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Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling


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Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling

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  #111 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
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1. Bot 1516.5 IBHI on 2.5 pt pb from hi. Breadth +145 and tick -169. Actual IBHI is 1 tick below and an LVN so I front ran it by a tick. Mid 1 pt below and vpoc 2 pts below. We have a potential double distribution profile set up. Scratched after 1:15 min and .75 MA vs .75 MF because it was 2:40pm and obviously the trade didn't work as expected so took off before the closing orders came in. Would have been loser.




Recap
Spoos opened OAIR right at the top of yesterdays VA and were greeted with responsive sellers. They were unable to to take it even to yesterdays VAL before buyers stepped in. We had a couple of hours of chop inside a 3 handle range with an upside bias as sellers were unable to auction it to the mc vpoc after 9:45. Buyers finally took out the IBHI and printed a 1419 HOD but it was sold and sent back inside the IB where it closed. So it seems an upside test was performed and while buyers didnt pass, neither did the bears really. I was expecting a serious seller response around 1519 and basically ended up with a weak slap. Vpoc shifted up a point, value shifted overlapping higher and price up a few points. Volume was garbage at 1.0 mil.

I again struggled to find trades today. The one I did do would have been a loser had I not scratched. However, I do think I finally learned something about the IB set up thanks to Josh- look for acceptance on the breakout before playing the rotation back away from the IB. I just ran some stats on my trades and I have a 36% win rate, a 42% loss rate and a 20% scratch rate. (with the remaining 2% being partials) Thats a lot of scratches but the good news is that I'm scratching more losers than winners. Need to step my game up.

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  #112 (permalink)
Michigan, Jackson
 
Experience: Intermediate
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nice analysis, Profiler. Market Delta sells a delta divergent indicator that initiates when price is either side of the +1 or -1 standard deviation bands. Can you purchase or use anything like that for your charting? Are you using RT charts? Anyway, I can provide an additional confirmation. It also let's you know when price is turning around. Not always but much of time. It may be a helpful tool.

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  #113 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
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Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
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Economic data: retail sales, import/export, biz inventories

ON Profile: Very tight range overnight, only 3.5 pts range so far, never seen it that small. Spoos are currently trading above yesterdays hi which would mean new 5 year hi's and also took out the adjusted contract all time hi by a tick. Vpoc sitting at 1517 and the low is just a tick below settlement. So definitely upside bias, albeit with little conviction or participation.



Retail sales could change that equation so I will wait til after that number to continue my write-up. OK so they are out and no big deal, just a couple ticks lower. So, very interesting day on tap. Looking for an OAOR or OAIR above value on the cusp of 5 year hi's again. Normally I would expect responsive selling with this type of open but based on yesterdays reaction by sellers at this level I don't think I can count on that as it was so weak. So I think market opens and first move is up. I think this has the makings of the riskiest opening in awhile with a potential drive higher early that fails and retrace's everything through yesterdays lo. But for now, the trend on all time frames is up.

Levels Above: none

Levels Below: 1414.5 nvpoc, 1413.25 mc vpoc*, 1410.75 CLVN*, 1505 mc hvn, 1502.75 CHVN, 1498.75 CLVN*

Hypo#1- Spoos open OAIR/OR above value, rotate higher above pHi, if it holds then grinds higher thru the day, if drops back into pRange expecting trade down to 1413.25 then 1410.75.

Hypo#2- Spoos open OAIR/OR and find responsive selling down to 1414.5/1413.5 to pick up buyers, if they show up grind higher, otherwise rotate to other side of balance at 1411.

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  #114 (permalink)
NYC + NY / USA
 
Experience: Advanced
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kronie's Avatar
 
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you may have answered or stated this previously, but did you take one of those classes that teach you to read the dome / book?, and then read the order flow (sometimes viewed as the same thing)?

only because I am seeing similar patterns in those that have, and similar conclusions, as they grow through accepting those precepts.

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  #115 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
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Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
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kronie View Post
you may have answered or stated this previously, but did you take one of those classes that teach you to read the dome / book?, and then read the order flow (sometimes viewed as the same thing)?

only because I am seeing similar patterns in those that have, and similar conclusions, as they grow through accepting those precepts.

I have not. I was a scalper for 9 years previously though and all i did was read the dom/work the book. very little translates for me in todays market though, i see nothing in the dom anymore.

