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Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling


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Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling

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  #301 (permalink)
 trendisyourfriend 
Market Wizard
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Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader wt Rancho Dinero's profiling tools
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I have a question regarding your profit target in general. Why do you select a target that is so small? The idea behind MP is certainly to aim at a bigger profit per trade. You can't create a viable edge with such small targets. The aim of a lot of profilers on the ES is to catch between 5-10 pts. There is even that famous 10 handle rule that is often mentionned to this effect.

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  #302 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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trendisyourfriend View Post
I have a question regarding your profit target in general. Why do you select a target that is so small? The idea behind MP is certainly to aim at a bigger profit per trade. You can't create a viable edge with such small targets. The aim of a lot of profilers on the ES is to catch between 5-10 pts. There is even that famous 10 handle rule that is often mentionned to this effect.

Im aware that to make money in this style of trading you have to let the winners run and that is my plan once i start trading more than 1 lots. But for now i have just been trying to figure out context and what makes good trade location. Ive been debating jumping to 2 lots for a month or so but i guess i have a lack of confidence in myself/my trading to be honest.

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  #303 (permalink)
 garyboy275 
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Today was a weird day in many aspects least of which was waiting for fills. It seemed like all 4 trades I took I was last one to fill and when I got filled it moved another 2-3 points further and I would wait thru 30 minutes of chop for a fill. Crazy.

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  #304 (permalink)
 garyboy275 
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Profiler View Post
Im aware that to make money in this style of trading you have to let the winners run and that is my plan once i start trading more than 1 lots. But for now i have just been trying to figure out context and what makes good trade location. Ive been debating jumping to 2 lots for a month or so but i guess i have a lack of confidence in myself/my trading to be honest.


I am sure you have worked on expectancy in the past before you took this journey even if you are trading a 1 lot avg 4 trades a day

with 50% winners and 6 tic stop 6 tic target you are flat for month

with 40% winners and 6 tic stop 10 tic target you are +32 tics for month


I have read most of your posts right from beginning and you stated that you had an edge that was taken away by algos. And also that you are contextually blind. Its great thing to admit but are you working towards context too ? Imho context is more important than most people give it value. How are your chart reading skills ? There are some great webinars on this site itself and I would recommend you devote sometime to reading charts. It s not instant gratification but over time its very helpful to see how things are unfolding. There are days when they fold exactly as you expect and imo those are the days that make the difference at the end of the month.

I see you are working very hard and I hope you are successful. Goodluck as you make progress.

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  #305 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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garyboy275 View Post


I have read most of your posts right from beginning and you stated that you had an edge that was taken away by algos. And also that you are contextually blind. Its great thing to admit but are you working towards context too ? Imho context is more important than most people give it value. How are your chart reading skills ?

im def trying on working on context, always asking myself whats going on and what its likely to do next but its hard man. i dont really know when to determine an auction has completed itself and a reverse auction is underway vs when one is just pulling back and resting on its way to resume in the direction.

My chart reading skills suck, assuming you are talking about candle formations or something of that nature and to be honest i am not really working on that. my main focus is context. if i can get a handle on context i think i am good.

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  #306 (permalink)
 Profiler 
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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Economic data: new homes

ON Profile: ES was initially under pressure last night but after tagging the mc vpoc it has since rebounded strongly and is printing above pHi. Range is above average at 14 pts and volume is at 254k. Vpoc sitting at 1554.5. Profile shape is trendy with a big bulge near the bottom as most of the night was spent lower but a 9.5 pt rotation higher has left poorly auctioned areas in its wake.



Bulls will not give up on this market it seems. ES rotated from BAH at 1570 last monday down to BAL at 1531 last thursday and we are now approaching 1570. Will sellers emerge around that level again? ES is headed for another OAOR up open or possibly an OAIR above value. Im anticipating responsive sellers on the open and a move back into pRange but not sure how far it will go. Yesterdays responsive sellers really took it deep into pRange. I think buyers will step in, possibly 1555.25 area and then grind it higher back up to 1570 level. Longer time frames are bullish, daily time frame is balancing.

Levels Above: 1562.25 LVN from 4-16, 1568.75 nvpoc/BAH*, 1572 nvpoc, 1574.5 CHVN

Levels Below: 1557 nvpoc, 1555.25 yLVN, 1551.5 CLVN/yLVN, 1548.5 mc vpoc/ONLO**

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR/OAIR above value and responsive sellers push into pRange but stall ~1555 and bulls auction higher up to 1570 and possibly above.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAOR/OAIR above value and pushes higher but fails near ONHI and sellers step in pushing to 1557 then 1548.

Hypo#3- ES opens OD higher.

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  #307 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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1. Sold 1562.25 LVN from 4-16 on 9 pt move pre-market. This was a very clearly defined LVN from that day seperating 2 distributions so combined with large rotation think its good odds for a scale. 17 min into the trade and its gone 3 ticks MF vs 2 MA and printing my entry, not looking good as sellers just arent interested yet it seems and a poor hi has formed. Stopped after 25 min and .75 MF. Unreal, this is now a 10.75 pt rotation.

2. Long 1569.5 vwap on 4 pt move. Debated waiting for dVAL at 1568 but overall context on the day is bullish: gap up open, open drive higher, one time framing higher until just before the twitter news and a poor hi above with over 4k at top tick. Pff, traded my stop but I switched to manual because it looked like someone was coming in and puking out. Scratched after 3 min and .25 MF vs 1.75 MA. Would have been a great trade from dVAL.




Recap
ES opened OAOR/possibly OD with an upside gap, printed 2 ticks below the open and never looked back- until the afternoon twitter swoon. Im going to disregard that action. It did happen but I don't think its relevant especially considering the market quickly returned to the scene of the crime. ES finishes with higher value and vpoc for the third day in row. Price closed just off the poor hi and above/at value on better than average volume (1.65 mill). Additionally, it closed above the 1569-70 breakout area and one would think the logical target is the hi at 1593.

Today sucked. My first trade didnt work then I had problems for the first 30 minutes with my charts so I couldnt trade the open. For the second day in a row there was a juicy pullback to the mid right before the 9am number so I couldn't take it. Today offered up a second chance a few minutes later though and I didn't take it because it was second test and I was forced to watch it go higher the rest of the morning with no good entry. Then the twitter crash happened and I debated just not doing a trade for the rest of the day after that nonsense. I took the vwap trade though and would have been stopped if I had used the automatic stop but I pulled that based on the action, which was the right call in this case at least, because some 1000 lot trader kept moving his offer down and he was real. He can't be happy with his fills now because that was the bottom. Im trying to pay more attention to the VAH and VAL in initiating trades and today the VAL was a sweet trade.

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  #308 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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Economic data: durables

ON Profile: ES opened in range and pushed lower to yIBHI then rallied up to and beyond pHi. We have a poor hi at 1579 which is an LVN from 4-12 and right where supply started to come in to the market on the composite building up to the CHVN at 1582.75. Vpoc is sitting at 1576.25 and volume is light at 216k. Profile shape is generally balanced and the ES is currently back within balance trading right around pHi.



ES has rallied almost 50 pts since last thursday's low of 1530.75 to this mornings pre-market hi of 1579 which makes for quite a move. Today could be the third gap higher open in a row. You have to respect the strength but the short side is looking tasty. Since the bottom, the most traded price is 1573.25 which means sellers finally found a price they wanted to step in at (conversely buyers gobbled it up as well). Durable goods are out and it seems to not be good and our OAOR is potentially off the table. So for today, I anticipate an OAIR inside value with a downside bias. Perhaps yesterdays twitter crash low will be revisited. The ONLO will be key, if it peaks below and finds no additional business then we have to continue looking upward to find sellers. But if new business is found below then there is little in the way between it and 1557.

Levels Above: 1573.25 nvpoc, 1574.75 pHi, 1579.25 ONHI/LVN*, 1582.75 CHVN, 1588 CHVN

Levels Below: 1571.5 ONLO*, 1566.75 CHVN, 1557 twitter lo**

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR inside value and pushes higher to pHi and fails where sellers step in and auction down to ONLo and if accepted down to 1557, if not back up to 1582.75.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR inside value and pushes lower to ONLO but fails and bulls grind it higher the rest of the day.

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  #309 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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1. Shorted 1576.25 on 2.5 pt move up after printing 77 Hi from 4-15 (day of big sell off) weakly then leaving a big ledge below it. Scaled after 3 min and .5 MA. Second scale given.

2. Sold 1546.5 mid/vwap/pHi/pVAH on 3.75 pt move. So we popped above pHi then came back into range and established value but really struggled taking out the ONLO and have had a nice bounce off of it so really tough to say, Im hoping sellers keep it in pRange. The hi is poor as it has been touched twice. Stopped after 13 min and 1.0 MF.

3. Long 1575.75 on top of 2.25 pt move up as I have reversed my short and targeting the poor hi above. Maybe too aggressive as its near VAH but it pulled back and failed to print pHi so I jumped in. Instantly 4 ticks against me, regretting this trade already. Stopped after 10 min and .5 MF. Day is looking rotational now so outsides in?

4. Long 1573 dVAL on 2 pt rotation. Rotation sucks but I think context still favors the long as the poor hi above combined with buying tail off the low and rotational day makes me think this trade has edge. After 30 min its gone 4 MA and 1.5 MF but only printed 33 contracts at my exit. Scaled after 34 min and 1.0 MA. Second scale given.




Recap
ES opened OAIR above value and basically spent all day rotating between 1572 and 1577 with a peak above and below each. Value and vpoc shifted incrementally higher on the day. Price closed inside of value and inside prior days range. Volume was pathetic at 1.12 mill. Profile shape is about as close to gaussian as you can get so market either just wanted to consolidate for the day or is awaiting further information. The daily candle is a near-perfect doji which could signal a reversal? On the composite, 1573.25 became even more pronounced as the most accepted price in the area.

My first and last trades were good and I am pleased with them. Trading multiple lots they would have given a couple scales each making really nice trades. The mid short I had serious doubts once the bears struggled around the ONLO area but I still thought it would work. The reversal long after I got stopped was so stupid. I really thought it was going to make new highs right then and there, funny how the market makes you think things. The good thing about it is that after that I realized we were in a balanced day and playing in the middle prolly isnt the best thing to do. Maybe I should have realized that earlier though?

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  #310 (permalink)
 Profiler 
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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Economic data: claims

ON Profile: We have a 12 pt range so far on light volume (208K). Es traded down to pLo to the tick and found buyers that have auctioned it beyond pHi and to the 1582.75 CHVN after some consolidation at yesterdays vpoc. Profile shape is pretty ragged.



I must admit I was expecting the ES to open lower today. Yesterday was a perfectly balanced, rotational day with clear agreement on value around 1575. We are now set to open above that and above pHi which is obviously very bullish but I can't help but think about the short. Hopefully the market will give us a nice clue which way to go on the open. I think the reaction to the ONHI/CHVN at 1582.75 will be they key. If it fails there or pushes through only slightly then falls back below and builds value then the nvpoc at 1575.75 is the natural destination and potentially back to the other side of balance at 1570. However, if buyers can build value above the ONHI then 1588 is on deck and all time hi at 1593. Longer time frames are bullish. Is daily still balancing or is that bullish now too?

Levels above: 1582.75 ONHI/CHVN***, 1588 CHVN, 1593 all time hi**

Levels Below: 1578.75 pHi/CLVN, 1575.75 nvpoc*, 1573.25 CHVN, 1570 CLVN**, 1566.75 CHVN, 1557 twitter lo

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR and responsive sellers push to pHi/nvpoc to pick up buyers and then grind it higher thru the day.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAOR and buyers push to near ONHI but fail and sellers step in to auction it lower to 1575.75 nvpoc and possibly to 1570.

Hypo#3- ES opens OD up.

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  #311 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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1. Sold 1578.5 pHi on top of 2.25 pt move down after it broke above OSHI only 3 ticks then back inside and printed OSLO for 3rd time anticipating that to get taken out. Scaled after 3 min and .25MA. No second scale given. ES with a nice bounce off lows that failed before VAH and nvpoc. Bottom in?

2. Sold 1582.75 CHVN/ONHI on 4 pt move after it printed 2 ticks above then back and a 3000 lot iceberg was a tick above. Negatives for this trade are that we were rejected from pRange and bounced strongly off the lows. Stopped after 2 min and .25 MF. Dumb trade.

3. Long 1584.5 IBHI on 1.5 pt pb. Why did I take this? Vpoc is sitting 3 ticks off the HOD and buyers have really taken control of this day with only 2 2 pt pulbacks since the low. That said, is this my best entry? I dont know but ptobably not, we will see. 25 minutes in it has gone 5 ticks for me and 2 ticks against but its not back to entry and I am thinking maybe it needs to go down first before it can go back up so I might get taken out. 35 min its gone 5 ticks against me... 67 minutes in it traded my stop but only 242 contracts so I am still in it. Vpoc shifted down to 1583.75. 105 minutes in it went +5 MF again and now back at entry. Annoying. Hard stop in at 83 now. Hi sure does look poor but market doesn't want to fill me. Scaled after 113 minutes and 1.5 MA. Second scale given.

4. Sold 1588 CHVN on 5 pt move. Bullish day so far and I took this because of the magnitude of the rotation and the fact that there is a big ledge at 1586.5 that I feel will be repaired before the day is over. This day could easily target 1593 all time highs as 2 hours are left. Scaled after 20 min and .25 MA. Second scale given.

