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Like a turtle to his balcony...


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Like a turtle to his balcony...

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 GaryD 
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Here comes the test



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 GaryD 
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pulling stop in

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 GaryD 
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closed, minus 4. Going to see what ES does

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  #904 (permalink)
 GaryD 
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Expanding on that repair theory, 94.80 is the top of the zone. But that puts the short trying to fade K period, which I am done doing. But tomorrow, if the setup looks right. Shorts being removed today has weakened the market underneath. ES has little chance of not breaking the high now.

CL sellers are absorbing the move very nicely up here... For Long Term Sellers, this is the place. That does not mean they will win, but definitely on their radar. Heavy selling will most likely wait for ES to do whatever up here.





Merging the profile back to the repair zone puts the POC at today's low.

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  #905 (permalink)
 josh 
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Can you imagine what equities would be doing if there were some actual positive news that suddenly appeared? From the very bad NFP report at the open on Friday, up 32 handles, on *zero* news. Even MarketWatch, the king of BS headlines, can't think up a good one for this one. Personally, I would say "Markets up in anticipation of FOMC minutes tomorrow" if I were writing a BS headline, but that's just me

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josh View Post
Can you imagine what equities would be doing if there were some actual positive news that suddenly appeared? From the very bad NFP report at the open on Friday, up 32 handles, on *zero* news. Even MarketWatch, the king of BS headlines, can't think up a good one for this one. Personally, I would say "Markets up in anticipation of FOMC minutes tomorrow" if I were writing a BS headline, but that's just me


Man, you just added the comic relief I needed after staring at this thing since yesterday!

I started to see that open zone in CL that reappeared 4x recently, and had thought before that 94.50 was the line for staying short, so today has been a long story unwinding for me. If if were not 2pm I would be short as hell right now.


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 GaryD 
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Wouldn't an ES double top be a nice addition?

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 GaryD 
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josh View Post
Can you imagine what equities would be doing if there were some actual positive news that suddenly appeared?

That is why I drew the line at ES 1565 and scared myself out of my short. $5 says ES still has to take the high out.

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 GaryD 
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GaryD View Post
That is why I drew the line at ES 1565 and scared myself out of my short. $5 says ES still has to take the high out.

If anyone took that, please mail my $5 to "Pete's Point", Orlando, Florida.

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 GaryD 
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Manana.


MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET

Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks
8:30 AM ET

EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET


Richard Fisher Speaks
1:00 PM ET

10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET

FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET


Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET

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 GaryD 
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ES offered a nice day to go long. Never could take out A

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 GaryD 
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Pimped my avatar some. It was between that and a meditating frog.

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 GaryD 
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Long trades are not that fun. That is part of the problem. Not just in that they are not exciting, or entertainig, but they actually bring discomfort. We do not like uncertainty.

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 GaryD 
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This is a MP imprint I don't get yet. It has a single print section that suggest it will see repair. But it also ran headfirst into a major resistance zone and did it with a trend-type day. I have had several occassions of my trade understanding fighting with MP, and this is one of them. I would have shorted CL hard if I saw the same thing and ES would turn, but it wouldn't... Some days I have almost despised ES when it would not let CL do it's thing. Not today. Today I just accepted that ES was going to blow the high and I was a day early, if right at all. Not only is there the right setup in the right area, but there is the right time of day to do it in.

The day type says there should be buyers ready to react. The higher view says this is a make or break area. My hunch, wish maybe, is down. But it will do what it does. IF it moves down, the target is 88.50. The 94.50 area, spreading itself across at least a 50 tick swath, could stay a topic for awhile. It is one of those places. The last time I felt this strong was the last major bottom in crude. The shitty part is, that does not mean it will happen. That part you never know, but the where, is here.

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GaryD View Post
This is a MP imprint I don't get yet. It has a single print section that suggest it will see repair.

I guess most all areas of low activity (single prints included) eventually "fill in" or "repair," but who knows when that will be? Sometimes we will have a low activity price range that is traded through multiple times, continuing to reject, but I don't know if there is an implication that it needs to be "repaired." Actually this is something I've been curious about recently. Maybe @Private Banker can give his $0.02 on this topic, I would love to hear it.

