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Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling


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Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling

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  #41 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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No need to despair. A question: what is your "trigger" for an entry? In other words, you sold there based on the fact that you thought the location was right, but what else, or is that pretty much it?

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  #42 (permalink)
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Josh-
I enter almost all my trades at a level-be it a CLVN, mid, IBHI or nvpoc. Very rarely do I take a trade in middle of no-where. Next thing I consider is the rotation into it, on first touch I will pretty much always take the trade if its more than 3 pts. Then I consider what type of day it is so far and what type of day I think it is likely to be. I'm less likely to fade a trend day with solid breadth but I will on a 6pt move into a major CLVN, for example. I will take a 1.5 pt pb to IBHI on first touch if I think range extension is likely. I am considering many things but not enough or I am not doing my analysis correctly-or both. What are you looking for? What am I missing?

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  #43 (permalink)
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Economic data: ADP, GDP, crude, FOMC

ON Profile: It was a very tight range until GDP came out and then we had some expansion. GDP caused a spike down to 1498.5 which was immediately bought. I expected that level to be defended and it was. Will it be again on second touch if it happens during RTH? Yesterdays hi was taken out by 2 ticks which surprised me as I thought there would be more exploration upwards after yesterdays strong rally and close on hi's. ON vpoc currently 1504.5.



Closing Swing:1505.5-1501.25

Levels Above:1506 ON Hi, 1509 CLVN, 1514 CHVN/nvpoc

Levels Below: 1499.25 CLVN/1498.25 LVN/IBHI*, 1497 CHVN, 1493.5 CLVN, 1490.25 nvpoc, 1488.5 CLVN

Hypo#1- Spoos open OAIR re-test yesterdays breakout area ~1498-99 then grind higher to 1509 CLVN.

Hypo#2- Spoos open OAIR push higher to 1509 and fail then move lower to 1503 CHVN.

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  #44 (permalink)
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Profiler View Post
Josh-
I enter almost all my trades at a level-be it a CLVN, mid, IBHI or nvpoc. Very rarely do I take a trade in middle of no-where. Next thing I consider is the rotation into it, on first touch I will pretty much always take the trade if its more than 3 pts. Then I consider what type of day it is so far and what type of day I think it is likely to be. I'm less likely to fade a trend day with solid breadth but I will on a 6pt move into a major CLVN, for example. I will take a 1.5 pt pb to IBHI on first touch if I think range extension is likely. I am considering many things but not enough or I am not doing my analysis correctly-or both. What are you looking for? What am I missing?

Well there is no right or wrong with these things, it's simply what view of the market gives you the best "read" possible. In other words, what do you want to see in order to be convinced that this trade has a high likelihood of working in your favor?

By the way, an open today above 1501 has me looking to be a buyer at that price, and above 98.25, a buyer there. I was very, very tempted to buy the 99 when the negative GDP number shocker caused the plunge down to 98.50, but I just never open positions before the cash open anymore. If the long side continues to be the best play as I expect it should today, hopefully we get enough concern over that GDP number to at least test the low again at 98s. Anyway, best to you today Profiler.

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  #45 (permalink)
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I appreciate the discussion going on here. Good work guys.

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  #46 (permalink)
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Quite stealthily and quietly they have bought it up aggressively from 99 (just look at the new TICK high of day at 10:45am ET, when the market is trading at the lows of the day). A buy was very tempting there but given fed day, I am still flat with no position yet, as I don't expect much to happen in the next 3 hours really, no range extension anyway. I was holding for 98.25, and was a little surprised that the GDP low at 98.50 was not tested. We may even see new lows down to 98, but buyers have swung momentum in their favor for sure at this point.

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  #47 (permalink)
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i actually forgot I had a working order in before the GDP number so got long 99.25 pre-market for a quick scalp. stared long and hard about buying it again in RTH but on first touch only a few printed then when it finally went through it was only on a 1.5 pt move and I was expecting ON LO to get taken out so was working 98 bid and turns out 99.25 was the buy...now I watch.

The pattern of late has been to open, go up to previous days Hi, sell off 5-6-7 handles then grind higher. Today we have some big news possible with FOMC later but if the patter holds this current move up to mid will continue higher then pullback to mid will be a buy. See if it happens...

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  #48 (permalink)
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1. Bot 1499.25 CLVN on 5.75 pt spike after GDP release. Admittedly I forgot I had this order in the book before such a huge number. Got lucky on this one. Scaled after 30 seconds and .75 MA. Second scale given.

2. Long 1502.25 mid on .75 pt pb thinking pattern of recent days will play out again as low below looks good and it is from key level. Breadth -39 and tick 0. Stopped after 34 min and .75 MF. Prolly too agressive as it only went .75 pts through mid and stopped before an LVN and market likely to balance before FOMC?




