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Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling


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Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling

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  #401 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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Economic data: consumer confidence

ON Profile: If we combine all data from sunday night open we have quite the profile shape. We have 20.5 pts of range and volume of 330k. The hi is currently at the 1664.5 CHVN while the low is at 1642.25.



ES is set to open OAOR with a gap of some 12 pts higher than friday's close, which featured a ramp into the close. This 1664.5 area is a prominent CHVN on the composite but also a thin area from last weeks big sell off day. Below is a distinct LVN at 1660 and then CHVN at 1656 so a potential rejection off the open would target those levels first. Below that would be 1648 support. Dalton says go with the gap so any failure to get below 1660 would have 1668 and then 1677.25 nvpoc as targets.

Levels Above: 1664.5 CHVN*, 1668 HVN, 1677.25 nvpoc

Levels Below: 1660 CLVN*, 1656 CHVN**, 1648 CLVN, 1639 nvpoc

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR and responsive sellers step in down to 1660/1656 where buyers enter and grind higher into close.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAOR and buyers push to 1668 but fail and sellers grind lower thru the day.

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  #402 (permalink)
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1. Long 1668 mid/vwap (below it actually) on 4.75 pt move off hi's. Day has been bullish and vpoc sitting 1669.25 so hoping for a move back up to nvpoc 1677.25. Scaled after 4 min and .25 MA. No second scale...hmmm.

2. Long 1660 CLVN/ 1.5 IB on 2.5 pt move down. Not really liking this trade given the slow trickle down since the hi and the acceptance of price below IBLO but I took it because of confluence. The best trade was short from IBLO. Scratched after 5 min and 1.25 MA vs .25 MF. Would have been loser.

3. Long 1656 CHVN after missing 1655s. This is also 2x IB and 2nd vwap. Bulls really stepping away from this thing and letting it slide. Stopped after 3 min and .5 MF...




Recap
ES opened OAOR and pushed higher up to 1672 only to reverse and sell off the rest of the day, save for a late day bounce that in turn got sold. Vpoc and value finished markedly higher. Price closed near the lows and volume was better than average at about 1.6 mill. Above 1670 and above 1660 has been rejected as too expensive. Buyers found value around the 1656 CHVN but were not able to accomplish much above it.

Confusing opened for me, I guess I should have gotten long the open as it opened out of range and above the 1st vwap? Be interesting to see PB's recap today to see if he got long off the open or ended up going short above. I think all my trades were legit today but I am most disappointed about the one trade I didn't do. The short from the IBLO was money but I didnt know where to get in. We had a pretty poor low and good acceptance below the IB but three times it went down there and wouldn't take out lows. So I thought the market was too short and they would have to take it higher first to shake some people out and thought a trip up to the mid was in order and where I was queued but it 1 ticked the double top just above the IBLO and then dropped. I was expecting the double top above IBLO to really cause a spike but when it only 1 ticked and 1900 traded on the offer I guess that was my clue that shorts were still in control. Tomorrow is another day...

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  #403 (permalink)
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Profiler View Post
You will see that on the volume profile chart that nothing really sticks out. However, often times it seems as there will be confluence between the two as an LVN will be left behind.




What a great answer and concept! Thanks for the time and the charts.

As I was researching your thread for the term 'MP single' I came across almost 2 pages of examples where you had leaned on this idea. Generally you use for pre-market levels of interest, and then you take quite a few trades using MP singles.

A bit of a technicality - how do you physically implement this cross chart reading? Here is me guessing:

During your live trading - all your MP single prints are marked already with a line on you chart ?? because in the example below I don't know how else you could do it ?




OR you are looking for 'minimal prints' on the volume profile histogram, instead of referring to an MP chart prior to trading ?





In the great majority of your 'MP singles' trades entries,there weren't 'toothed out' pieces of the VP histogram, just in a couple I did see it, hence my question,

thanks and all best,

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  #404 (permalink)
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para6ut View Post
What a great answer and concept! Thanks for the time and the charts.

As I was researching your thread for the term 'MP single' I came across almost 2 pages of examples where you had leaned on this idea. Generally you use for pre-market levels of interest, and then you take quite a few trades using MP singles.

A bit of a technicality - how do you physically implement this cross chart reading? Here is me guessing:

During your live trading - all your MP single prints are marked already with a line on you chart ?? because in the example below I don't know how else you could do it ?




OR you are looking for 'minimal prints' on the volume profile histogram, instead of referring to an MP chart prior to trading ?





In the great majority of your 'MP singles' trades entries,there weren't 'toothed out' pieces of the VP histogram, just in a couple I did see it, hence my question,

thanks and all best,

Im not seeing the charts you posted so please repost them again and I will take a look. As for how I actually mark them, first I look over the day's MP chart to see if there were any and then I mark them on my MP chart so I can keep track of them in the future until they are filled in. When I was using IRT for charts, you could check a box and singles would automatically have a line extend from them so it required no effort at all and that was nice. I've always got an MP and VP chart up on my screen when I am trading.

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  #405 (permalink)
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first I look over the day's MP chart to see if there were any and then I mark them on my MP chart
I've always got an MP and VP chart up on my screen when I am trading.

Profiler, thanks again, great help indeed!

Please see the charts, hopefully these are fine this time.




In your reply - you did not mean you mark them on your VP chart , did you? ready to trade off of, or MP chart?

I personally find it helpful to mark levels before hand ( using physical lines on my chart) , as sometimes the sheer number of levels to keep a mental track of can be overwhelming for my simple mind.

Have a great day in Rio, I am sure it does wonders for your trading !!

( my gosh properties are expensive there)

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  #406 (permalink)
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Economic data: none

ON Profile: Another wide 16 pt range overnight with most of the trade occurring below yesterdays low. Volume is heavier than normal at 280k. Vpoc is currently 1645.25. Shape is kind of double distribution-like with a distinct LVN at 1650.25. Yesterday's vpoc capped the upside almost to the tick.



Yesterdays action raised the mc vpoc up to 1656.50 from 1626.5. We rejected that level overnight (along with yesterdays vpoc) and searched lower for buyers and found them in the low 1640s. We are set for an OAOR open with a gap down below pLo right around the 1648 CHVN. I anticipate responsive buyers to make the first move and if it can break into pRange and find acceptance then 1656.5 is the natural target and then the 1660 CLVN being the other side of balance. If it is rejected then it would seem a test of 1633.75 is in order. Longer time frames are incredibly bullish and daily time frame is balancing. I don't really care about bonds much but the 10 yr yield is at its highest level in many months so maybe we have some trend changes happening..

Levels Above: 1652.75 pLo, 1656.5 CHVN/1657.5 nvpoc**, 1661.5 MP single/LVN**, 1664.5 CHVN

Levels Below: 1648 CHVN, 1639 nvpoc, 1633.75 BO area**, 1629 nvpoc, 1626.5 CHVN***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR and pushes higher into pRange and builds acceptance then grinds higher to 1662.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAOR and pushes higher but fails at pLo then grinds lower thru the day to 1633.75 where it bounces.

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  #407 (permalink)
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1. Sold 1647.75 eth vwap after potential OD open with small push up followed by aggressive 4 pt move down. Stopped after 3 min and 1.5 MF... Not an OD.

2. Long 1639 nvpoc on 3.75 pt move down. Definitely a fade trade as market is working its way lower. Profile also very thin and blocky indicating no agreement on fair value which works against this. Scaled after 12 min and 1.0 MA. Second scale given.

3. Sold 1644 IBLO/ledge on 4 pt move. Nice bounce off lows so not sure if I should have taken this but vpoc did shift below IBLO so there was acceptance down there and the rotation is good. Vwap/mid above at 1644.75 for also possible resistance help. Scaled after 8 min and .75 MA. No second scale.

4. Sold 1649 1st vwap on 4.75 pt move up. Day has gone rotational and low does look good while hi not so much but I took the trade as it is above dVAH and rotation is big and vpoc is below at 1645. Stopped after 12 min and 1.25 MF... Not a good trade I dont think.




Recap
Im not sure what type of open today was, OAOR or ORR? It wasn't a weird variation of OD which I thought it might be at first. ES put in a very rotational day today with lower value and vpoc. Price finished down incrementally and inside value on better than average volume coming in at around 1.7 mill. Overall profile shape is kind of flat and long like yesterday. Bigger picture, today filled in around the 1648 CHVN.

I'm content with 3 out of the 4 trades I made today. First one I took a chance on an OD and went with it, didnt work, so be it. Second two trades were good though the IBLO short only gave one scale and if I was trading size I'm guessing I would have stayed in the long from 1639 and therefore would not have taken the IB short but who knows. Last trade, it seemed decent at the time but after thinking about it it doesn't make sense. For one, my entry gave me a fixed stop at 1651 which doesnt make sense because that is a good place to short and therefore doesn't make me wrong. I should have waited and taken a trade that gave me a stop inside pRange a few ticks where I would know I was wrong for sure. Market is moving though and thats good, no more sitting in a trade for 90 minutes to get a 6 tick scale.

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  #408 (permalink)
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Economic data: claims, gdp, home sales

ON Profile: The last few days have been examples of blocky profiles and last nights profile continues that trend. ES explored both below pVAL and pVAH and is currently trading above pHi. Vpoc sitting at 1652.25 which looks like buyers might be trying to support it around pHi. Volume is heavier than normal at around 300k so potential for a more volatile day again.



ES has been balancing the last few days between the mid 1630's and the mid 1650's with 1648 being vpoc. We are currently set to open in range right just above 1648 indicating market still in balance and should look to fade the edges. Acceptance above pHi would target 1657.5 and then 1661.5 and potentially higher. Rejection from pHi would have targets of 1646.75 nvpoc and 1633.75 BO area. My bias is to the long side given longer term time frames are very bullish so if the opening range gives indications of upside I will try and jump on.

Levels Above: 1656 mc vpoc/ 1657.5 nvpoc*, 1661.5 MP single/LVN*, 1664.5 CHVN

Levels Below: 1646.75 nvpoc, 1643.75 LVN/pVAL, 1638 pLo, 1633.75 BO area**

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR around pVAH and responsive sellers make push to 1643.75 to pick up buyers then grind higher to 1661.5 or higher.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and pushes higher but fails around 1657.5/1661.5 then auctions lower thru the day.

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  #409 (permalink)
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1. Sold 1657.5 nvpoc on strong move up after a little 1.5 pt re-trace and then only 2 ticked it so I jumped in. Market is looking strong so really not sure if it makes sense to take this or wait for 1661.5. Dang there is a 9am number in 3 min....only 1 lot so will let it ride. Vpoc shifted to 1657 which I dont think I like. Scaled after 10 min and 1.0 MA. Second scale given.

2. Long 1653.5 after pHi held a few times and we have vpoc and decent range extension above it. Scaled after 13 min and .5 MA. Second scale given.

3. Long 1653 dVAL/pHi/ on 2.75 pt move after mid printed weakly. We have a market in balance at the moment with value established higher so I took the long due to the confluence. This is the second time down here though. Scaled after 9 min and 0 MA. Second scale given.




Recap
ES opened OAIR and made only the tiniest of efforts to push lower before buyers stepped in and aggressively auctioned it higher thru pHi and up to the nvpoc and then spent the rest of the day balancing around the 1656 CHVN. Vpoc and value shifted higher. Price closed higher inside value and right around vpoc on average volume of about 1.4 mill. Very interesting profile shape and clearly 1652.75, the hi from yesterday as well as the low from the day before that, played a very instrumental role in the auction today. Talk about a ledge! It will definitely be a reference point for tomorrow.

Really happy with my trading today and only wish it could have gone a few ticks higher and given me the short at 1661.5 to finish the day. Obviously a long off of yesterdays vpoc was the trade of the day but what would have been the logic behind it? We opened up inside value indicating no change and while we have been balancing the last few days I really didn't think the market was coiling and ready for a balance breakout higher, though I did have an upside bias. Did anyone take a long off 1647, if so why? Pretty incredible how strongly buyers defended 1652.75, its been awhile since I have seen a ledge like that. Lets hope I can continue this momentum I have had over the last week and finish the month strong.

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  #410 (permalink)
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Economic data: income, spending, PMI, michigan

ON Profile: ES has a double distribution profile with a very long thin area between the two distributions. Range is wide at nearly 16 handles but volume isn't really heavy at 230k. The low is right around the ledge from wednesday's profile and the hi is in the middle of the HVN area yesterday. Vpoc sitting at 1644.75.



I wasn't really expecting to see ES down 8-10 handles when I woke up this morning after the way buyers defended 1652.75 yesterday but thats the market. So we are set for an OAOR, possibly an OAIR below value if it can sneak up a bit higher before the bell. Given what happened yesterday and that volume is not that great, I am anticipating responsive buyers to make the first push today and 1652.75 to be a key level once again. If it can build acceptance above that level then 1661.75 is the target, potentially 1664.5 CHVN. However, if it is rejected, either from 62.75 or pLo 1646.75 then we must look towards that 1633.75 breakout level again.

Levels Above: 1646.75 pLo*, 1652.75 ledge***, 1661.5 MP single/LVN, 1664.5 CHVN

Levels Below: 1638 ONLO, 1633.75 BO area**, 1629 nvpoc, 1626 CHVN***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR and responsive buyers make first push into pRange and hold, then battle 1652.75, if successful continue higher to 1661.5, if not rotate down to ONLO.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAOR and fails are pLo and initiative sellers push down to 1633.75 to find buyers.

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  #411 (permalink)
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1. Short 1653.5 ;edge/pVAL on 2.75 pt move up. This is second test of level so I am not happy about it and market clearly wanted higher off the open. Scaled after 4 min and .25 MA. Second scale given.

2. Long 1654.25 IBHI after printing weakly 1 tick inside IB. There is an LVN just below at 1653.75 which is also VAH so if that does not hold and is accepted back inside value I am wrong. An HVN has formed above at 1656.5 which might pull it back up. FT is giving a webinar now and he just said the IBHI long here is not a good probability because the hi looks nice and the market isn't trending or anything... I scratched it after 10 min and 1.0 MA vs .75 MA, admittedly because FT scared me out of it. Would have been a loser.

3. Long 1633.75 BO area/CLVN on 3.75 pt move a few minutes before the close. I realize this is risky but had to take the trade. Stopped after 1 min and 0 MF.




Recap
Wow, what a day! ES opened OAIR and responsive buyers took charge and auctioned it up to pVAH and then ES completely unraveled into the close, aided by some end of the month flushing. We end up with overlapping lower value and vpoc but I think you throw those out the window on a day like today. Price closed significantly down and very heavy volume of about 2.2 mill. Additionally, it closed below the breakout area after non-farms and just above the 1626.5 CHVN. Today is definitely a day to take notice.

You would think with such a big 32 handle range that I could have managed more than 3 trades but I just wasn't see much and maybe thats a problem. The last trade I took is interesting- thats the second time I have bought the exact breakout level and been run over. Maybe todays end of month games were a factor, maybe not but I now have another memory seared into my brain to help in the future. Finally, I screwed up at the close, once I got stopped on my last long I thought there was a good chance that 1626.5 CHVN would print and I was really expecting a bounce from there. But I had 1626 in my head as the level and worked that instead of 1626.5 which indeed offered up an instant 2 pt winner plus a scale. So I missed the trade but at least its good to know the level worked. I end the month with a scratch and that sucks but its better than a loss.

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  #412 (permalink)
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Feels like its been forever since ES has traded in the 1620s (even though its only been 3 weeks) so I thought I would post a chart with some levels in the area as a refresher. 1626.5 was the mc vpoc of all trading since the non-farms breakout until last week when it shifted up to 1656 so its no coincidence that friday bottomed out at 1626. I think 1621 and 1613 will also serve as good support on first tests as well. Below that and the non-farms gap comes into play. To the upside, I would think 1633.75 CLVN would hold on first test given the two prior bottoms to the left. However, as the two charts below show, longer term time frames are still wildly bullish so its quite possible that this market just rips right back up.




ES has just opened for the sunday night session right around where it closed so no crazy emotions out of the gate.

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  #413 (permalink)
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Economic data: ISM, construction

ON Profile: Nice 12 pt range on above average volume of 313 k so far. The low is 1626.5 CHVN to the tick and the hi is 1638.5 which I can't really come up with a reason for stopping there but the hi does look poor and there is a minor HVN just above at 1640 from friday that people may have front run. Overall shape is somewhat boxy with a nice bottom and poor hi. Vpoc sitting at 1633.



Friday had a wicked sell off into the close. The fact that sellers were unable to take out friday's low by even a tick indicates to me bulls are in control so far. If sellers are going to try and wrestle the ball away I would think they would want to hold it beneath the 1633.75 CLVN. If they are unable to do so then bulls will be gunning to ramp it back up to 1645 scene of the crime then 1647.75 CHVN for starters and 1656 beyond that. If sellers have some conviction, then back to 1626.5 then 1621 with 1613 below that. We have some important data out at 9am that could cause chop for the first 30 mins and then dictate the direction on the day. Longest time frames are still wildly bullish. Daily time frame is balancing to bearish.

