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Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling


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Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling

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  #501 (permalink)
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No trades here either. I think we did the right thing...no reason to take on risk with so little volume. Seems to me if one of the big boys had decided to sell, who knows what might have happened.

For example; looking at 12:35, could see a short developing, but I didn't want short trades today, only longs. So glad I didn't try to switch horses in the middle of the stream. Would have gotten chopped up.

Good trading all,
Ddawg

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  #502 (permalink)
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Ddawg View Post
For example; looking at 12:35, could see a short developing, but I didn't want short trades today, only longs.
Ddawg

i agree about only wanting longs yesterday though i was prepared for a short off 1679.75 if there was a nice reaction off it earlier in the day. what made you consider a short around 12:35? are you an MP/VP trader or using some other methods?

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  #503 (permalink)
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Economic data: CPI, housing

ON Profile: Extremely tight 4.5 pt range and extremely light volume of 104k so far. The low is pVAL while the hi is 1678.75, just under pHi and very poor looking. Vpoc is 1677.25 which is basically inline with yesterday's. Profile shape is not complete, looks like we have only 1/2 of a real profile. @Trendisyourfriend, this is a good example of a poor hi, does that profile look good to you???



Today is setting up to be a repeat of yesterday. ES did practically nothing yesterday but it did have an upward bias. Today ES is set to open OAIR inside value and given the poor hi overnight and all time hi's still waiting to be broken the bias is once again to the upside. Everyone seems to be waiting for the bernanke tomorrow to make any real decisions. Despite my bias to the upside it would seem that risk/reward is now beginning to favor the sellers if only for a fast 20-30 pt quick beatdown to shake out some weak hands. Any type of peak above 1679.75 all time hi that is met with aggressive sellers will have me on the look out for such a move but only that and probably not today. All time frames are very bullish.

Levels Above: 1679.75 all time hi, 1700***

Levels Below: 1670 nvpoc*, 1664.5 nvpoc*, 1660.75 gap, 1658.25 CHVN**, 1655 CLVN ?, 1648.5 BAH***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR inside value and sells off weakly to ONLO then resumes slow grind higher above all time hi. Perhaps late day sell off to balance positions ahead of tomorrow.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and pushes above 1679.75 and fails and sellers knock it down to 1670/1664.5 or perhaps lower.

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  #504 (permalink)
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Profiler View Post
i agree about only wanting longs yesterday though i was prepared for a short off 1679.75 if there was a nice reaction off it earlier in the day. what made you consider a short around 12:35? are you an MP/VP trader or using some other methods?

No. I am not a MP guy. Was just looking at the double top at 78.00, but it would have had to take out the low at 12:05 to really trigger anything. Kind of trade that would have sucked me in in times past. Probably a bear trap.

Good Trading
Ddawg

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  #505 (permalink)
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1. Long 1670.75 ahead of 1670 nvpoc after it printed 70.25 weakly and this is a decent 6 pt rotation down. Dang, would have been filled on 1670s if I waited... Scratched them after 3 min and 1.0 MA because I think I can buy these back lower... Would have been a full loser.

2. Long 1669.75 for reasons above. So ES has been grinding lower since the open and paused at 1675 for awhile which is where vpoc is and i think a rotation back up to there is reasonable from here but it does appear as if the high for the day is in. It has built a lot of volume below pLo though. Scratched after 17 min and .5 MF vs 1.75 MA and almost 5k on the low tick which makes me think new lows yet. Would have been full loser as well.




Recap
ES opened OAIR above value and top ticked the same hi as yesterday then spent the rest fo the day slowly grinding lower. Value and vpoc shifted completely lower on the order of 7 pts. Price finally finished lower for once as well, closing inside value on very weak volume once again but not nearly as pathetic as yesterday. All in all it seemed as though people just wanted to take a bit of risk off the table ahead of the bernanke tomorrow. Double top on daily candle at 1679.5 with all time hi a tick above that. Next time up there I would not expect to hold.

Well once again the market didn't give me what I wanted for a short right off the bat so I watched it grind lower. I then took a couple stabs at a long at a good location and it didn't work out but I didn't cost me anything either. I missed the short at vwap because I was hoping for a bounce up to 74-75 which I thought was a better location given the LVN that existed between 72-74 I was afraid of it just ripping right thru there and I would have wanted to short 74-75 area as well so if I shorted 72.5 then my stop would have to have been like 76 and with a 3 pt average scale out on my 2 lots it didn't seem to make sense. Am I thinking about that trade right? Should I have just let it fly? With what stop?

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  #506 (permalink)
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I know it is not a big deal but on the CME web site the all time high is at 1680.25. Even though it should not make a big difference to your results you should try to understand why your platform indicates 1679.75.


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  #507 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
I know it is not a big deal but on the CME web site the all time high is at 1680.25. Even though it should not make a big difference to your results you should try to understand why your platform indicates 1679.75.

This is because the September ESU contract's actual high on May 22 was indeed 1680.25. But Profiler is using back-adjusted data prior to the June->Sept roll, so his May 22 data is from ESM, but back-adjusted to match what September would approximately be. He wants to see the volume information for May 22, but can't use ESU because it had virtually no volume yet as it wasn't the front month contract, so he's using the back-adjusted continuous contract.

This is a perfect example of how displaying historical data for a futures contract is not an exact science--and due to convergence of the futures and cash as expiration nears, even a single contract cycle with no rolls or adjustments will be "off" with the underlying (as can be seen from the cash high on 5/22 being about 2 handles off right now from the current futures+premium; in other words, as the SPX reaches its all time high of 1687, ESU will already be about 1682, 2 handles north of its "all time high," unless of course it is near the ESU->ESZ roll in which case they will match almost perfectly due to convergence).

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  #508 (permalink)
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great thread

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  #509 (permalink)
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Profiler, good job scratching your longs. This is the 3 day Thursday-Monday prior to today. What do you see in terms of trade location based on this?


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  #510 (permalink)
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josh View Post
Profiler, good job scratching your longs. This is the 3 day Thursday-Monday prior to today. What do you see in terms of trade location based on this?


I see that the BAL 1660 was only tested once and strongly rejected. I was thinking bounces or outright reversals at the HVN's at 1664.5 and 1670.25 and if short use those as targets if ES was rejected from 1677.5- what do you think?

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  #511 (permalink)
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Economic data: housing, the bernanke, beige book

ON Profile: Another generally quiet night with a 7.25 pt range and 145k traded. pLo got taken out by a few ticks but rejected. The hi is currently 1673 so the 1675 LVN/breakdown area was not tested. Vpoc basically inline with yesterdays at 1671.75.



ES finally solf off yesterday ahead of the bernanke. There really is no telling what will happen today based on his testimony but I will say I think the key level will be 1675. Rejection from there will target 1670 then 1664 and possibly lower. Acceptance above there opens the door to another crack at all time hi and this time would be the third attempt which I don't think will hold. All time frames are very bullish.

Levels Above: 1675 LVN***, 1679.5 double top/all time hi, 1700

Levels Below: 1670.25 CHVN, 1664.5 nvpoc, 1660.75 GAP, 1658.25 CHVN**, 1655 CLVN?, 1648.5 BAH***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR above value and sellers make first push but fail at 1675 and bulls grind higher thru the day.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR above value and sellers knock it down and maintain control thru the day down to 1660 or lower.

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  #512 (permalink)
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Profiler View Post
I see that the BAL 1660 was only tested once and strongly rejected. I was thinking bounces or outright reversals at the HVN's at 1664.5 and 1670.25 and if short use those as targets if ES was rejected from 1677.5- what do you think?

I see a good case for a bounce from 70, as it is the most fair price of the entire distribution. But HV prices are prices that have been accepted previously, and while they are sometimes good for a "buy/sell back at a fair value" trade, LV prices are previously rejected prices, which is why I'm surprised you did not consider 67. The bulk of value in those three days was 67 to 72 (and continues to be after day 4, Tuesday). If the most fair price at 70 does not find many buyers, and if the low of the 67-72 distribution fails to find buyers, then there's no way I'd look to 64s--at that point ES has rejected the high of the distribution, has traded through fair value, has traded through unfair lows, and so I would fully expect 60, the low of the entire group, to trade.

Happy trading today buddy!

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  #513 (permalink)
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josh View Post
LV prices are previously rejected prices, which is why I'm surprised you did not consider 67. The bulk of value in those three days was 67 to 72 (and continues to be after day 4, Tuesday). If the most fair price at 70 does not find many buyers, and if the low of the 67-72 distribution fails to find buyers, then there's no way I'd look to 64s--at that point ES has rejected the high of the distribution, has traded through fair value, has traded through unfair lows, and so I would fully expect 60, the low of the entire group, to trade.

interesting and much appreciated. i had kind of given up on CLVNs since I had just been getting run over on them in my stats. I never know when to take them and when to avoid. i remembered those 67.5's having a never ending bid on friday and I was curious about what kind of reaction would happen there yesterday and was considering a buy but the low at 66.5 had almost 5k on the bid so I thought there was still more downside (if only a tick) and that 64.5s would be a nice spot to reverse...

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  #514 (permalink)
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1. Sold 1676.5 on 4.25 pt move up after 1 ticking the prior move hi at 1676.75 which gave a 4.5 pt pb. I wanted to sell the first move up to the 1675 LVN but waited to see how it would react and then missed selling 1676.25-would have been great trade and instant winner (but I wasn't on it). Second time up I debated whether the trade still had merit but given size of rotation and the 1 tick I took it. Scratched after 15 min and 1.5 MF vs 1.0 MA. Sellers showed little interest in taking it below the 1675 LVN and prices up here are being accepted so I bailed.

2. Long 1677.5- terrible trade location it seems but I have a bullish bias and ES opened OAIR above value and sellers couldnt even push to the 1675 LVN so I got long. Stopped after 4 min and .25 MF. Dang, well I got anxious and paid for it...

3. Sold 1677.25 vwap on 3 pt move after ES made new all time hi's by 3 ticks and was quickly rejected back inside IB and down to VAL. I am thinking context has majorly changed to downside for potential liquidation but who knows. First scale after 25 min and 1.25 MA. Really thought about bailing on it several times. It's been brought to my attention that the vwap is as flat as an ironing board today which does not make it an ideal location for trade entry. Second scale after 50 min. No third scale.

4. Long 1675 dVAL thinking that the upside is more likely than downside into the close. Profile looks complete to the upside I think but thats also due to the fact that the hi was so swiftly rejected. Hmm, instantly 6 ticks against me and now the low looks rather poor. Scratched after 19 minutes and .25 MF vs 1.5 MA though it looks like now some buyers are finally coming in. Would have been full loser.




Recap
ES opened OAIR above value in yesterdays upper distribution area and basically churned inside it all day with one fake breakout to the upside. Value and vpoc shifted higher. Price closed higher and inside value on light volume of about 1.1 mill. Profile shape is kind of balanced with two fangs if that makes sense. Based on the profile shape early afternoon I thought the market was ready to rip higher since there was a huge ledge around 1678 but after thinking about it it seems that it was probably due to everyone shorting under the assumption that the hi for the day was in. After the fake breakout I thought we would have a liquidation day on our hands but instead the market just churned so I still believe the path of least resistance is up but the market just was not ready to break out today.

I escaped with a meager profit today. Today sure seemed to be brimming with potential and we ended up with not even 8 pts of range and bush volume once again. That second trade I took was just awful but I got caught up in emotion and got scared i was going to miss the breakout. Before I put it on I was dreaming about taking my first scale and then letting my runner just go all day long, ha. Freaking thing only went 1 tick my way-classic. The other trades...not really sure what to say. Even my winner it seems after the fact was not good location nor in conception as the vwap was completely flat and indicative of balanced trading. The money trade was shorting the IBHI with stop at new HOD. The last long...prolly not a good idea but if I can take any solace it seems the market is letting me get out of trades for a scratch much more now and maybe that means I am making less-bad trades. Tomorrow is another day...

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  #515 (permalink)
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Economic data: claims, philly fed, LEI

ON Profile: Small 6.75 pt range on very light volume of 108k. The low is below pLo by a point and the hi is right at that 1678.5 volume ledge from yesterday. Vpoc almost exactly inline with yesterdays at 1677.25. Profile shape has a nice lower tail then a boxy middle and poorish hi.



ES balanced yesterday inside the prior days upper distribution area. Despite a failed upside breakout of all time hi's, sellers were unable or unwilling to step in with any force. Overnight ES sold off a bit below pLo but was rejected and now finds itself above pVAH. This lingering around near all time hi's is getting annoying! I anticipate another crack at a breakout today but given the low volume and yesterdays failure, can we expect a move with force and staying power? I am doubtful but until something changes we must give bulls the benefit of the doubt. As I write, ES currently trading 1679.75 hi... All time frames are very bullish.

Levels Above: 1680.5 all time hi, 1700

Levels Below: 1677.5 vpoc, 1672.75 CLVN, 1671.25 nvpoc*, 1666.75 CLVN, 1664.5 nvpoc, 1658.25 CHVN**, 1648.5***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR above value and sellers push but only get to 1677.5 and bulls take and ES breaks out but not very far.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR above value and pushes higher above pHi but fails and sellers step in and auction down to 1670 and then lose interest.

Hypo#3- ES opens OD up, get on board!

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  #516 (permalink)
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1. Long 1678.25 ledge from yesterday after ES opens OAIR above value and weakly sold off to print the 1677.5 nvpoc then bounced a bit. Targeting ONHI for first scale then breakout. First scale after 4 min and .25 MA. Would have gotten 2nd scale just now I think (520 traded) but I pulled it on the chance I have the tiger by the tail here and this is a real breakout so I am going to hold for a bigger target. Maybe this bites me in the ass, maybe not. It is now backtesting pHi, I hope this holds! It did (so far) and is now heading higher again. Took 2nd scale after 45 min for 7 pts- market has done nothing to tell me it is finished going up but this is my first big trade and i want to lock it in. I know its wrong but I want the satisfaction- as I write this its already trading 1.25 pts higher. Had I waited only another 8 mins I could have banked another 2 pts. Oh well, good trade!

2. Long 1683.5 dVAL/mid/eth vwap area with just a 1 lot. ES has gone switched from trend to balance mode but trying to play the long bias still. Scratched after 50 min and 1.5 MF vs 1.5 MA. Might try and re-enter lower. Would have been a winner.




Recap
Very interesting day today. ES opened OAIR above value and quickly broke higher to new all time hi's in what looked to be a trend day. It then morphed into a balanced p-shaped profile but then late selling at the close took price back inside pRange and nearly to the LOD before barely closing a tick above pHi. Value and vpoc shifted higher. Price closed modestly higher but below value. Volume was pretty pathetic heading into the closing fireworks but still only finished at a weak 1.17 mill. So we have a very shaky breakout with a daily candle that has a nice upper wick. I can't wait to see what ES does overnight and maybe we end up with an OAOR downside gap tomorrow with nice some selling follow through...or maybe the grind higher continues...

Really a great trading day for me, well actually one great trade. It could have been better and in the future it will be but I needed to just lock one in. A 7 pt winner feels nice. My morning plan and bias and trade execution just all came together perfectly and paid me which is great. I hope it happens again and more often! That second trade I think was a good trade but I didn't like how it kept getting rejected from rth vwap above and then went 1.5 pts in my face. Made an attempt to re-buy it a pt lower but no dice. Oh well. Tomorrow is another day, lets hope its a good one!

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  #517 (permalink)
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Nice trade buddy!

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  #518 (permalink)
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Economic data: none

ON Profile: ES traded in a 7 pt range and light volume of 150k so far. Profile shape is pretty boxy with a nicer looking low than hi. ES dipped below pLo by a few pts but found buyers at the VAL from wednesday's RTH session and the ensuing ON session. The hi is a tick below pVAL. All in all a generally quiet session.



