Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling - futures io
futures io futures trading



Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one Profiler with 414 posts (374 thanks)
    2. looks_two josh with 64 posts (77 thanks)
    3. looks_3 COTtrader with 26 posts (15 thanks)
    4. looks_4 garyboy275 with 25 posts (15 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one Private Banker with 4.5 thanks per post
    2. looks_two josh with 1.2 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 trendisyourfriend with 1.2 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 Profiler with 0.9 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 67,522 views
    2. thumb_up 603 thanks given
    3. group 52 followers
    1. forum 625 posts
    2. attach_file 557 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 125,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

 
Search this Thread
 

Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling

(login for full post details)
  #1 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

Hello all-
Im starting this thread in hopes of it becoming a collaborative effort to figure out how to make money trading the ES. A little background first: I was a very successful fesx scalper in the past. For 9 years i literally made money virtually every single day including only 1 losing day in 2005. At my peak in 2007 i was trading 6000 contracts a day working only 4 hours a day. I was living the life. I had edge and took it whenever i saw it. Until last year when some new algos took my edge away. Over 3 months my steady profits dwindled to nothing and after losing 8g's the first week of april i just walked away. I stand before you (figuratively speaking) a humbled man/ trader.

3 months ago i started trading spoos. I trade 1 lots, i am down $1300 so far including commish. I use volume profiling/ auction market theory. I have no edge. I understand the theory but as said in daltons books it depends on context. I am contextually blind the majority of each and every day. I am unable to prioritize the most important contextual factors at any given time. The worst part is that i dont know what i dont know. Ive been in various chat rooms and seen what other guys are looking at. I have the exact same charts as them. We are looking at the exact same things and they are crushing it while i am clueless. They are not smarter or better than me. They know how to filter the noise from the signal. They see subtle clues and understand the importance. I WAS the same way.

I know many of you are exactly like me. Lets help each other out and speed up the transition to profits. I will be posting here on a daily basis my nightly homework, my trades that i make and pnl. I will be posting a daily recap of what the market did as it relates to context. If you see me do a trade that was just obviously stupid, reply and tell me why! Im going to do whatever it takes to make money again so if you see me lacking in some way, tell me! This is trading, brutal honesty is required. If i wanted a friend i would get a dog (fyi i have one). Lets do this!

Started this thread Reply With Quote

Can you help answer these questions
from other members on futures io?
Help Needed: TOS Options Chain IV & IMPL MOVE Calcul …
ThinkOrSwim
Which kind of Blockvolume is visible? - order processing
Emini and Emicro Index
Full platform with Python extension?
Platforms and Indicators
OFA (Order Flow Analytics) Licence
NinjaTrader
If ES tracks SPX, why do support/resistance, Level 2, vo …
Emini and Emicro Index
 
Best Threads (Most Thanked)
in the last 7 days on futures io
Selling Options on Futures?
107 thanks
Battlestations: Show us your trading desks!
84 thanks
Rank your Futures vs Stocks trading priority
54 thanks
Support from wife/kids/loved ones in your trading
31 thanks
Whats this confusion with margins?
23 thanks
 
(login for full post details)
  #3 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Trading: Emini Futures
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 49,780 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,306 given, 97,567 received


Congrats on your journal. I also want to make sure you are aware:

Main thread on Volume Profile:


Main thread on SP500 (a bit slow lately due to holidays, but will pick up):


Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #4 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,054 given, 14,504 received

Profiler, thanks for starting the thread. You seem to have a great attitude. Welcome to futures.io (formerly BMT), it's a great community here.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #5 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

1-22 ON Pre-market

Economic Data: home sales

ON Profile: Well my charts are a bit messed up due to the holiday but we have had a pretty active session in ON/holiday period. Fridays highs were taken out by 3.25 pts and stopped right at the LVN from 10-31-07 I had designated on my charts. Spoos sold off from that area and re-entered fridays range and established vpoc at 1476.75. Normally I will be posting a photo of what the profile looks like in the ON session but today I am unable. Given proximity to ON low, it seems likely market will not take out ONHI and instead will explore lower.

Closing Swing: 1481-1477.75

Levels Above: 1483.25 CLVN/1484.25 LVN from 10-30-07, 1486.75 CHVN*/nvpoc, 1487.75 LVN from 10-17-07, 1491.25 LVN from 10-17-07

Levels Below: 1473.75, 1470.25 dbl bottom/1469 BA hi/1468.75 CLVN, 1467 nvpoc/1466.5 mc vpoc, 1460.25 CLVN*

Hypo#1- Spoos open OAIR, rotate higher and gets rejected near 1479.75 CHVN then moves lower targeting ONLO then 1473.75 nvpoc and possibly 1470.25 dbl bottom.

Hypo#2- Spoos open OAIR, rotate lower to nvpoc 1473.75 where buyers step in and auction it higher through the day but do not take out ONHI.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #6 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

1. Bot 1477.5 LVN on 4 pt move down. Breadth -133, tick -400 and volume subpar. Quality of rotation into this was poor with two 1.25 pt re-traces. Additionally, OSLO at 1479.25 held on second which made me consider taking a short there into LVN. Stopped after 18 min and .5 MF. Breadth decreased to -153 on exit. Context...

2. Sold 1478.75 mid on 3 pt move off lows. Tick +230 and breadth creeping higher to -38. Vpoc below at 1477.5 which could act as magnet. LOD looks pretty solid so that works against me. After 17 minutes its gone 5 ticks in my favor to vpoc to the tick but did not print 1 contract below where I am bid and has now come back to entry. Feeling urge to scratch. Stopped after 54 minutes and 1.25 MF. Breadth improved to +40 on exit.

3. Sold 1484.25 LVN on 2.25 pt move. Breadth +157 and tick +299. Bailed for +2 ticks after 44 min and 0 MA vs 1.5 MF (but no fill). They just would not give me my fill and it came back to entry twice with breadth continuing to make new highs so I bailed. Will try and short higher at nvpoc. Would have been stopped.

Edit: I am unable to post charts until I have 5 posts. So they will be coming soon!

Recap
Spoos opened OAIR above value and after a weak push higher sold off through prior days prominent LVN down to the prior day VAH where supply was shut off. As has been the case lately, a small dip in the morning is bought and then auctioned steadily higher the rest of the day and today was no different. Todays value shifted higher with vpoc moving to pHi and price closing on the high above value indicating market still hasnt reached a point where sellers want to aggressively step in and knock it down. Volume once again very poor at barely over a mill.

I think I made some serious rookie trades today. For example, just after 9am when it appeared OSLO was holding from below I was afraid to sell the 79s because that meant my first scale would have been through the lo and at the 77.5 LVN. But it was the right trade and offered up several scales if I took it. Instead I took the long from 77.5 and was stopped 1 tick off the lo. On my mid short I had the chance to take it off for a scratch but did not because there is always a battle in my head as to whether or not I am being a chicken and need to let the trade play out or if context truly did change making my trade poor. Tomorrow is another day though its quite frustrating as last week tuesday I was just $200 away from being breakeven and since then I've lost $600...

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ta.png
Views:	374
Size:	52.6 KB
ID:	100207   Click image for larger version

Name:	vp.png
Views:	628
Size:	148.1 KB
ID:	100208  
Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #7 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

thanks for your reply. i guess i dont understand what you mean by only looking at volume in my zones of interest. could you explain a better way? right now i have my zones of interest laid out pre-market and if there is a rotation into it of 3 pts or greater I take the trade at exactly my price because i dont have the ability to read the market and use judgement to adjust up or down.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #8 (permalink)
Mercer Island WA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninjatrader/Strategy Desk
Broker: Various
Trading: TF/NQ/ES/Stocks
 
djkiwi's Avatar
 
Posts: 561 since May 2010
Thanks: 981 given, 1,551 received


Profiler View Post
Hello all-
Im starting this thread in hopes of it becoming a collaborative effort to figure out how to make money trading the ES. A little background first: I was a very successful fesx scalper in the past. For 9 years i literally made money virtually every single day including only 1 losing day in 2005. At my peak in 2007 i was trading 6000 contracts a day working only 4 hours a day. I was living the life. I had edge and took it whenever i saw it. Until last year when some new algos took my edge away. Over 3 months my steady profits dwindled to nothing and after losing 8g's the first week of april i just walked away. I stand before you (figuratively speaking) a humbled man/ trader.

3 months ago i started trading spoos. I trade 1 lots, i am down $1300 so far including commish. I use volume profiling/ auction market theory. I have no edge. I understand the theory but as said in daltons books it depends on context. I am contextually blind the majority of each and every day. I am unable to prioritize the most important contextual factors at any given time. The worst part is that i dont know what i dont know. Ive been in various chat rooms and seen what other guys are looking at. I have the exact same charts as them. We are looking at the exact same things and they are crushing it while i am clueless. They are not smarter or better than me. They know how to filter the noise from the signal. They see subtle clues and understand the importance. I WAS the same way.

I know many of you are exactly like me. Lets help each other out and speed up the transition to profits. I will be posting here on a daily basis my nightly homework, my trades that i make and pnl. I will be posting a daily recap of what the market did as it relates to context. If you see me do a trade that was just obviously stupid, reply and tell me why! Im going to do whatever it takes to make money again so if you see me lacking in some way, tell me! This is trading, brutal honesty is required. If i wanted a friend i would get a dog (fyi i have one). Lets do this!

@Profiler,

Welcome to the forum!

As a first point, if you don't have an edge then don't trade live until you do. Plus you are understandably lacking confidence given your recent situation.

It is critical to at least have a solid grasp of the methodology before trading live in my opinion despite your significant trading experience. In addition, I'd suggest you build up your confidence and slow down the learning curve. Some people in your situation have difficulty putting losses behind them and charge in trying to impatiently recoup them. This in most cases ends up with a blown account.

Bear in mind that the ES is an extremely competitive instrument and although you have significant trading experience you will need a clear edge to compete with traders with 20 -30+ years of experience. There is also an increasing presence of algos on the ES as well. Different game with different players.

Go forward position

If you haven't already as a first step I would recommend reading these books by Jim Dalton.

Mind over markets
Markets in profile

Some people mistakenly believe these books are for people who trade with market profile. This is not the case and provides an excellent grounding in auction market theory in my opinion and well suits volume profilers.

Certain aspects of these books will resonate with you and your personality. Try and develop these aspects into a trading methodology that works for you. Practice in a paper trading account. Once you have a clear edge using this methodology, have proven risk management skills and are consistently profitable then trade live. Increase your size as trading metrics are achieved.

This is the approach that at least worked well for me trading futures. Although I'd been aggressively swing trading stocks for 25 years I spent quite a bit of time "retooling" when adding futures to the mix.

Good luck.

DJ

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to djkiwi for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #9 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

Economic Data: AAPL after the bell

ON Profile: We have a 6.5 pt range so far with the majority of the range/volume occuring inside yesterdays upper distribution. Overall the profile is nicely balanced. Yesterday's hi was taken out by 1.5 pts and rejected at the LVN from 10-17-07. ON lo took out yesterdays VAH by 1 tick.


Closing Swing: 1490-1486

Levels Above: 1486.75 CHVN, 1491.25 LVN (10-17-07), 1498 CLVN, 1501.25 CHVN, 1503 CLVN

Levels Below: 1482.75 CLVN, 1481.5 LVN/1480.75 nvpoc*, 1476.5 mcvpoc, 1473.75 nvpoc, 1469-70.25 gap zone

Hypo#1: Spoos open OAIR, rotate lower to 1481 area to pick up buyers and then auction higher thru the day (continuing the pattern lately).

Hypo#2: Spoos open OAIR, move higher to pHi and find rejection then explore lower, targeting 1480.75 nvpoc first and possibly lower if no buyers found.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	vp.png
Views:	280
Size:	77.8 KB
ID:	100272  
Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #10 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,054 given, 14,504 received


Keeping in mind that the cash close is ~ 87 ES, we will likely open AT or just above or just below the prior high. A bit different, IMO, from the typical "OAIR." Keep in mind the dow and NDX are opening very much above their highs..

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #11 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,054 given, 14,504 received

Forgot to mention--you did not mention this in your post, but I'm sure you are aware of the house vote today around lunch time.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #12 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

@josh

what prior hi were you referring to? friday's was 81 so i assume you mean monday but i am not including it as underlying was closed. at any rate, did this end up being a typical OAIR in your eyes?

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #13 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

1. Long 1488 OSHI on 1.5 pt pb as OSHI appears to be holding. Breadth -160 and negative all morning while tick is mostly positive. Very tight day range so far and hi is currently 1489.5 so possible rejection of yHi in move to explore lower. Stopped after 5 min and .25 MF.

2. Sold 1487 mid/vwap/1 tick above OSLO on 2.5 pt move up off low. Vpoc 1 tick above. Breadth -200 and tick +100. A poor looking low is currently in place but that could be just buyers now willing to let it drop any further. Scaled after 15 mins and .5 MA.

