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Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling


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Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling

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  #601 (permalink)
 Profiler 
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
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Economic data: housing

ON Profile: We have a 7.5 pt range on normal volume of 144k so far. The hi is just 1 tick above pHi and the low is 2 ticks below yesterdays vpoc. Vpoc currently at 1655.25 and profile shape is pretty balanced albeit with an LVN at yesterdays VAH.



Yesterdays ON lo was strongly rejected off the open with almost an open drive higher which makes me think we have an excess low in place and ES can now continue higher to test the break down levels og 1665 and 1669 to see if sellers are still active there. Its one of the last fridays of summer with little important data out and ES had a quiet night balancing in the upper half of yesterdays range which further makes me think the bulls have the edge today. As of right now, ES is set to open OAIR above value and perhaps that LVN in the overnight session, which is also roughly confluent with vpoc, will be an attractive long location for a move up to 1661 and then 1665 and potentially higher. Longer time frames are extremely bullish and short time frame is balancing/bearish.

Levels Above: 1657.75 pHi/ONHI*, 1659 CHVN*, 1661.5 Hi, 1665.25 breakdown level**, 1669.25 Hi/1670.25 CHVN***

Levels Below: 1654 ON LVN* (?), 1651 nvpoc/ONLO**, 1643.25 pLO/ mc VAL**, 1637.5 CHVN*

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR above value and sellers push weakly to 1654 or perhaps 1650.5 but are rejected and buyers grind higher thru the day. Potential big selling response at 1665.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and pushes up to ONHI but fails and auctions down to 1650 then balances the rest of the day.

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  #602 (permalink)
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1. Sold 1658.75 with kind of an open drive or OAOR open with responsive sellers active. I missed on the first push down which sucks and now this is second time above pHi so not cool. The low looks pretty poor. This is the mc VAH so I think that lends support to the short. First scale after 5 min and .5 MA. Second scale after 15 min. If I werent down money every day this week I would probably hold this trade trying for 1650 but I need a winner.

2. Bot 1659.25 (1 lot only) due to a long bias and this thing just unable to push lower than vpoc with successive higher lows in place. Walking out the door with OCO orders in place to just let this thing either work or not fully aware that I am buying at the VAH. Scaled after 22 min and .5 MA.




Recap
ES opened OAOR and put in a balanced rotational day with a spike into the close. Vpoc and value shifted higher. Price closed higher, jsut off the hi of day and above value. Volume was pretty pathetic at 1.08 mill. Profile shape was extremely well balanced until a late spike kind of distorted it but the MP profile looks beautiful. ES continuing to grind higher exploring the upper area of the current mc and it will be interesting to see if sellers show up next week at the key 1665/1669 levels and we get another leg down or if this sell off was just a 1 week thing.

I am happy to break the losing streak! First trade was solid, spot on reasoning *I think*. Im glad I took the mechanical 4 pt trade in this case because for sure I would have kept staring at the low and thinking it had to break and it never did. Second trade was pretty bogus but I did it with only a lot and I think I had context on my side. But obviously buying at the dVAH on up to that point a pretty perfectly balanced day with a poorish low is not the best of ideas. Overall this week sucked for me. I lost money but I end it on a positive note and if I have a good week next week can still salvage some beer money for the month. Have a good weekend all!

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  #603 (permalink)
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Econ- durable goods

ON Profile: We have a 8.75 pt range on very light volume of 98k so far...that is one of the most pathetic volumes I've seen so far. The hi is well above pHi and just above the 1665.25 afternoon hi from the breakdown day as well as the 1666.5 CLVN. The low is 2 ticks above fridays vpoc. Vpoc currently 1660.75 so inside fridays range. Profile is shaped very much like a b.



Ok so its the last week of summer and many big players are on vacation. Its also a holiday in London and eurex was shut down for awhile last night and we have tiny volume in the ES...what can we expect today (and this week)? I don't think much but lets hope for better. ES is expected to open OAIR above value and right around the mc VAH. As we push above value in our current mc I am more inclined to favor the short side. 1665 and 1669.25/1670.25 are two levels I am very keen to short. The first level was hit last night and provided good rotation but I will be careful about selling it on second touch. I will pretty much short the 1670 level regardless of what happens. As for downside levels, we have the nvpoc just below the ONLO and then pLo which looked poor to me and has a nvpoc just below it confluent with a CHVN which represents an attractive target and potential long. My bias is that ES continues to try to push higher today as it rotates from the mc BAL upward and re-checks the breakdown prices but that selling produces better risk/reward. Longer time frames are very bullish, short time frame is balancing.

Levels Above: 1662.75 pHi, 1665.25 aft. hi**, 1667 ONHI, 1669.25/1670.25***, 1675.25 ledge

Levels Below: 1657.75 nvpoc/ONLO*, 1652.25 pLO, 1651 nvpoc/1650.5 CHVN**, 1645 CHVN***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR above value and pushes higher to 1665.25/1667 and finds sellers then rotates down to 1655 mc vpoc and possibly lower.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR above value and responsive sellers knock it down to ONLO where buyers enter and either grinds back higher thru the day or continues lower to 1650.