5. Long 1582.5 mid/dVAL on 4 pt move. Looks like some longs are puking out here. Overall bullish day that had range extension higher so looking for some support here. Stopped after 11 min and .5MF. Took a 10 tick loser on this as I went with manual stop and it got away from me.




Recap
ES opened a tick above pHi and chopped a bit before bouncing off prior days VAH and heading higher. Responsive sellers were laying in the weeds at 1588 and almost took it back down to lows but pHi proved to be formidable support. ES closes with higher value and higher vpoc. Price closed above pHi, inside value and right around the 1582.75 CHVN. Volume was average at 1.3 mill. The daily candle has a nice wick on top. The composite didnt change much after today.

I managed to make 2 ticks today which is better than none right? It seems to me that I am liking more and more taking trades at CHVNs and nvpocs better than CLVNs. I will have to do some stats this weekend but it seems CLVNs are for the birds. Im wondering if that selloff at the end of the day could have been predicted by the market structure up to that point? Or did that german news cause that to run farther than it normally would? Because I was thinking with value being established higher and prior range rejected that buyers would come in around the dVAL for an auction back up to dVAH but it didnt happen. Something to keep in mind.

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  #312 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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Economic data: GDP, michigan

ON Profile: We have a 7.25 pt range with a downside bias on light volume (175k) so far ahead of the important GDP number. The high is right around yesterdays LVN which was also the ONHI from yesterday and the CHVN in the neighborhood. The ONLO is the vpoc to the tick from 2 days ago when we had that nicely balanced profile. Vpoc is sitting at 1577.25 and overall profile shape is kind of like a "b".



GDP just came out and its still shaking out but we may have an OAOR on our hands again but to the downside for a change. For now I an anticipate an OAIR below value open with responsive buyers making the first push attempting to get back into value. If they can build value there then I expect it to continue higher but if its rejected then 1570 is on the table and possibly even down to 1577 twitter low. Long term trends are higher, short term is balancing.

Levels Above: 1583.25 LVN, 1585.25 nvpoc, 1586 LVN, 1588.25 pHi, 1593 all time hi

Levels Below: 1575.25 nvpoc, 1570 CLVN*, 1554.75 CHVN

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR and responsive buyers push to 1580 area and fail then bears take over and sell down to 1570 level, if buyers are found then bounce back up and balance, if not elevator down to 1557?

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and sellers push lower but find buyers around 1575 then bulls grind higher into the close.

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  #313 (permalink)
 Profiler 
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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1. Long 1577 after rotation down to pLo only took it out by 1 tick and 30 contracts and same open price as yesterday so maybe same game plan? Scaled after 7 min and .5 MA. Second scale given.

2. Long 1578.75 mid/vwap/open on 2.75 pt pb. This is also yesterdays afternoon pullback low so hoping it holds. Im viewing this as building upon the first trade and prior context of low being in for the day as it 1 ticked pLo. Stopped after 3 min and 1.25 MF. Dang.

3. Long 1573.75 (2 ticks above 1573.25 CHVN) on 3.5 pt move after seeing massive 10k iceberg bid a tick below then only 1 tick that. The low is poor for sure but I was looking for support in this area and someone is buying big here. Instant 5 ticks against me but strong buying response takes it right back to entry. Have to get through IBLO at 74.75 to get my fill. Traded my exit but only 44 contracts now back to entry. 38 min in and its at my entry and really want to scratch and try and get long a little lower but will just let it ride. Scaled after 53 minutes and 1.25MA. Second scale given.

4. Sold 1579 VAH/OPEN/ledge on 2.25 pt move. Filled in top 300 in cue. We have a strong bounce off lows and a rotational day so trying to fade the VAH which is a pt below but I thought this would be a better entry. Scaled after 26 min and 0 MA. No second scale.




Recap
ES opened OAIR below value and put in a rotational day. Buyers were found at the 1573.25 CHVN and sellers were found as ES tried to enter prior value. Value and vpoc shifted lower along with price on weak volume (1.08 mill). Price closed inside value basically at vpoc. A poor hi was left behind so I think that will get cleaned up. Overall I don't think much was accomplished today.

I'm thinking of bumping up to 2 lots next week. My Win-Loss-Scratch ratio is 39.5/42/17.5 after 449 trades and my gross PNL is -$1025.50. So my expectancy is -$2.28. But letting winners run is a huge part of this game and if I trade 2 lots with a 6 and 10 tick target vs 6 tick stop that might bring me to even or possibly slight in the green. I will have to account for trades that hit first target but get stopped on second to really figure out projected expectancy. I guess I was hoping to have a 50% Win ratio on my trades before I bumped my size but maybe that is too aggressive. In my prior life as a scalper I had a 60-20-20 ratio. I don't know, it seems weird for me to be increasing my size as a losing trader though. Anyone have thoughts on this?

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  #314 (permalink)
 garyboy275 
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Good trading today. By now you have enough sample of live trades to calculate your expectancy if you did take 2 lots and scaled 2nd one at 10 tics. In my opinion it can make a huge difference since effectively you are riding on back of the same trade but getting 6:10 odds or overall your expectancy with win 40 loss 42 scratch 18 goes from currently -12tics per 100 trades to positive 136 tics (not calculating the commissions ) however on any downturn your drawdown will be bigger too. Thats assuming every trade that was a winner would also give you your second scale too but I wouldnt be surprised if that % is over 60%. Maybe you can do the homework for that this weekend before you jump in with 2 contracts.

A while back I recommended you trade in direction of gap. The biggest moves generally come in that direction. Maybe look into that too.

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  #315 (permalink)
 Nyati 
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At Profiler, I'm curious to see how much your expectancy increases at 10 ticks. Please keep us posted. You may also wish to consider trying 12 ticks.




garyboy275 View Post
Good trading today. By now you have enough sample of live trades to calculate your expectancy if you did take 2 lots and scaled 2nd one at 10 tics. In my opinion it can make a huge difference since effectively you are riding on back of the same trade but getting 6:10 odds or overall your expectancy with win 40 loss 42 scratch 18 goes from currently -12tics per 100 trades to positive 136 tics (not calculating the commissions ) however on any downturn your drawdown will be bigger too. Thats assuming every trade that was a winner would also give you your second scale too but I wouldnt be surprised if that % is over 60%. Maybe you can do the homework for that this weekend before you jump in with 2 contracts.

A while back I recommended you trade in direction of gap. The biggest moves generally come in that direction. Maybe look into that too.


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 Profiler 
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Ok so I ran the numbers this morning and this is what I came up with.



I only started recording whether or not I got a 2nd scale after a month or so since I started so thats why total trades and PNL are different from what I posted on friday but the % winners and losers are insignificantly different I would say and unless I calculated expectancy wrong, I should definitely not be increasing my size to 2 lots and taking a 10 tick second scale. So I either need to make a higher % of winning trades or really let the winners run.

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 garyboy275 
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What about
1. If you moved stop to breakeven after you got first scale ?
2. How many of your second scale would run for a bigger target ?

The second one is subjective-I wouldn t recommending curve fitting here but its good to keep stats on how far a trade runs after you exit. When market conditions change you get bigger moves in direction of trend change.

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  #318 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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garyboy275 View Post
What about
1. If you moved stop to breakeven after you got first scale ?
2. How many of your second scale would run for a bigger target ?

The second one is subjective-I wouldn t recommending curve fitting here but its good to keep stats on how far a trade runs after you exit. When market conditions change you get bigger moves in direction of trend change.

I'm not sure about either of your questions, I will have to start keeping track of that so I can calculate it. Kind of wondering if it makes sense to maybe do a 4 tick scale then 3 pt second scale or something. I guess I am frozen at the moment about what to do so just will continue to do what I have and hopefully get better while keeping track of more information...

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  #319 (permalink)
 garyboy275 
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I'm not sure about either of your questions, I will have to start keeping track of that so I can calculate it. Kind of wondering if it makes sense to maybe do a 4 tick scale then 3 pt second scale or something. I guess I am frozen at the moment about what to do so just will continue to do what I have and hopefully get better while keeping track of more information...


Its just a mental state. Stay focused and positive. ITs easy to get frustrated in trading. I d say continue doing what you are doing. These markets havent been the easiest to trade anyways. Check fridays action- fills gap and then breaks below IBL, retraces for another short down to 73.50 area. I know its an HVN but then retraces back into IB and goes all the way back to IBH.

Keep an eye for a good break under 73.50 could be a decent roll into 65 then 55 area. Maybe a new channel developing-keep an eye on it-hourly chart and daily below



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  #320 (permalink)
 Profiler 
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
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Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
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Economic data: personal income/spending, homes

ON Profile: ES is trading +6 at the moment after opening lower. Volume is extremely light at only 132k. The low is right at the CHVN/location of iceberg bid from friday while the hi so far is the LVN from Thursday's profile at 1583.25, which is above pHi. Vpoc is sitting at 1581 and most of the volume has changed hands above it/pHi. Profile shape is like a "P".



We have some important data out coming out every day this week so that could really impact the day's trading. Today we are looking at a possible OAOR or an OAIR above value. I'm anticipating responsive sellers on open and depending on whether or not they are able to build acceptance inside prior value will be the key to the day.

Levels Above: 1583.25 ONHI/LVN from 4-25, 1585.25 nvpoc, 1586 LVN 4-25, 1593 all time hi

Levels Below: 1577 nvpoc, 1573.5 CHVN, 1570 CLVN, 1566.75 CHVN, 1554.75 CHVN

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR above value and responsive sellers make first push to 1579 VAH or 1577 nvpoc to pick up buys who auction it higher thrue the day.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR above value and buyers push but fail at ONHI and sellers auction lower thru the day.

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  #321 (permalink)
 Profiler 
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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1. Sold 1589.5 on 4 pt move. Why did I take this trade, I just completely manufactured this trade because I missed the long all morning and wanted to try a short after it 1 ticked the 90 hi. Hopefully they let me out with a scratch. Stopped after a few minutes and 0 MF. So stupid....




Recap
ES opened OAOR and responsive sellers made first push into prior range but failed to get into prior value and from there bulls auctioned it higher thru the day before some selling on the close. ES stopped 1 pt short of new all time hi's. Overall value and vpoc shifted higher. Price closed higher, inside value on very poor volume at barely over a mill (1.03). Profile shape was pretty ugly but vaguely p shaped.

Terrible day. Made only 1 trade and it was so stupid. This market wouldn't let you in as there were no pullbacks greater than 2.5 pts after the low was made until the end of the day. I should have just gotten long when it popped thru the OSHI the second time after rejecting pRange. Shoulda woulda coulda.

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  #322 (permalink)
 Profiler 
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
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Economic data: PMI, consumer confidence

ON Profile: Very tight 4.75 pt range overnight on small volume (144k). It was basically an inside session of yesterdays value area. Really I dont think a whole lot to be gleamed from it other than yesterdays gains were held and market appears to be waiting for info.



ES is set for an OAIR opening with big numbers coming out around 9am so I think the first half hour will be directionless chop and then the 9am numbers will set the tone for the day. Longer term trend is up with the short term balancing but near the top of its balance zone and all time new highs just a few points away. I cant help but think of the horrendous volume the last few days but just brush it aside for now I guess. Yesterdays profile looks pretty poor in the lower half so I can see people using the numbers as an excuse to sell off and repair that but then the bulls jump in and grind it higher again.

Levels Above: 1593 all time hi

Levels Below: 1584 MP single, 1582.75 CHVN, 1577 nvpoc, 1573.5 CHVN*, 1570 CLVN

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR inside value and chops before numbers and sells off to 1583 where buyers step in and grind it higher through the day to new all time hi's.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and chops, peaks above yHi/all time hi and gets rejected allowing sellers to step in and trash it targeting 1570.

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  #323 (permalink)
 Profiler 
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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1. Bot 1583.75 MP single on 3.25 pt move a few minutes before the 9am number. Scratched after 3 minutes and .5 MA vs .75 MF.

2. Short 1585.25 mid/ONLO on 3.75 pt move, dVAH 2 ticks above along with VAL from yesterday. There is a double bottom at the low but otherwise it looks pretty good which works against this trade. Developing value clearly lower on the day but maybe the low is in. Stopped after 5 min and 0MF.

3. Sold 1589 IBHI on 2.5 pt move after just 1 ticking the prior 1 tick with 2nd vwap at 1589.5. I cant believe how stupid that is after I typed it. Its gone against me 4 ticks and printed only 98 at the ONHI so maybe this trade has a chance. Stopped after 13 minutes at 0 MF.

4. Long 1589.5 vpoc. ES has tried 3 times now to break IBHI at 1589 and failed and we have a poor hi above with a double top on daily time frame so I took the long from the fairest price of the day. Scaled after 19 min and .25 MA. Second scale given.

5. Sold 1590.75 just trying to play some momentum of end of month games into the close. Stopped after 2 min. Paid the price.




Recap
ES opened OAIR and sellers made first move only to run out of steam and allow buyers to grind it higher thru the day. Value and vpoc shifted higher but only marginally so. Price closed on highs, above value and above pHi and additionally set another new all time hi by a tick. Volume was average at best at only 1.34 mill. Not much has changed on the composite as 1573.25 is still the most accepted price since the 1530.75 low but 1582.75 is right there with it and another day of trading there should shift it to the vpoc.