3. Bot 1489.5 IBHI/LVN on 1.5 pt pb from hi. Breadth -111 and tick -300. We have a neutral or neutral extreme day thus far and perhaps poor breadth doesn't bode well for this trade/day becoming neutral extreme. Scratched after 29 minutes at cash close with .5 MF vs 1.25 MA.






Recap
Spoos opened OAIR above value and made a weak push towards pHi before sellers auctioned it down to pVAH area. A pretty poor low formed there but sellers could do no better and as usual buyers slowly crept in and took it higher. We now have 3 consecutive neutral extreme days and new 5 year highs. Surprisingly buyers could not take out the ONHi which is a first in awhile. Overall today was extremely boring. Value was established overlapping higher. Vpoc shifted up about 6 pts. Price closed higher and at or above value. Aapl earnings after the bells has changed that situation though. Volume was a paltry 933k. Is this the new normal?

I don't know what to say about my trading performance today. Perhaps my first long was a force given that breadth and volume was so poor and expectations were for a rotational day. My second trade was legit and third trade I think as well. Any thoughts?

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #14 (permalink)
SoCal, CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT
Broker: Mirus/Zen-fire
Trading: currency futures
 
Posts: 21 since Feb 2010
Thanks: 4 given, 15 received

Add regular volume bars to your chart. Two very large 3 min. volume spikes at 7:30 am pt. on down bars. Looks like the big boys were very active (potential buying). Add a little Wyckoff to ur volume profiling.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #15 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

@Hawk9

yes, I normally have regular 3 min volume bars but im temporarily trading off my laptop so screen space is limited. What are these wyckoff things you speak of? how does it help you?

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #16 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

Economic Data: claims, LEI

ON Profile: So much for aapl getting wacked and taking spoos down with it. ES is trading down a measly 3 handles which certainly is a sign of strength. What would it do if aapl was up $50? After initially dropping some 8 pts and trading to the 1482.75 CLVN to the tick, buyers have stepped in and lifted it higher up above yesterdays vpoc. Its building a small balance area around the 1486.75 CHVN with vpoc at 1487. I still think sellers will step in at the open but I'm not expecting them to get very far.





Closing Swing: 1491-1488.25

Levels Above: 1487.25 nvpoc, 1491.25 LVN/pHi, 1495.75 CLVN, 1502.75 CHVN

Levels Below: 1482.75 CLVN/ONLO, 1480.75 nvpoc*, 1476.5 mc vpoc, 1473.75 nvpoc

Hypo#1- Spoos open OAIR, chop around a bit then sell off to 1480.75 nvpoc then bounce back to close 1487.

Hypo#2- Spoos open OAIR, chop around a bit then push higher above pHi and find rejection around 1495.75 CLVN.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #17 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

1. Sold 1496.5 on 4.75 pt move. Breadth +396 and tick +600. Moved it 3 ticks above 1495.75 CLVN given strength of market. Scaled after 5 minutes and .25 MA. Second scale given.

2. Bot 1496.75 IBHI on 1 pt move down. Breadth +340 and tick 0. Anticipating IBHI to hold and new highs made as internals are all strong with tick most positive all day and breadth strong as well. Breadth is off highs though. Stopped after 14 min and 0 MF. Breadth continued declining to 310 and tick after being mostly positive all day began to straddle the zero line. This trade was probably an avoid for several reasons.

3. Long 1492.5 mid on 5.25 pt pb. Breadth +239 and tick around zero. Breadth continuing its steady decline from +400 high. Stopped after 7 min and .75 MF. Longs abandoning ship now.

4. Sold 1487.5 open price with breadth +100 and tick +300. Stopped after 4 minutes and 0 MF. Man I am trading like a donkey today.






Recap
What a day. Spoos opened right at yesterdays vpoc and had an open drive higher. Breadth and volume were all very high and off to the races it went which is just mind boggling considering aapl opened down 50-60 bucks. What was reason for this? Shorts panicking when a huge aapl gap down cant even put a dent in the ES???

At end of day, we have value higher once again, vpoc higher and price higher. Volume was significantly higher than previous day and the highest in weeks. Today however the daily candle has a nice long wick on top meaning finally we have reached a point where sellers felt comfortable stepping in and pushing back.

As for my trading, man terrible... I recognized within 2 minutes we had an open drive and yet was too afraid to jump in and just buy something. I tried to buy the first pb to mid but only a few hundred printed so no fill. I went long and short a point off the high/low of the day in total rookie moves. I think my mid trade was legit but just didnt work out.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #18 (permalink)
Mercer Island WA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninjatrader/Strategy Desk
Broker: Various
Trading: TF/NQ/ES/Stocks
 
djkiwi's Avatar
 
Posts: 561 since May 2010
Thanks: 981 given, 1,551 received


Profiler View Post
Economic Data: claims, LEI

I still think sellers will step in at the open but I'm not expecting them to get very far.

Hypo#1- Spoos open OAIR, chop around a bit then sell off to 1480.75 nvpoc then bounce back to close 1487.

Hypo#2- Spoos open OAIR, chop around a bit then push higher above pHi and find rejection around 1495.75 CLVN.

@Profiler

I'm not sure if you do this, but it helps to look at the bigger picture even trading smaller timeframes. Here is a chart of the ES since the 16th. What is fairly obvious is we have been in a fairly pronounced uptrend. Successively higher or overlapping value and POC and closes generally above the value area high or close. For this reason I'd only be looking at longs below the days value area as a starting point. Today was a little different with the close at the VAL and POC.



In this type of market I believe the low hanging fruit is buying below value in an uptrend. After the drop my system generated an auto buy signal at the swing turn below the VAL for the day. See blue arrow. Although the swing down was a little steep for my liking it's a valid signal worthy of further evaluation.

I see you like to use the tick. Here is the tick for the last two days. Yesterday there were no opportunities as evidenced by a fairly neutral tick in the early part of the session and a fairly obvious balanced profile.

Today was a different story. Notice the tick on the drop at about 9.30 am. The bottom chart shows a 13 period ema of the tick. We could see it going into severe negative. For a buy signal to be valid I want to see evidence of a few things. The overarching theme is I want to see longer timeframe participants cutting off the downward move by forcing short covering and providing further momentum buying. A trader needs to look at what buyers and sellers are doing and continually reassess who is in control in my opinion.



This is done by looking for a fairy aggressive swift upwards movement of the tick and a confirming cumulative delta story. We saw a fairly aggressive movement on the tick.

Let's now look at the delta. We could see fairly aggressive selling on the swing down. Notice the 10.46 am and 10.48 am bars. No buying at all as shown by the closing delta being 7590 and 7281 which is over 90% of the delta low. We could also see the 10.48 bar close in only 3 minutes. So our thesis here is buyers have stepped aside and we wait to see what will happen. We could see involvement on the reversal 11.10 am bar. We know that it is likely at least a proportion of the last swing down consists of laggards and weak handed shorts so we should expect at least a small momentum pop as some of these exit. We want to also see newly initiated longs to ensure a sustainable move. There was nothing on the profile that supported momentum buying in my opinion.



So when you say "you still think sellers will step in at the open but I'm not expecting them to get very far" what is the basis of this assumption? Also what are the mechanisms you are using to test these assumptions as the day unfolds? It's not clear to me your criteria when evaluating the trade prior to pulling the trigger so you may find it useful to expand your trade decision criteria.


Cheers
DJ

Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to djkiwi for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #19 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

@djkiwi

thanks for the reply DJ. I'll be first to admit my analysis is sub-par and needs to get to a higher level. I know this but also I am constantly thinking in my head "i dont even know what questions to ask" to tackle the subject of how to get better. what am i looking for? what should i notice and what is significant?

So what was my thinking when I said I didnt expect sellers to get very far? Well, first of all, I do look at bigger picture daily and the uptrend is obvious. I combined that with the fact that the last 4 days spoos have opened with a small sell off that buyers stepped into and grinded higher the rest of the day. Secondarily, everyone was keyed on the aapl gap down so I thought it would give further reason to potential sellers looking at an unch open on the ES (even though over last 4 months aapl has decreased ~40% while ES continued on to 5 yr hi's showing no relationship). So I was expecting them to auction it lower to that prior vpoc at 1480.75.

As far as my criteria for pulling the trigger on a trade, I am just trying to use real basic stuff. Buying IBHI, mid, fading moves to a nvpoc or a CLVN. Trying to think about what day type is unfolding. For example today with my 2 trades off the IB, I was expecting the directional movement to continue. First it seemed like a trend up day but then we had the reversal and at the time the daily candle had a huge wick above and it seemed we had an upside breakout and failure so I was expecting it to go from one side of balance all the way to the other. Turned into a neutral day...

So please, keep the feedback coming, I am all ears. Some charts of yours don't make sense to me as I dont look at renko or delta so if you want to show them to me, please be sure to explain it very well.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Profiler for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #20 (permalink)
Mercer Island WA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninjatrader/Strategy Desk
Broker: Various
Trading: TF/NQ/ES/Stocks
 
djkiwi's Avatar
 
Posts: 561 since May 2010
Thanks: 981 given, 1,551 received

@Profiler

Actually, to tell the truth I think I'm going to hurt you more than help as our styles are so different I may end up confusing you and sending you on a wild goose chase.

As a first step I'd suggest you have a good read through the posts of @Private Banker and also study the webinars of @FuturesTrader71. He also has a website. FT71s style appears to be a very close fit and Privatebanker shows a master at work on the day timeframe. A couple of things stand out:

1. You don't seem to be sure what type of trader you want to be. Do you want to be a scalper or day trader?
2. You seem to be good at identifying the right levels but seem to be unsure what to do when price gets there. If you study the posts/videos of PB and FT71 that should help.

For what it's worth I'd strongly suggest you consider moving from scalping to daytrading as you will likely experience the same algo issues as the fesx but probably worse.

Cheers
DJ

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to djkiwi for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #21 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

Economic Data: new homes

ON Profile: We have a very distinct p-shaped profile thus far. I really didnt expect spoos to be back up here when I woke up given they were trading 1487-ish when I went to sleep but apparently there was some good news out of europe and/or japan. The current hi is 1 tick below yesterdays RTH hi and the low is 2 ticks above yesterdays RTH lo- which also happens to be a CHVN. So it seems 1486.75 is seen as too cheap and market now likely to check the 1502.75 CHVN and see if new buyers show up or supply overwhelms. ON vpoc stands at 1494.75.




Closing Swing: 1492.5-1489.5

Levels Above: 1499.25 CLVN, 1502.75 CHVN**, 1509 CLVN

Levels Below: 1493.25 LVN, 1490.5 nvpoc, 1488.5 CLVN, 1486.75 CHVN*/1487.25 MCVPOC, 1482.75 CLVN, 1480.75 nvpoc*

Hypo#1- Spoos open OAIR around VAH, sell off to 1493.25 LVN from yesterday or 1490.5 nvpoc to pick up buyers then bounce higher through the day.

Hypo#2- Spoos open OAIR, push higher to 1499.25 CLVN/1500 and fail then head back down to 1490.5 nvpoc.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #22 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

@djkiwi

yeah, FT71's style is what I am trying to emulate. It may seem as though I am a scalper but thats only because I am trading 1 lots now. My goal is to increase size and then scale out and potentially let winners ride all day in best case scenarios.

at any rate, please keep dropping by to contribute anything, particularily if you see me making glaring mistakes.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #23 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

1. Sold 1492.5 mid/vwap on 3.5 pt move up off double bottom/poor-ish low. Breadth +96 and tick +172. Vpoc shifted to my entry 1 min. after entering. Expectations are for a rotational day but we have a double distribution type profile at the moment. Breadth opened ~ +250 and printed hi +300 shortly thereafter and has steadily sold off but bouncing off zero line. Scaled after 10 min and .25 MA.

2. Long 1694.25 LVN on 3.25 pt move down. Breadth +158 and tick -300. Scaled after 6 mins and 0 MA. Second scale given.

3. Sold 1499.25 CLVN on 3.5 pt move up into cash close with breadth +273 and tick +670. Scaled after 3 min and 0 MA. Second scale given.






Recap
Spoos opened OAIR inside value and above vpoc. A move up to prior highs failed 1 tick below that set the stage for the move down to close nvpoc 1490.5...unfortunately market stopped 1 tick before and then proceeded with its usual grind higher. The close was pretty wild with some good swings. It became clear early on that the day would develop into a rotational, balanced day and that's what we got. Vpoc continues its march higher along with an overlapping higher value area. Price closed incrementally higher inside value, basically right at the vpoc for a truly balanced day.

I felt my trading was good today but could have been better. Market didn't give me the nvpoc close trade I wanted and I failed to pay up for it as well. I really don't know when to front run and when to hold my ground yet so until I develop some sort of feel I will continue to put my orders at my numbers exactly. I also really thought hard about selling 1498.5 after it 1 ticked higher with tick being negative combined with rotational day expectations. I guess its good I at least noticed it in real time. Hardest part is pulling the trigger though. I am happy to end the week with a positive day. I need more of them.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Profiler for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #24 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received





We have all time frames trending higher. Additionally we are at 5 year highs so all time frames are likely to be active in this market. The only negative I can say about this market relates to its volume. Dalton says that moves in one direction on declining volume are likely to revert to the mean. This market is definitely auctioning higher but on very poor volume. Since the new year, ES is averaging a paltry 1.16 million contracts per day in the RTH session. September 2012 averaged 1.34 million so we are down 15% from then. Is this just a function of declining volatility? Any thoughts on this?

