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Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling
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Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling

  #411 (permalink)
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5-31 trades and recap

1. Short 1653.5 ;edge/pVAL on 2.75 pt move up. This is second test of level so I am not happy about it and market clearly wanted higher off the open. Scaled after 4 min and .25 MA. Second scale given.

2. Long 1654.25 IBHI after printing weakly 1 tick inside IB. There is an LVN just below at 1653.75 which is also VAH so if that does not hold and is accepted back inside value I am wrong. An HVN has formed above at 1656.5 which might pull it back up. FT is giving a webinar now and he just said the IBHI long here is not a good probability because the hi looks nice and the market isn't trending or anything... I scratched it after 10 min and 1.0 MA vs .75 MA, admittedly because FT scared me out of it. Would have been a loser.

3. Long 1633.75 BO area/CLVN on 3.75 pt move a few minutes before the close. I realize this is risky but had to take the trade. Stopped after 1 min and 0 MF.

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Recap
Wow, what a day! ES opened OAIR and responsive buyers took charge and auctioned it up to pVAH and then ES completely unraveled into the close, aided by some end of the month flushing. We end up with overlapping lower value and vpoc but I think you throw those out the window on a day like today. Price closed significantly down and very heavy volume of about 2.2 mill. Additionally, it closed below the breakout area after non-farms and just above the 1626.5 CHVN. Today is definitely a day to take notice.

You would think with such a big 32 handle range that I could have managed more than 3 trades but I just wasn't see much and maybe thats a problem. The last trade I took is interesting- thats the second time I have bought the exact breakout level and been run over. Maybe todays end of month games were a factor, maybe not but I now have another memory seared into my brain to help in the future. Finally, I screwed up at the close, once I got stopped on my last long I thought there was a good chance that 1626.5 CHVN would print and I was really expecting a bounce from there. But I had 1626 in my head as the level and worked that instead of 1626.5 which indeed offered up an instant 2 pt winner plus a scale. So I missed the trade but at least its good to know the level worked. I end the month with a scratch and that sucks but its better than a loss.

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  #412 (permalink)
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Weekend Update with profiler

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Feels like its been forever since ES has traded in the 1620s (even though its only been 3 weeks) so I thought I would post a chart with some levels in the area as a refresher. 1626.5 was the mc vpoc of all trading since the non-farms breakout until last week when it shifted up to 1656 so its no coincidence that friday bottomed out at 1626. I think 1621 and 1613 will also serve as good support on first tests as well. Below that and the non-farms gap comes into play. To the upside, I would think 1633.75 CLVN would hold on first test given the two prior bottoms to the left. However, as the two charts below show, longer term time frames are still wildly bullish so its quite possible that this market just rips right back up.

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ES has just opened for the sunday night session right around where it closed so no crazy emotions out of the gate.

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  #413 (permalink)
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6-3 pre-market


Economic data: ISM, construction

ON Profile: Nice 12 pt range on above average volume of 313 k so far. The low is 1626.5 CHVN to the tick and the hi is 1638.5 which I can't really come up with a reason for stopping there but the hi does look poor and there is a minor HVN just above at 1640 from friday that people may have front run. Overall shape is somewhat boxy with a nice bottom and poor hi. Vpoc sitting at 1633.

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Friday had a wicked sell off into the close. The fact that sellers were unable to take out friday's low by even a tick indicates to me bulls are in control so far. If sellers are going to try and wrestle the ball away I would think they would want to hold it beneath the 1633.75 CLVN. If they are unable to do so then bulls will be gunning to ramp it back up to 1645 scene of the crime then 1647.75 CHVN for starters and 1656 beyond that. If sellers have some conviction, then back to 1626.5 then 1621 with 1613 below that. We have some important data out at 9am that could cause chop for the first 30 mins and then dictate the direction on the day. Longest time frames are still wildly bullish. Daily time frame is balancing to bearish.

Levels Above: 1633.75 CLVN**, 1645 breakdown level, 1647.75 CHVN**,1651 nvpoc*, 1656 mc vpoc**

Levels Below: 1626.5 CHVN***, 1621 CHVN*, 1613 CHVN***, 1605.5-1594.25 gap

Hypo#1: ES opens OAIR and chops for 30 mins but bulls are able to build acceptance above 1634 and then grind it higher thru the day with occasional selling rips.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and chops and sellers are able to hold below 1634 and grind it lower to 16226.5 then 1621.

Hypo#3- ES opens OAIR and we have a balanced day that rotates between 1626 and 1640 filling in the low volume area on the composite.