Levels Above: 1633.75 CLVN**, 1645 breakdown level, 1647.75 CHVN**,1651 nvpoc*, 1656 mc vpoc**

Levels Below: 1626.5 CHVN***, 1621 CHVN*, 1613 CHVN***, 1605.5-1594.25 gap

Hypo#1: ES opens OAIR and chops for 30 mins but bulls are able to build acceptance above 1634 and then grind it higher thru the day with occasional selling rips.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and chops and sellers are able to hold below 1634 and grind it lower to 16226.5 then 1621.

Hypo#3- ES opens OAIR and we have a balanced day that rotates between 1626 and 1640 filling in the low volume area on the composite.

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  #414 (permalink)
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1. Long 1626.5 CHVN/ 2nd vwap after ISM number and only printed 1626.25 weakly so I jumped in. Scaled after 3 min and 1.25 MA. Second scale given. Man almost a 10 handle max winner in only 10 minutes.

2. Long 1630.75 mid on 1.5 pt move down and what looks like buying absorption on footprint, this is vpoc though. Stopped after 2 min and 0 MF... I think this was a bad trade.

3. Long 1621.5 after 1621 CHVN was 1 ticked only. Market definitely weak after a strong mourning bounce off 1626.5. Scaled after 2 min and .5 MA. Second scale given. Could have stayed in trade all day long for ~18 pts.




Recap
ES opened OAIR and was immediately rejected by the 1633.75 CLVN and headed lower then higher in a 2-way session. Given friday's session, value and vpoc obviously shifted lower. Price closed higher, above value on heavy volume of about 2.1 mill. Profile shape is generally pretty balanced with a poorish hi above.

I made 2 solid trades today that both ran for over 10 pts which would be awesome if I traded multiple lots and was able to let a runner go. More importantly, The market responded to levels that I identified beforehand as likely to generate a response which is nice. If I can consistently identify those levels than trading multiple lots won't be a problem and maybe I can start making some cash. The mid trade today...I thought the low was in but maybe it was poorly chosen because if the low was in, after it ran up above 1633.75 CLVN it should not have fallen back below? I dont know... I am going to run the numbers on my mid trades this weekend, maybe I will dump that set up altogether unless it has crazy confluence going. I should have had more than 3 trades today as well I think given the volatility...

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  #415 (permalink)
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Economic data: trade balance

ON Profile: ES traded in an 8.75 pt range last night which included a bizarre 6 handle spike down and re-trace for some reason. The hi so far is pHi to the tick and it looks somewhat poor. The low is right around the pVPOC but if you exclude that spike it appears the ES has generally been rejecting pVAH. Volume is average at 215k. ON vpoc is sitting at 1635.75 and overall the profile shape is pretty balanced. Advantage bulls.



Yesterday featured strong rejection of the 1621 CHVN and then worked its way up the thin area of friday's profile. The ON session continued to fill in that thin area and for the moment it appears the bulls are looking for a price where sellers will step in again. Fridays sell off began from 1645.5 and 1647.75 is a big CHVN so that area might be attractive for sellers to re-enter today. Bulls have the ball and we have a possible OAOR on our hands. I anticipate responsive sellers to make the first push and the strength of that will dictate the day. If they can build value first inside pRange and then inside pVA then sellers are strong and look down to 1621 again. But I suspect bulls will enter around pVAH and then auction up to 1647 or possible 1651 nvpoc.

Levels Above: 1640.5 ONHI/HVN from fri, 1645.5 breakdown level, 1647.75 CHVN**, 1651 nvpoc *, 1656.5 CHVN**

Levels Below: 1633.75 pVAH, 1631 nvpoc, 1626.5 CHVN, 1621 CHVN**, 1613 CHVN**

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR/OR and sellers make first push down to pVAH where bulls step in and auction up to 1647 area and sellers step in.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR/OR and buyers make push but fail at ONHI and sellers step in. If they build acceptance inside pVA then look for move back to 1621.

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  #416 (permalink)
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1. Long 1633.25 pVAH/2nd vwap/CLVN on 2.5 pt move. Tight stop on this one since I would like to get long below around 1631 nvpoc as well potentially. Scaled after 6 min and .75 MA. Second scale given.

2. Long 1629 HVN/ledge from yday on 8 pt move down. Stopped after 7 min and 1.0 MF.

3. Sold 1633.5 mid/CLVN/ledge on 5 pt move. Man crazy day so far and not sure if this will work but took it. ES broke down from 1632.25 earlier so hoping sellers re-enter with this confluence. Stopped after 8 min and 1.0 MF. Well I got stopped out a tick off the hi of the move...




Recap
ES opened with a 1 handle sell off followed by a 7 handle open drive type move only for sellers to enter at the same price as they did on friday and wack it all the way down to the same level they did on friday before ripping it back up to the mid. Wild day. End result is overlapping higher value and higher vpoc. Price finished lower and inside value on high volume of about 1.8 mill. ES continuing to thoroughly auction the thin part of fridays profile. Strong buyers again present at 1621 and strong sellers at 1645. Will they be there on the third test? Im going to bet not.

Such a disappointing day today... had I gotten in at the two levels I had marked pre-open they would have been monster trades (if I traded size). First one I wasn't even close to getting on since I truly was waiting for 47's to print before getting in since the market opened so strong. But the long from 1621 I tried getting in on and tried lifting the 1622.5 offer, missed it, kept my bid in there and it never came back. Blah blah, I missed the trade. I did add "buy market" and "sell market" buttons to my DOM after that trade so next time I will be in it. The first trade I actually did do was in my plan from this morning and it did work for about 4 pts, nothing special. The other two I thought were legit but they didnt work out. Tomorrow is another day...

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  #417 (permalink)
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Experience: Beginner
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Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
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Economic data: ADP, productivity, factory orders, ISM

ON Profile: We have a 10.5 pt range on 240k so far which is higher than average. The hi is 1.25 pts above yesterdays settlement and the low is a tick above yesterdays low. Vpoc sitting 1624. Profile shape is tapered at the high with a boxy middle that fills out into a distribution near the bottom.



Very interesting day we have on tap. Some important econ data out at 9 so that could set the tone for the day. ES has balanced the last 2 days within the lower tail of friday's big sell off/thin zone. Yesterday it auctioned higher back up to the breakdown zone and found sellers waiting again who took it down to Mondays low where buyers were found, again. MC vpoc for last 2 days is 1631.5 and overnight session hi is just 3 ticks above it and we are currently trading 1624. Sellers have the ball here and I dont think a 3rd RTH test of 1621 will hold and below that is thin, with 1613 CHVN being last area of real support IMO until 1600 and 1592 which is possible today. If buyers are able to hold 1621 again then back up to 1645.

Levels Above: 1635.75 LVN, 1642.75 nvpoc, 1645.75 pHi, 1647.75 CHVN*, 1651 nvpoc**, 1656 CHVN**

Levels Below: 1621 CHVN, 1615.25 CLVN, 1613 CHVN**, 1608 BAL, 1600, 1592 BAH***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR below value and responsive buyers make first push but fail around 1627 HVN/1631.5 MC vpoc and sellers enter and slam it, potentially down to 1592.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and sellers make first push to below 1621 but cant hold and bulls auction it back up to 1645 through the day.

Hypo#3- ES opens OD lower, get on board!

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  #418 (permalink)
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1. Sold 1622.75 at bottom of a big 6 pt move down trying to play for a breakdown, could be a disaster... Instantly 7 ticks against me. Scaled after 3 min! Second scale given.

2. Sold 1622.75 again on 2.75 pt move up. There is an LVN here with a nice ledge above and if this level doesn't hold I think the bear case is over for today. I don't like how it went below pLo and then came back. Scaled after 8 min and 1.0 MA. Second scale given.

3. Long 1612.75 on 1.5 pt pb after missing it on first touch of 1613 CHVN. Strong move down from IBLO but we have a very pronounced vpoc above at 1615.5 which could act as a magnet. Scratched after 25 minutes and 2.25 MA vs 1.0 MF because it printed my stop 3 times so I held on and decided to scratch-seeing decent buying come in now actually.... will try to get long at the low depending how they treat it. Would have been loser.

4. Long 1608.5 bottom of balance from breakout after 8.25 printed weakly and looks like iceberg bid coming in at 8.5 so I joined. Thinking could see a move back up to vpoc before an afternoon yard sale. Scaled after 13 min and 1.0 MA. Interestingly there was a pretty sharp break of lows by only 1 tick with immediate ramp up that resembled yesterdays 1 tick of the low that ended up being the low of the day. Second scale given. Did trade up 8+ handles to vpoc as suspected and has now come off 4 handles so far so keep that in mind for future reference as the bounce off lows was very strong.

5. Long 1607 on 2.5 pt mvoe down basically taking a chance that the LOD is in given the strength of the bounce off it and i'm wrong with new lows. Scaled after 3 min and .25 MA. Second scale given. Admittedly once I put the trade on and walked away because I didn't want to watch it.




Recap
ES opened OAIR below value and pushed higher but was strongly rejected before it could enter pVA. 1621 double bottom was taken out and price exploration lower ensued all the way down to the nonfarms breakout low to the tick. Vpoc and value are decidedly lower. Price closed near the lows but inside value on heavy volume of about 2.3 mill. We have a good sized red candle on the daily and the gap zone below awaits.

Biggest winning day for me so far with this style of trading and I am pretty happy about it. The money is nice but its better that my first hypothesis of the day was pretty spot on and my context reading was good. That first trade was a horrible entry being a tick off the bottom of a 6 pt move and I debated waiting for a little pullback to the dVPOC at 1624.25 but just decided to let it fly. Luckily it didn't go 1 more tick against me otherwise it would have been a loser since I wasnt using a manual stop on that one. All other trades I described above so I won't rehash but I am happy with them and all gave second scales. Interesting how the market stopped at the breakout low to the tick. I cant imagine that will hold again and literally its an air pocket until 1594.25 but maybe support at 1600? Also interesting how sellers entered from 1629 today, be interesting to see if that is a level to carry forward given the magnitude of the sell off. Finally, today was a good day and the last few weeks have been good for me, but is it because of me or is the market just throwing some berries off? Hopefully its the former.

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  #419 (permalink)
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Economic data: claims, ecb presser

ON Profile: ES has a 10 pt range so far on light volume of about 200k so far. The low is above pLo and just 3 ticks below pClose so there was no further selling interest. The hi is 1616.75 which is just a few ticks above the afternoon hi, not sure if that is coincidence or not. ON vpoc sitting at 1612.5 which is just about inline with yesterdays vpoc and the 1613 CHVN. Profile shape is kind of unusual with a very distinct p-shape that just had its top taken out by a bit.



I don't think I am alone in wishing the markets had sold off overnight and we would have an OAOR gap down with the potential to buy near 1594 for a big rally back up but c'est la vie. Tomorrow is the big nonfarms number and I suspect people will be wanting to do anything crazy ahead of it. Combined with the fact we are set for an OAIR near the 1613 CHVN I am thinking we have a rotational day on tap with an upside bias as longer term trends are still positive. I won't be looking long near pLo unless a probe below it is quickly rejected. If sellers can build acceptance in the gap then I look for a move down to 1594. The upside is a bit trickier as far as initiating shorts. 1619 is the CLVN dividing the balances areas centered by the 1613 and 1626 CHVNs and is also confluent with yIBLO and a swing hi from yesterday so that might be an interesting area. Additionally 1621 area was double bottom from this week. Then above is the 1626 CHVN and 1629 pHi where sellers entered aggressively yesterday. Tough day to read and I think this will be a really good day to study after the fact.

Levels Above: 1613 CHVN, 1619 CLVN*, 1626 CHVN**, 1629 pHi, 1635.75 LVN**

Levels Below: pLo 1605.5, 1600?, 1594.25 BAH*, 1592.5 nvpoc*, 1589 CHVN**

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR inside value and chops, probes below pLo but is rejected then rotates up to 1619 and is rejected again and closes near 1613.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and chops, pushes higher to 1619 and is rejected then sells off down to 1594 where buyers step in.

Hypo#3- ES grinds higher all day up to 1626 or possibly 1635.

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  #420 (permalink)
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1. Long 1608.75 mid on 4 pt pb. Market opened and probed below pLo and was swiftly rejected and built value inside pRange with vpoc at 1610.75 currently so expecting test up to 1619 today. Decent selling response off HOD though so not sure about this. Stopped after 2 min and 0 MF. Here is why I think this trade was stupid. The first pullback to mid worked well as aggressive demand bid up the spoos and it built value there and chopped around before pulling back. On the mid I took, the market shot up to highs and just as swiftly came back down.

2. Sold 1605.5 pLo on 2 pt move, scratched it instantly after it spiked 6 ticks in my face. Didn't get filled on first touch and should have pulled on 2nd touch but didnt. Would have been loser with auto stop, winner with manual.

3. Long 1603.5 dVAL/ 1st vwap/IBLO. We have a very strong bounce off the low and entered back into dVA but got rejected by pLo/vwap which is a negative. However, I think the bounce off low is more important context and combined with fact that I think the top of the profile looks incomplete and can see a move up to 1619 yet I took the long. Scaled after 5 min and .25 MA. Second scale given.

4. Sold 1621 CHVN on 5 pt move into the close, def not recommened but trying to call a top considering non-farms tomorrow and maybe people will take profits into close. Stopped after 8 min and .5 MF. Dumb.




Recap
Wild, rotational day in the ES today. A deep probe into the gap zone was strongly rejected and ES then rotated all the way back up to the other side of balance around 1613 CHVN and nearly to the 1626 CHVN. Interestingly we still end up with overlapping lower value and vpoc. price closed on hi's and above value on very heavy volume of about 2.3 mill. Daily candle has a nice long wick on the bottom.

Man my trading sucked donkey today, 3 out of the 4 trades I did were garbage. On the other hand, the one good trade I did do was awesome and with size could have been held for max winner of over 20 pts. But I am still a one lot trader and one day I will stop making these foolish trades that prevent me from graduating to 2 lots. I firmly believe that as long as I can manage my risk and keep my losers small and stay in the game without losing too much that I will figure this out. So we found another area in 1596 that buyers aggressively entered because they thought it to be too cheap. Last major selling response started at 1629 yesterday so maybe that is the ultimate destination for this auction and then see what happens from there.

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  #421 (permalink)
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Economic data: nfp

ON Profile: NFP is out and ES is up about 8 pts from the close. Range is 15.25 pts and volume is very heavy at 428k so far. We have a potential double distribution forming and vpoc is still in the lower one at 1622.



ES is set to open OAOR with a gap higher on the news. A ~1630 open places us near the upper end of the balance area centered around 1626 CHVN with extremes at 1635 and 1618 and given the bullish bias it will be interesting to see how much higher bulls can push it or if it gets rejected back to 1626 and possibly lower. I will look to fade 1635 area but if it is accepted then will try long up to 1624/45/47 area and possible higher. If 1618 cant hold then I look for a move back to 1613 CHVN and 1608 nvpoc.

Levels Above: 1635.75 LVN 6-5**, 1642.75 nvpoc, 1645.5 breakdown area, 1647.75 CHVN**, 1651 nvpoc*

Levels Below: 1626 CHVN, 1618 HVN, 1613 CHVN/1611.5HVN**, 1608 nvpoc*, 1605.25 LVN/dbl btm

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR and pushes higher but fails at 1635.75 and sellers auction lower down to 1618 and possibly lower before buyers step in.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAOR and responsive sellers make first push but stall around 1626/1621 where bulls auction up to 1635 and possibly higher.

Hypo#3- ES opens OD higher.

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  #422 (permalink)
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1. Sold 1631.5 1st vwap/ dVAH after opening out of balance then coming back into value and bouncing. Stop at HOD. Stopped after 1 min and 0 MF. Dang.

2. Long 1637 dVPOC on 1.25 pt pb. Market strong like bull and counting on LVN at 1635.75 to hold. Had to plug my nose on this buy. 13 pt IB which is wide so maybe not a whole lot of RE today. Scaled after 1 min and 0 MA. Second scale given.

3. Sold 1638.5 (2 ticks below IBHI) as it seems to be unable to gain any traction above IB. Tight 6 tick stop 2 ticks above HOD with target below 1635. Scratched after 3 min because the hi looks so poor. Would have been loser.

4. Sold 1638.25 vpoc after market re-entered IB on good selling response after almost tagging 1642.75 nvpoc. Big ledge below at 16367 I am hoping fails. I am wrong above IBHI/last swing hi of 1640. Scaled after 55 min and 1.5 MA. Second scale given after about 3 hours.

5. Long 1633.25 ONHI/mid/dVAL/eth vwap/OPEN on 3.25 pt move down. Very pronounced vpoc above at 1637.5 and some general confluence around this level so I decided to take the long here. Small ledge below at 1632 that might offer further support. Scratched after 4 min and 1.5 MA, I think I can buy this back a bit lower and get a little extra wiggle room.