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 Private Banker 
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GaryD View Post


This is a MP imprint I don't get yet. It has a single print section that suggest it will see repair. But it also ran headfirst into a major resistance zone and did it with a trend-type day. I have had several occassions of my trade understanding fighting with MP, and this is one of them. I would have shorted CL hard if I saw the same thing and ES would turn, but it wouldn't... Some days I have almost despised ES when it would not let CL do it's thing. Not today. Today I just accepted that ES was going to blow the high and I was a day early, if right at all. Not only is there the right setup in the right area, but there is the right time of day to do it in.

The day type say there should be buyers ready to react. The higher view says this is a make or break area. My hunch, wish maybe, is down. But it will do what it does. IF it moves down, the target is 88.50. The 94.50 area, spreading itself across at least a 50 tick swath, could stay a topic for awhile. It is one of those places. The last time I felt this strong was the last major bottom in crude. They shitty part is, that does not mean it will happen. That part you never know, but the where, is here.

The single prints can be filled in but when a market moves fast through an area like that, it can provide a similar fast move in the other direction. As Josh mentioned, not all areas will be repaired. What I like to do when there are two clear distributions in a profile is split out the afternoon distribution and almost treat it as another session. Reason being, there's really nothing in between. Obviously balance equals acceptance and single prints are rejection areas which is why its helpful to split the profile out in that way to provide more reference for the next session. Hopefully that makes sense.

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I started to see that open zone in CL that reappeared 4x recently, and had thought before that 94.50 was the line for staying short, so today has been a long story unwinding for me. If if were not 2pm I would be short as hell right now.




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 GaryD 
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Private Banker View Post
The single prints can be filled in but when a market moves fast through an area like that, it can provide a similar fast move in the other direction. As Josh mentioned, not all areas will be repaired. What I like to do when there are two clear distributions in a profile is split out the afternoon distribution and almost treat it as another session. Reason being, there's really nothing in between. Obviously balance equals acceptance and single prints are rejection areas which is why its helpful to split the profile out in that way to provide more reference for the next session. Hopefully that makes sense.


Yes, that does make perfect sense to me. I don't know if you saw that I did the opposite at the recent bracket, merging the profiles. What are your thoughts on that?

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 GaryD 
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Obviously balance equals acceptance and single prints are rejection areas which is why its helpful to split the profile out in that way to provide more reference for the next session. Hopefully that makes sense.

In that case what do you do with F period? My thought on this situation is that since the day type is "trend", go with that sentiment on the singe prints of F. Assuming competition drove it higher at that speed. The only caveat to that being that there is competition in short covering. But, I guess they are competing with other buyers regardless?


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 GaryD 
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shorted the Y close area, one off. I am going to lean on the H&S theory until proven wrong. Intermediate trenline held at the open, which is against me, but there are two big event today and I am expecting somewhat contained movement ahaead of that. Opening in the singles of the DD day and returning to the approx PM split value area...

I also got a bar that I am starting to understand on VL.

And, a part of me is a little disappointed that I could not short yesterday, the plague of wanting to relive a trade. (I can tell also because of the 2 entries, the first was impatient.) But I am aware of that and still am ok. The rejection was 1 tick above the LSP, and price came off 100 ticks overnight, in my mind rejecting that afternoon value.

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 GaryD 
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And another thing I really like about Sierra is that the chart window shows live net PL, not just trade PL. It ties in with the "banked risk" thought.

And that stops and targets are always independently movable, and that they have lines that tie them together. Those lines are helping me visualize core position versus scalps.


Cool to me that I scalped right around my "core"


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 GaryD 
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And the little yellow window at the top for trading without having the trade box open.

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 GaryD 
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@josh, you be the frog, and I'll be the pirate.





Now somebody has to be the thimble...

Or "symbol" which was tried once before. Damn lisp.

