysis. My trading is done on the chart "in front of me".

I can't trade 3-5 charts at once, but I sure can quickly glance pre-session and at times mid-session at my analysis time frames and get back to my trading or decision chart.


@GaryD

"Taking a guess at the type of day is really not that time consuming after a few weeks of watching it, particularly after trading as long as I have. I knew the motion, just never realized how it manifested in TPO profile view. But now that I do, it makes it easier to categorize the day, and the more I do it the faster that shift willl be recognized. Once that process is internalized it will not really require any additional effort, it will just be what I "see". And as that starts to sink in my ability to adjust my trade strategy accordingly will become more fluid and natural."

YES! You completely understood what I was asking with my questions about identifying the day type and your idea of the mental gas tank. If you can fit that type of analysis in to your day without making it the main focus of your trading then by all means YES do that!

Essentially, you aren't trading the day type or category, you are trading the price action of the day regardless of the day type. By you knowing the day type (or having an educated guess) it gives you an edge in anticipating and reacting to unfolding price action.

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  #1125 (permalink)
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r3algood View Post
@josh

For me, "the chart in front of me" means my trading time frame chart where I make my buy and sell decisions and manage the trade from. I use multiple time frames in my analysis, but that is just that analysis. My trading is done on the chart "in front of me".

Understood. But I am not there yet in TPO read. The whole thing has only been a focus of mine for a month or so. I am getting there, and the time I put in before helped a lot in the learning curve, but there is something between reading something and acting on something, and also something between acting on something and knowing something. At one time in my life the believing was enough, today I would rather watch for ahwile. Some call that "pussy", but I have tried that as a motivating factor too. For now I will over-process.

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  #1127 (permalink)
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I like your chart Gary. Just to be clear, in this case gap and excess are also areas of minus development. A good thing to know might be, what is the controlling price above (above the 91s, 92s, etc., off the top of your chart there)? Said another way, if the market breaks the control of whatever price you have determined to be the controlling price (looks like about 88.25), what controlling price might the market be attracted to above (or below)? I really prefer Steidlmayer's take, more so than Dalton's, which I think you have said before too.

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Monday - price is testing the high third of last week's value area. Responsive selling is anticipated between 89.15-89.45, with a possible control price around 88.25 and weekly value extending down to 87.64.

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Longer term, W5 remains in play prior to the open with a preferred target / buy zone around 83.22.

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Price will most likely open RTH above Friday's range, out of balance from the prior RTH session, but inside range and balance on the larger view.

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Gold continues to accept value higher, but has returned to the NPOC left from the wide selloff distribution. Gold has had a strong correlative pull on crude since the selloff.


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ES is coming off a local DB. I have not been watching it much and have no opinion of correlation with CL right now.



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