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The Way of the AttitudeTrader
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The Way of the AttitudeTrader

  #161 (permalink)
Attitude is everything.
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, T4
Broker/Data: IQFeed
Favorite Futures: 6E
 
AttitudeTrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 358 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 6,868 given, 857 received

Training Day 60

Mission Plan: In development.
Theater of Operation: Mike Six Echo Mike Three

Pre-Mission Prep
05:40 Going through checklist...Starting pre-mission prep...

Trade #314
06:21 Short. Short on pullback to and test of 50% of yesterday's RTH major drop/swing.
07:44 Stopped out. -10 ticks.
I was targeting yesterday's RTH low, which was obviously too far at this point. I need to manage my trades a little differently.

Trade #315
07:50 Short. Short on pullback to and retest of 50% of yesterday's RTH major drop/swing.
09:05 Target reached. +26 ticks.
I had a more conservative target for this trade: previous swing low which was nearly a double bottom with the swing low prior to it, and was also 50% of current range. Ended up turning after testing AZ (Ambush Zone = 50-61.8% retracement).

Trade #316
11:18 Short. Short on test of AZ of yesterday's RTH major drop/swing and FE of prior down swing.
12:10 Target reached. +10 ticks.
Tight target because I'm going against an apparent short term uptrend.

Mission complete. RTB for AAR.
I'm finished for the day. I have the bias that 6E movement slows down a lot by 11:00-12:00CT, so I didn't expect much from my last trade. But I was wrong. I'll just have to keep trading it for a while to see if it's worth trading longer into the day.

AAR
  • Objective: Trade the M6E the best I can for now and continue to work on developing my trading plan.
    -
  • Outcome: I traded relatively well, but I need to work on how I'm going to manage my trades - I let my first trade go from 24 MFE to a 10-tick stop out.
    -
  • Observations: I'm still finding trading the M6E/6E very slow. And yet, I'm making better trades in it than I'm able to do in the ES (or other indexes) apparently. I'm just going to have to get used to it.
Note: First trade on the Analyzer was a carryover from yesterday's testing. It's not included in my stats.

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"Is it hard? Not if you have the right attitude. It's having the right attitude that's hard." - Robert Pirsig
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  #162 (permalink)
Attitude is everything.
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, T4
Broker/Data: IQFeed
Favorite Futures: 6E
 
AttitudeTrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 358 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 6,868 given, 857 received

Training Day 61

Mission Plan: In development.
Theater of Operation: Mike Six Echo Mike Three

Pre-Mission Prep
05:35 Going through checklist...Starting pre-mission prep...

Trade #317
06:18 Long after pullback and third test of a previous resistance level. This is a bit above the 50% level where I wanted to enter. Target is FE of yesterday's RTH range and AZ of the major drop on 04/17.
06:28 Holding through German Buba Pres Speech.
06:34 Stopped out. -10 ticks.
I was afraid of missing out so I got into this one at a not-very-good level.

Trade #318
06:39 Long after pullback to 50% (mentioned above) of previous upswing. Target is again FE of yesterday's RTH range and AZ of the major drop on 04/17.
07:13 Price has spiked up quickly. Stop moved to BE+1.
07:13 Adjusted target to previous support level (from yesterday)
07:14 Target reached. +33 ticks. Turned out to be a very good place to exit.

Mission complete. RTB for AAR.
Finished for the day.


AAR
  • Objective: Trade the M6E the best I can for now and continue to work on developing my trading plan.
    -
  • Outcome: I was able to make a decent profit for today in two trades. Because price was really moving around and I wasn't keen to take any more risks, I just stood aside.
    -
  • Observations: My first trade was early due to fear of missing out on a possible move. My second entry was much better.
    -
    I got very lucky with my exit, because my initial target was further up. I changed it though because the second bar of the impulse move up was not showing as much strength as the first, and I didn't want to risk the profits that I had for an additional 6 or 7 ticks. However, my original target was hit beautifully on the next spike up later in the day.
    -
    There were definitely additional decent opportunities later in the day. Although I didn't take advantage of them, I'm pleased to see them.