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  #116 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
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1. Long 1519.5 mid on 2.5 pt pb with breadth +184 and tick -86. Vpoc above at 1520.5 and OPEN 1 tick below while pHi 2 ticks below thinking they can offer support for a rotation back up. Hi at 1522 looks mostly good except for large print at top tick of 2258 contracts. Breadth trending lower. Stopped after 30 min and .5 MF.

2. Bot 1515.25 by accident. Scratched immediately. Will not count in trade log.

3. Sold 1518.25 mid/lvn/OSLO on 3.5 pt move. Breadth is +102 and tick +130. Rotation into it was pretty pathetic as it grinded up very slow and had lots of consolidation but I still took it because of the confluence of 3 things. Scaled after 21 mins and .25 MA. It worked, wow. Second scale given.

4. Long 1513.25 mc vpoc/ pLVN on 5.25 pt move with breadth -60 and tick -360. Tick divergence as well. Scaled after 12 mins and .25 MA. Second scale given.




Recap
Spoos opened either OAOR or ORR, tough to say. But it was a difficult opening hour to read as spoos went into prior range twice (which maybe was big clue I missed) while also establishing vpoc above pHi (that lasted until waning moments). But on final entry into pRange the sellers took over and auctioned it down to the mc vpoc where buyers were found and they took it up into the close. Vpoc shifted a few points higher, value overlapping higher and price basically unch. Volume was weak. Profile shape is pretty fugly, its symmetrical but I wouldnt call it balanced. Seems like buyers and sellers were both pretty indecisive about what to do today. Today's action didn't do much to change the bigger picture. Mc vpoc stays the same after day but value was dragged a bit higher. I really thought after falling back into prior range that sellers would take over and auction it down to the other side of balance at 1511 but buyers were too anxious and didnt let it fall below mc vpoc.

A winning day today!!! Who lives in chicago and wants to get some coke tonight??? Anyone? Kidding. What is this, my first winner in 3 weeks? Feels good, gonna leave it at that.

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  #117 (permalink)
Tulsa, OK
 
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Profiler View Post
I was a scalper for 9 years previously though and all i did was read the dom/work the book. very little translates for me in todays market though, i see nothing in the dom anymore.

This always amazes me, b/c it seems like it your background would be such a huge advantage. However, time and time again, former floor or dom scalpers echo your thoughts: screen-based trading is a completely different game.

Thanks for sharing your journey and the reminder that screen-based trading is its own game.

Also, a belated congrats on your marriage! Hope it was a fun day and that you two have many many years filled with good times

Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity. ~ Seneca
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  #118 (permalink)
San Diego California
 
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Profiler View Post
I have not. I was a scalper for 9 years previously though and all i did was read the dom/work the book. very little translates for me in todays market though, i see nothing in the dom anymore.

2, you are a tape reader you need to read tape, or if you are going to learn a new language learn to read volume, as tape. i think that you might do better with another chart set up. as maybe it is just from the recap view point but your posts come off as an analytical, I can never trade when I am in a analytical mindset. also you are not sending to much time as i would think discussing your entry set ups, until that thought process is binary i would not think that you would find what it is you are looking for. - for what it is worth.
reading voluming you need to read flow of ask vs bid orders and the net/delta between them. this is the defining difference between what is volume and orderflow, which is what (i am guessing that you lost on the dom is the orderflow you had tapped into)

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  #119 (permalink)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Experience: Beginner
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Trading: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
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jupiejupe View Post
i am guessing that you lost on the dom is the orderflow you had tapped into

yes, the order flow is what i lost. its all too fast now and there is no size anymore. even 2 years ago in the product i traded there were still humans clipping 200, 500, 1000 lots with regularity. key pieces of info to take notice of. now 2000 will trade in the blink of an eye and will be all in lots smaller than 10. i've thought that maybe footprint would help bring back some feel for me but i will only look into that later. for now, im trying to figure out how the market works on a different level and thats hard enough.

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  #120 (permalink)
Michigan, Jackson
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Good yesterday trading, Profiler. Delta divergence is key to reading the true "open interest" of a market. Delta always returns its previous high or low where inventory is found.

I get a lot out of your analysis. Thank you. Also, sharing it helps to ingrain the learning into your own mind. That's why I do it.

COTtrader

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