At any rate, trading from the long side seems to be the safer trade for now.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #25 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,054 given, 14,504 received


Profiler View Post
The only negative I can say about this market relates to its volume. Dalton says that moves in one direction on declining volume are likely to revert to the mean. This market is definitely auctioning higher but on very poor volume. Since the new year, ES is averaging a paltry 1.16 million contracts per day in the RTH session. September 2012 averaged 1.34 million so we are down 15% from then. Is this just a function of declining volatility? Any thoughts on this?

As much as I respect Dalton (or some others who I've heard say that declining volume is a sign of weakness or potential reversion to the mean), this is simply flawed thinking. This is one of those "rules" you hear, you read it in all the books and hear it said by so many people, but it simply is not true. Just look at previous multi-month grinds higher and you will see time and time again that the slow grind up can continue for much longer than anyone thinks, on paltry volume.

Sometimes a market will move up on low volume, sometimes on healthy/high volume. Either is prone to continuation or reversal. This is true on an intraday basis as well. Look how many intraday moves begin with exhaustion from one side, and then on super low volume (during the middle of the day usually), the market will trend the rest of the whole day.

The best indicator of supply and demand is price, NOT volume. Volume tells you nothing about supply or demand, it only indicates interest in participating, and in establishing value. In the most objective way I can express, demand in this market has been MUCH higher than supply this year, and on a macro scale, since 2009, while most people have been staying out or selling because the world has been coming to an end any day now for several years. How can I objectively say this? Because prices are HIGHER now than they were. That's it, and it is this simple.

Since the last day of 2012, the S&P has had 13 positive closes, and 5 negative ones. It has traded from 100 handles up, from 1400 to 1500 (the gap up on Jan 2 counts, very much so) with a max rotation down of 17 handles. You tell me, who has done better, the ones who have been scared away by "poor" volume, or the ones who have taken the high probability trade and BTFD?


Profiler View Post
At any rate, trading from the long side seems to be the safer trade for now.

Yes, and it is too obvious for most people to do. Not to say there aren't short plays; on the contrary, in the day timeframe there have been a few, but there have been far more on the long side. On the swing (multi day/week) timeframe, there have been NO reasons to short this year, and only one or two good opportunities in all of Q4 2012.

By the way, you may want to give the cash chart a look:


Consider that the S&P traded as high as 1576 back in 2007, the all-time high, and that investors and people with real money (the ones who actually move the market) likely are referencing a cash chart, not an ES daily that has been back-adjusted 22 times since then, or any other futures chart using any of the other many ways to splice a futures chart to make it continuous. In the ES world, we are 20 handles from the high, but in the real world of cash, we are 70+ handles from the all-time high. Said another way, there is one chart that always shows where the market actually traded, and it's not a futures chart.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to josh for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #26 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

@josh

very true josh about these low volume upswings just continuing on...

and thanks for providing the cash chart, I had been getting very confused about how spoos could be 20 handles off highs but the cash over 70. its def an argument for not using back-adjusted data which brings me to another question. if some people are using back-adjusted and some arent and both groups are using volume profiling and both are making money, does that mean that entries and exits don't really matter, just discipline and money management?

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #27 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

Economic data: durables, homes

ON Profile: Very slow action overnight. Light volume and small 4.5 pt range almost entirely within yesterdays value area. ON vpoc sitting at 1496.5, basically inline with friday's. Shape is mostly balanced but the low showed better rejection. Really not a lot to say about it. I had thought with all the headlines of 5 years over the weekend there might be a decent pop to start the day as the public sends in some buy orders for fear of missing out. Per my weekend post, uptrend is strong in all time frames. I see no reason to have a sell side bias today.



Closing Swing: 1499.25-1495

Levels Above: 1499.25 CLVN, 1502.75 CHVN*, 1509 CLVN, 1514 CHVN/nvpoc*

Levels Below: 1496 nvpoc/1495.5 MC VPOC, 1493.5 CLVN, 1490.25 CHVN/nvpoc, 1488.5 CLVN, 1486.75 CHVN, 1482.75 CLVN

Hypo#1- Spoos open OAIR, inside value and drive weakly higher to pHi then fade 5-6 handles before the pattern of grind up buying begins anew and close near highs, targeting 1502.75.

Hypo#2- Spoos open OAIR, grind higher to 1502.75 and fail then auction down to 1493.5 CLVN or perhaps 1490.5 nvpoc/CHVN.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #28 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,054 given, 14,504 received


Profiler View Post
and thanks for providing the cash chart, I had been getting very confused about how spoos could be 20 handles off highs but the cash over 70. its def an argument for not using back-adjusted data which brings me to another question. if some people are using back-adjusted and some arent and both groups are using volume profiling and both are making money, does that mean that entries and exits don't really matter, just discipline and money management?

Absolutely not; what it means is that there are different ways to determine entry and exit points, including different methodologies.

The issue in my eyes is this--how much do we care about old prices? When making fresh highs, the only reference the market has for these prices are those that were traded in 2007. But, does the market (in other words, anyone with money) care about intraday-level data from 6 years ago? To think so is, IMO, naive. The daily cash chart provides a nice view of where the index traded at that time, and it is to be viewed as an area of balance as a whole; all the profiling that needs to be done can be done visually with a daily chart. Even from month to month, due to the futures/cash convergence as the contract nears expiration (usually about 5-8 handles from when it becomes front month to next rollover), there can be discrepancies.

We have to appreciate that working out these things with a futures contract is art, not science. There is no right or wrong way to do this, so we have to adopt some belief system and work with it. I firmly believe that futures data from 6 years ago is totally irrelevant in the current context, but if someone believes differently, and takes a trade and makes money, who am I to argue? People every day are generating lines on their chart, and most of their observations are likely based on hindsight bias, or pure randomness, but in trading, all that matters is that enough people want to buy or sell, and the reasons at the end of the day do not matter and cannot even be known.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to josh for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #29 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

1. Long 1493.5 CLVN on 4.75 pt move down. Breadth -229 and trending lower with tick -577. Stopped after 7 min and .25 MF.

2. Sold 1494 on 2.75 pt bounce after 7 pt move down with breadth -231 and tick 0ish. Possible trend down day-toothy profile. Low looks good however. Stopped after 20 mins and .5 MF.

3. Long 1495.75 1 tick ahead of mid on 2.5 pt move. Breadth -160 and tick -600. Scaled after 27 min and .75 MA. No second scale.






Recap
Spoos opened OAIR above previous value a tick below pHi and were immediately sold by responsive sellers. Price managed to come back to the open only once the rest of the day which surprised me as I expected a 1500 print. Per usual, after an early sell off that stopped 2 ticks short of friday's low, buyers stepped in and auctioned the ES higher. Value was established inside of yesterdays VA with VAH to the tick the same but VAL shifted higher by a point. Vpoc also shifted upwards slightly and managed to pull the MC vpoc up a tick from 95.5 to 95.75. Price finished unchanged at this level. Volume garbage as usual at 987k.

Both today's hi and low featured strong rejections so I guess no surprise price closed in middle at vpoc. Market followed my hypothesis #1 to the tee but I still lost money. Frustrating how that happens. My first trade was a good trade I thought but I got stopped. I tried to get long again at 1490.5 nvpoc but market stopped 3 ticks before. My second trade is debatable. The low had a strong rejection but at that point the profile and internals looked very trend down-like. Tomorrow is another day...

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Profiler for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #30 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

Economic data: case shiller, consumer confidence

ON Profile: We have a double distribution so far with a bit of range expansion (ok 1 tick)! Yesterdays hi was not challenged as it stopped 3 ticks short. Yesterdays low however was taken out by 1 tick but buyers have stepped in and as a result we have vpoc sitting near the low at 1492. Perhaps today will finally be the day that sellers can find a nut? The LVN seperating the DD sits at 1493.75 which also happens to be a CLVN. However, that CLVN hasn't really been working the last few days so I'm not willing to place a bet on it working today. Ideally I would like to spoos to open around 1493, push up to the 1495.75 MC vpoc and get rejected then travel lower down to the 1486.75 CHVN for a bounce up to 1490.25.





Closing Swing:1498.-1495

Levels Above: 1495.75 MC vpoc**, 1499.25 CLVN, 1502.75 CHVN*, 1509 CLVN

Levels Below: 1490.25 CHVN, 1488.5 CLVN, 1486.75 CHVN*, 1482.75 CLVN*

Hypo#1- Spoos open OAIR, push lower to 1486.75 CHVN where buyers step in and grind it higher through the day (same ol' song).

Hypo#2- Spoos open OAIR, push higher to 1495.75 mc vpoc and find rejection then auction lower down to 1486.75 CHVN where buyers step in.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Profiler for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #31 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received


Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #32 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,054 given, 14,504 received

Profiler, look at a 5-10 minute chart and zoom out a bit. Where do you see sellers active?



It's not at 96.25--it's at 98 or slightly higher. So why would sellers start accepting a lower price, particularly in this super strong market? 95s are the upper VPOC area, but in a balanced market for the past 2 days, it simply has been more the midpoint and the most actively traded price--but it has generally not been a favorable place to initiate trade--that has been more in the low 90s and high 90s. In other words, 95/96 may be a fair price, but it's not the favorable price for good trade location. So in your hypothesis, just because we open below a fair price, really means nothing about whether that fair price will be a good place to expect a bounce.

Here is the relevant portion of my trading plan for this scenario today:



So while 96 may be important, the chart has shown no reason to really sell below that, yet. If sellers start becoming active lower, then it's a different ball game.

I also wrote this to remind myself of where we are:


Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to josh for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #33 (permalink)
Miami FL USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ensign 10, NT7 DOM
Broker: IB, IQ
Trading: Currency Futures
 
Cashish's Avatar
 
Posts: 803 since May 2011
Thanks: 811 given, 2,101 received


Profiler View Post
Ideally I would like to spoos to open around 1493, push up to the 1495.75 MC vpoc and get rejected then travel lower down to the 1486.75 CHVN for a bounce up to 1490.25.


josh View Post
Here is the relevant portion of my trading plan for this scenario today:

If sellers start becoming active lower, then it's a different ball game.

I also wrote this to remind myself of where we are:




Hi guys, I'm not an ES trader but I do trade with VP, MP and VWAP. IMO, trading is an art not a science.

I've had this taped to my daily check list folder so long it's almost unreadable.

Don't wait for it to happen
Don't even want it to happen
Just watch what does happen

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 5 users say Thank You to Cashish for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #34 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

good call @josh, you prolly have a few more coins in your pocket after today while i have a few less (so far). i appreciate your comments, they are opening my eyes, keep them coming!

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #35 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,054 given, 14,504 received


Profiler View Post
good call @josh, you prolly have a few more coins in your pocket after today while i have a few less (so far). i appreciate your comments, they are opening my eyes, keep them coming!

I did get the long at 93.50. But I did not sell the 97s/98s, as I was just too damned afraid to do so. I did not buy back at the 95 either, as a break out of balance as has happened today was not in my playbook. My play was to buy at the low, sell at the high (but only if it was VERY clearly a short which I did not see today), and then play the long side on a break up, short side on a break down, so my only buy now will be on a retest of the 98 area. Market clearly establishing value up here, but I am not willing to pay up this much. So I will only buy on a retest of previous value, down to 97.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #36 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

@josh- im working a 98.25 long as well. whats going to determine whether you buy 98 or 97?

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #37 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,054 given, 14,504 received


Profiler View Post
@josh- im working a 98.25 long as well. whats going to determine whether you buy 98 or 97?

Ideally it would be a sharp move down then another push or two lower, each time with less volume participation, a flattening delta, and a TICK divergence would be the icing. Also, just a general tape read to determine whether sellers have grown some balls or whether it's the usual. If that happens at 98s, I'll be a buyer there, but at that price I would prefer to see some buying response first before entering. I will almost do a blind buy at 97.25 if the above conditions look halfway decent. I do not need to see the market actually trade higher at that price before getting in, because responsive buying is all but guaranteed, and my stop will be tight even if I am wrong about that.

In my humble read of things, this market has already broken out and accepted higher prices, so anything lower than 99.25 will be at a discount at this point (funny how perception can change in a few hours isn't it?). FOMC, GDP, ADP payrolls all tomorrow, with China data Thursday night, and the big NFP on Friday, all reasons for people to perhaps preposition long and defend that position. Just thoughts and maybe totally wrong, and ultimately secondary to what we actually see, but it's still supporting data that can either be considered or ignored.