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Last edited by AttitudeTrader; April 19th, 2013 at 07:32 PM.
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  #163 (permalink)
Attitude is everything.
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, T4
Broker/Data: IQFeed
Favorite Futures: 6E
 
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Posts: 358 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 6,868 given, 857 received

Weekend Review and Stats


A review

During April I've bounced around between different markets in an effort to find which one(s) I want to focus on. I've been going back and forth about what I'm trying to accomplish and what market(s) would suit that best.

In last week's review post I talked about using the very simple original method I started this whole training exercise with, but it wasn't fitting in with some of the objectives I had defined. And on Wednesday I did a lot of thinking and made some new decisions.

I started using a bigger-picture approach (compared to the style I was trying to use) toward the beginning of this month, and on Thursday and Friday I went back to trading that way again.

I've been unsure of this approach because I haven't spent enough time with it, but more importantly, it has put me in a position of being unable to specifically predefine a "setup." There are a confluence of things that go into the trades that I'm taking, and so there's a lot of "vagueness" in it for me right now.

Things are becoming clearer though and for the time being I'm planning to continue with M6E/6E.

Moving toward a goal

For the last couple of weeks I've wanted to start moving toward some measurable goal. What I've been doing up to this point has been geared toward sample sizes. I'll continue to use sample sizes, but I wanted to accomplish something specific.

I had some ideas about what I could do to move forward and make this more "real." I thought about going live, but I haven't proven (to myself) that I'm ready for that yet. I thought about doing a TST Combine, but I'm also not quite ready to pony up $160+ to do something that I'm not confident I can pass.

So I came up with a solution: I decided to do my own simulated TST Combine, but modified for the M6E that I'm trading. I got the criteria together for one of the combines, cut it by 1/10 (M6E trades at 1/10 tick value of the 6E), and created a stats grid to track my progress.

There are some benefits (I believe) to using the M6E over the 6E for this exercise. Commissions on M6E are quite a bit higher relative to the full 6E contract, which creates a higher "cost to do business." Liquidity is much lower in the M6E than in the full 6E contract, which creates a lot of slippage. So, if I can overcome those things and meet the combine criteria, I will consider it an important accomplishment. Additionally, when I do go live, it will most likely be with the M6E.

For this combine I'm using the stats from my first day of trading my current approach on April 2. I didn't trade M6E every day because I was trying other markets, so I still have a few days of my combine left.

Once I decided to do this, it was on my mind as I was trading, so I already know that it can have an affect on my thinking in much the way that doing an actual combine might.

Pass or fail

If I can't pass it within the time and criteria parameters, then I'll start over and do another one. If I can complete this and pass the criteria, it will give me a feeling of accomplishment and possibly more confidence in my progress. It also might cause me to need to make some more decisions.

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"Is it hard? Not if you have the right attitude. It's having the right attitude that's hard." - Robert Pirsig
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  #164 (permalink)
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Wecome back AT! Drive time paid off.

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  #165 (permalink)
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AttitudeTrader View Post


Moving toward a goal

For the last couple of weeks I've wanted to start moving toward some measurable goal. What I've been doing up to this point has been geared toward sample sizes. I'll continue to use sample sizes, but I wanted to accomplish something specific.

I had some ideas about what I could do to move forward and make this more "real." I thought about going live, but I haven't proven (to myself) that I'm ready for that yet. I thought about doing a TST Combine, but I'm also not quite ready to pony up $160+ to do something that I'm not confident I can pass.

So I came up with a solution: I decided to do my own simulated TST Combine, but modified for the M6E that I'm trading. I got the criteria together for one of the combines, cut it by 1/10 (M6E trades at 1/10 tick value of the 6E), and created a stats grid to track my progress.

