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Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling


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Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling

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  #201 (permalink)
wa/ usa
 
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Profiler View Post
was shorting yesterdays hi basically a layup? Because I don't get it!

How about actually being short and getting out for 1tic+ uuuurghhhhhh

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  #202 (permalink)
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I also failed to mention I was also confused and I didn't take any trades today. But I am playing a bit of a Monday mourning QB.knowing your trades turned out losers it's easy to say what I said. If they turned out winners which they easily could have. I would b saying man he's good what the hell does he see.

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  #203 (permalink)
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Profiler View Post
1. Long 1549.5 LVN/OSHI

2. Long 1546 MP single on 5 pt move down.

3. Shorted 1546.5 LVN on 3.25 pt move. Would have been winner...

4. Long 1546 vpoc on 1.5pt pb.




First let me say that I am enjoying your journal and I want to give some of my input-I was helped immensely when I first started trading and I think its only reasonable that I pay it forward. Please forgive if it makes you feel bad or negative and next time I ll keep it to myself.

The 3 entries that didnt work you took all of them against the trend while price was dropping-check the candles-each dropping candle doesnt even retrace into previous candle just keeps dropping. Going against prevailing wind isnt the way to trade no matter what methodology you are using. Better to flow with the wind in your sails. You have to let the price trade at your level for at least a couple of candles, I know anxiety of a missed trade sets in but try it next time. The one trade that would have worked is precisely that way-price trades at that level before falling. Just my 2c. Try it next time and keep a post it note if it works.

Just another Question why didnt you hold onto the short from 46.50 on the 50% retrace--the retrace to mid is one of the "top" VP setups out there. Esp since you were stopped out at same level, now its going back to test the level where you got stopped out. I had same trade and it was the best trade of day for me +4.5. 47.50 was a great level yesterday-price couldnt break thru to downside and today to upside. Mark it down.

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  #204 (permalink)
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garyboy275 View Post

The 3 entries that didnt work you took all of them against the trend while price was dropping-check the candles-each dropping candle doesnt even retrace into previous candle just keeps dropping. Going against prevailing wind isnt the way to trade no matter what methodology you are using. Better to flow with the wind in your sails. You have to let the price trade at your level for at least a couple of candles, I know anxiety of a missed trade sets in but try it next time.

Just another Question why didnt you hold onto the short from 46.50 on the 50% retrace--the retrace to mid is one of the "top" VP setups out there. Esp since you were stopped out at same level, now its going back to test the level where you got stopped out. I had same trade and it was the best trade of day for me +4.5. 47.50 was a great level yesterday-price couldnt break thru to downside and today to upside. Mark it down.

thanks gary for the comments and no worries, you didnt make me feel bad. feel free to post any time you want. i have to respectfully disagree with your assertion that one needs to wait for price to trade at a level for a few candles before jumping in. thats your style and it works for you. i have no style (both in trading and fashion) so i am just being precise to the tick for everything, on first touch but i know FT71 definitely would not say "you must wait for a few candles to trade at your price before getting in" and his style is what i am trying to emulate (until i can make my own).

as for why did i scratch that mid trade... man i was flustered after the 2 previous losing trades, it was a powerful instant spike 5 ticks against me that i did not see coming and i was cursing myself for frontrunning the mid by 2 ticks and i just panicked and wanted out. tip of the hat to you for staying in it!

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  #205 (permalink)
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i have no style (both in trading and fashion) so i am just being precise to the tick for everything, on first touch but i know FT71 definitely would not say "you must wait for a few candles to trade at your price before getting in" and his style is what i am trying to emulate (until i can make my own).

as for why did i scratch that mid trade... man i was flustered after the 2 previous losing trades, it was a powerful instant spike 5 ticks against me that i did not see coming and i was cursing myself for frontrunning the mid by 2 ticks and i just panicked and wanted out. tip of the hat to you for staying in it!


As for spike I saw that and I almost did what you did--but I walked away from my monitor and I had nothing to do and was standing at the door (seriously) waiting 5-10 minutes-did a few pushups, wasted time and came back for sure expecting a stop out but it was happily trading well below entry.

I am not trying to change your style just adding another viewpoint. You can low tic or high tic when you have strong conviction in a fast moving market-doubt you would be able to do it in a slow orderly market like we ve had for the last month or so. Again I am humble and not trying to change your style just adding my 2c.

The first 2 losing trades shouldve had nothing to do with the next trade--I know easier said than done but come on man-just do it!! We expect better next time around--OPEX week can be tough so dont beat yourself thrus/fri should bring increased volatility.

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  #206 (permalink)
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@Profiler, looking at the bigger picture of the last few days, here is a profile of the gap up Tuesday 3/5 through Monday of this week, and then Tuesday's trade and profile on the right.



No doubt you have a similar view, but after doing it this way it gave me a bit of a different perspective and I thought you might want to have a look. You can see the area of around 46.75 to 48.25 being an area of rejection (from the highs on Friday, to trading through it and forming a distribution above on Monday). You can see another area of relatively low volume from 40.75 to 41.50. Below you see the 38s, and the 35s. My volume numbers may be a little different from yours (I have a more prominent peak at 38s probably) because my Thursday is ESH, whereas yours is probably ESM, but overall they are similar.

The market found support and rejected 47s at the open, the first area mentioned above. It then rejected 47s as it traded through on the way down. It rejected 47s again after the 43 low was put in. Then the LOD was made at 41.75 which is yesterday's low and just above the low volume area. Finally, 47s again provided resistance and rejected further upside at the close.

This is all good and well in hindsight and not so easy to trade in real time (obviously for me, as I mentioned I had a few losers in this area), but I thought I would post some observations of the areas (not specific prices, more like 4 to 6 in each area), and how if I had viewed them in this light, perhaps I would not have been so eager to trade 46s for example, though it was important on Monday. Bringing in Tuesday's trade pretty much gives the same picture, with a more prominent development between 41s and 47s of course, both of which areas I think could be very important tomorrow.

Clearly the 47s are important, largely due to it being the high last week. Incidentally, the long I took off the low at 43 was partly due to it being Monday's low, but was also largely due to the DJIA at this same time testing its Friday highs (from the upside, as the S&P had been unable to breach from underneath earlier!), dipping below, and finding good volume and support. The dow, useless as it may seem to me being a 30 stock index, is on everyone's radar, and it provided some good information in this case.

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  #207 (permalink)
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First off, thanks to everyone who posted yesterday! Definitely a benefit to having a blog here is people offering their knowledge to you. Aight, back to the routine...

Economic data: retail sales, import/export, biz inventories

ON Profile: Weird looking profile with vpoc stuck 2 ticks off the lows which you would think forebodes more downside but as we learned yesterday thats not necessarily the case. The hi stopped a tick short of the 1550 level and the low is just a tick below the VAL. Not really sure how to describe the shape- maybe picture bozo the clown holding his arms out for a hug? ES auctioned higher initially last night, above the ~1547 level that has been important the last few days but then fell back into the bottom distribution where it spent the majority of its time.



Very interesting day on tap potentially. We now have a double bottom on the daily chart at 1541.75 to the tick. I don't expect that to hold on 3rd test. Question is will it fall out of the balance area bounded by ~1540 area and seek out the HVNs at 1538 and 1535.25? Yesterday I was stalking a long at 1540.5, today I don't think it makes sense. SO retail sales are out now and market is reacting very positively to it, up near the hi, definitely changes the picture. I am expecting an OAIR, right near the VAH which is kind of the line in the sand. Where will the ES be accepted today? If above, those poor hi's from the last 2 days are certainly juicy targets. If below, that double bottom has a bullseye. All time frames point higher still.

Levels Above: 1549.5 lvn, 1551 poor hi

Levels Below: 1546 nvpoc, 1541.75 double bottom, 1540.5 nvpoc/ BAH, 1538.25 HVN, 1535.25 CHVN**, 1531.5 LVN

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR pushes lower to nvpoc at 1546 to pick up buyers then targets poor hi in grind higher.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and pushes into upper distribution but fails then heads lower targeting 1541.75 double bottom and possibly below 1540.

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  #208 (permalink)
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1. Sold 1547.75 LVN/top of distribution on 5 pt move pre-market. This area has been a key level the last few days so on a big rotation into it I took the fade. 22 minutes in and 4 ticks against me, not looking good. 53 min and now 2 ticks in favor a few minutes before the open, didn't anticipate being in this trade for so long. Filled just after open. 57 min and 1.0 MA. Second scale given if stop at original, if moved to BE, no second.

2. Long 1545.5 LVN 1 tick ahead of mid/vwap on 2.5 pt move. Breadth 10, tick -445. I think I just heard PB sigh when I pulled the trigger on this based on its location. Vpoc is above at 1546.75. Bears gave it their best this morning but pulled up lame at the double bottom so I was looking long but didn't know where until finally this pb. Distinct ledge below at 1545 which I hope will act as support. Negative being the prior up move failed 1 tick below hi and at the 1547.5 level that has been controlling things lately. Scaled after 20 min and .25 MA. Second scale given.

3. Long 1547.75 level from this morning on 2.5 pt pb. Breadth 121 and tick -443. ES broke out above the mini-dividing line at 1547.5 and formed a nice balance area above at 1549 and double top from yesterday to the tick with a poor hi left in place to support a long. Volume is atrocious though which goes against the long, plus this trade is in the upper quadrant of the 40-50 balance area we have established over last few days. 3 ticks against me with some pretty heavy volume traded below. IBHI is 2 ticks above and buyers are just pecking at it weakly. Scaled after 24 min and .75 MA!



Recap
ES opened OAIR right at the VAH/diving line between 2 minor balance areas. A probe into the top distribution was strongly slapped down and for a moment it looked like a rout might be on. But these weren't the sellers we were looking for for that kind of action. They stopped at the ONLO to the tick, pulled back then made another attempt lower but pulled up lame 2 ticks before the double daily bottom. Buyers absorbed all supply then the usual rally took place. These buyers too lacked conviction, stopping at yesterday's hi to the tick. At the end of the day, value shifted higher, vpoc continued its march higher and the ES closed up a few points. Volume barely cracked a mill so totally bushleague and the one chink in the armor of this rally. Daily candle gives us an inside day and 3 days in a row of tight balance with the mc vpoc at 1549 or 1546 if you use 4 days. Could be a breakout coming tomorrow...

All 3 trades worked out today and gave second scales which is nice, especially after yesterday. Im pissed I missed the mid trade I posted on the chart but I thought it would trade up to 1546 first because of that low volume zone. Otherwise it was a cherry set-up but it did give only 1 scale. Time to relax and watch the champions league...

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  #209 (permalink)
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Nice work P.

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  #210 (permalink)
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Nice work - that Mid at 45.50 was the bomb. Set up very cleanly too. Measure move from low to top back to mid, from mid to high was expected 51 which was the day high.

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garyboy275 View Post
Nice work - that Mid at 45.50 was the bomb. Set up very cleanly too. Measure move from low to top back to mid, from mid to high was expected 51 which was the day high.

can you explain this measured move better and also the theory behind it?

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  #212 (permalink)
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can you explain this measured move better and also the theory behind it?


There is really no theory behind it but it's fairly common. In todays case it was exactly the 50% fib extension which might have been the reason for working perfectly. Here is a chart to explain it a bit





first time posting an image hope it works, the two red arrows are equal in length. Basically the instument moves from bottom point A to top point B, then retraces to point C(where you buy hoping up move continues), then you look for continuation of move of an equal value B-A, starting from point C or whereever the low of the move was.

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  #213 (permalink)
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I didn't trade today had to work.but I see u had a good day. Congrats! I admire your patience to hold on to a trade and wait for it to play out.

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  #214 (permalink)
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Economic Data: claims, PPI, current account

ON Profile: We have a double distribution shaped profile seperated by a distinct LVN a tick above the 3 day hi balance area hi. 5 pts of range with ES currently sitting on a new 5 year hi at 1554.25 and above average volume so far (150k). The low is 1549, the 3 day mc vpoc, so they auctioned it down there to the tick to pick up buyers and then it broke out.



Potentially very interesting day on tap here. ES is set to open with a gap up above a 3 or 4 day balance area at a new 5 year hi. It could open OD and just drive higher but I don't think so. I am expecting an OAOR with responsive sellers making the first push. How far they get will be the key to the day. If they can take it to the pHi at 1551, I expect buyers to respond and possibly set the low of the day around there if they take control and grind it higher into the close. If sellers can't come close to filling in the gap, that is even more bullish. However, if sellers can take it back into balance and it is accepted, a potential big down is on tap with 1535 or even lower being on the table. Same scenario if bulls make first push out of the gate and fail then sellers take control. Can they get it into prior balance is the key for me. If we end up with a big down day after gapping up to new highs on the open, could be a major reversal signal. However, my bias is definitely to the long side. All time frames are trending higher.

Levels Above: ?

Levels below: 1551 BAH/double top**, 1549 mc vpoc, 1548 CLVN, 1546 CHVN, 1540.25 nvpoc/prior balance area hi**
1535.25 mc vpoc***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR, responsive sellers push to pHi but fail just before and buyers take over and grind it higher thru the day.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAOR, buyers push out of the gate but fail and sellers take control and auction it back into pBA and the bottom falls out.

Hypo#3- ES opens OD (up or down). Go with!!

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Profiler View Post
Levels Above: ?

All-time cash high: 1576
All-time closing high: 1565

Cash about 5.50-6 ahead of futures, so your ES prices are 1559-60 first, then 1570-71.

Anything's possible, but it would seem strange they won't gun for 1565, esp. since we will open above yesterday.

Or better yet, watch a cash chart, if you don't have it then look at marketwatch, as it's updated real-time, just open it there and shrink down the window small and put it in a corner, and you can be aware of the price. Just know 1565.

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  #216 (permalink)
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1. Long 1553.75 mid/vwap on 1.5 pt pb off highs. Market not acting as strong as I would have liked to take this trade but it did fail to close the gap, only printed 1 tick below the open and left a poor hi behind with over 4k at the top tick which to me doesn't indicate a completed auction. Downsides are that its only a 1.5 pt pb and volume on this breakout is right at or even a little below 20 day average so no confirmation there. Breadth also acting poorly, opening ~340 and now trending down at 220. Tick mostly positive but nothing extreme, either way. Scaled after 5 min and 0 MA- love it when I take no heat. No second scale...wow.



Recap
ES open OAOR and market on open orders caused an instant 1 pt spike up but then sellers came in for the ol college try and failed, only able to take it 1 tick beneath the open. Buyers took it higher but it was obvious they lacked conviction and volume was pathetic. We ended up with an extremely boring rotational day. Vpoc shifted higher, value shifted higher. Volume was horrendous- with 20 minutes or so left to the close I saw only 875k had traded but late day action took it over a mill. Price closed near hi's, above/at value area high. Overall, the march higher continues. The gap up held. Aggressive sellers remain elusive.

This definitely was not the type of day I had planned for- nowhere in my playbook did I have small range rotational day considered. Another example of why trading is hard... Might of had a nice day if I had pulled the trigger on the trades I considered but I just didn't see a whole lot of opportunity today. Tomorrow is another day. Maybe I should start looking at crude to just get familiar with it?

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  #217 (permalink)
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Economic Data: CPI, empire, michigan

ON Profile: Interesting shaped profile so far. ON vpoc lines up exactly with yesterdays vpoc. Only 4.75 pts of range and a very tight value area with no downside exploration and a probe above yesterdays hi that got rejected and sent back into range. The hi of 1558.75 roughly corresponds to the 1565 all time cash closing hi so not unreasonable to believe sellers would be expected there on first touch. To me it seem this profile says higher is still the way.



We have some important 730 numbers coming out that could change the picture but for now I am expecting ES to open OAIR and to have another balanced, rotational session with a bias at least initially to the upside. Yesterdays action was interesting- it gapped up higher and held the gap which is bullish but it made very little upside progress beyond that. I think the DOW has been up 10 days in a row. Kind of feels like they want to tag the all time high and then start taking some profits. We shall see. All time frames point higher but I think the risk of a sharp big down day is increasing.

Levels Above: ~1559 all time closing cash high, ~1570 all time cash high

Levels Below: 1551-1551.75 gap zone**, 1549.25 nvpoc, 1548 CLVN, 1546 mc vpoc, 1540.5 nvpoc**, 1535.25 mc vpoc***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR inside value and pushes lower, possibly fills gap at 1551 to pick up buyers then rotates higher up to the all time cash close hi where responsive sellers await and a close in the middle.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and pushes higher out of the gate to 1559 level where responive sellers kick in and auction it lower. I expect support at 1551 but if that does not hold, could get interesting.

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  #218 (permalink)
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1. Long 1551 double top on 3.5 pt move down. ES opened with an aggressive move down but buyers were definitely present around yesterdays VAL. Volume is ~25% higher than average. Stopped after 4 min and .25 MF, really expected more support here...

2. Sold 1550.5 on 1.5 pt move off low. They are really trying to hold it inside prior balance area as 40k has printed at 1550.75. Wanted 1551 but bailed after no fill on first print, then decided to wait for 1552 mid/vwap/pLo but after so much resistance at 1550.75 I jumped in and sold 1550.5. Negatives are small rotation and the fact current low has a weak print from a known point (mc vpoc). Volume still running above average. If this prints above 1551 I am toast. Toasted after 6 min and .75 MF. Well even the mid fade would not have worked...