Last edited by Profiler; June 3rd, 2013 at 10:31 AM.
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  #414 (permalink)
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6-3 trades and recap

1. Long 1626.5 CHVN/ 2nd vwap after ISM number and only printed 1626.25 weakly so I jumped in. Scaled after 3 min and 1.25 MA. Second scale given. Man almost a 10 handle max winner in only 10 minutes.

2. Long 1630.75 mid on 1.5 pt move down and what looks like buying absorption on footprint, this is vpoc though. Stopped after 2 min and 0 MF... I think this was a bad trade.

3. Long 1621.5 after 1621 CHVN was 1 ticked only. Market definitely weak after a strong mourning bounce off 1626.5. Scaled after 2 min and .5 MA. Second scale given. Could have stayed in trade all day long for ~18 pts.

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Recap
ES opened OAIR and was immediately rejected by the 1633.75 CLVN and headed lower then higher in a 2-way session. Given friday's session, value and vpoc obviously shifted lower. Price closed higher, above value on heavy volume of about 2.1 mill. Profile shape is generally pretty balanced with a poorish hi above.

I made 2 solid trades today that both ran for over 10 pts which would be awesome if I traded multiple lots and was able to let a runner go. More importantly, The market responded to levels that I identified beforehand as likely to generate a response which is nice. If I can consistently identify those levels than trading multiple lots won't be a problem and maybe I can start making some cash. The mid trade today...I thought the low was in but maybe it was poorly chosen because if the low was in, after it ran up above 1633.75 CLVN it should not have fallen back below? I dont know... I am going to run the numbers on my mid trades this weekend, maybe I will dump that set up altogether unless it has crazy confluence going. I should have had more than 3 trades today as well I think given the volatility...

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  #415 (permalink)
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6-4 pre-market

Economic data: trade balance

ON Profile: ES traded in an 8.75 pt range last night which included a bizarre 6 handle spike down and re-trace for some reason. The hi so far is pHi to the tick and it looks somewhat poor. The low is right around the pVPOC but if you exclude that spike it appears the ES has generally been rejecting pVAH. Volume is average at 215k. ON vpoc is sitting at 1635.75 and overall the profile shape is pretty balanced. Advantage bulls.

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Yesterday featured strong rejection of the 1621 CHVN and then worked its way up the thin area of friday's profile. The ON session continued to fill in that thin area and for the moment it appears the bulls are looking for a price where sellers will step in again. Fridays sell off began from 1645.5 and 1647.75 is a big CHVN so that area might be attractive for sellers to re-enter today. Bulls have the ball and we have a possible OAOR on our hands. I anticipate responsive sellers to make the first push and the strength of that will dictate the day. If they can build value first inside pRange and then inside pVA then sellers are strong and look down to 1621 again. But I suspect bulls will enter around pVAH and then auction up to 1647 or possible 1651 nvpoc.

Levels Above: 1640.5 ONHI/HVN from fri, 1645.5 breakdown level, 1647.75 CHVN**, 1651 nvpoc *, 1656.5 CHVN**

Levels Below: 1633.75 pVAH, 1631 nvpoc, 1626.5 CHVN, 1621 CHVN**, 1613 CHVN**

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR/OR and sellers make first push down to pVAH where bulls step in and auction up to 1647 area and sellers step in.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR/OR and buyers make push but fail at ONHI and sellers step in. If they build acceptance inside pVA then look for move back to 1621.

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  #416 (permalink)
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6-4 trades and recap

1. Long 1633.25 pVAH/2nd vwap/CLVN on 2.5 pt move. Tight stop on this one since I would like to get long below around 1631 nvpoc as well potentially. Scaled after 6 min and .75 MA. Second scale given.

2. Long 1629 HVN/ledge from yday on 8 pt move down. Stopped after 7 min and 1.0 MF.

3. Sold 1633.5 mid/CLVN/ledge on 5 pt move. Man crazy day so far and not sure if this will work but took it. ES broke down from 1632.25 earlier so hoping sellers re-enter with this confluence. Stopped after 8 min and 1.0 MF. Well I got stopped out a tick off the hi of the move...

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Recap
ES opened with a 1 handle sell off followed by a 7 handle open drive type move only for sellers to enter at the same price as they did on friday and wack it all the way down to the same level they did on friday before ripping it back up to the mid. Wild day. End result is overlapping higher value and higher vpoc. Price finished lower and inside value on high volume of about 1.8 mill. ES continuing to thoroughly auction the thin part of fridays profile. Strong buyers again present at 1621 and strong sellers at 1645. Will they be there on the third test? Im going to bet not.