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  #604 (permalink)
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1. Sold 1664.75 below the 1665.25 level I wanted just because I really wanted to sell this level and will just use a 4 tick stop in case it prints the 65.75 hi again in which case I will look to take another short on a weak break of the ONHI. Scratched after 8 min and 5 ticks my way when it bounced off vwap to the tick. Would have been loser.

2. Re-entered at 1665.5 for same reason. Its debatable whether trading is worth it today, volume and movement is horrendous. Scratched after 11 min. Would have been loser?

3. Long 1663.75 dVAL/mid/eth vwap on a day that has regenerated into total balance with pronounced vpoc above at 1665.5. Just went against me 4 ticks but printed pHi very lightly so hopefully that holds. Hmm now it went 6 ticks against me. 70 mins in it has gone 6 ticks against and 1 for me yet I am still holding it. Scratched after 90 min and .5 MF vs 1.5 MA. Out in nick of time, would have been a loser.

4. Long 1655 mc vpoc just in case 1654.5 is the low, will use 4 tick stop. Stopped instantly. Got nailed on using a 4 tick stop again...




Recap
ES opened OAIR above value and balanced above pHi before breaking late in the day. Value and vpoc shifted higher. Price however closed on the low and below value. Volume was atrocious for the majority of the day but then increased markedly to close at just over a mill. profile shape is a double distribution. Daily candle shows excess above and a close back in the middle of mc balance. Sellers entered at an expected area so perhaps we rotate down again to see if buyers still exist maybe in the 1643 area. I would think ES would continue to sell off overnight and we open with a gap down but potentially we rotate back up to 1659.

Today sucked. Market did exactly what my first hypothesis said it would do-well not exactly, just different enough to make me unable to profit from it. I was fortunate to scratch most of my trades and unlucky enough to use a 4 tick stop on the last one, the only one which would have been a winner and I took a (small) loss on it. Apparently long off the open pullback was the trade which makes no sense to me. I saw a short on the open but didnt take it and then a short in the 1665-7 area and took those and scratched them. I did not take the 2 tick of the ONHI short because my prior two shorts didnt work out and by that time the profile seemed to indicate to me to wait for higher prices. And then it finally rotates... Nobody could have known the news that would come out. The 4 tick stop I use on that final trade... well it sucks. Would have been a full winner. Hopefully tomorrow is more like the end of today than the beginning.

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  #605 (permalink)
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Econ: confidence

ON Profile: We have a very wide 18 pt range on heavy volume of 275k so far. The hi is right at the mc vpoc while the low is at the 1637.5 CHVN for now but looks likely to be taken out. Vpoc currently at 1642.5 with a pretty fugly/triple distribution-like profile shape.



Well I expected ES to continue to sell off overnight but not to this extent. So from one end of balance to the other in less than 24 hours we go. ES strongly out of balance in the day time frame session to the sell side and we are looking at a 15 pt+ gap down. Key levels to watch will be the 1636 lo as well as the 1631.25 ONLO and barring an OD down I think we can expect responsive buyers to be active for at least rotation to scale out of risk. From there we will have to see if buyers can bring it back into the ON vwap value or if it will continue to be rejected. I feel like I should be more focused on the sell side given that we have this big gap down but we are the bottom of our balance area so I want to be looking long at least initially.

Levels Above: 1643.5 multiple lows/1645 CHVN*, 1650.5 CHVN, 1653.25 pLo**, 1655 mc vpoc, 1659 MP single**

Levels Below: 1635.75 ONLO**, 1631.25 Lo/CHVN**, 1629 CLVN, 1623.25 CHVN, 1620.5 CHVN***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR and pushes to ONLO but fails then rips higher thru the day, potentially back up to 1659.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAOR and sellers control and push below 1631.25 to possibly 1620.5.

Hypo#3- ES opens OD either way, go with.

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  #606 (permalink)
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1. Long 1640.75 vwap/mid after ES opened OAOR and didnt really push lower at all then steadily moved higher. Instantly 4 ticks in my face. Now 6... Stopped after 12 min.

2. Long 1639.5 vwap after being rejected from it before and making new lows then coming back up to it and breaking above by 1.25 pts then pulling back. It feels like I have seen this pattern before so I grabbed the long. Scratched after 3 min and 3 ticks my way because I have no confidence today. Im playing in the middle of a balanced profile. Would have been 1/2W.

3. Sold 1636.75 -1 vwap after ES has come down to the 1636 level 3 times now and I am just expecting a break down to 1631. Last new low was only made by a tick though so maybe it will bounce again. Scratched after 12 min and 1.5 MA vs 1.0 MF, will try to re-enter higher. Unbelievable, straight down after I scratch...

4. Long 1635.25 after pretty strong buying response off the 1634 low. Unreal, 8 ticks my way almost instantly but no fill now back to entry. Stopped after 34 min. So pissed.

5. Long 1631.5 BAL on 2nd test after it was 2 ticked. First test produced 5.5 pt bounce. Stopped after 20 min. Limit down for the day...




Recap
ES opened OAOR with a large gap down and after bouncing initially proceeded to grind lower all day. Value and vpoc significantly lower on the day. Price closed down big, just off the low and below value and prior balance area low. Volume was heavy at about 1.88 mill. Profile shape is kind of double distribution-y. I would anticipate ES would continue to sell off overnight again. The 1620.5 CHVN below looms large and I would really expect a bounce off that otherwise a trip to 1608/07 is in order.

Limit down. Depressing. I have traded horribly the last few weeks. The only positive I can say is that I respected my loss limit. Tomorrow is another day.

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  #607 (permalink)
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Econ: housing

ON Profile: ES traded in a 9 pt range on heavy volume of 226k so far. The low is just 2 ticks below pLo and the hi is kind of near the upper portion of the LVN zone from yesterday, beneath the IBLO. Vpoc currently at 1628 and profile shape is generally balanced with a poorish looking hi.

Yesterday was quite a bearish day with the formation of a lower balance area and close on lows that was also below the prior post-fomc overnight low. The overnight session balanced around the close so these prices are currently being accepted. I think we must consider the bears to be the stronger force at the moment. Todays key reference level will be the ONLO and as long as bulls can build acceptance above it then perhaps an oversold bounce can build (we have sold off ~40 pts since monday afternoon...). But acceptance below has me targeting 1620.5 CHVN but nothing below that until ~1608 which I will definitely buy as it was the mc vpoc and launch point from this latest rally. To the upside, Im thinking the 1635.75 IBLO level will be a good area to initiate a sale. Above that puts 1639 vpoc on the table and then 1642 pVAH. So we have longer time frames still veyr bullish but the short time pretty bearish.

Levels Above: 1631.5 fomc low, 1636.5 pIBLO/BAL**, 1639 nvpoc*, 1644.25 pHi

Levels Below: 1625.75 ONLO*, 1620.5 CHVN**, 1615 CHVN, 1607/08 CHVN/mc vpoc***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR below value, takes out ONLO but pushes up to 1635 then sells off to 1620 and possibly lower.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and sells off to 1620.5 quickly but then finds buyers and grinds higher up to 1635 where sellers enter and closes weakly.

Hypo#3- ES opens OD lower.

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  #608 (permalink)
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1. Sold 1632 literally just taking a chance that the 1633 hi is the HOD as it seems to be struggling up here. Will use a 4 tick stop and whatever happens happens. Stopped after 1 min.

2. Sold 1634.25 after 2 ticking the ONHI and hoping to sell 36's but it stopped. I really dont like the large print it left at the hi (almost 3k) and doubt that wont be revisited so will use a 4 tick stop only and try to re-enter higher if I do. Scratched after 6 minutes and printing the HOD again. Would have been a loser.

3. Sold 1635.5 after not getting filled on the 36's even though 725 printed. So this trade isnt as good now as ES already provided some rotation down. And shortly its 7 ticks in my face. Scratched after 17 min and 1.75 MA. Would have been a loser.

4. Sold 1638.75 after the 1639 nvpoc above was 1 ticked. Market is pretty out of balance to the buy side so maybe I should just call it a day instead of trying to short this all the way up? First scale after 15 min and .25 MA. Will target vpoc 1634 for 2nd lot. Stop moved to entry. Stopped at entry after 58 minutes on 2nd lot. Unreal, as soon as I puke it tanks and would have gotten second scale.




Recap
ES opened OAIR below value, took a peek below pLo and then ran up to prior vpoc before closing the day with some weakness. Value posted an inside day while vpoc shifted a bit lower. Price closed incrementally higher and right on the VAL and also below the fomc low. Volume was moderately heavy at 1.35 mill but that is merely average in the long term. Kind of a p-shaped profile today which makes sense given the strong move down then look below pLo that failed inviting shorts to cover up. Theoretically if this is short covering the market should head back down. We shall see.

Another day of blown trades or missed trades. I was looking long off the open for a 1 or 2 tick of the ONLO but it went 4 ticks which I assumed meant we would see follow through but no dice. I actually was looking short around 1627 vwap and am glad I didnt take it. So then I was hoping for a pullback to 1627 to get long but it never came until it did but I pussed out because it kind of sliced through vwap at 1628.5 and did it twice so I backed away. A couple failed shorts later I get on a solid trade that ends up being 2 ticks off the HOD and they get me out of it for a 1/2 winner to the tick. I moved my stop to entry because buyers were totally in control and I thought that if they went back up again it would just continue higher so why waste an 8 tick stop if you know you are wrong at entry? It backfired and thats the second time Ive done that and gotten nailed to the tick. Pullback to the vwap was a money trade and I missed it by a tick. I think the problem came from the fact that I put my bid in well before price came down there so I was just hoping it would get filled whereas if I had not done that and instead focused on the action *possibly* I would have seen the stall and just lifted the 33s which was rth vwap. I would really like to finish this month strong so please, market gods, throw me a bone!

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  #609 (permalink)
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Econ: claims, GDP (2nd)

ON Profile: ES traded in a 9.5 pt range on decent volume of 163k. The hi is just 2 ticks below pHi (and the exact price I got stopped out of my short runner yesterday...) and the low is right at the 1629.25 CLVN if that is significant or maybe its better to say the selling into the close continued just a bit after the bell. Vpoc currently at 1631 but is likely to shift to 1636. Profile shape is kind of bizarrely double distribution like with a poor-ish hi.



Yesterday we took a peek below the balance area low and found nothing so buyers ripped it higher. We now have a lower excess point of reference. As has been the pattern lately, rallies have stalled at the prior days vpoc and yesterday was no different. Overnight, ES basically balanced inside yesterdays value area. Yesterdays value area was basically the same as the prior days so we have balance. I will look to be a responsive trader around the pVAL and VAH though I will be more cautious around the hi given that yesterdays bounce from the low was much more impressive than the sell off from the hi. If price can be accepted above pHi then the 1644.25 gap zone is the logical target and I will look to be a seller there on first test. I will be keeping an eye on 1642.25 as well to possibly act as resistance as it is a CLVN but also mc VAL for our composite since the syria breakdown began. I would really be surprised if the ONLO gets tested today but as I write the ES is selling off down to 1632.5 kind of aggressively so maybe some news is out. Or I am just wrong. Longer time frames are very bullish, short time frame is bearish/balancing.

Levels Above: 1639.25 pHi/VAH**, 1644.25 gap/1645 CHVN**, 1650.5 CHVN

Levels Below: 1632 pVAL/LVN**, 1629.25 ONLO*, 1624.75 pLO***, 1620.5 CHVN***/1619 nvpoc

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  #610 (permalink)
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1. Long 1635.75 because this thing just wont go down...scratched after a minute, I cant buy this price...would have been full winner.

2. Long 1636.5 1st vwap after ES went to ONHI and stopped short by a tick then pulled back. This market is unreal. Sold and re-bot it again as its struggling here. Sold again. It sucks with this trade location. Would have been full winner.

3. Sold 1644 after pHi 1644.25 was only 1 ticked. Market strong like bull today big time so don't really like the fade but this profile looks pretty horrendous below (but such is the case on trend days). 16 pts of range so far is pretty wide. Scratched after 10 min as it went up to hi's 3 times so will try to re-enter higher. Would have been full winner....

4. Long 1639.5 vwap/IBHI/pHi with vpoc above at 1643 and a triple top hi. What bothers me is that ES came down before and stopped at 1640.5 then rallied up to just above vpoc and came back down again. Took 2 tick loser after 19 min and 1.75 MA. Honestly, wtf anything can happen but how could this trade have gone so wrong?...Could have scratched it a minute later. Would have been loser if I held.

5. Re-entered 1638.25 dVAL/ eth vwap. First scale after 4 min and .5 MA. Will hold 2nd for new hi. Stopped after 90 min.




Recap
ES opened OAIR and just bolted higher before once again closing weak. Vpoc shifted in the last minute from 1642.75 down to 1636.5 which is basically unch. Value shifted slightly overlapping higher. Price closed incrementally higher and right at vpoc. Volume was decent at 1.43 mill. Profile shape is once again another p and with another poor hi, much poorer than yesterday. Daily candle for the third day in a row with a long upper wick. Gap zone was only penetrated by 2 ticks today so sellers are really defending that. So buyers exist in the mid to upper 20's and sellers exist in the mid 44's.

Another day of dis-satisfaction... I was a total pussy on those longs early on on pullbacks back to vwap. I hate that. My short ended up being awesome but I scratched it because of the poor hi and that backfired. My IBHI long didnt work. My dVAL long only gave 1 scale as market closed weak again. Frustration overload...

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  #611 (permalink)
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Econ: income/spending, PMI, michigan

ON Profile: We have an 8.75 pt range on heavy volume of 213k. The hi is just 1 tick above pHi and the low is just 1 tick below yesterdays vpoc. Vpoc currently at 1638.5.

