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Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling


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Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling

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  #441 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 589 received

1. Long 1613.5 below 1614.5 MP single/1615 CHVN on big rotation down in overnight session. Scratched after 3 min when a poor low formed. Would have been winner.

2. Long 1606.5 after open OAOR and initial move down failed 1 tick below ONLO. Taking chance responsive buyers come in and rip it higher. Stopped after 2 min and .75 MF.

3. Long 1605.25 mid/vwap/ONLO on 2.75 pt move down. Worried because this is second test after ES re-entered pRange and came back down but I missed the first because of the 9am number. Stopped after 1 min. Instant loser basically.

4. Sold 1600 on 3.75 pt move up trying to get on the short side today. Scratched after 3 min and .5 MA vs 1.0 MF because I want to try and re-enter at 1601.5 mid/vwap/LVN and its printing a lot of volume here inside dVA. Would have been a winner...

5. Sold 1599.5 after 1600 vwap printed lightly. Scratched after a minute because this feels strange and I think I can get a better price. Would have been a loser.

6. Sold 1600.75 mid for above reason. LVN at 1601.75 to possibly offer resistance help. Vpoc shifted to 1659.5 and its gone down several times and been unable to print below 1659.25s which is annoying. Scaled after 13 min and .75 MA. Second scale given but only after it had a nice short squeeze pop that went 7 ticks against me but stopped right at the VAH so would have been a great place to add.

7. Sold 1596 HVN/-1 vwap on a 3.75 pt bounce off the low which is now a double bottom so I am thinking this thing might crap out and also I think 1586.25 nvpoc is a realistic end of day target. Scratched after 11 min and 2.5 MF vs 1.25 MA. I was planning to hold this for 1592 winner so it went 10 ticks my way instantly but then struggled there and went 5 against me so I took it off. Was a winner.

8. Sold 1596 again, immediate scratch. Profile just does not look complete below and I want to latch onto a good short but from where? Dang, this was the spot... would have been winner to new lows.

9. Long 1586.5 after nvpoc printed 1 tick below so I jumped in on big move down. Definitely stepping in front of a bus here. Scaled after 13 min and 1.0 MA. No second scale.

10. Long 1581.25 after the 1580.75 mc vpoc I noted in pre-market was only taken out by 1 tick. ES down over 43 at this price so definitely extended here. Scaled after 1 min and .75 MA. Second scale given.

11. Long 1580.75 again for the same reason as above after the prior low was only taken out by a tick. Went 8 ticks my way and printed my exit but only 36 contracts and then 7 ticks against me. Stopped after 17 minutes and 2 MF.




Recap
ES opened OAOR and responsive buyers tried hard for 30 minutes but then gave way to aggressive sellers. Vpoc and value moved significantly lower. Price closed near the low end of the range, below value and on serious volume. About 3 mill traded during RTH which is the biggest I have seen in awhile. Importantly, the may 3rd non-farms gap was completely filled and price closed within the balance area running from mar 5 to may 3 with 1540 being the mc vpoc and 1521 being the lower boundry. Big red candle on the daily chart.

My trading was all over the board today. I really expected responsive buyers to show up as evidenced by my first two RTH trades and I paid the price. I did well to switch to a short bias but did not do well in holding trades. I think I gained some valuable experience today. Time for a rest...

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  #442 (permalink)
El Dorado, Ar
 
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Hey Profiler,
I'm just now learning profiling and ran across this. Keep up the good work I will definitely follow from now on!

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  #443 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 589 received



jhobbs92 View Post
Hey Profiler,
I'm just now learning profiling and ran across this. Keep up the good work I will definitely follow from now on!

thanks man! feel free to ask any questions you may have as well and remember this is still a work in progress for me! also, maybe change the profile pic to one of you wearing a shirt or your dog or something?

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  #444 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 589 received

Economic data: none

ON Profile: Large 14.5 pt range last night on heavy volume of 413k so far. The low is only 1.5 pts below the settlement while the hi is 1.25 pts above yesterdays vpoc. ON vpoc is exactly the same as yesterdays, 1596 so both sides clearly liking that price. P shaped profile which indicates short covering and no doubt after the large sell off over the last two days there would be some of that.



ES has sold off from 1649 to 1577 in the last two days making for a 72 pt travel range which is pretty extreme so its no surprise there was short covering into the close and overnight. ES had kind of a double distribution profile yesterday with an LVN at 1590-1592 separating the two. The overnight session primarily traded in the upper but going into the open we are looking at an open in the lower one as we are currently trading 1590. Will it choose to reject one and establish value in the other? I'll be looking short from the open, potentially at 1592 MP single but would feel a lot more confident about it if the ON vpoc were not above it at 1596. I think the short side will pay off today even if the market has an up day as I think there will be many dips. However, if we open above 1592 and sellers probe the lower balance area and are rejected then I think long up to 1603-1608 will work. Longer term time frames are still super bullish but the short term time frame is bearish.