I was hoping to wake up to the ES trading around 1670 this morning but oh well. Its friday in the middle of summer and no economic data is scheduled so my expectations for today are not high. As it stands we are set to open right around where we opened yesterday so inside pRange and below value. Yesterday we rejected off the 1677.5 vpoc from wednesday. Given that we broke higher and then failed I am not interested in a long off the open today. I'm pretty confused about what to do today to be honest. pVAL has nice confluence with an LVN and is also the ONHI so perhaps an initial push up to there by responsive buyers would be a nice place to try a short. Acceptance above there targets 1684.25 nvpoc and then new all time hi's. Acceptance below pLo would target 1670 mc vpoc and then 1667 CLVN where my bias would turn bullish again unless the selling is serious and on hi volume. Overall, the market is still very bullish but today my initial bias is to the short side.

Levels Above: 1682 ONHI/pVAL/LVN, 1684.25 nvpoc, 1688.5 pHi, 1700

Levels Below: 1677.5 pLo/wed vpoc/ledge, 1671.75nvpoc/1670.25 mc vpoc**, 1667 CLVN, 1664.5 nvpoc, 1658.25 CHVN, 1648.5 BAH***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR below value and pushes higher up to 1682 and fails then sells off to 1670.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR below value and sellers push but fail at ONLO and then buyers grind higher up to 1684 nvpoc.

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  #519 (permalink)
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1. Sold 1681.75 after 1682.25 ONHI/LVN/pVAL was printed to the tick and just taking a chance at this being the hi as I had an overall slightly bearish bias going into the day. Apparently I double clicked and got short 4 so scratched 2 right away. First scale after 4 min and 0 MA. On the open swing ES traded up to 1682 and sold off then it came back and printed 82.25 where I got short. It gave me a scale quickly and popped up to my entry. I think I will put my stop a tick above the hi as that will be the third or fourth attempt up there. Maybe I should let this ride, maybe not. So it just 1 ticked the hi and has pulled back a bit, maybe this trade will work still. Took a 4 tick stop after 48 min...

2. Long 1682.25 IBHI/ONHI/pVAL on 2.75 pt pb. Not sure on this trade as its second or third pb to this level but so far ES has been accepted inside pVA and is one time framing higher and just printed the vwap/mid very weakly so I figured I would try the long. Promises to be a very slow trade if it works. Negative is that ES has been rejected from the nvpoc. Scratched after 15 min and 1.5 MF vs .25 MA...no confidence trade = scratch...might try and re-add lower. Would have been a winner after 3 hours.




Recap
ES opened OAIR below value and spent all day grinding higher into the close. Vpoc and value roughly in line with yesterday but shifted just slightly lower. Price closed above value and on the hi at all time hi's. Volume an incredibly bush league 911k. Kind of a fugly toothy balanced profile shape. ES one time framed higher the whole day. All eyes on 1700 next week.

Pretty unexciting day today. I started the day with a bearish bias, took the trade and got a scale then stopped on the second lot. It was a good trade I think and I was pretty sure I would get the second scale but the market had other plans. Second trade would have been great had I held it but I didn't feel like sitting through 3 hours without a scale. I need to work on that because there will be more days like today ahead. All in all I end the week with a few more coins in my pocket than I started with so I cant complain.

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  #520 (permalink)
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Profiler View Post
Recap
Very interesting day today. ES opened OAIR above value and quickly broke higher to new all time hi's in what looked to be a trend day. It then morphed into a balanced p-shaped profile but then late selling at the close took price back inside pRange and nearly to the LOD before barely closing a tick above pHi. Value and vpoc shifted higher. Price closed modestly higher but below value. Volume was pretty pathetic heading into the closing fireworks but still only finished at a weak 1.17 mill. So we have a very shaky breakout with a daily candle that has a nice upper wick. I can't wait to see what ES does overnight and maybe we end up with an OAOR downside gap tomorrow with nice some selling follow through...or maybe the grind higher continues...

Really a great trading day for me, well actually one great trade. It could have been better and in the future it will be but I needed to just lock one in. A 7 pt winner feels nice. My morning plan and bias and trade execution just all came together perfectly and paid me which is great. I hope it happens again and more often! That second trade I think was a good trade but I didn't like how it kept getting rejected from rth vwap above and then went 1.5 pts in my face. Made an attempt to re-buy it a pt lower but no dice. Oh well. Tomorrow is another day, lets hope its a good one!

Good Job, man!!! Way to take it to them!

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  #521 (permalink)
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Economic data: housing

ON Profile: ES traded in a narrow 6 pt range on light volume of 145k so far. The hi is above pHi while the low is a tick below thursdays hi. Profile shape is kind of balanced with a boxier middle. Vpoc at 1689. Pretty quiet night.



So friday's spike into the close has been accepted so far as the ES balanced around it last night. Bulls certainly have the edge but I expect responsive sellers to make at least one attempt on the open to try and get back inside pVA. Failure to do so just clears the path for a trip up to 1700 where you would think sellers would be waiting that should be good for at least a 4-6 handle pullback but who knows. Should the bears manage to get back inside the pVA, then 1683 nvpoc awaits followed by the 1677 CHVN that the market has rejected as to cheap the prior two days. Value has been moving higher, all time frames are extremely bullish, ES is set to open OAIR above value/ OAOR...I can only envision taking a short with some evidence of aggressive sellers or clear rejection of pHi or ONHI.

Levels Above: 1690.5 pHi, 1694.25 ONHI, 1700**

Levels Below: 1688.25 ONLO, 1685.25 pVAH, 1683 nvpoc*, 1677.5 CHVN***, 1672.75 CLVN, 1670.25 MC vpoc

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR above value and responsive sellers make first push but fail around 1685.25 and bulls grind higher thru the day.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR above value and bulls push but fail at pHi/ONHI and sellers wack it down to 1683 or 1677 then lose steam and drifts higher.

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  #522 (permalink)
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1. Long 1686 after ES opened OAIR and has sold off weakly but decidedly down after touching pHi and then seemingly struggling around pVAH stopping a tick short at 1685.5. My overall bias for the day was long so preferred the long side. First scale is above ONLO which may provide some resistance. First scale after 5 min and .25 MA. Second scale after 41 min, filled around position ~350 in queue. Third scale given.

2. Long 1690.5 IBHI/dVAH/pHi on 2.5 pt pb from hi after it printed the 90s real weakly. ONHI at 1694.25 still not touched. ES rejected pVA and is working higher albeit very slowly. This might be the same trade as friday that i bailed after 15 minutes and would have taken 3 hours to play out so I will stick with this one to work on that (if it plays out like that). 23 min in it has gone 1.5 in my direction and repelled from dVAH and now back to entry. vpoc shifted a tick above my entry as well, not sure if I like that. Stopped after 1:16 min and 1.5 MF.




Recap
ES opened OAIR above value and balanced in a narrow range above prior value. Value and vpoc shifted higher. Price closed unch and inside value on VERY light volume of barely 700k. Just hardly anyone interested in these all time hi prices for some reason. The ball remains firmly in the bulls court as sellers are just unwilling/unable to do anything. All eyes on 1700.

So I made two trades today, first one worked out great and second one I got full stop and unfortunately at the bottom of the little sell off which at the time was dVAL and had I not had a position on I would have been interested in the long so that was frustrating but discipline is discipline and that will happen again so get used to it. The short off the open was viable but as I had a long bias overall I didnt take it. Not much else to say as there was not a whole lot of opportunity today. No data on the table tomorrow either so it may be more of the same.

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  #523 (permalink)
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Economic data: none

ON Profile: ES once again traded in a narrow 5.25 pt range on very light volume of only 119k so far. The low is just below yesterdays vpoc/ledge and the hi is above pHi as well as pONHI. Vpoc at 1693. Profile shape is pretty balanced. Really a very boring night it seems.



ES is set to open either OAIR above value or OAOR. Ball continues to be in the bulls court and 1700 seems to be the focus and today it might get there at which point we finally might see a sell response. My bias is to the longside, at least until 1700. Only with an obvious rejection from the ONHI, for example, would I begin to think short before 1700. Or an OD down of course. I will be quite surprised if the market sells off today before printing 1700 but the market can do all kinds of crazy things and if it does then 1670 would be my final target area. Volume is light so not expecting a whole lot of volatility, might just end up like yesterday. All time frames are extremely bullish.

Levels Above: 1693 pHi, 1695.5 ONHI, 1700**

Levels Below: 1690.75 nvpoc/ledge/ONLO/pVAH**, 1683 nvpoc*, 1677.5 CHVN**, 1670.25 mc vpoc***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR/OAOR and sellers push weakly to 1690.75 where buyers step in and grind to 1700. At that point, potential sell response back down thru the low.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR/OAOR and pushes higher to ONHI or 1700 where sellers enter.

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  #524 (permalink)
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1. Long 1690 ONLO/nvpoc/settlement/ledge on 3 pt move down. ES opened OAOR and only went 2 ticks above OPEN and has meandered its way down so I think context is bullish overall still but buyers werent in any rush to add to their positions. Instantly went 4 ticks against me now 2 ticks in favor but struggling for more. Stopped after 30 min and 1.0 MF.




Recap
ES opened OAOR just above pHi and met responsive sellers who knocked it down to just above pLo where responsive buyers lurked and spent the rest of the day balancing. Value and vpoc shifted overlapping lower. Price closed incrementally lower and inside value. Volume once again absolutely pathetic at a mere 800k. Just no interest from either side up here in the stratosphere. ES has now balanced for the last 2 days between 1686 and 1694. No real economic data of import is scheduled for the rest of the week but next week is chock full of big stuff so maybe this week is a throwaway.

One trade today...I think it was a good trade but it didn't work. I missed the long off the bottom as I was hoping pLo would get taken out by a tick or so but it stopped short- a recurring problem for me. Potential short off the dVAH but I passed on it even though the market was screaming balance day but I only wanted longs and to get a second scale I would have needed a trip back to lows which I didn't really think was likely. So yeah, not a whole lot to say about today, lets hope and cross our fingers for a more volatile day tomorrow. Maybe aapl can blow up or something.

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  #525 (permalink)
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One trade today...I think it was a good trade but it didn't work.

I considered a long at 90.50-.75 as well. But I wanted to first see some sign of buying. There was buying as the volume certainly picked up there, but it really kind of blew through the NVPOC--at that point I want to see it trade back above it and see buyers active above it, and that did not happen. When the market trades through a level like that without any positive movement in price I'm very wary.

You did get some positive movement but consider cutting your position in half if the market doesn't prove that your idea is working--for me that would have meant getting decisively above that VPOC, which it did not do at the time. Said another way, did you really need to see it trade all the way down to 88 (and 30 minutes later with only a brief favorable excursion) to know this trade wasn't working? Just some thoughts. I know it's easy to say after the fact, and I know you don't want to "mess with" trades too much and micromanage them, I get that.


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I missed the long off the bottom as I was hoping pLo would get taken out by a tick or so but it stopped short- a recurring problem for me.

Give yourself credit--you wanted to see the low trade, and it did not. So, you didn't take the trade. Nothing wrong with that.


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Potential short off the dVAH but I passed on it even though the market was screaming balance day but I only wanted longs

I know we are at all time highs, but we sold off to 86, saw a VPOC shift lower, and only late in the day made it to VWAP (and only briefly above it on the stop run to 91s). I also wanted longs early on, but ES traded below VWAP and below yesterday's VPOC most of the day--to me it was not exactly screaming anything, but the sellers were in control from the open and there was a definite skew that favored acceptance below 91. So, I'm surprised that late in the day, you still wanted only longs.

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Said another way, did you really need to see it trade all the way down to 88 (and 30 minutes later with only a brief favorable excursion) to know this trade wasn't working? Just some thoughts. I know it's easy to say after the fact, and I know you don't want to "mess with" trades too much and micromanage them, I get that.

As it was struggling and then got rejected at 1691 I did debate taking the whole thing off for a scratch actually but a 2pt stop placed it at 1688 which was monday afternoons low (where I puked out another long too actually only for it to reverse) so I thought there was a chance buyers might enter there again and i held on to it despite not seeing any confirmation that my trade thesis was really going to work. the trade is now etched into my memory now though so hopefully it will be useful in the future. thanks for the thoughts!

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  #527 (permalink)
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Economic data: housing

ON Profile: ES traded in a 8.25 pt range last night on light volume of 134k so far. The hi is above pHi but 1 tick below yesterdays globex hi. The low is above pLo by a pt so ES really explored almost all of yesterdays 24 hr session. Vpoc currently at 1691.75. Profile shape is pretty rectangular indicating not a whole lot of agreement on value.



ES has balanced between 86 and 94 for two days now and after having sold off to the low of that range overnight and found buyers once again we are faced with an OAIR above value near the top of the range, possibly even an OAOR. I continue to favor the upside for a breakout to 1700 but absent a motivated buyer after the bell we may end up with a third day of balance. My key level for today will be the 1695.25 ONHI- if ES can not reach or hold that level then I would expect another trip down to 1686 in an attempt to pick up buyers. Should buyers not be interested there, perhaps the 1683 nvpoc/mc VAL will be a decent long but I think the best spot would be around the 1677.5 CHVN. Should price be accepted above ONHI then 1700 is the target and potentially higher. I would expect that level to attract sellers for at least a 4pt rotation down but who knows, have to see what happens when it gets there. All time frames are extremely bullish.

Levels Above: 1695.25 ONHI**, 1700**

Levels Below: 1686 pLo, 1683 nvpoc, 1679.25 CLVN, 1677.5 CHVN**

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR above value and responsive sellers make first push to ~1691 mc VAH where buyers come in and grind it higher to 1700 where sellers possibly enter.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR above value and pushes to 1695.25 but fails and then auctions down to 1686 again and possibly lower.

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  #528 (permalink)
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1. Long 1683 nvpoc on 2nd touch after the first touch produced a 3 pt bounce then we came down again and only 1 ticked the low. Really tight 4 tick stop on this just trying to maybe catch a bottom. Vpoc at 1685 could be magnet for first scale. Obviously very strong selling day so far. Instantly went against me 3 ticks but only 1 ticked the prior 1 ticked low which is good so maybe selling is drying up down here, at least temporarily. First scale after 9 min and .75 MA. Second scale will be a bitch- has to get back inside pRange and above vwap by 2 ticks. Going to move by stop to breakeven at this point because if it goes back down then that will be third time test and no reason to hang on at that point. 38 min in and it has gone to pLo to the tick and been rejected but milling around 1685 vpoc. Took 3.75 pts after 64 min as some major absorption of over 5k at 1686.5 vwap. Good cover, would have been stopped otherwise.

2. Reversed short at 1686.5 vwap. Definitely some major selling absorption at this area with over 8k on the offer and a weak print of only 127 2 ticks above and overall day context is bearish and this is first test of the vwap so I took it. 20 min in and its gone 6 ticks my way to the 1685 vpoc but printing it real weakly, hopefully that isnt seen as too cheap now. There it goes, first scale after 24 min and .5 MA. Going to let my second scale ride to 1680 I think although 1677.5 might be eventual destination for this day. Covered after 52 min at 62's when market stopped at 1680.75 and stalled and I panicked that it might be LOD. Would have given third scale if stuck to rigid plan.

3. Long 1677.75 CHVN as ES is dripping down. This trade was part of my plan so I had to take it thought it doesn't feel good. First scale after 25 min and .25 MA. Second scale after 35 min, filled in queue in top 288. Didn't feel good but it worked. This thing actually gave a third scale late in the day.