6. Long 1632.75 for reasons above. Scaled after 5 min and .5 MA. Second scale given. Rotation back to vpoc super fast. Eventual new highs made- max theo winner 11 pts!




Recap
ES opened OAOR with a gap higher on non farms report. The gap fill failed just before final target before bulls auctioned it higher and built value around 1638. Value and vpoc shifted completely higher. Price closed higher and inside value on heavy volume of about 1.8 mill. Profile shape ended up being p-shaped with a very prominent vpoc at 1637.5. Additionally, price has rallied some 45 handles since yesterday morning's low which is pretty significant and we are now in the balance area defined by the 1647.75 CHVN with 1652.75 LVN being upper edge and 1633.5 being lower end. So the sellers who entered on Wednesday at 1629 aggressively were not present today. The next area where sellers entered aggressively was 1645.75 but that was a second test so I don't think it will hold again. Perhaps 1647.75 0r 1656 will bring out the sellers again.

I escaped today with a positive pnl. Had I known 1626 CHVN rejection would still be contextually significant I would not have taken the first trade and in fact probably would have been long at 1626 on the nose but I didn't and probably should have. Mental error and I paid the price. Second trade worked but I give myself a D for execution because I pulled my 1636.25 bid at last second which would have been a better entry counting on the 1635.75 LVN to hold but I pussed out. It sucks the market didnt give me the 1642.75 nvpoc fill, that would have been a sick trade, oh well. I could have entered lower after no fill but I struggle at that... The last trade I did was awesome and I notice awais on twitter did the same one which makes me feel good when I am doing the same trades as other good traders are doing. I end the week positive both today and overall and thats good. Looking forward to a good weekend out of town then back at it monday morning!

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  #423 (permalink)
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Economic data: none

ON Profile: We have a p-shaped profile that has extended above pHi by a few points. 12.25 pts of range on average volume of about 200k so far. Vpoc is at 1645, a pt above pHi. The low coincides with pVAL and the hi is right around the 1645.75 breakdown pt from last week as well as just below the 1647.75 CHVN.



ES popped above pHi but has since re-treated back into pRange. ES is set to open OAIR inside/around VAH. With no data on the table today I think we have a rotational day on tap that explores the boundaries of the current balance area we are in, bounded by 1652.75 CLVN to the upside and 1634 to the downside. Friday's p-shaped profile had a very prominent vpoc which i anticipate will be re-visited today and potentially offer up support for the initial exploration higher. If that does not hold, the combined profiles from thursday and friday are quite thin down to 1611.5. The composite does offer support around 1629/26 and 1613 though. Longer term time frames remain extremely bullish while the daily time frame is balancing.

Levels Above: 1647.75 CHVN*, 1651 nvpoc**, 1652.75 CLVN**, 1656 CHVN, 1661.5 MP single/LVN**

Levels Below: 1637.5 nvpoc*, 1632 afternoon low/composite ledge, 1629 CHVN, 1626 CHVN/pLo**

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR inside value and pushes lower to 1637.5 nvpoc and bounces up to 1647.75 and is rejected then sells off down to 1626.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and sells off to 1632 to pick up buyers then grinds higher thru the day up tp 1647.75/1651.

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  #424 (permalink)
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1. Sold 1647 right on open after looks like immediate rejection of 1647.75 CHVN. Scratched immediately, some crazy fills going on, will re-add higher if I can. Would have been winner but had to take 6 ticks heat.

2. Sold 1647.75 after 1648.5 traded. Really looking for responsive sellers off open here back to 1637.5 nvpoc. Scaled after 2 min and .75 MA. Second scale given. 5 pt theo winner within first 13 minutes. Stopped 3 ticks short of my target but basically did exactly what I thought!

3. Sold 1643.25 mid on 5 pt move. We have a very poor low and acceptance inside pRange so I think it makes sense. Stopped after 8 min and .25 MF.




Recap
ES opened OAOR with an upside gap that quickly got filled. Vpoc and value shifted overlapping higher. Price closed incrementally higher and inside value and inside pRange on average volume of about 1.5 mill. Today had no break of the IB which makes it a non-trend day and this occurs only about 4% of the time. Really neither a motivated buyer or seller showed up today. Market did digest and hold the gains from the past 2 days.

Really happy the trade off the open worked out today just as I wrote it up when I put it on. I expected a seller to be present around 1647.75 and combined with the gap open I thought the trade made sense. First entry might have been a little aggressive but it would have worked too. Alternatively, it sucks I didn't get the long off 1637.5 nvpoc because I was really expecting a bounce there as described in my pre-market report. The mid trade...Ive said it before but didn't get a chance to run stats this weekend to confirm but I am close to dumping that set up. Today is a scratch and tomorrow is another chance to earn some money and make progress.

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  #425 (permalink)
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Economic data: inventories

ON Profile: Sharp sell off overnight caused by some Japan news. We have 17 pts range on heavy volume of 303K so far with ES sitting just a few ticks off lows as I write. ON vpoc at 1628. Profile shaped like a b. The hi is just a tick above yesterdays settlement price so clearly sellers were in control from the start. The low is just 1 tick below friday's low.



ES is set to open with a big gap down today right around the 1626 CHVN where it found support on friday for what eventually turned into a 22 pt rally (including yesterday). Will buyers defend this level again? I am inclined to believe yes though perhaps the open gap from 1624.25-1625.75 gets filled first. I think we get responsive buyers on the open and their first order of business is to get above the 1633 CLVN and then tackle the 1637.5 nvpoc that was left open yesterday where I initially expect rejection. Entirely possible late in the day for a drive thru and back into pRange though. If 1626 does not hold then we have minor support around 1621 and then nothing until 1613/1611.5 where I expect big buyers to be waiting. Longer time frames are bullish and daily time frame is balancing.

Levels Above: 1633.5 CLVN, 1637.5 nvpoc/pLo**, 1642 nvpoc*, 1647.75 CHVN***

Levels Below: 1626 CHVN**, 1624.25 gap fill, 1621 CHVN, 1613 CHVN*/1611.5 HVN*, 1608 nvpoc**

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR and responsive buyers immediately step in and aggressively auction it higher up to 1637.5 where it either pauses and resumes trend up late in day or balances rest of day.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAOR and auctions higher up to 1633 and fails then searches lower down to 1613.

Hypo#3- ES opens OD- go with.

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  #426 (permalink)
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1. Long 1627 OPEN after poking thru by 5 ticks and seeing potential big absorption on footprint on pullback. Super dicey trade for me. Scratched after 2 min and .5 MA vs .5 MF as I just feel like there has to be a better opportunity to come along. Would have been winner but no second scale- im happy with scratching that.

2. Sold 1637.5 nvpoc on 4.5 pt move up. Debatable whether to wait for pLo prints but I went and took it. Stopped after 2 minutes, total stop run. Used auto stop and had 1 tick slippage. Should have waited for pLo to print. Dang now 8 handles lower and I was stopped at exact hi tick...

3. Long 1629.75 IBHI/MP intraday single/LVN on 3.5 pt move down. Scratched after 5 min and 1.75 MA vs. 25 MF, will try and add lower. Would have been loser.

4. Long 1628.5 after scratching above trade. Scaled after 8 min and 0 MA. No second scale.

5. Long 1626.75 open. Why did I put this trade on? Scratched after 1 min... Would have been winner.

I think I am going to take a break for a bit, not sure why I am doing trades in addition to possibly fighting market context...




Recap
ES opened OAOR and initially found buyers in the mornings who then turned into sellers in the afternoon. After the bell, we have value and vpoc decidedly lower. Price closed right around where it opened and inside value on heavy volume of about 2.0 mill. Profile shape looks like a fugly double distribution with the main LVN at 1634.75. Daily candle looks like a doji with a much longer wick above then below indicating some indecision about where to go from here.

Man I traded like a clown today, really just didn't have any confidence about what I was doing on any of my trades except for the nvpoc short which I ended up getting stopped out of on the exact hi tick of the day that would have eventually turned into a possible max winner of 12 pts. But I deserved that. First of all, I went in blind, didn't wait to see how it would trade there but that isn't so bad. Whats bad is that I knew with pLo just 3 ticks higher it was likely that there would be a touch there so I should have waited for that to happen before selling. Finally, I need to stop using auto stops. Time and again I have turned a full loser into a scratch or winner by using a manual stops instead of auto and today was another example of a trade I could have saved. End of day I finish down 12 bucks so I appreciate the cheap learning experience...

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  #427 (permalink)
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Economic data: none

ON Profile: Kind of a p-shaped profile with a 10.75 pt range and light volume of 190k. The low is below pClose by just 1.25 pts and the hi is just below yesterdays HVN and a previous vpoc at 1637.5. Current vpoc is 1635, just above pVAH and the LVN from yesterday.



Yesterday was an indecisive day for the ES, pushes higher and lower were both rejected and it closed right where it opened. So far the ES has pushed higher overnight into the upper distribution of yesterdays profile. We have no data out today and are set for an OAIR open which doesn't set the table for a wild day. On the composite, we are set to open near the 1634 CLVN which coincides with the 1634.5 LVN/VAH from yesterday so it will be interesting to see if that confluence plays any role today in dictating a direction. We have a 7 pt gap higher so I am inclined to give the bulls the bias. Longer term trends are exremely bullish, shortest term is balancing. Overall expecting a rotational day.

Levels Above: 1637.5 CHVN, 1642 nvpoc*, 1647.75 CHVN**, 1651 nvpoc/1652.75 CLVN*, 1656 CHVN**

Levels Below: 1634.5 LVN/CLVN??, 1626.5 CHVN/1625.25 nvpoc, 1621 CHVN, 1613 CHVN/1611.5 HVN**

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR and weakly pushes lower then bulls step in and grind higher to 1642 nvpoc or possibly 1647.75 where sellers step in and knock it down to open.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and pushes higher to 1637.5 CHVN and fails then grinds lower to 1625 to pick up buyers.

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  #428 (permalink)
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1. Long 1634 LVN/CLVN/on vpoc/eth vwap on 4.5 pt mvoe down. Responsive sellers in control so not sure if this trade makes sense as the ONHI was taken out but only by a few ticks. Stopped after 6 min and 1.0 MF.

2. Sold 1634...okay I might be getting spun around here but if my second hypothesis is correct then the market is pushing towards 1625.25 nvpoc after being rejected from 1637.5 CHVN and pushing into pVA. We have a poorish low but maybe that means a buyer was found? Scaled after 2 min and .5 MA. Second scale given almost instantly after that.

3. Long 1626.25 after 1625.25 nvpoc printed weakly and we have a wide IB. This could be considered 2nd or 3rd test down here though which is not good. Stopped after 3 min and .25 MF. Sellers in control today so far at least.

4. Long 1624.5 dVAL on 2.25 pt pb after strong vertical bounce off lows of 1622.5. Potential problems are that it failed 2 ticks into the IB and dropped out again combined with fact that sellers are in control today. Stop is at LOD. Scratched after 3 min when it spiked 4 ticks against me then popped right back up. No confidence in the trade/myself... Would have been a winner, but just one scale so thats fine.

5. Long 1620 1.5 IB on 4.5 pt move down. Scratched instantly, I am just constantly buying today and the market keeps going down... Would have been a loser.

6. Long 1613.5 CHVN after 1612.25 printed. Was 1611.5 bid but petered out before it got there- expecting a bounce in this area despite trend down day type as we are quite extended so far at 26 pts range. Scaled after 4 min and .25 MA. No second.

7. Long 1613 CHVN after only 1 ticking the low and what looked to be like an aggressive bid come in to the market. 3 min into the trade its gone 5 ticks my way but it should be higher if it truly was the buying response i was looking for. Scratched after 7 min, not behaving as I thought it would. Would have been loser.

8. Re-bot 1613 after my 1611.5 traded and I was not filled there or 1612. Scratched after 2 min and 1.5 MA as now have double bottom. Would have been loser.




Recap
ES opened OAIR above value and began an all day sell off shortly after the bell. Value and vpoc firmly lower although it was a very trend-like day so value did not quite exist. Price closed ~17 pts lower but due to the fact they opened +10 it seems like they got crushed. Volume was heavy at about 2.1 mill. Profile shape is fugly, kind of triple distribution-like. The daily candle is a nice big red bar that travels from one CHVN (1637.75) thru the MC CHVN (1626.5) and finally finds its footing at the 1613 CHVN but only barely so.

Terrible day, I give myself a capital F for how I traded today. Trend down day, albeit a sneaky one for the first 12 handles or so, and I have 7 buys and 1 sell. The 1 sell just happened to be the best trade of them all too. Market was kind enough to serve up a juicy entry around 1621.75 and I pulled my offer because I wanted to wait for 1624 HVN instead. I am extremely lucky to escape with a scratch but make no mistake I completely and totally fucked this day up. I don't know if anyone could have anticipated a trend day given the recent context and I know I sure didn't. Maybe there was great info to be gleaned from yesterdays doji combined with the strong move down off the open today? Tomorrow is another day...

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  #429 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
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Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 590 received

Economic data: claims, retail, biz inventories

My charts are totally messed up today so no post this morning and perhaps no trading if I can't fix it.

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  #430 (permalink)
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1. Long 1606 mid on 4.5 pt pb after 7.5 pt move up. I think overall day context supports long as the market opened OAIR, dipped below pLo then re-entered range 7 pts. Scaled after 4 min and .5 MA. Second scale given.

2. Sold 1616.25 LVN/afternoon hi from yesterday on 4.25 pt move. Market grinding higher so this is a fade and not sure of it but I wouldn't call this a strong rally so I took a shot. Stopped after 12 min and .5 MF. Just wouldn't go down...

3. Sold 1623 HVN on 7.5 pt move up- feel like I am stepping in front of a bus that is moving deceptively fast. Scratched after 19 min and .75 MF vs .5 MA, this thing just won't go down. Would have been loser after going 7 ticks my way as soon as I scratched it. Done for day, no need to fight this market two days in a row...




Recap
ES opened OAIR and quickly went below pLo and then popped back into pRange and beginning a steady grind higher through the day reversing all of yesterdays selloff. No value today and vpoc shifted all the way to the top at the close. Price closed just off the hi and I am not sure how volume was today due to the roll. Wild back to back trend days. Really don't know what to make of this action besides the fact that if you thought bears had the advantage after yesterday you were wrong.

I dont know how I am supposed to evaluate my trading today. I got long at 1606 and after going 2 ticks against me initially it never traded that price again and theoretically gave me a max winner of almost 28 pts. But I trade 1 lots and never made another buy and ended up making zero dollars so I guess overall I traded like crap. Maybe the best buy was after the dip below pLo it re-entered and went up to 1607 then pulled back to pLo for the backtest and held. Probably should have gotten long there. That roughly coincided with the mid and vwap as well. Still have to figure out my charts as I had two computers going today with some charts being back-adjusted and some not making for an awful lot of mental math being done.

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  #431 (permalink)
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Economic data: michigan

ON Profile: ES traded in a relatively narrow 8.25 pt range on volume of 228k which might be a lot considering the roll, tough to say. The hi was above pHi and the hi from 2 days ago as well by just a few ticks. The low was an HVN from yesterday to the tick. Vpoc currently at 1629.5. Profile shape is generally balanced with a poorer looking low and a nice tapered hi.



Tricky day on tap considering I am still dealing with chart issues and we've had two back to back trend days of equal magnitude but opposite in direction. Overnight ES held on to almost all of its gains so you would think the bulls have the edge thus far, especially considering the last 3 days have a hi of 1633.75, 1632.25 and 1633.5 so I am leery of shorting that area and think acceptance above there targets 1642.75 nvpoc and potentially higher. To the downside, we have 1619.5 as the most traded price of the week and given that the emotions of the market I don't know if we can trust it to act as support but its all I can offer given my bogus charts. Michigan at 9:55 might cause chop for the first 25 minutes then a breakout. Longer term trends are wildly bullish, short term is balancing.

Levels Above: 1636.25 nvpoc, 1642.75 nvpoc, 1650 CHVN

Levels Below: 1619.5 mc chvn, 1614.5 MP single

Hypo#1- ES rotates lower to 1619.5 to pick up buyers then grins higher up through 1633 to 1642.

Hypo#2- ES pushes higher through 1633 level but fails once again then sellers push lower to 1619. I wouldn't rule out another move back down to 1605 or lower given the vol lately.

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  #432 (permalink)
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1. Sold 1627.5 IBLO/ledge on 4 pt move up. Prior move up stopped 2 ticks short then sold off 4 handles before finding support at dVAL then moving back up to here so not sure if this trade makes sense but there is good acceptance below the IB with an HVN at 1624.75 and we have a rejection from prior 3 day hi's above. The actual low itself does look pretty good though. Vpoc and mid/vwap are just above at 1628.25 so I am wrong above there. Scaled after 3 min and 0 MA. Second scale given. Man basically went 6 pts in my favor instantly.

