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Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling
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Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling

  #581 (permalink)
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8-15 trades and recap

1. Long 1667.25 ahead of 1666.75 CLVN in pre-market on a pretty rapid sell off that looked like a liquidation so I jumped in looking for a quick bounce. Famous last words ha. I didnt want to be long here according to my trade plan but the way it happened changed my mind. First scale after 6 min and 1.0 MA. 50 min it has not gone much further than my first scale and is being rejected by the -1 vwap so I need a push back inside to get it. Ok, I added on at 1666.5 after the ONLO was only 1 ticked. So it went 8 ticks my way right away but did not fill me then down to 1664.5 and bounced where I scratched my add. So I went to take a 2 pt loser on my initial contract and missed and now its spiked against me and am sitting with a 5 pt loser on my hands. Horrible management here. Wow, finally took loser -6 pts after 1:40 min. This ended up being equivalent to a full loser loss wise. Horrible management.

2. Sold 1660.25 -1 vwap as ES is trending down and rejecting vwap value so I am trying to get on board. Vpoc and vwap are above which maybe I should wait for. Scratched after 6 min and 1.75 MA. Would have been partial winner.

3. Sold 1661.75 vwap with dVAH just above. ES come into balance now so not real confident in it. Not sure how I didnt realize this before but vpoc is just a tick below entry. Stopped after 14 min and .5 MF. Dumb trade.

4. Re-entered short at 1663.75 dVAH using a 4 tick stop as market has stopped at the 1664.5 LVN/prior nvpoc. First scale after 23 min. Took second scale for 5 pts after 90 min and back to even on day!

5. Long 1658.25 dVAL but only a 1 lot. I think we have a nice strong low so just trying to play a bounce back up to vpoc. Late in the day though which makes a long near lows not great. Scratched after 12 min and 1.75 MA. Would have been a winner.

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Recap
ES opened OD down and blasted lower before finally balance after finding a bottom. Value and vpoc shifted way lower from yesterday. Price closed much lower below value and just off the low. Volume was very heavy at 2.0 mill. Daily candle is a nasty red bar with a big gap above. So we finally got the break from balance and it was to the downside. I am anticipating more downside ahead as we have not seen a real big buying response yet.

Gosh, some really horrendous trading by me today that thankfully I was able to make up for with one good trade. That first trade... the pnl loss doesnt really reflect how much of a disaster it was. A 6 pt loser, inexcusable. Not only that it but having that trade on from pre-market prevented me or blinded me to the short off the open drive. That was one difficult open though, the one tick of the ONLO prolly would have gotten me long anyways. I'm going to leave at that. Tomorrow is another day and I need to relax and take my mind off things.

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  #582 (permalink)
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Hey Profiler. Enjoying your journal. Have a couple of questions to throw your way, feel free to answer them (or not). First one is- do you plan to switch, or add to your trading instruments the Micro ES (assuming FT71 is able to get it up and running). And two, do you have a daily loss limit, and if so, do you mind stating it?

Cheers!

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  #583 (permalink)
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Shelf at 69.75


Hi Profiler, Try to read your journal every day. Question though...did that shelf at 69.75 worry you at all? That just looked like a bunch of resistance to get through for your early long. Having said that, it could have just ripped right through there and gap filled. Wouldn't have surprised me a bit

Nice stick save for today. Sometimes the key is just to live to fight another day.

Ddawg

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  #584 (permalink)
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lifeguardsteve88 View Post
Hey Profiler. Enjoying your journal. Have a couple of questions to throw your way, feel free to answer them (or not). First one is- do you plan to switch, or add to your trading instruments the Micro ES (assuming FT71 is able to get it up and running). And two, do you have a daily loss limit, and if so, do you mind stating it?

Cheers!

I prolly wont switch to the micro ES, depends where I am at with the regular contract when the micro becomes available. My daily loss limit is $600, which is 3 losing trades for me.

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  #585 (permalink)
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8-16 pre-market

Economic data: housing, michigan

ON Profile: ES traded in a 8.25 pt range on heavier than normal volume of 223k so far. The hi is 2 ticks short of pVAH while the low is below pLo and just above the gap fill of 1653. Profile shape is pretty balanced with vpoc at 1658 which is basically the same as yesterday.

