Expanding on that repair theory, 94.80 is the top of the zone. But that puts the short trying to fade K period, which I am done doing. But tomorrow, if the setup looks right. Shorts being removed today has weakened the market underneath. ES has little chance of not breaking the high now.
CL sellers are absorbing the move very nicely up here... For Long Term Sellers, this is the place. That does not mean they will win, but definitely on their radar. Heavy selling will most likely wait for ES to do whatever up here.
Merging the profile back to the repair zone puts the POC at today's low.
Can you imagine what equities would be doing if there were some actual positive news that suddenly appeared? From the very bad NFP report at the open on Friday, up 32 handles, on *zero* news. Even MarketWatch, the king of BS headlines, can't think up a good one for this one. Personally, I would say "Markets up in anticipation of FOMC minutes tomorrow" if I were writing a BS headline, but that's just me
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Man, you just added the comic relief I needed after staring at this thing since yesterday!
I started to see that open zone in CL that reappeared 4x recently, and had thought before that 94.50 was the line for staying short, so today has been a long story unwinding for me. If if were not 2pm I would be short as hell right now.
Long trades are not that fun. That is part of the problem. Not just in that they are not exciting, or entertainig, but they actually bring discomfort. We do not like uncertainty.
This is a MP imprint I don't get yet. It has a single print section that suggest it will see repair. But it also ran headfirst into a major resistance zone and did it with a trend-type day. I have had several occassions of my trade understanding fighting with MP, and this is one of them. I would have shorted CL hard if I saw the same thing and ES would turn, but it wouldn't... Some days I have almost despised ES when it would not let CL do it's thing. Not today. Today I just accepted that ES was going to blow the high and I was a day early, if right at all. Not only is there the right setup in the right area, but there is the right time of day to do it in.
The day type says there should be buyers ready to react. The higher view says this is a make or break area. My hunch, wish maybe, is down. But it will do what it does. IF it moves down, the target is 88.50. The 94.50 area, spreading itself across at least a 50 tick swath, could stay a topic for awhile. It is one of those places. The last time I felt this strong was the last major bottom in crude. The shitty part is, that does not mean it will happen. That part you never know, but the where, is here.
I guess most all areas of low activity (single prints included) eventually "fill in" or "repair," but who knows when that will be? Sometimes we will have a low activity price range that is traded through multiple times, continuing to reject, but I don't know if there is an implication that it needs to be "repaired." Actually this is something I've been curious about recently. Maybe @Private Banker can give his $0.02 on this topic, I would love to hear it.
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The single prints can be filled in but when a market moves fast through an area like that, it can provide a similar fast move in the other direction. As Josh mentioned, not all areas will be repaired. What I like to do when there are two clear distributions in a profile is split out the afternoon distribution and almost treat it as another session. Reason being, there's really nothing in between. Obviously balance equals acceptance and single prints are rejection areas which is why its helpful to split the profile out in that way to provide more reference for the next session. Hopefully that makes sense.
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Yes, that does make perfect sense to me. I don't know if you saw that I did the opposite at the recent bracket, merging the profiles. What are your thoughts on that?
In that case what do you do with F period? My thought on this situation is that since the day type is "trend", go with that sentiment on the singe prints of F. Assuming competition drove it higher at that speed. The only caveat to that being that there is competition in short covering. But, I guess they are competing with other buyers regardless?
shorted the Y close area, one off. I am going to lean on the H&S theory until proven wrong. Intermediate trenline held at the open, which is against me, but there are two big event today and I am expecting somewhat contained movement ahaead of that. Opening in the singles of the DD day and returning to the approx PM split value area...
I also got a bar that I am starting to understand on VL.
And, a part of me is a little disappointed that I could not short yesterday, the plague of wanting to relive a trade. (I can tell also because of the 2 entries, the first was impatient.) But I am aware of that and still am ok. The rejection was 1 tick above the LSP, and price came off 100 ticks overnight, in my mind rejecting that afternoon value.
And another thing I really like about Sierra is that the chart window shows live net PL, not just trade PL. It ties in with the "banked risk" thought.
And that stops and targets are always independently movable, and that they have lines that tie them together. Those lines are helping me visualize core position versus scalps.
Off +30 on #2. Will wait for EIA. The high inventory levels are presumed discounted, not planning to look at the number, but have seen anything happen. I hope to some day work my way to holding through a number, but not today.
So you put F to the other side. When the day is over could you give your rationale? Wait, I think I just got it myself. Give me a chance to think on it before you answer. Price did not come down to it and find buyers, it came up through it as in the K period.
