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GFIs1 HiLo DAX Signal


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GFIs1 HiLo DAX Signal

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Legendary Market Wizard
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New Year - new GFIs1 approach

*** IMPORTANT NOTE to ALL readers first:
This thread has NO indication about entry or exit nor does it provide ANY signals! (live or not)
but is for testing reasons and discussing results ***

Goal: Finding an indicator that shows the turning point within a chart.

This is not that easy as it looks. Taking a chart and looking back - everything seems obvious.
Finding a signal that indicates where the price is really turning would be a nice help.
With that signal we could take a short at *around* the highest point and wait until the low
signal comes up to sell the short and to take a long instead. And vice versa.

Have tested in the last two years a signal on the Dax which seems to work.

Criteria:
a) Working with price on a VWAP band which starts every trading day new at 0 on full futures trading hours.
b) Looking at occurences when price is crossing the VWAP band boundaries.
c) Checking with the underlying Ichimoku cloud if the signal is valid or not.
d) Validation for a signal needs a move of more than 1% change since last signal.
If a valid signal is created - the trade will be closed / and a new one in the opposite direction will start.
This wil happen on the next bar after the signal (within minutes) - so the absolute maximum might not be reached.

A trade might run several days - so the margin levels of overnight and over the weekend need to be checked with
the broker.

Looking into some charts with next posts.

GFIs1

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Legendary Market Wizard
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Looking at the latest charts here:
First took a Dax short Thursday after 14:30h:



Closed the short Friday 16:20 and taking a long at the same time.



Result 7773 - 7693 = 80 points (1,15% move)

GFIs1

.. a bigger picture in the next post.

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GFIs1 View Post
New Year - new GFIs1 approach

*** IMPORTANT NOTE to ALL readers first:
This thread has NO indication about entry or exit nor does it provide ANY signals! (live or not)
but is for testing reasons and discussing results ***

Goal: Finding an indicator that shows the turning point within a chart.

This is not that easy as it looks. Taking a chart and looking back - everything seems obvious.
Finding a signal that indicates where the price is really turning would be a nice help.
With that signal we could take a short at *around* the highest point and wait until the low
signal comes up to sell the short and to take a long instead. And vice versa.

Have tested in the last two years a signal on the Dax which seems to work.

Criteria:
a) Working with price on a VWAP band which starts every trading day new at 0 on full futures trading hours.
b) Looking at occurences when price is crossing the VWAP band boundaries.
c) Checking with the underlying Ichimoku cloud if the signal is valid or not.
d) Validation for a signal needs a move of more than 1% change since last signal.
If a valid signal is created - the trade will be closed / and a new one in the opposite direction will start.
This wil happen on the next bar after the signal (within minutes) - so the absolute maximum might not be reached.

A trade might run several days - so the margin levels of overnight and over the weekend need to be checked with
the broker.

Looking into some charts with next posts.

GFIs1

Hi GFIs1,

Sounds interesting your new project and I´m curious to your further posts!

Have I understand it correct, it´s a daily VWAP and you enter above/below high/low of the 3 hour chart? And if so, why not entering at 1 hour or 30 minute chart?

Thanks for posting,

Abde

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Looking on a 1h chart we see the ZigZag which indicates the biggest Hi/Lo of a leg.
The signals are not showed. These signals are detailed in the 3 minute chart as shown above.
Same leg down from above chart is on the right of the hourly chart here (+ 1,19% short).

Within 8 trading days this year we can see the following results (maximum is NOT tradeable as discussed in first post):



Short leg from december 28: 1,53%
Long leg 1,21%
Short leg 1,19% (see details in previous post)
Tradeable around 100 +80 + 80 = 260 points
This looks quite positive.

GFIs1

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Abde View Post
Hi GFIs1,

... Have I understand it correct, it´s a daily VWAP and you enter above/below high/low of the 3 hour chart? And if so, why not entering at 1 hour or 30 minute chart?

Abde

It is a VWAP BAND... which starts every day newly.
The signal is generated in a 3 minute chart (post 3) - if a boundary of the band is "killed" the system
shows the signal which must then been verified with the other criteria to see if that IS a turning point.
So entering is possible on the next bar of the 3 min. chart.
Last pic is only to show the legs in a bigger picture of 8 trading days.