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After yesterdays big breakdown, ES spent the night balancing around yesterdays vpoc. We are set top open OAIR inside value so nothing to do off the open most likely. I favor the short side still as we still not have seen a strong buying response to indicate sellers are losing interest but today might just be a day of consolidation. Below, we have the 1653 gap gill and 1648.5 pBAH- I am very interested in buying that latter level, possibly blindly because it was very hard to bust through there on the way up so I expect support on the way down. Below that we have the 1646.5 mc vpoc and 1644 CHVN then the bottom of balance around 1641.5 which are all buy levels for me. To the upside, the ONHI is interesting as well as the 1655 level that ES broke down from in the afternoon. Then the 1669.25 pHi/1670.25 CHVN I expect serious resistance.

Levels Above: 1662 ONHI, 1665 afternoon hi, 1669.25 pHi/1670.25 CHVN***

Levels Below: 1653.75 ONLO*, 1650 CHVN/1648.5 pBAH***, 1646.5 mc vpoc*, 1644 CHVN, 1641.5 pBAL**

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  #586 (permalink)
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Ddawg View Post
Hi Profiler, Try to read your journal every day. Question though...did that shelf at 69.75 worry you at all? That just looked like a bunch of resistance to get through for your early long. Having said that, it could have just ripped right through there and gap filled. Wouldn't have surprised me a bit

Nice stick save for today. Sometimes the key is just to live to fight another day.

Ddawg

dawg-
yes it did worry me but at the time my head was spinning. it was a pretty risky open and then i compounded it by doing my first add to a trade and net net i dont think my head was clear at all during that time. i screwed that up big time but it was a good experience still.

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  #587 (permalink)
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8-16 trades and recap

1. Long 1655.75 after ES opened OAIR below value, pushed to ONLO to the tick then bounced up back in pRange by 2 pts and inside vwap value so I got long around pLo/-1 vwap. 21 min I would be filled on my 2nd lot but I am going to try and hold for more, just ahead of ONHI and pVAH at 1661.5. Finally took second scale at same price after 55 min because it took out the hi by only 3 ticks and I just wanted to lock it in. No third scale.

2. Long 1653 gap close and -2 vwap on balanced day with vpoc established at same price as yesterday. Didn't really like the way it came down here though as there was no apparent buying response instantly. Scratched after 10 min and 1.5 MA. Will look for better long at 1648.5. Would have been a loser. This was a crappy trade and should not have been taken.

3. Long 1650.25 after ES stopped short of my 1648.5 preferred entry with current low at 1649.5. If this makes new low I will prolly puke it and try to get long at 1648.5 again. First scale after 23 min and 0 MA. Second scale after 32 min. This might go higher but my wife is on the beach pissed im not with her so I got to roll. Third scale given.

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Recap
ES opened OAIR below value and put in a balanced rotational session. Value and vpoc were dragged lower again but not as markedly as the prior day. Price closed just off the lows and below value and below pLo so two weak finishes in a row. Volume was 1.46 mill so heavier than average lately but not nearly as heavy as yesterday. I am still expecting lower prices as we have not found any excess to the downside yet. Do I consider todays bounce off 1649.5 to be a touch of the 1648.5 level I have been frothing over for the last 2 days? I am still inclined to look long there but I have a feeling it will be taken out in the sunday night session.

I am happy with 2 of the three trades I made today. The other trade was not good. Additionally, I missed a short around the ONHI that was money but I did not take because I wanted to see it get taken out by a tick first and was also eyeing up the 1665 level. I could have milked that 3rd trade for more but the wife was pissed I was sitting in the hotel room all day working while she was on the beach. I'm very pleased to end the week on a positive note. I traded pretty crappy this week but thanks to today I ended up green on the week, if only by a few hundred. I think next week will present some good opportunities that hopefully I can really take advantage of. bom fim!


Last edited by Profiler; August 16th, 2013 at 07:28 PM.
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  #588 (permalink)
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8-19 pre-market

Economic data: none

ON Profile: ES traded in a 6.5 pt range so far on good volume of 154k so far. The hi is just a tick short of fridays vpoc while the low is right at the 1648.5 level I have been frothing over the last few days. Profile shape is nicely balanced with vpoc right in the middle at 1651.5.