Keeping a big picture perspective. That overlapping action is corrective behavior. That is a 240m chart, those a big corrective waves on a smaller timeframe, with the "C" leg hitting the even higher time LSP +1 tick.
Not that the 240m has anything to do with today's range, but expecting continuation higher is not warranted until that breaks. 94.50 stood out like a sore thumb since Sunday night.
"The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its latest Federal Open Markets Committee Meeting earlier than planned Wednesday, a day after the transcripts were inadvertently sent out to a select few. They were released at 9 a.m. ET Wednesday instead of their anticipated release at 2 p.m. ET.
According to the Fed, about 100 congressional staffers and trade lobbyists received the minutes sometime after 2 p.m. ET on Tuesday.
The Fed has contacted the Securities and Exchange and Commodity Futures Trading commissions and its inspector general to see if there was any trading tied to the early release of information. "
I have been doing other things waiting for FOMC to pass.... now I am wondering if they really were out Monday afternoon.
I was just going with the criticism of my new avatar. Played with it again today. Actually, I think I want to stay the pirate. Sail the high seas, life of adventure, it's all about the booty...
The frog, by the way, is a little guy who sits in my wife's office. I shot it on a black background and then dropped the background out to pure black. It is something she loves. She wants me to some day do a photo of her and the frog in the same pose. Goes with her yoga thing, which is I guess not just a thing after however many years.
How are you doing this week? Did you ride that ES beast? If it was like that all the time I would consider leaving CL. (shhhh, I hope it did not hear me. It is one moody little b... eautiful thing. Well hello, CL )
I have been knocked out of two great shorts two days in a row.
I "know" that is the place, and it is almost like someone else knows, who has about 1,000,000 times more influence on the market, and only takes it there in K period.
I called it on Sunday, and that should be respected as if I called "shotgun". Don't those other traders follow the rules?
Price broke the LSP 94.47 yesterday, made it all the way to 94.48...
It broke again today, which CL is known for finding every possible stop out there, but never could get outside the redish (black charts are cooler, I hate pink) resistance area. And still the overlapping action continues. I am remaining downside biased as of today's close.
I can talk making the few stupid mistakes I made last week trying to buy and fade the lows into that sell off
But just saying
" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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We do sometimes make "stupid" mistakes, but not often. Most mistakes are instinctual mistakes, without which we would not be alive. My guess is that is where you were. But, the great thing about trading is that is old news.
I know, I see ES, and did think CL had set a major bottom not that long ago, but my take is still waiting for CL to prove it can get out.
I traded long and short today, and probably will tomorrow. But I am not taking my sights off that zone until it can escape.
Me too Ryan. So what? When it becomes too serious it gets dangerous.
I watched one of Ben's videos today, and can't help but notice his chilled attitude. And somewhat get it.
As men we think we need to step up and make something happen. I have had to in many roles throughout my life. But, if you want to trade, it is not exactly a dominant role. We are the market's bitch... as it may feel as we learn to move that direction.
And then we become priveleged to ride it. And the line of dominant/submissive goes away.
Relax, you will lose. And then you will win. You will get frustrated. And then you will feel like you are getting somewhere. But you will make it.
I took the red zone from the 240m and drew it on the TPO chart. Look at the rejection. Not necessarily from the RTH session, but in ETH. Go back over the past 2 days.
I did not think CL would fall from where it was, I thought 94.50. So now it has been tested 2x, and falling. I have to go with that, or risk the possibility of never trusting myself.
If it breaks out, fine, erase the lines and start over...
You would prefer to trust someone who looked professional, dressed professional, spoke professionally, acted professionally. Many people would not believe how much money is spent on that. What is advertising anyway?
But I have seen the images people become, and not portray but truly live as, and then seen that I do not trust apperances. I trust truth, and transparency, and real world face in the dirt experience.
Here is my hourly view of CL; short term is up in a nice channel. Weekly chart is interesting.. Assuming it continues to follow the same pattern, it may take another week or two to get back to the top of the triangle which would be around 97ish.
So what happens when it breaks out of the weekly triangle? will it break up/down or continue to move sideways. I seem to remember something about breakouts start occurring around 75% length of the triangle. I think we are there..
Robert
nosce te ipsum
You make your own opportunities in life.
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CL is weak. Has a hard time going against ES which is not letting it fall, and has so many layers of anticipated support to get through. But give ES a chance and look out.
Rejecting current value, rejected yesterday's IB low...
I'd like to see it tip over A period. If I am going to try to guess a day type, it would not be trend as there is too much momentum without a catalyst.