3. Long 1553.25 vwap/ prior vpoc on 3.25 pt move. We've had range expansion up. Vpoc is up above at 1554.75 and the hi looks good but it stopped short of pHi and ONHI and given that we went below balance today and came back in I would expect a move to the top side of balance. Mid is 2 ticks below. Vpoc just shifted to my entry- is that good or bad? If this is a rotational day then I am playing in the middle and thats not good. 16 minutes in and its gone 4 ticks against me down to the VAL, hopefully it holds but not looking likely. 6 tick against me but weak print (193) so i didnt get out. Stopped after 27 min and .5 MF. Done for the day, I'm clearly not in sync with this market...




Recap
ES opened OTD or OAIR with sellers eager to do business. A trip through yesterday's lows and back into the prior balance area picked up buyers and set the stage for standard grind it up rally. Market hasn't closed yet but its come off hi's and is near lows. As of now, vpoc is lower and value is overlapping lower which is a change of pace. Price is lower and volume is ok. Overall profile shape is balanced.

I'm fine with my first trade-it didnt work out but I think the reasons for doing the trade were valid. Second trade was questionable but we broke back into prior balance on above average volume and then printed size at the key 1551 level so I thought they were trying to hold it in. Bad trade or not? Third trade...playing in the middle on rotational day and aiming for the late day levitation that has been standard lately but didn't come today. So crappy way to end the week. Eventually I will figure this out!

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  #219 (permalink)
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Profiler View Post
1. Long 1551 ... really expected more support here...

I sort of did as well. But this is 2 minutes after a very weak Michigan number, and since so many were probably buying this gap fill, it's not surprising that the VPOC of the distribution above 47 was tested, and it provided beautiful support. Run a few more stops, fill a few more below 51, THEN go up as planned.


Profiler View Post
Second trade was questionable but we broke back into prior balance on above average volume and then printed size at the key 1551 level so I thought they were trying to hold it in. Bad trade or not?

Bad trade? Not really, but FWIW I took the other side long at 1550 right after you took the short, so I saw the likelihood to break 1551 as stronger than the likelihood to break lower. Delta was rising since 49 printed, and I bought at the real make-or-break point, so I think it could have gone your way, but sellers had just lost momentum, and when 1550 received some volume and they pushed but it didn't budge, it was all over. The fact that you see size at 51 means that sellers are holding it, yes. But it also means that buyers are pushing and pushing hard. What you would prefer to see there in this case IMO, is a lack of volume, a weak attempt up to 51.25 or 51.50, and then there's your short. But the fact that buyers are trying very hard there means that unless sellers can take it down fast, they are going to try again, and likely to break through the next time.

Breaking into prior balance is simply a test -- that's why so many people get screwed when they sell resistance and buy support--because it's just a test, and has little to do with value and acceptance. At the time you shorted, 53.25 was still the most fair price, and only 51 had really received much attention in the lower half of the range. If the market breaks 2 ticks below a prior low and then goes up strongly, it is usually more bullish than if it had not broken the low at all. The market had a shot, couldn't do much with it, so now buyers have more confidence, knowing that sellers had a great shot and could do nothing with it. Wait until your opponent is worn down, and then go for the kill; not when they are still fighting strong.

BTW, check out the afternoon action, and you see 51 hold on the test this afternoon. Below that would have been a warning sign, but there needed to be a venture below this morning to confirm the level of selling interest, whereas now it is not necessary to go below it, only to it.



Profiler View Post
3. Long 1553.25 vwap/ prior vpoc on 3.25 pt move.

FWIW I probably would have taken that long if I had still been trading at that time, but it's hard to say for sure since I didn't see it actually happen. To me this is your best trade today, even though it didn't work out.

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  #220 (permalink)
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All time frames are trending higher.



I don't think I have any particularly valuable insight to share from the composite. ES is slowly but steadily auctioning north as evidenced by successively higher vpoc migration. A mere 3 weeks ago the ES traded almost 80 pts lower. There are definitely some spots that could use some re-visiting (1535.25, gap zone, 1511.5...) but thats not for me to decide when. Perhaps this weekend's Cyprus news will have some collateral damage and introduce some volatility into the mix. For now, up is still the way...until its not.

The Struggle
Trading is hard. I remember how I felt in 2003 when I started learning how to be a scalper. I remember the feelings of utter confusion and frustration and depression over losing money literally every day. Feeling like I will never get it. To top it off I was not getting paid- my company hired me strictly on a split of profits basis (and a crappy one at that) in exchange for backing me. We traded a german market and that meant a 2am start time which fucking sucked! Imagine having to get up at 115am in the middle of winter in chicago and trudge through freezing wind/snow while walking to the red line and get on with all types of shady people. Imagine waking up at 5pm and thinking its 5am because either way its pitch dark during winter and wigging out that you missed 3 hours of work and you might be fired and you wonder why nobody is picking up the phone in the office when you call to try and explain why you aren't there. I remember it being horrible but I persisted and soon enough instead of all red days, there were some green ones and then some time after that it went to mostly green and finally basically only green. I had my first profitable month after 5 months of trading.

I have now been trading the ES live for almost 6 months. I still trade 1 lots and I still lose money, on average, though very little. This feels way harder than it was last time even though I dont have to get up at 115am and I do have other sources of income. I honestly expected to be trading 2 or 3 lots by now and making a little bit of money. I don't feel like I am making that much progress. Figuring this out has been on my mind almost 24-7 since I started. I wake up at 5am because it bothers me I have not made sense of this yet. I can go out to dinner with friends and be engaged in conversation but I'm thinking about the ES in the back of my head and my failure thus far is eating me up. I will persist. I will figure this out. I have committed myself to do whatever it takes and a truly committed person can not be stopped. The next few months or more are really going to suck- maybe even worse than it has already been. But I look back on overcoming my prior struggle as one of the high points of my life. I plan on doing the same for this period.

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  #221 (permalink)
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Profiler View Post
I have now been trading the ES live for almost 6 months. I still trade 1 lots and I still lose money, on average, though very little. This feels way harder than it was last time even though I dont have to get up at 115am and I do have other sources of income. I honestly expected to be trading 2 or 3 lots by now and making a little bit of money. I don't feel like I am making that much progress. Figuring this out has been on my mind almost 24-7 since I started. I wake up at 5am because it bothers me I have not made sense of this yet. I can go out to dinner with friends and be engaged in conversation but I'm thinking about the ES in the back of my head and my failure thus far is eating me up. I will persist. I will figure this out. I have committed myself to do whatever it takes and a truly committed person can not be stopped. The next few months or more are really going to suck- maybe even worse than it has already been. But I look back on overcoming my prior struggle as one of the high points of my life. I plan on doing the same for this period.

Profiler, I applaud your commitment to success, both in the past and the present. Six months is really not that long to expect yourself to be not only breakeven but making money and upping your size on the ES, without some serious tutelage or mentorship. I know all too well the feelings and scenarios you expressed above. Keep at it (but please, try not to think about ES when out with friends at dinner if possible), and remember that "figuring it out" is a process, and is not something that happens all at once; so celebrate the small wins.

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  #222 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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Economic data: none

ON Profile: We have a big gap down on heavy volume (420k) along with a big range (14.5 pts). The hi is one tick below the 1544.25 CHVN and the low is 1529.5 for some reason. There is a double bottom at the low but otherwise it looks like a strong low on the profile. Vpoc is sitting at 1538.5. ES is currently trading above the vpoc, some 12 handles off the low.



ES is headed for a gap down open. I am thinking its of the OAOR variety instead of OD. 1541.25 is the major CLVN in the area and could be the key to the day as it seperates 2 minor balance areas as shown on the pic below. I'm thinking initially the ES sells off on open, potentially down to the 1535.25 CHVN but then responsive buyers start to wade in and if successful through 1541.25 then to the other side of the balance area at 1548 and potentially finish with only a small loss on the day. Rejection at 1541.25 puts 1535.25 back on the table along with other side of balance at 1527.25 and of course the gap zone below it. Bigger picture, all time frames are pointing higher. ES has had quite a run over last 3 weeks so this might be just the excuse people were looking for to take some profits and add again later from lower levels. I think ES could trade as low as the 1460 level and still be in favor of the bulls.



Levels Above: 1541.25 CLVN*, 1544.25 CHVN/1545.25 LVN from 3-13*, 1548, 1549 mc vpoc, pLo**, 1551.25 CLVN, 1553.5 nvpoc

Levels Below: 1535.25 CHVN**, 1531.5 LVN from 3-5, 1529 LVN from 3-5, 1527.25-1521.25 gap zone

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR, sells off to 1535.25 to pick up buyers then rotates up to 1541.25, if accepted then targets 1548, if rejected back down to 1531 or lower.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAOR and pushes up to 1545.25 level and finds sellers that knock it down to 1535.25. If rejected, back up to 1541 and higher, if not search lower for buyers.

Hypo#3- ES opens OD. Go with!

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  #223 (permalink)
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1. Sold 1541.25 CLVN on 3.75 pt move after an OAOR open. Volume below 20d average so far. Breadth extremely negative as to be expected with such a gap down. Tick was negative, now mostly positive. Its gone 5 ticks against me pretty quickly and vpoc has shifted up above at 1541.75 as prices are being accepted above the CLVN. Stopped after 6 min and .5 MF.

2. Sold 1549 pLO/CHVN on 3 pt move up. 2nd vwap 2 ticks above which could provide more resistance Market has clearly been moving higher but not giving me a good entry long. Stopped after 2 minutes, clearly some stops were triggered. I faded and paid the price.

3. Sold 151.25 CLVN on 5.25 pt move. 2nd vwap right here too. Last fade of day for me here if it doesn't work. Well they took it 4 ticks in my face for the gap fill but it looks like an aggressive seller entered there and now back to entry. See if they can take it down more. Its gone 5 ticks in my favor now but 1550 will be difficult to get through as it has a lot of volume there. 15 min it has traded my exit price but only small (300). Scaled after 15 min and 1.0 MA. Second scale given.

4. Long 1549 on 3.25 pt pb. Vpoc has been established in prior range above at 1550 and buyers have controlled the day so looking for pLo to hold and move up into close. Negatives are fact that on prior move up the hi was only taken out by 1 tick. Waiting for a pullback to the 1547 vwap was tempting but I have been waiting for the vwap pb all day and no dice. Scaled after 12 min and .5 MA. No second.

5. Long 1544.75 (2 ticks below mid/VAL) on 4 pt move down. Selling definitely getting aggressive into the close and series of lower lows and lower highs in place. Quickly 4 ticks against me but then back to entry. Hmm. 15 min in and now 4 ticks in favor but then back to entry with 10 minutes to cash close. Gun to head I say this is a loser. Scaled after 21 min and 1.25 MA! Second scale given.




Recap
ES opened OAOR with a sizable gap to the downsize and responsive buyers took over quickly and auctioned it up through the key 1541.25 CLVN all the way to the other side of prior balance and into prior range where price was accepted for the better part of the afternoon until sellers emerged and knocked it back down into the 41-49 balance area where it closed. We end up with value and vpoc about 7 pts lower. Price also finished down about the same but well off the overnight lows. Volume was better than average at 1.65 mil but not exactly heavy. If you look at a 24 hr daily candle, we end up with long wicks both above and below. We now have 2 days in a row of lower vpoc and value which is of note. Sellers had the golden goose and fumbled it right from the opening bell- but I still give the bulls the victory today though.

My trading was garbage today. I faded a strong market on the way up and then bought it on the way down. I am lucky to escape green when it could have very easily been a limit down day. I'm not sure that my first trade was a bad idea. We had a big gap down and one should try and align themselves with the gap and the 1541.25 was a key level for a short if it was going to work. And the strength of the bulls wasn't readily apparent to me up to that point- they weren't super aggressive and volume was merely average. But they didn't allow any pullbacks. Not to the mid nor the vwap, it was a very stealthy strong auction, at least to my eyes. The IBLO had a double bottom which made me think a rotation back down was likely. It never came. I was desperate for a long in the mid 1540s area but I couldn't justify anything (because it didn't serve up an easy entry like a mid pb). Of course finally when I throw in the towel, when there is enough confirmation for me to sack up, its time for the bulls to take profits and sell to me. I guess the true strength of the market was evidenced by the fact that my longs gave me scales during the sell off.

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  #224 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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Economic data: housing starts/building permits

ON Profile: Choppy night last night leaves behind a blunt profile. There is a double top at the hi and a double bottom at the low. Prices only traded below yesterdays vpoc by 2 ticks while the upside was contained roughly by the VAH. Volume is slightly better than average at 175k and range is normal at 5.5 pts. Vpoc sitting at 1547.5 and price is currently above that. I would say nod to the bulls.



Yesterday was kind of a wild day (including globex) and with minimal economic data on tap today and tomorrow being FOMC day, I am anticipating a quiet, rotational day with an upside bias and OAIR open. I think todays key level will be the 1551.5 CLVN that separates the 41-49 balance area from the 53-57 balance. If the ES is accepted above that level, I see no reason why the all time highs at roughly 1559 can't be a reasonable target. If its rejected then that put the nvpoc at 45.75 on the table with potential to explore the lower end of that balance at 41. All time frames are pointing higher.

Levels Above: 1551.5 CLVN*, 1553.5 nvpoc, 1557.25 yr Hi, 1559 all time cash closing hi, 1570 all time cash hi

Levels Below: 1548 CLVN, 1545.75 nvpoc*, 1539.75 CLVN**, 1535.25 CHVN*

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR inside/at VAH and rotates lower to close nvpoc and pick up buyers where it grinds higher through the day.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR inside/at VAH and pushes higher but is rejected at 1551.5 CLVN then targets 1545.75 nvpoc and possibly lower to 1540.

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  #225 (permalink)
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1. Long 1550 on 1 pt pb from a triple top hi at 1551 that looks very poor-nonetheless, very aggressive entry by me. ES opened OAIR and rejected 1551 CLVN on open then moved lower to 1548 CLVN and rejected that and formed very poor hi above. 10 minutes in and its gone 3 ticks in my favor and 6 against but printed very small on my exit so I havent been stopped yet. Listless action and very poor volume so far. Stopped after 21 min and .75 MA.

2. Long 1545.75 nvpoc on 5.25 pt move down after it printed very weakly at the ONLO (193 only) and popped up 2 ticks quickly. Its gone 5 ticks against me and 3 for, now a tick in favor and vpoc has shifted to just below my entry which at least signals buyers are active here (along with sellers). Stopped after 16 mins and .75 MF.

3. Long 1541.25 key CLVN on 4.75 pt move. Very news-driven market right now but this is the bottom of the balance area and an important level from yesterday. Stopped after 2 min and .25 MA. Well that was a bust-continued lower for another 4 handles though so thank god for discipline.

4. Long 1535 CHVN on 4.5 pt move down- this level was fair value for the 3 day balance after the breakout above 1524. Really nasty selling based on cyprus so stepping into building burning as well as fading for 4th time today- not wise. Scaled after 2 min and .25 MA. Second scale given.

5. Sold 1538 on 4.75 pt move up. Truthfully I wanted to wait for the mid/LVN/CLVN up at 1541.5 but this rotation was nice and the tick spiked up to +800. Scaled after 5 min and .25 MA. Second scale given.

6. Sold 1541.5 mid/vwap/CLVN on 5.75 pt move on big news spike. Stopped after 30 seconds and .75 MA. Dang.

7. Sold 1453.5 prior intraday low/LVN on 3 pt move after getting stopped at 43 on my prior long. Scaled after 40 seconds and 1.0 MA. Second scale given.





Recap
ES opened innocently enough OAIR inside value with weak volume and an upward bias. A poor hi was in place but the ES struggled going higher and went lower in search of buyers. None were found until much lower as the ES fell out of the current balance area and drove all the way to the 1531.5 swing low from 3-5. Buyers were there and strongly bounced it up back thru the 41 level where it closed around 42. Wild day, big range, very heavy volume. Vpoc shifted 7 pts lower, value area shifted lower, no overlap whatsoever and price about 5 pts lower. We now have 3 days in a row of lower vpoc migration and value area. It would seem a test of the gap zone 1527.25-1521.25 is in order. Overall, the longer time frames are still bullish but maybe the daily time frame is turning bearish now.

My trading was shiite today. The whole problem was related to the poor hi put in at 1551- I was completely fixated on the market returning to that to clean it up. That combined with the fact that I was expecting a quiet rotational day led to me being caught completely off guard by this sell off even though my second hypothesis called for rejection at 1551 and exploration lower. So I ended up fading the damn thing 4 times in a row getting long and stopped out on first 3 while spoos were just getting crushed and down 19 handles. What a joke! I will say in spite of that, my winners all gave scales and had I been trading 2 lots I would have finished in the green today. I'm dead tired and tomorrow could be another wild day so time to rest up...

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  #226 (permalink)
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Economic data: FOMC

ON Profile: Last nights profile says "news" to me. Very wide range and heavy volume. Not sure why the low stopped where it did but the high failed 3 ticks ahead of the nvpoc at 1553.5 and only 1 ticked the hi from Monday. Vpoc sits at 1547.25 which is right around the distinct LVN from yesterday at 1547.75.



