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Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling
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Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling

  #331 (permalink)
Elite Member
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Favorite Futures: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 589 received

5-2 pre-market

Economic data: initial claims, productivity, trade balance

ON Profile: We have a 6.75 pt range so far on light volume (174k). It seems there was not much interest to take it lower after the restart since the low is only 2 ticks below the open. The hi is at 1585.5 currently but I cant really figure out a good reason why it stopped there. Initially the 1582.75 CHVN provided resistance. Vpoc sitting at 1581.25. Profile shape is somewhat balanced. Overnight inventory is long.

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ES is moving kind of wildly now, having come close to pHi by a few ticks and then being strongly rejected before finding tentative support near 1582.75 CHVN again. Im not really sure how to gameplan this today. I was expecting an OAIR rotational day and will use the ONLO and ONHI as reference points for today. For now, I think sellers make first push and am not sure if 1579 will hold given whats just happened. Will look to short around 1588 again.

Levels Above: 1589.5 pHi/ONHI, 1593.25 all time hi, 1600

Levels Below: 1582.75 CHVN, 1578.75 ONLO*, 1576 pLo, 1573.5 CHVN

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR and pushes lower first to ONLO and flushes down to 1576 pLo to pick up buyers and then grinds higher through the day.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and pushes higher to 1582.75 CHVN and fails then grinds lower through the day.

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  #332 (permalink)
Elite Member
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Favorite Futures: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 589 received

5-2 trades and recap

1. Sold 1588.5 on 6.25 pt move pre-market. This level acted as good resistance several times yesterday so I think there is a good chance of at least getting a scale on this first test today. Draghi is speaking now which caused this move up so that is a risk. Scaled after 6 min and .25 MA. Second scale given. Wow its really coming off, trading 1582 now. Max winner=8.25 pts.

2. Short 1592 in between nvpoc and naked settlement on 6 pt move after it stopped at 1592.5. Also 1.5 IB. Very strong burst above balance. I am wrong at new all time hi's. 7 minutes in and such a poor hi has formed. Scratched after 23 min and 1.25 MF vs .5 MA. Massive buyers at ahead of my scale and such a poor hi I took it off. Possible trend day as well.

3. Long 1593.25 pHi after new hi at 1594.25 made and could only pull back to 1592.75 with serious absorption at this price. The day is strongly positive. 43 min in its gone 5 ticks against and 4 ticks for me, creating a double top and now back to entry. I think odds are still in my favor but this trade is taking its sweet time and maybe it needs to go lower first before it can take out hi's into the close. 78 min in and its come down to my exit but only printed 132 so I am still in the trade and its back to entry... I hope that was the sell off before new hi's... Stopped after 2 hours and 1.0 MF.

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Recap
ES opened OAIR inside value and chopped a bit after making a potent move upward before breaking out again and closing near the hi while making new all time hi. Value and vpoc shifted higher. Volume again nothing special and below average at 1.23 mill. Its almost as if the market wanted to wait for non-farms tomorrow before really breaking out higher.

That first pre-market trade was awesome, wish I could get more of those and I traded size. Second and third trades didn't work out. I really wish I could have latched on to a long today from a good price. Debated that first pullback to mid after the big move higher but I don't know why I decided against. Not going to say much else today as I am switching over to sierra charts now and have to set everything up for tomorrow. Its cheaper, seems to be just as good and IRT has been giving me such headaches lately. You can really tell IRT was designed by an engineer and not aapl, its just not very user-friendly. But it can do anything you want it to.

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  #333 (permalink)
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Profiler View Post
as I am switching over to sierra charts now and have to set everything up for tomorrow. Its cheaper, seems to be just as good and IRT has been giving me such headaches lately. You can really tell IRT was designed by an engineer and not aapl, its just not very user-friendly. But it can do anything you want it to.

Amen

Spent 15 mins watching video how to delete parallet trenlines I accidently put on right in middle of a trade. Everytime you need held with a topic you got to go thru the entire database to find the needle in haystack. Have they ever thought of adding a search function to their website? Website is so 1998.

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  #334 (permalink)
Elite Member
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Favorite Futures: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 589 received

5-3 pre-market

Economic data: none (kidding- nonfarms, factory, ISM)

ON profile: ES traded in a very tight 3.5 pt range ahead of the non-farms report, as expected. Number is out and the market likes it, currently trading 1603 with a 1605.75 hi. Wow.

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So we have a large gap up above balance and at new all time hi's which is very bullish. Can the market hold these gains/gap? Dalton says go with the gap. We have nothing to lean on up here except the opening range when it comes out and the globex hi so that will determine the trades. We are set for an OAOR, with the possibility of an OD. You would think at least some of the gap would be re-traced but who knows? Trade what you see.

Levels Above: none

Levels Below: 1600?, 1594.25/1593 BAH***, 1592.5 nvpoc, 1588.5 MP single, 1585.75 MP Single

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR and responsive sellers make first push lower down to ??? before it stabilized and buyers auction higher thru the day.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and pushes higher first and squeezes all shorts out making significant hi and trades lower the rest of the day.