I am so unbelievably frustrated with trading now and those two garbage trades I made today I think are proof of that. Plain and simple the market is just clowning me. I keep getting suckered into bad trades because I can't discern context well enough. I firmly believe you have to make tons of crap trades first before you realize they are crap before you take them and actually begin taking the other side but how many more of these do I need to make for that to happen???

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  #324 (permalink)
 Profiler 
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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Economic data: ADP, ISM, Construction, FOMC

ON Profile: Today is a european (and brazilian) holiday so nothing happened last night. ES has a 4 pt range on miniscule volume (78k). A new all time hi was set at 1595.5 and the low is at 1591.5, yesterdays vpoc to the tick. Profile shape is balanced. Really not much else to say about it.



ADP is out and market sold off a few points. Normally on FOMC days I expect a 4 handle chop fest until the number. Today we have 2 big numbers coming out at 9am which could make some noise. Assuming they don't, the plan is for an OAIR to chop around for 4 hours until FOMC and then some potential craziness. If price spikes above pHi and gets rejected then sellers can auction it relatively easily down to 1582.75. If prices above pHi are accepted then 1600 is the magnet I would think. All time frames are trending higher.

Levels Above: 1593.25 pHi, 1600

Levels Below: 1591.5 nvpoc/ONLO, 1588 LVN from yday, 1582.75 CHVN*, 1577 nvpoc**

Hypo#1- ES chops for 4 hours before spiking lower on FOMC then auctioning higher into the close.

Hypo#2- ES chops for 4 hours before FOMC, spiking above pHi but rejected then sold into the close down to 1583 level.

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  #325 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012


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I firmly believe you have to make tons of crap trades first before you realize they are crap before you take them and actually begin taking the other side but how many more of these do I need to make for that to happen???

You should be learning something from every trade you take. Are you?

Do you do more than just say... well this was dumb or that was dumb?

Do you have a process for review at the end of the day where you see what you could have done better with your entries, with your exits, with your stop placement, with your trade management? What you learned that day about how price reacts to x or y, or how trends form, or how it looks when trends change, how intraday price ebbs and flows, how things played out versus the context you were seeing, etc, etc,

Don't just get frustrated and call your decisions dumb. Get better.

Keep up the good work.

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  #326 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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1. Long 1588 LVN/yesterday afternoon swing low on 7.5 pt move right into the open. Stopped after 20 min and 1.5 MF.

2. Sold 1586.25 mid/prior day VAL on 2.5 pt move and only 115 printed on offer above at 1586.5. Not confident in trade at all as low looks good from key area at 1582.75 CHVN to the tick. Stopped after 10 min and .75 MF.

3. Long 1582.75 dVAL/IBLO on 3.5 pt move down after re-entering value and trading almost up to vpoc before being rejected. Hmm, as I think about value has not been moving higher today so maybe this trade does not make sense. Scaled after 16 min and 1.0 MA. No second scale.

4. Long 1577.5 on 2 pt move after 1577 nvpoc printed weakly. Its late in the day so who knows how this will work out but we are trading below 2nd vwap. Scratched at bell after 1.5 MA vs 1.0 MF.




Recap
ES opened OAIR and really made no upside progress at all allowing the bears to pressure it lower. Value was decidedly lower along with vpoc which shifted down to lows at the close but I am not sure that really counts. Price closed on lows as well. Volume once again below average at 1.29 mill. Daily candle looks pretty red but it was a 13 pt range which is totally average and bulls are still in control. The composite and MC still does not change much after today but it appears that 1582.5 is really being fleshed out as the fairest price in the region.

So my expectations for today were completely off base. I was thinking 3-4 hours of chop into FOMC and then some action but instead sellers were far more aggressive out of the gate than I imagined. I've got to stop taking mid trades when there is a strong reaction off the low, especially from known reference points. @indextrader7 My intentions for describing trades as dumb are to sear into memory what I did and not do it again. I like to think I am learning in this process but each day when I review my trades and look at the chart and see where I was active vs where I should have been active I don't really like what I see. The thing about my writing here is that I may seem super depressed or frustrated or whatever with my progress or lack thereof but overall I remain incredibly optimistic and focused.

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  #327 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Two questions:

What are you taking away from your trading today that will make you better tomorrow?

Where were your ideal trades today, and what could you have seen in real time to see them unfold?

Another thing. To me, you seem defensive to most every critique you receive. If you don't want any critique, then please let me know and I'll spend my time elsewhere and there will be no hard feelings!

Looking forward to your answers brother.

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  #328 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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I'm not being defensive, you are being defensive! Im kidding, theres an old SNL skit that is good for that. If i seem defensive about my critiques, its unintended. I fully welcome any critique and invite you to do more any time you want. I do realize that i come off as defensive though and wish i could change that but i just suck at conveying the proper tone i want to convey through writing.

what do i wish i did today? well today seemed pretty tough actually. I wish i had grabbed a long the first time down to 1582.75 because that was a level i was considering pre-market and once it traded i tried jumping in at 1583.25 but didnt get the fill thought about buying 1583.75 but passed and then watched it go up. Worse I decided to take a short at the mid. Im done taking mid trades with strong reactions off known reference points and vpoc up above. I've done that trade a few times now and this was the last straw.

I was thinking about the short at 1581.5 after 2 consecutive inside brackets on MP and going with the breakout but passed. Otherwise, I dont know what would have been good trades. Obviously a short from 1589 would have been the bees knees but what would the reasoning have been?

What did you see today?

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 indextrader7 
Birmingham, AL
 
 
Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Awesome man, glad to hear it.

Yeah, a long of 82.75 area would have been good early on. I was short from 88's on a trade I called out in the S5 chatroom (not sure if you were there) as we headed down there. I was bearish on the day based on how the overnight action took a peek above and was strongly rejected (also something i talked about in chat before the open). So I was bearish, and I had a short position on, and I was looking for 81 as a target, so that level caught me by surprise. I exited the short down there around 84 as it reversed, but didn't have the flexibility or the game plan to get long.

Once we traded above prev MP VAlow, I got long at 87.25, then added to that long at 85. This was a violation of my risk plan, so I scratched at BE and shut everything down for the day.

Honestly that initial entry was more a decision out of fear, because I wanted to get long, but also wanted to wait for a pullback, but was afraid of missing the move.

I can say that if I were to have continued to trade I would have certainly seen that right after 11am cst, when I was exiting my violated trade... I would have shortly been looking to get short because we took that attempt above prev VA low and couldn't accept prices above. That's one of the biggest things I look for often times... what important area do we violate, but then can't stay above/below and accept prices there. I call it a breakout failure, as do many others. It's a great setup as there are trapped traders from the other side of the trade positioned for the breakout of the level to succeed. We profit as they puke out.



So that's all I have for what I saw today. What had 82.75 on your radar pre market?

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  #330 (permalink)
 Profiler 
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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What had 82.75 on your radar pre market?

Its the most traded price on the composite above 1554 so I thought if it came down to there buyers would again see it as a good price to buy. I didnt have a resting bid there though because I was concerned about it holding for a second time as tuesday tested it and bounced from there as well.

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  #331 (permalink)
 Profiler 
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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Economic data: initial claims, productivity, trade balance

ON Profile: We have a 6.75 pt range so far on light volume (174k). It seems there was not much interest to take it lower after the restart since the low is only 2 ticks below the open. The hi is at 1585.5 currently but I cant really figure out a good reason why it stopped there. Initially the 1582.75 CHVN provided resistance. Vpoc sitting at 1581.25. Profile shape is somewhat balanced. Overnight inventory is long.



ES is moving kind of wildly now, having come close to pHi by a few ticks and then being strongly rejected before finding tentative support near 1582.75 CHVN again. Im not really sure how to gameplan this today. I was expecting an OAIR rotational day and will use the ONLO and ONHI as reference points for today. For now, I think sellers make first push and am not sure if 1579 will hold given whats just happened. Will look to short around 1588 again.

Levels Above: 1589.5 pHi/ONHI, 1593.25 all time hi, 1600

Levels Below: 1582.75 CHVN, 1578.75 ONLO*, 1576 pLo, 1573.5 CHVN

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR and pushes lower first to ONLO and flushes down to 1576 pLo to pick up buyers and then grinds higher through the day.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and pushes higher to 1582.75 CHVN and fails then grinds lower through the day.

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 Profiler 
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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1. Sold 1588.5 on 6.25 pt move pre-market. This level acted as good resistance several times yesterday so I think there is a good chance of at least getting a scale on this first test today. Draghi is speaking now which caused this move up so that is a risk. Scaled after 6 min and .25 MA. Second scale given. Wow its really coming off, trading 1582 now. Max winner=8.25 pts.

2. Short 1592 in between nvpoc and naked settlement on 6 pt move after it stopped at 1592.5. Also 1.5 IB. Very strong burst above balance. I am wrong at new all time hi's. 7 minutes in and such a poor hi has formed. Scratched after 23 min and 1.25 MF vs .5 MA. Massive buyers at ahead of my scale and such a poor hi I took it off. Possible trend day as well.

3. Long 1593.25 pHi after new hi at 1594.25 made and could only pull back to 1592.75 with serious absorption at this price. The day is strongly positive. 43 min in its gone 5 ticks against and 4 ticks for me, creating a double top and now back to entry. I think odds are still in my favor but this trade is taking its sweet time and maybe it needs to go lower first before it can take out hi's into the close. 78 min in and its come down to my exit but only printed 132 so I am still in the trade and its back to entry... I hope that was the sell off before new hi's... Stopped after 2 hours and 1.0 MF.




Recap
ES opened OAIR inside value and chopped a bit after making a potent move upward before breaking out again and closing near the hi while making new all time hi. Value and vpoc shifted higher. Volume again nothing special and below average at 1.23 mill. Its almost as if the market wanted to wait for non-farms tomorrow before really breaking out higher.

That first pre-market trade was awesome, wish I could get more of those and I traded size. Second and third trades didn't work out. I really wish I could have latched on to a long today from a good price. Debated that first pullback to mid after the big move higher but I don't know why I decided against. Not going to say much else today as I am switching over to sierra charts now and have to set everything up for tomorrow. Its cheaper, seems to be just as good and IRT has been giving me such headaches lately. You can really tell IRT was designed by an engineer and not aapl, its just not very user-friendly. But it can do anything you want it to.

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  #333 (permalink)
 garyboy275 
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as I am switching over to sierra charts now and have to set everything up for tomorrow. Its cheaper, seems to be just as good and IRT has been giving me such headaches lately. You can really tell IRT was designed by an engineer and not aapl, its just not very user-friendly. But it can do anything you want it to.

Amen

Spent 15 mins watching video how to delete parallet trenlines I accidently put on right in middle of a trade. Everytime you need held with a topic you got to go thru the entire database to find the needle in haystack. Have they ever thought of adding a search function to their website? Website is so 1998.

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  #334 (permalink)
 Profiler 
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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Economic data: none (kidding- nonfarms, factory, ISM)

ON profile: ES traded in a very tight 3.5 pt range ahead of the non-farms report, as expected. Number is out and the market likes it, currently trading 1603 with a 1605.75 hi. Wow.



So we have a large gap up above balance and at new all time hi's which is very bullish. Can the market hold these gains/gap? Dalton says go with the gap. We have nothing to lean on up here except the opening range when it comes out and the globex hi so that will determine the trades. We are set for an OAOR, with the possibility of an OD. You would think at least some of the gap would be re-traced but who knows? Trade what you see.

Levels Above: none

Levels Below: 1600?, 1594.25/1593 BAH***, 1592.5 nvpoc, 1588.5 MP single, 1585.75 MP Single

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR and responsive sellers make first push lower down to ??? before it stabilized and buyers auction higher thru the day.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and pushes higher first and squeezes all shorts out making significant hi and trades lower the rest of the day.

Hypo#3- ES opens OD- go with!

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  #335 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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1. Sold 1601.25 pre-market after release, taking a flyer. Stopped after 18 seconds and 0 MF. Great trade!

2. Sold 1611.25 after finally seeing what looked like a good selling response at 1611.75. Scaled after 14 min and .5 MA. That was a brutal hold, so much buying pressure. Second scale given. Max winner 2.75 pts.

3. Long 1610.5 vpoc on 1.25 pt pb off hi which is a double top. We are almost an hour into the day and no attempt has been made to fill the gab so I am trying to get long. Scaled after 2 min and 0 MA. Second scale given. Max winner 2.5 pts.

4. Long 1611.75 intraday MP single/LVN on 2.5 pt pb from the hi which is a double top and very poor. Tons of volume up there and overall context is still very bullish but I am unsure about this trade still. Vpoc above at my exit. Now 60 min into the trade with 1.0 MF vs .75 MA. Vpoc shifted to a tick above entry and the LVN zone has been completely filled in. ES now balancing and I am long from the middle of dVA. Scaled after 94 min and .75 MA. No second.

5. Long 1610.25 dVAL on 3.25 pt move down. Still have poor hi above but market unable to make much progress beyond IBHI. Scratched after 9 min and 1.5 MA vs .25 MF. Would have been a loser.




