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Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling
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Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling

  #81 (permalink)
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2-11 trades and recap

No trades done today.

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Recap
Spoos opened OAIR inside value and sellers made first move towards 1511 CLVN. Buyers showed up there and despite giving a bit they held their ground. Unfortunately they didn't have much juice as the HOD is the exact same as friday. Extremely boring day with a very small range of only 5.25 pts and low volume. Value was basically unch. Vpoc is a tick higher. Price basically unch. Zooming out, we have a doji formed on the daily candle. They are signs of indecision and can signal trend changes and we have definitely been trending higher so something to keep in mind. Compiling the last 7 trading days into a composite shows us now that 1513.25 is now mc vpoc, up from 1505 before the market opened today. So these prices definitely haven't gotten too expensive yet as acceptance keeps getting dragged higher.

Did anyone make any trades today (not out of boredom)? If so, what did you do and why?

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  #82 (permalink)
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Profiler View Post
Did anyone make any trades today (not out of boredom)? If so, what did you do and why?

Yes, bought 11 and 11.25 after the open, for reasons obvious from Friday. Scaled 12.50 and scratched at 11.

Bought 11 again at midday. 10.75 was low of A and C periods, with 09.75 to 10.75 representing excess and demand below the VAL. Got flat 13.25, on new TICK HOD, volume surge, and upper distribution VPOC at 13.50.

I made some real time comments on 2nd trade on the ES SP500 Spoo-nalysis thread.

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  #83 (permalink)
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Took two trades today.

Small range but good opportunity.

First Trade:

Looked for the -1 standard deviation bands to be touched. Non-trending days, the 1 SD bands work well.
Then, CUM delta change. Especially from below zero on the 5 minute chart.

Not shown in my pix is additional ZB (30 yr bond) confirmation.

Second trade:

15:10 this afternoon. ES traded back down to the -1 SD band. Also, at the low of its overnight session.

I jumped into the trade on a 3 minute chart at 1512. I am impatient and sometimes pay the price for it.

The trade turned out well once the buy programs took over.

The ZB had touched its +1.5 band on negative delta and began to tank.

COTtrader

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Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling-es_trade01.png   Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling-es_trade02.png  
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  #84 (permalink)
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josh View Post
Yes, bought 11 and 11.25 after the open, for reasons obvious from Friday. Scaled 12.50 and scratched at 11.

Bought 11 again at midday. 10.75 was low of A and C periods, with 09.75 to 10.75 representing excess and demand below the VAL. Got flat 13.25, on new TICK HOD, volume surge, and upper distribution VPOC at 13.50.

I made some real time comments on 2nd trade on the ES SP500 Spoo-nalysis thread.

Got a bit of deja bu off that 11's trade!

Shame it didn't stick really - I was hoping for high teens off that...

I gave up just before lunch time. I don't like it when it gets so thick.

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  #85 (permalink)
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josh View Post
Bought 11 again at midday. 10.75 was low of A and C periods, with 09.75 to 10.75 representing excess and demand below the VAL. Got flat 13.25, on new TICK HOD, volume surge, and upper distribution VPOC at 13.50.

I made some real time comments on 2nd trade on the ES SP500 Spoo-nalysis thread.

@josh- see i dont get that. 10.75 was low of A,B and C periods, why would you get long a tick ahead of it on 4th test? why wouldnt you think this time it could break? this is a mental issue i have in my head i need to get over i think.

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  #86 (permalink)
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2-12 pre-market

economic data: none

ON Profile: We had a touch of downside exploration overnight, perhaps due to north korea's nuke test. Spoos sold off to 1408.5 low which was roughly the launch point of friday's break higher. But buyers were found and we are currently trading at the 1514.5 hi. ON vpoc sits at 1512.75 so roughly in line with last 2 days.

I'm thinking today could have a significant move. We have been building some serious energy in a narrow range around 1513 last 2 days. A break lower overnight found buyers, now they have the chance to run with it. All time frames are trending higher. I am anticipating an OAIR or even possibly another OD higher. Thinking today could be a short term blow off top with a major reversal. Probably getting too far ahead of myself and not going to make trades based on it but want to keep my mind open to it.

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Closing Swing: 1515-1513

Levels Above: 1515 dbl top, 1517 ONHI 2-11, 1519.5 contract hi

Levels Below: 1513.25 mc vpoc, 1510.75 CLVN*, 1508 2-8 lo, 1505 CHVN, 1502.75 CHVN, 1498.75 CLVN*

Hypo#1- Spoos open OAIR above value, sell off to 1513.25 mc vpoc or 1510.75 CLVN then driver higher through the day and close at all time hi's.

Hypo#2- Spoos open OD and trend higher through the day.

Hypo#3- Spoos open OAOR/IR above value and find responsive sellers to sell it through the day to 1505 prior mc vpoc.

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  #87 (permalink)
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IF we break the yesterday's high ....

Resistances of WR1 and MR1 are both at 1521.75

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  #88 (permalink)
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COTtrader View Post
IF we break the yesterday's high ....

Resistances of WR1 and MR1 are both at 1521.75

Is that weekly and monthly resistance? How are those calculated?

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  #89 (permalink)
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Profiler View Post
@josh- see i dont get that. 10.75 was low of A,B and C periods, why would you get long a tick ahead of it on 4th test? why wouldnt you think this time it could break? this is a mental issue i have in my head i need to get over i think.

Here's a mental checklist that guided that decision. I don't think it's a mental issue for you, I think it's understanding the context and managing expectations based on that.

1) Friday's trade established 11s as unfairly low prices.
2) Early trade on Monday confirmed that.
3) The B period dip below 10.75 served to run stops, and to confirm lack of supply below 10.75, as evidenced by the minor retest of 10.75 on C period. Thus, the real demand is at 11s, and below 11s is really excess.
4) I want to be long this market in general, period. So, where do I want to do this?
5) See the profile as it looked at the time. Where do the unfair prices begin on the low side? Is this a balanced market? Yes--a lazy attempt at a selloff failed early, and a lazy attempt a new highs failed later. So why would I expect something different this time? And why would I expect a downside breakout in a market which is clearly biased long, on a day with low relative volume and range, and has shown no ability to even really auction below established value?
6) Look at the VWAP at the time. Is that indicative of a market which is looking to breakout in either direction?

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  #90 (permalink)
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I am using anapivots daily, weekly and monthly (version 40).




Profiler View Post
Is that weekly and monthly resistance? How are those calculated?


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