Recap
ES opened OTD? ORR? Not sure which is which but after peaking 2 ticks above pHi sellers just laid into it and slapped it down all the way to 83 before buyers finally stepped in a bit before another leak lower. ES finishes with clearly lower value and vpoc. Price closes lower and inside value on volume that was significantly higher than the last few days but still only average overall of about 1.3 mill. It feels like ES got destroyed today because the range was pretty large but ES only finished down about 7 pts. Kind of a weird profile shape today with two distinct HVNs seperated by an LVN at the IBLO. ES has been struggling to go higher lately so maybe this is just a shakeout to clear some weak longs before making another assault on 1700.

Best trading day so far for me with this method!!! It feels good, I'm honestly drinking a beer right now to cap my day. Only one though because this day doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things and tomorrow is another day where the pnl resets to zero. Anyways, the day started off with me being caught flatfooted as the sellers just jumped on it almost from the get go. 10 pts straight down and I couldn't get on a short because it wouldn't pull back to vwap or anything else I could think of to sell. I won't re-hash the trades I did as I wrote them up above and they all worked and I think they were legit trades. Second trade could have been covered at my orginal desired price but I panicked and wanted to lock in the gain...need to work on that. Tomorrow is another day...

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  #529 (permalink)
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woohoo!

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  #530 (permalink)
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Economic data: claims, durables

ON Profile: ES traded in a 12.5 pt range on volume of 238k so far so both much wider/higher than whats been happening lately. The hi is just a few ticks higher than yesterdays settlement and the low is well below pLo and just above the 1671.25 nvpoc/1670.25 CHVN. Vpoc currently 1676.25. Profile shape is pretty fugly/trendy.



I was a bit surprised to wake up to spoos trading 1673 today as I thought sellers might have run out of gas yesterday but here we are. Sellers came out in force from the opening bell yesterday and knocked it down to the mc vpoc practically to the tick where buyers were found in enough quantity to produce a 7 handle bounce. ES is currently slated to open right around pLo so will that level hold again? Yesterday I bought it almost blindly, today I will take a wait and see approach. If buyers show up again the target will be the 1681 nvpoc and then 1685 HVN and then the 1688 area where ES really broke down yesterday. If buyers can manage above that then I imagine shorts will be scrambling for cover. Below pLo, we have a confluence of numbers around 1671- 1671.25 nvpoc, 1670.25 CHVN/1671.5 nclose which might be good for at least a bounce but the last time ES came down to the area it had to go to 1666 to find enough buyers to really bounce. Below that will be 1660.25 gap/1658.25 CHVN which I think is a strong buy considering there were enough buyers there last time for a 34 pt move up. All time frames are very bullish. I view yesterdays sell off as just a flushing of weak longs but who knows?

Levels Above: 1681 nvpoc*, 1685 HVN, 1688 breakdown area*, 1694.5 pHi

Levels Below: 1677.25 pLo*, 1671.25 nvpoc/nclose/CHVN**, 1666.75 CLVN**, 1660.25gap/1658.25 CHVN***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR below value and responsive buyers make first push higher but fail around 1681 and sellers knock it down to 1671/1666.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR below value and sellers push below pLo but fail and buyers grind higher through the day up to 1688 where sellers re-enter.

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1. Long 1676 after the OSLO was only taken out by 1 tick. This trade feels real uncomfortable for me especially after as soon as I put it on I expected a bounce right away but didnt get it and it made new low by another tick- thankfully only 1 tick. ES opened OAIR just barely above pLo and the open tick was the hi tick and sellers just didnt seem to be pressing below pLo. Will use 6 tick stop on this. First scale after 8 min and .75 MA. I am going to change my second target to 1681 nvpoc. I would be filled on my 80s now (13 min) had I kept my order there. Man printed 552 at 81 and no fill. Scaled after 23 min. Third scale would have been given if mechanical targets used.

2. Long 1679.5 vwap on 2.75 pt pb from hi. I think we have a poorish hi with almost 4k traded at top tick on the offer but it did happen at yesterdays LVN. First scale at vpoc which is lined up with yesterdays almost. ES being accepted back inside yesterdays value so hoping to stay inside of it. Vpoc just shifted to 1680.25-hmm... 23 min in its gone 4 ticks against vs 5 for but really struggling to get over the vpoc. Stopped after 34 min...

3. Sold 1685.25 pVAH/HVN late in day (30 min before cash close). Will use a 5 tick stop on this so 2 ticks above current hi. This is second time up this area so not really confident and I am pissed I missed it the first time which gave a nice rotation off of it. Scratched it after 8 min and it touched my stop then came back to break even. It did got 6 ticks my way right away though. Overall this was a poor decision to enter this trade I think.




Recap
ES opened OAIR/OTD and dipped below pLo twice but ended up building value almost exactly the same as yesterday. Vpoc too basically unchanged. Price closed essentialy unch as well, inside value on light volume of about 1.15 mill (but considerably higher vol than the 5 day MA). Traders basically decided that there was nothing to re-price today. Profile shape is pretty fugly with what I would describe as a poor low and a poorer hi.

I started the day off with a nice winning trade and then that sell off to new lows took me by surprise. I was kind of paralyzed by context analysis today. ES sells off and leaves a poor hi behind then fails at vwap (it did give some rotation/pause though) then drops out of prior range again so I was thinking they might really wack it but then take it back up to clean up the hi. Turns out they only 2 ticked the low and I had my mouse ready to buy 1675.25s but I just couldn't believe that they would take it down all this way only to 2 tick it. Turned out to be the trade of the day and never gave more than a 5 tick pb to let people in. I really wanted to sell around 85 but I'm sick today and ended up taking a nap and waking up to see ES at 85 and I almost just sold it blindly before checking out how it got there. So I didn't, looked things over then joined the 84.5 offer but no fill and it just dropped. Snooze you lose never more appropriate then there. I suppose I had some bitterniss left over from missing out on that which made me want to take that late short on the second trip up. Need to maintain discipline. So, could have been a great day today, it wasnt but I still have a few extra bucks in my account than I started with. Tomorrow is another day.

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  #532 (permalink)
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Economic data: michigan

ON Profile: ES traded in a 12.5 pt range on decent volume of 155k so far. The hi is 1289 which is right where the ES broke down on wednesday. The low is currently 1676.5 which is in between the last 2 days lows. Vpoc currently at 1686.25 but it might shift down to 1679.25 before the bell. Again, another fugly profile shape with no real consensus on value.



I was expecting ES to be trading ~1689 this morning when I woke up and had planned a long off 1685.5 for my first trade but the market had other ideas. ES has balanced two days in a row now with nearly identical value areas and vpoc. Today we are set to open near the low of the balance area and right around the mc vpoc of 1677.5. First test of 1677.5 produced an 8 pt bounce. Second and third test had to go a little lower down to 1675 to pick up buyers but they were there and yesterday closed 10 pts higher. Can we get expect buyers again? I continue to view the 1671 nvpoc/nclose/chvn area as an attractive target so I am leaning towards the short side off the open. However, if responsive buyers are active on the open then the first objective will be to get inside prior value and if accepted then up to VAH and possibly squeeze into the close. Longer time frames are very bullish, daily timeframe is balancing.

Levels Above: 1678 LVN/pVAL**, 1680.5 nvpoc, 1685.5 pVAH, 1689 ONHI

Levels Below: 1674.75 pLo, 1671.25 nvpoc/nclose/CHVN**, 1666.75 CLVN, 1660.25 GAP, 1658.25 CHVN**, 1648.5 pBAH***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR below value and responsive buyers make push to 1678 where sellers entered and knock it down to 1670 and possibly lower down to 1658.25

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR below value and sellers knock it below pLo to 1670 where buyers enter and grind higher.

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1. Sold 1678.25 pVAH/LVN based on my short side bias and poor ONLO and what looks to be decent absorption by sellers. Will use a 6 tick stop. Well it went 6 ticks against me now back to even. Took 4 tick loser after 10 min because it doesnt "seem" like its going to work. Would have been full loser.

2. Long 1678.75 vwap/pVAL after ES is being accepted back in prior value so looking for move back up through the value area. Took 1 tick loser after 10 min. Market isnt doing much and I am not int he right frame of mind to be trading now I think. Going to take a shower and re-evaluate after that. Would have been full loser as well.

3. Sold 1674 on 3.5 pt bounce off double bottom lows. Wanted to sell 1674.75 pLo but it looks like it may have stalled a tick before there. Aside from it being a double bottom, it does look good and its from a known area of interest. Scratched after 13 min and 4 ticks MF vs 2 MA. Will try to re-enter higher. Would have been full loser.

4. Sold 1675.75 vwap/mid. I guess this is the do or die area for bears. They don't hold this then the bottom holds. IBHI 2 ticks above, could have been filled there. Stopped after 24 min. Unreal, 0/4 today so far.

5. Sold 1682.25 LVN on 4.25 pt move. This level provided rotation yesterday and overnight so maybe it will again today. SO finally a trade goes my way, 6 ticks for vs 0 MA at the moment but not a whole lot of interest wacking the bid below the IBHI. If this goes back up to entry I might just scratch. First scale after 18 min and 0 MA. Scratched second lot after 48 min and 1.0 MA. Might re-add it higher.




Recap
ES opened OAIR below value and after taking out the weak's low proceeded to grind higher thru the day. Vpoc and Value shifted slightly lower as a result of the down move but VAH stayed at the same price it has for the prior 2 days so not much change at all. Price closed near the hi, above value on light volume of about 1.2 mill. Really a strong reversal off the bottom, nice long wick on the daily candle. Bears just can not gain any traction and the weak closes a mere 7 pts off all time hi's.

Man I traded horribly today. Market did *almost* exactly what I thought it would do and I lost money. I got spun around two times today which sucks. I'm kicking myself for not taking that long off the 1671 area and then the double bottom it left behind made me think a short was a good idea despite feeling the grind and expecting the grind higher per my trade plan pre-market. As far as positives go, by scratching some would-be full losers my day was nowhere near as bad as it could have been. I traded like a clown and only lost $225. I finished positive for the weak though which is good so I will leave on that note.

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  #534 (permalink)
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Economic data: homes

ON Profile: ES traded in a 7.25 pt range on light volume of 125k so far. The hi is 1 tick above fridays hi and the low is 1680.75 which is 1 tick below the mc vpoc of the 3 day balance we are in. Vpoc currently at 1683 and profile shape is nicely balanced.



I was thinking friday's squeeze into the close would be accepted and I would wake up to ES trading in the low 1690's this morning but I was wrong. Fridays squeeze was not accepted and instead ES is set to open inside of value. Nothing major on the calendar today but this week is chock full of very important stuff so today may be somewhat quiet but this week promises to provide some good opportunities to be sure. Friday's profile was kind of long and lean and doesn't give much to work with. Absent a highly motivated buyer/seller off the open I guess it would be best to look long near the 1678.5 nvpoc or 1675.5 VAL or possibly short near 1684.5 VAH. Longer time frames are very bullish while daily is kind of balancing just below all time hi's.

Levels Above: 1684.5 VAH, 1687.75 pHi, 1694.5 all time hi, 1700

Levels Below: 1678.5 nvpoc, 1675.5 VAL, 1670.5 pLo, 1666.75 CLVN, 1664.5 nvpoc, 1660.75 GAP, 1658.25 CHVN**

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR inside value and pushes lower weakly to 1678.5 to pick up buyers then grinds higher.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR inside value and pushes up to 1684.5 and fails then moves down to 1675 and possibly lower.

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1. Long 1681.5 after ONLO got taken out by only 2 ticks and it feels like sellers are struggling. Tried getting long 1681 but no fill. Had I waited another minute would have been filled there...Really low conviction morning so far. Vpoc shifted to my entry and lower profile does not look complete really so be interesting to see how this plays out- so far 4 ticks in my favor vs 4 ticks against. Scratched after 25 min. Might try and re-add lower. WOuld have been full loser.

2. Long 1678.75 after printing the 1678.5 nvpoc weakly. Stopped after 22 min, tried getting out for scratch on bounce up but it stopped a tick short. I might have just puked the bottom now as it 1 ticked my low... Yep, I puked a tick off the bottom.




Recap
ES opened OAIR inside value and spent the whole day chopping around prior value. Vpoc shifted incrementally higher while value put in an inside session. Price closed down marginally on very light volume of 943k. The daily candle is almost a perfect doji. In short, nobody had any interest in putting any money to work ahead of the fomc on wednesday. Tomorrow we have consumer confidence out which might move the markets a bit but I think its safe to expect the same action as today.

Frustrating day today that featured a lack of opportunity as well as a puke at the low. I knew there was potential I was puking at the low too which sucks. If only they had rallied 1 more tick higher before the last pullback and let me out for a scratch. To be honest I am not even sure if I should have entered the long at that nvpoc. I kind of thought the general rule of thumb is taking a trade off an nvpoc has good potential if its from a balance area different then the one ES opened in and that clearly was not the case today as we opened OAIR inside value. But friday was fresh in mind where it opened and went up the 1680.5 nvpoc and turned on a dime then went down 10 handles to another nvpoc and reversed 16. I was considering the short from IBLO as that had a lot of confluence going for it- LVN/ledge/vwap and had vpoc migrated down to the 1678.5 area I would have taken it but since it didn't I passed. It did give a scale but thats it. I'm a bit annoyed at losing some cash today because I wanted to finish this month strong and head into august with some good positive momentum. Still totally possible but I wanted a 3 day win streak to cap off my first month of 2 lots. Have to stay disciplined and take what the market gives though.

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Economic data: confidence

ON Profile: ES traded in a 6 pt range on light volume of 137k so far. For the moment, the hi is 1 tick above fridays squeeze into the close hi. The low is 2 ticks below yesterdays vpoc. Vpoc is 1686.5 which is 1 tick above pHi. Profile shape is generally balanced in an abstract way but with some teeth in it.



Market continues to confuse me- I had expected ES to trade in a tight 4 pt range around yesterdays vpoc ahead of the FOMC tomorrow but instead we have ES trading near the hi of the 3 day balance and potentially set to open slight above it which is pretty bullish. Despite that my first instinct would be to lean short on the open for a return to balance by responsive sellers provided it does not open OD up. I really don't expect much downside to come of it though- maybe the ONLO gets taken out by a point or so. If bears do not get in the way, I can see buyers auctioning higher up to the 1694 area where I would expect sellers to be waiting as I am assuming the market won't break higher out of this extended 3 week balance area ahead of the fed but who knows? Longer time frames are very bullish, daily time frame is balancing. Bias to the upside overall but maybe a short on the open makes sense.

Levels Above: 1687.75 fri hi/1688 ONHI, 1694.5 all time hi, 1700

Levels Below: 1682.5 vpoc, 1677.5 mv vpoc, 1670.5 fri low*

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR and fails above ONHI with responsive sellers taking it down to 1682.5 and ES rotates in a narrow range all day.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAOR and responsive sellers push weakly but fail around 1685 MC VAH and grinds higher up to 1694 where responsive sellers enter.

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1. Sold 1687.5 after ONLO taken out by 2 ticks only and we are at the top of a 3 day balance area. Stop will be new hi so 5 ticks. Traded my first exit within 2 minutes but no fill as only 36 printed. There it goes, first scale after 4 min and 0 MA. Came within 3 ticks of my second scale but struggling. It came within 2 ticks now and is bouncing. Moving stop to entry because I think if it gets there the trade is over. Current dVAH is 1687 so 2 ticks below entry. Maybe I get filled either way on confidence number in 4 mins. Stopped on final for +1 tick after 50 min.