Recap
ES opened OAOR with a sizable +15 pt gap higher made after payroll report. It tacked on another 8 pts in the first hour but then balanced the rest of the day. Value and vpoc shifted strongly higher. Price closed much higher but inside value. I dont have the exact volume for RTH only but it was about 1.5 mill which is just a little above average which is kind of a negative. Make no mistake though this was a clear break higher above the 1593 prior balance area high we had been in since march. We have a large gap below us now from 1605.5 to 1594.25. Todays hi was extremely poor and I anticipate that to be cleaned up.

So my charts are pretty wack as I haven't been able to figure out SC yet but I will work on it this weekend. I'm ok with my trades today. First trade was just a stab at maybe some sellers being activated to get it back under 1600. Didn't work at all. Second was a little dicey but I thought I saw a strong selling response finally at that level so I jumped in and it worked out and then after it didn't go far I grabbed a long for the last gasp higher. Winning day into the weekend, I'll take it.

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  #336 (permalink)
 COTtrader 
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@Profiler

Way to go! Taking what the market hath given. Is the look of your chart the one you now trade from?

Ken

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 garyboy275 
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Good trading today. One thing I want to point out on any significant gap, mark the pullback low -todays was 1608.25. See how strong it was all day long. When we came back down around 2:30 it gave a long for a good 4 points to 12 area and then at end of day held very strong at end of day too and so far in after hours hasnt broken. Dont ask me why but I've seen this thing over the years---its same thing in bear markets on gap downs.

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  #338 (permalink)
 Profiler 
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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@Profiler

Way to go! Taking what the market hath given. Is the look of your chart the one you now trade from?

Ken

thanks Ken! I lifted PB's charts off his website and also am trying to create my own to resemble my old IRT one but turns out SC is about as user friendly as IRT so far so will have to really spend some time this weekend figuring it out. I like the charts you are posting now btw, I can finally read them!



garyboy275 View Post
Good trading today. One thing I want to point out on any significant gap, mark the pullback low -todays was 1608.25. See how strong it was all day long. When we came back down around 2:30 it gave a long for a good 4 points to 12 area and then at end of day held very strong at end of day too and so far in after hours hasnt broken. Dont ask me why but I've seen this thing over the years---its same thing in bear markets on gap downs.

Thanks for pointing that out and I was actually watching that at the time with the intention of putting on a long at 1608.75 if it printed below it weakly but got distracted by something and missed the boat. Will definitely look for that in the future. How do you work that trade, go in blind at the exact low or pay up if no fill or kind of wait for reaction first then get in higher?

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  #339 (permalink)
 garyboy275 
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I just put in an order and wait for fill-its important to get the fill whether its one tic or two tics above it doesnt matter as long as you stick with stop. Aim for the prior high I think yesterdays was 11.50 before the pullback so even if you filled anywhere below 09 or at 09 with a 1.25 stop your reward would be at least 2.50. Tighter the trade more your reward but its kinda fine balance between tight trade and not missing out. This is when watching the tape comes in handy

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  #340 (permalink)
 garyboy275 
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Heres the video of it-cool feature to have to IRT. I marked the levels ahead of time-had a hard time creating the video. ITs running at 2000x. The sooner you mark your levels I think bigger your edge.

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  #341 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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ON Profile: So I haven't figured out how to scale SC properly yet but based off MP looks like the session was very balanced and calm with only 4 pts range. The hi is just a few ticks above the nvpoc and the low went just a few ticks into the afternoon pullback. Volume is VERY light at just over 70k. ON vpoc sitting at 1609. Distinct LVN at 1608.5 but again this volume is pathetic.



Friday was a big and clean breakout from prior balance. Friday left a very poor hi behind and a very strong invisible selling tail in the form of a gap from 1605.5 to 1594.25. There is no data scheduled for today nor the whole week really and we are set for an OAIR below value start. My first guess would be to expect responsive buyers to push for a move back into value and if successful to clean up the poor hi. However, if sellers grab hold and start eating into friday's buying tail then who knows where it could go with no support until 1594. But I don't expect an aggressive seller and anticipate a rotational day. All time frames are trending higher so I would like for a nice bottom to be formed early on and then be able to hop on for a ride to new hi's.

Levels Above: 1610.75 nvpoc/ONHI, 1614.25 all time hi

Levels Below: 1605.5 pLo, 1600?, 1594.25 pBAH, 1592.25 nvpoc, 1588.5 MP single

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR below value, responsive buyers push weakly but fail near ONHI then sellers step in and auction to near pLo but fail and bulls grind higher to close the day.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and buyers push but fail near ONHI then sellers step in and auction lower through the day.

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1. Sold 1614.25 pHi/2nd vwap on 4.5 pt move after only 2 ticking pHi. Very slow grind higher but we have a very poor low below and I expected rotational day so we will see. Scratched after 52 min and 1.0 MA vs .25 MF as a very poor hi has formed with a triple top and over 50k at top 3 prices. Would have been winner.




Recap
ES opened OAIR and basically just drifted upward ever so slightly through the day. Value and vpoc shifted slightly higher. Price closed incrementally higher on VERY poor volume (less than 900k). A poor hi and poor low were left behind. Basically there were very few motivated participants involved today.

I missed the open and I am not sure I missed much based on what I did see. I thought for sure when I scratched my short the market would go up and make new hi's but it didn't. Question is, was I right to scratch or should I have continued to hold? Or rather, should I have even put the trade on in the first place???

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 myosys 
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Question is, was I right to scratch or should I have continued to hold? Or rather, should I have even put the trade on in the first place???

Your rationale for the trade was fine. Personally, at the time of your trade, I doubt there would be much of any range extension given the ON action / profile, as well as the development of the first few hours . Given the magnet at 1613, as well as the magnetic qualities of VWAP, that should have kept you in that short longer, at least to cover the commission

Typical of a monster move yesterday, and a bell shaped ON session, was a real snoozer of a RTH session.

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  #344 (permalink)
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ON profile: Ok so SC is not getting the job done so far with these volume profile graphs, I need to figure this out. But we have new all time hi's in the ON session and the market is currently on it at 1616.5. Profile shape, based on TPOs is kind of b shaped with a poor hi. Volume is light at 150k but significantly more than yesterday. Vpoc sitting at 1615.75, near the top.



Yesterday left a very poor hi and low. The ON session has repaired the poor hi and made the poor low worse. As we are currently trading at hi's, above pHI and at new all time hi's and set for an OAOR open, the bulls are in charge. I would expect responsive sellers to make the first push, perhaps to previous VAH 1614.25 or nvpoc 1613 and then bulls grind it higher. If buyers make a push above the ONHI and fail then shorts have the ball targeting the poor low from yesterday at 1609.25 and the breakout low 1605.5. All time frames are trending higher.

Levels Above: 1617 ONHI

Levels Below: 1615.25 pHi, 1613 nvpoc, 1605.5 BAL*, 1600?, 1594 pBAH**

Hypo#1: ES opens OAOR and responsive sellers push back into pRange to pick up buyers around 1613 then auction higher thru the day.

Hypo#2: ES opens OAOR and pushes above ONHI but fails and then is accepted back into pRange targeting other side of balance at 1608 and possibly lower.

Hypo#3: ES opens OD higher, go with!

TO ALL SIERRA CHART USERS: Is there a setting I have wrong that is causing my volume profiles to be so distorted?

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 josh 
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TO ALL SIERRA CHART USERS: Is there a setting I have wrong that is causing my volume profiles to be so distorted?

In what way is it distorted?

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In what way is it distorted?

You think it looks right? Compared to IRT I just dont think its making the volume bars the right lengths, relative to others. Maybe this is just pure math whereas IRT was using some sort of smoothing formula to make it look nicer, I dont know.

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 josh 
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You think it looks right? Compared to IRT I just dont think its making the volume bars the right lengths, relative to others. Maybe this is just pure math whereas IRT was using some sort of smoothing formula to make it look nicer, I dont know.

If you post a comparison side-by-side, we can have a look, but the profiles are 100% accurate in SC.

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If you post a comparison side-by-side, we can have a look, but the profiles are 100% accurate in SC.




I dont have an IRT license anymore but i think the photo above displays something is wack. I believe SC's data is 100% accurate, I think their scaling system is out of wack. Todays day session looks pretty good but that ON session is just ugly by itself and even more so when compared to RTH right next to it. Seems that with low volume their scaling method falls apart. Does yours look different than mine?

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 josh 
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If you are referring to the fact that it's wider -- there are more bars. Look at your profile settings. "Maximum volume bar width type" and percentage.

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If you are referring to the fact that it's wider -- there are more bars. Look at your profile settings. "Maximum volume bar width type" and percentage.

thanks josh, that fixed it and it makes sense now how SC is doing this.

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1. Long 1613 nvpoc on 6.5 pt move down off the hi. Sellers in control, kind of stepping in front of a bus. So we opened above pHi, made new all time hi's then sellers stepped in pretty aggressively and knocked back into pRange and now nvpoc. Instantly 5 ticks against me but not 4 ticks in favor. Scaled after 6 mins. Second scale given.

2. Short 1615.75 vwap/pHi/mid on 4 pt move up off lows. As of now it looks like market is trying to break back above pHi and hold but given the confluence of things here I decided to try the short. Stopped after 26 min and .5 MF.

3. Sold 1620.75 2nd vwap on 5 pt move. Scratched after 10 min and .75 MA vs .25 MF. Will try to re-short above at 1623.25 1.5 IB as I need something else to lean on besides 2nd vwap to short at all time hi's. Could have stayed in this trade for the rest of the day without a scale or stop...




Recap
ES opened OAOR with an upside gap and after making new all time's sellers stepped attempted it to push it back into pRange and were successful but only momentarily as buyers jumped in somewhat aggressively near the nvpoc and pVAL and quickly auctioned it back above pHi and to grinded it higher thru the day. Value and vpoc shifted higher again. Price closed near the hi and above value. Volume once again poor-ish at just about 1.3 mill. Today left a very poor hi. Market keeps working its way higher with no sign of aggressive sellers...

Another day, another scratch. First trade was hard to take as sellers were really wacking it. Again, it reinforces my desire to take trades from CHVNs as opposed to CLVNs. Second trade...again, strong bounce off lows and based on past experience I would not have taken it if it was just the mid but it had confluence with pHi and vwap and context of being rejected from above pHi already I thought it would hold but it didn't. Third trade was desperation for a trade to be honest. I had a few other trades that I missed out on I marked on the chart.

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 josh 
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I know people have different opinions about this, but whatever your reason for wanting to buy 1615, was it strong enough to just go to market and buy? Missing a fill by a tick has always frustrated me. By 3 or more ticks, and I don't consider it close enough, but if I miss a fill by 1 or 2 ticks then that is frustrating to me. So, I started just buying, if my belief in the trade is strong enough, if it looks like I've missed the entry. Said another way, if 1615 is a strong buy, is 1615.25 at least good enough to get in and lose 2 or 3 ticks on the entry?

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 garyboy275 
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josh View Post
I know people have different opinions about this, but whatever your reason for wanting to buy 1615, was it strong enough to just go to market and buy? Missing a fill by a tick has always frustrated me. By 3 or more ticks, and I don't consider it close enough, but if I miss a fill by 1 or 2 ticks then that is frustrating to me. So, I started just buying, if my belief in the trade is strong enough, if it looks like I've missed the entry. Said another way, if 1615 is a strong buy, is 1615.25 at least good enough to get in and lose 2 or 3 ticks on the entry?

Other thing is if you get a fill chances are it's got more of a chance to go thru your price. BTW the low iirc was 1615.25 before that I am not sure though. (when it based before hitting 1618 coming off the lows) 15.25 was also the previous day close

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I know people have different opinions about this, but whatever your reason for wanting to buy 1615, was it strong enough to just go to market and buy? Missing a fill by a tick has always frustrated me. By 3 or more ticks, and I don't consider it close enough, but if I miss a fill by 1 or 2 ticks then that is frustrating to me. So, I started just buying, if my belief in the trade is strong enough, if it looks like I've missed the entry. Said another way, if 1615 is a strong buy, is 1615.25 at least good enough to get in and lose 2 or 3 ticks on the entry?

problem for me is determining if something is a strong buy, which I am not good at. but i agree, this is something i will have to do.

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ON profile: We have a pretty balanced profile so far on light volume (113k). Yesterday's very poor hi was 1 ticked and the low is at 1518 which doesn't really stand out to me for any reason. Vpoc sitting at 1620.25. So the market has held on to yesterdays gains and nothing seems to have changed as market awaits new information.



Yesterday sold off down to the 1513 MC vpoc level and bounced and closed leaving a very poor hi behind. The ON session only 1 ticked it making me suspect the market is just a little too long at the moment and might require a little sell off to shake out weak longs and then take out the poor hi. Perhaps another sell off down to 1613 is in order today first before taking out the poor hi. Or not, ha. Alternatively, if market cleans up the poor hi early on but then dips back below it sellers will have a small wind at their back down to 1613 and perhaps lower. All timeframes are positive so bias is to the upside.

Levels Above: 1621.75 pHi

Levels Below: 1617.5 HVN, 1613 mc vpoc*, 1609.25 poor low from 5-6, 1605.5 BAL

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR and pushes higher but fails at pHi then sells off to 1613 to pick up buyers and grinds higher into the close.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR inside value and pushes above pHi but finds nothing then sellers auction lower thru the day.