My dog does something similar when I want to go somewhere she doesn't. She locks herself into a stance and will not budge. She is currently scared of the neighbor and there is a tree line she will not cross. Any direction but that one she is happy. So sometimes I find us going sideways along that line seeing if I can get her comfortable. And then usually I just pick her up.
Now, similarly I am strong enough to make her go, like by picking her up. (would not drag her as ES might CL). But the first chance she gets to head in the other direction, if I am ready to go, we could run all the way home.
The price action divergence between the two is very obvoius today. But selling does not make sense to me yet, and buying seems like something I would beat myself up for afterwards for having known better.
There should be some short covering as ES approaches high. Trying to just be patient, see what happens. Price keeps fighting the edge of current value, but still not liking the price divergence.
I originally targeted to incomplete low on the TPO chart at 93.15, but still getting my head around that and wimped out today.
I allowed ES to talk me out of a trade this morning, something I have done many times before, but I don;t know what to do about it. Ignoring the pull is not wise either, and ES barely had to give up anything to send CL racing lower. Tough trade, even with the level of conviction I had this week. The market will wear me out sometimes.
Have some work to get done. Spent all day stalking a good trade and ignored the time.
This is the chart I used for my entry area today. Brand spanking new as of late last night, copying @Private Banker. It shows the value area of the prior day on today's action.
Sierra's performance report, called Trade Statistics, is very different from NT's. It looks like I will have to completely redesign my spreadsheet I was using for making a moving average. I wanted something very easy that used as few steps as possible to load the data, and built what I had been using to work with NT, but the data does not line up.
Sierra offers some points that I had not seen before, but as a trade off does not give the graphs. Not that they are required though. I very much like the "Fill to Fill" vs "Flat to Flat" option, the Average Quantity, Avg PF, Largest Winner/Loser as % of Profit/Loss. Some other things I am not sure if I need or not. I am hoping to make a new ongoing summary this weekend.
This version is "Flat to Flat". Actual total contracts traded was 36.
"Never make a post without thinking about it. " That is a quote someone should make.
Not that it is true.
For those who agree that the formula is similar to a top down analysis;
Trading is an accumulation of experiences. They are fun experiences, or angry experiences, or frustrated, or bored, or nervous, or exhilirating, addictive, challenging. And sounds like a lot of experience. But then the next level of courses begin. And the best conceot of those that I have had is similar to the food pyramids I have seen in school or in healthy-living literature.
So all of those experiences come together to form a methodology. And at the base of the trading version of the food pyramid seems to be psychology.
If I am to understand myself deeper, I have to be comfortable with my self in more environments. Stressful environments, like maybe making a post like this. And I don't know why exactly a trader who is good at what they do can have such an interest in also spreading the word. Other than, the fact it is so fucking intense at times that there is empathy. And not referring to myself in that sentence. No, I wish.
I am a year 6 trader. This is as good as it is for me. Maybe you are better, or faster, smarter. Not that I suffer, really, well occassionally...
but more often I struggle. It is a tough fucking world to maintain confidence in .
“Any healthy demand for oil will have to come from Asia or the Middle East,” said Michael
Poulsen, an analyst at Global Risk Management in Middelfart, Denmark."
What a great city in Denmark.
So where was I... Oh yes, oil hit that 94.50 area in a minor H&S top and dropped likw a brick. Now, is has passed the neckline, but nothing is guaranteed. And oil will many times deny it's fate by consolidating. Or, a break above the now RSP is a failed H&S and is a clear signal to go long. I kind of wish price had held overnight, because now we are at MOB point #2, which could bring chop.
Stops at 91.86 are already blown... major players would have had that point as another "the where is here" moment. Short positions have built overnight. ES has tried to retrace at least part of a day's worth of hopium insanity.
Yesterday's value references are off the chart, 91.30 was prior TPO bracket low area, shorts are way in the money and it is Friday. Going to watch. Bernanke speaks this afternoon. ES has pulled back but could attract buying. Vwap heavy sloping down but price has come over $2 under Y close.
" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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Just sitting here staring at the 240m chart, seeing the sell zone I set and the directional move after, knowing I took the swing in 2 contracts in my mind, pretend, one on each of two different days, avg probaly 94.60. And that I did not take that swing live. And it grates at me in the background. I am really not sure why it would, because I make the choice to be in or not. Or maybe, that is the reason it bothers me.
There needs to be an indicator that shows the relative strength of confidence in a trade, and flashes every time realtime action diverges with it.
I just made a new template in Sierra, called "REPLAY". What is shown in that workspace is only what is shown in the attached image. I hit "Go To Beginning of chart", scroll forward a day or two, and hit play at roughly 8am, at 10x to 50x speed.