Such a disappointing day today... had I gotten in at the two levels I had marked pre-open they would have been monster trades (if I traded size). First one I wasn't even close to getting on since I truly was waiting for 47's to print before getting in since the market opened so strong. But the long from 1621 I tried getting in on and tried lifting the 1622.5 offer, missed it, kept my bid in there and it never came back. Blah blah, I missed the trade. I did add "buy market" and "sell market" buttons to my DOM after that trade so next time I will be in it. The first trade I actually did do was in my plan from this morning and it did work for about 4 pts, nothing special. The other two I thought were legit but they didnt work out. Tomorrow is another day...

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  #417 (permalink)
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6-5 pre-market

Economic data: ADP, productivity, factory orders, ISM

ON Profile: We have a 10.5 pt range on 240k so far which is higher than average. The hi is 1.25 pts above yesterdays settlement and the low is a tick above yesterdays low. Vpoc sitting 1624. Profile shape is tapered at the high with a boxy middle that fills out into a distribution near the bottom.

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Very interesting day we have on tap. Some important econ data out at 9 so that could set the tone for the day. ES has balanced the last 2 days within the lower tail of friday's big sell off/thin zone. Yesterday it auctioned higher back up to the breakdown zone and found sellers waiting again who took it down to Mondays low where buyers were found, again. MC vpoc for last 2 days is 1631.5 and overnight session hi is just 3 ticks above it and we are currently trading 1624. Sellers have the ball here and I dont think a 3rd RTH test of 1621 will hold and below that is thin, with 1613 CHVN being last area of real support IMO until 1600 and 1592 which is possible today. If buyers are able to hold 1621 again then back up to 1645.

Levels Above: 1635.75 LVN, 1642.75 nvpoc, 1645.75 pHi, 1647.75 CHVN*, 1651 nvpoc**, 1656 CHVN**

Levels Below: 1621 CHVN, 1615.25 CLVN, 1613 CHVN**, 1608 BAL, 1600, 1592 BAH***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR below value and responsive buyers make first push but fail around 1627 HVN/1631.5 MC vpoc and sellers enter and slam it, potentially down to 1592.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and sellers make first push to below 1621 but cant hold and bulls auction it back up to 1645 through the day.

Hypo#3- ES opens OD lower, get on board!

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  #418 (permalink)
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6-5 trades and recap

1. Sold 1622.75 at bottom of a big 6 pt move down trying to play for a breakdown, could be a disaster... Instantly 7 ticks against me. Scaled after 3 min! Second scale given.

2. Sold 1622.75 again on 2.75 pt move up. There is an LVN here with a nice ledge above and if this level doesn't hold I think the bear case is over for today. I don't like how it went below pLo and then came back. Scaled after 8 min and 1.0 MA. Second scale given.

3. Long 1612.75 on 1.5 pt pb after missing it on first touch of 1613 CHVN. Strong move down from IBLO but we have a very pronounced vpoc above at 1615.5 which could act as a magnet. Scratched after 25 minutes and 2.25 MA vs 1.0 MF because it printed my stop 3 times so I held on and decided to scratch-seeing decent buying come in now actually.... will try to get long at the low depending how they treat it. Would have been loser.

4. Long 1608.5 bottom of balance from breakout after 8.25 printed weakly and looks like iceberg bid coming in at 8.5 so I joined. Thinking could see a move back up to vpoc before an afternoon yard sale. Scaled after 13 min and 1.0 MA. Interestingly there was a pretty sharp break of lows by only 1 tick with immediate ramp up that resembled yesterdays 1 tick of the low that ended up being the low of the day. Second scale given. Did trade up 8+ handles to vpoc as suspected and has now come off 4 handles so far so keep that in mind for future reference as the bounce off lows was very strong.

5. Long 1607 on 2.5 pt mvoe down basically taking a chance that the LOD is in given the strength of the bounce off it and i'm wrong with new lows. Scaled after 3 min and .25 MA. Second scale given. Admittedly once I put the trade on and walked away because I didn't want to watch it.

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Recap
ES opened OAIR below value and pushed higher but was strongly rejected before it could enter pVA. 1621 double bottom was taken out and price exploration lower ensued all the way down to the nonfarms breakout low to the tick. Vpoc and value are decidedly lower. Price closed near the lows but inside value on heavy volume of about 2.3 mill. We have a good sized red candle on the daily and the gap zone below awaits.

Biggest winning day for me so far with this style of trading and I am pretty happy about it. The money is nice but its better that my first hypothesis of the day was pretty spot on and my context reading was good. That first trade was a horrible entry being a tick off the bottom of a 6 pt move and I debated waiting for a little pullback to the dVPOC at 1624.25 but just decided to let it fly. Luckily it didn't go 1 more tick against me otherwise it would have been a loser since I wasnt using a manual stop on that one. All other trades I described above so I won't rehash but I am happy with them and all gave second scales. Interesting how the market stopped at the breakout low to the tick. I cant imagine that will hold again and literally its an air pocket until 1594.25 but maybe support at 1600? Also interesting how sellers entered from 1629 today, be interesting to see if that is a level to carry forward given the magnitude of the sell off. Finally, today was a good day and the last few weeks have been good for me, but is it because of me or is the market just throwing some berries off? Hopefully its the former.

