Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling - Trading Journals | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling
Updated: Views / Replies:46,210 / 625
Created: by Profiler Attachments:558

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 558  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling

  #91 (permalink)
Elite Member
Michigan, Jackson
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT and TS
Broker/Data: NT Continuum
Favorite Futures: ES, CL
 
Posts: 858 since Jul 2009
Thanks: 389 given, 547 received

Couldn't agree more.



josh View Post
Here's a mental checklist that guided that decision. I don't think it's a mental issue for you, I think it's understanding the context and managing expectations based on that.

1) Friday's trade established 11s as unfairly low prices.
2) Early trade on Monday confirmed that.
3) The B period dip below 10.75 served to run stops, and to confirm lack of supply below 10.75, as evidenced by the minor retest of 10.75 on C period. Thus, the real demand is at 11s, and below 11s is really excess.
4) I want to be long this market in general, period. So, where do I want to do this?
5) See the profile as it looked at the time. Where do the unfair prices begin on the low side? Is this a balanced market? Yes--a lazy attempt at a selloff failed early, and a lazy attempt a new highs failed later. So why would I expect something different this time? And why would I expect a downside breakout in a market which is clearly biased long, on a day with low relative volume and range, and has shown no ability to even really auction below established value?
6) Look at the VWAP at the time. Is that indicative of a market which is looking to breakout in either direction?


Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to COTtrader for this post:
 
  #92 (permalink)
Elite Member
Georgia, US
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Various
Favorite Futures: Various
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 4,897 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 5,143 given, 11,242 received


Profiler View Post
why wouldnt you think this time it could break?

So today we open in range, at the upper VPOC. Test of highs finds no buyers to auction higher, so we have auctioned lower. Maybe we won't get there, but my expectation is an auction to 11, and I am just crazy enough to plan to buy it again. It worked on Friday, and all day yesterday, so why would I expect different today with similar market conditions? Even if it does not work, I have no objective reason to expect something different, so I will observe, and I will buy it almost guaranteed. If I get run over, then it is valuable information and then I will adapt to the new conditions.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to josh for this post:
 
  #93 (permalink)
Elite Member
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Favorite Futures: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 589 received


what do you make of this context now? breaking out to new RTH highs on poor volume and breadth after a very rotational start to the day. I'm looking at selling the ONH from yesterday at 1517, is it reasonable to assume I can expect a reaction there? or should i be focusing on finding a long due to all time frame up trend?

Reply With Quote
 
  #94 (permalink)
Elite Member
Michigan, Jackson
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT and TS
Broker/Data: NT Continuum
Favorite Futures: ES, CL
 
Posts: 858 since Jul 2009
Thanks: 389 given, 547 received

Should we break above 17 I see an extension to the 21 where Weekly and monthly resistances are found together.

Wait to sell around the 20's is what my plan is or to look for a buy off the ON low @ 08.


Profiler View Post
what do you make of this context now? breaking out to new RTH highs on poor volume and breadth after a very rotational start to the day. I'm looking at selling the ONH from yesterday at 1517, is it reasonable to assume I can expect a reaction there? or should i be focusing on finding a long due to all time frame up trend?


Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to COTtrader for this post:
 
  #95 (permalink)
Elite Member
Georgia, US
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Various
Favorite Futures: Various
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 4,897 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 5,143 given, 11,242 received


Profiler View Post
what do you make of this context now? breaking out to new RTH highs on poor volume and breadth after a very rotational start to the day. I'm looking at selling the ONH from yesterday at 1517, is it reasonable to assume I can expect a reaction there? or should i be focusing on finding a long due to all time frame up trend?

Poor volume means nothing. It means that there are not many sellers standing in the way to retard the move, just as much as it means there is not much participation and initiative buying.

I bought 13.50 before the push to 16.25, but was out at 15. I failed to buy it again, which I absolutely should have and simply made a mistake in not following through with my idea.

I do not put much weight into non-RTH prices in general anymore. Is it reasonable to expect a rotation at 1517? I don't know, but I can tell you that I will not sell new 5 year highs But that does not mean you should not, if that is what you think will work.