I have intentionally removed all prices on the scale.
And without a lot of things I think I need, I am going to play this game this weekend. I am in a good space this and am going to let this run.
My friends who had a good week, congratulations, you worked hard for it.
My friends who didn't, shake it off, relax. Money isn't everything. You being happy is.
I have hit a point in studying market profile where my understanding of the whole is lagging due to insufficient understanding of a part; standard deviation.
When the discussion started into that topic heavily, rather than read on I am going off on a sidetrack.
I am getting older. 45 in July. Testostorone has taken a backseat to "been there done that". But still my mind is wired to ask the question, "what's next?" But at 44 the drive or energy needs to be dialed up some. Like caffeine. My version recently, like in the past few weeks, or a month, has been Yerba Mate. Nature's Red Bull.
Contemplating where I am chronologically has pushed me back into just having a fun time when I can. I joke a lot more, am maybe a bit rebellious or sarcastic, but just having fun. Not being as concerned about what other people think. The direction is a bit of strecthing boundaries and settling in.
Finishing the CBOT study guide today. Not that tough. Made my way through understanding standard deviation to the extent of what Wikipedia had to offer. Actually not complex at all.
But just finished a video by @Private Banker where he shows volume ladder/numbers bars in detail, and yes I see the difference between the two sides, but I also see that on the prior high pivot on the same screen. I am still making that topic maybe more complex for me than it needs to be.
I understand seeing resting orders where say the offer gets hit overwhelmingly more than the bid, and then I see where the bid gets hammered and the offer barely gets touched as price falls away, but on my charts I can also point out many other places where that occured, or looks similar anyway, that was not a "major" pivot.
Perhaps where price came back up into the prior day's value was the real area of interest, and the volume ladder was more for confirmation, like watching a 1m VSA chart more intensely at certain areas. I have set my coloring to show only a 51% or greater difference in Bid/Ask.
CL ended the RTH session on Friday with a Normal Variation day type, balancing on the RTH close right on the day's POC, leaving a sizable responsive buying excess in E period from approximately 90.25-90.55. That excess also coincides with the long term major trendline/bullish channel on the daily. That has me thinking we may see more buying in that area at the start of the week.
However, the move down started with the confirmation of a higher timeframe right shoulder pivot, which could need to test the major low at around 89.80. And even then Crude may have a little farther to go, as the 240m timeframe wave formation suggests that this move could be wave c of C, with minimum completion targets of 88.93 and 88.48 respectively.
This is an uncomfortable post. Trying to focus on what I am doing "right" per Steenbarger's list, as it relates to my P&L, is not something I am currently wanting to put emphasis on. And what I am doing "right" that I do want to focus on is something I am not succesful yet at integrating into my regular trading behavior.
But, trying to satisy both sides, my higher timeframe analysis has been very good this year. I have really only had two times where I felt very strong, and both have resulted in good accuracy and good distance. While it does help me stay on the right side, it remains a sore topic for me as I push myself away from habits I have formed from the perception of necessity, and towards images I have in my mind derived from long term experience.
In other words, my analysis has for quite some time been better than I have trusted by my ultimate actions, because of time. Time.
I recently held a trade through a lot of rotational movement, thinking I was working on something inside. But after I found it was easier to hold through the heat than when I was risking profit. My perception of time actually changes depending on whether I am up or down in a trade.
So if I were to chose a topic that really deserves some attention, it is TIME.
88.50 is an area I am expecting to buy. I stayed off the sell at 94.50, and maybe this is a soft version of revenge trading. But really the majority of swings I have missed after having an unusually high amount of confluence all cumulate into a soft revenge. It may show itself in hours of study, or hundreds of pages of reading, not the typical "revenge" that does collateral damage.
I started as a swing trader. Had to change that mindset to learn to scalp. Ironic.
Or, would buy a new DB at the 786. Both are green zones on my charts.
Breaking that low on stop volume means nothing yet. and once it does, here comes the dominant zone. Two zones this close... I prefer 88.50 based on knowledge, prefer 89.50 based on the backward tendency to immediate gratification...
What I have seen traders do, is fail to acknowledge that the buy at 89.50 is worse than 88.50, regardless of which holds, and a miss at 89.50 could be made up and then some with the patience to buy at a break above 94.90. That hopefully makes sense to some, and not just me.
The thing about buying the bottom, is it is countermomentum. Les chance of it being the turm greater reward if it does become it. A break above 94.?? would be with the surge, the kind that kills swiftly when on the wrong side of.
)
That is a quote someone should make. 
. 