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  #419 (permalink)
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6-6 pre-market

Economic data: claims, ecb presser

ON Profile: ES has a 10 pt range so far on light volume of about 200k so far. The low is above pLo and just 3 ticks below pClose so there was no further selling interest. The hi is 1616.75 which is just a few ticks above the afternoon hi, not sure if that is coincidence or not. ON vpoc sitting at 1612.5 which is just about inline with yesterdays vpoc and the 1613 CHVN. Profile shape is kind of unusual with a very distinct p-shape that just had its top taken out by a bit.

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I don't think I am alone in wishing the markets had sold off overnight and we would have an OAOR gap down with the potential to buy near 1594 for a big rally back up but c'est la vie. Tomorrow is the big nonfarms number and I suspect people will be wanting to do anything crazy ahead of it. Combined with the fact we are set for an OAIR near the 1613 CHVN I am thinking we have a rotational day on tap with an upside bias as longer term trends are still positive. I won't be looking long near pLo unless a probe below it is quickly rejected. If sellers can build acceptance in the gap then I look for a move down to 1594. The upside is a bit trickier as far as initiating shorts. 1619 is the CLVN dividing the balances areas centered by the 1613 and 1626 CHVNs and is also confluent with yIBLO and a swing hi from yesterday so that might be an interesting area. Additionally 1621 area was double bottom from this week. Then above is the 1626 CHVN and 1629 pHi where sellers entered aggressively yesterday. Tough day to read and I think this will be a really good day to study after the fact.

Levels Above: 1613 CHVN, 1619 CLVN*, 1626 CHVN**, 1629 pHi, 1635.75 LVN**

Levels Below: pLo 1605.5, 1600?, 1594.25 BAH*, 1592.5 nvpoc*, 1589 CHVN**

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR inside value and chops, probes below pLo but is rejected then rotates up to 1619 and is rejected again and closes near 1613.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and chops, pushes higher to 1619 and is rejected then sells off down to 1594 where buyers step in.

Hypo#3- ES grinds higher all day up to 1626 or possibly 1635.

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  #420 (permalink)
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6-6 trades and recap


1. Long 1608.75 mid on 4 pt pb. Market opened and probed below pLo and was swiftly rejected and built value inside pRange with vpoc at 1610.75 currently so expecting test up to 1619 today. Decent selling response off HOD though so not sure about this. Stopped after 2 min and 0 MF. Here is why I think this trade was stupid. The first pullback to mid worked well as aggressive demand bid up the spoos and it built value there and chopped around before pulling back. On the mid I took, the market shot up to highs and just as swiftly came back down.

2. Sold 1605.5 pLo on 2 pt move, scratched it instantly after it spiked 6 ticks in my face. Didn't get filled on first touch and should have pulled on 2nd touch but didnt. Would have been loser with auto stop, winner with manual.

3. Long 1603.5 dVAL/ 1st vwap/IBLO. We have a very strong bounce off the low and entered back into dVA but got rejected by pLo/vwap which is a negative. However, I think the bounce off low is more important context and combined with fact that I think the top of the profile looks incomplete and can see a move up to 1619 yet I took the long. Scaled after 5 min and .25 MA. Second scale given.

4. Sold 1621 CHVN on 5 pt move into the close, def not recommened but trying to call a top considering non-farms tomorrow and maybe people will take profits into close. Stopped after 8 min and .5 MF. Dumb.

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Recap
Wild, rotational day in the ES today. A deep probe into the gap zone was strongly rejected and ES then rotated all the way back up to the other side of balance around 1613 CHVN and nearly to the 1626 CHVN. Interestingly we still end up with overlapping lower value and vpoc. price closed on hi's and above value on very heavy volume of about 2.3 mill. Daily candle has a nice long wick on the bottom.

Man my trading sucked donkey today, 3 out of the 4 trades I did were garbage. On the other hand, the one good trade I did do was awesome and with size could have been held for max winner of over 20 pts. But I am still a one lot trader and one day I will stop making these foolish trades that prevent me from graduating to 2 lots. I firmly believe that as long as I can manage my risk and keep my losers small and stay in the game without losing too much that I will figure this out. So we found another area in 1596 that buyers aggressively entered because they thought it to be too cheap. Last major selling response started at 1629 yesterday so maybe that is the ultimate destination for this auction and then see what happens from there.

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