By the way, 99.25 is being well supported here and a buy here might well produce a good result. But it's just a personal choice to wait for a discount; that may lead to missing out on gains, and that is something anyone making that choice must accept.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to josh for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #38 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,054 given, 14,504 received

So here is the current picture:



At this point, a move below 99.25 would indicate that the market auctioned higher for buyers, did not find enough, and could not find enough buyers at previously accepted prices (1500), and thus has to auction even lower. This move up out of acceptance, and back all the way through it, if it happens, needs to be approached with caution. If this happens, I would want to see very clear evidence of buyers found on the auction down towards 98, if it were to make it that far. Otherwise, we may have a strong responsive burst of selling which I do not want to step in front of. This is where I am right now. I am more willing to buy higher at this point (99.50 or so), but again, need to see buyers first because a move down to 1500 and lower means the auction higher did not bring in enough buyers.

This type of activity can be tough to play. Sometimes I miss out by not jumping in higher; sometimes it pays off very well. We can't always get it "right," so we have to make a logical decision and be okay with that decision and the risks it entails, whatever the outcome.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to josh for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #39 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

@josh-
yeah they didnt want to take it below that 99.25 CLVN/previous 2 days hi or whatever reason it was. 98 is now mid/IBHI/LVN so nice confluence there.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #40 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

1. Sold 1496.5 1 tick ahead of pClose/2 ticks ahead of nvpoc on 2.25 pt move up. Breadth -29 and tick +184. Stopped after 6 min and .25 MF.

2. Sold 1495.5 mid on 2.5 pt move. Tick +50 and breadth -44. Stopped after 4 mins and .25 MF. Stupid trade, no edge, vpoc 2 ticks below then shifted to entry.






Recap
Spoos opened OAIR below value and responsive buyers immediately stepped in and took it to previous VAH where responsive sellers stepped in and auctioned it back down to lows aided by poor consumer confidence. Sellers have one good sell off in them per day it seems and after that they stepped aside as buyers went to work and spoos finally broke through 1500 level in a very trend-up type day. Price closed just a few ticks off highs. Vpoc moved higher and value area overlapped higher. Volume I guess was good at 1.26 mill, relatively speaking. Very pronounced LVNs at 1501 and 1498.25 left on the profile. That 1499.25/1498 area seems likely to be a key level in the days ahead.

My trading today was horrible. I definitely had a sell side bias (even though we are in a serious uptrend) and I front ran an nvpoc/prior settlement price by 2 ticks which is something I never do but I was anxious to get in. I got stopped at the then HOD. Then I sold a bounce to mid even though it had all the makings of the previous bounces off lows this market has been making in the morning. And the rest of the day I couldn't find a long set up since only 1.5/1.75 pt pullbacks were all that was offered. Feeling like I just have no clue what is going on...

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #41 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,054 given, 14,504 received

No need to despair. A question: what is your "trigger" for an entry? In other words, you sold there based on the fact that you thought the location was right, but what else, or is that pretty much it?

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #42 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

Josh-
I enter almost all my trades at a level-be it a CLVN, mid, IBHI or nvpoc. Very rarely do I take a trade in middle of no-where. Next thing I consider is the rotation into it, on first touch I will pretty much always take the trade if its more than 3 pts. Then I consider what type of day it is so far and what type of day I think it is likely to be. I'm less likely to fade a trend day with solid breadth but I will on a 6pt move into a major CLVN, for example. I will take a 1.5 pt pb to IBHI on first touch if I think range extension is likely. I am considering many things but not enough or I am not doing my analysis correctly-or both. What are you looking for? What am I missing?

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #43 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

Economic data: ADP, GDP, crude, FOMC

ON Profile: It was a very tight range until GDP came out and then we had some expansion. GDP caused a spike down to 1498.5 which was immediately bought. I expected that level to be defended and it was. Will it be again on second touch if it happens during RTH? Yesterdays hi was taken out by 2 ticks which surprised me as I thought there would be more exploration upwards after yesterdays strong rally and close on hi's. ON vpoc currently 1504.5.



Closing Swing:1505.5-1501.25

Levels Above:1506 ON Hi, 1509 CLVN, 1514 CHVN/nvpoc

Levels Below: 1499.25 CLVN/1498.25 LVN/IBHI*, 1497 CHVN, 1493.5 CLVN, 1490.25 nvpoc, 1488.5 CLVN

Hypo#1- Spoos open OAIR re-test yesterdays breakout area ~1498-99 then grind higher to 1509 CLVN.

Hypo#2- Spoos open OAIR push higher to 1509 and fail then move lower to 1503 CHVN.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #44 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,054 given, 14,504 received


Profiler View Post
Josh-
I enter almost all my trades at a level-be it a CLVN, mid, IBHI or nvpoc. Very rarely do I take a trade in middle of no-where. Next thing I consider is the rotation into it, on first touch I will pretty much always take the trade if its more than 3 pts. Then I consider what type of day it is so far and what type of day I think it is likely to be. I'm less likely to fade a trend day with solid breadth but I will on a 6pt move into a major CLVN, for example. I will take a 1.5 pt pb to IBHI on first touch if I think range extension is likely. I am considering many things but not enough or I am not doing my analysis correctly-or both. What are you looking for? What am I missing?

Well there is no right or wrong with these things, it's simply what view of the market gives you the best "read" possible. In other words, what do you want to see in order to be convinced that this trade has a high likelihood of working in your favor?

By the way, an open today above 1501 has me looking to be a buyer at that price, and above 98.25, a buyer there. I was very, very tempted to buy the 99 when the negative GDP number shocker caused the plunge down to 98.50, but I just never open positions before the cash open anymore. If the long side continues to be the best play as I expect it should today, hopefully we get enough concern over that GDP number to at least test the low again at 98s. Anyway, best to you today Profiler.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to josh for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #45 (permalink)
Chicago IL
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Trading: Futures
 
Posts: 117 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 118 received

I appreciate the discussion going on here. Good work guys.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to drw112 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #46 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,054 given, 14,504 received

Quite stealthily and quietly they have bought it up aggressively from 99 (just look at the new TICK high of day at 10:45am ET, when the market is trading at the lows of the day). A buy was very tempting there but given fed day, I am still flat with no position yet, as I don't expect much to happen in the next 3 hours really, no range extension anyway. I was holding for 98.25, and was a little surprised that the GDP low at 98.50 was not tested. We may even see new lows down to 98, but buyers have swung momentum in their favor for sure at this point.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #47 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

i actually forgot I had a working order in before the GDP number so got long 99.25 pre-market for a quick scalp. stared long and hard about buying it again in RTH but on first touch only a few printed then when it finally went through it was only on a 1.5 pt move and I was expecting ON LO to get taken out so was working 98 bid and turns out 99.25 was the buy...now I watch.

The pattern of late has been to open, go up to previous days Hi, sell off 5-6-7 handles then grind higher. Today we have some big news possible with FOMC later but if the patter holds this current move up to mid will continue higher then pullback to mid will be a buy. See if it happens...

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #48 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

1. Bot 1499.25 CLVN on 5.75 pt spike after GDP release. Admittedly I forgot I had this order in the book before such a huge number. Got lucky on this one. Scaled after 30 seconds and .75 MA. Second scale given.

2. Long 1502.25 mid on .75 pt pb thinking pattern of recent days will play out again as low below looks good and it is from key level. Breadth -39 and tick 0. Stopped after 34 min and .75 MF. Prolly too agressive as it only went .75 pts through mid and stopped before an LVN and market likely to balance before FOMC?




Recap

Spoos opened OAIR in value and per the usual pattern went up to pHI (to the tick this time) and sold off. However, this time after a nice bottom formed buyers were never really able to get above the open price/lvn that formed at 1503.5. And from that we got a sell off into the close and close on lows. Importantly we closed below the 1499.25 breakout level and back at the familair 1495.5 mcvpoc. Allis not lost for the bulls though. Vpoc was unchanged, value area posted an inside day and we have a double top on the daily chart that indicates an unfinished auction. If you include today into the recent MC going back to 1-22, todays action dragged the MC VPOC up 1.5 pts to 1497 so value still being established higher.

Edit: I forgot to mention volume. Todays volume was the 2nd highest in 3 weeks and about 20% higher than January average. Direction was down so something to consider.

As for my trading, I'm pretty annoyed. I had a few non-trades where I wasnt filled and thought about paying up but didn't because I never know when to pay up or not so I just don't. They were good ideas, I was in the book ready to go but no fill. My mid trade today was stupid.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #49 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

Economic data: claims, income/spending, PMI

ON Profile: Very tight overnight range so far of only 4 pts before the 730 data comes out. Sellers were cut off by the close yesterday so they continued their business afterwards and built upon yesterdays sell-off a bit. Vpoc stands at 1494 so below yLO. The market's character changed a bit yesterday with price closing below value and on lows for the first time in a long time. I see this as nothing more than a pullback in the context of a larger bull market but maybe the sell-side will start paying out a bit more over the next few days.

Yesterday had two distinct LVN's: 1503.5 and 1498.5, the latter lining up with a CLVN on the composite a tick above and also was the key breakout level that led to the move above 1500 so I am very interested in seeing if bears defend that and I will most likely be a seller there on first touch. 7:30 data is out and it caused a spike to 91.25 which was instantly defended so that is at least the 4th time its been down there and rejected quite strongly.


Lets say we open 1394 which would be an out-of-range open, what is most likely to happen? Responsive buying to push back into yesterdays range and to the prior mc vpoc at 1495.75 or CHVN at 1397?

Closing Swing: 1498-1495

Levels Above: 1495.75 mc vpoc/1497 CHVN, 1498.5 LVN/CLVN**, 1501.25 nvpoc, 1503.5 LVN, 1505.5 double hi

Levels Below: 1493.25 CLVN, 1490.25 nvpoc, 1488.5 CLVN, 1486.75 CHVN, 1482.75 CLVN*, 1480.75 nvpoc

Hypo#1- Spoos open OAOR and push higher first, potentially up to 1498.5 level then fade looking for buyers. Expecting buyers to show up at 1390 or 1387.

Hypo#2- Spoos open OAOR and sell off to 1387 then grind higher into close finding rejection at 1498.5.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #50 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

1. Sold 1498.5 LVN on 5.25 pt move up wiht tick +180 and breadth -44. Stopped after 10 min and .5 MF. Unreal, really fucking pissed this trade didnt work.

2. Long mid 1496.75 on 2 pt pb. Breadth -93 and tick -300. Scratched after 2 mins because its a violation of my rule to only do mid trades on first touch. Plus only 2 handle pb. Would have been loser.

3. Long 1495.25 OPEN on 3 pt pb with tick -600 and breadth -26. Immediately scratched due to poor placement in profile. Looking to get long at VAL near 1494.25. Would have been loser.

4. Long 1494.25 LVN/OSLO on 1.75 pt move down targeting return to vpoc at 1496. Breadth -40 and tick -300. Scaled after 6 min and .25 MA. No second scale.






Recap

Spoos opened OAIR below value and instead of responsive buyers making first push higher, initiative sellers stepped in. Definitely someone got advance word of a good PMI though because buyers quickly stepped in and ramped it through my key resistance level by just enough to stop me out to the tick and then collapsing. Typical grind higher through the mid part of the day but sellers stepped in at the 98.5 level late in the day and held it down. VPOC shifted decidedly lower today thanks to heavy volume at the close. Value area shifted completely lower. Price managed to nestle back inside yesterdays range for basically no change. Volume was better than average again at 1.33 though still garbage compared to the days of yore.

My trading sucked today. First trade was a good trade, just bad luck, maybe my entry could have been better but still I really thought that would be a winner. The next 2 trades were a result of restlessness. Ended the day with a winner which felt nice. Overall I still have no feel about what auction theory is all about. I'm just a robot trying to play CLVNs and vpocs without really understanding whats going on. And I know there are more trades out there but I just dont see them or I am too scared to pull the trigger.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Profiler for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #51 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

Economic Data: non-farms, Michigan, ISM, construction

ON Profile: We've got a 5 handle range with an upward bias before the non-farms number. It seems market is going to straddle the CLVN at 1499 before the number to decide which CHVN will be auctioned today. I'm going to leave orders out on the other side of balance below the CHVN's to see if I can get filled on a spike with rotation back to the CHVN. So my orders are at 1509 and 1488.5.

Lately non-farms days have been quite a bore with maybe a 7 handle pop on the number then an extremely boring RTH. Unless a crazy number comes out, I am expecting a balanced, rotational day. ISM and construction are big numbers that could also make an impact. First trading day of month also could have an upward bias due to fund in-flows(is this statistically confirmed?).




So the number is out and no big deal, a little spike thats it. Currently trading 1503.5)

Closing Swing: 1496.5-1493

Levels Above: 1501.25 nvpoc, 1502.75 CHVN/1503.5 LVN, 1505.5 dbl top, 1509 CLVN, 1514 CHVN

Levels Below: 1499 CLVN, 1497 CHVN, 1493.75 nvpoc, 1490.25 nvpoc, 1488.5 CLVN

Hypo#1- Spoos open OAOR, rotate down to yesterdays Hi then auction higher rest of day.