I expected the ES to rally into the close yesterday but it didnt happen. Overnight, ES ran back up to pHi but only 1 ticked it and has now come back down to the close area. Bigger picture ES has balanced for 3 days between the mid 20s and mid 40s. Strong buying responses from below but lackluster selling responses from above although without fail it continues to be weak into the close. I interpret that as a market that wants to go higher but is nervous about news, probably Syria. We have some important econ out today which might set the tone early and then its the last weekend of summer before a holiday so I expect it to die down early as everyone leaves. My bias is to look long as bulls have held above yesterdays vpoc. A nice 1 or 2 tick of the ONLO would be a great reason to buy IMHO targeting that 1645 area. If it goes back up there I am inclined to believe it will not hold this time as its been challenged 3 times already. However, if buyers evaporate again perhaps another weak close is in the cards.

Levels Above: 1642.75 HVN/pVAH*, 1644.75 BAH/ONHI***, 1650.5/1651 CHVN/nvpoc***

Levels Below: 1636.25 ONLO**, 1630.75 mc VAL, 1628.25 pLO**, 1624.75 BAL**, 1620.5/1619 CHVN/nvpoc***

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  #612 (permalink)
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1. Long 1635 after wanting to get long weak break of 1636.25 ONLO but market opened kind of OD down and pushed to 1634.75 so I passed. After a bounce then re-visit to low and only 1 tick I got long. Scaled after 2 min and .5 MA. 15 min in after going 2.5 pts my way it is now back to entry and we have a double bottom. Stopped after 20 min on 2nd lot.

2. Sold 1632.25 -1 vwap after ES has been rejecting it all day. Scratched after a minute because I think I rather would be looking long at lower levels then holding a short and vpoc just shifted to it. Would have been full winner.

3. Long 1629.75 after low was only 1 ticked and this is the area of the strong buying from yesterday. Stop is below pLo. Definitely a fade. Well its gone 5 ticks against me now and stopped a tick short of pLo but we have a decent buying response off it and now 3 ticks in favor. Went 7 ticks my favor but stopped at IBLO to the tick with a weak print-dislike. Scratched 1 after 20 min. Scaled after 34 minutes.

4. Long 1686.25 after pLo taking out by only 2 ticks. Kerry is speaking now so risky. Stopped after 3 min. Unreal, stopped a tick off the low...

5. Long 1632.25 vwap after rocketing higher up to 1634.75 then pulling back. Scratched after 2 min- think its going lower. Would have been full loser.
Went long again at 1632 and once again scratched. No need to trade in the middle of the profile.




Recap
ES opened OD and just grinded lower all day. Value and vpoc shifted completely lower but not by a lot. Price closed inside value right at vpoc. Volume was pretty heavy at 1.65 mill. Profile shape was nicely balanced. Daily candle will show a nice lower wick but I'm losing faith in buyers down there. Today we went down to 1626 twice and bounced both times but its not good for buyers when it keeps going down there.

Today was an example of me not listening to what the market was saying. It started with an OD down and because I had a long bias I basically ignored it and took a whole bunch of longs. A fitting way to end the month as it has been terrible for me. I had one winning day in the last 2 weeks. Brutal. After starting out positively I gave all my gains away and then some. Net pnl, not concluding commish is about -500. Maybe this holiday weekend is just what I need in order to start out positively a new month and start making progress again.

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  #613 (permalink)
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1. Long 1646.25 dVAL after being strongly rejected from pRange and then pulling back here. First scale after 3 min and .25 MA. Stopped on 2nd lot after 11 min.

2. Sold 1646.25 after weakly printing mid/vwap/open 2 ticks above and we have TICK mostly negative all morning. Negatives is that so far the profile is pretty balanced and Im taking a trade in the middle of it. Well it went 6 ticks against me and stopped at vpoc to the tick and came back to entry so hopefully that is good. Now its gone 4 ticks my way but it needs to get through dVAL. Hmm, 7 ticks my favor and now back to entry. Scratched after 32 min. Awesome, they flushed me out and 2 min later i would have gotten a scale...And then second scale shortly after that.

3. Long 1632.75 pClose on pullback after not getting filled then watching it bounce 3 pts straight up and deciding it still made sense to try a long on a pb here, using a 4 tick stop because I really want to try a long at the 1631 nvpoc. First scale after 9 min and .5 MA. Moving my stop to entry again (don't screw me this time!). Stopped after 26 minutes.

4. Re-entered 1632.75 long after making new low by only 2 ticks. Scratched after it went down to low again. Nice buying response it looks like though.

5. Long 1633.75 after making another new low by only a tick and then ripping higher. I am definitely paying up here. Profile looks pretty funny above with a quadruple top around 1635.5 area so I think that area will get cleaned up and run some stops. Scratched and re-entered at 1633 after it went 4 ticks for then 5 against. Great, entry is now vpoc. Scratched after 7 min and went down to lows again. Done with this area.




Recap
ES opened OAOR with a large gap up but could not sustain it and ended up coming back into pRange. Value and vpoc still ended up shifting higher but overall stayed basically inline with established value over the last week of trading. Price closed inside value and inside of pRange. Profile shape is double or even triple distribution. Daily candle shows nice rejection off the low but also that we have been rejected from above our current balance. I am inclined to believe lower prices are in store.