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 GaryD 
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Risk tightened

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 GaryD 
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Off +30 on #2. Will wait for EIA. The high inventory levels are presumed discounted, not planning to look at the number, but have seen anything happen. I hope to some day work my way to holding through a number, but not today.

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 Private Banker 
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Gary,

This is how I split the profile out from yesterday with VWAP confluent trade location.




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Gary,

This is how I split the profile out from yesterday with VWAP confluent trade location.






So you put F to the other side. When the day is over could you give your rationale? Wait, I think I just got it myself. Give me a chance to think on it before you answer. Price did not come down to it and find buyers, it came up through it as in the K period.

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Off +30 on #2. Will wait for EIA. The high inventory levels are presumed discounted, not planning to look at the number, but have seen anything happen. I hope to some day work my way to holding through a number, but not today.

Another good day to not hold... Maybe I won't ever work my way there. lol!


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 GaryD 
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stopped out

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 Private Banker 
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GaryD View Post
So you put F to the other side. When the day is over could you give your rationale? Wait, I think I just got it myself. Give me a chance to think on it before you answer. Price did not come down to it and find buyers, it came up through it as in the K period.

F period was the imbalanced TPO bracket and the remaining were balanced.

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 GaryD 
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Scalped back.


ES is ballistic,




and up until then CL had an incomplete high, plus A period still stands as a possible trend day.




Still maintaining my view on the higher LSP, my scalp target was the break above the double prints.

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 GaryD 
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Price has reached IB 2, the max range if this will reverse and become and neutral day.


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 GaryD 
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Keeping a big picture perspective. That overlapping action is corrective behavior. That is a 240m chart, those a big corrective waves on a smaller timeframe, with the "C" leg hitting the even higher time LSP +1 tick.

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 GaryD 
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Here. Notice the A and C similarity. "Measured move" as some refer to it.


And the bigger picture


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 GaryD 
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Not that the 240m has anything to do with today's range, but expecting continuation higher is not warranted until that breaks. 94.50 stood out like a sore thumb since Sunday night.

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If I was a swing trader, this is where I would be. I am going to pretend I still am and see how that works.

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 GaryD 
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It's funny how the mind naturally wants to short something like ES, with wide open sky above.

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FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET


"The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its latest Federal Open Markets Committee Meeting earlier than planned Wednesday, a day after the transcripts were inadvertently sent out to a select few. They were released at 9 a.m. ET Wednesday instead of their anticipated release at 2 p.m. ET.

According to the Fed, about 100 congressional staffers and trade lobbyists received the minutes sometime after 2 p.m. ET on Tuesday.

The Fed has contacted the Securities and Exchange and Commodity Futures Trading commissions and its inspector general to see if there was any trading tied to the early release of information. "



I have been doing other things waiting for FOMC to pass.... now I am wondering if they really were out Monday afternoon.

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 GaryD 
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Faced with similar trade issue as yesterday. K period...


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 GaryD 
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Repair top hit

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 GaryD 
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added to my hypothetical short swing from yesterday.



Live closed, pretend going for 88.50

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@josh, you be the frog, and I'll be the pirate.





Now somebody has to be the thimble...

Or "symbol" which was tried once before. Damn lisp.

Oh, come on @josh. Be the frog, Feel the frog.

Or, I'll be the frog ,and you can be the pirate? LOL!

I know, I am a nut.

If I had to decide, I'll be the nut, you be the pirate, and @greenr will be the frog. But who will be the thimble? Hopefully a thort theller.

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 josh 
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Oh, come on @josh. Be the frog, Feel the frog.

Or, I'll be the frog ,and you can be the pirate? LOL!

I know, I am a nut.

Being the pirate sounds more appealing, but I'm not sure I want to be either! What are my responsibilities as frog or pirate in this little scenario??

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Being the pirate sounds more appealing, but I'm not sure I want to be either! What are my responsibilities as frog or pirate in this little scenario??

I am SOOOOOOO glad you asked!

I was just going with the criticism of my new avatar. Played with it again today. Actually, I think I want to stay the pirate. Sail the high seas, life of adventure, it's all about the booty...

But, the frog is available for a small fee.