2. Long 1618 below 1619.5 CHVN on 4.75 pt move down. Not liking how on this rotation down sliced through vpoc at 1624.75 as if buyers no longer felt that price was fair but took the trade because I was looking long in the area and it was a good rotation. Really a bit whippy, went 7 ticks in favor then instantly swept down then up... Scaled after 19 min and .5 MA. Second scale given.




Recap
ES opened OAIR and moved above the 3 days of similar hi's we've seen then back into pRange giving sellers the cue to wack it a bit. We end up with a bit of a rotational day at the end and vpoc lower than yesterday and value higher but yesterdays value doesn't count so hard to say. Price finished just off the lows on better than average volume but it's hard to say because of the roll. So it seems that 1635 area is just too expensive as sellers keep emerging there but we didn't run all the way down to pLo so maybe we are putting in a bit of a floor here before taking out those 1635.

I'm constantly reminded every day I trade about a line from Daltons book: you must do the trade. I find I am able to spot good locations better each day and read context better but only about half the time am I actually doing the trade and that is disappointing. I need to work on that. Because he is right, actually doing the trade is the most important part which sounds obvious as if you dont put the trade on you aren't going to make any money. But it is about sacking up, casting your lot and seeing whether the market agrees or disagrees with you. Stepping in front of a bus, going long when the selling is vicious and putting real money on the line is the only way to make progress. And thus far I am not doing the trade as much as I need to to get where I need to be. Next week will be all about "doing the trade"...

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  #433 (permalink)
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First off, it seems my charts are fixed now. If so, the solution was to exclude microsoft security essentials from scanning sierra chart files as it was interfering with SC's ability to download properly. I checked my windows update history and I did indeed have an MS essentials update on thursday night when the problem started. So if anyone has problems with SC in the future, this might be the solution. Ok lets go to the recently back-adjusted chart...



We can see the market clearly likes 1620.5 the most and last week was spent rotating around it and indeed last weeks vpoc was the same as our mc vpoc. ES seems to be indecisive at the moment given last weeks action and desire to hang around the mc vpoc. Perhaps nobody is willing to pay to move the contract away from it ahead of next weeks important FOMC decision? I also included a downtrend line on the chart and it's not something that I really pay attention to or use actively but wanted to remind myself that in the short term it seems the big sell off from the all time hi is still kind of in control despite the fact that longer term trends are wildly bullish.

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  #434 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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Economic data: empire, housing

ON Profile: We have a p shaped profile with an 11.5 pt range on decent volume of 290k. The low is just below yesterdays vpoc while the hi is a tick below fridays hi and in the same area that has been the hi for 4 days running now. Vpoc at 1631.5.



ES opened some 7 handles above fridays close with sellers making no real effort to close that gap as buyers ripped it higher up to the ~1634 resistance level that has held going on 4 days now. ES is set to open OAIR above value with a gap of ~12 pts above prior settlement- bulls are in control and market can do what it wants but I would be very surprised if that level holds once again. Maybe there are no buyers up there and we will peak above then fall back inside like friday-totally possible. But until that happens I will be looking long. Perhaps responsive sellers show up on the open trying to take it back inside value and fail then bulls step in and rip it up to 1641.75 CHVN. Longer term time frames are very bullish, shorter time frames are balanced to bearish.

Levels Above: 1636.75 nvpoc, 1641.75 CHVN*, 1645 nvpoc/1646.75 CLVN**, 1650 CHVN***

Levels Below: 1627.25 LVN, 1624.75 nvpoc*, 1620.5 mc vpoc**, 1615 CHVN, 1607 CHVN**

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR above value and responsive sellers push to ~1626 to pick up buyers then grinds higher thru the day up to 1645 or higher potentially.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and pushes higher but fails once again around 1634 level then sellers wack it down to pLo and potentially lower.

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  #435 (permalink)
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1. Long 1637, horrible entry, but it feels like bulls are in total control and we have a very poor hi above and I didn't think I would get a better price so I paid up. Instantly 5 ticks against me. Opening context was a large gap higher within range that had no real selling response from responsive sellers and acceptance above prior 4 day hi ressitance level. Scratched after 14 minutes and 1.75 MA vs 1.75 MF because it went 7 ticks in favor then came back to entry which I did not think it should have done if it was going to continue going higher. Would have been winner after an hour but max winner of 3.75 pts. A for idea, D for execution.

2. Long 1625.25 ledge ahead of 1624.75 nvpoc on 2 pt move down as part of an extended 8 pt afternoon move down. Debated waiting for the nvpoc but went with this because I wanted to be a little more aggressive. Scaled after 10 min and 1.5 MA. Second scale given. Dang, sick trade, ended up going for over 10 handles! A for idea, A- for execution.




Recap
ES opened OAIR with a strong gap up and quickly moved above the prior 4 days resistance level but then kind of petered out. An afternoon swoon brought new lows and a strong bounce right back to the key resistance level. Overall, we have higher value and vpoc, and a very prominent vpoc at that. Price finished higher on heavier volume of about 1.8 mill. I think its very interesting that it closed right at that key resistance level...buyers just dont have the juice for a close over it yet. The daily candle has long wicks above and below the body. We have the fed on wednesday so maybe tomorrow we just balance around 1634?

I'm overall happy with my trades today. First one I got impatient and jumped the gun and ended up with poor trade location but the idea was right. Second trade was sick! Oh what I wouldn't give for my first real 2 lot trade to be one like that and start me off on the right foot. Speaking of 2 lots, if the next two weeks go well and I continue to feel like I am making progress and understanding the market then I plan to start trading 2 lots first week of july, maybe the second week if its really slow because of the holiday. Until then though its helmet on and keep plugging away

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  #436 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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Economic data: CPI, housing

ON Profile: Relatively tight 7.25 pt range on average volume of about 200k so far. Profile shape is pretty balanced exept the middle area is more of a box shape. Vpoc is currently 1634.75. More or less the overnight session just traded yesterday's value area.



The data is out for today and ES is still within yesterdays value area. Ahead of tomorrow's fed meeting I am expecting a quiet balanced day with an upside bias. ES is currently set to open OAIR inside value but above that 4 day hi area of ~1634. I think yesterdays VAL might be a good spot to try a long while just above pHi may be a good spot for a short. Longer term time frames are super bullish while the short time frame is balancing.

Levels Above: 1641.75 CHVN*, 1645 nvpoc*, 1646.75 CLVN/ledge**, 1650 CHVN***

Levels Below: 1631.75 CHVN/pVAL*, 1623 CHVN*, 1620.5 mc vpoc***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR and pushes lower to 1631 area then grinds higher thru the day.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and pushes higher and pops above pHi but fails then grinds lower down to 1631.

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  #437 (permalink)
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1. Sold 1641.75 CHVN/pHi on 3.5 pt move. ES kind of grinding higher which I dont like but I took the trade. Not seeing immediate rejection, in fact it seems to be accepting prices here with 11k traded at my entry although its only gone 2 ticks against me. Went 6 ticks in favor but now back at entry and 2 ticks above again leaving pretty poor hi. Took out hi by only a tick and now 2 ticks back in favor but struggling to get below pHi. Vpoc shifted to 2 ticks below entry is that good or bad? Im thinking bad as we have 2 sided interest above pHi. Scratched after 39 min with 1.5 MF vs .75 MA. Good scratch, would have been loser.




Recap
ES opened OAIR inside value and grinded higher all day. Value and vpoc established clearly higher. Price closed higher and inside value on average volume of about 1.5 mill.

I got completely caught offsides today, really did not expect this scenario to play out. Once it became apparent up was the way it didn't even offer up any decent long entries, to my eye at least. It traded between the first and second vwaps the majority of the day and on a trend day I could justify a long solely based off 1st vwap but not today. I think we have to assume that tomorrow the bernanke will be market friendly. However, if he doesnt give the market what he wants then todays buyers will be desperate to unload.

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  #438 (permalink)
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Economic data: FOMC

ON Profile: ES traded in a 7.75 pt range with very light volume of only 165k which is typical for fomc day. The hi is just 1 tick above pHi while the low is 1641.25 which is a bit surprising as it didnt even explore the lower end of the top distribution from yesterday. Vpoc is 1644.25 but the profile shape is pretty boxy in the middle.



I really don't expect much activity ahead of the fomc- maybe an OAIR inside value with a 4-5 pt range but to keep an open mind the last meeting had an 11 pt range before the news and then a further sell off after the release so anything is possible. Given that ES broke out of its 4/5 day range yesterday in a very deceptively strong rally and the overnight session held on to those gains, the bias has to be to the upside. However, just above is a very key level at 1650 CHVN and the other side of balance at 1655.5 CLVN/MP single. Maybe we get a move up to there and rejection and back down to 1600 and below? A close above 1655 would really indicate to me that a trip up to new all time highs is in order. We shall see. Longer time frames are bullish, shorter time frame is balancing.

Levels Above: 1650 CHVN**, 1655.5 CLVN/MP single***, 1658.25 CHVN, 1671.25 nvpoc

Levels Below: 1639.75 LVN, 1638.5 MP single*, 1633.5 pLo/4 day hi**, 1623 CHVN/big bounce from fri, 1620 mc vpoc**

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR and chops around until fomc, then every man for himself, upside bias.

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  #439 (permalink)
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1. Long 1641.5 after ONLO taken out by only 2 ticks and this is pVAL and we already have 6 pts of range and looked like decent buying response off the low. I dont like how my stop is 1639.5 which is the LVN from yesterday and another potential buy pt but I thought I should jump in here. Scaled after 10 min and .25 MA. Second scale given. Max winner 5 pts.

2. Long 1638.5 MP single on 5.25 pt move down after fomc. Scaled after 3 min and 1.75 MA. No second scale.




Recap
ES opened OAIR inside value and chopped around as expected ahead of the fed. Then shit hit the fan and ES sold off over 20 pts into the close. Value and vpoc ended up overlapping lower but the profile shape indicates further downward exploration may be needed to find a buyer. Price closed down near the lows and outside of value on heavy volume of about 2.0 mill.

Everything went according to plan ahead of fomc. I had an emergency doctors appt. today right before Bernanke started speaking so I was not around to participate in the real action but truthfully I don't know how I would have done. I really had an upside bias and suspected that if the news was bad then yesterdays long would hit eject and that appears to be what happened. We are back inside the 4 day range from last week and having been rejected from above it seems we would need to re-test the lows again according to auction logic but we shall see. On a side note, todays gains brings my trading PNL to positive! My account is still negative after commissions but it feels like progress has been made. Tomorrow is another day.

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  #440 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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Economic data: claims, homes, philly fed, LEI

ON Profile: All in all we have a pretty balanced profile in a wild overnight session. Range is big at 18 pts and volume is very heavy at 450k so far. Vpoc currently at 1611.75. Buyers were found at the 1607 CHVN/1606 HVN and we are not trading around vpoc, down 13 pts.



Yesterday's selling was only cut off by the bell and as expected the ES went lower overnight in search of a buyer. ES is set to open OAOR but inside value of the balanced overnight session which to me indicates that perhaps sellers have been cut off, at least temporarily. Combined with the magnitude of the move from yesterday afternoon I am expecting dip buyers to give it a go. I think the key level will be the ONLO, if it is not broken or just merely probed below then accepted back above then the target above becomes 1620.5 MC vpoc with pLo just above it where I would expect rejection at least initially. However, if prices below 1606 are accepted then we look towards the 6-12 lo of 1601.25 and finally the remaining gap since the may non-farms report. Anticipating lots of volatility today. Longer time frames are wildly bullish, daily time frame is balancing and now we are near the lower end of that balance.

Levels Above: 1615 CHVN, 1620.5 mc vpoc**, 1622 pLo, 1625 HVN, 1631 CHVN*, 1635.5 4 day hi/afternoon hi/LVN**

Levels Below: 1607 CHVN/1605.5 ONLO**, 1601.25 6-13 lo*, 1590.5-1588.25 GAP**, 1586.25 nvpoc**, 1580.75 CHVN, 1576.5 CHVN***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR and sellers push to ONLO but fail where bulls grind it up to 1620.5/1622 and a decision has to be made to continue higher or turn lower again. Seeing 1635ish as potential hi of day if continues up.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAOR and responsive buyers jump in but fail near 1617 and then sellers enter and grind lower down to 1586 area.

Hypo#3- ES opens OD lower-jump on!

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1. Long 1613.5 below 1614.5 MP single/1615 CHVN on big rotation down in overnight session. Scratched after 3 min when a poor low formed. Would have been winner.

2. Long 1606.5 after open OAOR and initial move down failed 1 tick below ONLO. Taking chance responsive buyers come in and rip it higher. Stopped after 2 min and .75 MF.

3. Long 1605.25 mid/vwap/ONLO on 2.75 pt move down. Worried because this is second test after ES re-entered pRange and came back down but I missed the first because of the 9am number. Stopped after 1 min. Instant loser basically.

4. Sold 1600 on 3.75 pt move up trying to get on the short side today. Scratched after 3 min and .5 MA vs 1.0 MF because I want to try and re-enter at 1601.5 mid/vwap/LVN and its printing a lot of volume here inside dVA. Would have been a winner...

5. Sold 1599.5 after 1600 vwap printed lightly. Scratched after a minute because this feels strange and I think I can get a better price. Would have been a loser.

6. Sold 1600.75 mid for above reason. LVN at 1601.75 to possibly offer resistance help. Vpoc shifted to 1659.5 and its gone down several times and been unable to print below 1659.25s which is annoying. Scaled after 13 min and .75 MA. Second scale given but only after it had a nice short squeeze pop that went 7 ticks against me but stopped right at the VAH so would have been a great place to add.

7. Sold 1596 HVN/-1 vwap on a 3.75 pt bounce off the low which is now a double bottom so I am thinking this thing might crap out and also I think 1586.25 nvpoc is a realistic end of day target. Scratched after 11 min and 2.5 MF vs 1.25 MA. I was planning to hold this for 1592 winner so it went 10 ticks my way instantly but then struggled there and went 5 against me so I took it off. Was a winner.

8. Sold 1596 again, immediate scratch. Profile just does not look complete below and I want to latch onto a good short but from where? Dang, this was the spot... would have been winner to new lows.

9. Long 1586.5 after nvpoc printed 1 tick below so I jumped in on big move down. Definitely stepping in front of a bus here. Scaled after 13 min and 1.0 MA. No second scale.

10. Long 1581.25 after the 1580.75 mc vpoc I noted in pre-market was only taken out by 1 tick. ES down over 43 at this price so definitely extended here. Scaled after 1 min and .75 MA. Second scale given.

11. Long 1580.75 again for the same reason as above after the prior low was only taken out by a tick. Went 8 ticks my way and printed my exit but only 36 contracts and then 7 ticks against me. Stopped after 17 minutes and 2 MF.




Recap
ES opened OAOR and responsive buyers tried hard for 30 minutes but then gave way to aggressive sellers. Vpoc and value moved significantly lower. Price closed near the low end of the range, below value and on serious volume. About 3 mill traded during RTH which is the biggest I have seen in awhile. Importantly, the may 3rd non-farms gap was completely filled and price closed within the balance area running from mar 5 to may 3 with 1540 being the mc vpoc and 1521 being the lower boundry. Big red candle on the daily chart.

My trading was all over the board today. I really expected responsive buyers to show up as evidenced by my first two RTH trades and I paid the price. I did well to switch to a short bias but did not do well in holding trades. I think I gained some valuable experience today. Time for a rest...

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Hey Profiler,
I'm just now learning profiling and ran across this. Keep up the good work I will definitely follow from now on!

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  #443 (permalink)
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Hey Profiler,
I'm just now learning profiling and ran across this. Keep up the good work I will definitely follow from now on!

thanks man! feel free to ask any questions you may have as well and remember this is still a work in progress for me! also, maybe change the profile pic to one of you wearing a shirt or your dog or something?

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  #444 (permalink)
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Economic data: none

ON Profile: Large 14.5 pt range last night on heavy volume of 413k so far. The low is only 1.5 pts below the settlement while the hi is 1.25 pts above yesterdays vpoc. ON vpoc is exactly the same as yesterdays, 1596 so both sides clearly liking that price. P shaped profile which indicates short covering and no doubt after the large sell off over the last two days there would be some of that.



ES has sold off from 1649 to 1577 in the last two days making for a 72 pt travel range which is pretty extreme so its no surprise there was short covering into the close and overnight. ES had kind of a double distribution profile yesterday with an LVN at 1590-1592 separating the two. The overnight session primarily traded in the upper but going into the open we are looking at an open in the lower one as we are currently trading 1590. Will it choose to reject one and establish value in the other? I'll be looking short from the open, potentially at 1592 MP single but would feel a lot more confident about it if the ON vpoc were not above it at 1596. I think the short side will pay off today even if the market has an up day as I think there will be many dips. However, if we open above 1592 and sellers probe the lower balance area and are rejected then I think long up to 1603-1608 will work. Longer term time frames are still super bullish but the short term time frame is bearish.