I missed the open due to a doctors appointment but jumped in shortly thereafter with some good trades. Second trade I scratched and as soon as I ditched it the market collapsed. I am so frustrated with being a pussy on trades. I tried various longs totally anticipating the afternoon bounce and they just wouldnt give it to me until I gave up. I was sure the 1631s would not hold on the last test as it had been tested so many times prior but of course thats the time it does hold and I dont get on board. I broke my losing streak today which is nice but overall I still give myself an F on the day. It couldnt have been a real nice day had I held on to my trades. Tomorrow...

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  #614 (permalink)
 Profiler 
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

Econ: beige book

ON Profile: We have a 6.25 pt range on average volume of 139k. The low is just a tick above yesterdays LVN at 1635.75 while the low is kind of in the middle of that wide upper LVN zone between 1640 and 1644. Vpoc currently at 1637.5 and profile is shaped like the letter b. Strong rejection from the hi while the lower area has seen multiple probes.



Yesterday featured a failed breakout to the upside of our recent 4 day balance area. ES came down to the mc vpoc at 1631 and picked up some buyers to close in the middle but below pHi. In the process the mc vpoc shifted up from 1631 to 1637.5 which has also turned into the most traded price this year except for 1540 but in the next few days it will shift to the entire mc vpoc. As always, vpoc shifts confuse me so I dont really know what it means in this case. As I write the ES is making a new ONLO. So we are looking at an OAIR inside value and inside balance open. I will look to fade around the 1643.5 MP single/LVN area as well as around the 1630.75 pLo and expect rotation within said balance.

Levels Above: 1637.5 nvpoc/CHVN, 1643.5 MP single/LVN**, 1650/1651 nvpoc**, 1655 mcHVN

Levels Below: 1635 ONLO/LVN*, 1630.75 pLo*, 1624.75 BAL**, 1620.5 CHVN/1619 nvpoc***

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  #615 (permalink)
 Profiler 
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
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1. Sold 1654 gap close. Ok finally up and running after being down all morning. We have a very strong market but tons of volume being let out up here and a poor auction below as a nice ledge has formed at 1652. Will target 1648 for second scale. First scale after 34 min and .75 MA. So 130 mins it some news comes out and we just had a sell off from 1654 down to 1650 which normally would be my out but I didnt have an order there and it has bounced quickly back to 1652. Ok came back down and now I am out after 2:17. No third scale.




Recap
ES opened OAIR inside value and soon enough catapulted higher thru pHi and closing the Syria breakdown gap. Value and vpoc shifted much higher. Price closed inside value but just off the hi, above pHi and prior balance. Volume was pretty lackluster although average at about 1.37 mill. Profile is very distinctly p-shaped. Daily candle is a pretty strong green bar. Its possible, I think, that today we have rejected the 1637.5 prior mc vpoc/CHVN and broken out of balance and will begin to rotate up to all time hi again. Have to see but I think it makes sense to give the bias back to the bulls now until/unless we fall back into prior balance.

I had tech issues all morning and literally only got solved maybe 15 minutes before I put that short on so it was good timing. I dont know if I would have gotten on that long this morning. I had the ONLO/1635.5 LVN as an area of interest but who knows. Most likely being down this morning probably kept me out of a bunch of failed shorts, like the 1643.5 MP single. The trade I did do was good and although it didnt work out the way I envisioned it, it did work and I almost moved my stop on the second lot to entry but last weeks sting was fresh in my mind and it saved me. Ok, two green days in a row, lets keep this going.

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  #616 (permalink)
 Profiler 
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
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Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
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Econ: ADP, claims, factory, ISM

ON Profile: We have a 6 pt range decent volume of 170k. pHi got taken out by a few points while sellers were unable to make much downside progress, failing to even get to the 1649.5 afternoon lo. Vpoc current at 1653.75 and profile shape is very balanced.



So all of yesterdays gains were maintained last night. Today is a jewish holiday that also happens to be in front of tomorrows big non-farms report so I am expecting a balanced, rotational session with an upside bias. Ideally I would like to see the market open OAIR and drift lower and weakly tag the ONLO and then grind higher up to 1658 where it runs out of gas and just balances. I'm going to put 1644 as my line in the sand for bulls though as any further selling below that turns the tides in bears favor for a move back to 1637.5.