Recap

Spoos opened OAIR in value and per the usual pattern went up to pHI (to the tick this time) and sold off. However, this time after a nice bottom formed buyers were never really able to get above the open price/lvn that formed at 1503.5. And from that we got a sell off into the close and close on lows. Importantly we closed below the 1499.25 breakout level and back at the familair 1495.5 mcvpoc. Allis not lost for the bulls though. Vpoc was unchanged, value area posted an inside day and we have a double top on the daily chart that indicates an unfinished auction. If you include today into the recent MC going back to 1-22, todays action dragged the MC VPOC up 1.5 pts to 1497 so value still being established higher.

Edit: I forgot to mention volume. Todays volume was the 2nd highest in 3 weeks and about 20% higher than January average. Direction was down so something to consider.

As for my trading, I'm pretty annoyed. I had a few non-trades where I wasnt filled and thought about paying up but didn't because I never know when to pay up or not so I just don't. They were good ideas, I was in the book ready to go but no fill. My mid trade today was stupid.

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  #49 (permalink)
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Economic data: claims, income/spending, PMI

ON Profile: Very tight overnight range so far of only 4 pts before the 730 data comes out. Sellers were cut off by the close yesterday so they continued their business afterwards and built upon yesterdays sell-off a bit. Vpoc stands at 1494 so below yLO. The market's character changed a bit yesterday with price closing below value and on lows for the first time in a long time. I see this as nothing more than a pullback in the context of a larger bull market but maybe the sell-side will start paying out a bit more over the next few days.

Yesterday had two distinct LVN's: 1503.5 and 1498.5, the latter lining up with a CLVN on the composite a tick above and also was the key breakout level that led to the move above 1500 so I am very interested in seeing if bears defend that and I will most likely be a seller there on first touch. 7:30 data is out and it caused a spike to 91.25 which was instantly defended so that is at least the 4th time its been down there and rejected quite strongly.


Lets say we open 1394 which would be an out-of-range open, what is most likely to happen? Responsive buying to push back into yesterdays range and to the prior mc vpoc at 1495.75 or CHVN at 1397?

Closing Swing: 1498-1495

Levels Above: 1495.75 mc vpoc/1497 CHVN, 1498.5 LVN/CLVN**, 1501.25 nvpoc, 1503.5 LVN, 1505.5 double hi

Levels Below: 1493.25 CLVN, 1490.25 nvpoc, 1488.5 CLVN, 1486.75 CHVN, 1482.75 CLVN*, 1480.75 nvpoc

Hypo#1- Spoos open OAOR and push higher first, potentially up to 1498.5 level then fade looking for buyers. Expecting buyers to show up at 1390 or 1387.

Hypo#2- Spoos open OAOR and sell off to 1387 then grind higher into close finding rejection at 1498.5.

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  #50 (permalink)
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1. Sold 1498.5 LVN on 5.25 pt move up wiht tick +180 and breadth -44. Stopped after 10 min and .5 MF. Unreal, really fucking pissed this trade didnt work.

2. Long mid 1496.75 on 2 pt pb. Breadth -93 and tick -300. Scratched after 2 mins because its a violation of my rule to only do mid trades on first touch. Plus only 2 handle pb. Would have been loser.

3. Long 1495.25 OPEN on 3 pt pb with tick -600 and breadth -26. Immediately scratched due to poor placement in profile. Looking to get long at VAL near 1494.25. Would have been loser.

4. Long 1494.25 LVN/OSLO on 1.75 pt move down targeting return to vpoc at 1496. Breadth -40 and tick -300. Scaled after 6 min and .25 MA. No second scale.






Recap

Spoos opened OAIR below value and instead of responsive buyers making first push higher, initiative sellers stepped in. Definitely someone got advance word of a good PMI though because buyers quickly stepped in and ramped it through my key resistance level by just enough to stop me out to the tick and then collapsing. Typical grind higher through the mid part of the day but sellers stepped in at the 98.5 level late in the day and held it down. VPOC shifted decidedly lower today thanks to heavy volume at the close. Value area shifted completely lower. Price managed to nestle back inside yesterdays range for basically no change. Volume was better than average again at 1.33 though still garbage compared to the days of yore.

My trading sucked today. First trade was a good trade, just bad luck, maybe my entry could have been better but still I really thought that would be a winner. The next 2 trades were a result of restlessness. Ended the day with a winner which felt nice. Overall I still have no feel about what auction theory is all about. I'm just a robot trying to play CLVNs and vpocs without really understanding whats going on. And I know there are more trades out there but I just dont see them or I am too scared to pull the trigger.

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