So the poor hi at 1551 I was fixated on yesterday gets taken out overnight... Normally on FOMC day I would expect a 5 handle rotational snoozer before the announcement but this cyprus story continues to make waves and anything is possible. I'm not ruling out another trip to low 1530s or a move up to new 5 year highs. I expect an OAIR above value and I expect responsive sellers will make the first push but after that is anyone's guess. I think yesterdays VAH/LVN at 1543.5 could provide enough confluence for a bounce. Two day mc vpoc is 1545.5 which also the vpoc of all trading since the breakout above 1524 so maybe, absent any news it goes to there and camps out for a few hours waiting for the fed. A peak above 1551.5 that gets accepted targets 1553.5 and then 1557 and above to breakout city. A move below 1541.25 brings 1338 and 1335 and below back into the picture.

Levels Above: 1551.5**, 1553.5 nvpoc, 1557.25 5 year hi, 1559 all time cash close hi, 1570 all time cash hi

Levels Below: 1547.75 CLVN/on vpoc/LVN, 1545.5 mc vpoc, 1543.5 LVN/pVAH, 1541.25 CLVN*, 1538 CHVN, 1535.25

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR above value and responsive sellers make first push lowerto pick up buyers around 1545.5 where it rotates until the fed. Fed whispers sweet nothings into markets ear and we push higher to new hi's.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR above value and buyers make push to 1551.5 CLVN and fail and sellers take control again like yesterday.

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  #227 (permalink)
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1. Long 1552.25 on potential OD after open 1 tick above pHi, 1 ticking lower and taking off. Stopped after 4 min and .75 MF. Well, I went for it and paid 6 ticks to find out if I was right. No regrets.

2. Long 1554 after ES broke out above IBHI then came back down to test 1553.5 and printed weakly (and not filling my 1553.25 bid) before moving back up. Christ, instantly 5 ticks against me. We have had a very rotational day which is typical on fomc days so theoretically should play outside in but now news is out was looking for continuation of upside. I must admit the hi does look nice. 10 minutes in and its gone 4 ticks in my favor and back to entry. All I can say is prices are being accepted higher, it seems but my trade location is horrible. Stopped after 21 min and 1.0 MF. Would have been winner had I waited for original entry...

3. Long 1550.25 vpoc at close. Ooops, scratch city.





Recap
ES opened a tick above yesterday's hi and it looked like we were off to the races. Enthusiasm lasted less than it took me to write this sentence and the next few hours were classic pre-fomc small range chop. Afterwards, an upside breakout occurred but that really got beat down quickly and spoos auctioned all the way to the lows in last 15 minutes of the day. Overall, we have value and vpoc much higher. Price finished higher but ultimately was rejected from the balance area above 1551.5 which I thought was interesting. Volume was ok at 1.4 mil.

I took 2 trades today and they were both losers. I'm fine with the first one. I took a shot at jumping onboard early on a trend day-didn't work. In the future trading multiple lots, all I need is to be right once to pay for a whole bunch of losers and then some. Second trade I screwed up due to impatience and I paid up, cost me getting a scale and turned into a loser.

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  #228 (permalink)
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Posts: 1,065 since Apr 2012

Just read your thread this afternoon.

First off. Great consistency. Great risk management. Great attitude. Great effort. You've got half the battle won in just those things. Seriously.

Here are some things I MOST HUMBLY see. Take what you will.

1. I'd like to know what timeframe you're looking at. (The chart you post daily with your markups)

In no specific order.

2. It looks like you take "blind trades" as I call them. You see a volume node or something that you think will be a game changer, and you are just limiting in there with (seemingly) no regard for anything else. I know FT talks about information risk vs price risk, and he would probably side "mostly" with you, but I think there needs to be a balance. Some confirmation. Not too much, not too little. We all have to find what that is for us. For me it's typically a candle close on my main timeframe, or a pattern-based entry on a lower timeframe.

3. WHERE IS THE TREND? Are you keenly aware of swing highs and swing lows throughout the day? This is what defines the trend for the day. I see time after time, we're printing higher highs and higher lows and you're fading the trend just because you have some CLVN up there... I'm not a profiler (just looking into it to add to my knowledge over the past few weeks). I am a pure price action guy, and I can help you in regards to that. I'm sure you know more about profiling than I do.

4. IMPOSING YOUR VIEW. It's like you think the market will/may come here and you have these standing limit orders in. All the while, if you learn to see what IT IS DOING there are a lot of other opportunities. It's like your imposing your view on the market as opposed to being in the "now moment opportunity flow" and taking what is given. Don't be too rigid in your expectations.

5. Holding winners longer? Probably a good idea. (looks like you may be doing the FT-inspired hard stops and targets though for +/-6, so I dunno).

6. Stalking trades and missing by a tick or no fill at the high/low tick. Why not be more flexibile? I'm telling you, no one is that good. Actually, it's not even a matter of being good. The markets are simply not that precise. We have to think in terms of AREAS to do business, not a single tick level.

7. Are you using multiple timeframes? I see you are looking at the daily's for levels and your composite profile.. but are you REALLY using (utilizing rather) multiple timeframes? This is made up of using the higher timeframe for major S/R levels (whether PA based or profile based) but then you use a trading timeframe to determine the trend WITHIN that larger context, and you're on high alert when price ENTERS AREAS that are important on the higher timeframe, then you can use a lower timeframe to really get a fine-tuned picture to what is happening to price within that area that you're interested in doing business and have a hypothesis about what can happen.

8. Also, being aware of rotations. If you get long after a 6pt rotation up... make sure to at least be aware of that fact. The key to success is fading a rotation on one timeframe which is in fact, putting you WITH the trend on another timeframe.

I just typed this all practically stream of consciousness, so forgive me if it's not legible and ask whatever you want to for clarification. Also, I can tend to sound harsh at times. I, in no way, want to sound harsh. I'm only offering a simple opinion and hope to help in some small way. It's all up to you anyways to succeed.

Most respectfully,

Merritt

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  #229 (permalink)
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indextrader7 View Post

1. I'd like to know what timeframe you're looking at. (The chart you post daily with your markups)

Well the chart i post in the afternoon is a 3 min but when i trade i am looking at a 2500V bar

2. It looks like you take "blind trades" as I call them. You see a volume node or something that you think will be a game changer, and you are just limiting in there with (seemingly) no regard for anything else. I know FT talks about information risk vs price risk, and he would probably side "mostly" with you, but I think there needs to be a balance. Some confirmation. Not too much, not too little. We all have to find what that is for us. For me it's typically a candle close on my main timeframe, or a pattern-based entry on a lower timeframe.

yup, most of my trades are blinds based off a CLVN or nvpoc or a ledge or a mid and I know thats not the way FT does it but ive been doing it just for the sake of being mechanical and limiting the variables so i can measure what went wrong as best i can

3. WHERE IS THE TREND? Are you keenly aware of swing highs and swing lows throughout the day? This is what defines the trend for the day. I see time after time, we're printing higher highs and higher lows and you're fading the trend just because you have some CLVN up there... I'm not a profiler (just looking into it to add to my knowledge over the past few weeks). I am a pure price action guy, and I can help you in regards to that. I'm sure you know more about profiling than I do.

in my prior life all i did was fade. and i recognize i fade too much but its the ol' "this thing wont give me a nice pb for a long" so i end up watching it go up 5 handles and then try a fade. its something i truly am trying to work on but im caught with feeling like i have to justify entry location with something, be it a clvn or vwap or whatever and most of the time when you need to hop on board it isnt available. i need to change that...

4. IMPOSING YOUR VIEW. It's like you think the market will/may come here and you have these standing limit orders in. All the while, if you learn to see what IT IS DOING there are a lot of other opportunities. It's like your imposing your view on the market as opposed to being in the "now moment opportunity flow" and taking what is given. Don't be too rigid in your expectations.

yeah, unfortunately the market doesnt bow down to me

5. Holding winners longer? Probably a good idea. (looks like you may be doing the FT-inspired hard stops and targets though for +/-6, so I dunno).

the plan is to let winners run when i trade multiple lots, for now as a 1 lot piker im just trying to figure out auction theory and where to get in.

6. Stalking trades and missing by a tick or no fill at the high/low tick. Why not be more flexibile? I'm telling you, no one is that good. Actually, it's not even a matter of being good. The markets are simply not that precise. We have to think in terms of AREAS to do business, not a single tick level.

again, just trying to be mechanical, i know this will have to change in the future

7. Are you using multiple timeframes? I see you are looking at the daily's for levels and your composite profile.. but are you REALLY using (utilizing rather) multiple timeframes? This is made up of using the higher timeframe for major S/R levels (whether PA based or profile based) but then you use a trading timeframe to determine the trend WITHIN that larger context, and you're on high alert when price ENTERS AREAS that are important on the higher timeframe, then you can use a lower timeframe to really get a fine-tuned picture to what is happening to price within that area that you're interested in doing business and have a hypothesis about what can happen.

i am- to the best of my ability. i will qualify that by saying my ability isnt very good.

8. Also, being aware of rotations. If you get long after a 6pt rotation up... make sure to at least be aware of that fact. The key to success is fading a rotation on one timeframe which is in fact, putting you WITH the trend on another timeframe.

im most definitely aware of rotations.
I just typed this all practically stream of consciousness, so forgive me if it's not legible and ask whatever you want to for clarification. Also, I can tend to sound harsh at times. I, in no way, want to sound harsh. I'm only offering a simple opinion and hope to help in some small way. It's all up to you anyways to succeed.

Most respectfully,

Merritt

loads of thanks for this, you really nailed my weakspots. feel free to post here anytime with suggestions. that goes to anyone and everyone as well.

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  #230 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 589 received

Economic Data: claims, home sales, philly fed, LEI

ON Profile: So yesterdays profile had an incomplete look to the downside and it appears the overnight session kind of filled that in. We have a 5.25 pt range on slightly higher than average volume thus far (191k). The hi is just 2 ticks above yesterdays vpoc and the low is 1 tick below the 1545.75 CHVN. Really nice reactions last night off the 1547.75 CLVN and 1545.75 CHVN, both would have given 2 scales at least and only 1 tick of heat with nice rotations into them. Overall shape is somewhat blocky.



A check of the composite shows some interesting things happening. Over the last few days the vpoc since the breakout has jumped around. Initially 1535.25 was the mc vpoc. Then after monday and tuesdays action it migrated higher to 1545.25 and finally after yesterday it has shifted up to 1550. So despite the recently volatility, value is shifting higher still.



Economic data out today could shake things up but I'm not expecting it. I think ES opens OAIR in-range, at or below value. Yesterday the market explored above the 1550 mc vpoc and was strongly rejected late in the day. I think today market checks below 1550 to search for buyers and I think they will be found. Overall, longer time frames are still very bullish. Daily time frame is balancing.

Levels Above: 1551.5 CLVN, 1553.5 CHVN, 1559 cash closing hi, 1570 all time cash hi

Levels Below: 1547.75 CLVN, 1545.5 CHVN/ONLO, 1543.5 3-19 LVN, 1541.25 CLVN**, 1538.5 CHVN, 1535.25 CHVN**

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR and pushes higher but fails at 1551.5 CLVN then moves lower looking for buyers, pausing at 1545.75 and turning up or continuing on.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and fails at 1547.75 CLVN/pLO and heads higher through the day.

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  #231 (permalink)
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1. Long 1545.5 mid/vwap on 2.5 pt move. Market open gap down and made weak effort at pushing lower and grinded up to pLo/CLVN. Major caveat to this trade is we are seeing strong reaction by sellers to the pLo/CLVN at 1548 and ES was unable to push even 1 tick into range. Stopped after 3 min and 0 MF.

2. Sold 1543.25 on 1.75 pt move off the low. Low looks poor-ish to me but it did occur at a known level and has a small print at exact tick. Overall, market started strong but then failed to break into prior range then came down to other side of balance. 1543.5 was an LVN from 3-19 that market bounced off on open this morning so I am selling it from a move below. Scaled after 21 min and .75 MA. No second scale.

3. Sold 1548.25 on 3 pt move and day so far looks balanced. This is second time up here and sellers were aggressive the first time. Scaled after 26 min and .75 MA. Second scale given.

4. Long 1538 nvpoc on 4.5pt move after it printed super small (44 lot) on tick below and popped up. Stopped after 2 min. Stopped to the tick on a weak print (168) and then instant spike up!




ES opened OAOR down about 6 handles and made no real push lower out of the gate so responsive buyers stepped in and auctioned it up to the pLo to the tick where it was confidently rejected. Rotation to other side of balance at 41 ensued then counter-rotation back to the high of the day. ES pushed a handle into prior range this time but go no further and while rejection was slower this time it definitely happened as ES sold off down to 1536.5 before aggressive buyers stepped in. At the end of day, we have lower value and lower vpoc. MC vpoc is maintained at 1550 though but its very close so I guess it doesn't really make a difference. Price closed down about 10 handles and outside if value which is interesting. Volume again decent at 1.58 mill but not crazy.

My first trade was horrible. I really don't know why I actually went through with it to be honest. I know why I did it but I am pissed I didnt give enough priority to the strong rejection at pLo to the tick. Next time. Second trade was somewhat risky and not sure if it was legit. Third trade I was thinking the day was looking pretty rotational and volume was weak and against the backdrop of the strong selling response the first time around that they might still be interested. It wasn't quick but it worked and trade location was great. My fourth trade, man that one stings. Normally I take those on first touch, blind, but today I actually held back and let it go through and with the super weak print a tick below and the extended rotation into it combined with a rotational looking day I went in. Unfortunately I got taken out. Work in progress...

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  #232 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
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Economic data: none

ON Profile: We had some range extension down below yesterdays lo but strong responsive buyers were found there and now we are comfortablly back inside pRange and near session hi's, possibly due to some news. We've got 8.75 pts of range and 180k of volume. A little backing and filling would turn profile shape into a perfect bell curve but for now we have a distinct LVN zone between 1540-1542. It seemed for much of the night upside was contained by yesterdays VAL but moments ago it broke through.



We have no economic data today (not until next tuesday for that matter) and a generally un-exciting overnight profile along with march madness going on- for which I will be ducking out early as well- so I am anticipating a slow, rotational session. Of course, anything could happen and cyprus could collapse into chaos on a moments notice and take spoos down with it. However, I am thinking maybe the 1540-47 balance area defines the range for today. We shall see. I expect an OAIR inside value. Longer time frames are still very bullish but daily time frame is balancing and possibly even slightly bearish.

Levels Above: 1545.5 CHVN, 1547.75 CLVN, 1549/1550 pHi/CHVN, 1551.5 CLVN, 1553.5 CHVN (WTF is up with these levels literally 2 pts apart, can they really be trusted???)

Levels Below: 1539.75 CLVN/LVN*, 1538 CHVN, 1535.25 CHVN/ONLO**, 1531.5 pLo/LVN from 3-5, 1527.25-21.25 gap zone**

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR inside value, pushes lower to 1540 CLVN/ON LVN/pVAL to pick up buyers and then grinds higher.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR inside value, rotates up to 1547.75/1549 pHi and stalls out then falls down to 1540, possibly lower.

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  #233 (permalink)
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1. Long 1547 mid on 2 pt move. Scratched after 2 min since i am walking out the door. We have a nice looking hi above at a known reference point which is a negative. However, on way down, it struggled at vpoc indicating buyers still found value there and buyers have controlled the day thus far so I am still going to give them the benefit of the doubt. Will report back later on whether it was a winner or not. Was a winner with only 2 ticks heat and a scale...



Recap
ES opened OAIR inside value and chopped around for the first 30 minutes before grinding higher through the day. Value and vpoc both shifted higher and price closed on highs, above value. Volume was ok at 1.33 mill. Very nice bell curved profile shape with extremely long tails. Cyprus news and UK downgrade aside, ES is once again within spitting distance of 5 year and all time highs.

I don't have much to say about yesterdays trading, or lack thereof. I wanted that first pb to mid around 945 because the market was looking strong and a poor-ish hi was in place but the cyprus news just slammed it down so fast I had to pull it. Cyprus news is getting tiresome and maybe I should have taken it but oh well. The one trade I did do...would have been a winner. I had to leave though. ES really bounced off the 1551.5 CLVN the first time around but then that ramp at the close took it up and back through it and into the upper balance area where it settled.

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  #234 (permalink)
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I think its easy to see that longer time frames are still very bullish. The day time frame is currently balancing and still respecting the gap zone of 1527.25 to 1521.25.



From the volume profiles, we can see that despite last weeks uptick in volatility, value has clearly shifted higher. Given that longer time frames are still very positive, I think its likely that the market continues to explore higher. Strong buying has been found in the lower 1530s but I can't say that selling above 1550 has been particularly aggressive yet. News out of europe or wherever could change the situation but for now it seems up is still the way.

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  #235 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
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Economic data: none

ON Profile: Last nights profile brought to you by the letter "P". We have a 12 pt range on decent volume (194k). Cyprus news sparked a rally and breakout to new 5 year hi's. Vpoc sitting at 1558.25 which is above this years regular session hi of 1557.25. Very thin stem and the vwap has been acting as support on the pullbacks.