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 GaryD 
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Being the pirate sounds more appealing, but I'm not sure I want to be either! What are my responsibilities as frog or pirate in this little scenario??

The frog, by the way, is a little guy who sits in my wife's office. I shot it on a black background and then dropped the background out to pure black. It is something she loves. She wants me to some day do a photo of her and the frog in the same pose. Goes with her yoga thing, which is I guess not just a thing after however many years.

How are you doing this week? Did you ride that ES beast? If it was like that all the time I would consider leaving CL. (shhhh, I hope it did not hear me. It is one moody little b... eautiful thing. Well hello, CL )

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 GaryD 
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I have been knocked out of two great shorts two days in a row.

I "know" that is the place, and it is almost like someone else knows, who has about 1,000,000 times more influence on the market, and only takes it there in K period.

I called it on Sunday, and that should be respected as if I called "shotgun". Don't those other traders follow the rules?

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 GaryD 
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Price broke the LSP 94.47 yesterday, made it all the way to 94.48...

It broke again today, which CL is known for finding every possible stop out there, but never could get outside the redish (black charts are cooler, I hate pink) resistance area. And still the overlapping action continues. I am remaining downside biased as of today's close.

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 GaryD 
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Newest addition to the analysis toolbox. Yesterday's Value template, with much appreciation to @Private Banker.

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 greenr 
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GaryD View Post
I have been knocked out of two great shorts two days in a row.

I "know" that is the place, and it is almost like someone else knows, who has about 1,000,000 times more influence on the market, and only takes it there in K period.

I called it on Sunday, and that should be respected as if I called "shotgun". Don't those other traders follow the rules?

The over all directional conviction the last 4 days has been up

We had a nice healthy up auction yesterday

The s&p has been smashing its all time highs

Trade with the order flow?


I can talk making the few stupid mistakes I made last week trying to buy and fade the lows into that sell off


But just saying

" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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 GaryD 
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The over all directional conviction the last 4 days has been up

We had a nice healthy up auction yesterday

The s&p has been smashing its all time highs

Trade with the order flow?


I can talk making the few stupid mistakes I made last week trying to buy and fade the lows into that sell off


But just saying

We do sometimes make "stupid" mistakes, but not often. Most mistakes are instinctual mistakes, without which we would not be alive. My guess is that is where you were. But, the great thing about trading is that is old news.

I know, I see ES, and did think CL had set a major bottom not that long ago, but my take is still waiting for CL to prove it can get out.

I traded long and short today, and probably will tomorrow. But I am not taking my sights off that zone until it can escape.

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 GaryD 
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I can talk making the few stupid mistakes I made last week trying to buy and fade the lows into that sell off

Me too Ryan. So what? When it becomes too serious it gets dangerous.

I watched one of Ben's videos today, and can't help but notice his chilled attitude. And somewhat get it.

As men we think we need to step up and make something happen. I have had to in many roles throughout my life. But, if you want to trade, it is not exactly a dominant role. We are the market's bitch... as it may feel as we learn to move that direction.

And then we become priveleged to ride it. And the line of dominant/submissive goes away.

Relax, you will lose. And then you will win. You will get frustrated. And then you will feel like you are getting somewhere. But you will make it.

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 GaryD 
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I took the red zone from the 240m and drew it on the TPO chart. Look at the rejection. Not necessarily from the RTH session, but in ETH. Go back over the past 2 days.

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 GaryD 
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That symmetrical triangle continues to play out. On a longer range I would anticipate short side dominance below 94.50 (actually short side entry zone there as well), but possible temporary support above 91.50.

88.50 for minimum long range correction completion, further if this is a new trend, with temporary support around the merged TPO excess around 89.90.

I am wrong often, and that is OK. But for now...

I did not think CL would fall from where it was, I thought 94.50. So now it has been tested 2x, and falling. I have to go with that, or risk the possibility of never trusting myself.

If it breaks out, fine, erase the lines and start over...


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 GaryD 
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94.38


And that red (pink) zone was drawn well in advance.

That would look so much cooler if I had the rejection of the LSP shown.