What I see is a market that is up, has broken out, has retested the VPOC at 13s which held like a charm, and is trading above that. If it gets below that, I would maybe consider a sell. But I see a market that is searching for unfair highs, and has not yet proven to me that it has found them. I see TICK in the green for about 80% of the day so far, and only a few prints below 0 since 10am. So I see context bullish, and sentiment bullish. But this is just my read on things, and yours may be different.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to josh for this post:
 
  #96 (permalink)
Elite Member
Georgia, US
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Various
Favorite Futures: Various
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 4,897 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 5,143 given, 11,242 received

Profiler, the open at 13.75, the vpoc at 13.25, mid at 14, excess below 13.25 (A period), heavy volume with buyers stepping in here at this test of 13.75, has led me to buy at 14; should have been 13.50 as I mentioned earlier, but still a favorable risk profile here. Target is your ON 17 from a few days ago. SPX 1523 is resistance from 2007, corresponds roughly with ES 1518, so I will shoot for this area. Win or lose, it is, to me, the highest probability trade, so I take it.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to josh for this post:
 
  #97 (permalink)
Elite Member
Michigan, Jackson
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT and TS
Broker/Data: NT Continuum
Favorite Futures: ES, CL
 
Posts: 858 since Jul 2009
Thanks: 389 given, 547 received

Nice setup Josh. I expect a test of the high or higher today.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to COTtrader for this post:
 
  #98 (permalink)
Elite Member
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC, S5T
Favorite Futures: Es
 
Posts: 617 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 321 given, 589 received

nice trade josh, almost a scale so far with no heat. but i dont get it. i see a trade initiated in the middle of balance, both today's and overall last 3 days. in my mind, the "only" thing working for you is the overall up trend on all time frames. what is your definition of excess? i look at the MP for today and don't really see that buying tail as excess, its only 1.25 pts after all. But maybe thats where im wrong, considering the overall range is only 4.25, maybe it is significant.

Reply With Quote
 
  #99 (permalink)
Elite Member
Michigan, Jackson
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT and TS
Broker/Data: NT Continuum
Favorite Futures: ES, CL
 
Posts: 858 since Jul 2009
Thanks: 389 given, 547 received

Delta needs to strengthen... I think, to push up from here.

Attached Thumbnails
Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling-es_5mindelta.png  
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to COTtrader for this post:
 
  #100 (permalink)
Elite Member
Georgia, US
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: Various
Favorite Futures: Various
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 4,897 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 5,143 given, 11,242 received



Profiler View Post
nice trade josh, almost a scale so far with no heat. but i dont get it. i see a trade initiated in the middle of balance, both today's and overall last 3 days. in my mind, the "only" thing working for you is the overall up trend on all time frames. what is your definition of excess? i look at the MP for today and don't really see that buying tail as excess, its only 1.25 pts after all. But maybe thats where im wrong, considering the overall range is only 4.25, maybe it is significant.

BTW, closed flat at 15.50. Maybe closed early, but adapted and did what I thought was best at the time. Will definitely leave money on the table this way sometimes, but did not get full position on at 14, so better to be flat for me.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


We have a market which clearly wants to go up. But volume is 13% below a normal value, and range is 38% below normal. The profile is quite balanced, despite the bullish tendency. With only a 4.25 range, the VAL is 13.75 while the VPOC is 14.50, only 3 ticks away.. So, the buy at 14 was actually very close to the unfair lows below 13.75, despite the fair price being 14.50, with such a small range. The 4 tick excess in A period accounts for over 20% of the day's range... so, it's not an ideal excess, but it is still excess nonetheless, in my book anyway.

For the day, 14.50 may be the fair price, but consider the context--the market broke below the most fair price for the last 2 days early on. It could not hold, and traded to new highs as it broke out of balance. As of yet, it has not managed to trade below that 2-day fair price. So buyers are willing to pay above fair value, today. So yes, it's a trade initiated in the middle of balance, but the fact that we have broken above that balance, and are unable to trade below that, makes a long an attractive trade for me at that location.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to josh for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > Learning to trade the ES using volume profiling

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Jigsaw Trading: TBA

Elite only

FuturesTrader71: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

Jan 18

RandBots: TBA

Jan 23

GFF Brokers & CME Group: Futures & Bitcoin

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Gom Profiling Toolkit for Strategies (Market/Volume Profile) gomi The Elite Circle 173 November 4th, 2015 04:50 PM
Learning how to play guitar...reminds me of learning how to trade shodson Beginners and Introductions 10 September 16th, 2013 06:22 PM
Using DAX to trade the ES - better than volume trendisyourfriend The Elite Circle 40 July 13th, 2010 12:31 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:17 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-16 in 0.15 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.226.113.250