We are headed for a gap up open, possibly at new 5 year hi's. I am expecting an OAOR but an OD in either direction is entirely possible as well. I expect responsive selling initially and the quality of that to determine the day. If they are unable to make a strong move and return it at least back to pHi then we have a potential strong up directional/trend day. However, if they can push it back into range and it is accepted there, then potential is for rotation all the way through it down to 1543. Longer time frames are very bullish. Daily time frame had been balancing but this could be a breakout from balance.

Levels Above: 1559 all time cash closing hi, 1570 all time cash hi

Levels Below: 1557.25 BAH, 1552.5 pHi/CLVN, 1550 mc vpoc, 1547.75 CLVN, 1542 nvpoc, 1540 CLVN/LVN 3-21**

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR and responsive sellers push first but fail around/before pHi and buyers step in and grind it higher thru the day.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAOR and buyers fail early allowing sellers to push into pRange where it is accepted allowing sellers to take control and push it to 1550 and below to possibly 1540.

Hypo#3- ES opens OD. Go with!

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  #236 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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1. Long 1556.25 mid/vwap on 2.25 pt pb. Very poor hi in place, bullish albeit slow action from open as gap up held and prior range not touched. Stopped after 2 min and 0 MF. That sucked.

2. Long 1550 mc vpoc on 5 pt move down, really nasty selling going on. Why did I take this long? I should be looking for a short I think. Trying to scratch. Ok out after 2 min and .75 MA vs .25 MF. Would have been loser.

3. Sold 1547.25 on 2,75 pt move up. Very weak print on the touch at 1547.75 CLVN so I sold here. Very strong move down today so far and I have been unable to get in on the short side so I waited for a 3 pt move up or so to enter which prolly means the downside is over. The low below does look decent. 1st vwap is also right here and has been acting as a decent sell pt thus far. Stopped after 11 min and .75 MF.

4. Long 1540 CLVN on 2.5 pt move down after it printed the gap close weakly and bounced it up. 2nd vwap 2 ticks below for possible support. This is the bottom of the balance area from 40-51.5 so looking for a reaction here. Dang, 4 ticks in my face right quick. Now 4 in favor, this thing buckin like a bronco. Scaled after 12 min and 1.0 mA. Second scale given.

5. Sold 1543.75 prior intraday low/ledge/1st vwap on 4.5 pt move. So we have a nice reaction off the low from a known level which works against this trade but overall today sellers have been in control and this is a nice rotation to sell. Tick popped to over 800 on this, maybe due to late shorts getting squeezed? See if it works. Scaled after 5 min and .25 MA. No second scale though...

6. Sold 1547 vpoc on 5.5 pt move. There must be some news out. Damn, tried scratching and reloading at mid 1548.5 but missed it. Stopped after 6 min and .5 MF.




Recap
ES opened OAOR on a gap up and made new 5 year hi's but ran out of buyers. Market fell back into prior range and the rout was on. Buyers were found at the key 1540 CLVN. Overall value shifted lower as did vpoc but only by 1.5 pts. Todays action shifts the mc vpoc back down to 1545.5 from 1550. Price closed 5 pts lower inside value on heavy volume of 1.97 mill. At one point it looked like the market would absolutely fall apart but buyers came in once again.

Tough day of trading. Once again I became fixated on a very poor hi. I think me and the whole S5 chat room got long the mid on the first pullback from the hi's which made me wonder if it was destined to fail. Once it entered into prior range I was jones'in for a short at pHi but it never came back. So frustrating. I didn't try my first short until spoos had already sold off 15 handles. And then I tried two more after the bottom was in and the context changed to bullish. Serenity now!

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  #237 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
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Economic data: durable goods, consumer confidence, home sales

ON Profile: Small 4.75 pt range overnight along with moderate volume (172k). The low is yesterdays vpoc to the tick and the hi is the 1551.5 CLVN to the tick. Vpoc sitting at 1549.75. Shape is somewhat balanced but looks incomplete to the upside.



We have some important data out today that could change things. For all the volatility and volume yesterday and the ES down 20 pts from peak to trough at one point, net change on day was only down 5 and it closed inside value. I think that is a win for the bulls. As it stands, I'm looking for an OAIR inside value and a rotational day. Yesterday's profile was very poorly auctioned between 1549 and 1557 and a very poor hi was left behind so I am inclined to believe the most likely thing to happen today is the ES re-auctions that area. Longer time frames are decidedly bullish while the short time frame is balancing.

Levels Above: 1551.5 CLVN/ONHI, 1553.5 CHVN/MP single, 1558.5 pHI/all time cash close hi, 1570 all time cash hi

Levels Below: 1547 nvpoc/CLVN, 1545.5 chvn, 1540 CLVN*, 1535.25 CHVN**

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR and chops around waiting for 9am numbers after which it rejects from 1547 area and pushes higher, finding resistance near 1554 then pHi.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and chops, finds rejection at 1551.5 or 1554 and rotates lower to find buyers, potentially near 1540 again.

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  #238 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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1. Long 1553.5 vwap/mid on 2.25 pt pb from a very poor hi with over 7200 at top tick. Horrible flashback from yesterdays trade entering my mind. We had an OAIR above value that held the 1551.5 key CLVN from above twice. Even poor 9am numbers were unable to take it out by a tick. Volume is lackluster thus far. 5 min in and over 10k traded at entry but only 200 a tick below and vpoc has shifted to me. Not the reaction I was hoping for. Scaled after 14 min and .25 MA. Second scale given.

2. Sold 1555.75 2nd vwap on 4.5 pt move on very balanced day. Ok new type of trade for me, just trying to play the balance. Really would have rather played it from long side given my bias though. 25 min in and its gone 3 ticks against and then come all the way to my exit but traded only 41 while some icerberg bid has bot over 5000 the tick above- super annoying. If this thing goes back to entry I will scratch it. Scratched after 41 minutes and 1.5 MF. Would have been loser.






Recap
ES opened OAIR above value and just rotated the majority of the day. There was never any serious attempt to get back into prior days value area. Late day levitation took the ES to new 5 year hi's. Value shifted higher, vpoc shifted higher. Price closed higher, above value but on poor volume (1.27 mill) and managed to poke 1 tick above yesterdays very poor hi. ES is now at the top of the balance area and filled in yesterdays thin area.

Not much to say about my trades today. I think both had edge. I should have taken more to experiment with tight balance days like today. That buy at 1551.75 I did not do gets my goat. I had the mouse hovered over 1551.5 and it was offered for like a minute but I just couldnt pull the trigger. So thats why I took the short just because I had to sack up and do it. Not much changes on the composite after today. The CHVN at 1553.5 gets a little more prominent. The poor hi from yesterday looks even poorer after today. Maybe tomorrow we can open with a gap up and OD higher on big volume?

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  #239 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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Economic data: homes

ON Profile: I was anticipating an open out of range today but not to the downside! ES traded in a tight range the majority of the night, popped above yesterdays hi and went to the same 1560.5 it printed 2 nights ago where sellers stepped in and lowered the boom. The low currently stands at 1548, a tick above the 1547.75 CLVN. Vpoc is sitting right at the 1551.5 CLVN that was key yesterday. Volume above average at 262k. The ON range is engulfing yesterdays RTH session. Profile shape is double distribution with a large LVN zone seperating the two areas and a minor bump in the middle at yesterdays vpoc.



The action overnight has thrown me for a loop. We have two very poor hi's around 1558.5 in the RTH session and two probes above that level in globex that have invited aggressive sellers. Last time it probed above and failed it had to go down to 1540 to find buyers who then promptly rallied it back up. Yesterday below 1551.5 was deemed unfair and now we are possibly set to open below it. I think the key for today is the 1551.5 level again. If prices below are deemed unfair and ES is auctioned back into yesterdays range and finds acceptance, new highs beckon. If not, then I look to see 1540's again and possibly lower. Potentially a really interesting day on tap. Given that longer time frames are still decidedly bullish and that we don't have an excess rejection during RTH, I think ES is accepted back into range and works its way back up to new hi's.

Levels Above: 1551.5 CLVN**, 1553.5 nvpoc/CHVN, 1558.75 pHi/1559 all time cash closing hi, 1570 all time cash hi

Levels Below: 1547.75 CLVN/ONLO*/1547 nvpoc, 1545.5 CHVN, 1540 CLVN**, 1535.25 CHVN

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR/OAIR below value, probes lower to 1547 area to pick up buyers who auction it up to 1551.5 area, if accepted new 5 yr highs targetted, if not, down to 1540.

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR/OAIR and pushes up to 1553.5 nvpoc and finds rejection and sellers auction it lower to 1540 area to find buyers.

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  #240 (permalink)
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1. Sold 1556.5 LVN from yesterday on 4.75 pt move with 2nd vwap a tick above. Direction is obviously up today making this a fade but the rotation is good, daily range is over 10 pts so far and 2nd vwap is right there so I put it on. Scaled after 11 min and .25 MA. No second scale.




Recap
ES opened OAOR with a big downside gap and it became apparent pretty quickly sellers had nothing left to give and the ES grinded its way higher through the day. Value put in a bullish engulfing day, vpoc shifted up a few points and price closed near upper end of range. Volume was pretty weak at 1.2 mill. On the compisite, the vpoc shifts up slightly higher from 1545.5 to 1548.5. 1551.5 continues to be an important CLVN and the 1558.5 level continues to shut off buyers as 3 days in a row we have the day hi within a tick of it. Just another day hanging out in balance for ES.

I was unable to trade for the majority of the day due to other stuff going on. However, I was around in the morning and wanted to take a few of those longs i posted on the chart but pussed out. Waiting for confirmation...sack up man!

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  #241 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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Economic data: claims, GDP, PMI

ON Profile: ES sold off early based on potential Cyprus drama but apparently nothing happened is now back on hi's right at the 1558.5 level that has acted as resistance 3 days in a row now. The low is 1549.75 which is an LVN from yesterday so they were able to take it beneath the 1551.5 CLVN that has been key lately but not for long. Vpoc sitting at 1558.25, just 3 ticks off the hi which usually means a pretty poor hi is in place. Volume is good at 221K. Overall shape is blocky indicating nobody really knew how to price the headline risk.



How many times will sellers continue to step in at 1558.5? ES has been balancing between 1535 and 1558 for 3 weeks now and are poised to open right at the top of the balance area which leads me to believe a potentially strong upside breakout is in the cards today. PMI is an important number that could propel this move. Additionally, today is the last day of the month which could produce wild action at the close, especially ahead of a 3 day weekend. My expectation is for a probe above balance, potentially even an OD. If this probe is accepted with heavy volume, potential strong trend up day as it is with longer term time frames. However, if its a weak probe not supported by volume/breadth etc and is rejected back into balance, the bottom could fall out.

Levels Above: 1558.5 triple top, 1570 all time cash hi

Levels Below: 1556.5 nvpoc, 1553.5 CHVN, 1551.5 CLVN*, 1549.75 LVN/ONLO, 1545.5 CHVN, 1540 CLVN**

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR/OAOR pushes lower to 1546.5 nvpoc then buyers step in aggressively to push it above balance area hi. If accepted, potential trend up day, if rejected back into prior range, sell!

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR/OAOR and pushes through hi's only to fail and have aggressive sellers step in and auction it lower targeting 1551.5 first then 1540.

Hypo#3- ES opens OD up, go with!

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  #242 (permalink)
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1. Long 1558- ES opened at and immediately rejected yesterday vpoc and pushed higher. Pulled back to 1557 then rallied a bit and it seemed buyers were absorbing at 1558 so I jumped in. ONHI at 1559 above which is a good target. Goes to my target basically instantly and prints over 500 but not filled and now back to a tick above entry. Stopped after 7 min and 1.5 MF, damn.

2. Short 1561.5 after pop to 1562.5 and strong selling response. WTF, I dont want to be short here. Scratched immediately. Would have been winner.

3. Long 1560.75 1st vwap on 1.25 pt pb. Tons of volume printed here, lots of absorption by buyers and it finally gave way but only printed 1560 low weakly then popped up so i got long. I can see a trip down to mid at 1558.75 though which would be nice confluence with prior BAH. Dang, stopped after 6 min and 0 MF. Bad trade, too aggressive considering current hi only 1 ticked previous hi and amount of volume printed at entry.

4. Long 1558.75 mid on 2.75 pt move about 10 mins after I was stopped on prior long. If this mid fails the whole day context changes and we have a potential failed breakout on our hands. Scaled after 20 min and .5 MA. Second scale given (after about 2 hrs).





Recap
ES opened OAIR and immediately pushed above the recent triple top at 1558.5 but fell back into range prior to a bad PMI number. Buyers quickly found their footing though and grinded it back up through the hi's and above the recent globex 1560.5 double top which caused a stop run. An early afternoon dip to the mid was bought and auctioned higher into the close. Value shifted completely higher, vpoc moved up about 5 pts. Price closed at the hi, above value. Volume was pretty garbage, were it not for the 200k that printed in final minutes thanks to end of month games this breakout would have been made on absolutely pathetic volume. For now, the breakout stands and people have four days to think about what they want to do and with all time hi's just ~6 pts away it would be a real surprise to not see that get taken out.

I made some bad decisions today. First trade, I am ok with it. It was aggressive but we had a unique opening with lots of potential energy so I went with it, almost got my scale too. Im pissed I did not get long at either 1555 or 1557 as I saw lots of absorption. My first sale was wack. It would have been a winner actually but I still don't like it and am glad I scratched it. Sometimes at tops or bottoms I notice a very strong response where I know thats it and I thought I saw it here but after thinking about it I did not, but it was close. My third trade again was aggressive but a poor decision, way too much volume had printed around 1560.75 and the time of day plus the attraction of mid/pHi below should have told me to back off. I am glad I re-longed it again though at the mid because that trade with multiple lots was awesome. I need more awesome trades...

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  #243 (permalink)
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2. Short 1561.5 after pop to 1562.5 and strong selling response. WTF, I dont want to be short here. Scratched immediately. Would have been winner.


LMAO! I know the feeling effin funny to read maybe just caught me off guard. :hehehe

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  #244 (permalink)
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Longer term time frames are still wildly bullish. Daily time frame was balancing until yesterdays session which broke higher and closed above balance, at the hi. Volume was nothing to write home about though and we will have to see if this break holds and the daily time frame can transition from balanced to bullish leading to all time frames being bullish.




From the composite, we can see the break above balance. A failure to hold this breakout will target 1553.5 and then the mc vpoc of 1548.75. To the upside, the last remaining reference point we have is ~1570 which correlates to the all time cash hi. It certainly would seem likely the market tags it and takes a peak above to see if there is more business to be done up there.

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  #245 (permalink)
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Economic data: ISM, construction

ON Profile: We have a tight 4.75 pt range on very light volume (58K) as it is a holiday in europe today so not much going on last night. I think the main takeaways from the session are that the low, while poor, held above the prior balance area hi which keeps the breakout intact but also that the hi is below pHi so its an inside day so far. Vpoc sitting at 1560.25.



Looking ahead this week we have the non-farms data on friday which will be the focal point. Economic data out at 9 today could make some noise but I doubt it. I am expecting an OAIR quiet rotational day today. I think the main key will be if yesterdays breakout is respected- can the ES stay above ~1558.5? If so, then the levitation towards 1570 all time hi is expected, if not then we have a potential failed breakout on our hands and we look down to 1553.5 CHVN first then 1548.5 mc vpoc.

Levels Above: 1570 all time cash hi

Levels Below: 1558.5 BAH**, 1553.5 CHVN, 1551.5 CLVN*, 1548.5 mc vpoc**, 1540 CLVN**

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR and rotates down to 1558.5 BAH to pick up buyers then grinds higher in an excruciatingly slow day.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and pushes above pHi but fails then looks lower to 1558.5 and possibly lower if it is accepted back inside prior balance.

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  #246 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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1. Long 1553.5 CHVN on 7.75 pt move. I took this on a blind long given the magnitude of the move even though this is a fade trade on a day controlled by sellers. Really would like a push up to IBLO to get short there. Scaled after 7 min and .25 MA. Second scale given.

2. Sold 1557.75 vwap/IBLO on 1.5pt move. So i passed on the first move up to here because I thought it might get to mid then didn't get filled on way down. Took short on second time up on poor rotation, risky but it seems to have some good things working for it: prior balance area hi at 1558.5 stopped the last move up and vpoc below at 1555 and sellers in control today, though its been balancing for the last few hours. Scaled after 17 min and .25 MA. Second scale given.





Recap
ES opened OAIR inside value and pushed higher for a peak above pHi but only got 2 ticks inviting sellers to come in and auction it lower. A poor ISM spiked it lower and the ES moved lower to find buyers and found them at 1553.5 CHVN. Sellers were able to hold it back within prior balance area for the duration of the day. Value shifted completely lower along with vpoc. Price closed lower. Volume was very poor at just over a mill. So we find ourselves back in prior balance area with a potential failed breakout...cause for concern? As of now I say no, buyers are still in control and if sellers were serious today we would not have balanced the rest of the day after 10am.

Im satisfied with my trading today but could have done waaay better. Disappointed I missed the short from 1564.5 after it 2 ticked the pHi and I had my mouse ready to wack it but the ISM out shortly gave me pause as I didn't want to jump in close to the release. It was the trade of the day though for sure... I missed another potential long at 1558.5 prior balance area hi right after the number which would have given two scales but again, bad number didn't want to jump. Vwap was holding a lid on any bounce today and you could have sold it like 3-4 times and taken max 3 ticks heat.