Hypo#2- Spoos open OAOR, rotate higher to 1505.5 double top and fail then target 1497 CHVN.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #52 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

1. Sold 1503.5 LVN pre-market on 2.75 pt move. Stopped after 4 mins and .25 MF.

2. Long 1502 OSLO after making lows and failing to reach yHi by 2 ticks. Tick +300 and holding positive. Breadth +380. Stopped after 5 mins and .5 MF.

3. Long 1505.5 on 2 pt pb after breakout. Breadth +357 and tick +100. Possible better trade location below at 1503.75 mid/ledge. Stopped after 17 min and 1.25 MF. Done for the day. And the better trade location would have been a winner.






Recap
Spoos opened OAOR and responsive sellers made the first push, down to yesterdays Hi/1500 to the tick. Off to the races it went with only 2 buyable pullbacks offered up (IMO). We end up with a very p-shaped profile and interestingly price closed inside value, near the mid when I had expected a rally into the close and price settle on hi's. Vpoc migrated a solid 15 handles higher. Value area significantly higher as well. Volume was good (relatively speaking). Price did manage to close above the 1405.5 prior highs making it new 5 year hi's on a closing basis.

My trading didn't go well again. Funny how the market didn't care about the 1403.5 LVN during pre-market when I sold but during RTH it stopped there to the tick on first touch. Second trade, maybe it was too agressive or maybe it just didnt work. Third trade, man, that 1405.5 level had been tested and held 3 times to the tick so I figured once we went through it it would hold from above. And it did put up a fight but still stopped me out and ended up going back to mid. I end the day/week with a loss and no chance to get it back until Monday.

As far as auction theory, I'm just not understanding it. I dont understand context. How do you know whats most important at any given moment? Who has been in my shoes and can take me to the next level? At least I can look forward to ribs at twin anchors tonight. Been cravin' that prohibition sauce...

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Profiler for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #53 (permalink)
Boston, Massachusetts
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: AMP/NinjaBrokerage/Continuum/Rithmic
Trading: ES
 
Posts: 287 since Jun 2011
Thanks: 1,293 given, 1,101 received

Profiler,

The ES is very choppy at the moment with both historical and implied volatility at multi-year lows. The lack of volatility may make it more challenging when testing new ideas or strategies. You may wish to consider looking at markets with more movement at this time (such as the 6J). IMHO, it is best to leave the choppy ES to the market-makers (who certainly love it at the moment) and to other very seasoned traders/pros. Have a good weekend.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #54 (permalink)
La Jolla, CA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
 
Private Banker's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,040 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 1,713 given, 3,849 received


Nyati View Post
Profiler,

The ES is very choppy at the moment with both historical and implied volatility at multi-year lows. The lack of volatility may make it more challenging when testing new ideas or strategies. You may wish to consider looking at markets with more movement at this time (such as the 6J). IMHO, it is best to leave the choppy ES to the market-makers (who certainly love it at the moment) and to other very seasoned traders/pros. Have a good weekend.

Not to be argumentative in any way and respect your views but there are a few things that are inaccurate with what you've said here just to give you a heads up. First of all, there are no market makers in ES. Second, the ES is not a trending market typically on an intra-day basis and there are certain ways to trade it that are very fruitful if you know how to do it. This involves size and trade location. Some of the best traders in the world trade the ES every single day and make more money than you can imagine.

I started trading futures in the ES and can speak from experience that there is huge opportunity here. Its just a matter of perspective really.

Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Private Banker for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #55 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

@privatebanker

Agreed- definitely some people still crushing it in ES. Feel free to share some of your ES insight over here. I am starved for proper interpretations of auction theory.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Profiler for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #56 (permalink)
La Jolla, CA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
 
Private Banker's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,040 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 1,713 given, 3,849 received

@Profiler,

Interesting thread and back story. So did you blow out? I don't get it. Trading such huge size and then walking away on a small loss? Maybe I missed something there.

Anyway, I've seen some good suggestions being made here and thought I'd just ask you what are you using for your trade criteria? I see you're taking trades based off of volume levels which is fine but how do you know if these levels are correct? It appears you're looking to emulate FT71's approach which is great. The danger in what you're showing with your trades is that it appears to be very myopic.

Glad to see you've read into Market Profile as well which is great. The ES works very well with MP. If you were following MP, Friday's trade locations were pretty clear.

Open gap up, out of balance. Responsive selling into Thursday's excess high (extreme). That's your trade location. You could've also referenced Wednesday's excess ledge and sold that into the high of Thursday and flipped long. I would've just waited and favored the long however. Once the trade location was identified, you could've just looked at the ON session's VWAP which was confluent with your trade location. You could then see how the order flow remained long bias throughout the remainder of the day.



Just a heads up, the VWAP below is rounded to the nearest tradeable price which results in a wavey/stair step look.



RTH chart showing the order flow move higher.



Same RTH chart with the footprint showing the same thing.




Anyway, I noticed you've stopped in on the CL thread and just thought I'd give you a quick tip if its at all helpful for you as I was pointed to your thread by @djkiwi. Don't intend to change your trading perspective or anything but it just seemed like it might be helpful for you and thought I would show you how I would've approached this particular day.

Reply With Quote
The following 9 users say Thank You to Private Banker for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #57 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

no blow out, nothing of the sort. i walked away with my account 8k off all time highs. i was a tape reader, i worked the book when position in the queue itself was an edge (though not enough alone), jumping in and out of the market for 1-2-3 ticks only but all the time. then over xmas break of 2011 somebody flipped the switch on a new algo that just changed the game completely. the feel/character of the product instantly changed from that of a human to just a robot. i could write a few pages about what happened but i assure you i wouldnt have left if I thought i was leaving money on the table. unless you ever actively scalped on the time frame I did, you probably wont understand.

Yes, i am trying to trade using FT71's style. And yes, my trades are generally very myopic because I really dont know how all the pieces fit together. So I latch onto seemingly obvious things. I will fade a move into a prominent LVN from a prior day because that means it was a rejected price so maybe it will be rejected again, right? Or i will buy a re-test of the IBHI after a breakout. But sometimes I think I make good trades too for right reasons. Like friday, I was looking to get long around 1500. I had an order in at 1499.25 which was an important level the prior 2 days. But we opened OR, fell to 1500.5 then bounced back to the open swing low at 1502 and printed some volume there (over 4k on the bid from your footprint) so I thought "ok, we failed to touch the prior days hi by 2 ticks and are now holding the OSLO, get long". so i did at 1502. I use a 6 tick stop and got stopped out at 1500.5 on next move down to 1500 and from there up it went. was that a bad trade/analysis or just unlucky? you never know, but should i have know that another drop to 1500 was more likely than not?

i enjoy reading your stuff on crude because i think your analysis is more about market behavior, irrespective of what the underlying is. my brain isnt trained correctly how to think about the market in the right away, what is significant, what isnt (yet). like your short from the vpoc right off the open the other day. it made no sense to me at all! so please keep posting, anything and everything is helpful!

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Profiler for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #58 (permalink)
California - USA/Rio grande do sul-Brasil.
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: tradestation, ninja trader
Trading: Futuros
 
Posts: 88 since Apr 2011
Thanks: 851 given, 23 received


Private Banker View Post
Not to be argumentative in any way and respect your views but there are a few things that are inaccurate with what you've said here just to give you a heads up. First of all, there are no market makers in ES. Second, the ES is not a trending market typically on an intra-day basis and there are certain ways to trade it that are very fruitful if you know how to do it. This involves size and trade location. Some of the best traders in the world trade the ES every single day and make more money than you can imagine.

I started trading futures in the ES and can speak from experience that there is huge opportunity here. Its just a matter of perspective really.

Hi Private Banker


Please could you give us his views on the ES.
Prefers CL? for some special reason.

Thank you very much!
Felix

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Felix trader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #59 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received






We have all 3 timeframes trending higher at the moment. None are trading within a bracketed area as we are at 5 year highs (unless your time frame is ~5 yrs). Market is likely to keep exploring higher until it gets to a price where sellers want to step in with authority.



Here we see vpoc migrating higher along with the higher price action. The trend remains up.

For those that are experienced with this style of trading, what other things should I be noticing when I do these weekend updates?

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #60 (permalink)
La Jolla, CA
 
Experience: Master
Platform: Sierra Chart, X_Trader Pro, OptionsCity
Broker: Advantage, Trading Technologies, OptionsCity, IQ Feed
Trading: CL, NG
 
Private Banker's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,040 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 1,713 given, 3,849 received


Felix trader View Post
Hi Private Banker


Please could you give us his views on the ES.
Prefers CL? for some special reason.

Thank you very much!
Felix

I don't want to hijack Profiler's thread so I'll keep this very brief. The ES is a very precise calculated market. Professionals like it for that and the fact that there is massive liquidity. If you want to trade 500 cars per trade with very little slippage if any, you can certainly do that. 1 point on 500 cars equates to $25,000 so you can see how that works out nicely. As I mentioned, the ES is a very precise market, it stops right on key levels typically which makes it fairly easy to load up the truck on a position. As I mentioned earlier, this market works extremely well with Market Profile and would encourage anyone looking to learn MP to maybe start with the ES as its a slower moving market than many others. It affords you the time to think about getting into a trade or identify if you're wrong.

I like CL because its a faster moving market with a wide range. Because of the wide range, less leverage is required to obtain the similar results as I mentioned with ES if not better. Choosing a market to trade is just a personal preference that needs to work with your personality, experience and trading method. CL also works incredibly well with MP.

Reply With Quote
The following 7 users say Thank You to Private Banker for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #61 (permalink)
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,977 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 823 given, 10,315 received

Some good stuff on here. I am writing this because I wanted to join the topic and say how I see it personally.

I think the key to profiling is that the underlying theory of a profile is that it helps you define extremes.

A great deal of the time the ES is in a range but longer term ranges that people tend not to comment on. Look at August to the start of November 2012 - depending on how you look at it, we had 3 overlapping ranges. When you profile longer term ranges like this, prices outside of the value area presents opportunity or bias. If you hit the top of the range, chances are you will work your way to the bottom over the next few days/weeks. I think this sort of situational awareness is handy for intraday trading.


For intraday - I don't personally trade off CLVNs within a range, I tend to trade more off common reference points that get hit over & over & over again. Globex high/low, overnight high/low ,market profile (not volume profile) levels.

Most days on the ES will play out one of the following ways:

1 - Tight range day
2 - Larger range day - putting in 2-4 decent sized swings but price ending up not really moving anywhere
3 - Moves one way

And of course, it can start one way and news can change it. The key with the ES is making a call quite early on how it's going to play out today. Having a few scenarios of how you think it could play out in terms of turning points is important but I think participation after the open is more important. You can have all the scenarios you want but if participation is low and it's just putting in little rotations back & forth, it changes the dynamics.

After watching a lot of days you get a feel whether you should play from the outside in, look for the larger swings or grit your teeth and jump on a one way move. Some days, you can tell in the first few minutes if it's going to be a really narrow day.

My own advice to anyone wanting to trade the ES, is to not take reversal trades on those days where it looks like we'll put in the 2-4 decent sized swings. You only need a few failed swings at the reversal before you end up in catch up mode for the rest of the day (or week). Much better to watch it go to a key intraday level, reverse, show participation and then take the first pullback. It's a smaller trade but it is a less crowded place to enter and much easier to read.

There is my official 2c

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 9 users say Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #62 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Trading: Emini Futures
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 49,780 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,306 given, 97,567 received

Tip


Guys, this is a journal thread. Let's keep all commentary out of the thread and not turn it into a methodology thread, as that would create a split topic.

The main discussion thread on ES is here:


The main discussion thread on profile/footprint is here:





Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #63 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

Economic data: factory orders

ON Profile: We have some selling in the ON session, apparently related to european issues. ONHI stands at the 1408.5 CHVN to the tick while the low as just gone through the pLO at 1500 and the 1499 CLVN and currently trading 1497.75. ON vpoc is at 1506.25. Hi looks strong, low looks poor. Profile shape is toothy indicating imbalance. Assuming we open right here at 1499, it will be an open out of range right at a key CLVN meaning spoos will have a choice to make regarding which balance area it will want to explore. 1499 up to 1501.5 CHVN and then other side of balance at 1507.5ish or down to 1497 CHVN then 1492 other side of balance? I think that buyers have to be given the benefit of the doubt that they will show up and will be anticipating responsive buying on the open. Question is what will happen after that.




Closing Swing: 1509.75-1506.25

Levels Above: 1501.5 CHVN, 1505.5 DBL Top, 1508.5 nvpoc/CHVN, 1510.75* CLVN

Levels Below: 1497 CHVN, 1493.75 nvpoc, 1492 CLVN, 1488.5 CLVN, 1486.75 CHVN

Hypo#1- Spoos open OAIR/OAOR and find responsive buying into pRange and holds, grinding higher through the day.