Levels Above: 1592 MP single/LVN**, 1596 nvpoc, 1600 HVN, 1607 CHVN**, 1620.5 mc vpoc***

Levels Below: 1584 HVN, 1580.75 mc vpoc, 1576.5 CHVN/pLO CHVN***, 1567.25 CHVN

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR and rotates higher up to 1596 where sellers step in and push it to 1584 where buyers step in and grind it higher.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and sellers hit it immediately and the day rotates in lower balance area.

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1. Long 1584.25 HVN/close/2nd after ONLO printed weakly through by 1 tick and it seemed absorption on footprint at settlement. Tried getting long 1583.25 but missed and ended up paying up a full pt. Stopped after 4 min and .25 MF.

2. Long 1577.5 after the 1576.5 CHVN printed weakly and nice bounce so I paid up. Stopped after 3 min and .5 MF. This selling really caught me by surprise today...

3. Long 1572 nvpoc on big move down. Stepping in front of a bus. Instantly 5 ticks against me. Scratched after 2 min, will try and re-enter lower. Would have been winner by itself.

4. Long 1571.25 for same reason above. Seems like buyers are activated here. Scaled after 1 min and .25 MA. Second scale given.

5. Short 1582.5 IBLO/vwap/MID on big 5.5 pt move. Context maybe changing here as ES broke back into pRange after being accepted below it for awhile. Scaled after 2 min and .5 MA. No second scale, it appears context has changed the market is too short now.

6. Sold 1590.25 dVAH on big move up neat the close. Scratched trying to re-enter higher...
Re-entered at same price, man I screwed that up. Took 4 tick loser. Would have been a winner...Give myself an F for this trade.




Recap
ES opened OAIR and rejected yesterdays upper distribution by moving lower thru pLo before finding buyers at 1571.75 nvpoc/2X IBLO and then grinding higher the rest of the day for a wide ranged balance day. Value and vpoc were dragged lower. Price basically closed unch indicating the market is accepting these prices as far. Volume once again very heavy at about 2.4 mill thought not as heavy as yesterday. So after a 2 day 70 handle sell off the market is unable to bounce at all today which to me says lower prices are yet ahead despite the nice bounce off todays low.

I was pretty confused today, didn't really expect pLo to be taken out so aggressively and early in the day especially with ON vpoc right at yesterdays vpoc. So my first 2 longs just got blown out. First one maybe I should not have done but I thought it was good. Second one I had doubts whether it was smart because that would possibly make it the third trip to that level if you count the prior intraday low of 1578.25 as a touch and that gave a strong bounce. So 2 longs, 2 losses right off the bat and I debated whether or not I should take the nvpoc long because maybe this was a trend day but I took it and am glad I did as it turned out to be the low. Those last two trades...man I screwed up. Would have been nice winners but my trade location was poor and as a result both went or would have gone 7 ticks against me but ultimately become winners. I end the day/week on a negative note which sucks as there has been loads of opportunity this week. Time for some R&R.

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  #446 (permalink)
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First things first, this market is still well within the confines of a bull market as determined by the longer time frames. The bears have managed to shave off about 6% off the hi reached about a month ago and thats nothing to sneeze at but looking at a larger time frame you can see how far this market has rallied. However, the recent trading has definitely been a change of pace. And looking at the monthly chart, are we really supposed to play this from the long side all the down to 1320 because according to that line I drew on it we are still in an up trend? Obviously not.



I think the way to think about this is that we are in a short/medium term downtrend within a larger uptrend. A rejection of prices below 1590 will lead me to believe perhaps the correction is over and longs should be the primary trade for a move back up to new all time highs. However, as long as prices below 1590 are accepted then I think shorts should be first choice for a move down to the 1540 mc vpoc at a minimum and possibly 1520 balance area low.

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  #447 (permalink)
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Economic data: none

ON Profile: Large 21.25 pt range overnight on heavy volume of 320k so far but to be honest given the range I would think volume should be heavier. Pretty fugly looking profile. Vpoc currently at 1568 which is below pLo.



I found it strange that the ES dropped 70 handles in 2 days last week and the following day it closed unch. 70 handles in 2 days and can't even muster a sympathy bounce of 15 points? It made me think further downside was ahead but I certianly didn't expect to wake up monday morning to spoos down 20 but here we are. We have a possible OAOR open with a big gap down. I think the key level today will be the pLo 1570.5, if it can work its way back into pRange then a big rally could be in the cards. If not then look out below. Longer term trends are still very bullish but the short term is bearish.

Levels Above: 1578.5 LVN/pVAL/1580 ledge**, 1584 nvpoc, 1592 CLVN/BAH**, 1596 HVN, 1600

Levels Below: 1567.25 CHVN, 1565 ONLO*, 1558 CHVN, 1552 CHVN, 1548.75 CHVN**, 1540 mc vpoc***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR below value and sellers wack it below pLo but find support around 1567 and then buyers step in and rip it higher thru the day.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and bulls push higher to 1578.5 where sellers step in and slam it down to 1552 where buyers enter.

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  #448 (permalink)
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1. Long 1557.5 below 1558 CHVN on nasty selling, stepping in front of a bus here. Sellers in control so far this morning but this is a level I had and ES is down 27 so I took a chance. Scaled after 1 min and .25 MA. Second scale given.

2. Long 1557 for same reason as above plus the low was one ticked only. Going to hold this one for 4 pts as its gone 8 ticks instantly my way. Ah man I screwed this up, it went 12 ticks my way and then all the way back to new lows... Taking 2 pt winner now. Scaled after 4 min and 1.0 MA. Second scale given...would have had my 4 pt winner if I held.

3. Long 1559 HVN/-1 vwap just above dVAL thinking the low of day is in and above 1564 needs to be explored. Scratched after 3 min and 1.0 MA because I dont think context is right. It just got rejected from the dVAH and failed to hold the mid/vwap and feels weak. Would have been loser.

4. Long 1557 dVAL/IBLO after ES made new lows and had nice buying response then popped back into IB by 2 pts so I bot the pullback. Maybe I am swimming upstream here but I really think those 1564's will get taken out. Scratched after 5 min and 1.75 MA. Maybe we need new lows to really get people caught offsides before we can rally? Dang, would have been a winner.

5. Long 1560.25 vwap on 2.5 pt pb after ES pushed above vwap by a few handles then got rejected at mid and back to vwap. Still working this long these, for better or worse. Scaled after 6 min and 1.0 MA. Second scale given.

6. Sold 1579.5 pVAL/LVN ledge on 3.25 pt move up with the ES now 26 pts off lows. Maybe this thing is headed to 1584 nvpoc but decided to take a shot here. Scaled after 3 min and .75 MA. Second scale given.

7. Long 1569 ledge on 3.75 pt move down. Scaled after 4 min and .25 MA. No second scale.




Recap
ES opened OAOR just below pLo and after 27 pts of range finished lower. Vpoc and value shifted entirely lower, no overlapping at all. Price finished down some 17 pts and closed inside value right around vpoc which shifted up at the close. Heavy volume once again of around 2.4 mill. Poor low left behind albeit a nice long wick (above and below actually) on the daily candle. Sellers still firmly in control despite a nearly 100 handle sell off since last wednesday afternoon which seems unreal.

Well if you cut and paste my two hypothesis' this morning you could put together a spot on trade plan for the day! I didn't expect the weakness out of the gate, I thought a move up to 1578.5 first then weakness so I waited for long opportunities and they came. However, the final low of the day really was garbage and I didnt think that would hold, was really hoping for a final flush to 1552 then the big squeeze. I don't know if that low will be revisited tomorrow but I am pretty sure it will be revisited. Nevertheless, I'm satisfied with all my trades except for the last one which gave a scale thankfully but really would be hard pressed to justify it. I just thought it would work to be honest and thats not valid for now at least. So yeah, my best day ever trading this method! Tomorrow is another day.

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  #450 (permalink)
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1. Long 1579.5 on 2.75 pt pb off double top hi. Wanted 1578.5 level that had been important the last few days but buyers wouldnt let it go below 1579.25 so I paid up. The low is pVAH and I think this thing is searching for the 1584 nvpoc. This long is just below the dVAH which sucks so my trade location is not good. Stopped after 7 min and .5 MF.

2. Sold 1582 dVAH/IBHI on 1.25 pt move up after decent selling response from 1584 nvpoc and move back inside IB. Stop at new hi. Day is rotational so playing for move back inside. Value is higher on the day which is negative. Scaled after 3 min and .75 MA. No second scale.

3. Sold 1586 2nd vwap on 4.5 pt move up thinking this is extended. Scratched after 4 min and 1.75 MA. Nice selling response finally but my trade was not valid, I had no level here at 86 unless you count the 84 nvpoc below which i don't. Turns out would have been a winner with a scale...




Recap
ES opened OAOR today with an upside gap. Vpoc and value area entirely above yesterdays but still overlapping lower from 2 days ago. Price closed basically right where it opened but still well higher on the day, inside value and at vpoc on pretty lethargic/average volume of about 1.5 mill. Profile shape is very nicely balanced. Daily candle is almost a perfect doji which makes 2 doji's in a row. Not a convincing rally.

Man, I apparently took the strongest cold medicine/sleeping pill in the world last night as I woke up 5 minutes after the open and only because my dog jumped on the bed because he wanted breakfast. The open here in Brasil is at 10:30 am btw and I haven't slept passed 9 am in about 10 years so last night was real unusual. So I had no trade plan to post today and tried jumping in around 1130 am but it sure made things difficult without a plan of attack made and still feeling groggy (even as I write this now at the close). So I did three trades today. First was valid but horrible trade location. Had I waited until the vwap or even where I wanted to get in originally at 1578.5 I would have had a winner. Second trade was legit. Only gave 1 scale, so be it. Third trade turned into a nice winner had I held it but it was still a forced trade and I don't think I should have done it. If only I had a level at 87... So today is a wash for me in more ways than one. No more brasilian cold pills for me during the work week. Tomorrow is another day.

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  #451 (permalink)
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You're sharing awesome stuff in here! Thanks! Have a good night!

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1. Long 1557.5 below 1558 CHVN on nasty selling, stepping in front of a bus here. Sellers in control so far this morning but this is a level I had and ES is down 27 so I took a chance. Scaled after 1 min and .25 MA. Second scale given.

2. Long 1557 for same reason as above plus the low was one ticked only. Going to hold this one for 4 pts as its gone 8 ticks instantly my way. Ah man I screwed this up, it went 12 ticks my way and then all the way back to new lows... Taking 2 pt winner now. Scaled after 4 min and 1.0 MA. Second scale given...would have had my 4 pt winner if I held.

3. Long 1559 HVN/-1 vwap just above dVAL thinking the low of day is in and above 1564 needs to be explored. Scratched after 3 min and 1.0 MA because I dont think context is right. It just got rejected from the dVAH and failed to hold the mid/vwap and feels weak. Would have been loser.

4. Long 1557 dVAL/IBLO after ES made new lows and had nice buying response then popped back into IB by 2 pts so I bot the pullback. Maybe I am swimming upstream here but I really think those 1564's will get taken out. Scratched after 5 min and 1.75 MA. Maybe we need new lows to really get people caught offsides before we can rally? Dang, would have been a winner.

5. Long 1560.25 vwap on 2.5 pt pb after ES pushed above vwap by a few handles then got rejected at mid and back to vwap. Still working this long these, for better or worse. Scaled after 6 min and 1.0 MA. Second scale given.

6. Sold 1579.5 pVAL/LVN ledge on 3.25 pt move up with the ES now 26 pts off lows. Maybe this thing is headed to 1584 nvpoc but decided to take a shot here. Scaled after 3 min and .75 MA. Second scale given.

7. Long 1569 ledge on 3.75 pt move down. Scaled after 4 min and .25 MA. No second scale.




Recap
ES opened OAOR just below pLo and after 27 pts of range finished lower. Vpoc and value shifted entirely lower, no overlapping at all. Price finished down some 17 pts and closed inside value right around vpoc which shifted up at the close. Heavy volume once again of around 2.4 mill. Poor low left behind albeit a nice long wick (above and below actually) on the daily candle. Sellers still firmly in control despite a nearly 100 handle sell off since last wednesday afternoon which seems unreal.

Well if you cut and paste my two hypothesis' this morning you could put together a spot on trade plan for the day! I didn't expect the weakness out of the gate, I thought a move up to 1578.5 first then weakness so I waited for long opportunities and they came. However, the final low of the day really was garbage and I didnt think that would hold, was really hoping for a final flush to 1552 then the big squeeze. I don't know if that low will be revisited tomorrow but I am pretty sure it will be revisited. Nevertheless, I'm satisfied with all my trades except for the last one which gave a scale thankfully but really would be hard pressed to justify it. I just thought it would work to be honest and thats not valid for now at least. So yeah, my best day ever trading this method! Tomorrow is another day.

Just now saw this, way to go! You nailed it yesterday!

Cheers,
Ben

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  #453 (permalink)
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Economic data: GDP

ON Profile: Large 18.75 pt range on ok volume of 220k so far. The low is a pt below pVAL/HVN at 1574 and the hi is currently a tick below that 1592 level that served as breakdown area on 6-20 and afternoon hi on 6-21. Pretty fugly profile shape with not a lot of concensus on value. Vpoc currently at 1588.75 but that is very likely to change to any number of prices before the bell given the shape of the profile. The majority of the night was spent in the lower half of the profile until an early morning rally.



ES is set to open OAOR with an upside gap. Dalton says go with the gap but I am hesitant to do that because we are at an area where sellers are likely to respond. 1588 is the top of our balance area pre-may non farms breakout. 1592 is a the level that the market really broke down at when ES re-entered the balance area. 1596 is the nvpoc from that day. We are now ~40 pts off the lows from 2 days ago (which looked like a terrible low to me). If sellers really want to keep this party going then the low to mid 90's area is a place to do it. 1599.5/1600 above also is an area I expect sellers to respond, if they are serious. This is first time up here so even if ES closes over 1600 I still think shorts will work for at least 1 scale to get risk off. If the bulls do win the day then its quite possible the correction is over and the market can continue up to new all time highs again. Longer time frames are very bullish, short term is negative.

Levels Above: 1592 ONHI/6-20 single/6-21 aft hi*, 1596 nvpoc**, 1600 HVN/CLVN***, 1607 CHVN, 1609-1622 gap**

Levels Below: 1582 nvpoc/ledge/mc vpoc*, 1576.5 CHVN, 1570 pLo, 1566.5 nvpoc**

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR and pushes higher up to 1596 where sellers re-enter and wack it down to possibly 1566.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAOR and fails at 1592 and sells off to 1582 where buyers re-enter and grind it higher up to 1600 on the day.

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1. Sold 1594.25 mid on 4 pt move off lows. Not very excited about this trade but I took it as my overall expectations were negative for the day. IBLO was only taken out by 4 ticks and IB is only 6 pts wide which does not bode well. After typing this I decided to scratch it and wait for a better set up. Would have been a nice winner with scales.

2. Sold 1597.75 IBHI/dVAH as this thing is struggling near the hi and sellers are def absorbing. Will use a 4 tick stop only, tight leash, and look to re-short above 1600 if stopped. Scratched after 8 min and going up to hi for 3rd time.

3. Sold 1599.25 after nice looking sell response from 1599.75. Christ it was a trap. 2 pts against me super fast. Took 3 tick loser after 15 minutes and it wouldnt give me the scratch. Would also have been a winner had I held...




Recap
ES opened OAOR and sellers made an attempt to close the gap but failed and ended up closing incrementally above the open. Value and vpoc completely higher on the day. Price closed higher and inside value, around vpoc for second straight day on average volume of about 1.5 mill. Another near-perfect doji on the daily candle which makes for 3 in a row.

Another morning out the window thanks to tech problems at OEC as the DOM went down for about an hour. I actually had a 1596 offer in the market before it went down but somehow it was not filled. CME says I am flat so I have to believe them. Neither of my hypotheses played out today. Sellers existed off the open but not as strong as i suspected and they couldn't even touch pHi. Maybe it has to do with quarter end window dressing? Volatilty also dying down which means trades will have to be held for longer than 30 seconds now which sucks, I liked knowing virtually instantly whether I was right or wrong. Well tomorrow is another day...

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  #455 (permalink)
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Economic data: claims, income/spending, homes, the bernanke

ON Profile: We have an 11.5 pt range so far on light volume of only 180k. The low is only 2 ticks below the close indicating yesterdays sell off into the close was just people balancing positions and not new selling. The hi is currently 5 pts above pHi. Profile shape is a weird double distribution looking thing with a nice lower balance area but a toothy upper area bounded by a sharp ledge at 1603. Vpoc for the moment at 1598.25 in the lower balance.



ES set to open OAOR with an upside gap for the 3rd day in a row (4th if you consider just OAOR). No selling occurred after the bell as ES balanced with an upside bias for most of the night then broke higher. An open around 1604 would be 50 pts above the low and 45 below the swing hi of 1649 so over 50% of the decline has been re-traced. Yesterday closed inside the gap zone left from the may NFP and we are now inside the post may NFP balance area so it will be interesting to see if it is accepted and perhaps the decline is over. I will continue to favor the short side until we close above 1599. The Bernanke is speaking today which could make things interesting. Based on the turmoil he caused last time I am guessing his wording will be more careful today. Longer term timeframes are very bullish. Daily timeframe is undetermined?