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 GaryD 
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The path to learning to trade, is;

1) Defining structure

2) Recognizing structure

3) Obeying structure.

The definition of structure is a variable.

Because (dramatic music "DUH DUH DUHHHHH..." you can learn the correct mindset and still follow the wrong things.

The worst reality, possibly, is that you have to choose a path, dedicate yourself to it, and become the absolute authority on that path. All on faith.



AND...


If you're wrong, try again.

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 GaryD 
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Of course, there is the whole issue of,

"why trust a pirate?"

You would prefer to trust someone who looked professional, dressed professional, spoke professionally, acted professionally. Many people would not believe how much money is spent on that. What is advertising anyway?

But I have seen the images people become, and not portray but truly live as, and then seen that I do not trust apperances. I trust truth, and transparency, and real world face in the dirt experience.

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 Silver Dragon 
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Here is my hourly view of CL; short term is up in a nice channel. Weekly chart is interesting.. Assuming it continues to follow the same pattern, it may take another week or two to get back to the top of the triangle which would be around 97ish.

So what happens when it breaks out of the weekly triangle? will it break up/down or continue to move sideways. I seem to remember something about breakouts start occurring around 75% length of the triangle. I think we are there..

Robert




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 GaryD 
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CL is weak. Has a hard time going against ES which is not letting it fall, and has so many layers of anticipated support to get through. But give ES a chance and look out.

Rejecting current value, rejected yesterday's IB low...


I'd like to see it tip over A period. If I am going to try to guess a day type, it would not be trend as there is too much momentum without a catalyst.

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 GaryD 
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Of course, not expecting a trend day has nothing to do with it's possibility.

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 GaryD 
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Today I will blame the ES for my impatience.

My dog does something similar when I want to go somewhere she doesn't. She locks herself into a stance and will not budge. She is currently scared of the neighbor and there is a tree line she will not cross. Any direction but that one she is happy. So sometimes I find us going sideways along that line seeing if I can get her comfortable. And then usually I just pick her up.


MY DOG





ME


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 GaryD 
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Now, similarly I am strong enough to make her go, like by picking her up. (would not drag her as ES might CL). But the first chance she gets to head in the other direction, if I am ready to go, we could run all the way home.

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 GaryD 
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The price action divergence between the two is very obvoius today. But selling does not make sense to me yet, and buying seems like something I would beat myself up for afterwards for having known better.

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 GaryD 
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 GaryD 
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GaryD View Post
I would have shorted CL hard if I saw the same thing and ES would turn, but it wouldn't... Some days I have almost despised ES when it would not let CL do it's thing. Not today. Today I just accepted that ES was going to blow the high and I was a day early, if right at all. Not only is there the right setup in the right area, but there is the right time of day to do it in.

The day type says there should be buyers ready to react. The higher view says this is a make or break area. My hunch, wish maybe, is down. But it will do what it does. IF it moves down, the target is 88.50. The 94.50 area, spreading itself across at least a 50 tick swath, could stay a topic for awhile. It is one of those places. The last time I felt this strong was the last major bottom in crude. The shitty part is, that does not mean it will happen. That part you never know, but the where, is here.

I think that is why I don't trade ES.

Flat all day... SOAB

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 GaryD 
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ME







MY DOG








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 GaryD 
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Split profile at imbalance. 2 scalps long.

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 GaryD 
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There should be some short covering as ES approaches high. Trying to just be patient, see what happens. Price keeps fighting the edge of current value, but still not liking the price divergence.

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 GaryD 
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short 60 and 69


1 off 52

Closed 24






I originally targeted to incomplete low on the TPO chart at 93.15, but still getting my head around that and wimped out today.

I allowed ES to talk me out of a trade this morning, something I have done many times before, but I don;t know what to do about it. Ignoring the pull is not wise either, and ES barely had to give up anything to send CL racing lower. Tough trade, even with the level of conviction I had this week. The market will wear me out sometimes.

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 GaryD 
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Have some work to get done. Spent all day stalking a good trade and ignored the time.