Hypo#2- Spoos open OAIR/OAOR and sellers lay into responsive buying and knock it into lower balance area targeting 1492 CLVN then 1486.75 CHVN.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #64 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

1. Long 1499 CLVN on 4.5 pt move pre-market. Scratched after 1.25 MA vs 0MF and 7 minutes due to poor looking low. Would have been winner after an hour...

2. Long 1499.75 mid on 2 pt pb with breadth -300 and tick -418. We have a poor-ish hi and lo in place. Looking for market to hold inside previous range. Stopped after 14 min and 1.25 MA.

3. Long 1497.5 IBLO after new lows made by 3 ticks and low looks good while profile is very balanced. So outside -in type trade. Breadth -330 and tick 0. Stopped after 10 min and .75 MF.

4. Long 1492 CLVN/thurs lo on 3.75 pt move with breadth -413 and tick -600. Scaled after 4 min and 0 MA. Second scale given.





Recap
Spoos opened OOR and went into prior days range by 1.75 pts then fell back out and had a perfectly balanced profile for first hour or so and then the bottom fell out a bit. Breadth was solidly negative all day. Value area decidedly lower along with vpoc and price. Price did manage to close back inside value thanks to a last minute drive higher indicating sellers still aren't that confident and perhaps were closing out their shorts into the close instead of letting them ride. Volume was decent at 1.41 mill and lately their has been an uptick in that regard so interest is picking up.

I'm not happy with my trading again. I pussed out on a few trades, I scratched a trade that would have been a winner and I had 4 buys and zero sells on a day that basically trended lower all day. That IBLO trade was so stupid. It only printed 2 ticks above it and for some reason I thought I should buy it. Didn't give myself a good chance there.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #65 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

Economic data: ISM

Overnight Profile: Spoos explored the upper half of yesterdays profile trading up to yesterdays hi to the tick at 1501.75 where responsive sellers have stepped in causing a vpoc shift up to 1500.75. The stands at 1492.25 which corresponds to yesteradys VAL and also where a sharp bounce occurred on the first touch of it yesterday. Profile is very toothy indicating a disagreement over value and we are now trading back at 1499 where we opened yesterday and also a CLVN.

Given this info we are likely headed for an OAIR above or near VAH and an open right at a CLVN with the balance area above centered at 1501.5/1503.5 and below at 1496.25. I would think responsive sellers would step in on the open taking it back inside yesterdays VA. And from there it depends. Yesterdays profile had a distinct LVN at 1496. I will be looking for rejection there as a sign the market prefers to explore the upper balance area above. Stepping back a time frame, on the daily charts we now have a bit of a bracket between 1490 and 1510 and we will be opening right in the middle of that. Longer time frames are still decidedly bullish.



Closing Swing: 1494.25-1490.25

Levels Above: 1501.75 CHVN/ DBL Top, 1507.25 LVN from 2-1, 1508.5 CHVN/nvpoc, 1510.75 CLVN

Levels Below: 1496 LVN/CHVN, 1494.25 nvpoc, 1488.5 CLVN, 1486.75 CHVN*, 1482.75 CLVN

Hypo#1: Spoos open OAIR above value, responsive sellers push to 1496 LVN where buyers are waiting to auction higher through the day.

Hypo#2: Spoos open OAIR push higher and fail like yesterday then auction lower to 1494.25 nvpoc and below.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #66 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

1. Sold 1502.25 on a 2.75 pt move in a go, no-go type trade above ONHI due to OAIR above value. Breadth +400 and tick +518. Stopped after 1 min and .5 MF.

2. Long 1505 IBHI on 1.25 pt pb. Breadth +400 and tick -200 on a strongly trending higher up day. What I don't like about this set-up is that vpoc is 1.5 pts below where my stop is in addition to the small rotation. Scratched after 22 min and 1.25 MF vs .25 MA. Looking to get long lower as high above looks poor-ish. Would have been loser (after ~ hours).

3. Sold 1408.5 nvpoc on 5 pt move. Breadth +390 and tick +396. Quality of rotation is not good as it moved up 4.75 then churned for 30 mins before filling me. Stopped after 40 min and .25 MF. Unreal. Took 8 tick loser since I leaned on a 6000 lot offer in the book for a manual stop and someone took it and caused 4 tick spike.

4. Long 1406.5 LVN on 4.25 pt move down. Breadth +382 and tick -400. Scratched in the extra session at 330.




Recap

Spoos opened OAIR above value and trended higher all day until the end. It wasn't an open drive higher but both breadth and tick were solidly higher at the open and through the remainder of the day. Perhaps it wasn't a good day to try my go no-go trade above the ONHI. Value was established significantly higher along with vpoc and price compared to prior day. Interestingly the 24 hr session basically traversed the entire balance area of the last few weeks from 1492 low to new 5 year highs at 1511. Volume was good again at 1.45 million. I did not see that slide into the close coming. They forced price back to the mid basically, so inside value, near vpoc. Similar to yesterdays move at the close, this time buyers didnt want to hold.

My trading was horrible. I now have 1 winning day in the last 12 trading days. I am obviously doing something wrong. That nvpoc trade was stupid in hindsight. I didn't not want to take it because it was a 5 handle move at that point and I didn't want to let a 5 handle move into one of my levels go by without a trade. But I should have because it consolidated for almost 40 minutes between 1507.25 and 1508.25 before I got my 8.5 fill. So any excess energy had been burned off. So not only did I lose on the trade but it also prevented me from getting short at 1510.75 CLVN which ended up being 1 tick off the high... Otherwise, I think I learned I will have to pay very close attention to the vwap on trendy days as today the vwap pullbacks were the best buys. Tomorrow is another day. Can it be a winner for once???

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Profiler for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #67 (permalink)
Mercer Island WA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninjatrader/Strategy Desk
Broker: Various
Trading: TF/NQ/ES/Stocks
 
djkiwi's Avatar
 
Posts: 561 since May 2010
Thanks: 981 given, 1,551 received


Profiler View Post
1. Sold 1502.25 on a 2.75 pt move in a go, no-go type trade above ONHI due to OAIR above value. Breadth +400 and tick +518. Stopped after 1 min and .5 MF.

2. Long 1505 IBHI on 1.25 pt pb. Breadth +400 and tick -200 on a strongly trending higher up day. What I don't like about this set-up is that vpoc is 1.5 pts below where my stop is in addition to the small rotation. Scratched after 22 min and 1.25 MF vs .25 MA. Looking to get long lower as high above looks poor-ish. Would have been loser (after ~ hours).

3. Sold 1408.5 nvpoc on 5 pt move. Breadth +390 and tick +396. Quality of rotation is not good as it moved up 4.75 then churned for 30 mins before filling me. Stopped after 40 min and .25 MF. Unreal. Took 8 tick loser since I leaned on a 6000 lot offer in the book for a manual stop and someone took it and caused 4 tick spike.

4. Long 1406.5 LVN on 4.25 pt move down. Breadth +382 and tick -400. Scratched in the extra session at 330.




Recap

Spoos opened OAIR above value and trended higher all day until the end. It wasn't an open drive higher but both breadth and tick were solidly higher at the open and through the remainder of the day. Perhaps it wasn't a good day to try my go no-go trade above the ONHI. Value was established significantly higher along with vpoc and price compared to prior day. Interestingly the 24 hr session basically traversed the entire balance area of the last few weeks from 1492 low to new 5 year highs at 1511. Volume was good again at 1.45 million. I did not see that slide into the close coming. They forced price back to the mid basically, so inside value, near vpoc. Similar to yesterdays move at the close, this time buyers didnt want to hold.

My trading was horrible. I now have 1 winning day in the last 12 trading days. I am obviously doing something wrong. That nvpoc trade was stupid in hindsight. I didn't not want to take it because it was a 5 handle move at that point and I didn't want to let a 5 handle move into one of my levels go by without a trade. But I should have because it consolidated for almost 40 minutes between 1507.25 and 1508.25 before I got my 8.5 fill. So any excess energy had been burned off. So not only did I lose on the trade but it also prevented me from getting short at 1510.75 CLVN which ended up being 1 tick off the high... Otherwise, I think I learned I will have to pay very close attention to the vwap on trendy days as today the vwap pullbacks were the best buys. Tomorrow is another day. Can it be a winner for once???

@Profiler

Keep at it. At least your losses are small and you are controlling your risk until you gain an edge. That's a big plus. What does stand out is on a number of your trades the price action is opposite to your trade. For example you will take a short when there are HH and HL in place or there is a strong uptrend. As a general rule it's better to go with price action than against irrespective of the importance of the level.

Cheers
DJ

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to djkiwi for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #68 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

thanks @djkiwi-
yep, just keep my losses small and stay in the game until i figure it out is the plan. i know last time around it took me 6 months before i became profitable but that was doing like 30-50 trades a day, so around 5000 trades. hopefully i can shorten that up a bit because at my average of 4 trades a day now that means i wont be profitable until 2017!

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #69 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,054 given, 14,504 received


Profiler View Post
1. Sold 1502.25 on a 2.75 pt move in a go, no-go type trade above ONHI due to OAIR above value. Breadth +400 and tick +518. Stopped after 1 min and .5 MF.

Market opens near yesterday's high, up 7 handles from Monday's close. It opens above prior major resistance of 98-99 (see your profile for the last few weeks), after trading up through the 92-98 balance overnight. IMO the default bias here is, get long, or stay flat. I see no reason at all for a short at the open, even less so after the push above Monday's high. The fact that the market opened in range, and then pushes up out of that range without even an excursion into the value area for the previous day, is a sign to look to buy--this is not bearish in the least. This is initiative buying at its best. If you look at volume, you will see very heavy volume moving the market out of yesterday's range; stepping in front of that is suicide.


Profiler View Post
3. Sold 1408.5 nvpoc on 5 pt move. Breadth +390 and tick +396. Quality of rotation is not good as it moved up 4.75 then churned for 30 mins before filling me. Stopped after 40 min and .25 MF. Unreal. Took 8 tick loser since I leaned on a 6000 lot offer in the book for a manual stop and someone took it and caused 4 tick spike.

Almost always will a 6000 lot offer get taken or get out of the way. Don't let this fool you into thinking that this is even a seller with a directional bias; maybe someone just bought a bunch of SPY for a fund and is hedging, and is actually wanting it to go up.


Profiler View Post
4. Long 1406.5 LVN on 4.25 pt move down. Breadth +382 and tick -400. Scratched in the extra session at 330.

Tempting, but at 8 mins to close, you are likely to have lots of longs from earlier closing out. If there is a fire in the theater, everyone runs for the exits. When 3:55 ET or so rolls around, people begin to run for the exits, and crazy shit happens. When the market has just rejected a prior day high by 4+ handles, it's just a gamble that you will get a bounce. It's not so much a trade, as it is hoping that you can finish your day with a little less of a loss. But for this situation, it's really better to just call it a day. You're lucky it didn't keep selling off and you were able to scratch. Look at cumulative delta and look how much selling pressure is coming in from the high until your trade... not a high probability play that you will get much of any response there.


Profiler View Post
My trading was horrible. I now have 1 winning day in the last 12 trading days. I am obviously doing something wrong.
...
Tomorrow is another day. Can it be a winner for once???

As djkiwi said, you are keeping your losses small. This is important. It allows learning. I have thrown a crapload of money away in 10 minutes because I got too big. You can't learn like that, you only get blown out. At least you are bleeding small.

I think if you look at your maximum open profit per trade you will see one major reason for your losses. On 3 of 4 trades, not once did the market even move in your favor more than 2 ticks. This means very simply that you are swimming upstream. The fact that you have a "level" does not mean anything. It must be considered in context. And even in context, there is nothing wrong with waiting for the market to prove to you that it is going to work for you, not against you. For the 2 shorts, if you had simply waited for the market to move in your favor 4 ticks, you would not have taken the trade. If the market can't even move 3-4 ticks in your direction, then what confidence should you have in the trade? So, wait and let others work for you first; if they prove to you that they are willing to put their money on the line to move the market a particular direction, then join them.

If you had recognized the real nature of the day, you would have only looked to buy, and those trades would be a moot point. If you are aligned with the context of the market, you can do a blind buy or sell, but only if your analysis is correct; if you are looking short when the market is clearly long, then it does not matter how significant a level is.

I am saying all this from one trader who has struggled, and continues to struggle in many ways, to another. I can only say this with conviction because I have lost money and lost my patience time and time and time again; I have been on the other side of trend days MANY times, and it sucks. I have stepped in front of the train and still want to do so sometimes. But it is not a high probability trade, and professional traders, who I am trying to emulate, take high probability trades.

Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to josh for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #70 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

Economic data: crude

ON Profile: Spoos spent the majority of time and volume last night trading above yesterdays settlement/vwap at 1505.75 and exploring upwards but stopping 3 ticks shorts of pHi. ON vpoc stands at 1507.75. However, something caused spoos to break around 6am and we are now trading right at the lower LVN of yesterdays profile at 1501.25. So we went from one side of balance to the other in the ON session and I am expecting a return to balance now.