GFIs1

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The VWAP band is the essential and main trigger of the signal.
But there are a lot more generated signals that do not show the highest or the lowest point in a chart.
So additional help was needed to filter out these non valid signals and to see only the
turning points to end/begin a new trade. This of course in real time and not lagging by hours.
Here comes the Ichimoku cloud handy in to see if the triggered signal is valid or not.
But the time frame on this use is very essential: as a daily Ichimoku cloud is showing
a very different cloud than on a 30 minute chart - the optimal timeframe had to be found and
tested out.
Optimal timeframe is a three minute chart to see the VWAP band along with the
Ichimoku cloud. Best results came from this combination.

GFIs1

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Questions about the SL settings answered:
As long as the signals are accurate and valid - a stop loss is easily set in a very tight range.
We think of not going higher on the price "Hi" or not to go lower on a price "Lo". With these
extremes that should not been touched again a SL of 10 points as disaster stop in case of
a turning on a wrong signal seems adequate.
This is restraining the loss to a absolute minimum. If the signals are well the stops will never
be in use.

GFIs1

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New signal here - closed long leg @ 7774
and taking a short.

All rules were ok here.

GFIs1

update: trade result + 84 points

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GFIs1 View Post
New signal here - closed long leg @ 7774
and taking a short.

All rules were ok here.

GFIs1

update: trade result + 84 points

Hi GFIs1,

Nice Trade

Do you use only the first VWAP StdDev band boundaries and has the Ichimoku cloud to be red for a short trade or do you just considering KijunSen and/or TenkanSen for entry? I´m attaching todays chart and the cloud seems to be bullish at your short entry. Or did you enter prior to posting at the 3 minute candle from 10:51?

Thanks in advance for your answers

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Hi @Abde

Thanks for your input - my chart looks slightly different ;-)
Marked in the chart the signal bar - and the exit/entry on closing of the following bar.
Underneath cloud is red.. Time of signal is in the blue oval - 10:32 (end).
The only change to my previous rules was to set the SL farther away which protected to
be caught by the short upmove some 10 min. later.
As you can see in my chart - only the cloud of the Ichimoku is relevant - I have erased
Tenkan Sen, Kijun Sen and Chikou Span. This makes it easy to read the main signals.



Hope this clarifies

GFIs1

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GFIs1 View Post
Hi @Abde

Thanks for your input - my chart looks slightly different ;-)
Marked in the chart the signal bar - and the exit/entry on closing of the following bar.
Underneath cloud is red.. Time of signal is in the blue oval - 10:32 (end).
The only change to my previous rules was to set the SL farther away which protected to
be caught by the short upmove some 10 min. later.
As you can see in my chart - only the cloud of the Ichimoku is relevant - I have erased
Tenkan Sen, Kijun Sen and Chikou Span. This makes it easy to read the main signals.



Hope this clarifies

GFIs1

Hi @GFIs1

Thanks for answering my questions

It´s weird that my cloud is green at your entry time. Do you use also the Ichimoku standard settings of 9,26,52?

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... yes the settings 9, 26, 52 are the same...
but I am using a 213 seconds chart which is slightly different to the 3 min chart - try it with this setting

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GFIs1 View Post
... yes the settings 9, 26, 52 are the same...
but I am using a 213 seconds chart which is slightly different to the 3 min chart - try it with this setting

GFIs1

@GFIs1 I´m getting still a green cloud - see attached 213 seconds chart.

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Abde View Post
@GFIs1 I´m getting still a green cloud - see attached 213 seconds chart.

Looks like you have a vice versa coloring on the band - as our bands are very similar.
If you have a look on the thick green cloud in the center of your chart price is wandering from top to down.
Normally a red cloud is crossed by a short - and coming out underneath.
In my chart this same part of the cloud is red.

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GFIs1 View Post
Looks like you have a vice versa coloring on the band - as our bands are very similar.
If you have a look on the thick green cloud in the center of your chart price is wandering from top to down.
Normally a red cloud is crossed by a short - and coming out underneath.
In my chart this same part of the cloud is red.