There are some benefits (I believe) to using the M6E over the 6E for this exercise. Commissions on M6E are quite a bit higher relative to the full 6E contract, which creates a higher "cost to do business." Liquidity is much lower in the M6E than in the full 6E contract, which creates a lot of slippage. So, if I can overcome those things and meet the combine criteria, I will consider it an important accomplishment. Additionally, when I do go live, it will most likely be with the M6E.

For this combine I'm using the stats from my first day of trading my current approach on April 2. I didn't trade M6E every day because I was trying other markets, so I still have a few days of my combine left.

Once I decided to do this, it was on my mind as I was trading, so I already know that it can have an affect on my thinking in much the way that doing an actual combine might.

Pass or fail

If I can't pass it within the time and criteria parameters, then I'll start over and do another one. If I can complete this and pass the criteria, it will give me a feeling of accomplishment and possibly more confidence in my progress. It also might cause me to need to make some more decisions.



Great approach, great discipline.

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  #166 (permalink)
Attitude is everything.
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, T4
Broker/Data: IQFeed
Favorite Futures: 6E
 
AttitudeTrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 358 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 6,868 given, 857 received

Training Day 62

Mission Plan: In development.
Theater of Operation: Mike Six Echo Mike Three

Pre-Mission Prep
06:05 Going through checklist...Starting pre-mission prep...

Trade #319
09:52 Short (too late) after retest of pullback to AZ. Target is LOD.
10:35 Stopped out. -10 ticks.

Trade #320
10:55 Short on pullback retest of 50% of last major downswing. Target is 03:50 low.
Really feeling unsure of myself. This will be my last trade for today, win or lose.
13:27 Stopped out. -10 ticks.

AAR
  • Objective: Trade the M6E/6E the best I can for now and continue to work on developing my trading plan.
    -
  • Outcome: Followed my general plan, but it was a losing day.
    -
  • Observations: A trader friend was helping me today, so I didn't take any trades while we were talking. However, during a break in our conversation I took the first short trade, but I was in later than I should have been.
    -
    I feel a little stupid taking these losers today after he politely reminded me that there was possible support below my entry. But I know that I have to stick with my plan for now - at least until I can understand more clearly the kinds of things he's able to see.
    -
    Now that I have my simulated combine in mind, I'm a little bummed about "going backwards" today. But I have to remember that losing days are always going to be part of the game, and I can't get frustrated about it.

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  #167 (permalink)
Attitude is everything.
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, T4
Broker/Data: IQFeed
Favorite Futures: 6E
 
AttitudeTrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 358 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 6,868 given, 857 received

Training Day 63

Mission Plan: In development.
Theater of Operation: Mike Six Echo Mike Three

Trade #321
06:57 Long. Ugh! Let myself get suckered into a breakout entry.
I was so hung up on the idea that price was going to move up to prior support at 13019 that I completely forgot about prior support at 13007 and I bought right into it. I even went against my indicator.
07:07 Stopped out. -9 ticks.
The biggest reason was because yesterday price had reached an FE (Fib Extension) of a major down move (apparently ending the move down), but I kept trying to short because the trend was down (in my mind). So today, price had reached an FE of the down move again, so I was trying to learn from the beating I took yesterday when I fought that reversal, but instead, price is going with the longer term trend (down).

Trade #322
07:23 Long on pullback/test of 50% of range that formed after this morning's fall. Price hasn't reached 50%, but I don't want to miss the trade.
07:39 I was too impatient. Price has now pulled down into the AZ area.
07:40 Stopped out. -10 ticks.

Trade #323
08:02 Ok, another horrible trade. I was working on clarifying my plan, but I looked up saw price moving toward a measurement I had on my chart, and I placed an order without considering the plan notes I'm hashing out. Today is definitely going to be a learning day and a day that I'll have to recover from.
08:09 Stopped out. -11 ticks.

AAR
  • Objective: Trade the M6E/6E the best I can for now and continue to work on developing my trading plan.
    -
  • Outcome: My simulated combine took another hit. It was another losing day, but it was more because I was trying to "learn from yesterday" and kind of "do the opposite" than it was because of following specific criteria for my entries.
    -
  • Observations: I'm allowing being wrong to have way too much impact on me. Period.
    -
    After another long chat with the same trader friend as yesterday, and reading/hearing some specific things repeated over and over again, I'm trying to get myself to the place of understanding that it's not so much how many winners I have, but how big my winners are compared to my losers. And so I need to accept those losers as part of the business, but stay in the game so I can take advantage of the winners when they come.
    -
    After just a few losses in a row, I'm second guessing any approach that I happen to be using, making changes, and then experiencing more losses, when the first approach is winning again. I have to get to the place of being ok with being wrong.
    -
    I'm also just going to have to deal with not making very good trades most of the time until I get better.
    -
    The most important thing is that I have to get back to implementing an approach consistently enough to be able to then start improving the method and myself.
    -
    I may need to rethink my simulated combine too, because right now I need to be focusing on becoming a better trader rather than meeting certain criteria.

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  #168 (permalink)
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AttitudeTrader View Post
Trade #321
06:57 Long. Ugh! Let myself get suckered into a breakout entry.
I was so hung up on the idea that price was going to move up to prior support at 13019 that I completely forgot about prior support at 13007 and I bought right into it. I even went against my indicator.
07:07 Stopped out. -9 ticks.
The biggest reason was because yesterday price had reached an FE (Fib Extension) of a major down move (apparently ending the move down), but I kept trying to short because the trend was down (in my mind). So today, price had reached an FE of the down move again, so I was trying to learn from the beating I took yesterday when I fought that reversal, but instead, price is going with the longer term trend (down).

Trade #322
07:23 Long on pullback/test of 50% of range that formed after this morning's fall. Price hasn't reached 50%, but I don't want to miss the trade.
07:39 I was too impatient. Price has now pulled down into the AZ area.
07:40 Stopped out. -10 ticks.

Trade #323
08:02 Ok, another horrible trade. I was working on clarifying my plan, but I looked up saw price moving toward a measurement I had on my chart, and I placed an order without considering the plan notes I'm hashing out. Today is definitely going to be a learning day and a day that I'll have to recover from.
08:09 Stopped out. -11 ticks.

AAR
Observations: I'm allowing being wrong to have way too much impact on me. Period.
-
After another long chat with the same trader friend as yesterday, and reading/hearing some specific things repeated over and over again, I'm trying to get myself to the place of understanding that it's not so much how many winners I have, but how big my winners are compared to my losers. And so I need to accept those losers as part of the business, but stay in the game so I can take advantage of the winners when they come.
-
After just a few losses in a row, I'm second guessing any approach that I happen to be using, making changes, and then experiencing more losses, when the first approach is winning again. I have to get to the place of being ok with being wrong.
-
I'm also just going to have to deal with not making very good trades most of the time until I get better.
-
The most important thing is that I have to get back to implementing an approach consistently enough to be able to then start improving the method and myself.
-
I may need to rethink my simulated combine too, because right now I need to be focusing on becoming a better trader rather than meeting certain criteria.

I applaud your dedication to this process, but you seem distracted. And a bit beat up, which leads to distraction and more beatings. You accomplished Phase 1 brilliantly, reporting to your post each morning and doing your job without considering P/L. I think you need some winners in Phase 2 to build your confidence in this campaign. Has something changed about your method since Phase 1 when you saw some green every now and then? I am rooting for you AT.

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  #169 (permalink)
Attitude is everything.
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, T4
Broker/Data: IQFeed
Favorite Futures: 6E
 
AttitudeTrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 358 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 6,868 given, 857 received

Thanks!


Robert Carrillo View Post
Has something changed about your method since Phase 1 when you saw some green every now and then?

My method now is very different from Phase 1. That method, while not strictly mechanical, required very little in the way of subjective decision-making.

Phase 2 is proving much more difficult because I'm having to deal with my reactions to the outcomes, good and bad, of the decisions I'm making. I believe these "reactions" are at the root of many traders problems because they are what cause me/us to feel as though we're not doing well enough and/or that there is a "better way" than the one we're trying to implement. This leads to changing how we apply our method mid-stream, avoiding trades that are signaled by our method, and/or just jumping to another method altogether.

What I'm discovering, very recently, is that I understand a very important concept logically, but I haven't developed the ability to behave in accordance with it. And that concept is basically: "Losers are going to happen - a lot - so my job is to take my trades, let the losers come, but let my winners also come. It has nothing to do with being "right" or "wrong" on this trade. The end of the month is all that matters."

In other words, start treating this like a job where there's just going to be a lot of "slop," rather than treating each trade like I'm trying to land a rover on Mars or do heart surgery on someone.


Robert Carrillo View Post
I think you need some winners in Phase 2 to build your confidence in this campaign.

Yes, but this is where the importance of consistency in following a set of rules or method comes in. I won't be able to really benefit from winners if I'm not working in a consistent way. Random wins are probably worse than random losses because I won't be able to replicate them consistently. I simply cannot know if my method is valid unless I'm following it, and jumping from one way of trading to another just won't get me anywhere.

So my main focus now will be to work diligently at implementing my basic method consistently. Which, after all, is what this entire exercise is supposed to be about!


Robert Carrillo View Post
I am rooting for you AT.

Thanks @Robert Carrillo !

-AT

"Is it hard? Not if you have the right attitude. It's having the right attitude that's hard." - Robert Pirsig
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  #170 (permalink)
Attitude is everything.
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, T4
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Favorite Futures: 6E
 
AttitudeTrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 358 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 6,868 given, 857 received

Training Day 64


Mission Plan: In development
Theater of Operation: Mike Six Echo Mike Three

Trade #324
18:33 (04/23) Short.
21:40 Price has made a new LL and seems to have downside potential. I need to get to bed, so I'm going to have to leave this overnight.
04:30 (4/24) My computer did an update and rebooted itself (I'll have to fix that), so my charts, DOM, etc., are closed. I'll wait until I get ready for work to start everything back up.
05:55 I was stopped out overnight. -9 ticks (1 tick negative slippage).
Price did eventually reach my target (see M10 chart), but not until after taking my stop out by only 2 ticks. I'll need to get better about my stop placement.

Trade #325
06:08 Short (1 tick negative slippage). Price pulled back to the AZ of the prior major move down (M30 chart). Got short after price pulled back to 50% on M10. Target is FE of the entry swing.
07:15 Target. +8 ticks (3 ticks negative slippage - damn!)
Ha! Now I'm having to deal with a sucky exit fill and a market that is tanking without me. Phew, some sickening feelings here.

Trade #326
08:31 Long. I'm nervous because I'm buying right after a strong down move, but I'm following my plan. I don't know if this is going to work out or not, but it doesn't matter right now. The only thing that matters is that I get back to applying my method consistently.
09:05 Stopped out. -13 ticks.

Trade #327
09:25 Long here for the same reason as the last trade: on the M30 chart, price has reached/tested a long term target area. I'm still looking for this to be at least a short-term turning point.
13:30 I exited prior to my original (longer-term) target, because price had reached a possible (shorter-term) price target and Stochastics had created divergence. Out at market. +23 ticks.

AAR
  • Objective: Trade the M6E/6E the best I can for now and continue to work on developing my trading plan.
    -
    Outcome: The first 3 trades were mediocre, but the last one was decent and made it a profitable (sim) day.
    -
    Observations: I did a better job today of sticking to my plan even though the first few trades were not too hot.
    -
    The biggest difference today though was sticking with my analysis of what I thought was going on rather than getting diverted by the gyrations of the market.

Note: First trade on the Analyzer was a carryover from yesterday's late afternoon testing. It's not included in my stats.

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