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1. Long 1626.25 dVPOC/1st vwap on 1.25 pt pb off hi. We have a very poor hi in place with a triple top and over 80k traded at top 3 ticks so I was looking for a long and the last pullback didn't make it to the IBHI so I went aggressive here. Day has been very strong overall but rotational for the last few hours. LVN 2 ticks below might provide support. Stopped after 52 min and .5 MF...

2. Long 1623.75 dVAL/vwap on 3.75 pt pb. So I re-bot shortly after getting stopped. IBHI is 2 ticks above along with an LVN so I would have gotten long there had I not bot at vpoc. Scaled after 33 min and 1.25 MA as it stopped 1 tick short of B period low and reversed. Second scale given. And now it makes new hi's...




Recap
ES opened OAIR and chopped around a bit at the open before taking out pHi and never looking back before meeting resistance at 1.5 IBHI and then rotating. An afternoon dip was then bot and rallied back into the close. Value and vpoc once again moved higher. Price closed at the hi and above value. Volume was normal at about 1.4 mill. ES strong like bull.

I missed the first half hour or so but I don't think it matters as I don't think there was a trade (that I would have done). Once it became clear up was the way I tried getting long a few times but was not aggressive enough. I'm fine with the two trades I did take although the afternoon pullback went further then I expected. ES is now up 40 pts since non-farms on Friday and has made no attempt at filling the gap yet. Sure seems frothy up here and I would love to get on some sort of reversal in the next few days but who knows when or from where it will happen. Another scratch day...

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 josh 
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problem for me is determining if something is a strong buy, which I am not good at. but i agree, this is something i will have to do.

Well, if 22 was good enough to buy today, why not 22.25? And if 24.25 was good enough to put your order in, why not 24.50? I know we can extend this and at some point it becomes unreasonable, but we're talking about 1 tick. You were already willing to buy relatively high. So why not 1 tick higher? The question is, "do I want to be long?" And the answer to that question should not be determined by 1 or 2 ticks. That's my point. I see today for example you were looking to buy the LVN, which you always are doing. But look at 24.50; it had held earlier quite a few times, and had almost as little volume as 24.25. If you really want to get in, 24.50 is cutting it close as it is. This is a pretty strong drive up, and you cannot be as picky about your prices. The fact that you can't get in is all the more evidence that you SHOULD be in, and 1 tick shouldn't matter. I know there are many different types of professional traders, but I would strongly bet that the VAST majority do not have the attitude of "oh well, it missed my fill by a tick, I'll just watch it go 30 ticks without me." If they want to be long, they will get long, if they see that there is a good chance they will not get a fill at the price they want. Not based on anything objective, but it's not rational to not get on a bus because it pulled 50 feet from the bus stop instead of all the way to the bus stop, and then sit doing nothing 2 miles from your destination where the bus is headed.

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 syxforex 
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Buses rarely exhibit liquidity vacuums..

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Economic data: claims

ON profile: Kind of a b-shaped profile last night. Yesterday's squeeze into the close continued after hours but sellers have since found their footing and ES is now back inside pRange and trading nears lows right around yesterdays vpoc. Only a 5.5 pt range so far and volume is light/average at 140k.



ES has just been rallying like crazy since non-farms and you can't help but feel this is getting extended. Overnight we have a peak above pHi that enticed responsive sellers to get involved and we now have a projected open near the globex low. Might we have our first red day in a week? I am anticipating an OAIR inside value open and will be looking towards the nvpoc at 1626.5/ LVN/VAH at 1627.5 as a potential resistance on the day. Acceptance above that targets pHi and above. To the downside is a thin area until a ledge at 1621 which is our mc vpoc for the week so that might be a decent bounce spot. If buyers can't hold there then we are looking down to the 1613 mc vpoc since the breakout.

Levels Above: 1626.5 nvpov, 1627.5 LVN, 1629.5 pHi

Levels Below: 1621 CHVN*, 1618.5 pLo, 1615 LVN, 1613 mc vpoc**

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR and pushes lower down to 1621 CHVN to pick up buyers then grinds higher into the close.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and is rejected from 1626.5/27.5 and sellers finally step in and grind lower all day.

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 josh 
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Buses rarely exhibit liquidity vacuums..

What's your point? That a bus does not "pull back"? I agree, but neither does a market when it has the notion to move. The spirit of my point is this: 1 tick should not make the difference in the entry price when going for 8, 9, 20, 30 ticks on a trade. The "wait for your entry at all costs" mentality is illogical, when considered in the context of risk/reward. Risking 1 or 2 more ticks on the entry when the plan is to capture significantly more, is like watching a market go 20 ticks in your favor, stop 1 tick shy of your target, and let it come all the way back to breakeven. It serves no purpose.

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1. Long 1628.5 as it appears to be rejecting yesterdays value area and 1 ticked the OSLO only after second attempt. It has only printed pHi very weakly as well and failed a tick short on second attempt which is a negative. Scratched after 6 min and 1.5 MF vs .75 MA as it took out pHi by 2 ticks and printed 756 at my entry but then re-treated so thinking possible failure above pHi. Will look to get short. Would have been stopped.

2. Long 1628.5 again...sellers just not gaining any traction in prior value area so I went long. Stopped after 13 min and 1.25 MF.

3. Short 1626.25 1st dVWAP/prior vpoc on 2.5 pt move off lows which looks poor with almost 4k printed there. Working on premise that 2 tick of pHi is todays final HOD and market to move lower end of yesterdays range. Scaled after 21 min and .5 MA. No second scale. Max winner 1.75 pts.

4. Long 1630 IBHI on 2.25 pt pb. It printed the 1529.5 pHi 389 times then popped up so I took the long. Overall trend is in my favor but what works against me is that it popped above the ONHI then came back below it. Stopped after 24 minutes and 1.0 MF.

5. Long 1621 CHVN on massive 10 pt move down. Stepped in front of a bus on this one. Instantly 4 ticks against me. Buyers sweeping book up now. Scale given after 2 min. Second scale given. Max winner 5.25 pts.




Recap
Wild day today. ES opened OAIR above value and after some chop and 2 ticking pHi a sell off was in order. After bouncing from pVAL and making new hi's, responsive sellers stepped in and wacked it, really gaining momentum once it was re-accepted into pRange. New lows were made, a bounce, a sell off and then a last minute rip into the close to bring it back inside value. When all is said and done, VA has shifted overlapping higher. Vpoc is the same as yesterday. Price closed lower but inside value on above average volume. The daily candles are still one time framing higher. Bull market still in effect. However, today did leave behind a poor low and maybe that will be the path to a real sell off.

I think I was fishing for a trade with those first two longs at 1628.5. Third trade I was surprised that I only got 1 scale out of and the market went back up to new highs. I really wanted to get short up there but it didn't go hi enough for me to want to short it because we had such a small IB and only 8 pts of range up to that point. Was my long at the IBHI stupid? They tried to hold it a bit but whether that news mattered or not they sure slammed it after. The long at 1621 was sweet. I was hoping that the market had sold off to there early on in the morning and it was what I was targeting with my third trade. I have scratched every day this week so far...

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Economic data: bernanke speech

ON Profile: ES traded back and forth last night in a 7 pt range with the low being yVAL (on TPO chart) and the hi being 1631 which was also yesterdays globex hi. Profile shape is roughly balanced but with more volume having traded near the lower end of the range. Vpoc sitting at 1626.25 which has been the vpoc for the last 2 RTH days in a row so definitely value agreement there.



Yesterday was a wild day and I am not sure what to make of it. Last night had a swift rejection from 1631 and a lot of lingering near the lower end of the range. Yesterday had two strong buying responses from the 1621 CHVN area but left a poor hi behind. Daily candles are still one time framing higher. We are set to open OAIR inside value near the most traded price since the NFP break higher, 1626.5 so I am thinking we are headed for a choppy open. Im not quite sure how to tackle this one except wait for clues from the globex low and see if it is accepted lower then 1620 pLo is the target and possibly lower to 1613 CHVN. If they find nothing below the ONLO then the other side of balance is pHi 1632.25. ANother wildly rotational day is possible. All time frames are still trending higher.

Levels Above: 1626.5 mc vpoc, 1627.5 LVN, 1632.25 pHi

Levels Below: 1621 CHVN, 1620 pLo*, 1617.5 HVN, 1613 CHVN**, 1608 pb low

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR and chops, explores lower to take out pLo but finds willing buyers then grinds higher before closing in middle of range.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and pushes higher but fails near 1627.5 and explores lower down to 1613 for a close on lows.

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 josh 
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Yesterday had two strong buying responses from the 1621 CHVN area but left a poor hi behind. Daily candles are still one time framing higher.

Do you mean "poor low" here? I try not to get too hung up on this idea of poor highs and lows, but in the right context it is very powerful, and I agree with you that yesterday's low does not really qualify as an auction that has found the last seller and is unfinished. If the selloff was indeed news/rumor related regarding QE and it turns out that this was simply a non-event, the the market should have responded straight back up the way it did on the late April twitter crash. But instead, it retested the low, and so far for the last few hours we are trading under the day's VWAP. My guess is that this low will not stand, even if only by a tick. Also, the vwap since the gap up from last Friday is 1619, and the -1 SD lines up well with the 1613 you mention. Could be a good downside target. But as you mention, we are one-timeframing higher. 2 out of the last 16 days have breached the prior day's low, so from that angle, it is dangerous to get too excited about a short scenario, but today is the best chance for it this month IMO. Given that 26.25/26.50 are the control prices for the last 2 days, and also 26.25 is the control price overnight, this could be used to give a directional bias, and if it looks like sellers are in control based on that, the 20 and possibly 13 are great downside targets. Good luck and good trading today buddy.

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  #364 (permalink)
 Profiler 
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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1. Long 1628 on 1.25 pt pb after ES ran up to VAH and pulled back but printed the 1627.75 LVN very weakly. This trade does not make sense, going to try and scratch. Scratched after 2 min and .5 MF vs 1.25 MA. Reason I scratched is because ES has done nothing but rotate from yVAL to VAH and my stop is at 1626.5 which is the mc vpoc and a magnet. Would have been stopped.

2. Long 1622.5 but I dont know why...It was just below the dVAL at the time I entered my order awhile ago and had some other confluence but now I don't see it. Scratched after 2 min and .5 MA vs .5 MF. Would have been a loser.




Recap
ES opened OAIR inside value and chopped around before making a move lower to pLo then grinding higher into the close. Vpoc once again at 1626 so in three days it has moved in a 2 tick range. Value actually was slightly overlapping lower today. Price however closed up and on the highs and outside value on average volume of about 1.4 mill. Daily candle is still one time framing higher but today was an inside day. Next week is chock full of economic data so perhaps it makes sense the market consolidated today awaiting further info.

Really frustrating day for me as I just couldn't figure out what the market was trying to do. I wanted another long around 1621 but I also wanted to see what was beneath 1620 first and they didn't give it to me. I was really looking hard at 1620.75 long as it seemed to be struggling down there but I didn't pull the trigger. How could it stop a tick short of yesterdays double bottom?!? Thats the market. I shut it down after missing that bounce because I didn't know what other trade to do and didn't want to risk a loser into the weekend. So 5 days of trading this week and 5 scratches its time to forget about the market for awhile...

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  #365 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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ES closed the week at an all time closing hi and just a few handles off the all time hi. We have all time frames trending higher, additionally the daily candles are still one time framing higher. The chart above shows the action since the non-farms breakout and its pretty clear to see that buyers and sellers agree on 1626.5 as the fairest price. A break of 1621 would seem to have little in the way of resistance until 1613 HVN which in my opinion would represent a great buying opportunity as it has confluence with the VAL. After that the next line in the sand is 1608 and below that it gets slippery. To the upside, well I don't have much to say as its uncharted territory. Up is the way until its not.

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  #366 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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Economic data: retail sales, biz inventories

ON Profile: We have a very balanced looking profile so far that is centered in the lower portion of pRange. For the most part it has stayed within the pVA. Range is narrow at 5.5 pts and volume is light at 158k. Vpoc sitting at 1624.25.



Retail sales has just come out and ES likes it and is now on hi's. We are set for an OAIR auction right around pVAH and within spitting distance of 1626.5 mc vpoc so I am expecting a choppy open. Despite the initial weakness to the overnight session, I think the bulls still have the ball today as the current ONHI looks weak. Im not really sure what to say about today except nothing seems to have changed so look to buy the VAL and sell the VAH initially. All time frames are trending higher. A break below 1620.25 ends the one time framing higher on the daily candles and is significant IMO and targets 1613. Anticipating rotational day.

Levels Above: 1630.5 pHi/mcVAH*, 1632.25 all time hi

Levels Below: 1626.5 mc vpoc, 1621 CHVN**, 1617 HVN, 1613 mcVAL/CHVN**

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR above value and responsive sellers push down to 1621 area again and fail, buyers grind into close.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR above value and buyers fail at ONHI and sellers push lower all day to 1613.

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  #367 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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1. Sold 1629.25 2nd vwap on 2.5 pt move after naked close was tagged weakly. 1629.5 HVN from friday very prominent so possible reaction off it. Very rotational day so far. Scaled after 23 min and .5 MA. Filled in top 249 in queue after joining with over 1500 displayed (what a joke!). Second scale given with stop at original. Max winner 2.5 pts.