Levels Above: 1607 CHVN**, 1609-1622 GAP, 1615 CHVN*, 1620.5 CHVN***, 1622 6/19 lo*, 1624.75 HVN

Levels Below: 1601.25 pHi, 1597 nvpoc*, 1588.5 pLo/87.75 gap, 1581.75 nvpoc/mcvpoc***, 1576.5 CHVN

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR and pushes up to 1607 CHVN/ONHI and fails and sellers knock it down to 1597 nvpoc and possibly lower.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAOR and sells off to 1597 nvpoc then grinds higher thru the day.

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The Bernanke is speaking today which could make things interesting.

You sure about that?

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  #457 (permalink)
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yeah I messed that up, the bernanke is not speaking today. rather its dudley, powell and lockhart.

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  #458 (permalink)
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1. Sold 1607.25 CHVN/OPEN after OAOR and not OD up. ES opened at 2nd vwap and am taking a chance it is a gap and crap. Stopped after 10 min and .75 MF.

2. Long 1609 vwap/gap on 3 pt pb off hi. Concerned about the sharpness off the sell off into this but otherwise ES opened OAOR and moved higher with minimal selloff. Took 4 tick loser after 5 minutes after going 7 ticks against me. Would have been a winner had I just stayed in this trade instead of puking and reversing. Classic trader panic move.

3. Reversed short at 1608. Wow, I am losing control here. Took 4 tick loser after 8 min and 0MF. Going to take dog out for a walk now as I am not thinking right...

4. Long 1610.25 vwap/mid on 3.75 pt move down from double top. Sharp decline which I dont like but overall the market is trying to move higher today. Vpoc shifted to a tick below entry and ltos of volume printing here which I dont like. Scratched after 31 min and 2.25 MA. Would have been a loser.

5. Long 1607.25 dVAL after IBLO was only 1 ticked then ES moved 2.25 handles back into VA. Got filled on some weird spike down. Scratched after 8 min and 2 MA... Looks like a nice low now. Would have been a winner had I held it.




Recap
ES opened OAOR with an upside gap for the third day in a row and closed with the third doji in a row. Vpoc and value entirely above prior. Price closed higher and right at/just below the VAL on extremely light volume of about 1.3 mill. ES also closed inside the upper balance area of this year ranging from 1599-1681. ES has now rallied 55 pts with successively lighter volume each day. Only a 9 pt range which is the smallest range in at least a month off the top of my head. Summer is here? Calm before the storm?

I nearly went off the rails today. The classic puke and reverse made an appearance today though I was lucky it didn't do much damage. Not that it could anyways as I am a 1 lot trader but the behavior is classic and usually pretty destructive. On another note, I switched from a hard stop to a manual stop about a month or so ago and I am so glad I did. Today alone I had two trades go 8 or more ticks against me which would have triggered my hard stop for a full loser but with a manual stop I used judgement and held on and was able to scratch both. That saved me 16 ticks just today. Sometimes I end up taking a 10 tick loser instead of 8 but overall I have saved much more using the manual and I am glad I switched. As for my trading, well I got clowned today and that happens. I don't think my context was good today or my levels. The market also didn't offer up much opportunity today. Tomorrow is another day...

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  #459 (permalink)
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Economic data: PMI, Michigan, 3 fed heads

ON Profile: Generally balanced profile last night with a 9pt range and light volume of 184k so far. Yesterdays entire range was traded to within a tick on both sides. Vpoc currently right in the middle at 1610.25 and value area has shifted higher a bit. Curious LVN at yesterdays vpoc.



We are now on day 4 of the bounce. I expected sellers to come out yesterday and I was wrong. The 3rd gap up in a row held just like the prior ones. I know I said I would change bias from short to long with a close above 1599 but the fact we have rallied 50 pts straight in 3 days with no real selling makes it hard for me to act on. Today we do not have a gap up which is a change. In fact as I write this ES is on the ONLO which may lead to an OAOR opening to the downside. Let's assume we open OAOR, I would expect responsive buyers to enter initially but perhaps that LVN at 1608 nvpoc will be a nice place to reject from for more downside with a range of maybe 1597-1608? Based on the declining volume and range each day I think today will be a lot like yesterday: small range and rotational. Acceptance above pHi/ONHI will target 1620.5 mc vpoc at which point I would really expect sellers to enter. Acceptance below pLo/ONLO will target 1597 nvpoc initially. It is the last day of the month and 2nd quarter and I don't know if that statistically translates in a higher percent chance of an up day or not but the media sure makes it seems that way. I do know that the last 5 minutes before cash close will have some wild action though. Longer term time frames are very bullish. Daily time frame is balanced.

Levels above: 1608 nvpoc/ON lvn*, 1614.25 pHi/onhi**, 1620.5 mc vpoc***, 1622 6/19 lo, 1624.75 hvn

Levels below: 1601.25 pHi, 1597 nvpoc*, 1588.5 pLo/87.75 gap, 1581.75 nvpoc/mcvpoc***, 1576.5 CHVN

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR and responsive buyers push to 1608 where sellers appear and drive ES lower to 1597, possibly lower.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAOR and sellers push to 1601/1597 where buyers enter and grind higher thru the day.

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1.Long 1597.5 after 1597 nvpoc printed weakly. ES opened OAOR and below -1 vwap so def out of balance which makes this fade not so great but it was a level i had pre-market so I took the trade. Scratched after 5 min and 2.0 MA vs 0 MF. Would have been a loser.

2. Sold 1598.75 2 ticks below mid/vwap with lots of absorption going on there and trying to figure out if there is any more downside left in this move. The low does look nice. Vpoc just shifted to entry-not good. Very distinct ledge 2 ticks above. Stopped after 11 min and .75 MF...

3. Sold 1608 nvpoc/1st vwap on 3.25 pt move that is getting pretty feverish. Scratched after 2 min and 1.25 MA and will try to re-enter higher.

4. Sold 1608.75 for above reason. Profile looking toothy, almost like this is morphing into a trend up day now. Scaled after 14 min and 1.0 MA. Second scale given. Max theo winner 8 pts.

5. Long 1597.25 on month/quarter end spike down. Scratched after 11 ticks against me. Would have been a winner. Seems like these month end spikes are always about 4 handles down whereas I was only 2 handles off the market. Next time!




Recap
ES opened OAOR for the 5th time this week, this time to the downside. Value shifted completely lower on the day but just barely while vpoc shifted down 9 pts thanks to the end of day rebalancing craziness. The MP TPO moved only a few pts lower though. Price closed down about 10 on heavy volume of about 1.8 mill. Based on VP it closed inside value around vpoc but on MP it closed below value which may be significant. We have another daily candle that looks like a doji but with a bigger body than every other day this week.

I thought I had a pretty good game plan going into today with a possible range of 1597-1608 but since they took it just a wee bit further than I expected on the low side it threw a wrench in my plan and caused me to think that possibly further downside was in the cards, hence the short at 1598.75 when I really should have been long. I need to be more flexible. That last long was just a scalp play based on my experience of past EOM/Q days and I guess I need to revise my spike expectations from 2 handles to 4 handles as I was not far enough beneath the market. Good learning experience though, next time I will be ready. I end the weak with a scratch but overall profitable (if only slightly). Next week is a short weak and then the weak after that is the move to 2 lots.
ES opened

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  #461 (permalink)
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Economic data: ISM, construction

ON Profile: Larger range than expected last night at almost 17 pts and having explored the entirety of pRange and then some on both sides, if only by a tick to the upside. Volume is light given the range at only 194k. P-shaped profile. Vpoc at 1608, same as thursday.



Friday was an interesting day with two main features I would say: a poor hi and a sharp decline into the close. ES re-tested pLo overnight and bounced strongly almost 17 handles straight up to 1 tick pHi and then balance in the upper portion of fridays profile. Today is the first of the month which could mean new inflows (or not). ES is set to open OAIR inside value with two major numbers coming out at 9 so I think the first 30 minutes are chop. The data could dictate the day and my overall bias is to the upside. Acceptance above pHi leads to 1614/15 and then 1620.5/1622 where I really expect sellers to be lurking. Acceptance below 1599 nvpoc targets pLo 1594.25 then 1588 and finally 1582 nvpoc where i really expect buyers to enter. Its a holiday shortened weak with the big non-farms number on friday so i think today is a quiet rotational balance day around 1608 (last weeks mc vpoc) with maybe 1602-1615 the range.

Levels Above: 1609.75 pHi*, 1614.25/1615.5 CHVN*, 1620.5 mc vpoc***/1622 6-19 low, 1624.75 HVN

Levels Below: 1599 nvpoc, 1594.25 pLo*, 1588 gap, 1582 nvpoc***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR inside value and chops for 30 min then breaks lower to 1602/1599 to pick up buyers and grinds higher up to 1615.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and pushes higher but fails above pHi then sellers step in and knock it down to 1599 where it turns back up or fails and continues lower.

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1. Long 1613.75 mid/eth vwap on 4.75 pt move down. Very prominent vpoc above at 1618 and higher value on the day made me take this long. Negatives are that IBHI was only 2 ticked and rejected from a known important level. Scratched it after it went 5 ticks against me, try to re-enter lower.

2. Re-entered same price... this is also dVAL so a little more confluence to the trade. Stopped after 9 min and .75 MF.




Recap
ES opened OAIR and buyers aggressively bid it higher from the start. Value and vpoc shifted entirely higher. Price however closed near the low, below value and inside pRange on light volume of about 1.3 mill. Profile shape is a triple distribution-y. Daily candle is a hammer with a very long wick above and little stub below. What did the ES accomplish today? Buyers ramped it up to the 1620.5 mc vpoc to the tick where sellers entered and took it all the way down. It will be interesting to see if todays hi holds for a few days as sellers attempt a trip back down to 1553 or not.

Super frustrating day for me. I just could not get filled on any trade I wanted and the one I did get filled turned into a loser. I don't know if it was because today was such light volume or I set unrealistic expectations but I am pissed I didnt get at least two of the fills which would have been great trades. The one trade I did do I felt had some edge but it was questionable as the early morning built an HVN at 1611.75 and then 1612.5 to 1616.25 was basically a big LVN so I didnt have a whole lot of support to lean on. Tomorrow is another day.

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Economic data: factory

ON Profile: Smaller range than normal of late at only 8.75 pts on very light volume of only 161k so far. Profile shape pretty balanced. ES is making new lows as I write this. ON hi is the same as two days ago at 1614.25. The low is currently at 1604.75 which I cant really attribute to anything. Vpoc at 1610.75.



ES opened globex and instantly rejected pLo in search of higher prices which made me think yesterdays afternoon sell off was not real selling. However, ES is now back at pLo so those prices are being accepted and I am inclined to believe a little more that yesterdays rejection from 1620.5 might be a significant reversal. If thats true then I would look for the ES to be rejected from 1612/1615.75 today and search for lower prices. If no rejection then 1618 nvpoc is the obvious initial target. ES is expected to open OAIR below value right around the 1608 mc vpoc from the last 6 days of trading. Im going to say sellers have the initial edge this morning but only marginally so. Longer term time frames are super bullish, daily time frame is mixed.

Levels Above: 1612 pVAL/1615.75 LVN*, 1618 nvpoc, 1620.5 pHi/CHVN**, 1622.25 gap close, 1624.75 HVN

Levels Below: 1602.25 HVN, 1599 nvpoc/1598 nclose**, 1588.25 hi/lo, 1582.25 nvpoc***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR below value and bulls make first push higher but fail around 1612/1615 and sellers push down to 1599.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR below value and push below pLo to 1602/1599 where buyers enter and grind up to 1615.5.

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1. Sold 1615.75 LVN on 1.5 pt move up after stalling here first time then pushing thru by only 2 ticks. Very strong open by ES after 1 ticking pLo then driving higher quickly up to here but took the fade because was part of my plan and it is above 2nd vwap. Scaled after 6 min and .75 MA. No second scale.

2. Long 1615.5 LVN after it went through by 2 pts and then pulled back. Very aggressive trade location and not sure if this is smart. Already 4 ticks against me. Vpoc is 1 tick below entry. Scratched after 4 min and 1.5 MA, will try to re-enter at vwap 1613.5 instead. Would have been a winner....

3. Sold 1617.25 after it 1 ticked the IBHI/nvpoc and pulled back. Maybe what happens yesterday happens again. I would say overall context still supports the long side but what just happened now was not good. Hmm, went 6 ticks my way instantly then back to the hi and now back to entry. Scratched after 16 min. because of the double top. Will try to re-enter higher. Christ, instantly became a winner after I scratched...

4. Long 1615 vwap on 3.5 pt move down from the hi. Not liking how it went right through vpoc on way down. dVAL below at 1614 for possible additional support. Scratched after 20 min and 1.75 MA. Would have been loser.

5. Long 1603.5 after 1603 printed and I was looking for a long off of 1602 and I didn't think it would get there. Wait for it...scratch after 12 min and 2.75 MA.




Recap
ES opened OAIR/OTD and drove higher in a manner similar to yesterday and also shit the bed in the afternoon like yesterday. Vpoc once again left hanging near the high. Value shifted slightly overlapping lower. Price closed in the lower range of the profile kind of straddling the VAL, minimal change on day from yesterday. Volume was average at about 1.4 mill. Daily candle once again another doji with a long wick on top. Two days in a row with a nice sell off from the 1620 area, I'm guessing next time up there it won't be rejected but perhaps first market will go lower to flush out some weak longs and get people short.

Another day where I traded like a clown. 5 trades, 4 scratches, just totally timid trading. I think trade #3 was a good trade based on what I knew at the time and turns out I could have held it all day long with only 5 ticks against me. I scratched it and I think for good reason but then I should have put it back on when new hi was made by only a few ticks and then came back inside the IB. Trade 4 was pretty bad given the context I just described and I should not have taken it. Trade 5 was stupid, I got too aggressive when there was no reason to be aggressive. Super humbling day, these last two days have really made me feel like I suck at trading this way. Risk management has me down zero dollars for these experiences. I hope I can apply these lessons in a proper way and make money going forward.

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  #465 (permalink)
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Economic data: claims, ISM

ON Profile: Kind of a "b" shaped profile so far with a 14.25 pt range and moderate volume of 220k. The hi is just a pt above the close and at the 1608 mc vpoc of the last week or so. The low is 1 tick below last fridays low. Vpoc is currently at 1598.25 so just below friday's 1599 vpoc. Price currently trading 1602.5 so a nice bounce off the low and back into pRange.



I woke up this morning to ES down 10, now it is trading 1605. For the last week ES has balanced between 1594 and 1620 with 1608 being the most traded price. ES ran up to 1620 twice in the last 2 days and was rejected both time. Overnight it went lower to 1594 and picked up buyers again. I think 1608 might be the key today, a push up to it and rejection could lead to another trip down to 1594. Acceptance at 1608 might lead to a push back up to 1620 again. ES is set to open OAIR below value. Sellers still have the edge right now but not as much as they did two hours ago. If they can't build acceptance below pLo then I look for a move back up to 1608 and potentially higher. If they do take it below 1600 then the target becomes 1594 and as its been tagged twice now in the last few days I don't think it will hold but given its a half day only sellers may not have time/desire to press. Longer time frames are very bullish. Daily time frame is balancing.

Levels above: 1608 mc vpoc/onhi**, 1616.25 nvpoc, 1620.5 CHVN*, 1622 gap close, 1624.75 HVN

Levels below: 1599 nvpoc/1598 nclose/on vpoc*, 1594 onlo*, 1588 hi/lo**, 1582 nvpoc***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR below value and pushes to 1598 then grinds higher to 1608 into close.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR below value and pushes up to 1608 and is rejected then heads down to 1594.

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1. Long 1600.25 pLo on 3.25 pt pb after being accepted inside pRange. Scratched after 5 min and 2 pts MA. Given the context I really expected better support but it basically just blew right through.

2. Long 1602 2 ticks above vwap on 2.5 pt pb from hi after vwap printed only weakly. Still playing for more upside and unfortunately with worse trade location than before but I think ES is headed for 1608 mc vpoc yet. Scaled after 3 min and .25 MA. Second scale given.

3. Sold 1608.75 mc vpoc on 3.5 pt move up looking for a potential move back down to vpoc 1603. LVN at 1609.75 above as potential resistance as well. Stopped after 5 min, just blew right through me...

4. Re-shorted 1611.25 after its been hanging around up here but only 1 ticked the hi on last push up. Scratched after 2 min because it wasnt the type of reaction I wanted to see.

5. Re-entered 1612.5, this rotation just keeps going (almost 8 pts now) and I keep trying to fade it. Scaled after 16 min and .5 MA. Second scale given.