This is the chart I used for my entry area today. Brand spanking new as of late last night, copying @Private Banker. It shows the value area of the prior day on today's action.

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 GaryD 
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Sierra's performance report, called Trade Statistics, is very different from NT's. It looks like I will have to completely redesign my spreadsheet I was using for making a moving average. I wanted something very easy that used as few steps as possible to load the data, and built what I had been using to work with NT, but the data does not line up.

Sierra offers some points that I had not seen before, but as a trade off does not give the graphs. Not that they are required though. I very much like the "Fill to Fill" vs "Flat to Flat" option, the Average Quantity, Avg PF, Largest Winner/Loser as % of Profit/Loss. Some other things I am not sure if I need or not. I am hoping to make a new ongoing summary this weekend.

This version is "Flat to Flat". Actual total contracts traded was 36.

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Like a turtle to his balcony...-tradestatistics.pdf  
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 GaryD 
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And this is the same report as "Fill to Fill"

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Like a turtle to his balcony...-fill-fill.pdf  
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 GaryD 
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Sierra's daily format

What was Tuesday?

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Like a turtle to his balcony...-day-week.pdf  
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 GaryD 
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GaryD View Post
If oil comes up to the 94.50 area, that is a possible LSP in a possible larger C leg down and would provide a nice entry (without confirmation) for shorts. If it breaks, that could be saying something too.


GaryD View Post

Looking at the ES move, and CL's reluctance to follow, I am watching for a delayed reaction this morning that may "repair" that area where price moved through so fast, which would bring price into that LSP area.


GaryD View Post

Crude has a local DT at around 93.85. That may also become a point for stop building.


GaryD View Post
I would imagine there are a lot of eyes on ES this morning to see how it opens, and that brings the possibility that CL may wait to see.


GaryD View Post
Goldman speaks.


GaryD View Post
My TUT email of the day;

"And the day will come when all of the gold in the world will not appeal to you as much, Gary, as just one more day of being who and where you already are, with what you already have.

If it hasn't already.

Thank you,
The Universe"


GaryD View Post
Y-Vwap / Y POC / Intermediate trendline in 93 area



GaryD View Post
Now, a real long distance trade, without confirmation, would be 94.50 area down to 88.50.

Or imagine this. Price returns to balance today (neutral at 1xIB), then tomorrow ahead of EIA opens in today's excess area...


GaryD View Post
short 94.40 with HVS bars confirmation






Now what I want is ES range extension to fail at or below 1565




TUESDAY - Oil looked tired but ES was out of control. That is most likely why I was so late to go short today also. More reasons to dislike ES! lol!

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 GaryD 
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Really it had nothing to do with ES and everything to do with psychology.


What an embarrassing chart to post.

Not that it is not normal, in fact it is very "normal", and that is possibly the biggest flaw. I traded scared, I thought about money.

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 GaryD 
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I lost the moment just by having to wake up the computer, connect to the wireless, open IE, go the the Journal link, and hit "Post Reply".

What an impatient society we are becoming.

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 GaryD 
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Pirate Trading Workshop is open for business!

Lmmfaofmf

That would be fun.

Lesson One; "Relax."
Lesson Two...

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 GaryD 
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"Never make a post without thinking about it. " That is a quote someone should make.

Not that it is true.



For those who agree that the formula is similar to a top down analysis;

Trading is an accumulation of experiences. They are fun experiences, or angry experiences, or frustrated, or bored, or nervous, or exhilirating, addictive, challenging. And sounds like a lot of experience. But then the next level of courses begin. And the best conceot of those that I have had is similar to the food pyramids I have seen in school or in healthy-living literature.






So all of those experiences come together to form a methodology. And at the base of the trading version of the food pyramid seems to be psychology.


If I am to understand myself deeper, I have to be comfortable with my self in more environments. Stressful environments, like maybe making a post like this. And I don't know why exactly a trader who is good at what they do can have such an interest in also spreading the word. Other than, the fact it is so fucking intense at times that there is empathy. And not referring to myself in that sentence. No, I wish.

I am a year 6 trader. This is as good as it is for me. Maybe you are better, or faster, smarter. Not that I suffer, really, well occassionally...

but more often I struggle. It is a tough fucking world to maintain confidence in .

I am not complaining, just venting.

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 GaryD 
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DECISIONS

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 GaryD 
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 GaryD 
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“Any healthy demand for oil will have to come from Asia or the Middle East,” said Michael
Poulsen, an analyst at Global Risk Management in Middelfart, Denmark."


What a great city in Denmark.


So where was I... Oh yes, oil hit that 94.50 area in a minor H&S top and dropped likw a brick. Now, is has passed the neckline, but nothing is guaranteed. And oil will many times deny it's fate by consolidating. Or, a break above the now RSP is a failed H&S and is a clear signal to go long. I kind of wish price had held overnight, because now we are at MOB point #2, which could bring chop.

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 GaryD 
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Stops at 91.86 are already blown... major players would have had that point as another "the where is here" moment. Short positions have built overnight. ES has tried to retrace at least part of a day's worth of hopium insanity.

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 GaryD 
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Target #2 at 91.50 hit.



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 GaryD 
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Yesterday's value references are off the chart, 91.30 was prior TPO bracket low area, shorts are way in the money and it is Friday. Going to watch. Bernanke speaks this afternoon. ES has pulled back but could attract buying. Vwap heavy sloping down but price has come over $2 under Y close.

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 greenr 
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IM long from .25

" I will follow my rules, I will take my stops, I will be disciplined and i will work with the market....NOT AGAINST IT! Professional mind control is the key"
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 GaryD 
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IM long from .22

I thought about it, but have some bad memories of trying to stop crude oil from falling... lol! I remember times of doing that all day.

It gave a HVS bar, but I am just gunshy.

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 GaryD 
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short 76

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 GaryD 
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closed - trading one contract, only way I can bank risk. Still want to watch.

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 GaryD 
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watch this test closely

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 GaryD 
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Just sitting here staring at the 240m chart, seeing the sell zone I set and the directional move after, knowing I took the swing in 2 contracts in my mind, pretend, one on each of two different days, avg probaly 94.60. And that I did not take that swing live. And it grates at me in the background. I am really not sure why it would, because I make the choice to be in or not. Or maybe, that is the reason it bothers me.

There needs to be an indicator that shows the relative strength of confidence in a trade, and flashes every time realtime action diverges with it.

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 GaryD 
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I just made a new template in Sierra, called "REPLAY". What is shown in that workspace is only what is shown in the attached image. I hit "Go To Beginning of chart", scroll forward a day or two, and hit play at roughly 8am, at 10x to 50x speed.

I have intentionally removed all prices on the scale.

And without a lot of things I think I need, I am going to play this game this weekend. I am in a good space this and am going to let this run.

My friends who had a good week, congratulations, you worked hard for it.

My friends who didn't, shake it off, relax. Money isn't everything. You being happy is.

And all of you, live this weekend!!!!

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 GaryD 
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I have hit a point in studying market profile where my understanding of the whole is lagging due to insufficient understanding of a part; standard deviation.

When the discussion started into that topic heavily, rather than read on I am going off on a sidetrack.

Standard deviation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

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 GaryD 
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That did not take long. I built this image in Excel of standard deviation in a nutshell.





So the concept of 3-1-3, 1-2-3 and 3-2-1 distribution now seems a lot simpler from how I read it the first time through, thanks to Wikipedia.

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 GaryD 
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I am getting older. 45 in July. Testostorone has taken a backseat to "been there done that". But still my mind is wired to ask the question, "what's next?" But at 44 the drive or energy needs to be dialed up some. Like caffeine. My version recently, like in the past few weeks, or a month, has been Yerba Mate. Nature's Red Bull.

Contemplating where I am chronologically has pushed me back into just having a fun time when I can. I joke a lot more, am maybe a bit rebellious or sarcastic, but just having fun. Not being as concerned about what other people think. The direction is a bit of strecthing boundaries and settling in.

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 GaryD 
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Finishing the CBOT study guide today. Not that tough. Made my way through understanding standard deviation to the extent of what Wikipedia had to offer. Actually not complex at all.

But just finished a video by @Private Banker where he shows volume ladder/numbers bars in detail, and yes I see the difference between the two sides, but I also see that on the prior high pivot on the same screen. I am still making that topic maybe more complex for me than it needs to be.

I understand seeing resting orders where say the offer gets hit overwhelmingly more than the bid, and then I see where the bid gets hammered and the offer barely gets touched as price falls away, but on my charts I can also point out many other places where that occured, or looks similar anyway, that was not a "major" pivot.

Perhaps where price came back up into the prior day's value was the real area of interest, and the volume ladder was more for confirmation, like watching a 1m VSA chart more intensely at certain areas. I have set my coloring to show only a 51% or greater difference in Bid/Ask.


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 GaryD 
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Trading Journals That Work

1. Make sure the journal includes observations about you and your trading and about the markets themselves.

2. Make sure the journal includes observations about your best trades.

3. Make sure the journal truly prepares you for the coming trading day.

4. Make sure the journal outlines specific steps for improvement.

5. Make sure the journal includes performance metrics.

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Like a turtle to his balcony...-trading-journals-work-brett-steenbarger.pdf  
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 GaryD 
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CL ended the RTH session on Friday with a Normal Variation day type, balancing on the RTH close right on the day's POC, leaving a sizable responsive buying excess in E period from approximately 90.25-90.55. That excess also coincides with the long term major trendline/bullish channel on the daily. That has me thinking we may see more buying in that area at the start of the week.

However, the move down started with the confirmation of a higher timeframe right shoulder pivot, which could need to test the major low at around 89.80. And even then Crude may have a little farther to go, as the 240m timeframe wave formation suggests that this move could be wave c of C, with minimum completion targets of 88.93 and 88.48 respectively.





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 GaryD 
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This is an uncomfortable post. Trying to focus on what I am doing "right" per Steenbarger's list, as it relates to my P&L, is not something I am currently wanting to put emphasis on. And what I am doing "right" that I do want to focus on is something I am not succesful yet at integrating into my regular trading behavior.

But, trying to satisy both sides, my higher timeframe analysis has been very good this year. I have really only had two times where I felt very strong, and both have resulted in good accuracy and good distance. While it does help me stay on the right side, it remains a sore topic for me as I push myself away from habits I have formed from the perception of necessity, and towards images I have in my mind derived from long term experience.

In other words, my analysis has for quite some time been better than I have trusted by my ultimate actions, because of time. Time.

I recently held a trade through a lot of rotational movement, thinking I was working on something inside. But after I found it was easier to hold through the heat than when I was risking profit. My perception of time actually changes depending on whether I am up or down in a trade.

So if I were to chose a topic that really deserves some attention, it is TIME.

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 GaryD 
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And I am already looking at something besides the pirate thing... that was just a push. Maybe something to do with time.

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 GaryD 
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Approaching prior major low

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 GaryD 
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88.50 is an area I am expecting to buy. I stayed off the sell at 94.50, and maybe this is a soft version of revenge trading. But really the majority of swings I have missed after having an unusually high amount of confluence all cumulate into a soft revenge. It may show itself in hours of study, or hundreds of pages of reading, not the typical "revenge" that does collateral damage.

I started as a swing trader. Had to change that mindset to learn to scalp. Ironic.

Or, would buy a new DB at the 786. Both are green zones on my charts.




Breaking that low on stop volume means nothing yet. and once it does, here comes the dominant zone. Two zones this close... I prefer 88.50 based on knowledge, prefer 89.50 based on the backward tendency to immediate gratification...


What I have seen traders do, is fail to acknowledge that the buy at 89.50 is worse than 88.50, regardless of which holds, and a miss at 89.50 could be made up and then some with the patience to buy at a break above 94.90. That hopefully makes sense to some, and not just me.


The thing about buying the bottom, is it is countermomentum. Les chance of it being the turm greater reward if it does become it. A break above 94.?? would be with the surge, the kind that kills swiftly when on the wrong side of.

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