Levels Above: 1592 MP single/LVN**, 1596 nvpoc, 1600 HVN, 1607 CHVN**, 1620.5 mc vpoc***

Levels Below: 1584 HVN, 1580.75 mc vpoc, 1576.5 CHVN/pLO CHVN***, 1567.25 CHVN

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR and rotates higher up to 1596 where sellers step in and push it to 1584 where buyers step in and grind it higher.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and sellers hit it immediately and the day rotates in lower balance area.

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  #445 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 589 received

1. Long 1584.25 HVN/close/2nd after ONLO printed weakly through by 1 tick and it seemed absorption on footprint at settlement. Tried getting long 1583.25 but missed and ended up paying up a full pt. Stopped after 4 min and .25 MF.

2. Long 1577.5 after the 1576.5 CHVN printed weakly and nice bounce so I paid up. Stopped after 3 min and .5 MF. This selling really caught me by surprise today...

3. Long 1572 nvpoc on big move down. Stepping in front of a bus. Instantly 5 ticks against me. Scratched after 2 min, will try and re-enter lower. Would have been winner by itself.

4. Long 1571.25 for same reason above. Seems like buyers are activated here. Scaled after 1 min and .25 MA. Second scale given.

5. Short 1582.5 IBLO/vwap/MID on big 5.5 pt move. Context maybe changing here as ES broke back into pRange after being accepted below it for awhile. Scaled after 2 min and .5 MA. No second scale, it appears context has changed the market is too short now.

6. Sold 1590.25 dVAH on big move up neat the close. Scratched trying to re-enter higher...
Re-entered at same price, man I screwed that up. Took 4 tick loser. Would have been a winner...Give myself an F for this trade.




Recap
ES opened OAIR and rejected yesterdays upper distribution by moving lower thru pLo before finding buyers at 1571.75 nvpoc/2X IBLO and then grinding higher the rest of the day for a wide ranged balance day. Value and vpoc were dragged lower. Price basically closed unch indicating the market is accepting these prices as far. Volume once again very heavy at about 2.4 mill thought not as heavy as yesterday. So after a 2 day 70 handle sell off the market is unable to bounce at all today which to me says lower prices are yet ahead despite the nice bounce off todays low.

I was pretty confused today, didn't really expect pLo to be taken out so aggressively and early in the day especially with ON vpoc right at yesterdays vpoc. So my first 2 longs just got blown out. First one maybe I should not have done but I thought it was good. Second one I had doubts whether it was smart because that would possibly make it the third trip to that level if you count the prior intraday low of 1578.25 as a touch and that gave a strong bounce. So 2 longs, 2 losses right off the bat and I debated whether or not I should take the nvpoc long because maybe this was a trend day but I took it and am glad I did as it turned out to be the low. Those last two trades...man I screwed up. Would have been nice winners but my trade location was poor and as a result both went or would have gone 7 ticks against me but ultimately become winners. I end the day/week on a negative note which sucks as there has been loads of opportunity this week. Time for some R&R.

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  #446 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 589 received




First things first, this market is still well within the confines of a bull market as determined by the longer time frames. The bears have managed to shave off about 6% off the hi reached about a month ago and thats nothing to sneeze at but looking at a larger time frame you can see how far this market has rallied. However, the recent trading has definitely been a change of pace. And looking at the monthly chart, are we really supposed to play this from the long side all the down to 1320 because according to that line I drew on it we are still in an up trend? Obviously not.



I think the way to think about this is that we are in a short/medium term downtrend within a larger uptrend. A rejection of prices below 1590 will lead me to believe perhaps the correction is over and longs should be the primary trade for a move back up to new all time highs. However, as long as prices below 1590 are accepted then I think shorts should be first choice for a move down to the 1540 mc vpoc at a minimum and possibly 1520 balance area low.

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  #447 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 589 received

Economic data: none

ON Profile: Large 21.25 pt range overnight on heavy volume of 320k so far but to be honest given the range I would think volume should be heavier. Pretty fugly looking profile. Vpoc currently at 1568 which is below pLo.



I found it strange that the ES dropped 70 handles in 2 days last week and the following day it closed unch. 70 handles in 2 days and can't even muster a sympathy bounce of 15 points? It made me think further downside was ahead but I certianly didn't expect to wake up monday morning to spoos down 20 but here we are. We have a possible OAOR open with a big gap down. I think the key level today will be the pLo 1570.5, if it can work its way back into pRange then a big rally could be in the cards. If not then look out below. Longer term trends are still very bullish but the short term is bearish.

Levels Above: 1578.5 LVN/pVAL/1580 ledge**, 1584 nvpoc, 1592 CLVN/BAH**, 1596 HVN, 1600

Levels Below: 1567.25 CHVN, 1565 ONLO*, 1558 CHVN, 1552 CHVN, 1548.75 CHVN**, 1540 mc vpoc***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR below value and sellers wack it below pLo but find support around 1567 and then buyers step in and rip it higher thru the day.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and bulls push higher to 1578.5 where sellers step in and slam it down to 1552 where buyers enter.