Recap
ES opened OAIR/OR and after dipping below pLo briefly began to build acceptance inside pRange and grind higher. Pretty fugly profile gives us lower value and vpoc for the half day. Price closed incrementally higher and inside value on light holiday volume of about 800k. Daily candle finally gives us something other than a doji for once however ES just cant seem to stray too far from the 1608 mc vpoc. ES continuing to ignore foreign issues making me think it wants to go higher.

First trade I made today was good but it went 2pts against me so I got out. I dont know why I didnt get long 1598 off the open...that was a mistake and i sat there looking at it and didn't pull the trigger. Last few trades were pretty stupid as I was just shorting given the magnitude of the rotation and the fact the profile looked so fugly below it. I'm lucky the last one worked and got out the prior one for a scratch. Sounds stupid but it seems I often think about putting on a trade in the wrong way. I have been thinking in terms of "can i get at least a scale off" before pulling the trigger but thats really not conducive to what I am trying to do. I should be thinking "where do I think this thing can go if I put on a trade here" and is that target like 6-8-10 pts away and if so then I should put the trade on.

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Economic data: non-farms

ON Profile: NFP is out and we have a somewhat balanced profile with a longer tail above. Total range going back to yesterday is 22.25 pts. Heavy volume of 414 k so far. Vpoc at 1623.75.



ES is set to open with a large gap higher. This gap is more interesting than other gaps though because it is occurring above a 5 day balance area on heavy volume which lends more credibility to the sustainability of this gap. I think long is the play today as long as sellers don't instantly come in and crush the bid. 1620.5/1618 is my key area today and I expect rejection from that level if tested. However, if is accepted inside the prior balance area then we have a potential look above and failure which should lead to rotation all the way to the other side of balance at 1594. Things to keep in mind is that currently ES is +18 pts which is a large gap and you have to wonder how much upside potential for the day remains especially considering many people are still on holiday. Longer term trends remain incredibly bullish. Daily time frame might just be turning bullish again too.

Levels Above: 1629 CLVN, 1631.5 CHVN**, 1637.5 CHVN**, 1644 nvpoc*, 1650 CHVN***

Levels Below: 1620.5 CHVN/1618 BAH***, 1616.25 nvpoc*, 1608.75 nvpoc/mc vpoc/1607 CHVN**, 1604.75 MP single*, 1594 BAL

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR and responsive sellers come in and sell it down to 1620.5 but fail and bulls grind it higher slowly thru the day.

Hypo#2- ES opens OD and rips higher/lower, get on board!

Hypo#3- ES opens OAOR and pushes higher but fails near 1631.5 CHVN and rotates down to 1620.5 and closes in the middle for a balanced day. If not rejected from 1620.5 then look out below!

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1. Sold 1618.5 vwap after OAOR that pushed above BAH and failed then put in a double bottom at 1616.25 nvpoc so I am assuming that based on auction logic we should go all the way down to BAL 1594. Well that didnt work, stopped after 2 min. Dang, stopped 3 ticks off the hi of the move and ES later broke down.

2. Long 1608.5 nvpoc on massive 9 pt move down and kind of stepping in front of a bus here and viewing this as more of a scalp since context to me seems to support a move down to 1594. Scaled after 5 min and .25 MA. Filled within first 240 in queue. Second scale given.

3. Sold 1615.25 vwap on 4.25 pt move up. ONLO just above at 1516. Nice bounce off the low but it does look poor and I think overall context favors downside yet but if this does not hold then that changes my view. Vpoc down below at 1612.75. Scaled after 5 min and .25 MA. Second scale given.

4. Sold 1618.5 (again) dVAH/ eth vwap on 6 pt move up. Scratched after 11 min and 1.5 MA. Thing really ripped in my face and I can re-enter higher but not sure if I want to.

5. Sold 1622 IBHI taking chance that 1623 is HOD with move back to vpoc at 1619 given the 14 pt wide IB. Will only risk 5 ticks. Oops, I screwed tha tup, 1623.5 is HOD so will have to risk that instead. Stopped after 14 min and .5 MF. Think I may have panicked on this stop, we will see. Well I puked it 2 ticks off the HOD...dang.




Recap
ES opened OAOR right at the 5 day BAH and closed on the hi's after responsive sellers wacked it first then left the building. Value and vpoc shifted it completely higher. Price closed on the hi, above value and above the prior 5 day balance area. Volume was pretty pathetic though at only about 1.2 mill. Daily candle gives a nice long buying tail with decent green body. It would seem that the bears have been defeated and new all time hi's are the next target. I really didn't think that 1553 low would hold but so far it has and doesnt seem in any immediate danger.

Today could have been a great day for me. That first trade I got stopped out but the idea was right. The next trade was solid and I must say I am surprised the low held, the way it was formed just didnt seem right. Third trade was decent but the fourth trade was a force especially considering my write up of the previous trade. I knew a break above the mid/vwap changed the context yet I still took a short. I am lucky to have gotten out for a scratch. Last trade I think was ok and right idea just poor execution. It would have been great to have a nice winning day going into next week as I start trading two lots but c'est la vie. I must admit to being scared about it but it has to be done to really put my strategy to work and actually start to make money.

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  #469 (permalink)
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ON Profile: ES traded in a 12 pt range on light volume of 208k so far. The hi is 2 ticks above the 1637.5 CHVN and looks poor. The low is 1626 which I can't really attribute to anything and looks very nice. Vpoc currently at 1635.75. Profile shape is pretty ambiguous, sort of like a "p", sort of like a box.



ES balanced for 5 days between 1594 and 1620.5 and established 1608 as the fairest price. It broke higher friday morning but sellers managed to take it back down to the 1608 mc vpoc but no lower and then had it rip back up and out of the range and close on highs. Seems like a back breaker to me. Friday's squeeze higher has been accepted and improved upon with ES set to open ~+7. I can see sellers being enticed by this gap higher and want to revisit the thinly traded auction between 1624-1629 but overall I feel bulls have total control and would prefer long trades. The only caveat to friday's auction is that it happened on very light holiday volume but I wouldn't hang my hat on that if I were a seller. Longer time frames are very bullish and the daily time frame IMO has just transitioned to bullish too.

Levels Above: 1637.5 CHVN/ONHI**, 1643.75 nvpoc**, 1646.75 CLVN, 1650 CHVN***, 1655 CLVN/1655.5 MP single

Levels Below: 1631.5 CHVN, 1628.5 pHi/CLVN*, 1624.5 LVN/pVAH, 1619 nvpoc/pBAH***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR and bulls push but fail at ONHI where sellers step in and wack it down to 1628.5 pHi/1624 to pick up buyers and close in the middle.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAOR and sellers step in and push weakly but are overpowered by buyers who grind it higher thru the day.

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No trades today



Recap
ES opened OAOR and traded in a tight 8 pt range all day. Value and vpoc shifted significantly higher. Price closed higher, inside value and near the middle of the range and right around where it opened for yet another doji candle. Volume was very light at around a mill. Profile shape is very nicely balanced. Friday's squeeze higher into the close held and was not even touched today so clearly a win for the bulls.

I didn't do any trades today and I can only partially blame it on being afraid to pull the trigger on a 2 lot. Mostly I just didn't see any real opportunity. I thought about a short at 1638 ONHI after it made the 1639.5 hi and came back to vpoc and built a nice ledge there but I didn't because I really wanted to trade from the long side today. It ended up being a typical summer day, here's hoping for some opportunity tomorrow.

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Profiler,

Earlier today you identified a poor high at 1638.00 (Globex High). I'd like to ask why did you qualify it as a poor high? And what was the implication of this judgment call? I am not new to MP concepts but i must admit i am not able to differentiate a poor high from any other swing high. Maybe you'll be able to clarify this elusive concept. Thanks

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Profiler,

Earlier today you identified a poor high at 1638.00 (Globex High). I'd like to ask why did you qualify it as a poor high? And what was the implication of this judgment call? I am not new to MP concepts but i must admit i am not able to differentiate a poor high from any other swing high. Maybe you'll be able to clarify this elusive concept. Thanks

Well for starters, just because the hi/lo is poor doesnt mean it will get taken out and that you should take a trade to target it, obviously. However, last nights globex hi was poor for a few reasons. First, it traded there twice to the tick before selling off. You can see this as a double top on the chart I posted as well as a TPO chart. Second, there was a lot of volume at the top tick, something like 1400 contracts which for the globex session is a lot. Imagine if you saw the top tick during the RTH session have like 7000 contracts traded- you would be pretty sure that it wont hold because if there was enough interest there for 7k to trade, how can it not go at least 1 more tick, you know? Finally, it just didnt look right, like a proper auction had been done. Compare it to the globex lo in that same chart, how the volume profile tapers nicely which shows that as price went lower it gradually attracted fewer and fewer sellers. The hi looks like a rectangle from 1638 to 1637 and then a huge ledge juts out- definitely not a gradual taper. In MP language it "needed repair".

The implication of this judgement call is that its just another potential clue. Given all the context going into the open it was just one more thing that made me think ES would trade higher than 1638 at some point today. I hope this helps- let me know if anything I said doesnt jive.

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Economic data: none

ON Profile: ES traded in a 9.25 pt range on light volume of 153k so far. The low is yesterdays settlement to the tick so people had absolutely zero interest in selling it after the bell. The hi of 1645 is 1.25 pts above the 1643.75 nvpoc. Vpoc at 1641.5 so overall the ES is holding above pHi. Profile shape is kind of a double distribution with a very small lower balance area.



ES broke higher in the overnight session and we are faced with yet another OAOR start to the day. Yesterday I was bullish, today I remain bullish but we are at an area or close to it where its not unreasonable to expect sellers to enter. Both 1643.75 nvpoc and (more so) 1650 CHVN represent logical entry points for sellers with the logical first target being yesterdays nicely balanced profile vpoc at 1634.75 and then further below the 1628.5 gap close. 1650 being more important as it was the breakdown area from june that resulted in almost a 100 pts loss. So unless ES opens OD or OTD strongly higher I will be preferring shorts. Given the multitude of doji's we have had on a daily basis I would be remiss to acknowledge the possibility of yet another one. Longer term time frames are super bullish and the daily time frame is bullish as well.

Levels Above: 1643.75 nvpoc/1645 ONHI*, 1650 CHVN**, 1655 CLVN/ MP single, 1658.25 CHVN

Levels Below: 1639.5 pHi, 1634.75 nvpoc, 1631.25-1628.5 gap, 1620.5 CHVN*, 1618.5 nvpoc***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR and pushes up to 1645/1650 where sellers enter and knock it down to 1635 and buyers step in.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAOR and sellers make first push to 1639.5/1634.75 and then buyers grind it higher thru the day.

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1. Sold 1643.75 vwap on 1.5 pt move off bottom. Bad trade location but ES opened OAOR and popped right off the open but since then sellers have slowly ground it lower. I wanted to enter at a location that would put my stop above HOD but it never pulled back enough to let me in. Win or lose this is a good experience for me. First scale! Second scale after 17 min and .75 MA!!!




Recap
ES opened OAOR and put in a balanced rotational day. Value and vpoc shifted completely higher. Yesterdays range was rejected. Price finished higher and inside value on absolutely pathetic volume of about a mill. P shaped profile with a poor hi-I would anticipate that being taken out overnight. Another doji on the daily candle. Market keeps floating higher, no aggressive sellers found yet.

So I made my first 2 lot trade today and it was a winner. There were 2 other potential trades that I didn't take. The first was a long off pHi 1639.5 when the IBLO was 1-ticked and then it bounced 3 handles back inside then pulled back. I didn't take it because I thought context still favored downside slightly and I was looking to go long around 1634.75 nvpoc. The second trade was around 1648.5 short but I really wanted to wait for 1650s to print as the ES was just grinding higher and holding above IBHI and just rotated for awhile after printing the 1648.25 hi. So I backed off and it would have provided 1 scale at least. Oh well. I'm happy to start off 2 lots on the right foot. Tomorrow is another day.

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Nice your short and congratulation for your first winning trade with two lots. As i have not read the totality of your journal i was wondering before taking a trade are you looking for some price pattern to form or do you just trade your levels?

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trendisyourfriend View Post
Nice your short and congratulation for your first winning trade with two lots. As i have not read the totality of your journal i was wondering before taking a trade are you looking for some price pattern to form or do you just trade your levels?

Im not looking for price patterns at all. I am trying to figure out the proper market context first and foremost and then i am looking for some sort of confluence of levels to give me a good trade location with a stop that will only be hit if the trade is wrong and not because of some normal market wiggle. Not saying I am good at it and I sure do still do my share of clown trades but that is my goal.

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  #477 (permalink)
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So if i understand correctly, the context gives you a directional bias? I suppose you are using some sort of heuristic rules to define if you go long or short. Could you elaborate a bit more on this aspect when you have time. Thanks.

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  #478 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
So if i understand correctly, the context gives you a directional bias? I suppose you are using some sort of heuristic rules to define if you go long or short. Could you elaborate a bit more on this aspect when you have time. Thanks.

lets take todays trade example. ES opened out of range, about 10 pts higher than yesterdays close and 6 pts higher than yesterdays hi. So just given that you assume the bulls are in charge and have a bullish bias. However, this opening was right around the area where sellers stepped in aggressively en route to the 100 pt decline we just had so they might want to-enter this area again. at this point I am not exactly sure who has the edge. then the ES opens and only 1 ticks the ONHI and sellers dont start blasting it but there is definitely pressure and the ES feels heavy. So right there is when I finally decided to play the short side. the only question was where to enter. I usually like to wait for a pullback to a level and finally it pulled back to the vwap/mid area and i put the trade on.

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  #479 (permalink)
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Economic data: FOMC

ON Profile: Small 7 pt range on light volume of 154k so far. Generally balanced profile but with a bulkier lower area. ES traded within yesterdays range the entire session finding support at yesterdays LVN at 1641.75 and resistance at pVAH 1648. Vpoc right in the middle at 1644.25.



ES had a quiet night and did not explore any new territory. We are looking at an OAIR inside value as of right now, possibly below value. Today's big news will be the FOMC minutes release and its entirely possible ES does nothing until the 1pm release. ES remains in a tricky position still- overall my bias is bullish yet we are at an area that sellers might re-enter aggressively. Yesterday traded up to 1649 with no sign of aggressive sellers so I am decreasing the possibility that sellers will enter a little bit. I will still look very hard at a 1650 short and almost assuredly a 1655 short unless I am staring a trend day in the eye. To the downside, my ideal entry would be the 1634.75 nvpoc for a move back up to 1650/1655. All time frames are bullish.

Levels Above: 1650 CHVN**, 1655.5 CLVN/MP single***, 1658.25 CHVN, 1661.5 CHVN

Levels Below: 1641.75 LVN, 1634.75 nvpoc**, 1631.5-1628.5 gap, 1620.5 CHVN, 1618.5 nvpoc***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR inside value and chops around until fomc then spikes to 1655 before selling off down to 1635.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR inside value and sells off ahead of fomc to 1635 then rallies after fomc to 1655.

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1. Sold 1648.75 pHi/IBHI after ES popped up to 1653 and was quickly sold back inside the IB. This is the second pop back up here though which I dont like. Stopped after 2 min and .5 MF. Dang.

2. Long 1648.25 IBHI on 4 pt pb. Maybe I am getting spun around here but it seems like it tried to break out of 2 day balance and got denied then popped back above again so I am thinking this time will hold. Stopped after 11 min and 1.0 MF.




Recap
ES opened OAIR inside value and chopped around until FOMC then broke higher above the 2 day balance area hi, got rejected and headed down to the lows and got rejected from there before hanging out in the IB into the close. Value area and vpoc are basically unchanged. Price closed incrementally higher and above value which is interesting. Volume once again below average at about 1.15 mill. Another doji on the daily candle. The two day balance area gives us a very nice balanced profile on the TPO chart with poc of 1645. The vp chart is not as nicely balanced with two fangs at 1646.5 and 1644.5 but overall the two charts mesh well. One would think that after a failed breakout above 1648.5 today that the bottom might fall out but it didnt and in fact ES closed right near the base of the spike. It seems up is still the way.

So this is my biggest losing day with this style of trading so far but thats to be expected after doubling size. I went 0/2 and thats not a big deal. I don't think I made the market work very hard to take my money today which is what bothers me. First trade I think was too aggressive as ES only came 1.5 pts back inside the IB and was quickly rejected but then came back inside again only 1 pt before popping back up where I sold it. So I didn't really have a good set up. Second trade...well that was the second (or third) trip back down to the IBHI so right there that tells you something. The good news is I was pretty comfortable with 2 lots and I wasn't timid about putting the trades on.

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  #481 (permalink)
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Economic data: claims

ON Profile: Very distinct p-shaped profile. Large 19.25 pt range on pretty average volume of 260k. No selling interest after the close at all. For the moment, the hi is 1667.5 which we have as a double top from 5-20 and 5-28. This hi itself is a double top and looks pretty poor. Vpoc currently at 1664.75.