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Friday the market probed lower searching for buyers and found them around 1650 then bounced higher but was unable to sustain it and faded into the close. The ON session balanced nicely with a slight downside bias. I have been wanting to buy 1648.5 for awhile and today may be the opportunity to finally get it but now I am not sure I want it considering friday's 1649.5 could be considered a first touch and then the ONLO a second touch so which would make an RTH print the 3rd touch. Have to see how it plays out in real time. Below that the 1644.75 nvpoc/CHVN is also a very compelling long idea that aside from an open drive lower I think will almost be a blind buy. Short term trend is down but I think we are at levels that present better risk/reward to the long side as the market digests last weeks break lower. If aggressive sellers make an appearance obviously that changes things but as we have no econ today I am not anticipating it. Longer term trends remain very bullish.

Levels Above: 1655.25 ONHI/nvpoc**, 1661.75 pHi*, 1665.25 aft hi**, 1669.25/1670.25 breakdown area/CHVN***

Levels Below: 1648.5 ONLO/pBAH**, 1644.75 nvpoc/CHVN**, 1637.75 CHVN, 1634.75 nvpoc**

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR below value and pushes lower to ONLO/1644.75 nvpoc and bounces strongly up to 1662.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and bounces up to 1655.25 where sellers enter and wack it to 1644 to pick up buyers then rotates.

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  #589 (permalink)
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8-19 trades and recap

1. Long 1652.75 vpoc after OAIR and push below pLo and nice bounce off it which I missed. Wanted to get long at pb to vwap at 1651.5 but felt like it didnt want to pull back so i jumped in aggressively. Ah man, instantly spikes 2 pt down in my face. Should have waited for vwap. Scratched after 3 min and 2.0 MA, will try to re-enter lower... pff, would have been full winner less than 10 min later...

2. Long 1653.5 vwap...ok so I blew the first trade and now I am back in at a higher price I still think there is more upside left today and buyers are in control. Question was getting long here or waiting for possibly dVAL at 1652.5. Vpoc up at 1655 which I think works in favor of this trade. Scratched after 2 min and trying to re-enter the dVAL. Would have been 1/2 W.

3. Long 1652.5 dVAL. Maybe there has been a context change here, not sure as last bounce off vwap only barely went above 1655 vpoc. Annoyingly it went 8 ticks in my favor basically instantly but did not give me my fill and is now back to my entry... Vpoc shifted back to tick above entry which sucks. Now it spiked 6 ticks against me and come back. As I look at the profile, I still think this is a good area to be long. It looks like a p shape and I am long from near the bottom of the balance area... Out for scratch after 43 min as it pushed up to vwap and printed super weak then instant rejection.

4. Re-entered long 1651.5 which is now the dVAL after it printed 1 tick above the prior swing low very weakly. Will use a 4-6 tick stop on this. So it went 3 ticks against me and printed 1 tick under prior swing low which was unch on the day and we have a small buying response so far. Otherwise this thing is basically lingering down here which is not good. 45 min in it just 1 ticked the prior low weakly and has bounced a bit. It is debatable whether I should still be in this trade as nothing is happening. Stopped after an 93 min...

5. Long 1644.75 nvpoc late in the day at 4:40, market totally out of balance. Instantly 5 ticks against me, Im going to try and scratch it. Scratched after 4 min and 1.25 MA. Would have been a loser.

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Recap
ES but in a balanced rotational day with a downside bias. Value and vpoc moved lower once again but incrementally not drastically. Price closed near the low and below value, like friday, so weak closes are becoming the fad. Volume was average at 1.23 mill. Pretty fugly profile shape. Sellers still in control.

Traded like a clown today. Missed the awesome long off the open, botched the second attempt then tried a series of longs that went nowhere and culminated with a long 20 min before the cash close in an extremely out of balance market as the ES was clinging to the -2 vwap like it was crack. I really thought today was a bounce day and it started off that way but sellers overpowered. Today was just a frustrating day. I dont know whether to be thankful I only lost $150 or be pissed I scratched so many trades and didnt even try one sell. That last long...I knew I should have at least waited more before pulling the trigger but I so wanted to get in at that level. Tomorrow is another day.

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  #590 (permalink)
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Some people like using the NYSE TICK, others do not. I am in the "use it when it's useful" camp. Here it is for today. Hardly could get above zero the whole day, hung out mostly between -500 and 0. When TICK struggles to punch above zero and it's in a grind downward like that, best bet is to get short and see what happens, or at least be very careful with longs.

Notably, there were no extremes downward for the entire day, until one at the end. Had there been spikes downward, a long might be a good play at that time. But the absence of this means that downward pressure was not exhausted. Also check out delta today. Steady drift down most of day.

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