I am anticipating an OAIR open, not sure if it will be inside value or outside. With little economic news I think we have a rotational day on tap. If we open around 1501 we will basically have an open in the middle of our MC with the most fair price below at 1497 potentially acting as a magnet. Longer time frames all point up.



Closing Swing: 1510.75-1505.5

Levels Above: 1501.75 LVN, 1503 CHVN, 1505 nvpoc, 1507 LVN, 1508.5 CHVN, 1511.5 CLVN

Levels Below: 1497 CHVN/MC vpoc, 1496 LVN*, 1494.25 nvpoc, 1491.75 LVN, 1488.5 CLVN, 1486.75 CHVN

Hypo#1: Spoos open OAIR below value and first push is lower to 97-96 area where responsive buyers step in and auction higher through the day.

Hypo#2: Spoos open OAIR below value and push higher to 05 nvpoc but find rejection there and sellers auction lower to 97 CHVN and possibly lower.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #71 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

@josh

many thanks for the constructive criticism. keep it coming!

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #72 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

1. Sold 1405.75 ON LVN on 3.5 pt move with tick +600 and breadth -60. Scratched after 8 mins with 1.0 MF vs .25 MA after it went 4 ticks in my favor twice and came back to entry twice and overall context of day is bullish. Would have been loser.

2. Long 1505.25 IBHi/LVN on 3.5 pt pb. Breadth -50 and tick -400. Instantly 3 ticks against me. Been waiting for a spot to get long all day after not taking the mids. Nice high in place above at key level 1508.5 CHVN. Vwap 2 ticks below and mid 3 ticks so potential nice support there. Stopped after 5 min and 0 MF.

3. Sold 1504.5 mid/vwap on 2.5 pt move with tick +600 and breadth -11. Vpoc sitting below at 1503 so possible nice magnet. IBHI/LVN above at 1505.25. Stopped after 38 min and 1.5 MF but no fill on my exit.




Recap

Spoos opened OAIR, very tightly wound with only a 1 pt OS and broke higher after a rejection from 1500 on the nuts. Market pushed higher and then sold off sharply after tagging the 1408.5 CHVN. Responsive buyers stepped in though at 1.75 LVN to auction it higher into the close. Overall it was an inside day with neither ONHI or ONLO nor pHI or pLo taken out. Value also established inside and vpoc just a 1.25 pts above yesterday. Price basically unch and volume just a shade lighter than yesterday but still decent at 1.34 mill. Looks like we have a potential breakout in the works with this coiling action. An MC of the last 4 days has 1506 as vpoc so a rejection from there could be used as a launch point.

My trading results are honestly getting statistically out of hand. 1 winning day in last 13 days... At some point I will start figuring out what I am doing wrong.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #73 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

Economic Data: claims, productivity, ECB speech

ON Profile: We have a balanced profile in the ON session with an upward bias that features vpoc right at yesterdays hi to the tick and the hi at tuesday's RTH hi to the tick. I can't really come up with a reason as to why 1504 is the low. So inventory is leaning long and my initial guess is that combined with yesterdays inside day with regards to range and value area, this increases the probability of an upside breakout but who knows?

Over the last 4 days we have rotated between 1511 and 1490 with the majority of the trade taking place between 1509 and 1501 and vpoc 1506. Best trade locations have been sales near 1510 and buys near 1499-1500 with chop in the middle. Claims could change this a bit but for now I am expecting an OAIR, inside value and potentially a vpoc shift down to 1407.



Closing Swing: 1507.5-1505.5

Levels Above: 1511.5 CLVN*, 1514 CHVN/nvpoc, 1519.5 contract all time hi

Levels Below: 1506 mc vpoc, 1502.75 CHVN, 1499 CLVN*, 1496.25 CHVN/LVN**, 1494.25 nvpoc, 1488.5 CLVN

Hypo#1- Spoos open OAIR, inside value and chop before breaking higher and continuing higher thru 1511 balance area hi to 1514 CHVN and possibly beyond.

Hypo#2- Spoos open OAIR and rotate higher but find rejection then seek out lower targeting 1499 CLVN where it finds rejection and we end up with a rotational day like yesterday.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #74 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

1. Long 1506 on 3.5 pt pb because of nice rotation into 1506.25 nvpoc and expected upside bias. Breadth -100 and tick -200. Scaled after 4 mins and .25 MA. No second scale.

2. Long 1501.75 LVN on 5.25 pt move. Breadth -244 and tick -600. Stopped after 8 min and 1.25 MF.

3. Long 1499 CLVN on 4 pt move. Breath -300 and tick -400. Definitely some active sellers involved here. Scratched after 2 min and 1.25 MA looking to get long lower. Would have been loser. Wait, that is not a good idea. Market getting wacked on good volume. Look for sales.

4. Sold 1499 CLVN on 4 pt move up with breadth -326 and tick 0. Scaled after 9 min and .25 MA. Second scale given.

5. Long 1502 mid on 2.75 pt mid. Breadth -190 and tick -300. Stopped after 4 min and .25 MA at the very low of the move when only 38 contracts printed at my exit.




Recap

Man, what a day. I did not see this sell off coming at all, I was prepared for a breakout to the upside. A seemingly innocuous OAIR turned into a rout shortly thereafter. Spoos popped above previous day hi and then returned back in range. Some mild selling ensued but as soon as spoos broke 1505 level the selling just got vicious and it seemed weird, as if only one fund just decided to unload some inventory and when it was over, buyers returned. At the end of the day spoos ended up basically unch and we are left with a daily candle that has an extremely long wick on the bottom. What does this mean? Bulls still run the show in my book and this just confirms active buying interest in low 1490s.

Value area was established lower. Vpoc shifted 8 pts lower. Price incrementally lower. All of this occurred on the heaviest volume day of the year since the first day of the year at 1.63 mil.

I think I made some good trades today but more bad than good. I am lucky to have finished with a flat pnl since I scratched a would-be loser. Had I expected this downside perhaps I could have found a short opportunity early but looking back I dont know what I could have done. So I took some longs because of my bias and the extent of the rotations. My mid trade was both unlucky but also unwise. In looking over the log of my mid trades all of them at are winners came on rotations over 3 pts while all the losers are less than 3. Todays was 2.75 and I was stopped to the tick. Also of note, today the vwap provided just enough resistance to get a scale off when the market came back to it the first time around lunch. When spoos broke through mid into the thin part of profile they went right to the top of the low volume area and turned back quickly. So keep that in mind for future reference.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Profiler for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #75 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,054 given, 14,504 received


Profiler View Post
Value area was established lower. Vpoc shifted 8 pts lower. Price incrementally lower. All of this occurred on the heaviest volume day of the year since the first day of the year at 1.63 mil.

At the end of the day, ES settled 1.5 handles lower than Wednesday. Not exactly progress, if you ask me, for shorts. This was it, this was the selling strength they had been looking for, and then ... they give it all back. Mind you, it was very impressive but delta basically unchanged, price basically unchanged. So, tomorrow should be interesting. I say this because if you look at today's profile, there is no real clear establishment of value IMO. There's no clear balance that can be called fair. The market may have traded the most at 98, but the shape of the day is basically a big "V" -- when a profile is as ugly as this one, I throw away the VPOC and value area, it just doesn't mean that much to me, as it's one long thin search for value, and given that the market basically closed where it opened, it seems the search for value came right back to where it left off. The 95 VPOC area of the 92-98 balance held and provided plenty of buyers to get the ball rolling back the other way, back up.

Good job scratching today, perhaps it will give you a momentum push in the right direction! Best to you tomorrow.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to josh for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #76 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

Economic Data: trade balance, wholesale inventories

ON Profile: After yesterdays wild ride we have a quiet, small range, balanced profile from the night session. Yesterdays VAH seemed to offer support on the downside as it was only penetrated by 1 tick while the LVN at 1508.5 provided resistance. Vpoc sitting at 1505.25 which has been a popular place for vpocs in the last few days.

I am expecting an OAIR, above value, with an initial push lower by responsive sellers to start the day. I think we end up with a rotational day around 1506 mc vpoc so with the overall uptrend still intact, will look to get long after that sell off. And unless internals and volume are exceedingly positive, will look to fade the upper end of balance around 1511.



Closing Swing:1506-1502

Levels Above: 1511.5 CLVN, 1514 CHVN/nvpoc, 1519.5 contract hi

Levels Below: 1502.75 CHVN, 1501 LVN?, 1498.75 CLVN/1498 nvpoc*, 1494.25 nvpoc/yLo, 1492 CLVN

Hypo#1: Spoos open OAIR above value, rotate lower first to pick up buyers then grind higher rest of day.

Hypo#2: Spoos open OAIR above value, push higher and fail near 1511 and then move lower rest of day.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #77 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

1. Sold 1409 after printing weakly pHi. Breadth 177 and tick +200. Negative factor is the open is also the low print so could be OD. Stopped after 5 min and .25 MA. I faded an open drive.





Recap

Spoos opened OAIR above value-or so it seemed. The open print was the low of the day which should have been my first clue not to fade it and instead go with. A 1.25 pt sell off after tagging yesterdays hi was the best sellers could do at which point bulls just took control and the open morphed into an OD type situation. I puked my fade and then tried getting long on both subsequent pullbacks to vwap but no fill. I need to be more aggressive about front running those after such strong conviction opens. Volume was 50% higher than normal. But then the day was over. Buyers held their ground but so did sellers. We are left with a very distinct p-shaped profile. Vpoc shifted to 5 year hi's. VA shifted higher but also incredibly tight at 1.5 pts wide only. Price closed at 5 year hi's. Volume was the lowest it has been in 2 weeks.

My trading sucked. The fade was stupid. I thought responsive sellers would step in but they didnt. I missed the open print clue and then saw volume very heavy and an inability to trade below my entry and knew I was toast. Breadth was solid but not extremely positive. Then I just was too passive in getting long on the pullbacks. Need to frontrun vwap by a tick on days like today.

So my winless streak continues. 1 in the last 15. Unreal. I'm getting married tomorrow though so my weekend will be good!

Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 4 users say Thank You to Profiler for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #78 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,054 given, 14,504 received


Profiler View Post
I'm getting married tomorrow though so my weekend will be good!

Congratulations! Please go enjoy your wife, and just take a week off or something at least from trading. Maybe a woman's love is just what you need to get you back on track (joking but in all seriousness, enjoy the wedding and festivities!)

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to josh for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #79 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Trading: Emini Futures
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 49,780 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,306 given, 97,567 received

Congratulations on tieing the knot

Have fun!

Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #80 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

Economic Data: none

ON Profile: We've got a 5 pt range with low volume and a blocky looking profile. Very little movement going on as only 7 rotations occurred. Initiative buying with new 5 year highs made and vpoc sitting above pHi. Low coincides with pVAL.

I didn't have time to post weekend charts but its pretty obvious we are still trending up on all time frames. We are headed for a possible gap up OAOR. One can't help but wonder if it makes sense to fade a monday morning pop to new 5 year hi's and buy it back later in the day? The only level I have above is all time contract hi at 1519.5 but how important is it considering the cash hi is still 50+ points higher? Very prominent LVN/CLVN below at 1511 which is also the MC balance area hi so looking for some sort of bounce on first touch there




Closing Swing: 1513.75-1511

Levels Above: 1519.5 all time hi

Levels Below: 1513.25 nvpoc, 1511 CLVN/ BA Hi**, 1505 mc vpoc, 1502.75 CHVN, 1498.75 CLVN*

Hypo#1- Spoos open OAIR, sell off to 1511 (possibly down flagpole to1509) then grind higher rest of the day.

Hypo#2- Spoos open OAIR and catch a bid to start the day and run to 1519.5 where responsive sellers are waiting and sell it off rest of the day.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #81 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

No trades done today.



Recap
Spoos opened OAIR inside value and sellers made first move towards 1511 CLVN. Buyers showed up there and despite giving a bit they held their ground. Unfortunately they didn't have much juice as the HOD is the exact same as friday. Extremely boring day with a very small range of only 5.25 pts and low volume. Value was basically unch. Vpoc is a tick higher. Price basically unch. Zooming out, we have a doji formed on the daily candle. They are signs of indecision and can signal trend changes and we have definitely been trending higher so something to keep in mind. Compiling the last 7 trading days into a composite shows us now that 1513.25 is now mc vpoc, up from 1505 before the market opened today. So these prices definitely haven't gotten too expensive yet as acceptance keeps getting dragged higher.

Did anyone make any trades today (not out of boredom)? If so, what did you do and why?

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #82 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,054 given, 14,504 received


Profiler View Post
Did anyone make any trades today (not out of boredom)? If so, what did you do and why?

Yes, bought 11 and 11.25 after the open, for reasons obvious from Friday. Scaled 12.50 and scratched at 11.

Bought 11 again at midday. 10.75 was low of A and C periods, with 09.75 to 10.75 representing excess and demand below the VAL. Got flat 13.25, on new TICK HOD, volume surge, and upper distribution VPOC at 13.50.

