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Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling
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Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling

  #601 (permalink)
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8-24 pre-market

Economic data: housing

ON Profile: We have a 7.5 pt range on normal volume of 144k so far. The hi is just 1 tick above pHi and the low is 2 ticks below yesterdays vpoc. Vpoc currently at 1655.25 and profile shape is pretty balanced albeit with an LVN at yesterdays VAH.

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Yesterdays ON lo was strongly rejected off the open with almost an open drive higher which makes me think we have an excess low in place and ES can now continue higher to test the break down levels og 1665 and 1669 to see if sellers are still active there. Its one of the last fridays of summer with little important data out and ES had a quiet night balancing in the upper half of yesterdays range which further makes me think the bulls have the edge today. As of right now, ES is set to open OAIR above value and perhaps that LVN in the overnight session, which is also roughly confluent with vpoc, will be an attractive long location for a move up to 1661 and then 1665 and potentially higher. Longer time frames are extremely bullish and short time frame is balancing/bearish.

Levels Above: 1657.75 pHi/ONHI*, 1659 CHVN*, 1661.5 Hi, 1665.25 breakdown level**, 1669.25 Hi/1670.25 CHVN***

Levels Below: 1654 ON LVN* (?), 1651 nvpoc/ONLO**, 1643.25 pLO/ mc VAL**, 1637.5 CHVN*

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR above value and sellers push weakly to 1654 or perhaps 1650.5 but are rejected and buyers grind higher thru the day. Potential big selling response at 1665.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and pushes up to ONHI but fails and auctions down to 1650 then balances the rest of the day.

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  #602 (permalink)
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8-23 trades and recap

1. Sold 1658.75 with kind of an open drive or OAOR open with responsive sellers active. I missed on the first push down which sucks and now this is second time above pHi so not cool. The low looks pretty poor. This is the mc VAH so I think that lends support to the short. First scale after 5 min and .5 MA. Second scale after 15 min. If I werent down money every day this week I would probably hold this trade trying for 1650 but I need a winner.

2. Bot 1659.25 (1 lot only) due to a long bias and this thing just unable to push lower than vpoc with successive higher lows in place. Walking out the door with OCO orders in place to just let this thing either work or not fully aware that I am buying at the VAH. Scaled after 22 min and .5 MA.

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Recap
ES opened OAOR and put in a balanced rotational day with a spike into the close. Vpoc and value shifted higher. Price closed higher, jsut off the hi of day and above value. Volume was pretty pathetic at 1.08 mill. Profile shape was extremely well balanced until a late spike kind of distorted it but the MP profile looks beautiful. ES continuing to grind higher exploring the upper area of the current mc and it will be interesting to see if sellers show up next week at the key 1665/1669 levels and we get another leg down or if this sell off was just a 1 week thing.

I am happy to break the losing streak! First trade was solid, spot on reasoning *I think*. Im glad I took the mechanical 4 pt trade in this case because for sure I would have kept staring at the low and thinking it had to break and it never did. Second trade was pretty bogus but I did it with only a lot and I think I had context on my side. But obviously buying at the dVAH on up to that point a pretty perfectly balanced day with a poorish low is not the best of ideas. Overall this week sucked for me. I lost money but I end it on a positive note and if I have a good week next week can still salvage some beer money for the month. Have a good weekend all!


Last edited by Profiler; August 23rd, 2013 at 06:22 PM.
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  #603 (permalink)
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8-26 pre-market


Econ- durable goods

ON Profile: We have a 8.75 pt range on very light volume of 98k so far...that is one of the most pathetic volumes I've seen so far. The hi is well above pHi and just above the 1665.25 afternoon hi from the breakdown day as well as the 1666.5 CLVN. The low is 2 ticks above fridays vpoc. Vpoc currently 1660.75 so inside fridays range. Profile is shaped very much like a b.

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Ok so its the last week of summer and many big players are on vacation. Its also a holiday in London and eurex was shut down for awhile last night and we have tiny volume in the ES...what can we expect today (and this week)? I don't think much but lets hope for better. ES is expected to open OAIR above value and right around the mc VAH. As we push above value in our current mc I am more inclined to favor the short side. 1665 and 1669.25/1670.25 are two levels I am very keen to short. The first level was hit last night and provided good rotation but I will be careful about selling it on second touch. I will pretty much short the 1670 level regardless of what happens. As for downside levels, we have the nvpoc just below the ONLO and then pLo which looked poor to me and has a nvpoc just below it confluent with a CHVN which represents an attractive target and potential long. My bias is that ES continues to try to push higher today as it rotates from the mc BAL upward and re-checks the breakdown prices but that selling produces better risk/reward. Longer time frames are very bullish, short time frame is balancing.

Levels Above: 1662.75 pHi, 1665.25 aft. hi**, 1667 ONHI, 1669.25/1670.25***, 1675.25 ledge

Levels Below: 1657.75 nvpoc/ONLO*, 1652.25 pLO, 1651 nvpoc/1650.5 CHVN**, 1645 CHVN***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR above value and pushes higher to 1665.25/1667 and finds sellers then rotates down to 1655 mc vpoc and possibly lower.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR above value and responsive sellers knock it down to ONLO where buyers enter and either grinds back higher thru the day or continues lower to 1650.

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  #604 (permalink)
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8-26 trades and recap

1. Sold 1664.75 below the 1665.25 level I wanted just because I really wanted to sell this level and will just use a 4 tick stop in case it prints the 65.75 hi again in which case I will look to take another short on a weak break of the ONHI. Scratched after 8 min and 5 ticks my way when it bounced off vwap to the tick. Would have been loser.

2. Re-entered at 1665.5 for same reason. Its debatable whether trading is worth it today, volume and movement is horrendous. Scratched after 11 min. Would have been loser?

3. Long 1663.75 dVAL/mid/eth vwap on a day that has regenerated into total balance with pronounced vpoc above at 1665.5. Just went against me 4 ticks but printed pHi very lightly so hopefully that holds. Hmm now it went 6 ticks against me. 70 mins in it has gone 6 ticks against and 1 for me yet I am still holding it. Scratched after 90 min and .5 MF vs 1.5 MA. Out in nick of time, would have been a loser.

4. Long 1655 mc vpoc just in case 1654.5 is the low, will use 4 tick stop. Stopped instantly. Got nailed on using a 4 tick stop again...

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Recap
ES opened OAIR above value and balanced above pHi before breaking late in the day. Value and vpoc shifted higher. Price however closed on the low and below value. Volume was atrocious for the majority of the day but then increased markedly to close at just over a mill. profile shape is a double distribution. Daily candle shows excess above and a close back in the middle of mc balance. Sellers entered at an expected area so perhaps we rotate down again to see if buyers still exist maybe in the 1643 area. I would think ES would continue to sell off overnight and we open with a gap down but potentially we rotate back up to 1659.

Today sucked. Market did exactly what my first hypothesis said it would do-well not exactly, just different enough to make me unable to profit from it. I was fortunate to scratch most of my trades and unlucky enough to use a 4 tick stop on the last one, the only one which would have been a winner and I took a (small) loss on it. Apparently long off the open pullback was the trade which makes no sense to me. I saw a short on the open but didnt take it and then a short in the 1665-7 area and took those and scratched them. I did not take the 2 tick of the ONHI short because my prior two shorts didnt work out and by that time the profile seemed to indicate to me to wait for higher prices. And then it finally rotates... Nobody could have known the news that would come out. The 4 tick stop I use on that final trade... well it sucks. Would have been a full winner. Hopefully tomorrow is more like the end of today than the beginning.

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  #605 (permalink)
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8-27 pre-market

Econ: confidence

ON Profile: We have a very wide 18 pt range on heavy volume of 275k so far. The hi is right at the mc vpoc while the low is at the 1637.5 CHVN for now but looks likely to be taken out. Vpoc currently at 1642.5 with a pretty fugly/triple distribution-like profile shape.

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Well I expected ES to continue to sell off overnight but not to this extent. So from one end of balance to the other in less than 24 hours we go. ES strongly out of balance in the day time frame session to the sell side and we are looking at a 15 pt+ gap down. Key levels to watch will be the 1636 lo as well as the 1631.25 ONLO and barring an OD down I think we can expect responsive buyers to be active for at least rotation to scale out of risk. From there we will have to see if buyers can bring it back into the ON vwap value or if it will continue to be rejected. I feel like I should be more focused on the sell side given that we have this big gap down but we are the bottom of our balance area so I want to be looking long at least initially.

Levels Above: 1643.5 multiple lows/1645 CHVN*, 1650.5 CHVN, 1653.25 pLo**, 1655 mc vpoc, 1659 MP single**

Levels Below: 1635.75 ONLO**, 1631.25 Lo/CHVN**, 1629 CLVN, 1623.25 CHVN, 1620.5 CHVN***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR and pushes to ONLO but fails then rips higher thru the day, potentially back up to 1659.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAOR and sellers control and push below 1631.25 to possibly 1620.5.

Hypo#3- ES opens OD either way, go with.

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  #606 (permalink)
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8-27 trades and recap

1. Long 1640.75 vwap/mid after ES opened OAOR and didnt really push lower at all then steadily moved higher. Instantly 4 ticks in my face. Now 6... Stopped after 12 min.

2. Long 1639.5 vwap after being rejected from it before and making new lows then coming back up to it and breaking above by 1.25 pts then pulling back. It feels like I have seen this pattern before so I grabbed the long. Scratched after 3 min and 3 ticks my way because I have no confidence today. Im playing in the middle of a balanced profile. Would have been 1/2W.

3. Sold 1636.75 -1 vwap after ES has come down to the 1636 level 3 times now and I am just expecting a break down to 1631. Last new low was only made by a tick though so maybe it will bounce again. Scratched after 12 min and 1.5 MA vs 1.0 MF, will try to re-enter higher. Unbelievable, straight down after I scratch...

4. Long 1635.25 after pretty strong buying response off the 1634 low. Unreal, 8 ticks my way almost instantly but no fill now back to entry. Stopped after 34 min. So pissed.

5. Long 1631.5 BAL on 2nd test after it was 2 ticked. First test produced 5.5 pt bounce. Stopped after 20 min. Limit down for the day...

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Recap
ES opened OAOR with a large gap down and after bouncing initially proceeded to grind lower all day. Value and vpoc significantly lower on the day. Price closed down big, just off the low and below value and prior balance area low. Volume was heavy at about 1.88 mill. Profile shape is kind of double distribution-y. I would anticipate ES would continue to sell off overnight again. The 1620.5 CHVN below looms large and I would really expect a bounce off that otherwise a trip to 1608/07 is in order.

Limit down. Depressing. I have traded horribly the last few weeks. The only positive I can say is that I respected my loss limit. Tomorrow is another day.


Last edited by Profiler; August 27th, 2013 at 05:59 PM.
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  #607 (permalink)
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8-28 pre-market

Econ: housing

ON Profile: ES traded in a 9 pt range on heavy volume of 226k so far. The low is just 2 ticks below pLo and the hi is kind of near the upper portion of the LVN zone from yesterday, beneath the IBLO. Vpoc currently at 1628 and profile shape is generally balanced with a poorish looking hi.

Yesterday was quite a bearish day with the formation of a lower balance area and close on lows that was also below the prior post-fomc overnight low. The overnight session balanced around the close so these prices are currently being accepted. I think we must consider the bears to be the stronger force at the moment. Todays key reference level will be the ONLO and as long as bulls can build acceptance above it then perhaps an oversold bounce can build (we have sold off ~40 pts since monday afternoon...). But acceptance below has me targeting 1620.5 CHVN but nothing below that until ~1608 which I will definitely buy as it was the mc vpoc and launch point from this latest rally. To the upside, Im thinking the 1635.75 IBLO level will be a good area to initiate a sale. Above that puts 1639 vpoc on the table and then 1642 pVAH. So we have longer time frames still veyr bullish but the short time pretty bearish.

Levels Above: 1631.5 fomc low, 1636.5 pIBLO/BAL**, 1639 nvpoc*, 1644.25 pHi

Levels Below: 1625.75 ONLO*, 1620.5 CHVN**, 1615 CHVN, 1607/08 CHVN/mc vpoc***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR below value, takes out ONLO but pushes up to 1635 then sells off to 1620 and possibly lower.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and sells off to 1620.5 quickly but then finds buyers and grinds higher up to 1635 where sellers enter and closes weakly.

Hypo#3- ES opens OD lower.

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  #608 (permalink)
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8-28 trades and recap

1. Sold 1632 literally just taking a chance that the 1633 hi is the HOD as it seems to be struggling up here. Will use a 4 tick stop and whatever happens happens. Stopped after 1 min.

2. Sold 1634.25 after 2 ticking the ONHI and hoping to sell 36's but it stopped. I really dont like the large print it left at the hi (almost 3k) and doubt that wont be revisited so will use a 4 tick stop only and try to re-enter higher if I do. Scratched after 6 minutes and printing the HOD again. Would have been a loser.

3. Sold 1635.5 after not getting filled on the 36's even though 725 printed. So this trade isnt as good now as ES already provided some rotation down. And shortly its 7 ticks in my face. Scratched after 17 min and 1.75 MA. Would have been a loser.

4. Sold 1638.75 after the 1639 nvpoc above was 1 ticked. Market is pretty out of balance to the buy side so maybe I should just call it a day instead of trying to short this all the way up? First scale after 15 min and .25 MA. Will target vpoc 1634 for 2nd lot. Stop moved to entry. Stopped at entry after 58 minutes on 2nd lot. Unreal, as soon as I puke it tanks and would have gotten second scale.

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Recap
ES opened OAIR below value, took a peek below pLo and then ran up to prior vpoc before closing the day with some weakness. Value posted an inside day while vpoc shifted a bit lower. Price closed incrementally higher and right on the VAL and also below the fomc low. Volume was moderately heavy at 1.35 mill but that is merely average in the long term. Kind of a p-shaped profile today which makes sense given the strong move down then look below pLo that failed inviting shorts to cover up. Theoretically if this is short covering the market should head back down. We shall see.

Another day of blown trades or missed trades. I was looking long off the open for a 1 or 2 tick of the ONLO but it went 4 ticks which I assumed meant we would see follow through but no dice. I actually was looking short around 1627 vwap and am glad I didnt take it. So then I was hoping for a pullback to 1627 to get long but it never came until it did but I pussed out because it kind of sliced through vwap at 1628.5 and did it twice so I backed away. A couple failed shorts later I get on a solid trade that ends up being 2 ticks off the HOD and they get me out of it for a 1/2 winner to the tick. I moved my stop to entry because buyers were totally in control and I thought that if they went back up again it would just continue higher so why waste an 8 tick stop if you know you are wrong at entry? It backfired and thats the second time Ive done that and gotten nailed to the tick. Pullback to the vwap was a money trade and I missed it by a tick. I think the problem came from the fact that I put my bid in well before price came down there so I was just hoping it would get filled whereas if I had not done that and instead focused on the action *possibly* I would have seen the stall and just lifted the 33s which was rth vwap. I would really like to finish this month strong so please, market gods, throw me a bone!

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  #609 (permalink)
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8-29 pre-market

Econ: claims, GDP (2nd)

ON Profile: ES traded in a 9.5 pt range on decent volume of 163k. The hi is just 2 ticks below pHi (and the exact price I got stopped out of my short runner yesterday...) and the low is right at the 1629.25 CLVN if that is significant or maybe its better to say the selling into the close continued just a bit after the bell. Vpoc currently at 1631 but is likely to shift to 1636. Profile shape is kind of bizarrely double distribution like with a poor-ish hi.

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Yesterday we took a peek below the balance area low and found nothing so buyers ripped it higher. We now have a lower excess point of reference. As has been the pattern lately, rallies have stalled at the prior days vpoc and yesterday was no different. Overnight, ES basically balanced inside yesterdays value area. Yesterdays value area was basically the same as the prior days so we have balance. I will look to be a responsive trader around the pVAL and VAH though I will be more cautious around the hi given that yesterdays bounce from the low was much more impressive than the sell off from the hi. If price can be accepted above pHi then the 1644.25 gap zone is the logical target and I will look to be a seller there on first test. I will be keeping an eye on 1642.25 as well to possibly act as resistance as it is a CLVN but also mc VAL for our composite since the syria breakdown began. I would really be surprised if the ONLO gets tested today but as I write the ES is selling off down to 1632.5 kind of aggressively so maybe some news is out. Or I am just wrong. Longer time frames are very bullish, short time frame is bearish/balancing.

Levels Above: 1639.25 pHi/VAH**, 1644.25 gap/1645 CHVN**, 1650.5 CHVN

Levels Below: 1632 pVAL/LVN**, 1629.25 ONLO*, 1624.75 pLO***, 1620.5 CHVN***/1619 nvpoc

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  #610 (permalink)
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8-29 trades and recap


1. Long 1635.75 because this thing just wont go down...scratched after a minute, I cant buy this price...would have been full winner.

2. Long 1636.5 1st vwap after ES went to ONHI and stopped short by a tick then pulled back. This market is unreal. Sold and re-bot it again as its struggling here. Sold again. It sucks with this trade location. Would have been full winner.

3. Sold 1644 after pHi 1644.25 was only 1 ticked. Market strong like bull today big time so don't really like the fade but this profile looks pretty horrendous below (but such is the case on trend days). 16 pts of range so far is pretty wide. Scratched after 10 min as it went up to hi's 3 times so will try to re-enter higher. Would have been full winner....

4. Long 1639.5 vwap/IBHI/pHi with vpoc above at 1643 and a triple top hi. What bothers me is that ES came down before and stopped at 1640.5 then rallied up to just above vpoc and came back down again. Took 2 tick loser after 19 min and 1.75 MA. Honestly, wtf anything can happen but how could this trade have gone so wrong?...Could have scratched it a minute later. Would have been loser if I held.

5. Re-entered 1638.25 dVAL/ eth vwap. First scale after 4 min and .5 MA. Will hold 2nd for new hi. Stopped after 90 min.

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Recap
ES opened OAIR and just bolted higher before once again closing weak. Vpoc shifted in the last minute from 1642.75 down to 1636.5 which is basically unch. Value shifted slightly overlapping higher. Price closed incrementally higher and right at vpoc. Volume was decent at 1.43 mill. Profile shape is once again another p and with another poor hi, much poorer than yesterday. Daily candle for the third day in a row with a long upper wick. Gap zone was only penetrated by 2 ticks today so sellers are really defending that. So buyers exist in the mid to upper 20's and sellers exist in the mid 44's.

Another day of dis-satisfaction... I was a total pussy on those longs early on on pullbacks back to vwap. I hate that. My short ended up being awesome but I scratched it because of the poor hi and that backfired. My IBHI long didnt work. My dVAL long only gave 1 scale as market closed weak again. Frustration overload...

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