2. Long 1683 after 1682.5 nvpoc tagged lightly and it seems that ES struggling to push lower. Its a balanced day so far with vpoc at 1685.5 so I think room to run for a scale at least. Stop below ONLO by a few ticks. Well it went up to the IBLO and turned around and printed lows again, weaker then before so far but I was hoping it would just go straight my way. So back up to IBLO again but only printed 1 tick above it very weakly so far. OK now 3rd attempt at IBLO... Scratched after 30 min and 7 ticks my favor when it just dropped. Will try to re-add lower depending what it does on new low. Would have been a loser so good scratch.

3. Long 1678 after printing 1677.5 MC vpoc weakly while only 1 ticking the prior low. This could be seen as second test with first one having already produced (only) a 1.75 pt bounce. Maybe I am totally blowing this context read: ES opened at BAH and has rejected that, cut through vpoc and is now targeting BAL which makes my long too early. So its gone 7 ticks my favor vs 3 against and created a serious ledge that I would think can't hold but who knows...First scale after 48 mins. Second scale after 1:22. Third scale given.




Recap
ES opened OAOR, 2 ticked the ONHI and proceeded to slowly sell off 10 handles before bouncing into the close. We end up with incrementally higher vpoc and value shifting slightly higher as well. Price closed marginally higher and inside value on light volume of 1.14 mill. This ended up being day 4 (or 5 depending how you look at it) of balance between 1686 and 1676 which makes sense considering the fed releases its decision tomorrow and that will be very important. Bias remains to the long side and for tomorrow I am thinking ES opens unch and rotates in a 4 handle range until the news and then all hell breaks out.

I made some good trades today. I think all 3 trades were good. First one I dont know what to say. Did I manage it poorly? Was it unreasonable of me to move the stop to break even? Up to that point I thought that if it popped above pHi again and up to 1687.5 it would mean my trade was toast so no point in having a stop above 1688.5 as that would just be wasted money. Turns out I get stopped at the hi of the move and then they wacked it. If I managed that trade poorly then I managed the next one good to make up for it with a scratch that would have been a full loser. It was acting funny and not wanting to give me a scale so I ditched it and my concerns were borne out. Last trade I got lucky, I originally wanted the long at 1679.5 pVAL/afternoon low but I ended up going out to pick up a lunch with ES trading 1681 and came back and saw the market trading 1678 so I bought it after watching it a few minutes. I'm happy to make up for the last 2 days of losses with todays gains. I hope tomorrow I can latch on to a few good ones and finish the month strong.

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...I made some good trades today. I think all 3 trades were good...

Second trade was a low probability trade in the current context. Just below the RTH open and in front of two or three clearly overlapping intervals where price did balance for a while before finally falling to the bottom of the range for the day.

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Second trade was a low probability trade in the current context. Just below the RTH open and in front of two or three clearly overlapping intervals where price did balance for a while before finally falling to the bottom of the range for the day.

What is an overlapping interval? Can you post a chart distinguishing these?

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Economic data: ADP, gdp, PMI, FOMC

ON Profile: ES traded in a tight 6.25 pt range on volume of 155k so far. The hi and low correspond almost perfect to yesterdays value area to the tick. Vpoc currently 1684.25 and profile shape is very balanced. Exactly what you would expect ahead of key economic data/fed.



So the morning data is out (aside from PMI) and the market is remaining in balance. ES has balanced for 4/5 days now in a tight 10 handle range roughly and a breakout is likely coming soon. I think that catalyst will come this afternoon on the fomc release. However, my bias is to the upside and I think there is a chance that buyers get impatient and start this morning. ES is currently trading 1685 which would be an OAIR inside value indicating market is still waiting for info. Should the market trade higher and build acceptance around and above 1687/1688 then I think that will be your cue to get long for a breakout at least up to 94 and possibly 1700 today. Alternatively, acceptance below and around 1677/1675 will be the cue to get short for a move down to 1658/1660.25 or possibly 1648.5. If neither of those things happen then we end up with another balanced day which would make it appear as though the non-farms report will be the key piece of info. So, many scenarios possible for today and no doubt an uptick in volatility will make things difficult to read but I'm just going to try and do my best.

Levels Above: 1688.5 pHi***, 1694.5 all time rth hi*, 1700

Levels Below: 1677.5/1675 BAL***, 1664.5 nvpoc, 1660.25 gap, 1658.25 CHVN**, 1648.5 BAH***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR and chops around inside value until FOMC then goes batshit crazy but ultimately resolves to the upside.

Hypo#2- Same as above but with downside resolution.

Hypo#3- ES breaks higher early up to 1694 then pauses ahead of fomc and breaks higher after up to 1700.

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What is an overlapping interval? Can you post a chart distinguishing these?


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1. Long 1688.25 on re-test of BAH/LVN after breaking out. Market acting heavy now so not real confident in the trade but I still think overall context favors buyers so I took it. Scratched after 8 mins. Reasons why I scratched- was not filled on first test that produced a 2 pt bounce exactly to IBHI to the tick where it was rejected; lingering just above for about 40 min and now below mid/vwap; market may just chop for next 2 hours until fomc. Would have been loser.

2. Sold 1684.5 IBLO after 3.5 pt bounce off lows. Garbage trade, can't believe I took it, they got me. Stopped after 2 min...

3. Long 1690.5 IBHI. HOD looks pretty blunt and it is just short of 1694.5 all time hi so I think bulls can target that. Otherwise I will be getting clowned fading IB trades from both sides today. Stopped after 2 min, clowned again.




Recap
ES opened OAIR and put in a volatile but balanced session. Value and vpoc shifted overlapping higher. Price closed basically unch and inside value on heavy volume of 1.77 mill- heaviest day in awhile. Daily candle shows strong rejection from the all time hi but is also a doji and sellers are just unable to shift value down.

I made 3 horrible trades today, I am so frustrated at the moment. I wanted a breakout today, market did breakout twice and both times without me and all trades I put on looking for some sort of a continuation of the breakout didn't work. The sale was just the worst as I was wanting to get long at 1681.5 initially but then decided to play for a break lower as earlier in the day ES broke higher and failed so I thought perhaps its time to test lower balance area 1675ish. V bottom, very little volume indicating no acceptance and it just blew right through me. Plain and simple I wanted to end the month positively and instead I end it poorly. I don't want to be too negative as its still my best month to date and I am enjoying trading 2 lots. Tomorrow is another day.

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No worries mate. Today was also my worst day and only day I would call "bad" in July, too bad we didn't end it better. It's FOMC day, and the liquidity is just absolute shit after the announcement, and it's very easy to get suckered in with the wild swings. From the low post-announcement at 81 up to 92, only about 170K traded--very thin. I'm considering just taking the next FOMC day as a vacation day. There may be opportunity but it is a very dangerous day. 9 handles down in 15 minutes, 13 up in 30 minutes, 13 back down in 60 minutes. For no purpose ... next Fed day I will be at the park I think

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Economic data: claims, ISM, ECB, construction

ON Profile: ES traded in a 10 pt range on slightly heavier than normal volume of 167k so far. The low is 2 ticks below the settlement so sellers lost interest after the close. The hi so far is currently equal to the all time rth hi of 1694.5 and 2 ticks above pHi. Vpoc currently 1692 in a very fugly shaped profile.



Over the past month the ES has put in hi's of 1693, 1694, 1694.5 and 1694 again yesterday. I've been waiting for a break above and tag of 1700 for some time but buyers have just been unable to or unwilling to make it happen. The last 4 days have progressively higher lows. Yesterday I anticipated a break out but it didn't happen. Today with the ES currently trading 1693.5 it would seem to be another golden chance. Some very important data is being released this morning and tomorrow is most important with non-farms so frustratingly we must consider the possibility that the market may again NOT breakout. I'll be watching for a quick rejection from the 1694.5 rth ath level or the 1695.5 globex ath to see if sellers once again emerge but I think you have to say odds favor the long side and move up to 1700 or more. Maybe we see responsive sellers off the open and depending on the strength/weakness of it we will be able to further gauge the breakout possibility. Longer time frames are very bullish, daily time frame balancing but potentially transitioning to bullish.

Levels above: 1694.5/1695.5***, 1700

Levels below: 1690.5 pVAH**, 1687 nvpoc, 1683 mc vpoc, 1677.5 chvn, 1670.5 CHVN, 1664.5 nvpoc, 1660.25 gap

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR above value and responsive sellers push weakly to 1690.5 where buyers enter and rip higher to 1700 and possibly further.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR above value and buyers push but fail around 1695 and sellers push down to 1683.

Hypo#3- ES opens OD higher, get on!

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1. Long 1696.5 on 1.5 pt pb after ES opened strong and popped above 1695.5 all time hi. Aggressive buy but I think the market is finally breaking out. Thought about waiting for 95.5 re-test but wasn't sure if it would get there. 20 mins in its only gone 2 ticks against while 8 my way but no fill on my scale. The 9am number seems to me to be the problem. Not sure what to do here. I think up is still the way but maybe a shake lower is in the cards first to clear the way as there is quite a ledge beneath my entry. Scratched 1 ahead of the number...Number comes out and it pops higher and gives my scale...dang. I will mark this in my log as a full winner for record purposes. Second and third scale given.

2. Long 1698.25 vwap. Ok, 1698.5s are real well bid and they just cant seem to take this down and they only printed 68 at 1698.00 so I decided to try a long given we have a double top and overall context is bullish. Going to use a tight 4 tick stop on this trade, 1 tick below the mid. Negative is that its a balanced profile and a flat vwap so im taking a trade right in the middle of balance. 12 min in and its gone 4 ticks my favor vs 0 MA and I am wondering if maybe I should just ditch this trade at breakeven if it goes back there? First scale after 17 min and 0 MA. 2nd scale after 30 min. Filled only in top 1140 in cue so def a lot of resting orders there ahead of me. No third scale.




Recap
ES opened OAOR with an upside gap on a breakout from balance into new all time hi's and didn't look back but also didnt exactly run away either and uncertainty over tomorrows non-farms may have been the reason. Value and vpoc shifted completely higher. Price closed well higher and just inside value right near the VAH. Volume was pretty light given the breakout to new all time hi's at only 1.26 mill. Profile shape ended up being pretty balanced. Overall, strong bullish day but it wasn't a full blown trend day by any means. Depending on tomorrows jobs number we could get a trend day though.

My first trade was solid, I just wish the market hadn't hesitated before the 9am number though or at least given me a scale before hand. So I took 1 contract off right before it for a scratch and the thought didn't even occur to me to put it back on after the number so that will be something to remember in the future. Also, I almost took this trade off fully for a scratch like 3 times because it just kept coming back to my entry and leaving a nice ledge below. Perhaps that was the first clue this day would not be a run away. Second trade worked beautifully, I'm just not sure it made sense to put it on as it was more of a price action trade combined with overall bullish context trade. Tomorrow is another potential big day so lets hope its a good one.

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1...Second trade worked beautifully, I'm just not sure it made sense to put it on as it was more of a price action trade combined with overall bullish context trade...

You seem to attach a negative connotation to price action here in relation to your approach. Why is that?

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You seem to attach a negative connotation to price action here in relation to your approach. Why is that?

If I do, its totally unintentional. Its not the style of trading I am trying to achieve here but I am a firm believer there are a million ways to consistently pull money out of the market and no one way is superior to another.

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If I do, its totally unintentional. Its not the style of trading I am trying to achieve here but I am a firm believer there are a million ways to consistently pull money out of the market and no one way is superior to another.

I do understand you. Many volume profilers would consider such a trade a poor trade because of its location right in the middle of the developing value area but when every Joe and Jane want to get this elusive 1700 kiss then your trade made a lot of sense. 1698.25 was the POC of the traditional TPO profile at the time of your trade.

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I do understand you. Many volume profilers would consider such a trade a poor trade because of its location right in the middle of the developing value area but when every Joe and Jane want to get this elusive 1700 kiss then your trade made a lot of sense. 1698.25 was the POC of the traditional TPO profile at the time of your trade.

The best location was obviously lower and a bit earlier in the 96s, but as the shot below shows, at this point there was a VPOC shift higher and a bit of a double distribution, albeit not the cleanest. Value was being created higher, and where Profiler bought was indeed below the most traded area, at the rejected prices (again, not strongly so but to some degree) in between.

So even though it was in the middle of the value area, it was a good location, because at that point, trading to the VAL would have shown a potential shift in value back lower to the 96.50-98 region, at which point a long may not be as desirable anymore. Just one way to look at it.


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Ok, 1698.5s are real well bid and they just cant seem to take this down and they only printed 68 at 1698.00 so I decided to try a long given we have a double top and overall context is bullish.

I'm not advocating straying too far from plan, but this is a great example of how you are identifying context and making decisions based on it, instead of just buying/selling at a LVN or HVN. In the past I don't think you would have taken this trade, and if it had not worked out, no big deal, but you seem to be developing more confidence in your ability to read things. Awesome job man.

I had a bit of a tough day, as I sold 1701.50 but gave up on it. My premise was a falling A/D, along with a weak Dow, along with weak technology, health care, and financial sectors (no new high from those 3, despite the new high and rotation in the ES, and these are the biggest 3 sectors in the index). Not a short I would normally take but they all lined up, but it just hung there for too long for me so I bailed for -2 ticks on it. Then, I bid 99 after 98.75 printed, and was in the first 200-300 for sure in the queue but did not get a fill and was too slow to hit 99.25 -- all in all a frustrating day but glad you did well buddy!

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instead of just buying/selling at a LVN or HVN.

LOL! I had to start somewhere right? But thanks, I do feel like I am making some significant progress. Still making my share of boneheaded trades but as long as I gradually weed those out while making enough good trades in the meantime to survive it should all work out.

Sorry you didnt get after it today but tomorrow should offer up some good opportunity to get it back!

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Economic data: non-farms, income/spending, factory orders

ON Profile: Non-farms are out and its apparently not that big a deal but slightly negative. ES has traded in a 7.75 pt range on volume of 216k so far. The hi is yesterdays hi to the tick while the low is yesterdays pullback low after the open test drive higher. Vpoc currently at 1702.25 and profile shape is balanced.



ES did little overnight in anticipation of the report and after the fact it has not done much either. Market broke out of prior balance yesterday to new highs cleanly albeit with little range extension. So far buyers are maintaining control by not allowing the ES to trade even below yesterdays vpoc. I had thought the report might have kept would-be buyers on the sidelines yesterday and allow them to enter today for a possible trend up day but with an OAIR inside value on tap that is unlikely but still possible. I remain overall biased to the upside and see the 1694.5 level as key for the bulls to maintain this breakout. I am bullish all the way down to 1675 really but it would be best (read: easiest for me to interpret!) to build a new clean balance area above 1694.5. What would make me want to sell today? If it opens OD down I would hop on board. Or if it trades above pHi/ONHI by only a tick I would consider a short. If price is accepted below 1694 with a steep vwap I would consider it. Lets see what happens...

Levels Above: 1699 nvpoc, 1703.75 pHi/ONHI

Levels Below: 1694.25 pLo/BAH***, 1692 ledge, 1686.75 CHVN*, 1683 mc vpoc, 1677.75 CHVN**

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR inside value and sellers make first push down to 1694 for re-test where buyers enter and grind higher through the day above pHi.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR inside value and fail at 1699 or pHi and grind lower to 1694 and possibly lower.

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What adds to the lack of conviction is that the Dow is trading almost entirely below yesterday's range, whereas the S&P has not even touched yesterday's low and is in range, and the N100 is trading in the upper middle to above yesterday's range. So, whereas S&Ps are confirming the break above balance yesterday, the Dow is not (so far).