I made some real time comments on 2nd trade on the ES SP500 Spoo-nalysis thread.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to josh for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #83 (permalink)
Michigan, Jackson
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT and TS
Broker: NT Continuum
Trading: ES, CL
 
Posts: 857 since Jul 2009
Thanks: 389 given, 551 received

Took two trades today.

Small range but good opportunity.

First Trade:

Looked for the -1 standard deviation bands to be touched. Non-trending days, the 1 SD bands work well.
Then, CUM delta change. Especially from below zero on the 5 minute chart.

Not shown in my pix is additional ZB (30 yr bond) confirmation.

Second trade:

15:10 this afternoon. ES traded back down to the -1 SD band. Also, at the low of its overnight session.

I jumped into the trade on a 3 minute chart at 1512. I am impatient and sometimes pay the price for it.

The trade turned out well once the buy programs took over.

The ZB had touched its +1.5 band on negative delta and began to tank.

COTtrader

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ES_trade01.png
Views:	75
Size:	81.9 KB
ID:	102372   Click image for larger version

Name:	ES_trade02.png
Views:	65
Size:	72.9 KB
ID:	102373  
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to COTtrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #84 (permalink)
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,977 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 823 given, 10,315 received


josh View Post
Yes, bought 11 and 11.25 after the open, for reasons obvious from Friday. Scaled 12.50 and scratched at 11.

Bought 11 again at midday. 10.75 was low of A and C periods, with 09.75 to 10.75 representing excess and demand below the VAL. Got flat 13.25, on new TICK HOD, volume surge, and upper distribution VPOC at 13.50.

I made some real time comments on 2nd trade on the ES SP500 Spoo-nalysis thread.

Got a bit of deja bu off that 11's trade!

Shame it didn't stick really - I was hoping for high teens off that...

I gave up just before lunch time. I don't like it when it gets so thick.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Jigsaw Trading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #85 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received


josh View Post
Bought 11 again at midday. 10.75 was low of A and C periods, with 09.75 to 10.75 representing excess and demand below the VAL. Got flat 13.25, on new TICK HOD, volume surge, and upper distribution VPOC at 13.50.

I made some real time comments on 2nd trade on the ES SP500 Spoo-nalysis thread.

@josh- see i dont get that. 10.75 was low of A,B and C periods, why would you get long a tick ahead of it on 4th test? why wouldnt you think this time it could break? this is a mental issue i have in my head i need to get over i think.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #86 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

economic data: none

ON Profile: We had a touch of downside exploration overnight, perhaps due to north korea's nuke test. Spoos sold off to 1408.5 low which was roughly the launch point of friday's break higher. But buyers were found and we are currently trading at the 1514.5 hi. ON vpoc sits at 1512.75 so roughly in line with last 2 days.

I'm thinking today could have a significant move. We have been building some serious energy in a narrow range around 1513 last 2 days. A break lower overnight found buyers, now they have the chance to run with it. All time frames are trending higher. I am anticipating an OAIR or even possibly another OD higher. Thinking today could be a short term blow off top with a major reversal. Probably getting too far ahead of myself and not going to make trades based on it but want to keep my mind open to it.



Closing Swing: 1515-1513

Levels Above: 1515 dbl top, 1517 ONHI 2-11, 1519.5 contract hi

Levels Below: 1513.25 mc vpoc, 1510.75 CLVN*, 1508 2-8 lo, 1505 CHVN, 1502.75 CHVN, 1498.75 CLVN*

Hypo#1- Spoos open OAIR above value, sell off to 1513.25 mc vpoc or 1510.75 CLVN then driver higher through the day and close at all time hi's.

Hypo#2- Spoos open OD and trend higher through the day.

Hypo#3- Spoos open OAOR/IR above value and find responsive sellers to sell it through the day to 1505 prior mc vpoc.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #87 (permalink)
Michigan, Jackson
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT and TS
Broker: NT Continuum
Trading: ES, CL
 
Posts: 857 since Jul 2009
Thanks: 389 given, 551 received

IF we break the yesterday's high ....

Resistances of WR1 and MR1 are both at 1521.75

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #88 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received


COTtrader View Post
IF we break the yesterday's high ....

Resistances of WR1 and MR1 are both at 1521.75

Is that weekly and monthly resistance? How are those calculated?

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #89 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,054 given, 14,504 received


Profiler View Post
@josh- see i dont get that. 10.75 was low of A,B and C periods, why would you get long a tick ahead of it on 4th test? why wouldnt you think this time it could break? this is a mental issue i have in my head i need to get over i think.

Here's a mental checklist that guided that decision. I don't think it's a mental issue for you, I think it's understanding the context and managing expectations based on that.

1) Friday's trade established 11s as unfairly low prices.
2) Early trade on Monday confirmed that.
3) The B period dip below 10.75 served to run stops, and to confirm lack of supply below 10.75, as evidenced by the minor retest of 10.75 on C period. Thus, the real demand is at 11s, and below 11s is really excess.
4) I want to be long this market in general, period. So, where do I want to do this?
5) See the profile as it looked at the time. Where do the unfair prices begin on the low side? Is this a balanced market? Yes--a lazy attempt at a selloff failed early, and a lazy attempt a new highs failed later. So why would I expect something different this time? And why would I expect a downside breakout in a market which is clearly biased long, on a day with low relative volume and range, and has shown no ability to even really auction below established value?
6) Look at the VWAP at the time. Is that indicative of a market which is looking to breakout in either direction?

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #90 (permalink)
Michigan, Jackson
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT and TS
Broker: NT Continuum
Trading: ES, CL
 
Posts: 857 since Jul 2009
Thanks: 389 given, 551 received

I am using anapivots daily, weekly and monthly (version 40).




Profiler View Post
Is that weekly and monthly resistance? How are those calculated?


Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #91 (permalink)
Michigan, Jackson
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT and TS
Broker: NT Continuum
Trading: ES, CL
 
Posts: 857 since Jul 2009
Thanks: 389 given, 551 received

Couldn't agree more.



josh View Post
Here's a mental checklist that guided that decision. I don't think it's a mental issue for you, I think it's understanding the context and managing expectations based on that.

1) Friday's trade established 11s as unfairly low prices.
2) Early trade on Monday confirmed that.
3) The B period dip below 10.75 served to run stops, and to confirm lack of supply below 10.75, as evidenced by the minor retest of 10.75 on C period. Thus, the real demand is at 11s, and below 11s is really excess.
4) I want to be long this market in general, period. So, where do I want to do this?
5) See the profile as it looked at the time. Where do the unfair prices begin on the low side? Is this a balanced market? Yes--a lazy attempt at a selloff failed early, and a lazy attempt a new highs failed later. So why would I expect something different this time? And why would I expect a downside breakout in a market which is clearly biased long, on a day with low relative volume and range, and has shown no ability to even really auction below established value?
6) Look at the VWAP at the time. Is that indicative of a market which is looking to breakout in either direction?


Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to COTtrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #92 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,054 given, 14,504 received


Profiler View Post
why wouldnt you think this time it could break?

So today we open in range, at the upper VPOC. Test of highs finds no buyers to auction higher, so we have auctioned lower. Maybe we won't get there, but my expectation is an auction to 11, and I am just crazy enough to plan to buy it again. It worked on Friday, and all day yesterday, so why would I expect different today with similar market conditions? Even if it does not work, I have no objective reason to expect something different, so I will observe, and I will buy it almost guaranteed. If I get run over, then it is valuable information and then I will adapt to the new conditions.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to josh for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #93 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

what do you make of this context now? breaking out to new RTH highs on poor volume and breadth after a very rotational start to the day. I'm looking at selling the ONH from yesterday at 1517, is it reasonable to assume I can expect a reaction there? or should i be focusing on finding a long due to all time frame up trend?

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #94 (permalink)
Michigan, Jackson
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT and TS
Broker: NT Continuum
Trading: ES, CL
 
Posts: 857 since Jul 2009
Thanks: 389 given, 551 received

Should we break above 17 I see an extension to the 21 where Weekly and monthly resistances are found together.

Wait to sell around the 20's is what my plan is or to look for a buy off the ON low @ 08.


Profiler View Post
what do you make of this context now? breaking out to new RTH highs on poor volume and breadth after a very rotational start to the day. I'm looking at selling the ONH from yesterday at 1517, is it reasonable to assume I can expect a reaction there? or should i be focusing on finding a long due to all time frame up trend?


Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to COTtrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #95 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,054 given, 14,504 received


Profiler View Post
what do you make of this context now? breaking out to new RTH highs on poor volume and breadth after a very rotational start to the day. I'm looking at selling the ONH from yesterday at 1517, is it reasonable to assume I can expect a reaction there? or should i be focusing on finding a long due to all time frame up trend?

Poor volume means nothing. It means that there are not many sellers standing in the way to retard the move, just as much as it means there is not much participation and initiative buying.

I bought 13.50 before the push to 16.25, but was out at 15. I failed to buy it again, which I absolutely should have and simply made a mistake in not following through with my idea.

I do not put much weight into non-RTH prices in general anymore. Is it reasonable to expect a rotation at 1517? I don't know, but I can tell you that I will not sell new 5 year highs But that does not mean you should not, if that is what you think will work.

What I see is a market that is up, has broken out, has retested the VPOC at 13s which held like a charm, and is trading above that. If it gets below that, I would maybe consider a sell. But I see a market that is searching for unfair highs, and has not yet proven to me that it has found them. I see TICK in the green for about 80% of the day so far, and only a few prints below 0 since 10am. So I see context bullish, and sentiment bullish. But this is just my read on things, and yours may be different.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to josh for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #96 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,054 given, 14,504 received

Profiler, the open at 13.75, the vpoc at 13.25, mid at 14, excess below 13.25 (A period), heavy volume with buyers stepping in here at this test of 13.75, has led me to buy at 14; should have been 13.50 as I mentioned earlier, but still a favorable risk profile here. Target is your ON 17 from a few days ago. SPX 1523 is resistance from 2007, corresponds roughly with ES 1518, so I will shoot for this area. Win or lose, it is, to me, the highest probability trade, so I take it.


Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to josh for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #97 (permalink)
Michigan, Jackson
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT and TS
Broker: NT Continuum
Trading: ES, CL
 
Posts: 857 since Jul 2009
Thanks: 389 given, 551 received

Nice setup Josh. I expect a test of the high or higher today.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to COTtrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #98 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

nice trade josh, almost a scale so far with no heat. but i dont get it. i see a trade initiated in the middle of balance, both today's and overall last 3 days. in my mind, the "only" thing working for you is the overall up trend on all time frames. what is your definition of excess? i look at the MP for today and don't really see that buying tail as excess, its only 1.25 pts after all. But maybe thats where im wrong, considering the overall range is only 4.25, maybe it is significant.

Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #99 (permalink)
Michigan, Jackson
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT and TS
Broker: NT Continuum
Trading: ES, CL
 
Posts: 857 since Jul 2009
Thanks: 389 given, 551 received

Delta needs to strengthen... I think, to push up from here.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	ES_5minDelta.png
Views:	54
Size:	79.9 KB
ID:	102460  
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to COTtrader for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #100 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,054 given, 14,504 received


Profiler View Post
nice trade josh, almost a scale so far with no heat. but i dont get it. i see a trade initiated in the middle of balance, both today's and overall last 3 days. in my mind, the "only" thing working for you is the overall up trend on all time frames. what is your definition of excess? i look at the MP for today and don't really see that buying tail as excess, its only 1.25 pts after all. But maybe thats where im wrong, considering the overall range is only 4.25, maybe it is significant.

BTW, closed flat at 15.50. Maybe closed early, but adapted and did what I thought was best at the time. Will definitely leave money on the table this way sometimes, but did not get full position on at 14, so better to be flat for me.



We have a market which clearly wants to go up. But volume is 13% below a normal value, and range is 38% below normal. The profile is quite balanced, despite the bullish tendency. With only a 4.25 range, the VAL is 13.75 while the VPOC is 14.50, only 3 ticks away.. So, the buy at 14 was actually very close to the unfair lows below 13.75, despite the fair price being 14.50, with such a small range. The 4 tick excess in A period accounts for over 20% of the day's range... so, it's not an ideal excess, but it is still excess nonetheless, in my book anyway.

For the day, 14.50 may be the fair price, but consider the context--the market broke below the most fair price for the last 2 days early on. It could not hold, and traded to new highs as it broke out of balance. As of yet, it has not managed to trade below that 2-day fair price. So buyers are willing to pay above fair value, today. So yes, it's a trade initiated in the middle of balance, but the fact that we have broken above that balance, and are unable to trade below that, makes a long an attractive trade for me at that location.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to josh for this post:


futures io Trading Community Trading Journals > Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling


Last Updated on September 20, 2014


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing
 

Battlestations! Show us your trading desk - $1,500 in prizes!

March
 

Importance of Finding Your Own Way w/Adam Grimes

Elite only
 

Journal Challenge w/Jigsaw

April
     



Copyright © 2021 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts