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I can't help but notice that your trades were the "same".
As a guy that used to manage portfolios, I have to say that by taking the same trade in such correlated markets, you might as well be putting on a double sized position in either one of those markets.
You are probably already aware of this?
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
One of the things that I've tried to emphasize for myself and others in this thread is the concept of consistency over time in order to avoid coming to conclusions/judgments/decisions based on insufficient data/experience.
A short trip back to 04/02 and 04/03 will show that, regardless of market correlation, many of the trades I took are quite different between the two. I treat them as separate, and as such, a "signal" in one market is not a factor in creating a tradeable situation in the other.
As someone who used to manage portfolios, I'm sure you are aware that the approach used to trade "correlated markets" is an important factor in determining whether or not those positions behave in the "same" way and/or with the "same" outcomes.
-AT
"Is it hard? Not if you have the right attitude. It's having the right attitude that's hard." - Robert Pirsig
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I've completed my first week of using my "longer-term," and more discretionary approach. As the focus of this exercise is not on "improving" my method, and as the basic idea seems to be working well enough, I won't be making any changes to it for now (more about this below).
This week I said, "With my longer-term approach M6E/6E has quickly become less appealing due to its choppy action during the US Futures RTH session," but, as is often the case when I make an assumption based on insufficient data, the very next day it had a screaming session, and Friday was another very active day. I still believe that M6E is a good vehicle for transitioning to live trading so I want to continue to work with it and get used to it. Also, the chat room I'm currently in is beginning to put more emphasis on 6E and M6E, so I'll have additional resources available to me for working with it appropriately.
I felt a little out of sorts this week with the transition I made from one approach to another, and this highlights, for me, the benefit that working in a consistent manner brings in the form of calm and focus.
I'm actually looking forward to trading one approach for a period of time again - I'm not sure I could have said that a couple of months ago.
A look at the stats
On Thursday I said I would be eliminating the M6E data from my stats, but I'm not going to do that since I intend to continue trading it. The stats below include the three markets I traded this week (M6E, NQ and YM), and will continue to do so for the time being.
Because I only have a few trades (15) in this sample so far, my Expectancy is basically irrelevant right now. I'll probably post a chart of it next week.
Here are the results of this week of trading my longer-term approach:
I'd like to take a moment to give a few "thank you's" because of some of the experiences I've had lately.
First, I'd like to thank the traders in this community who are offering me their words of encouragement as well as sharing their knowledge of trading in general. Because my main (nearly entire) focus is on consistency, new ideas or input about the markets I'm trading or the method I'm using are appreciated, but are something that I can't really implement or work with at this point. I'll be there soon enough.
The main reason I'm posting my charts every day is in order keep myself accountable for my objective of remaining consistent with my approach and to show the grind of my day in and day out trading experiences. I track my results and make notes about my entries and exits so I can improve later, but I'm not posting the charts here for analysis purposes.
Still, I'm grateful for the willingness of so many to share with me, and it just shows that this trading community has a lot of great people in it. So, thank you!
Second, I want to go back to the very beginning of this process and thank one of the traders who shared things that really hit me hard and were at least partially responsible for my starting this exercise. @PandaWarrior , hosted a webinar on Big Mike's with concepts and topics that had a big impact on me, such as his IR*H=NR formula, his "CCPP" acronym (Constant Change Prevents Profitability), his emphasis on becoming a "specialist," "P7," "CCFG," the "Elevator Speech, " and the IPE Ratio. I watched his main presentation (first 30 minutes) again today and got more out of it than I did the first time. Thank you PW.
Last, I want to thank @FuturesTrader71 and the crew at Stage 5 Trading. Yesterday (Friday) was the first in a regular (semi-weekly) schedule of "Ask A Question" webinars where clients have the opportunity to get on the mic to ask questions and have discussions with the group and FT71. I made my first-time-ever appearance "on the air," and having a chance to chat in that kind of format was a pleasure. So thank you Stage 5 and FT71 for working to develop that kind of environment for traders.
Back to the training
As I said on Thursday, it's time for me to get back to the core of this exercise which is consistency. My current sample size is larger than I was using before at 30 trades (through trade #323). I need to stick with my current method long enough to begin to get experience with it and to start getting feedback from the markets - just as I was doing before.
I've fallen out of my consistent diet and exercise routine somewhat too. The earlier mornings with M6E/6E made it difficult to squeeze my workout into the morning so I stopped. Today I'll be getting my diet and exercise routine back on track.
I'm really finding out how important it is to be focused on my objectives and what I'm trying to accomplish in my life. It's easy to get bogged down in everyday stuff, little annoyances, and unpleasant things that need to be dealt with.
And this is why I continue to lean on my militaristic approach. It gives me an attitude of strength and focus, and I'm finding extraordinary value in that.
This weekend and upcoming week, I will be focused on maintaining a positive mode, visualizing the success that I want in all areas of my life, and taking action toward achieving those things.
"Is it hard? Not if you have the right attitude. It's having the right attitude that's hard." - Robert Pirsig
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One of primary weapons in mental training is pushing the brain a little bit to panic situations in a controlled manner. I'll give you an example. Years ago, I took HUET (Helicopter Underwater Egress Training), given to offshore oil & gas workers. You are strapped in a seat in a box, submerged under cold(ish) water, then the box is tuned upside down underwater with a re-breather. You undo your seat belt and get out of the box and surface up.
Most pass, some take a few moments to unstrap and a few don't. I found this a great way to train your mind in a fight or flight situation - the mind plays tricks on you. And the panic trigger is hyper sensitized. After a few botched tries, I started to understand what I was involuntarily doing. During a recent trip to Dallas and Houston, I went to Space Center in Houston where there is such a course and asked them to keep me underwater, upside down for a little bit longer without a re-breather (6 times). You learn that panic cannot be extinguished, you learn to live with it, face it and hope to make rational calm decisions in its presence. Its an interesting experience.
I wonder what goes on in the mind of these tribesmen or these kids? These two videos always blow my mind (even after having watched them over a dozen times).
A good write up on mindfulness in FoF here : Chaos or Calm.
Mission Plan: 2013.04.04.293-323 Theaters of Operation: Mike Six Echo Mike Three, November Quebec Mike Three, Yankee Mike Mike Three.
Pre-Mission Prep
06:55 Starting pre-mission prep...Going through checklist...
SitRep
07:26 Still working to get up earlier and then had some Ninja problems, so late getting 6E up and running. Staying calm and finishing checklist prep items...
SitRep
08:50 YM is powering lower and I'm having strong feelings of missing out on a good move even though I haven't had a clear opportunity to enter.
Sortie #298
09:47 Long YM.
Long on break of second bullish candle that pushed beyond halfway of the previous large bear candle, after retest of ORL and 50% of YR. Target is HOD/ORH. Don't like the fact that I'm entering into OR Mid resistance though.
09:51 Stop moved to low of entry bar - if price comes back this far down, I don't want to be in it.
10:08 Price has come down to within 2 ticks of my modified stop.
10:11 Stop to low of last completed candle - with its long lower tail, it is essentially a swing low.
10:16 I didn't like the fact that 3 M10 bars tested OR Mid and the last 2 couldn't close above it. Moved target to BE (because price was below entry by that time). Prepping to go short.
10:18 Exit at BE. -0 ticks.
Prep for re-tasking.
Sortie #299
10:11 Short M6E. 1 tick negative slippage on entry.
Short after test of ORL. Target is 50% of YR.
10:30 Price has created a Doji/Hammer at MM of OR and broke LOD by only 1 tick. I wouldn't take a long position here, but this is a formation that's too strong to ignore. I've moved my stop to the high of this bar.
10:41 Target reached. +15 ticks.
Prep for re-tasking.
Sortie #300
10:36 Short NQ.
Short after several tests of OR Mid. Not a clean setup though because indexes are choppy and range-bound so far. Target is MM of OR and 50% of YR.
10:50 I'm short YM now and it dropped pretty decisively, but NQ is staying strong.
11:12 Stop to high of doji that retested YC - with its long upper tail, it is essentially a swing high.
11:40 I ignored the Doji/Hammer at OR FE and price shot up after it. May have been a mistake.
*** This situation is identical to the situation I had above on M6E (trade #299), and I realize now that the only reason I didn't take the same precaution here was because I didn't want to take such a small amount of profit if it stopped me out. As it turned out, I paid a much bigger price for not doing what I knew I should.
12:31 No Joy. -17 ticks.
Prep for re-tasking.
Sortie #301
10:48 Short YM. 2 ticks negative slippage on entry.
Short after multiple tests of OR Mid. Target is OR FE.
12:14 No Joy. -15 ticks.
Prep for re-tasking.
AAR
Objective: Follow mission plan with extreme prejudice and do the best I can with what I've learned so far.
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Outcome: I followed my plan, but the discretionary portion of my trading could have been better. What pleases me though is that I'm still able to see things that I can do to improve how I'm operating.
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Observations: During my last trade and after, I could feel myself letting my lack of success today affect my sense of self-worth and activate all the tentacles attached to all the other parts of my life that trading affects.
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I really had to refocus my thoughts, and among other things, ask myself, "Was my objective today to make (simulated) money?" And, although I found it a little bit hard to say, my answer was, "No." So then I asked myself, "Then what was your objective?" The answer was, "To trade the best that I know how right now and to follow my plan." And then the question was, "Did I do that?" And the answer was, "Yes."
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I knew that I wasn't in the best state of mind to continue, and I had some pressing things that needed to be taken care of, so I got away from my screens and did those things. As I type this I'm feeling much better not just about my trading, but about getting things knocked out that were weighing on me.
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So I may not be happy with my P/L today, but I know that I did my best, that I followed my plan, that I realized the state of mind I was in, that I removed myself from my screens so there would be no access to revenge trading, and that I deliberately relaxed myself so I could allow myself to see if there was something I could learn from today.
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And again, even though I didn't execute in a way that allowed me to take advantage of it, I'm still very pleased with the way price is reacting at and around my levels.
"Is it hard? Not if you have the right attitude. It's having the right attitude that's hard." - Robert Pirsig
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Theaters of Operation: Mike Six Echo Mike Three, November Quebec Mike Three, Yankee Mike Mike Three.
Pre-Mission Prep
07:05 Lot of things going on at the house this morning, so getting a late start again. Working on pre-mission prep...Going through checklist...
Trade #302
08:00 Long M6E. 2 ticks negative slippage on entry.
Long after pullback and test/pierce of OR Mid. Target is OR FE.
08:02 Price shot up to hit my target level before I could get my exit order moved, and now price has pulled back sharply. I'll have to wait to see if price will try to move back up there again.
08:12 Stop to low of entry bar.
08:18 Price has come back up to within 1 tick of my target.
08:22 Stop to low of last completed bar. I don't really want to do this, but price has tested my target level twice now, and I'm learning to be more conservative with my trades. If I get stopped out here, I'll just have to wait for another opportunity.
08:23 Stopped out. -1 tick.
Prep for re-tasking.
Trade #303
09:07 Short M6E. 2 ticks negative slippage on entry.
Short after break of ORL/LOD and test back up. Target is OR MM.
09:12 Stop to high of entry bar.
09:13 I can see now that this was a low probability trade because it's just a continuation trade after 4 previous bear candles in a row and right into OR FE.
09:17 This trade had terrible R:R too.
09:19 Stopped out. -13 ticks.
09:35 I was only stopped by 3 ticks and price turned back around to hit my target.
Prep for re-tasking.
Trade #304
09:51 Short YM.
Short after test of HOD Bearish Engulfing-like pattern (on last 2 bearish bars). Target is OR FE. Stop is the last swing high.
10:58 Stopped out. -13 ticks.
Prep for re-tasking.
SitRep
11:18 I had to deal with a minor family emergency (dog to the vet) and I left trade #304 on while I was gone.
Regardless of what I might have done if I had been here, this is the point (after a few losing trades) that I usually begin to mentally check out, thinking that I've missed the good moves for the day or whatever.
I'm not going to do that today. I'm going to stay focused now that I'm back in my office and wait for a clean setup.
The last two trades today have really been mediocre setups and I need to avoid stuff like that.
Trade #305
11:26 LongNQ.
Long after retest of YC, three alternating bars pattern, and in anticipation of a break above YH. Target is OR FE.
12:02 Target reached. +28 ticks. WTF?! I got 4 ticks of negative slippage on the exit (using an MIT order) in sim!
Prep for re-tasking.
Mission complete. RTB for AAR.
14:30 New entry cut-off time. Finished for the day.
AAR
Objective: Follow mission plan with extreme prejudice and do the best I can with what I've learned so far.
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Outcome: I took a couple of marginal trades today that I shouldn't have.
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Observations: Because I was getting a little bit frustrated with the fact that the market was making moves but I wasn't getting clear setups, I found myself wanting to look for a better way to look at the markets.
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But, I can easily see that if I will just focus on the charts that I have in front of me, I will begin to get better at seeing my spots. I have to build my skills.
"Is it hard? Not if you have the right attitude. It's having the right attitude that's hard." - Robert Pirsig
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I spent today working on future plans for my trading and doing some testing, so no stats for today. I'm posting my charts so I have the ability to review them later.
"Is it hard? Not if you have the right attitude. It's having the right attitude that's hard." - Robert Pirsig
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Mission Plan: In development. Theater of Operation: Mike Six Echo Mike Three.
Pre-Mission Prep
07:10 Late...Starting pre-mission prep...Going through checklist...
Trade #304
08:24 Long M6E.
Long on test of O/N 50% and ETH 50%.
09:04 Target reached. +14 ticks.
Prep for re-tasking.
Mission complete. RTB for AAR.
Finished for the day.
AAR
Objective: Follow mission plan with extreme prejudice and do the best I can with what I've learned so far.
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Outcome: Followed my plan, but...
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Observations: Since I began Phase 2 I've been feeling increasingly lost. In fact, a little while after the M6E trade this morning I left the office and took a drive around my favorite parts of Dallas. This is something I've done often in the past to get in a better mood and straighten my thoughts out.
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While I was driving I realized that I've gotten off course with my trading. It has been so gradual that I didn't realize it, even though I've been struggling. I'm not going to go into a lengthy discussion about how I've gotten off course because it's all here in my journal. And it is only because I've kept this journal that I can see what has happened.
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There's something I want from my trading; a core objective I have for my trading and a way that I'd like for my trading "work" to be. And I've veered away from that. I'm not going to discuss what that thing is, because it's different for everyone, and at this point I'm not ready to explain it or defend it, but I think that I'm finding out how important it is to keep that "core objective" in the forefront so I can stay on track.
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I don't have a specific plan yet, but I will be getting back to "knowing my place" and getting my method back to the basics that are aligned with the core objective I have for my trading.
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It's a process...
"Is it hard? Not if you have the right attitude. It's having the right attitude that's hard." - Robert Pirsig
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As a reader who spent many of the Fri and Sat nights of his youth in N. Dallas, cruising Greenville Ave and racing between stop lights on Forest Ln (until that last "Contest of Speed" thing...), I can appreciate what spending some wheel time in that town can do for your mental and emotional well being.
Casual observation and for what it's worth, but are you having fun? It seems that the thrill is gone since Phase 2 began. Yes, it's your livelihood and a serious matter, but if you aren't sitting down at the computer with a smile on your face, what's the point? I could be way off, and if so I apologize.