Meanwhile, discretionary stocks continue to be strong today, whereas tech, fins, health care mostly mirroring the S&P, around flat, and energy and staples are quite depressed. So, it's a mixed bags across the board, both within the index and among other indexes. This leads to balance, rotation, and a general lack of conviction regarding direction. Hence the -10% vol and 5.00 range so far (-35% below 20 day median, yikes). ES looks bullish but still, it's a summer Friday, even with NFP. BTW, VIX is at 12.19 as of this moment, well into "oversold" territory and begging for a pullback in equities, but no evidence of a desire to do so yet.

(ES on top, YM on bottom)


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1. Long 1696.75 after printing the 96 ONLO weakly. ES struggling down here but low participating on both sides. Could have waited, ES traded 4 ticks against me and made new lows by only 1 tick. I think the trade is good now. Scaled after 20 min and 1.0 MA. Really struggling though to do anything. 37 min in ES came within 3 ticks of my second scale but just no energy here. Thinking of moving my stop to entry at this point. Traded my exit but no fill. This sucks, 90 min and back to entry. So my exit traded thru after 2:36 min but I pulled my offer hoping for a stop run. Didn't 1 tick it and I got tired of this trade so exited 1 tick lower. I think everything still works for the trade in my favor but I'm honestly just tired of it. Third scale given.




Recap
ES opened OAIR inside value and basically grinded higher at a snails pace through the day. Vpoc and value remain essentially unchanged. Price closed on the hi, above value and above pHi. Volume was totally bogus at a mere 938k. Yesterdays clean breakout remains intact. Next week has a dearth of economic data out so it might be more action like today.

I did 1 trade today only and it was a good one. I hesitated for a split second on the entry causing me to pay up a tick which actually ended up being pretty crucial as had I gotten in one measly tick lower I would have been in and out of the trade in about 45 mins with a chance to put the same trade back on for another go. Not going to worry about it too much as the most important thing is that I made the correct read. And hanging on to a trade for a couple hours and have it come all the way back to entry after not being filled at the exact top is good experience and will definitely happen again so I need to be ok with that. I was hoping for/expecting more volatility today but didn't get it. I head into the weekend on a positive note!

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  #555 (permalink)
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Every friday i log my trades into a spreadsheet with basic things like pnl and type of trade and reason i took it. When I switched to 2 lots a few weeks ago I made a new tab so I could distinguish pnl and expectancy between my 1 lot trades vs 2 lots. After looking at the cumulative results so far I thought it was interesting so I wanted to post. My sample size is small so far with only 39 trades but I only have 2 more full winners than full losers yet my pnl is +1800. I think that is pretty amazing and illustrates the need to cut your losers quickly and let your winners run. Currently I do a 2 pt stop with a 2 pt first scale and 4 pt second scale which only works out to a 1.5 to 1 R/R ratio but I am trying to let the second scale run further occasionally if I feel pretty confident about the trade. How many times have we all heard "let your winners run"? We all know this but this is the first time im actually seeing the fruit of that with my own eyes. When we latch on to a sick trade, we need to milk that for all its worth because you only need a few of those to make up for a whole bunch of little losers. Easier said than done but I will definitely be working on that.


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  #556 (permalink)
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Economic data: ISM

ON Profile: Very tight 3.75 pt range so far on very light volume of only 95k. The hi is 1 tick below yesterdays hi and the low is 1 tick above the IBHI which was pretty difficult to get through from below on friday. Profile shape is balanced with vpoc right in the middle at 1702.75.



Wow, ES did absolutely nothing last night! If you have any little loose-end projects to take care of around the house today might be the day to do it. What can we really expect today? ISM is at 9 so maybe the first 30 min nothing gets done and then that provides a little spark? ES is trending higher on all time frames and just broke out of prior balance on thursday and then maintained that on friday. My bias is still therefore to the long side. Combining the last 2 days of MP charts provides a potentially interesting set up for today with a long off the ledge that has formed at 1700.5 for a move up through pHi. If ES can not hold it then a trip back down to 1696 would be in order and that would make it the 3rd or 4th attempt down there so I am not inclined to buy it again but rather wait for lower prices. I am not interested in a short unless I see some sort of clear rejection, perhaps from a 1-2 tick of pHi. I'm guessing I will have the talk radio going early today...



Levels Above: 1705 pHi

Levels Below: 1700.5 MP ledge, 1697.5 nvpoc, 1696/94 BAL, 1692 ledge, 1686.75 CHVN

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR inside value and chops until 9am then pushes higher thru pHi and up to 1710 or higher.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and chops, pushes higher and fails above pHi then rotates back down to 1696 and balances.

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  #557 (permalink)
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1. Long 1700.25 7 min after the open based on the MP ledge that formed over the past 2 days. ES did nothing overnight but balance above this level so hoping it plays out. To be honest I don't think this trade will work but I am taking it because I think I have to. Scratched after 13 min and .75 MF vs 1.5 MA because it went further against me than I thought it would. Would have been full winner. Dang.

2. Long 1702.75 2 ticks above vwap after printing vwap weakly. So we have a double top at 1705 on the daily candle and vpoc for today above at 1703.75 which is also above IBHI and am thinking this pullback to vwap is a good entry for a eventual move higher. Will use a tight 4 tick stop on this which is 1 tick below the current move low at 1702. Stopped after 33 min and 1.0 MF.




Recap
ES opened OAIR inside value and put in an inside day with slightly higher value and vpoc. Price closed incrementally lower and absolutely atrocious volume of about 735k. Profile shape is almost perfectly gaussian. This makes the third day of balance in a row between 96 and 05 since the breakout above prior balance. Total range of only 6.25 pts. Brutal day.

It would have been nice if I had held on to the first trade but usually when a trade goes 6 ticks or more against me it seems they are losers so I ditched it for a scratch. I'm not sure if the trade was even valid for the reason I put it on. If anyone wants to chime in on that, be my guest. Second trade, clearly aggressive trade location but I only risked 4 ticks. Not much else to say about today. Hopefully tomorrow is better.

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  #558 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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... Combining the last 2 days of MP charts provides a potentially interesting set up for today with a long off the ledge that has formed at 1700.5 for a move up through pHi...

A ledge will become seducing when it forms 3 or more TPO's. As a rule of thumb, if you combine two days you need to multiply by two this number to get a significant ledge. A ledge of 4 tpo's wide is not that significant if you consider two days of activity. However, today a key number to watch was 1699.25 (fair price over the last two days) and 1697.25 as an unfair price.


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  #559 (permalink)
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Economic data: none

ON Profile: Another tight range of only 5.75 pts and light volume of 114k. The hi is a tick above pVAH while the low is below pLo. Vpoc currently 1699.75 and profile shape is kind of fugly balanced.



ES has balanced for 3 days now and last night ES just bounced between the mc vah and mc val as nobody is interested in paying to take this away from value at the moment. We are looking at an OAIR inside value again so today might be a repeat of yesterday. Bias is still to the long side and we now have a double top on the daily candle at 1705 which indicates a lack of excess/incomplete auction. Being a responsive trader has paid off the last few days and today looks to be the same.

Levels Above: 1705 double top**

Levels Below: 1697.5 ONLO/mc val, 1696.5-1694 LVN, 1692 ledge, 1687.5 nvpoc**, 1683 mc vpoc

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR inside value, pushes lower to ONLO and 1 ticks it then responsive buyers grind it higher thru the day, possibly above 1705.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR inside value, fails at ONHI then grinds lower thru 1696.5 to flush out late longs and bounces around 1692/1687.5.

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  #560 (permalink)
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1. Long 1697.75 after ONLO only 1 ticked. This is also mc val and my bias is overall to the long side. Wow, that trade didnt work at all. Stopped after 4 min and 0MF.




Recap
ES opened just barely OAIR right at pLo and trended down to begin the morning but then balanced the rest of the day. Value and vpoc completely lower. Price closed inside value and also back inside the prior balance area before the breakout. Volume was much better than yesterday at 1.1 mill but still light overall. Decent rejection from prior mc VAH.

Gosh, I made one trade that just went completely against me right away and then pussed out on some other ones. I dont know what to say. Today sucked, I blew it but I will say that once the move was over there was limited opportunity as the market just died in the afternoon. I'm still bullish overall, we are only 11 pts below all time hi's but maybe the market needs to come down to 1687 nvpoc or 1683 mc vpoc to bring in some more buyers before heading back up and taking out the double top at 1705. Today is a day to throw away and tomorrow is a new one.

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Hey Profiler,

Do you watch the DOM when you enter a trade? I was looking at 97.50 yesterday and I thought that buyers were much interested, but the offer on the 95.75 kept refreshing aggressively. Perhaps they took the other side of your trade as well.

“Happiness is the meaning and the purpose of life, the whole aim and end of human existence.” Δ

“There is no path, but only a fool wouldn’t follow it.”
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  #562 (permalink)
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Hey Profiler,

Do you watch the DOM when you enter a trade? I was looking at 97.50 yesterday and I thought that buyers were much interested, but the offer on the 95.75 kept refreshing aggressively. Perhaps they took the other side of your trade as well.

I watch the DOM like a hawk when its near a level that I am interested in trading otherwise not really. I think everyone and their mom was on the other side of my trade yesterday

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  #563 (permalink)
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ON Profile: ES traded in an 8.75 pt range on heavier volume of 164k so far. The hi is yesterdays close so sellers immediately took over after the bell. The low is below pLo by 3.5 pts so a good amount. Vpoc currently at 1688 and profile is b-shaped.



Yesterday ES broke out of its 3 day balance and headed lower into the prior balance area where it bounced off the VAH. Sellers were able to muster a close just inside the prior BAH but no more. Overnight sellers re-appeared and took it below pLo where some buyers were lurking and ES is currently trading right at pLo. So we are looking at a possible OAOR or OAIR below value open which indicates bears have the ball for the moment but at the moment I am viewing this as a short term pullback within the longer term uptrend and therefore still interested and even favoring longs. Yesterday I really wanted to buy the 1687 nvpoc but it stopped short and produced an 7 pt bounce. Its obviously been tagged in the ON session already and the low looks poor-ish so I am not so sure if i still want a long there. Maybe I will take it, depends what happens real time. Otherwise, I think the 1683 mc vpoc and 1677.5 CHVN/mc VAL offer good opportunities for longs. If bears really show some muscle and plow right through those levels than my thoughts turn from pullback to perhaps intermediate term top. To the upside, the 94-96 level is key. If it can break back above that level then I look for 1701.75 mc vpoc and 1705 double top all time hi. So...longer time frames are crazy bullish, shortest time frame is potentially bearish.

Levels Above: 1692.5 nvpoc, 1695.25 MP single/BAH***, 1701.75 mc vpoc*, 1705 ath*

Levels Below: 1688.75 pLo, 1687 nvpoc*, 1685.25 ONLO, 1683 mc vpoc***, 1677.5 CHVN/mc VAL**, 1670.5, 1666.75 CLVN/1664.5 nvpoc*

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR/OAIR below value and bulls make first push but fail around 1692.5 and bears wack it lower to 1683 where buyers enter and grind higher back up to 1695.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAOR/OAIR below value and bears give it ol college try but fail at 1687/83 and buyers rally it up to 1695 and potentially higher.

Hypo#3- ES opens OD down and we end up with a trend down day.

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  #564 (permalink)
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I watch the DOM like a hawk when its near a level that I am interested in trading otherwise not really. I think everyone and their mom was on the other side of my trade yesterday

Hey profiler, i sure know that feeling!!!<VBG>

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  #565 (permalink)
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1. Long 1687.25 vwap/OPEN on 2.25 pt pb. Ok so ES opened OAOR and headed down to ONLO but failed to the tick then pushed higher into pRange but only by a 3 ticks which is a definite negative for this trade but I thought I saw some absorption on the footprint (either that or it is sellers wacking the bid). Stopped after 1 min, that didnt work. Would have been full loser.

2. Long 1682.75 (off 1683 mc vpoc) in some pretty nasty selling so stepping in front of a bus. Tons of volume printing here a tick below my entry, not good. Scratched after 8 min and .5 MF vs 1.0 MA and will try and enter lower. Would have been full loser by a tick if I puked which I might have.

3. Ok long a pt lower at 1681.75 from above trade and I might just be totally on the wrong side of the trade today. 27 min vpoc has now shifted to entry. I've almost scratched this trade like 10 times and probably should have, at least to re-enter lower. Ok took a 6 tick scale after 40 min because they just kept reloading the offer ahead of my 8 tick exit. My second scale will be quite difficult and will only be filled if the day has changed which I don't think it has. 90 min in it has since been rejected from vwap at 1684.25 which is to be expected on first test and is now right around my entry. Not sure whether to ditch this at entry or let it ride? Lettin' it ride. Second scale after 2:25! Third scale given.




Recap
ES opened OAOR and pushed lower to just below the 1683 prior mc vpoc where buyers were found and then grinded higher slowly throughout the day. Value and vpoc shift completely lower once again. Price closed lower, below pLo and inside value. Volume was weak at 1.16 mill. Profile shape is double distribution. Yesterday we came down to the mcVAH and bounced 7 pts. Today we came down to the mcVpoc and bounced 7 pts. I am still overall bullish but it seems like maybe it needs to go lower yet to really flush out late longs and provide a powerful bounce back to hi's.

My first trade was bad. The bounce off the ONLO to the tick had me thinking long but that made it 3 bounces off that low to the tick including the ON session so that combined with an OAOR open and just a weak 3 tick push into pRange should have gotten me short or at least not long. Oh well, I got out for only 4 tick loss so no big deal. Second trade I stepped in front of a bus and I like to do that but maybe I should have waited just a bit longer to step in front of this one. Third trade was a better entry but even then I could have finessed it and gotten in at 81 for really good trade location but I was afraid of the train leaving the station without me. Sucks I did not get that afternoon long which would have made it a nice day for me. @josh, what did you do today around the 83 area, were you looking long or did you come in short (and possibly reverse)? i saw awais moved his level down beneath it to 80.25 to 82.25 but I dont understand why, any thoughts on the matter? Tomorrow is another day.

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  #566 (permalink)
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Sucks I did not get that afternoon long which would have made it a nice day for me. @josh, what did you do today around the 83 area, were you looking long or did you come in short (and possibly reverse)?

I was looking to short in the morning, but I really thought we'd see a 90 or 91 print so I was not short when the market came down to 83. I had 82.25 to 83.50 marked, and to be honest I chopped around in there a bit before finally getting it.

I got flat 83s after buying 81s. Then after 84.75 printed and it came back down to 82, I took a quick short and got long at 83s. It was a lovely setup with a minimal effort by sellers, but even that got absorbed at 82. I missed my bid but just jumped in at 83.25 because when you see it lazily rejected like that, in the middle of the day, you can bet they will sucker in some shorts on the way up for a ramp into the close. Low volume moves are the best, because it demonstrates lack of effort to stop it, and they are usually very directional, so you get people chasing, which is what you want when you are in the trade (we always want a rotation to get in, but we'd prefer not if we are already positioned ). I scaled 86 and 87s, and got back in long 86.25. I also wanted to see 85 print and had a bid there (as you had at 84.75) but knew that it would be worth it at 86 still, so I got long. Held 1/2 into the close and got flat 92.75 earlier this evening. (posted a chart of this later activity in the spoo thread earlier this evening)

All in all a sound confirmation of fair value for bulls at the VPOC area of the late July distribution, another lackluster effort from the bears, and unless we see some serious selling at 95, another leg up awaits.

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  #567 (permalink)
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Economic data: claims

ON Profile: ES traded in a 7.75 pt range on good volume of 156k so far. The low is 1 tick below the settlement so bulls resumed control instantly after the bell. The hi so far is 1695.5 which is 1 tick above an MP single and right in that 94-96 breakdown area from the 3 day balance. Vpoc currently at 1692 and profile shape is rather fugly.