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  #247 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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Economic data: factory orders

ON Profile: I wasn't expecting to see this profile when I woke up. ES rallied quite a bit overnight then settled into a range between 62.5 and 63.25 for the last few hours. I can't see any particular reason why the hi and low are where they are other than so far its an inside day compared to yesterdays session. Volume is above average at 218k but nothing excessive.



ES is now trading back above the prior balance area high of 1558.5 after being rejected from it yesterday. I am anticipating an OAIR above value with responsive sellers making a push back towards yesterdays value area. 1558.5 will be a potential roadblock, if that fails then ES targets 1555 nvpoc then other side of balance at 1551.5. If 1558.5 holds then new highs are targeted.

Levels Above: 1565 pHi, 1570 all time cash hi

Levels Below: 1558.5 BAH/CLVN*, 1555 nvpoc/1553.5CHVN, 1551.5 CLVN**, 1548.5 CHVN*, 1540 CLVN***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR above value and responsive sellers auction it lower to 1558.5/1557, if it holds then 1565 targeted, otherwise 1555 then 1551.5 are targets.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR above value and pushes higher but again fails near 1565 and sellers auction it down/thru pLo.

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  #248 (permalink)
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1. Sold 1563.5 on 2pt move after ONHI was only 1 ticked with weak print and expecting responsive sellers to enter (though I expected them to enter earlier on open...). Potential negative is that my stop puts it right at yesterdays hi to the tick which could easily be a magnet. Its gone 4 ticks in my favor almost instantly but now 2 ticks against and a poor hi is forming. Stopped after 15 min and 1 MF.

2. Long 1564.5 vwap, tried pulling order got filled. Scratched instantly. The reason I had the bid here is because market looks strong and I am looking for the vwap to act as support again. Would have been winner...

3. Long 1565.5 vwap on 2 pt pb and a small print on the tick below and what looked like buying absorption at 65.5 and 65.75. The day has been controlled by bulls but the last 2 hours have been dead and balancing and they have not made any more progress. Nevertheless, there is a poor hi above and vwap has held today each time and below is 1565 pHi which might provide support and 1564.5 mid which might as well. 40 min in and its gone 2 ticks against (buyers holding up 1565 pHi) and 6 ticks in my favor but only printed my exit weakly. Massive iceberg buyer of over 8000 at 66 just now and if I cant get a fill off a bounce on that I am toast I think. Took a partial profit at 66 for 2 ticks after 57 minutes...just didnt like this trade. Would have been a loser.

4. Sold 1563.25 on 1.25 pt move off bottom. Man horrible trade location but I didn't get filled on the re-trace to the mid and ended up chasing. Instantly 4 ticks against me. Come back and gone to my exit price and 474 print, no fill. Scratched after 30 min. Would have been a winner.




Recap
ES opened OAIR/ORR and moved higher thru pHi and to new 5 year hi's but were unable to make any progress after 10am. After balancing for a few hours longs were forced to puke after sellers managed to take it thru the mid. On the brink of a total collapse buyers stepped in and auctioned it back into the value area on the close. Value shifted higher along with vpoc. Price closed inside value and below pHi. Volume was nothing special at 1.35 mill. The profile's shape doesnt really give the feeling that traders know what the ES is worth now, ie vpoc doesnt really stick out like a sore thumb. From 63-67 prices are pretty equally fairly accepted (1565s not included).

Man I traded like a donkey today. I was fixated on responsive sellers coming in off the open but they didn't show. My scratches were just garbage. Let the trades work even if they are/will be wrong! I was just rattled today overall and had no confidence. Sigh.

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  #249 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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Economic data: ADP, ISM

ON Profile: Tight, low volume 4 pt range so far. The upside is contained by pHi and the low stopped 2 ticks short of the VAL. Profile is mostly bell-shaped with vpoc right at 65.5. Market apparently waiting for the ADP report or ISM.



ES continues to be unable to attract serious, aggressive sellers. Yesterdays late afternoon sell off appeared to be a case of late longs not getting paid and being forced to puke once the contract auctioned below the mid. Of course buyers were there to relieve them of their pain and auction it back up. A poor-ish hi was left in place from yesterday and the ES is currently sitting just a few handles below it. Barring a calamitous ADP or ISM, which IS possible, I think the poor hi gets repaied and new all time cash hi's are on tap for today. I am expecting an OAIR inside value open with a small push lower that buyers jump on and grind higher through the day.

Levels Above: 1568 pHi, 1570 all time hi

Levels Below: 1565 LVN, 1562.75 CHVN*, 1558.5 CLVN**, 1553.75 CHVN, 1551.5 CLVN**

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR inside value and chops for 30 minutes before ISM with a push lower to 1562.75 CHVN that buyers grab on to and auction higher up to and thru all time hi. Re-entry into pRange opens door for downside.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR inside value and pushes higher thru pHi and fails, on its own or due to ISM and sellers auction it lower to 1562.75 and then 1558.5. If that level can't hold then 1553.75 and 1551.5 are on the table.

EDIT: I think its possible once new all time hi's are made, some serious profit taking could be in store. Will keep my mind open to the possibility so I am not caught flat footed on a reversal.

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  #250 (permalink)
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1. Long 1561.75 on 4.5 pt move. Wanted long at 1562.75 CHVN but lots of volume traded at 1563 so I figured more downside was in cards. Saw some absorption at 1562 then weak print at 1561.5. Stopped after 10 min and .75 MF. Profile looking trend-ish down.

2. Sold 1559 pLo on 1.75 pt move up. Very poor low in place with a triple bottom and almost 8k on bottom tick. I was unfilled on first attempt up here and this is third attempt which sucks. This could easily rip in my face. Vpoc shift to 1558.25, is that bad? Man lots of swirling context in this trade. Scaled after 15 min and .5 MA. Second scale given.

3. Long 1553.5 CHVN/2nd vwap on 5.75 pt move down. I took this on a blind given confluence of factors. As I look at the vwap, I take it back as an additive factor as it has just stair-stepped down with the ES as opposed to it being far away and ES swoons to it. Pretty quickly 6 ticks in favor and over 500 print my exit but no fill. Now back to entry . Scaled after 12 min and .25 MA. Second scale given.

4. Long 1552.25 after 1551.5 CLVN held on second test with weak print. Dang, instantly 5 ticks against me. Just looked at MP chart and market is still one timing down... Stopped after 12 min and .5MF, did a manual stop and screwed myself with a 9 tick loser, 3 ticks slippage.

5. Sold 1550.75 on 3 pt move up. I was cued at 1551.5 CLVN but only 75 printed there and ended up moving my order down 3 times. 1st vwap is here too to provide possible resistance. Lots of size was chewed through on the offer to get up here. Man this is annoying, its gone 5 ticks against me then 6 ticks my way and printed my exit 5 times but weakly and no fill, getting worried. And as soon as I write that I get filled after 31 min and 1.25 MA. Second scale given.

6. Sold 1548.75 1st vwap on 4.75 pt move. Ok this could be a stupid trade but its a big rotation and trend day down. Time of day is bad (245) and it looks super news-y with a strong reaction off the low. Stopped after 3min and .5 MF. Oh well. Done for the day.




Recap
ES opened OAIR inside value and trended lower all day save for a bounce off the low. There is no value area (meaningful at least) but vpoc shifted down to 1548.75, a healthy 18 pt move down. Price closed right at vpoc. Volume was heavy at 2.04 mill but I don't think it is insane volume. So we have a dramatic big red candle on the daily chart and we are now firmly back in the 1540-1551.5 balance area. Might we finally test the gap zone of 1527-1521 soon?

I made some bad trades today but I also made some good ones and even though I finished down, it was small and if I was trading 2 lots, all my winners would have given second scales and therefore I would have been positive. FT71 made mention that many people in brokerage were violating their risk parameters and getting crushed. I know what thats like all too well and it sucks. If you aren't on the right side of a day like today, no risk control can ruin your month or worse, blow you out. On my losers I could feel myself saying "watch me get stopped right at the exact bottom only to watch it reverse and make new all time hi's" but look back on my chart and see how much more the market fell after I was stopped. So keep risk controlled! And I say this knowing that I too will lose my discipline one day and get "got", I just need to make sure it is manageable.

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  #251 (permalink)
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1. Long 1561.75 on 4.5 pt move. Wanted long at 1562.75 CHVN but lots of volume traded at 1563 so I figured more downside was in cards. Saw some absorption at 1562 then weak print at 1561.5. Stopped after 10 min and .75 MF. Profile looking trend-ish down.

2. Sold 1559 pLo on 1.75 pt move up. Very poor low in place with a triple bottom and almost 8k on bottom tick. I was unfilled on first attempt up here and this is third attempt which sucks. This could easily rip in my face. Vpoc shift to 1558.25, is that bad? Man lots of swirling context in this trade. Scaled after 15 min and .5 MA. Second scale given.

3. Long 1553.5 CHVN/2nd vwap on 5.75 pt move down. I took this on a blind given confluence of factors. As I look at the vwap, I take it back as an additive factor as it has just stair-stepped down with the ES as opposed to it being far away and ES swoons to it. Pretty quickly 6 ticks in favor and over 500 print my exit but no fill. Now back to entry . Scaled after 12 min and .25 MA. Second scale given.

4. Long 1552.25 after 1551.5 CLVN held on second test with weak print. Dang, instantly 5 ticks against me. Just looked at MP chart and market is still one timing down... Stopped after 12 min and .5MF, did a manual stop and screwed myself with a 9 tick loser, 3 ticks slippage.

5. Sold 1550.75 on 3 pt move up. I was cued at 1551.5 CLVN but only 75 printed there and ended up moving my order down 3 times. 1st vwap is here too to provide possible resistance. Lots of size was chewed through on the offer to get up here. Man this is annoying, its gone 5 ticks against me then 6 ticks my way and printed my exit 5 times but weakly and no fill, getting worried. And as soon as I write that I get filled after 31 min and 1.25 MA. Second scale given.

6. Sold 1548.75 1st vwap on 4.75 pt move. Ok this could be a stupid trade but its a big rotation and trend day down. Time of day is bad (245) and it looks super news-y with a strong reaction off the low. Stopped after 3min and .5 MF. Oh well. Done for the day.




Recap
ES opened OAIR inside value and trended lower all day save for a bounce off the low. There is no value area (meaningful at least) but vpoc shifted down to 1548.75, a healthy 18 pt move down. Price closed right at vpoc. Volume was heavy at 2.04 mill but I don't think it is insane volume. So we have a dramatic big red candle on the daily chart and we are now firmly back in the 1540-1551.5 balance area. Might we finally test the gap zone of 1527-1521 soon?

I made some bad trades today but I also made some good ones and even though I finished down, it was small and if I was trading 2 lots, all my winners would have given second scales and therefore I would have been positive. FT71 made mention that many people in brokerage were violating their risk parameters and getting crushed. I know what thats like all too well and it sucks. If you aren't on the right side of a day like today, no risk control can ruin your month or worse, blow you out. On my losers I could feel myself saying "watch me get stopped right at the exact bottom only to watch it reverse and make new all time hi's" but look back on my chart and see how much more the market fell after I was stopped. So keep risk controlled! And I say this knowing that I too will lose my discipline one day and get "got", I just need to make sure it is manageable.

That's a good result considering the trend down day in the context of a bull market. The challenge with days like today is firstly recognizing there was a change in sentiment and secondly accepting the change in sentiment. It's easy for traders to get complacent when all we see is every pullback aggressively rejected with buyers stepping in at every opportunity no matter how bad the news.

Then one day buying the pullback doesn't work so you try 9 more times with the same result wiping out all the gains for week. I think that's where even the basics of volume profile help considerably. It's certainly helped me accept the change in sentiment I'm seeing right before my eyes.

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  #252 (permalink)
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I follow your thread religiously - I am sure you arent feeling good about your trading today. In case you didnt read it yourself after the end of the day Read your "hypo #2". You called it as it was today "before it happened" so how come a negative result ? I hope you do some good introspection 'cause I think this kind of day will be repeated within the next 2 weeks imho. I don't mean to belittle you just pointing the obvious as I have been in those shoes. I had to literally walk out of the trading room instead of "being smart once in trade" cause I tend to overthink once I am in it.

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  #253 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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garyboy275 View Post
I follow your thread religiously - I am sure you arent feeling good about your trading today. In case you didnt read it yourself after the end of the day Read your "hypo #2". You called it as it was today "before it happened" so how come a negative result ? I hope you do some good introspection 'cause I think this kind of day will be repeated within the next 2 weeks imho. I don't mean to belittle you just pointing the obvious as I have been in those shoes. I had to literally walk out of the trading room instead of "being smart once in trade" cause I tend to overthink once I am in it.

i really dont have a good answer for you- i kind of think i did follow the hypo#2 with the short at 1559 but then i also admittedly just forget about my plans sometimes when i get caught up in the market. mix in some low confidence and disbelief about whats happening/possible and i end up doing some boneheaded things. to be honest im not really disappointed with my pnl today, im actually pretty ok with it. i think a few months ago i would have been limit down so to basically be a scratch seems ok. i wonder if maybe i have an attitude problem. should i be pissed i didnt make cash today? am i being too easy on myself and demanding too little? i've been thinking about that a lot lately. because i am struggling, but maybe i am not struggling enough to get to the point that i need to get to really make this happen?

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  #254 (permalink)
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I used to rate myself totally on PnL basis but now I do it on how the market does and how I did in relation to market. Not just profit and loss. If the market is moving I should have a good day, if its not moving I dont really care if I didnt make anything. I think its unduly unjust on yourself if you treat yesterday same as a trendday like today where making 2 points was easy and yesterday it just traded for 1.5 points(one tic for entry one for exit) for over 3 hours. Yesterday, I couldnt get a move on, tick here tick there and today was in total flow although right before the open I was pretty sure it was going to be another grind day. My opinion was that since we wouldnt move until Thursday's numbers and then Fridays job report but the fast drop really woke me up.

What has really helped me is "post it" notes-I write them down. Simple things like "don't counter trend first day of trend" or "Patience"-its very helpful cause you are staring at the monitor and not finding opportunity and then you see the note on the side that says "patience" and your brain automatically clicks it in. I always keep paper and notebook for ideas that are working handy. Anytime I get an awesome trade I note everything down-my state of mind, how I identified it etc etc. Its different than thinking about it at the end of day and noting it. One more thing is Kaizen, in Japanese manufacturing - constant improvement. Doesn't mean constant tweaking but just constant improvement-baby steps. Change one thing at a time.

Trust in yourself and confidence is important and I am glad you are doing this exercise. Keep it up. One more question-do you just go for 6 tic target on ES or depending on day you'd go for more if you get to your target easily ?

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  #255 (permalink)
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I will always take a 6 tick first scale when i trade multiple lots and then im thinking 10 ticks for a second scale and then let runners work for the remaining-at least that is the plan. so yes, my eventual plan is to capture the bulk of the days range with runners but for now as a single lot guy i will always just take a 6 tick winner and pretend i have a second lot on for stats purposes.

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  #256 (permalink)
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Economic data: ECB announcement, claims

ON Profile: We have a 10.5 pt range and above average volume so far (218k). Yesterdays LVNs are capping the upside and downside pretty well. Vpoc is sitting right at the 1553.5 CHVN. It appears vwap has been supporting this move up.



Could be another volatile day on tap. We have an announcement from the ECB that it appears people think could be important and non-farms tomorrow. North Korea might stir something up again as well. Yesterdays action solidified 1548.75 as the mc vpoc since the breakout above 1521. Overnight the ES rejected that level and climbed back into the 1551.5-1558.5/1560 balance area. I think responsive sellers will be key today. If they don't jump on this gap up and knock it back down below 1551.5 pretty quickly then yesterday will begin to look like just another one hit wonder. Zooming out, long and mid-term time frames are still incredibly bullish. The daily time frame appeared to be bullish as well but now looks to be balancing or transitioning to bearish.

Levels Above: 1558.5 BAH/1560.25 CLVN/LVN*, 1563 CHVN, 1565 LVN, 1570 all time cash hi

Levels Below: 1551.5 CLVN*, 1548.75 nvpoc/CHVN*, 1545.5 LVN, 1544 pLo, 1540 CLVN**, 1535.25*

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR and responsive sellers get to work targeting 1551.5 or 1548.75. Rejection from either of those spots looks upward toward 1558.5/1560 area. Acceptance means continuation on to 1540.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and pushes higher but fails near 1558.5/1560 and then sellers target 1551.5/1548.5. Failure to hold there opens up 1540 CLVN.

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  #257 (permalink)
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1. Sold 1553.75 CHVN on 4.25 pt move. I really wanted a long from 1551.25 on re-test of OSHI but it didnt pull back. Man this thing is ripping, 5 ticks in my face instantly with size iceberg bids. Gonna try and scratch. Stopped after 4 min and .25 MF. Man stupid trade. Possible trend day up, looking long.

2. Long 1554.5 1st vwap on 1.5 pt pb. Risky trade for me but I have to try it as market is so strong and there are iceberg bids at my entry. Scaled after 1 min and 0 MA! Second scale given shortly thereafter, sweet!