ES is set to open with a large 15 pt gap higher and only 15 pts below all time hi's. After selling off 100 pts in 4 days the market has in two weeks time recovered all those losses and then some. It rallied 50 pts, balanced for 5 days, broke higher and rallied another 40 pts, balanced for 2 days and now we are breaking higher again. Clearly bulls in total control. Is there any reason to be a seller up here? I can three selling set ups today. First would be if ES opens OD down. Second would be if ES opens and pushes higher and fails/1 or 2 ticks the ONHI. Third would be a short off the nvpoc at 1671.25 and maybe you can get a nice little pullback. Otherwise the focus should be squarely on the long side. But where? I think the best place to get long would be around 1649.5 BAH but thats 15 pts lower. 1658 CHVN might be attractive especially considering it did give a little bit of rotation relief on the way up. 1655 CLVN is an option too but we blew right through it on the way up, no reason we can't blow right through it on way down. I'm guessing most likely this will just make you take a long where you don't want to and deal with it. All time frames are now very bullish.

Levels Above: 1667.5 ONHI**, 1671.25 nvpoc*, 1675.25 CHVN, 1679.75 all time hi

Levels below: 1658 CHVN, 1655 CLVN, 1649.5 breakout level***, 1644.75 nvpoc, 1641.5 BAL

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR and responsive sellers lay into it but lose interest around 1658 and bulls grind it higher up to 1671/75.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAOR and bulls push but fail at ONHI/ 1671 nvpoc then sellers step in and push down to 1658.

Hypo#3- ES opens OD (up or down). Get on board!

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  #482 (permalink)
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No trades today



Recap
ES opened OAOR and spent the majority of the day in a 6 pt range before breaking higher into the close. Value and vpoc shifted completely higher. Price closed just off the hi and above value on light volume of about 1.1 mill. The large gap up held almost in its entirety. Profile shape is kind of a double distribution. No sign of sellers yet and with the all time hi only 9 pts higher it *seems* a given that we take it out tomorrow or next week.

I did not trades today and it sucks. I had my finger on the trigger ready to lay off a short on the open if it stalled at the ONHI or only 1 or 2 ticked it and instead it stopped 2 ticks short and left me watch it go down. I need to be more fluid and its always a problem for me when the market stops just short of a level. I knew the long would be hard today and it did not disappoint. I was hoping for another trip down to IBLO to get long but it stalled at 1663 and again left me watching. Finally, I debated a short at 1671.25 but by the time it finally got there it was 15 min before the cash close so I let it be. So I am real frustrated as there have been 2 days this week with no trades. There have been tradable moves this week and I have missed them. I need to get on them... Tomorrow is another day.

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  #483 (permalink)
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Profiler View Post
No trades today
...So I am real frustrated as there have been 2 days this week with no trades. There have been tradable moves this week and I have missed them. I need to get on them... Tomorrow is another day.

There is a lesson here in what you wrote. At the level you are presently, some days need to be skipped and i am sure you knew it before the day even had started. When this cccurs, trust your instinct and close the computer and take a day off. I would suggest you take a note of the number of times it occurs in a year.

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  #484 (permalink)
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Economic data: PPI, michigan

ON Profile: Tight 6.5 pt range on very light volume of 144k so far. The low is just below that distinct LVN from yesterday and the hi is a pt above pHi. Vpoc at 1668.5 and overall profile shape is kind of a double distribution, kind of balanced.



ES spent the night balancing in yesterday's upper distribution which is interesting considering that yesterdays vpoc was very prominent so I thought that a re-visit would make sense but the fact it did not seems to be another clue as to the strength of this market. Volume has been very light this week and range has been small and today is a friday in the middle of summer and ES is set to open OAIR (at least its above value!). What can we realistically expect for today? This seems like a perfect set up for a slow death grind up to all time hi's with maybe a chance of a stall out and profit taking kicking in at the close. All time frames are extremely bullish. All time hi at 1679.75 is staring everyone in the eye.

Levels Above: 1671.75/72.75 pHi/ONHI*, 1675 CHVN*, 1679.75 all time hi***

Levels Below: 1664.5 nvpoc*, 1658.25 CHVN**, 1655 CLVN, 1650 CHVN/BAH***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR above value and sells off to 1664.5 and then starts death grind higher up to 1675/1679.75.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and pushes up to 1672 and fails then auctions down to 1664.5 and possibly lower before buyers step in.

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  #485 (permalink)
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1. Long 1669 vwap after ES made low of 1667.5 coincident with LVN from yesterday then bounced and pulled back again to low but stopped 1 tick short so I went long. Aggressive location and not feeling very confident about it but this happened yesterday and it was the right play so maybe this is the right play today. Stop is below current LOD. Initially put 1668.5 bid in and would have been filled but got scared. First scale after 18 mins and 1.25 MA. 49 minutes in it has gone and stopped 1 tick short of my second scale which is just above the ONHI and now pulled back inside the IB by a few ticks...not sure what to do with this. Hold target at original exit, stop at breakeven? Keep stop below the lo? Now 1:17 into the trade and it is still churning inside the IB and I have decided to just keep the stop where it is despite the ominous context. Mostly this is just to enforce the plan of letting a trade play out. Stopped on last one after 2:37 after touching my exit 5 times I bailed despite it printing so weakly.




Recap
ES opened OAIR above value and established higher value and vpoc on the day, albeit incrementally. Price closed unch on very light volume of only 930k. The daily candle is another doji. Sellers are just awol and I fully expect the all time hi to get taken out next week. Maybe above that level or around 1700 will be enough to entice some real selling. Today's low is atrocious, I cant believe it held.

I am totally content with my trade today. I put on a good trade that would have been excellent had I stayed with my original entry. It was not an easy trade to put on either as I really wanted a visit to the 1664.5 nvpoc first. I got really unlucky with puking the exact low and turning a +300 day into a scratch but so be it, that will happen again. All in all my first week of trading 2 lots went ok. I pussed out on some trades, I took some bad ones and I made a couple good ones. Next week will be better!

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  #486 (permalink)
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I was short 69.25 at about 10:30 CT. I truly believed the market was going to fall out of bed there at 1667...fact is I had moved stop to 68.75 and just kept holding through everything. I certainly would not blame you for bailing on longs at that level...I think market would have gone a lot lower, if it could have got through there.

May(be) you and I both should look at time stops <smile>. In my case, after holding for an hour, it probably should have been clear it wasn't going lower.

Good trading
Ddawg

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Ddawg View Post
May(be) you and I both should look at time stops <smile>. In my case, after holding for an hour, it probably should have been clear it wasn't going lower.

Good trading
Ddawg

Yeah I don't know if time stops make any sense. I dont know why you put your trade on but i can see a good reason for being short yesterday after the rejection from the ONHI and I think I had pretty good reasons to still hang on to my long and we both endured some serious chop but why should that be a reason to take the trade off? I think a good trade has a defined level that if hit you know you are wrong. Ideally you put on a trade and it runs away instantly but sometimes you get situations like yesterday. I still cant believe that low held btw...

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Yeah I don't know if time stops make any sense. I dont know why you put your trade on but i can see a good reason for being short yesterday after the rejection from the ONHI and I think I had pretty good reasons to still hang on to my long and we both endured some serious chop but why should that be a reason to take the trade off? I think a good trade has a defined level that if hit you know you are wrong. Ideally you put on a trade and it runs away instantly but sometimes you get situations like yesterday. I still cant believe that low held btw...

You know, this is something that drives me crazy...I mean you hang on for dear life one time...and make 25 cents, next time you take a couple handles profit, and it goes 20 handles further! I don't know about time stops either. Perhaps something to study further.

My reasoning for short was a break of the downward wedge/support line at 69.50(5 min. chart) along with a couple other confirmations.

You would have been right in the long run, unfortunately you gotta have a stop somewhere.

Good Trading
Ddawg

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Today's low is atrocious, I cant believe it held.

Ditto -- I bought 67.50 around 12:15 ET. If you look at how BA was pulling down the dow at that time, yet how the S&P just would NOT break down, then it's clear ES wanted to try for a new high. Then there was the France downgrade and I puked at the same price, expecting at least a new low by 1 tick. But in the next couple of minutes it became again clear that ES was just too well bid to not get back in so I did, again at the same price.

In short, look at how heavy the dow was because of BA, and how a downgrade of France could not break it, and that can give a VERY strong conviction to get in and let it see what it can do. Sometimes it's what doesn't happen that gives the best indication of market sentiment.

While you are seeing a "poor low" form (and it technically was a poor low), in fact it was simply so well bid that it was a very strong buy. I don't know if you watch the DOM or not, but they just kept on reloading in the 67s. 67 was, as you show, an excellent place to buy structurally, and by that point the VPOC for two days had already shifted higher to 70, so market was accepting higher. When you see that, no reason to not give it a try, if it happens to be in accordance with your overall view and plan.

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Yes I think the DOM showed several price levels with like 40K contracts, and I kept thinking...if they can push this a little lower, these guys are gonna bail, and the market is going down. Just didn't happen.

Thanks for the analysis on BA and the Dow. I knew something had hit the Dow really hard...but wasn't sure what it meant. That is one reason I just kept holding. Interesting how these things work together. I think that is what I find so fascinating about markets/trading.

Ddawg

After typing that I realized you could reverse my idea about size on the DOM and say it was actually a sign of support/strength...so thanks again. Think you opened my eyes a little bit on that.

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josh View Post
Ditto -- I bought 67.50 around 12:15 ET. If you look at how BA was pulling down the dow at that time, yet how the S&P just would NOT break down, then it's clear ES wanted to try for a new high. Then there was the France downgrade and I puked at the same price, expecting at least a new low by 1 tick. But in the next couple of minutes it became again clear that ES was just too well bid to not get back in so I did, again at the same price.

Nicely done! Im just not at that level yet to be honest to do that type of trade. I was watching the DOM/footprint like a hawk and overall my impression was NOT "this thing is going to get crushed" but rather "they just cant take this thing down" so I hung in there as long as (i thought) I could before they finally shook me out. Basically I saw two possibilities happening- either they actually do take it down to 64.5 where I would buy or they 1 or 2 tick the low which is instantly just gobbled up and I was ready to hit the "buy market" button for a ride up to new hi. Instead neither happened and because my mind was locked into either A or B to resolve itself I did nothing as C played out...

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josh View Post
...While you are seeing a "poor low" form (and it technically was a poor low), in fact it was simply so well bid that it was a very strong buy....

I really have a hard time grasping the concept of a poor low here. In fact, i would rather consider it as a top quality level of support right at the IB high and 1 minute opening range of the previous day. Before even the day started this was a level of support. On a TPO profile this level emerged as a buying ledge. Let's pretend price would have broken this level and would have went long at 64. Now you would have faced resistance because of the change of polarity, ie, support becoming resistance. A poor scenario for the long side and a seducing level for the short side.

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Ddawg View Post
and I kept thinking...if they can push this a little lower, these guys are gonna bail, and the market is going down. Just didn't happen.

And the thing is, on any other day it might very well have played out that way. It doesn't mean anything really about your read, it just means that the randomness of the market happened to play out the way it did today. Monday the same thing might happen, and it might play out exactly as you had expected. Best thing to do is act on the scenario you deem most likely, manage the risk, and that's what you did, so no worries.



Profiler View Post
Instead neither happened and because my mind was locked into either A or B to resolve itself I did nothing as C played out...

@Profiler, because you were long from 69s, it simply altered your perspective--you had been in the trade for a while, and the picture had shifted quite a bit from when you got in the trade. This is a prime example of how actually trading is different from looking at a historical chart. After begin in a day trade for 3 hours, your mind is in a totally different place than somebody who's just looking to initiate a position. I was in the long for over an hour, and after I thought the BA pull down was over, here comes the France downgrade which had me immediately bail because I fully expected a quick run lower. But it didn't happen, so I got back in. But had I not had a position on, I would have not been thinking to get out of anything--I would only see the potential opportunity. So where we are positioned has a large effect on how we perceive market activity--it's unfortunate but it's how we are as humans, and it's something we have to deal with!



trendisyourfriend View Post
Before even the day started this was a level of support. On a TPO profile this level emerged as a buying ledge. Let's pretend price would have broken this level and would have went long at 64. Now you would have faced resistance because of the change of polarity, ie, support becoming resistance. A poor scenario for the long side and a seducing level for the short side.

I agree, this is one way to look at that scenario. Still, with the lack of much selling interest and the potential to close the week with a new all-time high close, following Thursday's new record, I would tend to treat most activity like this as an opportunity to buy. But I agree that holding 67 was a much more favorable scenario for longs than a stop run to 64s. From a risk perspective, I would have bought around 64, expecting at least an attempt back up to 67, with a likely run for 70s, for the relatively small risk (about 4-6 ticks). While 67 was the HOD early Thursday, it was traded through quickly on the way up later in the day, after which it found buyers later in the day, and early Friday. The fact that 67s was a low volume price means not only that it is support or resistance, but that it simply is rejected--sometimes that means it is rejected by means of a reversal, as you mention, but other times it is rejected by continuation, as was the case Thursday afternoon. I know you know this, but it's just one way to frame it. All said and done, I think a good case can be made either way, and all that matters is to take an appropriate risk on the trade and see what happens!

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  #494 (permalink)
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Economic data: retail sales, empire, biz inventories

ON Profile: Small 6 pt range on VERY light volume of only 102k so far. The low is only 2 ticks below prior settlement and is coincident with prior vpoc. The hi is above pHi and 2 ticks above the 1675.25 CHVN. Vpoc currently at 1674.25. Profile shape generally balanced.



ES balanced above friday's vpoc in a quiet overnight session so far with even retail sales barely causing a blip. The focus is squarely on the 1679.75 all time hi at this point as the strength in this market is impressive and sellers can't get anything going at all. At the moment, ES is set to open OAIR above value or OAOR. I expect some weak responsive sellers initially to give way quickly to the bulls who grind it up to 1669.75. What happens there will be interesting. Acceptance above just continues the grind. However, if it turns out that sellers are lurking there then we could end up with a nice big reversal down day to clean up some of the nvpocs and gaps left behind. All time frames are extremely bullish at this point.

Levels Above: 1675.25 CHVN/ONHI*, 1679.75 all time hi***...1700

Levels Below: 1670 nvpoc/ONLO*, 1667 pLo, 1664.5 nvpoc**, 1658.25 CHVN**, 1655 CLVN, 1648.5 BAH***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR/OR and sells off weakly to 1670 then bulls grind higher up to 1670 and either continues or is rejected strongly.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR/OR and bulls push higher but fail at ONHI and then sellers liquidate down to 1664 to pick up buyers.

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Interesting my all time high is at 1680, barchart is at 1680.25 and yours at 1679.75. What number to use for a perfect double top?

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trendisyourfriend View Post
Interesting my all time high is at 1680, barchart is at 1680.25 and yours at 1679.75. What number to use for a perfect double top?

How about the undisputed S&P cash high of 1687.18

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  #497 (permalink)
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No trades today...



Recap
ES opened OAOR and grinded higher ever so slightly falling a tick short of new all time hi's. Value and vpoc shifted higher. Price closed higher (above pHi) and inside value on extremely light volume of about 730k- I have never seen a full day with such light volume. Overall market continues higher. Still no sellers in sight at near all time hi prices, what price are they waiting for???

I did no trades today as I just couldn't justify any. Its frustrating. I could blame the fact on the range only being 7.25 pts and volume being non-existent and that would be partially true. I consistently fail to come up with trades on days like today. But I have no doubt good traders found at least one good trade today and executed and made money. Frustrating... Tomorrow is another day.

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  #498 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
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72 was a great spot to buy, as was 70. But it's all relative--maybe good spot, but is the market "singing" to you? I did not take any trades today either. Just no volume, no range, and no real opportunity. Don't underestimate the skill required to just sit on days like today. Seriously, these are outlier type days--7.25 range, < 700K volume... lowest vol so far this year. No need to waste money on subpar activity if nothing jumps out at you. Believe it or not, lots of people will get killed on a day like today, trying to squeeze blood out of a turnip, as they say. Consider it a good day, good learning experience. You didn't see anything, so you didn't do anything--that alone is better than most in the herd.

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  #499 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,054 given, 14,505 received


Profiler View Post
Still no sellers in sight at near all time hi prices, what price are they waiting for???

Maybe the question is, what guidance from Bernanke on Wednesday (and somewhat Thursday I suppose) will they hear? Since Bernanke's flub-a-dub in May, the fed had to pull out all the stops to get this thing going again--speaker after speaker, Hilsenrath, the whole lot saying "whoa there market!" in order to get it back up (too bad for them, bond market is not buying it and yields still much higher than they want). Wednesday should provide some volatility--no seller wants to jump in when Bernanke and the crew might come out with an even more dovish policy stance, and be caught holding the bag. Just remember, statement released Wednesday at 8:30am ET, then the proceedings at 10am including questions, so be on your toes early Wednesday.

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  #500 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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josh View Post
no seller wants to jump in when Bernanke and the crew might come out with an even more dovish policy stance, and be caught holding the bag.

indeed, good point.

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