Hypo#3- ES opens OD- go with!

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  #335 (permalink)
Elite Member
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Favorite Futures: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 589 received

5-3 trades and recap

1. Sold 1601.25 pre-market after release, taking a flyer. Stopped after 18 seconds and 0 MF. Great trade!

2. Sold 1611.25 after finally seeing what looked like a good selling response at 1611.75. Scaled after 14 min and .5 MA. That was a brutal hold, so much buying pressure. Second scale given. Max winner 2.75 pts.

3. Long 1610.5 vpoc on 1.25 pt pb off hi which is a double top. We are almost an hour into the day and no attempt has been made to fill the gab so I am trying to get long. Scaled after 2 min and 0 MA. Second scale given. Max winner 2.5 pts.

4. Long 1611.75 intraday MP single/LVN on 2.5 pt pb from the hi which is a double top and very poor. Tons of volume up there and overall context is still very bullish but I am unsure about this trade still. Vpoc above at my exit. Now 60 min into the trade with 1.0 MF vs .75 MA. Vpoc shifted to a tick above entry and the LVN zone has been completely filled in. ES now balancing and I am long from the middle of dVA. Scaled after 94 min and .75 MA. No second.

5. Long 1610.25 dVAL on 3.25 pt move down. Still have poor hi above but market unable to make much progress beyond IBHI. Scratched after 9 min and 1.5 MA vs .25 MF. Would have been a loser.

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Recap
ES opened OAOR with a sizable +15 pt gap higher made after payroll report. It tacked on another 8 pts in the first hour but then balanced the rest of the day. Value and vpoc shifted strongly higher. Price closed much higher but inside value. I dont have the exact volume for RTH only but it was about 1.5 mill which is just a little above average which is kind of a negative. Make no mistake though this was a clear break higher above the 1593 prior balance area high we had been in since march. We have a large gap below us now from 1605.5 to 1594.25. Todays hi was extremely poor and I anticipate that to be cleaned up.

So my charts are pretty wack as I haven't been able to figure out SC yet but I will work on it this weekend. I'm ok with my trades today. First trade was just a stab at maybe some sellers being activated to get it back under 1600. Didn't work at all. Second was a little dicey but I thought I saw a strong selling response finally at that level so I jumped in and it worked out and then after it didn't go far I grabbed a long for the last gasp higher. Winning day into the weekend, I'll take it.

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  #336 (permalink)
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@Profiler

Way to go! Taking what the market hath given. Is the look of your chart the one you now trade from?

Ken

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  #337 (permalink)
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Good trading today. One thing I want to point out on any significant gap, mark the pullback low -todays was 1608.25. See how strong it was all day long. When we came back down around 2:30 it gave a long for a good 4 points to 12 area and then at end of day held very strong at end of day too and so far in after hours hasnt broken. Dont ask me why but I've seen this thing over the years---its same thing in bear markets on gap downs.

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  #338 (permalink)
Elite Member
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Favorite Futures: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 589 received


COTtrader View Post
@Profiler

Way to go! Taking what the market hath given. Is the look of your chart the one you now trade from?

Ken

thanks Ken! I lifted PB's charts off his website and also am trying to create my own to resemble my old IRT one but turns out SC is about as user friendly as IRT so far so will have to really spend some time this weekend figuring it out. I like the charts you are posting now btw, I can finally read them!



garyboy275 View Post
Good trading today. One thing I want to point out on any significant gap, mark the pullback low -todays was 1608.25. See how strong it was all day long. When we came back down around 2:30 it gave a long for a good 4 points to 12 area and then at end of day held very strong at end of day too and so far in after hours hasnt broken. Dont ask me why but I've seen this thing over the years---its same thing in bear markets on gap downs.

Thanks for pointing that out and I was actually watching that at the time with the intention of putting on a long at 1608.75 if it printed below it weakly but got distracted by something and missed the boat. Will definitely look for that in the future. How do you work that trade, go in blind at the exact low or pay up if no fill or kind of wait for reaction first then get in higher?

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  #339 (permalink)
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I just put in an order and wait for fill-its important to get the fill whether its one tic or two tics above it doesnt matter as long as you stick with stop. Aim for the prior high I think yesterdays was 11.50 before the pullback so even if you filled anywhere below 09 or at 09 with a 1.25 stop your reward would be at least 2.50. Tighter the trade more your reward but its kinda fine balance between tight trade and not missing out. This is when watching the tape comes in handy

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  #340 (permalink)
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: schwab, metatrader, OEC,T4,TDameritrade
Favorite Futures: CL ES 6C 6E
 
Posts: 254 since Oct 2012
Thanks: 197 given, 438 received


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27S0Mo0g7mc

Heres the video of it-cool feature to have to IRT. I marked the levels ahead of time-had a hard time creating the video. ITs running at 2000x. The sooner you mark your levels I think bigger your edge.


Last edited by garyboy275; May 5th, 2013 at 04:55 PM.
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