Yesterday ES dipped down to just below the 1683 mc vpoc and found buyers and grinded higher into the close. After the close, buyers continued doing what they do. We are currently set to open with an OAOR of about 6 handles to the upside in a very interesting area. In a perfect world, ES will open and one tick the 1695.5 hi which I will short and then sell off down to 1688 to close the gap where I reverse and get long for a move back up to and through 1695.5 and possibly 1702. Basically the bulls have the ball and I am interested in a short off the open or basically not at all unless some aggressive sellers really make their presence known. Its possible bulls will just take charge right off the open and ramp to 1705 double top all time hi and break out again. Longer time frames are very bullish. Daily time frame is balancing to bullish.

Levels Above: 1695.5 MP single/ONHI/CLVN***, 1702.5 nvpoc, 1705 ath**

Levels Below: 1692.5 nvpoc, 1689.5/1688 pHi/close**, 1687.25 nvpoc, 1684.75 LVN, 1680.5 pLo**

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR and fails at ONHI, pulls back to 1692.5/1688 then grinds higher into the close to 1702.5.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAOR and pulls back to 1692.5 and drives higher thru 1705 in trend up day.

Hypo#3- ES fails at 1695.5 and grinds lower all day.

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1. Sold 1696.5 1 tick above ONHI and in the 94-96.5 LVN zone from the breakout looking for responsive sellers back to 1692.5 nvpoc at a minimum and hopefully 1688 level at best. Instantly my favor and printed my exit after 3 min but no fill. Now all the way back to entry and new hi by 1 tick...not cool but the fact it only 1 ticked is good. First scale after 13 min. Responsive selling not as forceful as I hoped (never is). Second scale after 21 min- filled between 450 and 503 in the cue. This might be a trade that I should hold for more, even 88s potentially. Should have hung on...third scale given.

2. Long 1685.5 LVN after missing the 84.75 that I tried joining the bid on. This might be a trend down day so pretty scary. ES blew right through the 88 level which I did not expect. 26 min it has not given me a scale yet but printed my exit very very weakly, frustrating. Took a 6 tick scale after 30 minutes because it is struggling here and just wanted risk off. Had I waited another 2 minutes would have been filled. Now it has to get thru IBLO and vpoc to give me my second scale which will be difficult I am guessing. Second scale after 55 minutes. Ended up taking 0 heat on that trade. Third scale given.

3. Long 1695 vpoc/1st vwap. Ok, only going to give this trade 4 ticks to see if it works but we have a very poor hi above and value being built above dVWAP and I think this can run into the close. If I am stopped on this I will take another stab at a long at 1692 vwap. This was a really hard buy for me. Scratched after 11 min because its feeling a bit heavy and I think I can finesse this a few ticks lower. Went 4 ticks MF vs 2 MA.

4. OK re-entered 1694.25, same deal. 4400 lot in the cue a tick below which makes me think I should scratch this since very likely that will trade thru to see if its real. 18 min in it has gone 7 ticks my way and 1 against but really struggling and not doing what I thought it would. Scratched after 27 min, unreal. Would have been loser.




Recap
ES opened OAOR with a nice upside gap and was immediately sold only to be bought right back up starting at the LVN separating yesterdays double distribution. Volume and vpoc shifted completely higher. Price closed higher and inside value. Volume was decent at about 1.3 mill. Kind of a weird p-shaped profile with a very prominent vpoc where almost 100k traded. Basically we have a strong rejection once again of the prior balance area and then filled in the LVN between 94-96. I think the bias is still very much to the upside but I am surprised it didn't squeeze into the close.

Well I made two awesome trades today and then didn't let them run. Today could have been an amazing day. I will take solace in the fact I made good trades but the need to let winners run is something I am trying to work on and today would have been a great day to put it to the test. Surprised that the 88 level didnt hold better on the way down but I guess in the context of the strong responsive selling off the open it makes sense. Tomorrow is another day.

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  #569 (permalink)
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Economic data: none

ON Profile: We have a 9 pt range on light volume of 125k so far. The hi is just 1 tick above yesterdays very prominent vpoc where almost 100k traded. The low is 1.5 pts above pLo. Profile shape is very odd- one long and slender rectangle with 2 prices jutting out right in the middle at vpoc of 1689.5 which corresponds to pVAL.



ES had an interesting day yesterday. Sellers were very interested in defending the 1696.5 level, in the morning they were able to knock it down 12 pts, in the afternoon they were only able to prevent a break higher. I was anticipating futures to rise slightly last night and then backtest the 1695 vpoc off the open for a move up to and through 1705 but quite the opposite happened as sellers took control- so they really are defending that level and market is unable to push back inside that upper balance area. We are looking at an OAIR open right around the pVAL. My first instinct is to look for responsive buyers to make the first push but if they are unable to push above the 1692 LVN then perhaps sellers will own the day and a move down to 1680.25 and potentially lower is in the cards. On the contrary, if value can be established above 1692 then I look for 1697 to be tested and broken. Longer time frames are very bullish, daily time frame is balancing.

Levels Above: 1692 LVN, 1695 nvpoc, 1697 pHi, 1702.5 nvpoc*, 1705 ath**

Levels Below: 1684.75 pLo, 1680.25 lo, 1677.5 CHVN, 1674.75 LVN, 1670.5 Lo, 1666.75 CLVN, 1664.5 nvpoc

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR around pVAL and buyers make first push to 1692 but fail and then push lower down to 1680 and potentially lower to 1670.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR around pVAL and sellers push to 1684.5 pLo and 1 tick it where buyers grind it back up to 1697.

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1. Long 1690.25 pVAL in what is a very rotational day so far with a poor hi. I wanted to try a long at 1688.5 but it stopped at 1689 and then bounced a few times and hasn't gone below 1689.75 since. First scale after 7 min and .25 MA. Stopped out on 2nd lot for 3 pt loser, stop ran away from me on that one. The instant rejection from vwap/vpoc to the tick maybe should have made me get out at entry on that one.

2. Sold 1689.25 IBLO/vwap/mid. Strong bounce off lows and very V-shaped so I am thinking the low is in but maybe this will be good to at least get risk off at 1687.5 vpoc. Scratched after 29 min and 1.75 MA vs .75 MF. I think this grinds higher into the close. Would have been a loser.




Recap
ES opened OAIR and pretty quickly ran up to the 1696.5 resistance area for the last few days and then the bottom fell out but those pesky dip buyers are still present. We end up with lower value and vpoc. Price closed lower and just below VAL which is interesting. Volume was actually heavier than average lately at 1.49 mill. So over the last 4 days we have clear rejection from 1697 as well as 1680 with mc vpoc of 1687.5. Week over week we have value putting in an inside session. I still favor the long side.

There was some good opportunity today, albeit not a lot, and I was unable to capitalize on it. As mentioned before, I love it when the market goes thru a level by only a tick or two but when it stops short I am rarely able to get on board and today was no different with not being able to short the 96 level. Its a weakness. The long I took was ok, it gave me a scale but I sure managed it poorly after that. In my mind I was kind of fixated on a balanced day between 89 and 96 with the hi most likely to be taken out so I held on for the full 2 pt stop but then it kind of blew right through there after bouncing a few ticks and I ended up taking a 3 pt loser on it. I deserved it. I didnt think the 1683 mc vpoc would give such a response today but it sure did and as a result I missed out. I will say I made some serious progress in not shorting that thing until the vwap. In the past after such a v shaped bounce I would find some level, however minor, and say "oh, 4 pt bounce into ONLO, sell it" and I briefly considered a short at the 1686.25 ONLO today but passed and I am thankful I did. Even the short I did take could be considered bad still. There was confluence of 3 things right there but vwap had flattened out which nullifies that and the MP profile looked pretty balanced and the mid sucks generally anyways so really all I had was IBLO which isnt great and dVPOC below which is ok. Well, not how I wanted to end the week but overall it was a positive week, I feel like I am progressing and I look forward to next week.

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Economic data: none

ON Profile: We have a 11.75 pt range on heavier than normal volume of 169k so far. The hi is 2 ticks short of fridays vpoc and only 3 ticks inside its VA while the low is 1675.25 and I can't really attribute that to anything. Vpoc currently 1679. Profile shape shows very nice rejection from the hi and some lingering at the low. Very distinct LVN around the 1680.5 area which was last weeks low.



We have a potentially very exciting day today with ES set to open with a gap down of about 7 points that is below last weeks low of 1680.5. My bias is definitely to the downside and I think its possible we have a big down day in the cards but we won't know until the bell rings whether this weakness persists or buyers see value in it. Ideally I would like to see responsive buyers make a weak push up to 1680.5 and fail then a very aggressive seller steps in and quickly knocks it down to 1670 where it rotates a bit before pushing further to 1664 and possibly slides into the close. If buyers can push beyond 1680.5 and break above 1682.5 pLo then my thesis is shot and perhaps we end up with a slow grind higher. Longer time frames are very bullish but the short term is balanced and potentially bearish.

Levels Above: 1680.5 pWkLo**, 1682.5 pLo*, 1687.5 nvpoc*, 1696.5 rejection area

Levels Below: 1675.25 ONLO, 1670.5 lo**, 1666.75 CLVN, 1664.5 nvpoc**, 1660.25 Lo, 1658.25 CHVN**, 1655 CLVN

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR and responsive buyers push to 1680.5/1682.5 and find rejection with sellers auctioning down to 1670 and possibly much lower.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAOR and sellers wack down to 1675.25 ONLO but fail and buyers grind higher up to 1687.5 nvpoc.

Hypo#3- ES opens OD down and we have a trend down day.

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  #572 (permalink)
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1. Sold 1682.5 pLo after OAOR gap down open and minimal push lower with responsive buyers coming in. This is also the VAH from the ON session. Ok this massively sucks but my internet just went down with the short on right after I tried to manually stop my self out but missed and ES 2 ticks above my stop... Ok internet back up and I got filled on my stop thankfully as market did not run away. No trades for me for next hour or so until I get some confidence in my connection.

2. Sold 1686.75 after the 1687.5 nvpoc traded weakly and this is also pVAH. Tried scratching instantly because this market seems to want to go higher. Scratched after 5 min and 1.0 MA. Would have been full winner with 6 ticks heat.

3. Long 1684.75 dVAL in a very slow and grinding market with a poor-ish double top hi and vpoc above at 1686.75. Scratched after writing that out. Would have been

4. Long 1683.25 dVAL after this level has been tested twice producing two bounces and finally came down for third test and only taken out by 2 ticks which stopped by 1 tick short of pLo so I got long for a rotation back up to dVAH. Think I can get away with a 6 tick stop here as more than a few ticks below pLo is a slippery slope and trade is wrong. 19 min in it has gone 5 ticks my way and only 1 tick against but its just lingering. Now it went another tick in my favor but only printed 19, if this goes back to entry and I am scratching. Scratched after 32 min. Would have been full winner.




Recap
ES opened OAOR with a downside gap and pretty much just sprinted higher for the gap close then died. Vpoc basically did not move while value shifted lower. Price closed unch and inside value on very weak volume of about 950k. Profile shape is a classic p indicating short covering perhaps from all the overnight traders and then lack of volume meaning nobody else participated. Once again, for now the low 80's are too cheap and mid 90s are too expensive as the ES balances.

Well I must say I totally blew it with my expectations for the day. I really thought today would be a big down day and it was anything but. Had I not been so biased, could/should I have gotten long off the open? Tough to say but I think no. ES had found balance overnight and was to open just below the eth vwap so maybe that was a clue it wasn't going to get slammed right from the start. Then it printed down to the ON vpoc to the tick very weakly and bounced and never looked back. Usually with an OAOR gap down I like to see the market make another stab at taking out the OSLO and if it only does it by a tick or two then I fade it but today it never came back. So I had the one loser and then a couple scratches that would have been winners but I scratched. I hate slow trading. Or rather when it takes forever to get even a first scale. I suck at it and don't like it but this is how the market trades in summer so i need to deal with it. All in all a crappy day that I made crappier but overall a small loss so its ok. Tomorrow is another day.

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  #573 (permalink)
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Economic data: retail

ON Profile: We have a 7.5 pt range on volume of 157k so far which is decent. The low is yesterdays vpoc to the tick and the hi is in that weird upper area of fridays profile that was the scene of rejection but also the just shy of the VAH from the 4 day balance area we are creating. Vpoc currently at 1691. Profile shape is pretty fugly with no apparent consensus on value.



So responsive buyers stepped in on the open yesterday and ripped ES higher as apparently the 1670s and low 1680s are just too darn cheap. Overnight the bulls continued higher up to the mc vah where responsive sellers were waiting. ES is set to open with a small gap higher and though my bias overall is to the long side I am wondering if a long off of the nvpoc makes any sense given its in the middle of the balance area and in fact the mc vpoc and the market is trading in a very responsive nature lately as opposed to initiative. I guess I will cue off the response if/when it approaches the ONLO. If further business is to be done then 1683 ledge from yesterday will be the target and below that could get slippery. The key area above is the 1696.5 area and unless I see some strong volume pushing up to there I will be looking to fade it. A break above that targets 1702.5 nvpoc then 1705 ath.

Levels Above: 1692.5 fri VAH, 1696.5 rejection level***, 1702.5 nvpoc, 1705 ath

Levels Below: 1686.5 ONLO/nvpoc**, 1683 ledge, 1678.75 pLo*, 1675.25 pONLO*, 1670.5 lo

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR and responsive sellers push to close gap/nvpoc and buyers auction higher up to 1696 where sellers respond and ES closes in middle.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAOR and pushes higher but fails around 1692.5 then sells off to 1683 to pick up buyers again and close in the middle.

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  #574 (permalink)
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1. Long 1687 after weak 1 tick of ONLO and overall bullish bias. This is in the middle of mc balance area though. Gosh a lot of volume printed at my entry and its now vpoc and doesnt look like it hold although it went 7 ticks my favor. God damn it, took 3 pt stop because I fucking didnt stay disciplined. Horrible trade management, I deserve an F for this trade.

2. Sold 1689.5 just below IBHI as ES is barreling higher and stopped 2 ticks shy of IBHI and we have a very wide IB so if it pops not expecting to go that far. Tons of volume printing the tick below, going to try and scratch and re-enter higher if it 1 ticks the hi. Pff, missed the scratch now printing hi. Scratched after 10 mins, now we have a double top. Would have been a loser.

3. Sold 1693.5 after ONHI was 2 ticked and 1694.5 is the mc vah. I joined the offer at 94.25 but no fill. Market strong like bull so this def a fade. I think I can get away with a 6 tick stop here so I went for it. If stopped will try again around 1696.5. Took 6 tick scale after 20 min and .25 MA as it touched my exit twice but super weak for only 43 contracts and really seems to be struggling so I just wanted risk off. 50 min in we have a vpoc shift up to 1692 as some big buyer just wont let it fall. Now its trading 1690.5 IBHI and I need it to go another point to get my second scale but it may not be able to push through. So now 1:47 into this it didnt push through went higher back thru vpoc but only by a few ticks and is lingering. Gun to head this rips higher into close but who knows. Closed 2nd lot +1 tick after 2 hrs.




Recap
ES explored almost the whole 5 day balance range today but finished only incrementally higher from where it opened. VAL stayed the same but VAH expanded higher along with vpoc. Price closed marginally higher and inside value. Volume was much higher than the past few days at 1.33 mill but merely average over a longer time frame. Profile shape is kind of a double distribution with a long thin zone in the middle. Daily candle is a doji. So we learned that once again that buyers still exist in the low 80's and sellers still lurk in the mid 90's. Until someone decides to either pay more or sell for less we are stuck in the range.