2. Sold 1630 after pHi tagged and decent selling response ensued after 4 pt move up. 2nd vwap at hi tick as well for possible resistance. Stopped after 9 min and .25 MF.

3. Long 1630 MP intraday single on 2.75 pt pb. Potential contextual problem here as ES made new all time hi's then back into pRange. This trade is near identical to trade I did on Thursday (which didnt work). Stopped after 22 min and 0 MF.




Recap
ES opened OAIR right at the top of value from friday and made a move lower down to pVAL and grinded higher to new all time highs before stalling at 1.5X IB and rotating the rest of the day in the upper half of the profile. Value pushed completely higher and for the first time in 3 days we have a vpoc without 1626 as the handle. Price closed basically unch on very weak volume of about 1.0 mill.

5 day scratch streak is snapped. Once again a couple good trades passed me by because I don't know when to pay up. I didn't see a whole lot of opportunity today, maybe others did but if you missed the boat on the morning long there were only a few scraps left.

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  #368 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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Economic data: import/export

ON Profile: 8 pt range, double distribution profile so far on 200k volume. Yesterday's all time hi has been exceeded by a point. The low is the mc vpoc at 1626.5 to the tick. Vpoc is sitting at 1628 but I suspect it will shift up to 1632.25 before the open.



ES has rotated in a ~12 range for 4 days now and building up some good energy for a move away. I dont know if today will be the break but with each passing day of balance the likelihood increases. We have a potential OAOR on tap but most likely I think it will be OAIR inside value. The ON profile has a distinct LVN at 1629.5 confluent with yVPOC at 1629 so I think that could possibly serve as a launch pad for a break higher today. Yesterday's low was right at the previous VAL and if they do the same thing today that would be 1627.75 so within stopping distance for a 1629 long. We will see. People say an all time hi made in ON session doesn't hold so if thats true all the more reason to look long today. All time frames are trending higher. The daily candles are still one time framing higher and a dip below 1623.25 will break that. If that happens, what does that mean? Will late longs start heading for the exit? Not sure, will be interesting to see.

Levels Above: 1633.25 all time hi

Levels Below: 1629 nvpoc, 1623.25 pLo**, 1621 CHVN*, 1613 CHVN/ mc VAL***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR inside value and sells off to 1429/7 area to pick up buyers who then auction it aggressively higher thru the day.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and pushes higher thru ONHI and fails inviting aggresive sellers to step in and wack it.

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  #369 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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1. Sold 1634.25 ONHI/2nd vwap. Possible open drive. Stopped after 2 min. Yep OD.

2. Long 1636 vpoc on 1 pt pb. Really wanted to wait for vwap at 1635 but this market seems so strong. Scaled after 2 min and .25 MA. Second scale given. Max winner 12.75 pts.




Recap
ES opened OD right at the top of pVAH and never looked back until the 1.5 IB was hit and it rotated for a few hours before rallying into the close and making new highs again. Strong, clean break above balance. Vpoc and value shifted much higher. Price closed near the hi and above value with heavy volume at around 1.7 mill. Overall very strong day and still no sellers to be found.

I probably should not have taken that first trade given the OD above all time hi's after 4 days of balance. Funny how as strong as all the contextual clues the market was giving off, I'm looking at the DOM and saying "this doesn't look that strong, is this a real OD?". Maybe I shouldn't even watch the DOM anymore and just look at the chart? Second trade was great and with multiple lots on could really have produced some big runners. Rest of the day was just a whole lot of frustration. So I made no money today but I think there were some positives. I got on the trend after the first loss. I didnt fade all the way up and the level I chose to fade was a good one but I didn't get filled. My pre-market analysis indicated I could tell a big move was coming. Focus on the positive, learn from the negatives...

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  #370 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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Economic data: PPI, empire, housing

ON Profile: Very balanced profile last night and tight 4.5 pt range on average volume of 186k. The hi stopped a tick short of pHi and the low is just a few ticks below yesterdays vpoc. ON vpoc in the middle at 1646.75.



Yesterday we had a clean, strong breakout from a 4 day balance area. You would think after a strong trend day the market would rest and be rotational but just to keep minds open I am reminded of september 13th which was a strong trend day up after 4 days of balance that was followed up by another open drive higher. The market eventually stalled that day and closed flat but the explosion out of the gate caught many off guard. So the ON session held on to all of the gains and held above yesterdays vpoc so bulls are still in control. I anticipate an OAIR inside value and think sellers will make the first push lower but it will be weak and then bulls step in and grind it higher thru the day until some late day profit taking. If somehow the bears are able to sink their teeth into the market today, I think they will have difficulty around the 1640 level and then I really expect a strong bounce from the 1633 pBAH level on first touch. If that level fails then we have a potentially significant breakout failure. Economic data out today could be important but i don't think so. All timeframes are incredibly bullish.


Levels Above: 1648.75 pHi

Levels Below: 1644.75 nvpoc, 1640.75 LVN*, 1638.5 MP single, 1633.25 pBAH***, 1629 nvpoc, 1626.5 mv cpoc***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR inside value and pushes lower to 1640 area to pick up buyers that grind it higher thru the day until profit taking at the close.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and pushes higher but fails above pHi then rotates to other side of balance at 1640 to pick up buyers.

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  #371 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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1. Sold 1651 on 5 pt move after spike above 1650 caused decent selling response. ES is above 2nd vwap and 1.5 IBHI (albeit tiny IB). Stopped after 11 min and .25 MF. Bad trade.

2. Short 1649.5 after hoping for a 1651.75 vwap fill and chasing it down all the way. Unreal, stopped after 2 min and 0 MF. What a horrible decision. Well even my vwap short would have lost.




Recap
ES opened OAIR and chopped for the first hour or so before breaking decisively higher only to fall apart but regain its footing at the breakout level in a volatile day. Vpoc and value once again shift higher. Price closed higher and inside value right around vpoc on heavier volume than yesterday at nearly 1.8 mill. Another positive day, this market is seemingly going parabolic.

My trading was horrible today. I was gone for the majority of the day actually and based on the chart it seems like that have been a good thing. As far as the market is concerned, it seemed that it finally reached a price where aggressive sellers were willing to step in but the late day rally erased most of their progress as buyers stepped in at the VAL. I cant believe how strong this market is...

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  #372 (permalink)
 COTtrader 
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@Profiler
Interesting look at the ES today. I looked at your first trade not long after the ES caught fire. Doesn't always work out so pretty as the chart shows, but even on negative volume 5 min candles, the market refused to drop even 1 tick on the next bar. Amazing strength.

Ken


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  #373 (permalink)
 Profiler 
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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Economic data: claims, cpi, housing, philly

ON Profile: ES traded in a 6.75 pt range last night, totally within yesterdays value area and mostly below yesterdays vpoc. Volume is average at around 170k. ON vpoc sitting at 1652.75.



ES had kind of a wild day yesterday but still managed to establish higher value. This market just won't quit going up! Overnight the ES put in a balanced session that featured a strong bounce from the 1650 ~pVAL area. We are set to open right around the nvpoc and yesterdays action did the same thing and sellers were just totally unable to auction much below it. A difference between yesterday and today is that today's ON session auctioned almost entirely below the pVPOC but yesterdays stayed above it almost entirely. Maybe a subtle clue, maybe nothing. 730 numbers are out and a nearly 6 handle sell off has resulted. Might today finally be a down day? All timeframes are still incredibly bullish so I think the first thought has to be to lean long still. However, a break below 1648 and acceptance below would give bears the slightest of upper hands I think.


Levels Above: 1655 vpoc, 1659.75 pHi

Levels Below: 1648.5 LVN/5-14 Hi**, 1645 CHVN, 1640.25 LVN**, 1638.5 MP single, 1633.25 pBAH***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR inside value and pushes lower to 1548 level to pick up buyers then grinds higher the rest of the day until sellers emerge at close.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR inside value and pushes higher to nvpoc 1655 then grinds lower thru the day finally giving bears a victory.

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  #374 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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1. Short 1657.75 pVAH/LVN on 3.25 pt move. Philly fed coming out in a few minutes but I will leave this on as it had a strong reaction from here this morning and its only a 1 lot. Overall context is a lack of selling as it opened in value and only 2 ticked below the open before moving higher, albeit weakly and not with much conviction. Scaled after 3 min and 0MA. Second scale given. Max theo winner 7 pts.

2. Long 1656.25 1st vwap on 2.5 pt pb from double top. This is second pullback to this area so don't like that and have had only 3 ticks of range extension above the IB but there is a double top and bias is long. Scratched after 3 min... its been a rotational day with a balanced profile so I just cant justify a long above vpoc. Would have been a loser.

3. Long 1648 ledge from yesterday on 2.5 pt pb late in the day. Instantly 5 ticks against me but now 3 in favor. Stopped after 12 min and 1.25 MF. Stopped 2 ticks off the low, dangit!




Recap
ES opened OAIR and chopped around inside yesterdays value area and building a very prominent vpoc before a late day break took the ES down to yesterdays HVN at 1646.5 where it bounced a bit into the close. Vpoc did not shift while value area shifted ever so slightly upward. Price closed near the lows and below value which is definitely noteworthy as that has not happened in awhile. Volume once again above average at around 1.6 mill. Over the last 3 days we have concensus that 1655.25 is the fairest price followed by a murky area of undetermined value between 1644 and 1647 then a vacumm down to 1633 where volume builds again reaching its peak at 1626.25.

I had a great first trade today, with size that trade will pay for some losers. Second trade made no sense and I am glad I could scratch it quickly. Third trade... I dont know, maybe I should have treated yesterdays pullback to 1648.5 as first test and this as second and waited until 1646.5 HVN to get long but I thought the ledge at 1648 would provide good support. Maybe I just got unlucky as it happened late in the day. Not sure. Either way, that missed trade at 1653.5 really bothers me because I was honestly going to hold it until 1648. Another couple trades under the belt at no cost to the account I guess.

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  #375 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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Economic data: michigan, LEI

ON Profile: ES traded in a 6 pt range and a generally balanced profile shape. The hi is currently just below yesterdays very prominent vpoc and the low is 1 tick below yesterdays settlement. Vpoc sitting near the hi just a tick above yesterdays VAL. Volume is light so far at 130k.



Yesterday's down day did little to give the bears the upper hand as value was established higher and vpoc did not migrate lower along with price. Indeed, after the bell sellers seemed to vanish and ES made no further effort at going lower and is currently trading back inside yesterdays VA. Maybe bears will re-appear at the open but benefit of the doubt has to be given to the bulls still. I anticipate an OAIR inside value open with a choppy open ahead of the data. I think a rotational day is in store with bears making first push lower to the VAL or 1650 to pick up buyers and then grind higher.

Levels Above: 1655.25 nvpoc, 1659.75 all time hi

Levels Below: 1650 ledge, 1646.5 CHVN, 1640.25 ledge, 1638.5 MP single, 1633.25 pBAH

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR inside value and chops, pushes lower to 1650 then rotates higher and sells off into the close.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and pushes higher to VAH/pHi and finds rejections then rotates down to 1640.

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  #376 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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1. Long 1652.75 pVAL on 3.75 pt move down after OAIR and initial push higher and overall bullish bias based on overnight action. Scaled after 7 min and .25 MA. Second scale given. Max winner 6 pts.

2. Long 1657.5 dVPOC/1st vwap on 1.5 pt move down from double top hi. The hi is very poor but also at a known place of rejection and I am taking a long from an aggressive location so who knows about this. Sellers came in pretty aggressive on this move down. 12 minutes in this thing has printed 40k at 1658.5 but not a single at 1659, super frustrating. Stopped after 28 minutes for 10 8 tick loser. I really cant believe this trade didnt work.

3. Sold 1662.25 1.5 IBHI on 6.25 pt move up. Maybe this is stupid to sell 1.5 IB on breakout to new hi's but day was very rotational with a huge vpoc below. Scratched after 11 min and 1.5 MA. Would have been a loser.




Recap
ES opened OAIR right around yesterdays prominent vpoc and moved higher initially before pulling back to yesterday's VAL and taking out pHi. A few hours of chop and a pullback led to a powerful afternoon breakout and a close at new all time hi's. Vpoc only shifted up a few ticks and was once again very prominent while value shifted overlapping higher. Price closed near the hi and above value on higher than average volume of about 1.6 mill. Amazingly the daily candles continue to one time frame higher. ES strong like bull.

I think 2 out of 3 trades I made today were solid. First one worked like a champ, second one almost worked, looks like the market just got too long up there and needed to force some people out first. Maybe my entry was too aggressive and I should have waited? The hi was so poor, I don't know. Third trade was not smart for one thing as the IB was small at only 6.5 pts so 1.5 IB would 9.75 pts and average daily range is 12-13 I think right? Had I waited for the double IB that would have worked with minimal heat but given the time of day it was dicey. I wish I had gotten long again around 1655 but I just didn't see the edge there. After my first trade and then having my 2nd trade go 5 ticks in favor I really thought today would be a good day for me and I would make up my weeks' losses but instead I finish down 2 ticks. Don't care about the money but the psychological aspect would have been nice.