3. Long 1553.75 vwap on 3.75 pt pb. I am surprised sellers got it down this far actually. Dang, stopped after 2 min and .25 MF. Spiking down to lows, WTF? Thats what I get for being cocky on the prior trade!

Ok this market is actin' a fool, going to sit on my hands for awhile. Might be done for the day with this action...

4. Long 1548.75 IBLO/CHVN/nvpoc/2nd vwap on 2 pt move down after double bottom was only taken out by 1 tick on a 74 lot after a big 5600 lot iceberg bid held low at 1558.5 before then bounced and came back down. Trying to play the edges here. Vpoc above at 1550.75. Market has calmed down considerably last hour. Scaled after 6 min and 0 MA. No second scale.





Recap
ES opened OAIR and chopped around a bit before making an aggressive move higher only to stop on a dime and make an even more aggressive move lower. The rest of the day was basically balancing. Value was established in the thin area of yesterdays middle profile area. Vpoc shifted up about 4 pts along with price. Volume was a little above average at 1.5 mill. I think the hi of the day is weak but the low looks strong and started above the single prints from yesterday's strong low indicating high demand. This weeks vpoc is 1555 so far with overall mc vpoc since breakout a few weeks ago is 1548.75. The daily candle is an inside day which makes sense considering the big day yesterday and non-farms tomorrow.

That was some crazy action in the first hour or so! My first trade sucked. I wanted the long, didnt get it so instead I take a short a mere 2 pts higher in the face of such strong action. Second trade worked out great. Third trade, man, I heard after the fact that bernanke was talking, not sure if he said something specific to cause that sell off to get kind of nasty or what. Funny though because I was so proud of myself for the prior trade then I get my teeth knocked out. Classis market behavior. Last trade seemed good, didn't give me a second scale and I doubt if I would have gotten long again near the lows as I prolly would have waited for lower prices. Another day, another scratch...

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  #258 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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Economic data: non-farms

ON Profile: We've got some action going into the NFP report. Maybe this is caused by japan or something else but ES is currently down 10 pts and below yesterdays low. Wednesday strongly rejected low at 1544 was taken out by 3 ticks and isn't bouncing as hard this time but rather milling around a bit. Volume is above average at 235k. Profile shape isn't pretty suggesting no real consensus on value. The hi is just above yesterdays settlement indicating no real desire to take prices higher.



Very interesting day on tap. Yesterday we had an inside day with a mostly balanced profile. If I am correct a breakout from this context should NOT be faded but rather gone with. As of now, pre-jobs that would mean a downside breakout. Assuming the ES holds below yLo into the close I will be expecting responsive buying on the open and depending on that strength will be looking to short yLo or yVAL/CHVN 1548.75 looking for rejection. If no responsive buying shows up I think that calls for a more aggressive short entry. If prices are accepted in yesterdays range then obviously you have to look up to 1555-1560.

Levels Above: 1546.75 yLo*, 1548.75 CHVN, 1551.5 CLVN*, 1554.75 nvpoc, 1560.25 CLVN/MP single**, 1563 CHVN

Levels Below: 1540/1539 CLVN/3-25 lo**, 1535.25 CHVN**, 1531.5 3-5 LVN/swinglow, 1527.25-1521.25 gap

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR and responsive buyers push to pLO or pVAL but are rejected and sellers step in and auction it lower to 1540 and possibly 1535 CHVN or even lower.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAOR and pushes lower to 1540 CLVN to pick up buyers and then auction higher steadily thru the day facing resistance at 1548.75 then 1551.5 and if it gets thru finally 1554.75 nvpoc.

Hypo#3- ES opens OD lower, get on board!

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  #259 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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1. Long 1535.25 CHVN on 4.5pt move pre-market. Stepped in front of a bus on this one. Instantly 5 ticks against me. Now 4 ticks in favor. Scaled after 2 min and 1.25 MF. Second scale given.

2. Long 1535.75 mid/vwap on 3 pt move down. Vpoc above at 1537.5 and I am cautious on this because on the prior move up to hi sellers stepped in and just pushed it right through vpoc with no fight indicating fair value perceptions may have changed. It is only 20 mins into the day though so how much is vpoc worth? Stopped after 7 min and 1.25 MF.

3. Sold 1540 CLVN on 3.5pt move. Some absorptive sellers up here. Day is looking rotational. Worried about how last move down stopped at vpoc and bounced. Stopped after 15 min and 1.0 MF.

4. Long 1538.5 1 tick below IBHI on 3pt pb. Value has been building higher and we have a very poor hi above. However, this sell off smacks of a sell program and profile shape is one big box. Mid/vwap are below at 1538 which could provide support. Christ this thing has touched my exit two times now and only printed 39 contracts and now its back to entry. Wow, quick bounce back to exit and filled after 18 min and 0 MA. And as soon as I was filled it instantly traded back to entry. Only 1 ticked my entry and rose back up to give a second scale, wild.

5. Short 1546.75 pLo on 5 pt move up. Very strong move but expecting reaction here, if anything just a pause. Above 2nd vwap which is 1545.5. 5 ticks instantly in favor then back to entry...Admittedly I lost track of time and didn't realize it was 2:42 on a friday when I put this on. Stopped after 7 minutes and 1.25 MF. Poor trade.




Recap
ES opened OAOR and headed straight for the ONLO but weakly and lacking conviction. Buyers stepped in and pushed it higher. It was a slow grind higher all day culminating in short covering into the close. Value finished lower along with vpoc. Price closed down 9 but above value and below prior range. Volume was good at 1.65 mil. Victory for the bulls I would say.

Another 5 trades to throw in the stat pile. I did 21 trades this week and finish with a net pnl of -$12.50. Im deflated and have nothing else to say at the moment.

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  #260 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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Longer time frames are still very bullish. However, the weekly timeframe could be transitioning to a balancing market. A month ago the market opened around 1547 and yesterday the market closed at 1547. So while new 5 year hi's have been made and volatility has upticked, the market is literally at the same price it was 4 weeks ago. The daily time frame could be looked at as one big balance area over the last month. Yesterday had a test and rejection of the accelerated uptrend. So for now, the shortest time frame is balancing but a break below that could signal the start of a downtrend.



Based on the volume profile, last week never happened! I wouldn't believe it if I didn't see it with my own eyes. MC vpoc (1548.75) is exactly the same. VAH and VAL are essentially the same. Thinking in terms of market logic, ES auctioned higher to new balance area hi's and were rejected. Logical target then would be the other side of balance near 1527. ES traded a 1533 low yesterday and found rejection then rotated up to the mc vpoc. Will sellers defend that level going forward or does the market auction to the top of balance again?

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  #261 (permalink)
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Another 5 trades to throw in the stat pile. I did 21 trades this week and finish with a net pnl of -$12.50. Im deflated and have nothing else to say at the moment.

I would highly recommend you read"the peaceful warrior" by Dan mill man before you continue trading further. You can get it from amazon for 9.99 for kindle with taxes it should be covered by the 12.50 you made. That would be an awesome trade IMHO. You don't need kindle to read on kindle - kindle app is available for phones PC tablets etc

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  #262 (permalink)
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garyboy275 View Post
I would highly recommend you read"the peaceful warrior" by Dan mill man before you continue trading further. You can get it from amazon for 9.99 for kindle with taxes it should be covered by the 12.50 you made. That would be an awesome trade IMHO. You don't need kindle to read on kindle - kindle app is available for phones PC tablets etc

As luck would have it i am currently layed up in bed today with a stomach virus and will take you up on your suggestion. I know FT71 has suggested this book as well. Curiously, what about my statement on friday made you suggest this book?i dont see the connection to it based on the synopsis.

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  #263 (permalink)
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You can get it from amazon for 9.99 for kindle with taxes it should be covered by the 12.50 you made. That would be an awesome trade IMHO. You are a trader after all.

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  #264 (permalink)
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Economic data: none, AA earnings

ON Profile: ES has a 7pt range so far on normal to lighter volume of 168k. The low is right at the LVN seperating the late afternoon pop into the close. The hi is just above the key 1551.5 CLVN. Profile shape is very boxy indicating unknown fair value. Both the hi and lo and poor with the hi being poorer having vpoc at 1551.5, 2 ticks below the hi



Fridays action almost completely erased the poor non-farms report and now the ES has continued higher yet. Must be deflating for the bears. This week is the start of earnings season which could take volatility up a notch or two. But for today, considering AA doesn't matter much, I expect a quiet rotational day with an upward bias. We are set to open in proximity of the 1548.75 mc vpoc which is also basicaly pHi so I expect a test and the reaction to it could be very telling. A nice rejection of that clears the way for bulls to make further upside progress but lingering/acceptance indicates a little trip into pRange. I am anticipating an OAOR with responsive sellers making the first push. How far they get will give clues to how the day will unfold. Longer time frames are still bullish. Daily time frame is balancing. We rotated from the BAH to the BAL last week and are now right in the middle.

Levels Above: 1551.5 CLVN/ONHI*, 1554.75 CHVN/nvpoc**, 1560.25 CLVN**, 1563 CHVN

Levels Below: 1544 MP single/LVN*, 1542 nvpoc, 1540 CLVN*, 1535.25 CHVN

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR and responsive sellers push to 1548.75 where buyers step in and auction higher through the day, potentially up to 1560.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAOR and ES pushes higher but fails at/above ONHI and sellers step in and auction lower, first to 1548.75 then 1544 and possibly lower.

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  #265 (permalink)
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1. Long 1544.75 LVN after bounce from 2.75 pt move down to 1544.25 MP single. 2nd vwap below at 1544.25. This is contrary to all the action that has taken place today so far but I think it is a good area for a long. ES opened right at the mc vpoc 1548.75 and instantly rejected it, sold off 1.5 pts, bounced back to it to the tick and rejected it again then made its way down here. Instantly 1 handle against me. Scaled after 7 min and 1.0 MA. Note: filled around 480 contracts in queue. No second scale.

2. Long 1546 mid/vwap on 2.25 pt pb. Vpoc 1 tick below. Ok, not sure if this trade makes sense as the day is looking rotational which are best played outside in. But this is first test of mid from above and the last auction up looked incomplete to me with a poor-ish hi. Scaled after 11 min and .5 MA. Second scale given after 2 hours of chop/

3. Sold 1550.75 on 5.75 pt move ahead of the 1551.5 CLVN. Had an order queued at 1551.5 but it printed weakly 1551.25 and the rotation is very extended so I jumped in here, for better or worse. This is a rotational day with weak volume and we are above the 2nd vwap here. Well if I was a bit more patient I would have gotten my 1551.5s... Stopped after 16 min and .25 MF. Would have been stopped on 1551.5 short as well. Really extended move here. Looking for another short at nvpoc above.
4. Sold 1560 CLVN/MP single on 7.5 pt move at 3:10pm. Maybe this is completely stupid but I couldn't resist taking this chance. I would definitely sell this level during RTH hours and given the rotation I decided to sell after cash close. Might take this into extra time. Into extra time we go, it did print 5 ticks in my favor and 2 against. Stopped after 34 min and 1.25 MF. Dang!




Recap
Strange day! ES opened OAIR right at the mc vpoc of 1548.75 and immediately rejected and moved lower. After a re-test and rejection it moved lower and sought buyers and found them just below the LVN from friday concurrent with the VAH. Two hours of chop higher ensued forming a nice balanced profile. Then the IBHI was taken out and the market morphed into a trend day that grinded higher extremely strong, staying above 2nd vwap for the majority of the time. You could have used 2nd vwap as support! Buying continued into the bell and after and shorts got squeezed. No value on a day like today, vpoc got left behind at 1547 and price closed just off the hi. Volume was pathetic on this move at only 1.18 mill! This action feels like someone knows something or is related to Japan possibly collapsing before our eyes and their money moving over here.

Well it certainly sucked watching that thing grind higher into the close. Im happy with all my trades today. I'm not happy to have missed that 10 handle move higher into the close but I have never seen anything like that before and would never have considered using a 2nd vwap as support. Maybe I was too agressive on the first long, had I been a little more patient the market would have come to me and that would have been the trade of the day.

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  #266 (permalink)
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Then the IBHI was taken out and the market morphed into a trend day that grinded higher extremely strong, staying above 2nd vwap for the majority of the time. You could have used 2nd vwap as support!

.................. I have never seen anything like that before and would never have considered using a 2nd vwap as support.


Profiler After reading these comments in your post I thought you might find interest in these links. "Walking the Bands" isn't an easy thing to do but if if you have the cajones to hang on it can be quite profitable.

TraderFeed: Trending Markets and the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

TraderFeed: VWAP, Trends, and Consolidations: A Longer Timeframe Look

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Profiler After reading these comments in your post I thought you might find interest in these links. "Walking the Bands" isn't an easy thing to do but if if you have the cajones to hang on it can be quite profitable.

TraderFeed: Trending Markets and the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

TraderFeed: VWAP, Trends, and Consolidations: A Longer Timeframe Look


Yes, I find Steenbarger is a well of info for trading and specifically trading ES.

Become Your Own Trading Coach

TraderFeed: Understanding Market Movement With VWAP

TraderFeed: Playing Moves Back to VWAP

TraderFeed: Tracking VWAP and Range Trading Days

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  #268 (permalink)
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Economic data: wholesale inventories

ON Profile: Tight 4.75 pt range last night on ok volume (189k). Shape is pretty gaussian but with a thicker middle and shorter tails. The most important information to be gleaned from it is that all of yesterday afternoon's rally was maintained and even built upon slightly.



Yesterdays breakout rally left many people scratching their heads, myself included. I can't explain where the strength came from or why but it did in fact occur and now we have to deal with it. Bigger picture, ES has simply been rotating from top of balancing to the bottom and back up again. We are now near the top of balance. Last time here we found strong responsive sellers off of 1566. Our BAH is 1568 and all time cash hi's are ~1570. Maybe today is the day we test that. I think the key level is 1560, yesterdays hi and the CLVN. If the ES is accepted back into pRange, I don't see much in the way of stopping it on a re-test of the 1548.75 breakout level. If pHi holds, I see a move up to new all time hi's. Will responsive sellers be waiting there again? So, for today, I am expecting an OAOR with responsive sellers making the first push. If they cant accomplish much I expect the bulls to step in and rip it higher to find sellers. If responsive sellers do manage to take it back into pRange and build acceptance, I think a trip back down to 1548.75 is in order. Longer time frames are very bullish, daily time frame is balancing.

Levels Above: 1565 LVN, 1568 BAH*, 1570 all time hi

Levels Below: 1560.5 pHi/CLVN**, 1553 CHVN, 1548.75*** mc vpoc, 1547 nvpoc, 1540 CLVN

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR and responsive sellers push to 1560 and fail then bulls ramp it up to new all time hi's.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAOR and responsive sellers push into pRange and build acceptance, ultimately targeting 1548.75.

Hypo#3- ES opens OD, get on board!

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  #269 (permalink)
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1. Long 1558.75 1 tick below ONLO on 2.5 pt move down as this sell off kind of meanders down weakly and there is an iceberg bid at my entry so I jumped in. Instantly 4 ticks against me, dang. Stopped after 8 min and .5 MF.

2. Sold 1557 on 1.5 pt pb. Aggressive entry and really debating whether I am giving myself the best chance but sellers are def in control and accepting value in yesterdays range so my target is down to 1548.75. Really wanted to wait for the pb to mid/vwap at 1548.75. God damnit, stopped after 3 min and .5 MF.

3. Sold 1560.5 pHi on 3.5 pt move. 4000 lot iceberg order there so I joined. Scary trade as it seems this market is ready to rip up. Went 3 ticks against me but then some serious selling came in. Scratched after 10 min and .75 MA vs 1.5 MF. Didn't like how it came to my exit and printed only 44 then ramped right back up. And I am a bit shellshocked today. FUCK! Instantly came back down and would have filled me.

I am going to step away for a bit and get my emotions under control, just a bit off kilter today.

4. Sold 1565.25 LVN/3rd vwap on 3.5 pt move. Market getting extended again and above the 2nd vwap which is currently 1563.75. Very big passive seller at 64.5 on the way up. Stopped after 7 min and .75 MF.

5. Long 1566.75 on 2.25 pt pb from hi. First vwap below at 1566 printed only 28 contracts and we have a veyr poor hi above (over 8k at top tick) so I am looking to get long for possible ramp into close. Potential negative is that ES came back into the balance area after making new hi's and after being above 3rd vwap it is now just barely above 1st vwap. Stopped after 16 min and 1.0 MF. Unbelievable, worst day in months. Limit down.





Recap
ES opened OAOR and after buyers pushed to 1562 a few times but no farther, bears stepped in and wacked it into pRange. A nice balanced profile developed inside pRange but similar to yesterday buyers auctioned it higher and a trend day began, often walking the dog with the 3rd vwap. New 5 year hi's traded but it stalled at 1569 with a poor hi left behind and sellers auctioned it down to the ONHI and just below. So, all in all, vpoc and value shifted higher. Price moved higher and closed inside value on average volume (1.4 mill).

Man I feel terrible right now. Right from the start I felt out of sync with the market and unsure of myself. The one good trade I did today I scratched. Ok I lost $300, not a problem if I felt like I learned something but I don't think I learned anything today. I'm questioning how much I've learned over the last 6 months because I am constantly doing trades that I should have done the opposite way! Today is done, tomorrow is another day...

