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Like a turtle to his balcony...


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Like a turtle to his balcony...

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  #991 (permalink)
Orlando, Florida
 
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Posts: 6,462 since May 2011

I have hit a point in studying market profile where my understanding of the whole is lagging due to insufficient understanding of a part; standard deviation.

When the discussion started into that topic heavily, rather than read on I am going off on a sidetrack.

Standard deviation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

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  #992 (permalink)
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That did not take long. I built this image in Excel of standard deviation in a nutshell.





So the concept of 3-1-3, 1-2-3 and 3-2-1 distribution now seems a lot simpler from how I read it the first time through, thanks to Wikipedia.

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  #993 (permalink)
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I am getting older. 45 in July. Testostorone has taken a backseat to "been there done that". But still my mind is wired to ask the question, "what's next?" But at 44 the drive or energy needs to be dialed up some. Like caffeine. My version recently, like in the past few weeks, or a month, has been Yerba Mate. Nature's Red Bull.

Contemplating where I am chronologically has pushed me back into just having a fun time when I can. I joke a lot more, am maybe a bit rebellious or sarcastic, but just having fun. Not being as concerned about what other people think. The direction is a bit of strecthing boundaries and settling in.

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  #994 (permalink)
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Finishing the CBOT study guide today. Not that tough. Made my way through understanding standard deviation to the extent of what Wikipedia had to offer. Actually not complex at all.

But just finished a video by @Private Banker where he shows volume ladder/numbers bars in detail, and yes I see the difference between the two sides, but I also see that on the prior high pivot on the same screen. I am still making that topic maybe more complex for me than it needs to be.

I understand seeing resting orders where say the offer gets hit overwhelmingly more than the bid, and then I see where the bid gets hammered and the offer barely gets touched as price falls away, but on my charts I can also point out many other places where that occured, or looks similar anyway, that was not a "major" pivot.

Perhaps where price came back up into the prior day's value was the real area of interest, and the volume ladder was more for confirmation, like watching a 1m VSA chart more intensely at certain areas. I have set my coloring to show only a 51% or greater difference in Bid/Ask.


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  #995 (permalink)
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Trading Journals That Work

1. Make sure the journal includes observations about you and your trading and about the markets themselves.

2. Make sure the journal includes observations about your best trades.

3. Make sure the journal truly prepares you for the coming trading day.

4. Make sure the journal outlines specific steps for improvement.

5. Make sure the journal includes performance metrics.

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Like a turtle to his balcony...-trading-journals-work-brett-steenbarger.pdf  
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  #996 (permalink)
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CL ended the RTH session on Friday with a Normal Variation day type, balancing on the RTH close right on the day's POC, leaving a sizable responsive buying excess in E period from approximately 90.25-90.55. That excess also coincides with the long term major trendline/bullish channel on the daily. That has me thinking we may see more buying in that area at the start of the week.

However, the move down started with the confirmation of a higher timeframe right shoulder pivot, which could need to test the major low at around 89.80. And even then Crude may have a little farther to go, as the 240m timeframe wave formation suggests that this move could be wave c of C, with minimum completion targets of 88.93 and 88.48 respectively.





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  #997 (permalink)
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This is an uncomfortable post. Trying to focus on what I am doing "right" per Steenbarger's list, as it relates to my P&L, is not something I am currently wanting to put emphasis on. And what I am doing "right" that I do want to focus on is something I am not succesful yet at integrating into my regular trading behavior.

But, trying to satisy both sides, my higher timeframe analysis has been very good this year. I have really only had two times where I felt very strong, and both have resulted in good accuracy and good distance. While it does help me stay on the right side, it remains a sore topic for me as I push myself away from habits I have formed from the perception of necessity, and towards images I have in my mind derived from long term experience.

In other words, my analysis has for quite some time been better than I have trusted by my ultimate actions, because of time. Time.

I recently held a trade through a lot of rotational movement, thinking I was working on something inside. But after I found it was easier to hold through the heat than when I was risking profit. My perception of time actually changes depending on whether I am up or down in a trade.

So if I were to chose a topic that really deserves some attention, it is TIME.

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  #998 (permalink)
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And I am already looking at something besides the pirate thing... that was just a push. Maybe something to do with time.

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  #999 (permalink)
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Approaching prior major low

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  #1000 (permalink)
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88.50 is an area I am expecting to buy. I stayed off the sell at 94.50, and maybe this is a soft version of revenge trading. But really the majority of swings I have missed after having an unusually high amount of confluence all cumulate into a soft revenge. It may show itself in hours of study, or hundreds of pages of reading, not the typical "revenge" that does collateral damage.

I started as a swing trader. Had to change that mindset to learn to scalp. Ironic.

Or, would buy a new DB at the 786. Both are green zones on my charts.




Breaking that low on stop volume means nothing yet. and once it does, here comes the dominant zone. Two zones this close... I prefer 88.50 based on knowledge, prefer 89.50 based on the backward tendency to immediate gratification...


What I have seen traders do, is fail to acknowledge that the buy at 89.50 is worse than 88.50, regardless of which holds, and a miss at 89.50 could be made up and then some with the patience to buy at a break above 94.90. That hopefully makes sense to some, and not just me.


The thing about buying the bottom, is it is countermomentum. Les chance of it being the turm greater reward if it does become it. A break above 94.?? would be with the surge, the kind that kills swiftly when on the wrong side of.

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