Levels Above: 1658 CHVN**, 1663.5 nvpoc/mc VAH**, 1666.75 CLVN*, 1669.25 GAP

Levels Below: 1650.5 ONLO*, 1648 LVN*, 1644 MP single/bottom of balance***, 1637.5 CHVN**

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  #617 (permalink)
 Profiler 
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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1. Sold 1657.75 CHVN after the 1658 CHVN was only 1 ticked. Market acting strong and pretty quickly blew through pHi so maybe I will get run over here. Might be aggressive on first scale as the ONHI was 1656.5 and if it cant get through there my trade might be toast. Dang its holding above it and ISM is out soon... Scratched one right before the number. Number is out and still hanging around entry. Tick is mostly negative, I think the short is good idea but not working so far. Well now I would have gotten my first scale. Im going to hold this 1 lot for 6 pts. There we go, 45 min in we get a nice 5 handle sell off. Holding for 6 pts here. Ehh, took 53.75 after 60 min when it bounced strongly off prior swing low.




Recap
ES put in a balanced rotational day. Value and vpoc shifted slightly higher. Price closed near the low and yesterdays vpoc. Volume was horrendous at barely a mill. Profile shape is very balanced. Daily candle is a doji-indicating uncertainty or just consolidation ahead of non-farms. Going forward I say the bulls have the edge but everything hinges on tomorrow. A bad report, as to whatever the criteria is looking for, could instantly reverse said edge.

Basically what i suggested would happen in my pre-market analysis was spot on. I just wish it had taken out the ONLO first instead of stopping 3 ticks short and allowed me to get on the long. The short was good but unfortunately I had to cut my risk ahead of the number. I was going to add it back on if the hi got 1 ticked but that never happened. Second day in a row I took a short that just seemed like I would get run over and took forever to give a scale but it was the right trade. I wish the market operated on my timeframe but it doesnt. Third green day in a row but all small numbers, would really like to bang out a g some day...

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  #618 (permalink)
 Profiler 
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

Econ: non-farms

ON Profile: We have a 15.5 pt range on heavy volume of 255k so far, just after the econ release. The hi is the 1663.5 nvpoc to the tick while the low is just above that LVN from 2 days ago. Vpoc currently 1653.25 and profile shape is undetermined I guess.



Ok so the news is out and apparently the market likes it. We have had a nice reaction off the 1663.5 nvpoc but are holding above pHi so now what? Despite the excitement surrounding non-farms, it seems to me they usually end up being pretty boring days. My inclination is to look to be a seller around the ONHI if it gets rejected again for a move back down to yesterdays prominent vpoc and possibly lower but recognize that the ONHI would be a second test so not ideal. If prices are accepted above 1663.5 then I think the 1669.25 gap is on the table where I will once again look to be a seller. I think its hard to be a buyer but if we open and responsive sellers are nowhere to be found then I think you have to try the long side. I think we can place all time frames back in bullish camp again.

Levels Above: 1663.5 nvpoc/ONHI**, 1666.75 CLVN, 1669.25/1670.25 gap/CHVN***, 1675.5 ledge

Levels Below: 1658.25 pHi, 1654.5 nvpoc, 1648.5 ONLO***, 1644 BAL, 1637.5 CHVN***

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  #619 (permalink)
 Profiler 
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

1. Long 1652.5 pVAL on some pretty wicked selling, stepping in front of a bus but this area acgted as good support yesterday. Wow, stopped instantly. Horrible.

2. Long again 1648.5 after ONLO one ticked. Really massive selling, whats going on here? Stopped, took 3 pt loss, unreal. Some syria news about russia...

3. Sold 1652.5 dVAH/ledge from yesterday. Market appears to be rejecting syria news now so maybe the short side is done. Stopped, unbelievable, done for the day. Lost everything I gained this week and more.




Recap
ES opened OAOR and then shit hit the fan only to end up with a doji. Vpoc ended up higher still while value put in an outside day. Price closed inside value and inside pRange. Volume was extremely heavy at 2.15 mill. Not even sure how to describe todays profile shape. So sellers still exist in the mid to upper 60s while lower 40's are too cheap. I think bulls still have a slight edge going into next week.

God, what a horrendous day. I dont know how I didnt perceive the sell off as a news event, for some reason I assumed it was just some longs getting flushed. 3 trades, a total of less than 7 minutes in the trade and more than limit down for my worst day ever. On a friday. This will be my last blog post. I will continue to journal privately but honestly I am embarrassed by my performance and lack of sufficient progress that I have decided to just stop this. I really should be making money consistantly by now but I am down (less than a g only but still...). I thank everyone here who has posted or private messaged me with help! I will figure this out eventually!
Mike

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  #620 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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God, what a horrendous day. I dont know how I didnt perceive the sell off as a news event, for some reason I assumed it was just some longs getting flushed. 3 trades, a total of less than 7 minutes in the trade and more than limit down for my worst day ever. On a friday. This will be my last blog post. I will continue to journal privately but honestly I am embarrassed by my performance and lack of sufficient progress that I have decided to just stop this. I really should be making money consistantly by now but I am down (less than a g only but still...). I thank everyone here who has posted or private messaged me with help! I will figure this out eventually!
Mike

I feel your pain, we've all been there.

If you do decide to stop posting then I can only hope you will truly continue to do it privately. Based on what I've seen over the years, public accountability is really worth a lot in terms of reason to improve. You should not feel embarrassed by your performance as a whole.