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  #377 (permalink)
 josh 
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I too was surprised that 55 didn't hold better, and even more surprised when 54.25 didn't hold. That was tricky to say the least. Markets are very good at fooling people; how many shorts at that moment thought they were about to get seriously paid? And at 1pm ET, when it looks like it might just roll over... all that volume traded, positions taken in the 55s/56s, and then excitement turns into fear and anger, as they squeeze the hell out of them. Always fascinating to me how markets work.

At least you scratched the short at 62. But when ES breaks out of a 2 day balance to the upside, the 1.5x IB is even less important than it normally is. I don't put much importance on the IB, but with no other reference I think the 2x IB was reasonable (before the open I said 65 was a potential long target, but that was because 65 is just 5 points higher than the prior high, and it's as good a method to project as any!), and it turns out the 2x IB was the HOD, but IMO that's a crap shoot and not something to put much weight in unless you have done some statistical research and have confidence in something you find that indicates that it is important. I did scalp a short but IMO this has to be based solidly on a tape/order flow read, and not an arbitrary 1.5x level. Still, a long pretty much anywhere in that move up was a better play than a short. It's hard to take if you're flat but just look where the strength was and where the path of least resistance was.

You said the day was rotational as a basis for the short, but look at the bigger picture break out of balance. Also, the "trend" if you will call it that was solidly up since the globex open on Thursday. VWAP stayed pretty upward the whole time (look at ETH VWAP, not RTH here), and stayed above the -1SD the entire day, whereas it traded quite heavily above +1SD before the open, after the news, and was well above +2SD when you shorted.

Hope you have a good weekend buddy.

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  #378 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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I don't have a whole lot of value to add here but wanted to post a pic of the composite profile for last week. Its pretty clear the market really liked 1656. God forbid the market sell off for once but if it did I would anticipate a nice bounce off that level on first touch. If it knifes right through it then that would be a clue that perceived fair value has changed.



I think 1640 is a good area for a long but if that fails then its a straight shot to 1633 top of prior balance area with the 1626 mc vpoc looming large below. All time frames are incredibly bullish at the moment. Next week has no data out until wednesday when the bernank speaks again and maybe he starts priming the market for an end of QEi (yeah right!). I anticipate slow rotational action until then.

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  #379 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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Economic data: none

ON Profile: Extremely tight 4.25 pt range so far on very light volume of 127k. Profile shape is pretty balanced. Vpoc sitting at 1662.50. The entire session has taken place within the upper balance region formed after the breakout on friday afternoon.



As expected with no economic data on tap until the bernanks big testimony on wednesday the market did nothing overnight. At least for now, prices within the upper balance region after friday's breakout are being accepted. ES is set for an OAIR above value and I anticipate responsive sellers to make the first push and test the breakout area in an effort to get back inside prior value. There is a nice confluence of IBHI, VAH and MP single at 1659.75 so I expect buyers to respond there. However, if prices below ~1660 are accepted then 1656 is the natural first target with 1648 and 1640 after that. To the upside, friday's hi is our only reference point so a peak above followed by rejection will be our only clue for upside excess. All time frames are incredibly bullish...

Levels Above: 1665.75 pHi

Levels Below: 1659.75 MP single/pVAH**, 1656 mc vpoc*, 1652.5-1648.5 GAP, 1640.25 LVN, 1638.5 MP single

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR above value and pushes lower to 1659/1656 to pick up buyers then grinds higher thru the day.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and is accepted inside prior value then grinds around 1656 all day.

Hypo#3- ES pushes above pHi and fails then sells off down to ~1648.

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  #380 (permalink)
 indextrader7 
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I'm seeing nice improvements man. Keep up the great work!

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  #381 (permalink)
 para6ut 
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Profiler,

Great thread, really like your style and trading, and how well structured everything is, I wish I can be so consistent

Please forgive me if you have already mentioned this - have you thought about/ tried / tested some method of confirmation of reversals? For example - footprint, delta, ' trade stalking' or say volume histogram on a time based chart? Or you prefer PA type of analysis ? Did you see Peter Davies webinar on the subject, and if you did - do you think it is just information overload?

I quite liked FT71's ES rotation stats, I see you do too - do you think this is enough by itself?

And finally - how does sierra compare to i-rt in your opinion?

Thanks and all best,

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  #382 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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1. Short 1665.5 pHi on 3.25 pt move up. I missed the short here on the first time up and then got filled in first 41 contracts on second time up. Doubting whether I should have taken this trade as the OSLO was only taken out by a tick and I am only really leaning on the fact that pHi was taken out by 1 tick. Scratched after 10 min and 1.25 MA vs .75 MF. Would have been loser.

2. Long 1667.5 after no fill on 1666.5 mid/vwap. Christ, filled on 1666.5 now. Stopped on original long. Stopped on second long. Unbelievable... so I made a mistake and got double filled but I think a long was still valid.

3. Sold 1662.25 IBLO on 1.25 pt pb. Oh man, 3 ticks against me instantly. Why did I do this trade? Well I really thought 1659.75 would trade today and instead of being a responsive buyer I thought I would take a trade into it and cover there. I want to scratch this trade now. Stopped after 15 min and 0 MF. What a horrible trade. I am my own worst enemy...these are the types of trades I need to eliminate.




Recap
ES opened in the upper balance area from friday and put in a rotational neutral day. Value and vpoc once again shifted higher. Price closed about unch and inside value and below pHi on average volume of about 1.4 mill. The daily candle gives us a doji. Maybe, just maybe could this doji mark a short term top? I sure don't want to bet against this market based on a doji candle but time will tell.

What a crappy day for me. I missed the first short by 40 contracts that would have given a decent little winner then get filled on second time up which would have been a loser had they not been nice enough to give me a scratch. The second trade where I decided to pay up after not getting filled then 2 seconds later get filled on my original and stopped on first fill...that sucked. I thought that area would be good for a long but it seems I stepped into a trap or I was just plain wrong. There was so much confluence up there with IBHI, LVN, vwap, mid and good acceptance above with a poor-ish hi. Third trade just completely horrible. Here's a question: where was the first legit long of the day and why?

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  #383 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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para6ut View Post
Profiler,

Great thread, really like your style and trading, and how well structured everything is, I wish I can be so consistent

Please forgive me if you have already mentioned this - have you thought about/ tried / tested some method of confirmation of reversals? For example - footprint, delta, ' trade stalking' or say volume histogram on a time based chart? Or you prefer PA type of analysis ? Did you see Peter Davies webinar on the subject, and if you did - do you think it is just information overload?

I quite liked FT71's ES rotation stats, I see you do too - do you think this is enough by itself?

And finally - how does sierra compare to i-rt in your opinion?

Thanks and all best,

Thanks for the kind words about my blog, feel free to post questions or comments any time!

No I haven't looked into or tried testing reversal confirmations nor have I seen the webinar by peter davies.

About rotations, they are definitely NOT enough by itself. (In fact I am beginning to question whether they matter at all to be honest.) By that I mean it seems context is king. If you have a firm grasp of it and are looking to put on a trade, then having a big rotation to lay into is nice confluence. But if you have a level listed on your chart that you dont really know why is a level and you have a 6 pt move into that level without considering where the move came from and all sorts of other questions that you dont know the answers to, then over the long haul it's not going to be a winning strategy.

I am really liking sierra now after struggling at first. IRT has a lot of bells and whistles but none of that is going to turn you into a winning trader, IMO. SC gives ME everything I need (plus the footprint which IRT does not have) and at 30% the cost so its a no-brainer for ME. Some people prolly dont care about paying an extra 50 a month and getting some extra functionality. Its up to you but if you are asking me if I recommend it I most certainly do!

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  #384 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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indextrader7 View Post
I'm seeing nice improvements man. Keep up the great work!

thanks man! i wish my pnl reflected that progress!

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  #385 (permalink)
 trendisyourfriend 
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Profiler View Post
...Here's a question: where was the first legit long of the day and why?

I would say, the most conservative long entry was at the daily RTH open at 1662.75. I always make the one minute opening range very prominent on my chart as it is an area which does not demand any research and is quite obvious to identify every day. The day is always judged by how far price went from it. In most of your charts, i never see this area clearly identified. After the open, price made a higher high (1666.00) and pulled back to the one minute opening range area (1662.50-1663.25. The strength of the push that created that swing high (1666.00) was stong enough to expect a pullback to an obvious area which coincided with the opening print and a past high volume zone created Sunday night (1662.50).

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trendisyourfriend View Post
I would say, the most conservative long entry was at the daily RTH open at 1662.75. I always make the one minute opening range very prominent on my chart as it is an area which does not demand any research and is quite obvious to identify every day. The day is always judged by how far price went from it. In most of your charts, i never see this area clearly identified. After the open, price made a higher high (1666.00) and pulled back to the one minute opening range area (1662.50-1663.25. The strength of the push that created that swing high (1666.00) was stong enough to expect a pullback to an obvious area which coincided with the opening print and a past high volume zone created Sunday night (1662.50).

i always take note of the opening swing (i use a more subjective approach to it than 1 minute though) but i erase the lines before posting to keep the charts clean. im not sure i follow why that was the place for a long though, could you explain it better? are you suggesting to buy it on first touch down or did you wait for the OSLO to be 1 ticked only and then get in on the upswing?

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  #387 (permalink)
 josh 
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Here's a question: where was the first legit long of the day and why?



The overnight market is balanced most of the session, then around 8:00 drops down and then back up, continuing into the open. At this point the structure has shifted a bit from balance to a long bias. However, the volume off the 1-tick of Friday's high was expanding so I got short at 64.50. I was wanting it to drop, but at the VWAP and overnight VPOC sellers just did not push hard enough. Buyers ate it up. Here's your long if you were looking long. Since I was short, I gave it another try but gave up on it and reversed to long. I added when 65 continued to hold. I got flat somewhere in the 69s.

The "why," if it's not clear is, VWAP after a move from -2SD to +2SD in less than an hour, and failure to break below the open and below the overnight VPOC. Also, TICK was creeping up after 62.50 was first touched, and the tick down to 62.25 just didn't bring in much volume. Though I was short and wanted lower, it was clear when the 62.50 held that we were probably going higher.

I also bought 67s and took a loss when it slammed down. The thing about that is, note that when 66.75 gave way, it blew right through the VPOC and the VWAP, and note the lack of volume until it got below that point. To me that says that buyers are not interested in these prices and demand lower. At that point you have to consider that maybe they will try to take out the LOD and also test the -2SD of VWAP. So, I got short, scaled, added, and wiggled around a bit more into the close, which you had to figure was probably going to be around the VPOC/VWAP given the time of day and relative balance. When you shorted at the end of the day, the market had already had several pushes and tried its best, but it just wasn't deep enough and couldn't "stick" -- each time buyers bought it back up before value could be established, so it showed that there wasn't enough selling interest to keep it down and build value. I added short at the VPOC/VWAP at 65s, and it held nicely, but there just was nothing doing really, though short was my direction of choice into the close.

A bit of a tough day to trade because we really had one good move up, and one good move down, but jumping on either one of those provided some good opportunities.

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  #388 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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Economic data: none

ON Profile: Pretty balanced looking profile with a poor-ish hi and lo. Tight range of 4.75 pts on light volume of 163k. The hi is right where the ES kept getting rejected yesterday afternoon confluent with fridays hi and yesterdays vpoc. The low is a tick above yesterdays low. So no new information to process and market awaits the bernanke tomorrow. Vpoc sitting at 1663, just 2 ticks above where it was 2 nights ago.



We are looking at an OAIR inside value right around yesterdays vpoc. There is a distinct LVN at 1666.75 confluent with yVAH which might serve as a nice location for a short right off the bat but given expected choppy open might be best to wait it out. I think we have another rotational day on tap. All time frames are positive.

Levels Above: 1666.75 LVN/VAH, 1670.75 pHi

Levels Below: 1659.75 MP single/VAH, 1656 nvpoc, 1648 HVN, 1640 ledge, 1638.5 MP single

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR inside value and chops, pushes lower to 1659.75 then grinds higher into the close.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and chops, grinds up to pHi but fails then sells off to 1663.

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  #389 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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1. Sold 1666.75 LVN/pVAH on 1.75 pt move. Instantly 6 ticks against me. Stopped after 3 min and 0 MF. Took a shot.

2. Long 1663.5 after 1662.5 pVAL traded and strong buying response. Stopped after 1 min and .5 MF.

3. Long 1662 dVAL. The low looks good from a known spot and we have a nice ledge above at 1663 that has been bumped up against 3 times now so I took the long. Negatives are that developing value on the day is lower. Scaled after 1 min and 0 MA. They threw me a bone! Second scale given.

4. Short 1665.25 mid/vwap/LVN on 3 pt move. Stopped after 2 min and .5 MF.




Recap
ES opened OAIR and put in a very rotational day today. End result is higher vpoc and value once again. Price finishes incrementally higher and inside value on average volume of about 1.4 mill. Of note is that the daily candle one time framing higher ended today and to my surprise there were no sellers to be found and anyone who did initiate shorts ended up finding themselves squeezed shortly thereafter. ES still strong like bull.

I can't say that I am really disappointed with my trades today aside from the last one. First one maybe was stupid because it had just printed that area prior to open and got a nice reaction off of it so maybe asking for another one was pushing it. Second trade I was early on a long. Third trade was great and I wish I had traded with that bias longer instead of taking that mid trade. The mid had some things working for it but overall I don't think it was good because there was a decent ledge that had formed around 1664.5 and we had a nice low that formed from a known location. Really annoyed the market couldn't go one more tick lower btw...