Man I totally blew trading today. First trade had a good premise but once it was on I had warning signs go off but ignored them and then violated my stop by a whole point. It gave me an out at 95, my original stop but I pulled it because I just kept thinking it was bottoming. I blew the long off the bottom because it stopped short of what I wanted to see. The first short was poor, the second was good but managed poorly. So I am in a 3 day losing streak which sucks but one ok day can easily turn that green so stay positive and make good trades.

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  #575 (permalink)
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Economic data: PPI

ON Profile: ES traded in a 7.25 pt range on light volume of 118k. The hi is just 2 ticks above yesterdays vpoc while the low is in the neighborhood of yesterdays VAL. Vpoc currently at 1688.5. Profile shape is generally balanced with a stronger hi than lo.



ES is just reeking of balance lately and today appears to be no different. Biggest picture we have clearly established 1686.75 as the fairest price to do business in the area, with the next fairest price being 1620. Smaller picture, ES has been in balance between 1679 and 1697 over the last 6 days with 1687 being the fairest price. It is pretty rare for the ES to balance so long in one area so a breakout is likely to occur. However, as we looking at an open right around the 1687 mc vpoc, today does not look like that day. Therefore, unless a strongly motivated participant enters the auction off the open, the playbook will be to fade the extremes of said balance. Should value be accepted outside of the range then we finally have a breakout and get on board! Overall longer time frames are very bullish so bias is still to the upside. Continued balanced session expected.

Levels above: 1692 nvpoc/ONHI, 1696.5 BAH***, 1702.5 nvpoc, 1705 ath

Levels below: 1681 hvn, 1679 BAL***, 1670 lo*, 1666.75 CLVN, 1664.5 nvpoc

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR inside value and chops around, takes out ONLO weakly then grinds higher up to 1697 where it fails.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and pushes higher but fails at pHi then rotates down to 1681 and finds buyers to close in middle.

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  #576 (permalink)
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If you are trading right now and waiting for a break of 83.75 for new lows, I hope you are laughing as hard as I am. It's like watching two slugs fight. Times like this, I wish I had a few hundred million and could throw 10,000 short at the market for kicks.

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  #577 (permalink)
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josh View Post
If you are trading right now and waiting for a break of 83.75 for new lows, I hope you are laughing as hard as I am. It's like watching two slugs fight. Times like this, I wish I had a few hundred million and could throw 10,000 short at the market for kicks.

ha, anytime we have a scenario like that your name pops up in my head cuz i can see you getting long and scalping around it because it is so well bid while i sit there and pull my hair out waiting for it to make a new low if only by a tick to get long.

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ha, anytime we have a scenario like that your name pops up in my head cuz i can see you getting long and scalping around it because it is so well bid while i sit there and pull my hair out waiting for it to make a new low if only by a tick to get long.

I was positioned short and thankfully we got the break. I really dislike days like today--I don't like to trade for 4-5 ticks at a time but the market has been so directionally weak that it's either that or nothing. I am gross positive but I think I am net flat or even negative at this point after commissions. I like rotations, but not chop, and this absolutely qualifies as chop to me.

Maybe in 20 minutes we get some directional moves when Bullard talks about monetary policy.

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  #579 (permalink)
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1. Sold 1690.5 vwap after ONHI taken out by only 3 ticks and then ES sold off and put in a poorish looking lo. It printed 1691.25 hi on this swing then I sold so I will just use a 4 tick stop given this trade location bigger picture isnt good. Stopped after 13 min and 1.5 MF. Well I got burned on this one using a tight stop.

2. Long 1684 which has just been incredibly well bid all morning until it finally gave way before but was quickly bought back up. Stop at new lows. First scale would be at vpoc if it can get back up there. For better or worse I scratched after 12 min and am going to try and re-enter lower.

3. Ok re-entered 1683.25 less than a minute later. First scale after 17 min and .5 MA. Man, really struggled up there to give me my fill and has now pulled back to entry almost. 40 min in market hanging around my entry, doesnt feel like buyers will come through with the stick save today. Took 4 ticks on 2nd scale after it went to my exit but no fill and I watched it fall all the way back down and I just took it off to finish green and end my losing streak. Terrible trade management.




Recap
ES opened OAIR and pushed to the ONHI and failed then auctioned lower steadily but slowly all day long. Value shifted overlapping lower while vpoc moved down 8 pts. Price closed on the lows. Volume of 1.3 mill is just about the same as yesterday. Profile is kind of b-shaped. On the daily chart we have an inside day with a close on the lows- its been awhile since we have had a close on the low. This makes 7 days of balance now and sets up a possibility of a probe and possible breakout lower tomorrow. I expect to see the ES continue to sell off overnight and open tomorrow around 1675-1670.

Well I finished green today so that is something. First trade was good but I dug my own grave by only giving myself a 4 tick stop. Would have been a full winner. From there only other trade and it was ok but against the run of play and my management was horrible- Im at least thankful I took the second one off for a winner instead of letting it stop me out at the low. Selling vwap was the money play all day. Tomorrow is another day and hopefully its a good one.

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  #580 (permalink)
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Economic data: claims, CPI, empire, philly fed, housing

ON Profile: ES has a 16.5 pt range so far on heavy volume of 269k. The hi is right around yesterdays VAL while the low so far is currently 2 ticks below the 1666.75 CLVN. Profile shape is fugly with vpoc currently at 1672.5.



Ok so the ES sold off post-market as I expected but even further than I thought to be honest. What happens now? We have a gap down from a 7 day balance on heavy volume. Will buyers gobble this up and take it back to test the balance low? Will sellers continue to slap this? Will we just balance around here? I will be trying to lean on the short side, though I am currently in a long as I write this. If it can get up to the 1675 (mondays pre-market low) area I view that as an attractive selling point. If sellers wack it from the get go, obviously try and hop on with 1648.5 (top of prior balance area) looking like an attractive destination. This gap down is so large that it would seem like buyers will make a few pushes somewhere. Longer time frames are very bullish, shortest time frame is bearish.

Levels Above: 1670.25 CHVN/lo*, 1675.25 mon low**, 1681 pLo***

Levels Below: 1666.25 ONLO/CLVN*, 1664.5 nvpoc*, 1660.5 lo, 1658.25 CHVN**, 1655 CLVN, 1653.25 BAH hi, 1648.5 ledge***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR and responsive buyers make first push up to 1675 where sellers enter and wack it down to possibly 1648.5.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAOR and pushes to ONLO or 1664.5 nvpoc and fails where buyers enter and grind higher thru the day but fail at 1681.

Hypo#3- ES opens OD down, get on!

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  #581 (permalink)
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1. Long 1667.25 ahead of 1666.75 CLVN in pre-market on a pretty rapid sell off that looked like a liquidation so I jumped in looking for a quick bounce. Famous last words ha. I didnt want to be long here according to my trade plan but the way it happened changed my mind. First scale after 6 min and 1.0 MA. 50 min it has not gone much further than my first scale and is being rejected by the -1 vwap so I need a push back inside to get it. Ok, I added on at 1666.5 after the ONLO was only 1 ticked. So it went 8 ticks my way right away but did not fill me then down to 1664.5 and bounced where I scratched my add. So I went to take a 2 pt loser on my initial contract and missed and now its spiked against me and am sitting with a 5 pt loser on my hands. Horrible management here. Wow, finally took loser -6 pts after 1:40 min. This ended up being equivalent to a full loser loss wise. Horrible management.

2. Sold 1660.25 -1 vwap as ES is trending down and rejecting vwap value so I am trying to get on board. Vpoc and vwap are above which maybe I should wait for. Scratched after 6 min and 1.75 MA. Would have been partial winner.

3. Sold 1661.75 vwap with dVAH just above. ES come into balance now so not real confident in it. Not sure how I didnt realize this before but vpoc is just a tick below entry. Stopped after 14 min and .5 MF. Dumb trade.

4. Re-entered short at 1663.75 dVAH using a 4 tick stop as market has stopped at the 1664.5 LVN/prior nvpoc. First scale after 23 min. Took second scale for 5 pts after 90 min and back to even on day!

5. Long 1658.25 dVAL but only a 1 lot. I think we have a nice strong low so just trying to play a bounce back up to vpoc. Late in the day though which makes a long near lows not great. Scratched after 12 min and 1.75 MA. Would have been a winner.




Recap
ES opened OD down and blasted lower before finally balance after finding a bottom. Value and vpoc shifted way lower from yesterday. Price closed much lower below value and just off the low. Volume was very heavy at 2.0 mill. Daily candle is a nasty red bar with a big gap above. So we finally got the break from balance and it was to the downside. I am anticipating more downside ahead as we have not seen a real big buying response yet.

Gosh, some really horrendous trading by me today that thankfully I was able to make up for with one good trade. That first trade... the pnl loss doesnt really reflect how much of a disaster it was. A 6 pt loser, inexcusable. Not only that it but having that trade on from pre-market prevented me or blinded me to the short off the open drive. That was one difficult open though, the one tick of the ONLO prolly would have gotten me long anyways. I'm going to leave at that. Tomorrow is another day and I need to relax and take my mind off things.

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Hey Profiler. Enjoying your journal. Have a couple of questions to throw your way, feel free to answer them (or not). First one is- do you plan to switch, or add to your trading instruments the Micro ES (assuming FT71 is able to get it up and running). And two, do you have a daily loss limit, and if so, do you mind stating it?

Cheers!

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Hi Profiler, Try to read your journal every day. Question though...did that shelf at 69.75 worry you at all? That just looked like a bunch of resistance to get through for your early long. Having said that, it could have just ripped right through there and gap filled. Wouldn't have surprised me a bit

Nice stick save for today. Sometimes the key is just to live to fight another day.

Ddawg

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lifeguardsteve88 View Post
Hey Profiler. Enjoying your journal. Have a couple of questions to throw your way, feel free to answer them (or not). First one is- do you plan to switch, or add to your trading instruments the Micro ES (assuming FT71 is able to get it up and running). And two, do you have a daily loss limit, and if so, do you mind stating it?

Cheers!

I prolly wont switch to the micro ES, depends where I am at with the regular contract when the micro becomes available. My daily loss limit is $600, which is 3 losing trades for me.

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Economic data: housing, michigan

ON Profile: ES traded in a 8.25 pt range on heavier than normal volume of 223k so far. The hi is 2 ticks short of pVAH while the low is below pLo and just above the gap fill of 1653. Profile shape is pretty balanced with vpoc at 1658 which is basically the same as yesterday.



After yesterdays big breakdown, ES spent the night balancing around yesterdays vpoc. We are set top open OAIR inside value so nothing to do off the open most likely. I favor the short side still as we still not have seen a strong buying response to indicate sellers are losing interest but today might just be a day of consolidation. Below, we have the 1653 gap gill and 1648.5 pBAH- I am very interested in buying that latter level, possibly blindly because it was very hard to bust through there on the way up so I expect support on the way down. Below that we have the 1646.5 mc vpoc and 1644 CHVN then the bottom of balance around 1641.5 which are all buy levels for me. To the upside, the ONHI is interesting as well as the 1655 level that ES broke down from in the afternoon. Then the 1669.25 pHi/1670.25 CHVN I expect serious resistance.

Levels Above: 1662 ONHI, 1665 afternoon hi, 1669.25 pHi/1670.25 CHVN***

Levels Below: 1653.75 ONLO*, 1650 CHVN/1648.5 pBAH***, 1646.5 mc vpoc*, 1644 CHVN, 1641.5 pBAL**

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Hi Profiler, Try to read your journal every day. Question though...did that shelf at 69.75 worry you at all? That just looked like a bunch of resistance to get through for your early long. Having said that, it could have just ripped right through there and gap filled. Wouldn't have surprised me a bit

Nice stick save for today. Sometimes the key is just to live to fight another day.

Ddawg

dawg-
yes it did worry me but at the time my head was spinning. it was a pretty risky open and then i compounded it by doing my first add to a trade and net net i dont think my head was clear at all during that time. i screwed that up big time but it was a good experience still.

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1. Long 1655.75 after ES opened OAIR below value, pushed to ONLO to the tick then bounced up back in pRange by 2 pts and inside vwap value so I got long around pLo/-1 vwap. 21 min I would be filled on my 2nd lot but I am going to try and hold for more, just ahead of ONHI and pVAH at 1661.5. Finally took second scale at same price after 55 min because it took out the hi by only 3 ticks and I just wanted to lock it in. No third scale.

2. Long 1653 gap close and -2 vwap on balanced day with vpoc established at same price as yesterday. Didn't really like the way it came down here though as there was no apparent buying response instantly. Scratched after 10 min and 1.5 MA. Will look for better long at 1648.5. Would have been a loser. This was a crappy trade and should not have been taken.

3. Long 1650.25 after ES stopped short of my 1648.5 preferred entry with current low at 1649.5. If this makes new low I will prolly puke it and try to get long at 1648.5 again. First scale after 23 min and 0 MA. Second scale after 32 min. This might go higher but my wife is on the beach pissed im not with her so I got to roll. Third scale given.




Recap
ES opened OAIR below value and put in a balanced rotational session. Value and vpoc were dragged lower again but not as markedly as the prior day. Price closed just off the lows and below value and below pLo so two weak finishes in a row. Volume was 1.46 mill so heavier than average lately but not nearly as heavy as yesterday. I am still expecting lower prices as we have not found any excess to the downside yet. Do I consider todays bounce off 1649.5 to be a touch of the 1648.5 level I have been frothing over for the last 2 days? I am still inclined to look long there but I have a feeling it will be taken out in the sunday night session.

I am happy with 2 of the three trades I made today. The other trade was not good. Additionally, I missed a short around the ONHI that was money but I did not take because I wanted to see it get taken out by a tick first and was also eyeing up the 1665 level. I could have milked that 3rd trade for more but the wife was pissed I was sitting in the hotel room all day working while she was on the beach. I'm very pleased to end the week on a positive note. I traded pretty crappy this week but thanks to today I ended up green on the week, if only by a few hundred. I think next week will present some good opportunities that hopefully I can really take advantage of. bom fim!

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  #588 (permalink)
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Economic data: none

ON Profile: ES traded in a 6.5 pt range so far on good volume of 154k so far. The hi is just a tick short of fridays vpoc while the low is right at the 1648.5 level I have been frothing over the last few days. Profile shape is nicely balanced with vpoc right in the middle at 1651.5.



Friday the market probed lower searching for buyers and found them around 1650 then bounced higher but was unable to sustain it and faded into the close. The ON session balanced nicely with a slight downside bias. I have been wanting to buy 1648.5 for awhile and today may be the opportunity to finally get it but now I am not sure I want it considering friday's 1649.5 could be considered a first touch and then the ONLO a second touch so which would make an RTH print the 3rd touch. Have to see how it plays out in real time. Below that the 1644.75 nvpoc/CHVN is also a very compelling long idea that aside from an open drive lower I think will almost be a blind buy. Short term trend is down but I think we are at levels that present better risk/reward to the long side as the market digests last weeks break lower. If aggressive sellers make an appearance obviously that changes things but as we have no econ today I am not anticipating it. Longer term trends remain very bullish.

Levels Above: 1655.25 ONHI/nvpoc**, 1661.75 pHi*, 1665.25 aft hi**, 1669.25/1670.25 breakdown area/CHVN***

Levels Below: 1648.5 ONLO/pBAH**, 1644.75 nvpoc/CHVN**, 1637.75 CHVN, 1634.75 nvpoc**

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR below value and pushes lower to ONLO/1644.75 nvpoc and bounces strongly up to 1662.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and bounces up to 1655.25 where sellers enter and wack it to 1644 to pick up buyers then rotates.