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  #448 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 589 received

1. Long 1557.5 below 1558 CHVN on nasty selling, stepping in front of a bus here. Sellers in control so far this morning but this is a level I had and ES is down 27 so I took a chance. Scaled after 1 min and .25 MA. Second scale given.

2. Long 1557 for same reason as above plus the low was one ticked only. Going to hold this one for 4 pts as its gone 8 ticks instantly my way. Ah man I screwed this up, it went 12 ticks my way and then all the way back to new lows... Taking 2 pt winner now. Scaled after 4 min and 1.0 MA. Second scale given...would have had my 4 pt winner if I held.

3. Long 1559 HVN/-1 vwap just above dVAL thinking the low of day is in and above 1564 needs to be explored. Scratched after 3 min and 1.0 MA because I dont think context is right. It just got rejected from the dVAH and failed to hold the mid/vwap and feels weak. Would have been loser.

4. Long 1557 dVAL/IBLO after ES made new lows and had nice buying response then popped back into IB by 2 pts so I bot the pullback. Maybe I am swimming upstream here but I really think those 1564's will get taken out. Scratched after 5 min and 1.75 MA. Maybe we need new lows to really get people caught offsides before we can rally? Dang, would have been a winner.

5. Long 1560.25 vwap on 2.5 pt pb after ES pushed above vwap by a few handles then got rejected at mid and back to vwap. Still working this long these, for better or worse. Scaled after 6 min and 1.0 MA. Second scale given.

6. Sold 1579.5 pVAL/LVN ledge on 3.25 pt move up with the ES now 26 pts off lows. Maybe this thing is headed to 1584 nvpoc but decided to take a shot here. Scaled after 3 min and .75 MA. Second scale given.

7. Long 1569 ledge on 3.75 pt move down. Scaled after 4 min and .25 MA. No second scale.




Recap
ES opened OAOR just below pLo and after 27 pts of range finished lower. Vpoc and value shifted entirely lower, no overlapping at all. Price finished down some 17 pts and closed inside value right around vpoc which shifted up at the close. Heavy volume once again of around 2.4 mill. Poor low left behind albeit a nice long wick (above and below actually) on the daily candle. Sellers still firmly in control despite a nearly 100 handle sell off since last wednesday afternoon which seems unreal.

Well if you cut and paste my two hypothesis' this morning you could put together a spot on trade plan for the day! I didn't expect the weakness out of the gate, I thought a move up to 1578.5 first then weakness so I waited for long opportunities and they came. However, the final low of the day really was garbage and I didnt think that would hold, was really hoping for a final flush to 1552 then the big squeeze. I don't know if that low will be revisited tomorrow but I am pretty sure it will be revisited. Nevertheless, I'm satisfied with all my trades except for the last one which gave a scale thankfully but really would be hard pressed to justify it. I just thought it would work to be honest and thats not valid for now at least. So yeah, my best day ever trading this method! Tomorrow is another day.

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  #450 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 589 received


1. Long 1579.5 on 2.75 pt pb off double top hi. Wanted 1578.5 level that had been important the last few days but buyers wouldnt let it go below 1579.25 so I paid up. The low is pVAH and I think this thing is searching for the 1584 nvpoc. This long is just below the dVAH which sucks so my trade location is not good. Stopped after 7 min and .5 MF.

2. Sold 1582 dVAH/IBHI on 1.25 pt move up after decent selling response from 1584 nvpoc and move back inside IB. Stop at new hi. Day is rotational so playing for move back inside. Value is higher on the day which is negative. Scaled after 3 min and .75 MA. No second scale.

3. Sold 1586 2nd vwap on 4.5 pt move up thinking this is extended. Scratched after 4 min and 1.75 MA. Nice selling response finally but my trade was not valid, I had no level here at 86 unless you count the 84 nvpoc below which i don't. Turns out would have been a winner with a scale...




Recap
ES opened OAOR today with an upside gap. Vpoc and value area entirely above yesterdays but still overlapping lower from 2 days ago. Price closed basically right where it opened but still well higher on the day, inside value and at vpoc on pretty lethargic/average volume of about 1.5 mill. Profile shape is very nicely balanced. Daily candle is almost a perfect doji which makes 2 doji's in a row. Not a convincing rally.

Man, I apparently took the strongest cold medicine/sleeping pill in the world last night as I woke up 5 minutes after the open and only because my dog jumped on the bed because he wanted breakfast. The open here in Brasil is at 10:30 am btw and I haven't slept passed 9 am in about 10 years so last night was real unusual. So I had no trade plan to post today and tried jumping in around 1130 am but it sure made things difficult without a plan of attack made and still feeling groggy (even as I write this now at the close). So I did three trades today. First was valid but horrible trade location. Had I waited until the vwap or even where I wanted to get in originally at 1578.5 I would have had a winner. Second trade was legit. Only gave 1 scale, so be it. Third trade turned into a nice winner had I held it but it was still a forced trade and I don't think I should have done it. If only I had a level at 87... So today is a wash for me in more ways than one. No more brasilian cold pills for me during the work week. Tomorrow is another day.

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