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  #390 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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Economic data: home sales, the bernanke, FOMC

ON Profile: Kind of a balanced profile overnight as ES traded in a 6 pt range on light volume of 140k. The low is the 1664.75 LVN to the tick and hi is mondays hi to the tick. Vpoc sitting at 1668, same as yesterdays rth session.



I am actually surprised ES traded in as wide a range as it did ahead of the bernanke. Given how little progress was made below yesterdays settlement and that we are now trading above yesterdays vpoc, it seems the bulls are in control and almost as if they might just be waiting for fomc to come out and rip this higher again. Yesterdays profile (MP) looks pretty fugly so maybe we chop around for the first few hours ahead of the FOMC and repair it then blast off. I anticipate an OAIR inside value with a 3-4 handle range until FOMC and then a potential big move, favoring higher. Maybe the bernanke's speech will cause some movement itself though but for now I will assume it wont. All time frames trending higher.

Levels Above: 1673.25 pHi

Levels Below: 1668 vpoc, 1664.75 ONLO/LVN, 1659.75 MP single/CLVN**, 1656 CHVN*, 1648-46.5 CHVN

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR and chops for 3-4 hours then ignites higher after FOMC.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and chops then sells off down to 1656 where it bounces.

Hypo#3- ES opens OAIR and and chops then sells off agressively after the fomc down to 1640 potentially.

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  #391 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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1. Sold 1671.25 pVAH/ONHI on 3.25 pt move after an OAIR open. I am wrong at pHi which is fine. I do not like how market found support at the 1668.25 ledge from yesterdays MP profile. Scratched after 4 min and .5 MA because of no confidence in myself. Would have been loser.

2. Sold 1682.25 on 5.5 pt move up after what looked like finally a selling response. Took 1 tick winner after 3 min and 0 MA vs 6 MF because it just ripped up in my face back to entry after not giving exit fill. Also would have been a loser.

3. Long 1677.25 vwap on crazy move down, this is a nasty selling response, stepping in front of a bus. Scratched after 2 min and 1.25 MA vs .75 MF. Would have been loser.

4. Sold 1677.25 vwap after 5.25 pt move up. Man, crazy market, not sure if this will hold since it just bounced off pHi. Scaled +8 after 2 min and .75 MA. Second scale given.

5. Sold 1681 HVN on 4 pt move. This is also above dVAH. Vpoc below at 1677.25. Scaled for 8 tick winner after 5 min and .75 MA. Second scale given.

6. Sold 1668 IBLO on 5 pt move up right after fomc was announced and it looked like nobody wanted to buy above it. Scaled after 1 min and .5 MA. Second scale given.

7. Long 1655.5 CHVN on 3.75 pt move. Really expecting bounce here off this support. Scaled after 1 min and .25 MA. Second scale given.

8. Long 1650 CLVN/ 2X IB low. Stopped after 3 min and .75 MF. Should have waited for my 1648-46.5 zone...




Recap
ES opened OAIR right at that ledge from yesterday and moved higher, aggressively after the bernanke started speaking only to put in a massive reversal and get slammed. Oddly enough we end up with higher value and vpoc but I am guessing we ignore that on a day like today? Price closed significantly lower on massive volume of about 2.7 mill. The daily candle gives us an outside reversal down day. This is a day to take notice. Will the market brush it off? We shall see.

Today started off real shaky for me as a I scratched my first 3 trades and they would have all been losers but then ran off 4 winners in a row. The last trade would have been icing on the cake and I should have followed my morning levels of 1648-46.5 but the 1650 seemed so sexy with the double IB and CLVN. Whatever, still my best day ever. When the HFTs turn off their algo's it sure seems like the market trades better or more pure to auction logic and today offered up multiple good set ups of which I didn't even take half because admittedly I wanted to preserve a nice winning day.

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  #392 (permalink)
 josh 
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Looks like you had a good day, nice job!

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  #393 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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Economic data: claims, home sales

ON Profile: Yesterdays sell off continued in globex. We have a massive 26.25 pt range and very heavy volume of over 500k. Support was found at the 1633 breakout area and resistance was the 1657.75 CHVN or the 1659 VAL from yesterday. Vpoc sitting at 1637.5 and profile shape is like a "b" so for now it seems buyers were found.



Might help to zoom out a bit after a big day like yesterday and see what we are working with.



Really a lot of ground covered since yesterday morning about an hour into the day, over 50 pts top to bottom! We never got a vpoc shift at the end of the day yesterday and I mused about it in my recap as to the meaning of it and it seems the reason was peoples perception of value changed greatly and it was searching for value... and it searched all the way down to 1633 so far. It would seem a test of the 1626 mc vpoc is likely but whether thats today or next week is unknown.

We are looking at an OAOR with a massive gap down. Dalton says go with the gap. 1646.5/48 has capped downside on 2 days in the last week so that might be a tempting spot to short. If ES can break into pRange then 1656 becomes the destination and possibly higher. Between 1633 and 1643 is pretty murky however as it is very thin. The ON vpoc at 1637.5 might act as support on first test lower. If it can get below 1633 then 1626 is the destination. I think the ideal situation would be responsive buying on the open, and hopefully up to 1646 area to initiate shorts and then a trip down to 1626.

Levels Above: 1646.5 pLo**, 1657 HVN, 1660 LVN*, 1664.5 CHVN

Levels Below: 1632.75 ONLO/breakout level *, 1629 nvpoc, 1626 mc vpoc***, 1621 CHVN, 1613 CHVN**

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR and responsive buyers push to 1646 pLo where aggressive sellers come in and auction it down to 1633/1626.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAOR and sellers push lower but fail around 1637.5 ON vpoc and buyers grind it higher thru the day up to 1657.

Hypo#3- ES opens OD lower, go with!

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  #394 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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1. Long 1636.75 after open OAOR and push below OSLO only went 1 tick. We also opened right near the 1st vwap to downside. Scaled after 1 min and 0 MA. Second scale given.

2. Long 1636.25 1st vwap as it appeared on footprint there was buying absorption and vpoc is above at 1639.25 and we are balancing. Scratched after 7 minutes due to the housing number. Would have been a loser.

3. Sold 1646 after pLo printed weakly twice. Instantly swept 5 ticks against me. Stopped after 4 min and .25 MF.

4. Long 1646.5 pLo/ 1st vwap on 5.25 pt move. Lots of acceptance in pRange but we have a nice looking hi in place and maybe the move up has already been made. Still thinking ultimate destination for today is 1656 though. LVN below 1665.25 might provide support. Scaled after 13 min and .25 MA. Second scale given.

5. Long 1643 mid/vwap (ETH) on 3.5 pt move down. So we are back in the IB and in a downtrend since the hi and therefore not sure if this trade makes sense but I still think there is more upside left in the day up to 1656. Scaled after 2 min and 0 MA. Second scale given.




Recap
ES opened OAOR and chopped a bit before the number and then staked a path higher towards the 1656 CHVN but didn't quite make it there. We end up with value and vpoc some 30 pts lower than yesterday. Price closed down but inside yesterdays range on very high volume once again of about 2.2 mill. For now, the breakout area of 1633 has been strongly rejected. I think next target is up to 1656 and then a decision will be made as to whether that is too expensive.

Lots of trades offered up again today, I wish I had earned the right to be trading multiple lots as these last 2 days have really offered up big potential winners. First trade today for me was a new type of trade that I lifted out of PB's playbook and it worked. A market with a big gap down that formed a balance session overnight and opened right at the -1 vwap with an eye towards back to vpoc and thats where it went to the tick. I am wondering if that short I took at pLo was a sucker play given the context. Do you only want to make a trade like that if it moves there right away before exploring and rejecting lower prices? Have to file that one and see how it plays out again. There were other trades I wanted to take but I still struggle with confidence. Two good days in row, at least pnl wise, so hopefully this continues. Funny how on good days I feel like I am getting this figured out and bad days I feel like I suck, ha.

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  #395 (permalink)
 josh 
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Nice job P. Especially nice how you shorted and lost, and then had the objectivity to then buy soon after for a winner. It may seem small, but that takes seeing what's happening, instead of seeing what you wanted the last trade to be, and is the mark of a real winner. Kudos and congrats.

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  #396 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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Economic data: durable goods

ON Profile: Another wide ranging globex session gives us 16.5 pts of range. ES initially explored higher and took out pHi by a point but then sellers came in and knocked it down to yesterdays high volume area around 1639. Profile shape is kind of double distribution like with vpoc still up at 1651.25 but possibly shifting to 1642 before open. Volume is good at 267k but not nearly as high as yesterdays 500k.



Yesterdays session filled in the upper part of the low volume area between 1633 and 1643. For now, 1633 is deemed as too cheap. Further, the 1646.5-48 area filled out with 1648 being the most favored price on the day. Monday is a holiday so it might go dead around lunch time into the close. We are set to open inside yesterdays range and value area so it could be choppy off the bat. I think todays key level will be the ONLO. If there is more business to be done below that then I think 1633 is in the cards but if its rejected then I still want to target that 1656.25 CHVN. Longer time frames are incredibly bullish. Daily time frame is balancing.

Levels Above: 1648 nvpoc, 1656.25 CHVN**, 1660 CLVN, 1664.5 CHVN**

Levels Below: 1638.75 ONLO*, 1632.75 BO level, 1629 nvpoc, 1626.5 CHVN***, 1620 CHVN, 1613.5 CHVN**

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR inside/at VAL and sellers push to ONLO where they fail then auctions higher thru the day to 1656.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and responsive buyers push to nvpoc 1648 where sellers enter and push lower thru the day to 1633.

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  #397 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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1. Long 1639 -1 vwap after opening below and coming back into vwap value and leaving poor-ish high behind at 1642. Scaled after 30 seconds and .25 MA. No second scale.

2. Long 1641 eth vwap on 3 pt pullback from a poor looking triple top hi. This is second pb to eth vwap though and my stop is at 39 where vpoc is so not great context with respect to that but it is trending higher. Scratched after 4 min and .25 MF vs 1.0 MA. Just felt like I was paying up too much to get long. Would have been a winner.




Recap
ES opened OAIR below value and chopped a bit before making a move lower to pLo but failing and then grinding higher the rest of the day. Vpoc and value shifted overlapping lower. Price closed on the hi and above value on good volume once again but significantly lighter than the previous 2 days at about 1.6 mill. The 1633 area is still seen as too cheap but this makes for a double bottom now.

Not happy with my trading today, or lack there of. There was some good opportunity, basically any long taken on a 3pt or greater pullback would have worked. Time to relax and get ready for the heat-pacers game tonight...

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  #398 (permalink)
 Profiler 
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Hope everyone is enjoying the holiday, its a bit different being in a foreign country on days like these. My grandpa served in WW2 as part of the merchant marines in the south pacific and I tip my hat to him and everyone else who served anywhere/ anytime. Lets go to the charts...



The chart shows how last week changed the composite. Most obvious is the range extension upwards and subsequent rejection. However, also very noticeable is the filling in of the breakout area from 1633 to 1640 and the sharpening of the LVN at 1633. Market tested the 1634 level twice now and buyers found it too cheap. On a possible test of 1633 this week, will the market bounce or go through? Tough question... I will play for the bounce first time but I am not as confident about buying 1633 as I was last week (and which I did not get filled obviously...). 1626.5 is currently the mc vpoc but 1656 is not too far behind and I suspect one days of trading around there will shift the vpoc up.



Bigger picture since the beginning of the year puts things into perspective. The 1546.5 mc vpoc is just gigantic compares to our 1626.5 and any meaningful pullback would have that as a destination. Long and medium term time frames are wildly bullish still while the daily time frame is balancing.

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  #399 (permalink)
 para6ut 
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Levels Below: 1659.75 MP single/VAH, 1656 nvpoc, 1648 HVN, 1640 ledge, 1638.5 MP single

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR inside value and chops, pushes lower to 1659.75 then grinds higher into the close.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and chops, grinds up to pHi but fails then sells off to 1663.



Profiler,

Could you please help me understand what MP single print means ?
I kind of understand the MP meaning i.e. one letter print , for example 'A' - price shot up from the open and never revisited the area again, but in VP?

Much appreciated,

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 Profiler 
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para6ut View Post

Profiler,

Could you please help me understand what MP single print means ?
I kind of understand the MP meaning i.e. one letter print , for example 'A' - price shot up from the open and never revisited the area again, but in VP?

Much appreciated,

Good question. I will refer you here for the definition of a single print. As it relates to volume profile is a very interesting question though and it made me think about how to refine it possibly. In the chart I attached, you will see the latest single print that was left behind and it occurred on this last wednesday. You will see that on the volume profile chart that nothing really sticks out. However, often times it seems as there will be confluence between the two as an LVN will be left behind. See the bottom chart for that.




Why is an MP single print important? Well, it is an area where something happened. Something changed or a new participant entered the market and took price away from where it was and was strong enough to never let it revisit that price the rest of the day. So if the market does come back to that price another day it might be reasonable to expect that same participant to enter again and move it away. I can tell you that since I have started keeping a detailed log of my MP single print trades, they are more than 70% successful. My stat computer is currently down so I cant give you the exact % and I will say my sample size is small as well but these things really seem to matter. Hope this helps.

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