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  #589 (permalink)
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1. Long 1652.75 vpoc after OAIR and push below pLo and nice bounce off it which I missed. Wanted to get long at pb to vwap at 1651.5 but felt like it didnt want to pull back so i jumped in aggressively. Ah man, instantly spikes 2 pt down in my face. Should have waited for vwap. Scratched after 3 min and 2.0 MA, will try to re-enter lower... pff, would have been full winner less than 10 min later...

2. Long 1653.5 vwap...ok so I blew the first trade and now I am back in at a higher price I still think there is more upside left today and buyers are in control. Question was getting long here or waiting for possibly dVAL at 1652.5. Vpoc up at 1655 which I think works in favor of this trade. Scratched after 2 min and trying to re-enter the dVAL. Would have been 1/2 W.

3. Long 1652.5 dVAL. Maybe there has been a context change here, not sure as last bounce off vwap only barely went above 1655 vpoc. Annoyingly it went 8 ticks in my favor basically instantly but did not give me my fill and is now back to my entry... Vpoc shifted back to tick above entry which sucks. Now it spiked 6 ticks against me and come back. As I look at the profile, I still think this is a good area to be long. It looks like a p shape and I am long from near the bottom of the balance area... Out for scratch after 43 min as it pushed up to vwap and printed super weak then instant rejection.

4. Re-entered long 1651.5 which is now the dVAL after it printed 1 tick above the prior swing low very weakly. Will use a 4-6 tick stop on this. So it went 3 ticks against me and printed 1 tick under prior swing low which was unch on the day and we have a small buying response so far. Otherwise this thing is basically lingering down here which is not good. 45 min in it just 1 ticked the prior low weakly and has bounced a bit. It is debatable whether I should still be in this trade as nothing is happening. Stopped after an 93 min...

5. Long 1644.75 nvpoc late in the day at 4:40, market totally out of balance. Instantly 5 ticks against me, Im going to try and scratch it. Scratched after 4 min and 1.25 MA. Would have been a loser.




Recap
ES but in a balanced rotational day with a downside bias. Value and vpoc moved lower once again but incrementally not drastically. Price closed near the low and below value, like friday, so weak closes are becoming the fad. Volume was average at 1.23 mill. Pretty fugly profile shape. Sellers still in control.

Traded like a clown today. Missed the awesome long off the open, botched the second attempt then tried a series of longs that went nowhere and culminated with a long 20 min before the cash close in an extremely out of balance market as the ES was clinging to the -2 vwap like it was crack. I really thought today was a bounce day and it started off that way but sellers overpowered. Today was just a frustrating day. I dont know whether to be thankful I only lost $150 or be pissed I scratched so many trades and didnt even try one sell. That last long...I knew I should have at least waited more before pulling the trigger but I so wanted to get in at that level. Tomorrow is another day.

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  #590 (permalink)
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Some people like using the NYSE TICK, others do not. I am in the "use it when it's useful" camp. Here it is for today. Hardly could get above zero the whole day, hung out mostly between -500 and 0. When TICK struggles to punch above zero and it's in a grind downward like that, best bet is to get short and see what happens, or at least be very careful with longs.

Notably, there were no extremes downward for the entire day, until one at the end. Had there been spikes downward, a long might be a good play at that time. But the absence of this means that downward pressure was not exhausted. Also check out delta today. Steady drift down most of day.


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Some people like using the NYSE TICK, others do not. I am in the "use it when it's useful" camp. Here it is for today. Hardly could get above zero the whole day, hung out mostly between -500 and 0. When TICK struggles to punch above zero and it's in a grind downward like that, best bet is to get short and see what happens, or at least be very careful with longs.

I definitely plan on adding Tick into the mix at some point because I think it certainly can add value (yesterday being a perfect example) but for now I think I still need to focus on the basics and keep it simple. Thanks for pointing that out and please do so again in the future when you see some obvious distortions like that.

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Profiler, sharing this here because I like your thread, I hope you don't mind.

Sometimes some of the most obvious ways to look at the data yield insight. This is the cash index but I'm pretty sure the ES will look very similar. This is day 4 of the downward grind so when it becomes too obvious the channel will break, but yesterday at least, the upper line provided a good guideline, as well as a good lower target. Trend and channel lines are some of the most subjective things one can use, but I would bet quite a bit of money that most traders have seen this channel by now and have these lines marked on their charts.

If nothing else, it is a good guideline for examining failure of the channel and acting based on that. Because it has probably taken the notice of most traders, having it around yourself can be a good way to gauge how others might be feeling as their expectations and fears play out, and profiting from that.


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  #593 (permalink)
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Economic data: none

ON Profile: We have a 8.75 pt range on heavy volume of 255k so far. The low is below pLo by a bit and the hi is right around fridays low. Not a very balanced profile as its kind of a long rectangle but for the moment vpoc is somewhat clearly defined at 1643.25.



I was looking for a bounce yesterday and although we got one right off the open it was faded and once again the market closed near the lows. On the daily candle the ES has been one time framing lower for 4 days now. I continue to think we are at an area where a sizable bounce is likely but I think until that happens, the short side is the place to be. We are set for an OAIR open, right around the VAL. The ONHI looks somewhat poor and roughly corresponds to fridays low as well as yesterdays afternoon breakdown area so I think that area could be an attractive short entry. Acceptance above that targets the 1652.5 nvpoc and if value is built above that then I must re-consider what type of day we have on our hands. Longer term time frames are still very bullish but short term is clearly bearish.

Levels Above: 1649.75 ONHI**, 1652.5 nvpoc, 1657 pHi, 1659 mc vpoc**, 1661.75 fri hi*, 1665.25 thurs aft hi*

Levels Below: 1642.25 pLo/1641 ONLO**, 1637.5 CHVN*, 1634.75 nvpoc**, 1631.25-1628.5 GAP, 1623 CHVN

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR around VAL and pushes higher to ONHI and fails down to ONLO and possibly lower where buyers enter and balances the rest of the day.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and sellers push to 1644.5 CHVN where buyers enter and grind higher thru the day.

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  #594 (permalink)
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Profiler, sharing this here because I like your thread, I hope you don't mind.

Not at all, man, post all you want and I actually had not see that chart so thanks!

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  #595 (permalink)
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1. Long 1644.75 CHVN/eth vwap off the open anticipating potential responsive buyers as it is OAIR below value and a weak print at 1644.25 lo. So it went 5 ticks in my favor and now 6 ticks against with the low now being ON vpoc/ -1 vwap which could be money support actually. Now back in my favor a few ticks. Scratched after 11 min as it is having trouble getting above eth vwap. Would have been full winner.

2. Sold 1651.75 ahead of 1652.5 nvpoc after an extremely poor hi formed but it was only 1 ticked and profile below def looks like it could use some backing and filling. Upside momentum has really stalled here but who knows? Ok so now it made another 1 tick hi with only 194 printed at the nvpoc. Vpoc shifted to 1651.25. Now its made another new 1 tick hi. Well it went 8 ticks against me now and I am close to stopping out. Stopped after 40 min with a 3 pt loser. God fucking damnit I need to stop violating my stops.




Recap
ES opened OAIR and basically re-traced yesterdays range. Value and vpoc basically did not change. Price closed incrementally higher and inside value but once again faded into the close for the fifth day in a row. Volume was decent at 1.27 mill. There is no other way to describe the profile shape except for ugly. Its kind of a trend day, kind of a triple distribution and kind of p-shaped. On the composite, the mc vpoc shifted down from 1659 to 1655 which I guess means lower prices are being accepted? To this day I don't have a firm grasp on vpoc shifts... If today was finally the bounce day it certainly was not inspiring.

I think I made 2 legit trades today but I screwed them both up. Off the open, I should have noted that ON vpoc and -1 vwap were one and the same and potentially offered a good trade location given the overnight balance. I've seen that set up work before but I did not realize it in time. That would have helped me with better trade location. Still, now that the day is over how does that trade location look? Second trade got away from me. I am just struggling with the way the market is trading lately. Off topic, apparently today is the first day here on futures.io (formerly BMT) that I am now posting under "market wizard" status. I think the system needs to be changed a bit because I am clearly not that! Tomorrow is another day.

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  #596 (permalink)
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Economic data: housing, FOMC

ON Profile: We have a 7.75 pt range on average volume of 152k so far. The hi is just above the close and concurrent with an HVN from yesterday while the low is 2 ticks above pLo. Profile shape is kind of a fugly balance with vpoc in the middle at 1647.75.



Yesterday we had an inside day with a weak bounce that faded into the close. Overnight sellers continued to auction it lower and balance in the lower portion of yesterdays profile. I can see a potential break out today with the catalyst being housing or fomc. I can even envision a liquidation break followed by a strong reversal but I digress. So we are set to open OAIR below value roughly in the same place as yesterday. I expect responsive buyers to make the first push and if they cant take it back above the 1649.5 pVAL/LVN then I expect sellers to make a run for lows and thats where it gets interesting. A break and hold below brings 1637.75 CHVN or 1634.75 nvpoc into the equation. However, a peak below and failure would me to believe 1654.5 will be seen in short order. Once fomc is out, all bets are off. Long term trends are very bullish but short term is bearish.

Levels Above: 1649.5 LVN/pVAL*, 1654.5 nvpoc*, 1659 CHVN/1661.5*, 1665.5**, 1669.25/1670.25***

Levels Below: 1643.25 pLO**, 1637.75 CHVN**, 1634.75 nvpoc*, 1629 CLVN/gap*, 1623 CHVN, 1620.5 CHVN***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR below value and pushes up to 1649.5 and fails then looks lower to pLo and either breaks lower or grinds back up to 1655.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and sells off below pLo and breaks to 1634.75 where it then bounces big to 1655.

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1. Long 1646.5 eth vwap after ES opened OAIR and one ticked the ONLO then headed higher in same way as yesterday with a very poor looking hi above. Im so pissed I missed the 1644 long as I bid there but no fill then it ran away. Shoot, forgot about housing report in 3 min, trying to scratch it. Scratched... Would have been a 1/2 winner and the day seems to be changing.

2. Long 1644.25 after pLo prints weakly and market is balancing ahead of FOMC and not expecting a break before the news. Stopped after 7 min.

3. Sold 1643.5/43.75 IBLO/-1 vwap after ES broke below balance by 3.5 pts and has bounced off it expecting further rotation down. Definite absorption by sellers here but who knows if it will hold. Scratched after 46 mins. Would have been full loser.

4. Long 1643.5 dVAL/IBLO after fomc. Stopped in less than a minute.

5. Long 1639.5 after low was taken out by only a few ticks. Stopped after a minute.




Recap
ES opened OAIR below value and mostly balanced until the fomc when shit got cray. Net net we end up with lower value and vpoc. Price closed on the lows, sizably down and below value and below the recent balance we have formed. Volume was heavy at 1.91 mill. Daily candle looks pretty ugly with solid rejection from above of the mc vpoc practically to the tick. I had thought the initial low after fomc would be enough to catalyze a pop back up to 1665/1670 over the next few days and it did bounce 18 handles off it today but then sold right back off and im guessing will continue to sell off overnight leaving us with a potentially sizable gap down tomorrow. ES in search of....buyers.

I hit my limit down today. Well almost, my limit is $600 and I stopped at-$562 because one more losing trade would have put me over the limit and I cant do that. Prolly all of my trades were pretty crappy. This is the second fomc in a row where I have gotten wacked and I hate to eliminate this as a trading day in the future but clearly I need to step back and let things play out more before I get in. Sucks to be me right now but its part of the game. Tomorrow is another day.

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Sucks to be me right now but its part of the game. Tomorrow is another day.

I actually admire your consistency in your journaling. Accepting a losing day sucks, but a lot less than taking a loss and going mad.

“Happiness is the meaning and the purpose of life, the whole aim and end of human existence.” Δ

“There is no path, but only a fool wouldn’t follow it.”
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  #599 (permalink)
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Economic data: claims, LEI

ON Profile: ES has traded in a wider than normal 13.75 pt range so far on heavier than normal volume of 223k. The low is at 1631.5 CHVN to the tick while the hi is a tick above yesterdays vpoc and also the 1645 CHVN. Interesting to note how the prior days vpoc has been capping the upside lately. Vpoc is currently at 1643.75. Kind of a double distribution shaped profile.



Yesterday was a wild day and as expected the weak close led to continued selling after the bell. However, for the moment ES is trading back inside yesterdays value and rejecting the spike into the close. In an uptrending market I would say the bulls clearly have the edge to start the day but in this context I have to believe the bears will try to assert themselves again and the bulls will be hesitant. I think the key level will be the 1645 nvpoc/ONHI. If the bulls can build acceptance above it then we have the makings of a rally day. What would be interesting is if the market could actually close strong for once as it would certainly indicate a change in complexion. So I think today the pressure is on the bears to prove they are still in control. Longer time frames are very bullish, short term is bearish.

Levels Above: 1645***, 1650.5 CHVN/HVN**, 1655 CHVN/mc vpoc, 1659 CHVN**/1661.5 Hi, 1665.5 Hi**, 1669.25/1670.25 breakdown level***

Levels Below: 1639.75 pVAL/LVN*, 1636 pLo**, 1631.5 ONLO/CHVN***, 1629 CLVN, 1623.5 CHVN**, 1620.5 CHVN***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR inside value and pushes lower to 1639.75 pVAL and picks up buyers then grinds higher thru the day and potentially sells off into the close again.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and pushes higher up to 1650 where sellers re-enter and challenge pLo and potentially lower but I anticipate a good buying response.

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1. Sold 1648.75 pVAH after it finally came back into vwap value a bit. Its also vpoc which sucks and struggling to go higher. God damnit, instantly against me. I wanted to wait for 1650.5 but I got impatient. Stopped after 9 min for 2.5 pts and 0MF. Horrible trade.

2. Long 1652 IBHI/ 1st vwap after lots of absorption on the bid then a weak print at 1651.5. Will use a tight 4 tick stop as I would really like to get long lower at 1649.5 vwap. ES is trending higher today with no aggressive sellers at all. I dont like how it came off a tick shy of pHi. Stopped after 10 min.

3. Long 1649.75 vwap. Its gone 4 ticks against and 7 my favor after 35 min and I took a 6 tick scale because I need a win mentally. Had I waited another minute would have gotten my 8 tick scale. Stopped on 2nd lot after 90 min...

4. Long 1655.5. I have no MP/VP basis for this trade. I bought it expecting a squeeze into the close as it held above the 1655 CHVN a bit and the market has been week into the close 6 days in a row and expecting a possible reversal to that. First scale after a minute. Well its come back to entry after spiking higher and taking out prior 3 days highs so that isnt cool. Out at entry on 2nd lot at cash close.




Recap
ES opened OAIR inside value and grinded higher thru the day. Value and vpoc shifted higher. Price closed much higher on the day and above value and near the hi which is a break from the pattern and what I speculated on this morning. Volume was pretty bush at 1.25 mill given what happened yesterday. Daily candle is a strong green bar. So it seems like we finally have an excess low in place, ES opened with a gap higher at 1645 CHVN and rejected that and is now apparently ready to test the 1661/65/69 levels where I expect sellers to re-enter.

Another losing day, every day so far this week. Im so fucking pissed right now. First trade was so bad and another stop violation. Second trade was a shot at a trend day, didnt work, small loss. Third trade was good and I am pissed that little move down in the afternoon shook me out. It would have turned my day into a positive one. Last trade garbage but I got a scale and fast at that. Im frustrated because I thought I was making good progress but this week has made it clear that I have a loooooong ways to go. I will say it again, im fucking pissed. Tomorrow is another day.

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