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Man I feel terrible right now. Right from the start I felt out of sync with the market and unsure of myself. The one good trade I did today I scratched. Ok I lost $300, not a problem if I felt like I learned something but I don't think I learned anything today. I'm questioning how much I've learned over the last 6 months because I am constantly doing trades that I should have done the opposite way! Today is done, tomorrow is another day...

Keep your chin up dude. You are going to do fine! I know how you feel, and all we can do is work on our market knowledge, execution, and mental/psychological things, and keep doing our best to improve.

A question: have you considered a larger target, yielding a better r/r? As it stands you have to win about 55-60% to break even and that's a tough proposition. Have you thought about setting targets based on market structure? Maybe you're doing an exercise or something, I don't know, just something to think about.

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  #271 (permalink)
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josh View Post
A question: have you considered a larger target, yielding a better r/r? As it stands you have to win about 55-60% to break even and that's a tough proposition. Have you thought about setting targets based on market structure? Maybe you're doing an exercise or something, I don't know, just something to think about.

all my trades theoretically have larger targets for when i eventually trade multiple lots, definitely not trying to just shoot for 1.5 pts on winners. but for now im mainly trying to work on identifying good trade locations and just putting on a 1 lot to get in the market with some skin in the game. so far i would grade my trade entry locations a C-. just stay in the game and keep working hard until the light switch is flipped though...

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  #272 (permalink)
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Economic data: fomc minutes

ON Profile: We have an 8 pt range on normal volume (170k). The low is yesterdays RTH open and above the 1559.75 CLVN seperating the upper and lower distributions. The hi is yesterday's hi to the tick. Vpoc sitting at 1566.5 which coincides with an HVN from yesterday. Overall shape is like a "p".



Bizarre day yesterday, once again. Two days in a row the ES spends the morning balancing then breaks out and trends higher. Yesterday left a very poor hi in place and overnight the ES has touched it to the tick. I have to believe it is extremely likely to be taken out today. Value between 1560 and 1569 is somewhat undetermined. We have a CHVN at 1566.75 and one at 1563.25I am anticipating an OAIR above/at VAH rotational day. I think responsive sellers will make the first push but buyers will be waiting, looking for the 1569 target. What happens above there is anyone's guess. A rejection back into pRange sets the table for another sell off back to 1561.

Levels Above: 1569 pHi/ONHi*, 1570 all time cash

Levels Below: 1563.25 CHVN, 1559.75 CLVN*, 1554.75 MP single/CHVN*, 1549 MP single/mc vpoc***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR above/at value and responsive sellers push lower to 1563 to pick up buyers then grinds higher through the day.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR above/at value and pushes higher through pHi but fails and re-enters pRange where sellers step in and auction it lower to 1560 level.

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  #273 (permalink)
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1. Long 1569.25 mid/pHi on 2.25 pt move down after an OTD open. Looks like this OTD could be fizzled out already, we shall see. Iceberg bid of 3k at my entry before I jumped in. Scaled after 3 min and .5 MA. Second scale given. Might have a directional/trend day today but I doubt it, strength seems to be subsiding. Well it it just pushed to 73.75 so what so do I know?

2. Sold 1575 on 2 pt move up. Last 2 new highs have been made by only 1 tick and this last hi at 1575.5 pulled back a handle so I jumped in on a 2 tick push up. I realize the day has been strong thus far so this is definitely a fade trade. Scratched after 9 min and 1.0 MF vs .5 MA. Doubts crept into my head with no real reason to fade at this location other than weak context. Would have been loser.

3. Sold 1575.75, ok this is the silvester as over 7k printed on the offer at top tick so I joined it. Taking a flyer on this type of trade. Instantly 3 ticks against me. Stopped after 10 min and 0MF. Offered one up to the trading gods on that one. No reason to get short until this market gets done one timin up.

4. Long 1581.5 1st vwap on 1.5 pt move down. Vpoc shifted to 1583 and I missed a long here the first time down. Overall context so far is strong trend up day. However, it may be weakening as the last bounce traded up to the vpoc and printed it weakly and we now have a lower hi in place. HOD looks ok on the profile but it is a double top. Its gone 5 ticks against me and vpoc has shifted to 1580.75. FML. Scratched after 18 min and 1.25 MA vs .25 MF. Looks like buying finally kicking in now. Would have been winner...




Recap
ES opened just below pHi made 2 downticks and then off to the races for an open drive. It made one pullback to the mid before blasting off for good. Solid trend up day though it did lose elongation at the hi. Vpoc solidily higher but value did not exist today. Volume was heavy than average at 1.71 mill but not insane. Price closed near the hi and overall its a clean/strong breakout from the balance area it has been lingering in for the last 5 weeks. The trend higher continues...

I made no money today which sucks. But I did do the trade of the day by buying the pullback to mid. If i had been trading multiple contracts I have to say I highly doubt I would have been able to hang on all day. There were so many times where I swear I saw the top put in and weakness creeping into the market. But it never came close to the mid after the initial pullback. It barely went underneath the 1st vwap at the end of the day. This market was super strong and its funny how it can make you think you see weakness. My second trade was stupid. Third trade was just an experiment and I paid for it but I'm not bothered by it. Last trade...I suspected I should have waited on my long a bit given the way it was acting but I wanted in and it would have paid me still if I had just held on.

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  #274 (permalink)
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Economic data: claims, import/export

ON Profile: Pretty nicely balanced session last night with a smallish 5 pt range and light volume (158k). Yesterdays hi was taken out by 1.25 pts and the low lines up with an HVN from yesterday or just short of the afternoon pullback. Vpoc lines up almost to the tick with yesterdays. Overall, the market has accepted yesterdays move and is waiting for further info.



Yesterday we had the strong/clean breakout from the balance area that we had been oscillating in since march 5. The question is what will be our next balance area? How much higher will ES go before sellers push back? Beats me. VP/MP now has no upside reference points to lean on so I think the ONHI and IB extensions will have to be the source of our cues. To the downside, we have some LVNs left behind by the trend that might act as support and I expect the prior BAH of 1569 to be very strong support. Im thinking today is a rotational day that digests yesterdays gains. Looking for an OAIR in the middle of the ON profile. A push to the ON hi is what I am most interested in, failure sends it back to 1582.75 and possibly to 1575.5 MP single. Acceptance means more vertical price discovery.

Levels Above: 1585.75 ONHI

Levels Below: 1582.5 nvpoc, 1575.5 MP single/LVN, 1572.75 MP single, 1569 BAH high/breakout level***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR and chops around, pushes lower weakly to ONLO to pick up buyers and then grinds higher through the day.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and pushes up to ONHI but fails and is then re-accepted in pRange targeting 1575.5 MP single.

Hypo#3- ES opens OD up?

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  #275 (permalink)
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Profiler, you are getting more and more adept at interpreting price behavior in relation to volume profile. I have noticed sharp improvements in your analysis. Just wanted to tell you i like reading them.

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Profiler, one more source to learn is at J. Dalton web site. Their private member section is free since a few days ago. You might like to subscribe. There are always a few clues i get from reading his S&P morning update.

Dashboard - Guest Members Resource Center - James Dalton Trading

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  #277 (permalink)
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1. Sold 1589.75 on 4.25 pt move after a 1.5pt spike and absorptive seller sitting at my entry. Really no other justification for this trade. Wow this strength is ridiculous, 5 ticks against me. Now back to entry. Stopped after 13 min and .25 MF. Stupid trade.

2. Long 1588.75 above the IBHI on 4.25 pt move. Wanted IBHI long but it stopped 2 ticks short and printed weakly. Very strong day so far but finally sellers stepped in from 93 level and this is biggest rotation down on the day. My stop is 1 tick below vwap which isn't ideal placement but I paid up. 5 ticks in my favor pretty quickly. Now back at entry. Now 4 ticks against me at IBHi, where I really wanted to get long...Scaled after 63 minutes and 1.25 MA. The long at IBHI exact was the best trade location, not mine. Second scale given.




Recap
ES opened OAIR and pushed weakly lower only to fail a tick before the ONLO when buyers stepped in and ripped it higher. For awhile the buying was pretty crazy but around 1592 the buyers ran out of steam. From there it turned into a rotational day between the hi and the mid. Vpoc and value shifted higher, above pHi. Price closed higher, inside value and above pHi. Volume was average at 1.45 mill. Overall yesterdays breakout was built upon as the we are in vertical price discovery mode. No aggressive sellers found yet.

Disappointing day today, the market just wouldn't let me in where I wanted to get in on 2 really good trades. Then I did one totally stupid trade and one ok trade that I was fortunate to not be stopped out on. Frustration about all these scratch days is building within me. I need to let something go within me and just pay up more often when I don't get my exact price...

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  #278 (permalink)
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Economic data: retail, PPI, mich, biz inventories

ON Profile: ES has a 7.5pt range on average volume (184k) so far. Not really sure why the hi is where it is but it appears that in selling off, the ES rejected value at yesterdays vpoc and searched lower for the building CHVN at 1582.75 to find buyers. Profile is shaped like a "b" which indicates long liquidation, according to Dalton. Vpoc is at 1582.75.



Yesterday added to the gains from the prior day's breakout but it lost steam and turned rotational at the end and closed inside value. The last 2 days combined have formed a double distribution separated by the 1585.5 CLVN with CHVNs at 1588 and 1583.75. The overnight session rejected the top distribution and is now building value in the lower one. We have important data out today which could impact the market meaningfully and lead to chop within the first half hour but I am anticipating an OAIR below value, possibly OAOR. I think responsive buyers make the first push higher and the strength of that will be the key. A weak push and sellers/profit takers have the ball to take it below pLo at 1581 and if they can build value there 1575 is targeted with 1569 breakout level the extreme target. All time frames are bullish.

Levels Above: 1583.75 LVN/ON vpoc, 1585.75 CLVN*, 1588 CHVN, 1593 pHi

Levels Below: 1581 pLo, 1577.75 CLVN, 1575.5 MP single*, 1572.75 MP single, 1569 breakout level***

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR below value/OAOR and responsive buyers push to 1583.75/1585.5 and fail allowing sellers to step in and have at it. If they are able to build value below pLo then they can push to 1575.5 area or lower but I expect buyers to be waiting t auction it higher.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR/OAOR and sellers push lower but fail and buyers grind it higher through the day targeting 1582.5 then 1588.

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  #279 (permalink)
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1. Long 1581.25 pLo/2nd vwap on 1.5 pt move after low was taken out by 2 ticks and printed weakly then bounced back up. Rotation sucks but I think overall context supports the trade as we have a rotational day unfolding thus far and a poorish hi above. Scaled after 2 min and .25 MA. Second scale given.

2. Long 1577.75 CLVN/bottom of balance area from breakout day on 5pt move down. Stopped after 1 min and .25 MF. Brutal.

3. Long 1579 ONLO on top of a 1.75 pt move up. New type of trade for me here, not comfortable with it. ES has traded up to here 3 times now and been rejected. This is 4th time. Very distinct LVN zone separating it and IBLO at 1580.5. Debated playing it from short side at IBLO which lines up with mid/vwap and pLo at 1581 and vpoc at 1581.5 but given the resistance faced in breaking through 1579 up. I'm not sure if sellers would have power to send it right back thu. Scaled after 2 min and .25 MA. Second scale given so it was the right call as the short would have given one scale only.

4. Long 1580.5 mid/vwap/lvn on 3.25 pt move. Ok so now my exit from the trade above is my entry. Last move up stalled before near VAH but we have a series of higher hi's and lower low's in place despite the profile being rather blocky and the day being rotational I took the long considering for me to be wrong it would have to go below the ONLO at 1579 which I don't think is likely, but possible. Scaled after 12 min and 0MA. Second scale given after about 2 hours. 1579 level held as expected, only printing weakly at 1579.25.




Recap
ES opened OAIR below value and responsive buyers quickly stepped in and attempted to bring it back into prior value but failed at the CLVN separating the 2 distributions on the composite. Sellers wacked it, aided by poor michigan numbers, and took it down to the 1575 MP single to pick up buyers. From there buyers brought it back inside the IB and held it there for the rest of the day. Value and vpoc shifted lower. Price closed lower and inside value. Volume was average at 1.46 mill. Profile shape looks incomplete to the upside so I'm thinking sunday night explores higher? 1582.5 has established itself as the most fairest price since the breakout.

I had some decent trades today but it could have been better. I missed that long at 1575.5 which is really frustrating because it was the trade of the day. I lost money this week but i end it on a positive note so thats good...

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  #280 (permalink)
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We've got all time frames extremely positive right now. The daily and possibly weekly charts had been balancing for the last month but this week's breakout switches everything to vertical price discovery mode again. I see no reason to want to be short other than on an intraday basis. The only reason to be short on a longer time frame basis, IMO, is because you think its run up too far, too fast and thats not a good reason in my book.



The composite shows the break from balance and what people are thinking about prices above. So far 1582.50 is getting a lot of love. Above that 1588 is forming a little HVN and in between those two is pretty devoid so I am thinking that area is going to be auctioned thoroughly soon. The hi at 1593 looks weak to me as if it wasn't sellers stepping in aggressively but rather bulls getting tired and taking profits around there. Yesterday's action had a solid buying response from the 1575 level. It will be interesting if the 1569 breakout level gets tested, I expect it to hold but the last two breakout areas were never even revisited. Long and strong is the way right now.

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  #281 (permalink)
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Economic data: empire, housing

ON Profile: Some action in the night session last night! ES traded in a 11.25 pt range with heavier volume (240k) that normal so far. We have a double top 1 tick above prior vpoc and a double bottom at 1571.75 that looks very poor and is below pLo. Vpoc sitting at 1574. Shape looks somewhat like a "b".



So I was not expecting this action after my weekend review but the market is the boss and we have to respond to whatever it throws at us. We are looking at an OAIR or OAOR opening today. First key level will be pLo, 1575, if it can hold that level and build acceptance above that level the natural target becomes nvpoc at 1582.75 with 1579 potentially acting as resistance. I am expecting responsive buying on the open so maybe possibly a pullback will fail at/above 1575 and that will be the all-clear to get long? If the ES builds value below pLo, well then the breakout area of 1569 is the target and I expect that level to hold and buyers to auction it up back into pRange. If it does not hold and prices are accepted back into prior balance...we could have the makings of a significant top with sizable correction to follow. All time frames are bullish and therefore my bias is to the upside.

Levels Above: 1579 LVN, 1582.75 nvpoc/ONHI*, 1586.75 CLVN, 1588 CHVN*, 1593 BAH HI

Levels Below: 1575 pLo, 1572.75 MP Single, 1569 breakout***, 1566.75 CHVN, 1562.75 CHVN

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR below value/OAOR and responsive buyers make first push, if prices accepted and 1575 pLo holds then 1582.75 is target then 1588.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR/OAOR and sellers make first push but fail around ONLO/1569 and then buyers auction it higher thru the day.

Hypo#3- ES opens OAIR/OAOR and sellers push to 1569 and build value below that level inviting aggressive sellers to step in and really wack it.

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  #282 (permalink)
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1. Long 1575.5 mid/vwap on 1.75 pt pb after opening OAIR and pushing weakly below pLo before heading higher then pulling back and printing weakly at pLo. Man 4 ticks against me instantly. Stopped after 2 min and 0MF. Well that trade clearly was wrong...

2. Sold 1574.5 mid/vwap on 2.75 pt move off lows. pLo above. Not sure if this trade makes sense as market moved down to ONLO and traded it to the tick but resting bids there absorbed sellers and then moved higher. Low looks poor but the fact it stopped there to the tick makes me question sellers strength. Christ, stopped after 1 min. Pff, realized I forgot about housing number at 9, aww man, then sell off instantly to exit. Stopped out to tick on 118 print and now new lows...

3. Long 1569 pBAH on 5.75 pt move. ES has a nice balanced profile so this is a buy at a key level and below value and I really expect a bounce. Pff, stopped after 3 min and 0 MF. This level offered no support whatsoever, I am kind of stunned by it. Keep in mind for further use.

4. Long 1563.25 CHVN on 5.25 pt move down. Naked settlement a tick above. Sellers def in control today and we have 14 pts of range so far. 4k iceberg bid a tick below. Traded 312 at my exit but no fill... back to entry... now printing my stop but weakly...christ. Stopped after 17 min and 1.5 MF and 2 ticks slippage on stop. Limit down for the day.




Recap
ES opened OAIR below value and chopped around a bit before making a decisive break into the prior balance area and just getting destroyed. Vpoc got left behind near the top. Value did not exist. Price took a beating on very heavy volume of 2.45 mill. Including the ON session total range was over 40 pts. The daily candle is a massive red beast. We are now firmly back in prior balance area.


Profiler View Post
Hypo#3- ES opens OAIR/OAOR and sellers push to 1569 and build value below that level inviting aggressive sellers to step in and really wack it.

I debated whether or not to add hypo#3 to my morning analysis. Coming into today I thought the conditions were the most bullish in awhile and certainly expected 1569 level to contain any selling pressure. Little did I know how right that hypo would be and how un-able I would be to profit from it but rather hit my daily loss limit. I'm a bit shell shocked at the moment, this makes 2 mondays in a row where I hit limit down. The open definitely felt weird. I expected responsive buying and got it but it was weak. But then sellers couldn't really do anything themselves and a nice balance area formed. Lately some crazy moves have developed after seemingly innocuous balanced morning sessions. Time to take my mind off today and get ready for tomorrow.

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Why would you be bullish coming into today? Bad China number, gold down big at open again, ES extended and losing momentum for last 1 1/2 days, gapped down below Fridays value area - no attempt in first 15 minutes till number came out to fill the gap.

Bookmark forexfactory.com and check it on Monday so you know what# is coming and when. That's not a very convincing excuse

Then it couldn't break above 63.50 area after filling gap. Pretty convincing short there.

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  #284 (permalink)
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Why would you be bullish coming into today? Bad China number, gold down big at open again, ES extended and losing momentum for last 1 1/2 days, gapped down below Fridays value area - no attempt in first 15 minutes till number came out to fill the gap.

Bookmark forexfactory.com and check it on Monday so you know what# is coming and when. That's not a very convincing excuse

Then it couldn't break above 63.50 area after filling gap. Pretty convincing short there.

how could you not be bullish? ES entered today 20 pts off all time hi. how many crappy numbers (from here or china) has the market ignored over the last 4 months? gold got wacked on friday and I dont think it had any effect on the market. ES extended? it spent the last month balancing and finally broke higher last week and entered today a measly 6 pts above that balance area hi. your bearish bias was obviously correct with hindsight but i dont think your reasoning is valid.

i know when numbers come out, i had the 9am number in my pre-market analysis. i accept responsibility for all my trades and i accept responsibility for forgetting about this in the minute before it came out when i put the trade on. its a minor number but i still would not have put the trade on had i remembered it. this will happen again, too.

i wanted to short that bounce to 63 big time but i was already limit down and had to watch

i blew it today, no doubt. sounds like you had a good day and i congratulate and tip my hat. wish i was in your shoes today.

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garyboy275 View Post
gapped down below Fridays value area - no attempt in first 15 minutes till number came out to fill the gap.

so if an open out of value doesnt get inside prior value within first 15 minutes you fade away from value as a general rule?

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  #286 (permalink)
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Maybe this helps, maybe it doesn't... just a humble opinion that may provoke some thought/insight of your own:

To me (and the best trader I know said this too) the key was the fact that we absolutely couldn't maintain anything above Friday's low. We attempted to push up towards Friday's value area, and just could not accept prices above the lows of the session.

The overnight low provided support for a while, so we ranged in between the two. Once those broke down, direction was clear and no swing high was violated the rest of the day.



It's easy for me to sit here and point this out in hindsight. I did not trade it perfectly myself, but I did have a profitable day. I knew I wanted to be shorting coming in to the day with my game plan, and probably a bigger reason is that I realized I needed to be taking advantage of pullbacks with the main (downward) direction based on the things I discussed above.

Maybe something in this speaks to you, maybe not, but this is just a futures.io (formerly BMT) neighbor offering his own way at a helping hand.

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  #287 (permalink)
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that makes sense ID7 and thanks for contributing!

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  #288 (permalink)
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Economic data: CPI, housing

ON Profile: ES has recovered some of yesterdays losses, currently trading +13. Wide range of almost 20 pts so far and heavy volume (348k). Vpoc sitting at 1552, right above the 1551.5 CLVN. The hi looks poor and I think that will get taken out one way or the other before end of day. The low at 1538.75 has a strong selling tail as buyers continue to be found in that low 1540 upper 1530 area.



Yesterdays big sell off def sucked for bulls but its important to keep in mind overall context is still bullish. Longer time frames are still trending higher. However, we now have a failed breakout at new all time hi's on our hands. Auction logic says the market "should" visit the other side of balance after a failed breakout. Does 1538.75 satisfy that? 1548.75 mc vpoc is our main reference point from the composite. ES is currently up 20 pts from yesterdays after hours low. I am looking for responsive sellers to step in off the open and see if they can push it down, potentially to 1548.75. If they are unable to accomplish much then I will view yesterday as a one-off type of day with bears having no more ammo left and bulls to auction it higher.

Levels Above: 1559.75 CLVN*, 1563.25 CHVN/yswing hi**, 1565 CLVN, 1566.75 CHVN, 1569 BAH

Levels Below: 1554.75 CHVN, 1548.75 mc vpoc**, 1542 nvpoc pLo

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR and responsive sellers step in and push it lower-their strength being key for the day- if rejected near 1554.75 CHVN then push higher to 1559.75 and 1563.25 then 1569, if accepted then continue lower to 1548.75.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and pushes higher but fails at 1559.75 or 1563.25 area and pushes lower targeting 1554 then 1548.

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  #289 (permalink)
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1. Sold 1556.5 IBLO on 2 pt bounce off low. ES balanced the first 1.5 hours of the day then broke below the IB. Caveats are a poor hi and a decent bounce off the 1554.75 CHVN. Stopped after 4 min and .25 MF. Garbage trade.

2. Sold 1563.5 yesterday swing hi on 2.75 pt move after it went through 2 ticks and nothing above. Scratched after a minute, going to wait for 1565 MP single. Would have been loser.

3. Sold 1565 MP single on 4.25 pt move. SO far we have at least a neutral day so it makes sense to play the outside in. Traded my exit, 550 contracts and no fill and now back to entry...Back to exit and only 68 print but over 4000 on bid above me and now pops to entry again. Super annoying. Scaled (!) after 18 min and .5 MA. No second scale, thing doesnt want to go down.




Recap
ES opened OAIR and chopped around for the first hour before putting in the definitive low at the 1545.75 CHVN. Buyers auctioned it higher thru the day to the BAH of 1569-70 area where it closed. Vpoc shifted up to 1569 at the close and I would not say there was a clear cut value area. Volume was above average at 1.75 mill but obviously not as heavy as yesterday. After yesterday's panic the ES finds itself at the top end of prior balance area having reversed the majority of yesterdays losses.

My first trade sucked so bad today. I wanted the long but then remembered how lately the ES has been balancing early then breaking out definitively so I went with that. I didn't even take it on the first touch either which at least offered a 1.25 MF, I took it on the second touch and got 0 MF. Whatever, neither one paid. Larger point is I am just not making good decisions. The long was the trade of the day. And I tried a short back into it. Serenity now!

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Profiler View Post
so if an open out of value doesnt get inside prior value within first 15 minutes you fade away from value as a general rule?

I hope these two charts explain it-I know you watch tick chart but I personally find 5 minute more helpful than tick chart esp on a day there is enough volume. There is nothing in hidhsight-mark it for next time there are two types of reversion to mean-price and time. Yesterday when price after moving down almost 12 handles at 63 area couldnt move up-it just chopped sideways and then made another thrust down. The sideways chop was just letting MA's catch up. Look where we bounced today after correcting from 68 area-exactly 62.50-63.50 area. I think you need to look at previous days and be aggressive at these areas.

If I can recommend an improvement. Go for bigger profits but in direction of trend esp on first day of a gap.




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Economic data: beige book

ON Profile: Kind of a double distribution shaped profile thus far. Larger than average range of 14.75 pts and heavier than average volume (300k). The hi is 3 ticks below pHi and the low is 3 ticks above pLo so really all of yesterdays range has been re-traced. Vpoc sitting at 1560.5. I am surprised that yesterdays LVN didn't act as better support on the way down but it certainly has been acting as resistance from below.



Yesterdays rally went right to the top of the prior balance area and stalled. It was a great place to initiate a short, I just wish it had gotten there earlier in the day to do it instead of at the close. All of those gains have been re-traced and we are set to open in range, at or below value, though I am not sure yesterdays value means much. Auction logic says rejection from BAH targets the BAL at ~1530. I think the key price for today will be yesterday's low. If it is rejected, then I see no reason why the market wouldn't just head back up the 1570 area provided it can get through 1562.25. But if it is accepted then the ES will target 1548.75 mc vpoc and potentially lower. I expect responsive buyers initially and from there the strength of sellers will determine the day. If they can take it down to pLo and build value its one thing but if they can't then up is the way. Longer time frames are very bullish, daily time frame is undecided.

Levels Above: 1559.75 CLVN, 1562.25 LVN*, 1569 nvpoc/BAH, 1572.25 nvpoc

Levels Below: 1554.75 pLo**, 1551.5 CLVN, 1548.75 mc vpoc**, 1542 nvpoc

Hypo#1- ES opens OAIR and responsive buyers push to 1559.75 and fail as sellers step in and auction it lower to pLo but fail as well and buyers step in and auction it higher through the day.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAIR and sellers step in and build value at/below pLo and target 1548.75 then 1542.

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1. Sold 1554.5 pLo on 2.5 pt move off lows. Very strong selling off the open. Vwap a tick above me. 4 ticks instantly in my favor, now 3 ticks against. God damnit, blows through my stop, 10 tick loss after 4 min.

2. Long 1555.5 mid on 2.5 pt pb. Last push up through mid ran 6 pts so I bot the pb. Volatile action here. My stop is below pLo so that could act as support. Trades my exit but no fill. Stopped after 5 min and 1.5 MF. Unreal.

3. Sold 1546 HVN on 4.25 pt move up. Strong move off lows. Not really confident in this trade at all. 3 ticks against and 5 for so far. Vpoc shifted to entry. Scaled after 10 min and 1.0 MA. Second scale given.

4. Long 1541 VAL on 2.5 pt move down. Very strong buying response from this level earlier so I will take a long here with a stop 2 ticks below the low. Scaled after 2 min and .5 MA. No second scale.

5. Long 1549 on top of 3 pt move up as this is the 3rd time up to this area so expecting move above. Caveat being my exit is just above the dVAH. Dang 5 tick spike in my favor but nothing prints at my exit and now back to entry. Stopped after 5 min and 1.25 MF.




Recap
ES opened kind of OD with sellers really stepping but then laying off the gas and first 30-45 minutes were pretty wild. Buyers never unable to take it more than 1 tick above the open so sellers layed the boom and wacked it. Value and vpoc significantly lower than yesterday along with price on heavy volume of more than 2.5 mill. Daily candle has a nice lower wick and we did close above Mondays low but below the mc vpoc. So big ranges, heavy volume and lots of volatility lately.

I really got spun around in the first hour today which is too bad because I saw early on that the day would most likely be lower targeting 1548 then 1542 but I was unable to capitalize on it. Super frustrating days lately.

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Dont let todays frustration affect tommorow's trading. I made a detailed post in Spoo-analysis thread. Read that a bit -and pick your days to trade. I am just too busted to post everything again. So far first 15-30 minutes tell you very nicely which way its going. 10 point gap up yesterday couldnt find any sellers and 10 pt gap down today couldnt find any buyers until 1538. Tommorow should be interesting. It is OPEX week afterall living upto its name.

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just a heads up i wont be trading tomorrow, headed back down to brazil to rejoin my wife after waiting 3 months here in the chi for my permanent resident visa to be issued. be a nice little break from trading and a better situation for me overall. looking forward to my dog laying down next to me too while i trade...

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just a heads up i wont be trading tomorrow, headed back down to brazil to rejoin my wife after waiting 3 months here in the chi for my permanent resident visa to be issued. be a nice little break from trading and a better situation for me overall. looking forward to my dog laying down next to me too while i trade...

Awesome, enjoy your trip!

Mike

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just a heads up i wont be trading tomorrow, headed back down to brazil to rejoin my wife after waiting 3 months here in the chi for my permanent resident visa to be issued. be a nice little break from trading and a better situation for me overall. looking forward to my dog laying down next to me too while i trade...

Oh my God why now ? We are going to have 40 point days everyday, you gonna miss out

Have an awesome trip. Clear your head too-maybe read a few books ? Jonathan Livingston seagull, by Richard Bach and Unstoppable Confidence would be my recommendations if you do read. Let me know if you want I think kindle will allow to loan upto 7 days.

Edit:Sorry just checked both titles are not loan-able

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  #297 (permalink)
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Its nice to trade off this computer set up instead of the 17" laptop I was using for the last 4 months. if only it makes me do better trades... In between my dog getting under my desk I managed to make a few today.



1. Sold 1540.25 CLVN 2 ticks above mid/vwap on 4 pt move. Strong reaction off nvpoc below/LOD hinders this trade. Stopped after 2 min and .5 MF. Stupid trade?

2. Long 1540.5 mid on 4 pt move. So same trade as before but from above as the market run through mid last time on a 6.25 pt move up and traded above value before coming back in. Neither ON hi or lo has been taken out yet and it seems the hi is more likely given mc vpoc is there. Scaled after 3 min and .25 MA. Second scale given.

3. Sold 1546.25 mc vpoc on 3.25 pt move. Market has been bullish today so not to keen on it but when it poked thru the IBHi first time by only 2 ticks it quickly got rejected by 2.25 pts so I was thinking the bulls strength is fading up here. Stopped after 6 min and .5MF.

4. Long 1544.75 IBHI/LVN on 4 pt move. Ok so we have a normal variation day so far with 6 pts range extension above the IBHI and vpoc that shifted up to 1548 so I think this trade looks good. However, the HOD 2 ticked prior days hi only and came back down so the market checked above pHi and found no buyers which sucks. 15 min into the trade and its gone 1 tick against and printed my exit but only 73 contracts then come back to entry which makes me think they aren't done going down yet. Scaled after 35 min and .75 MA. Second scale given.




Not going to do a recap today as I don't have time but man that long off the nvpoc was sweet, too bad I was too confused by context to take it... Today shifted the mc vpoc back up to 1548.5 from 1546 and that is exactly where we closed so which way from here?

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Monthly and weekly uptrends are strongly in place. However, the weekly is entering a period of expanded volatility which could be a harbinger of a trend change?



The daily chart is firmly in the middle of its prior balance area. We have what appears to be a rejected upside breakout and spoos have since retreated back into the prior balance area and closed right at the mc vpoc. Yesterdays action broke the one time-framing down on the daily chart.



The volume profile shows that last week basically changed nothing. VPOC and VAH are exactly the same while VAL is off by a 2 ticks. So what did happen last week? Well price got smacked on heavy volume. Virtually the entire balance area was auctioned with buyers finding the low 1530's as too cheap and 1570 as too expensive. Now where to???

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  #299 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 589 received

Economic data: homes

ON Profile: P-shaped profile last night as the ES opened near the top of pRange, right at the mc vpoc of 1548.5, downticked once and then went higher in search of sellers. Its got a poor-ish looking hi at 1557.5 and has bumped up against 1557 3 other times. There is no obvious reason I can see why this area is acting as resistance. Vpoc is sitting at 1556.



We are set for a gap up open. I expect responsive sellers to make the first push and try to get back into pRange. The strength of this move will be key. If it is weak then it will be your cue to look long targeting 1566.75/1569 area. If it can build value inside pRange well then we look lower towards 1546.5 and possibly below. Bigger picture we are opening up in the middle of balance, just above the mc vpoc. Longer term trends are bullish but short term is balanced to possibly negative.

Levels Above: 1560 CLVN, 1562.25 LVN from 4-16*, 1566.75 CHVN*, 1569 nvpoc/BAH***, 1572.25 nvpoc

Levels below: 1551.5/1550.75 CLVN/pHi**, 1548.5 mc vpoc**, 1540 CLVN

Hypo#1- ES opens OAOR and sellers push first to attempt into pRange but fail and bulls step in at 1550.75/1548.5 and auction higher the rest of the day.

Hypo#2- ES opens OAOR and buyers push but fail at/near pHi allowing sellers to auction lower through the day targeting 1546.75 then 1535.25.

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  #300 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 589 received

1. Long 1550.25 pLo on 5 pt move. Responsive sellers really slapping it but it appeared to be slowing around this level, prior VAH. Scratched after 4 min and 1.25 MA vs .25 MF because a very poor low formed. Would have been loser.

2. Long 1544 VA/prior day swing low on 2.5 pt move down after nice buying response from first time down. Aggressive seller really knocking this down though, 4 ticks against me instantly. Now back to entry. Scaled after 2 min and 1.0 MA. Second scale given after new lows made by a tick but my stop not touched.

3. Sold 1551.25 above pHi/early morning top/dVAH on 2.75 pt move. Have had a strong move off lows now with value built inside yesterdays range so looking for sellers to come in here. Stopped after 11 min and .5 MF. Just grinding higher.

4. Sold 1559.75 CLVN on 6.5 pt move. Christ, instant 5 tick spike against me but sellers stepping and now back to entry. Should I scratch this? Traded my exit 255 times but no fill, could be a problem. Scaled after 20 min and pos # 470 in cue. Second scale given after more than an hour of chop.





Recap
ES opened OAOR to the upside and responsive sellers stepped in shortly after the open and wacked it. Shortly after the IB was put in a downside probe was quickly rejected and buyers auctioned it higher through the rest of the day to new highs which caught me by surprise. Vpoc and value shifted higher along with price which closed inside value. Volume was slightly below average at 1.34 mill. Profile shape is ugly with kind of a quadruple distribution formation. 1555.5 seemed to be the line in the sand today and perhaps it will continue to be important tomorrow.

I ened up buying the bottom and selling the top today, both within 5 ticks which feels good I guess. Both of my trades in the middle were losers. Weird day, went from looking like a normal day to a neutral day to neutral extreme then back to neutral.

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