The idea of a public journal is to hold you accountable, primarily from not repeating obvious mistakes. It's not about a right or wrong method, it's about trading the way you've set forth in your own journal. For instance, if you say "I am not going to trade on Friday, ever" then you trade on Friday, then yes you should be embarrassed for violating one of your rules. Now whether or not that rule makes any sense, well that is for you to find out after reviewing days, weeks and months of your journal and looking for the patterns that emerge.

One thing I would strongly encourage you to do is to go back from the beginning of your journal this weekend, and start making some notes. Read every post in your journal and just start writing down the stuff that jumps out at you. I am mainly talking about observing certain patterns (behavioral, psychological but also in your methodology) and see if you can walk away with a good solid list of things that you hadn't previously been aware of but that in re-reading your journal they really stand out as areas of interest or focus for you.

What I've found is that most people will see themselves repeating the same mistakes over and over, but it was not at all obvious to them until they really went back and read every journal post in succession. It is at that time these things really stand out.

Regarding today's market, really the only advice I have is based on my own experience and my own trading. I stopped trading both sides of the market (long and short on same day) a long time ago. If I ever trade in both directions in one day it makes me uncomfortable. For a scalper, you might allow yourself 1 trade in the wrong direction then all remaining trades in the opposite direction. I cannot say for sure, because I am not a scalper and I am also not you. It's really based on what works for you. But I can tell you that switching directions during the day has resulted in some of the worst losses I've had, so I just don't do it any more.

In that context, I am currently favoring longs on the ES especially after weak NFP. So this morning in the sell off I would not be interested in shorts and would just sit on hands until price came to a level that I was interested in taking a long position from.

Anyway, I don't want to focus too much on methodology. Everyone needs to design their own method and not trade someone elses, if they have any hope of being successful. But I do encourage you to review your journal and learn from what it is telling you.

Mike

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  #621 (permalink)
ElSenorMosquito
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Right now is the exact time where you can make (albeit painful) leaps and bounds in your trading. Make the most of this moment.

Best of luck to you sir.

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 Ddawg 
Phoenix Arizona
 
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Hi Profiler, I am sorry you had such a tough day. In your defence that was an amazing move off the open. almost 19 handles in the first 20 min.! Who knows, maybe the volatility of 08 is coming back.

I was thinking, have you had a chance to look at your strategy/results within the context of volume/volatility? August is a notoriously slow month, and maybe that has caused some problems for you. Fridays results could be written off to a black swan type of day (IMHO), but I also know that sometimes the mental and emotional beating is far tougher to come back from.

I too hope you will continue journaling and wish you all the best.


Ddawg

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  #623 (permalink)
 Ignawin 
Prague, Czech Republic
 
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Profiler:

BigMike has put it the right way. Im just writing this post to encourage you to keep on posting. Personally, I've been checking your journal (not kidding) every single day, before and after trading.

I can't imagine how tough it is for you to post publically, as I'm not posting such journal myself, though I do believe those posts make you a better trader. It just takes balls to publish your analysis & results every single day, no matter what. It does.

In the end, it's your decision, so if you decide to keep things private, I'd like to thank you at least this way for your sincerity & most importantly the time you've put into this journal.

Regards
I.

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  #624 (permalink)
 kronie 
NYC + NY / USA
 
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I searched through this thread, and somehow missed or overlooked seeing how to configure a workspace and chart series similar to what you're using, so that one could follow you on this endeavour. Is there a shopping list of indicators, settings or whatever, just to get started and up to speed?

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  #625 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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kronie View Post
I searched through this thread, and somehow missed or overlooked seeing how to configure a workspace and chart series similar

I am not sure if you realize he is not using NinjaTrader.

Mike

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 kronie 
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josh View Post
Profiler, thanks for starting the thread. You seem to have a great attitude. Welcome to futures.io (formerly BMT), it's a great community here.

@Profiler, @josh

I too want to thank you for this thread, we at times, during our metamorphisis, should we survive, is to attain nirvana or the ability to claim, what you have done!, namely bank bucks, as we say on Wall Street.

I don't know many traders that honestly wouldn't like to say they trade 6,000 contracts daily in the most liquid of instruments, they have access to, whether its the ES, FESX, FGBL, FDAX or CL.

Thanks again for sharing this thread, because if @isla, had not brought it up again, perhaps the value of this thread would have gone missing. There are those that suggest that the HFT's and other scalp mad gamblers of the markets provided some social benefit in that they "added liquidity". They lined their pockets by short circuiting the very nature of the exchange markets, to the tune of billions siphoned away from normalized trading and practical value traders. The notion that progress would have eventually led to those levels is another side show distraction they use to deflect the arguements too.

Perhaps we can all recast ourselves and return to the heady days of working 4 hours and banking bucks!


Here, here!

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