GFIs1

@GFIs1 Ok, that was the trick. Have reversed the coloring of the clouds and my attached chart looks now identical to yours. Must look for a better Ichimoku version without this programming issue.
Thanks for clarification

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Hi @GFIs1

Did you took that last long trade? I took that long 1 tick above close of the entry bar and set a trailing stop 3 ticks below high of the bull cloud because of the intermarket weaknes. If it goes further I will trail 3 ticks below VWAP and thereafter, 3 ticks below first StdDev band and so on. what do you think?

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I did not take the long.. as my chart has not yet given a secured signal.
As it is often so that the band in the afternoon shows not that accurate
pattern as in the morning - I decided to wait for lower prices.
Differently to your chart - my band did not create a turning point signal:



Will decide tomorrow.
The best one can do is to move stops near the price when price movement
is greater than 1% since entry. This is indeed adventurous but may at
least fix some money in the green ;-) as long we are near the screen
For this situation I haven't yet a game plan.

GFIs1

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Looking forward on my daily chart:
There is (In My View!) a big chance that in the last week of January
price should come back to a level of 7600 -
which means 7596...
Even this is not influencing the next day's movements I am having
that in mind to see the consolidation during this month being executed.

Good Trades!
GFIs1

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Looks like the next signal on the down-leg is coming up right now.

Closed the short from yesterday @ 7774 now @ 7645
result 129 points
New long @ 7645

GFIs1

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Here the details with the vaiid signal:



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Here the details of that turning point in the chart to clarify where to take the trade (end and starting point):



Hope that the principle has been shown.
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GFIs1 View Post
...
Short leg from december 28: 1,53%
Long leg 1,21%
Short leg 1,19% (see details in previous post)
Tradeable around 100 +80 + 80 = 260 points
GFIs1


Quoting 
New signal here - closed long leg @ 7774
and taking a short.
..
update: trade result + 84 points

Year 2013 start result
260 + 84 + 129 = TOTAL of 473 points
This was done in 2 week and represents near 50% of the cumulated year GFIs1 daily Dax result.
Another 2 weeks and it is done for the year

Happy Swing Trading

GFIs1

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Today Wednesday is normally a short day.
So I have put the SL to breakeven as it looks like trending more down.
This helps to protect the capital.
If the SL wil be hit - I will look for a new entry.

GFIs1

update: VERY tight moves.. SL was not hit by 1 point
Might go further up tomorrow :-D

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GFIs1 View Post
Here the details of that turning point in the chart to clarify where to take the trade (end and starting point):



Hope that the principle has been shown.
GFIs1

Hi @GFIs1

Thanks for the input and congratulation to your very well done trades

The situation of the turning point on my attached chart is slightly different to yours and I´m trying to find out why. Do you have any idea? I use the standard settings of 1,2+3 for the StdDevBands and have playing around with them to match your chart but without success. Do you use an proprietary indicator or could this be a code difference between RT and NT indicators?

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Abde View Post
Hi @GFIs1

Thanks for the input and congratulation to your very well done trades ...


Looks like your lower band is almost right! ;-)

GFIs1

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GFIs1 View Post
Today Wednesday is normally a short day.
So I have put the SL to breakeven as it looks like trending more down.
This helps to protect the capital.
If the SL wil be hit - I will look for a new entry.

GFIs1

update: VERY tight moves.. SL was not hit by 1 point
Might go further up tomorrow :-D

The bottom was there but not killed
This was a inside bar.
At least we are still on track!

Good trades
GFIs1

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Abde View Post
Hi @GFIs1

Thanks for the input and congratulation to your very well done trades

The situation of the turning point on my attached chart is slightly different to yours and I´m trying to find out why. Do you have any idea? I use the standard settings of 1,2+3 for the StdDevBands and have playing around with them to match your chart but without success. Do you use an proprietary indicator or could this be a code difference between RT and NT indicators?

My Chart (NinjaTrader) looks different to yours with 213 seconds, i think its a time sync problem.

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Falco11 View Post
My Chart (NinjaTrader) looks different to yours with 213 seconds, i think its a time sync problem.

What do you mean with time sync problem? Could you please post your chart or send it to me for comparison? I use CQG as data provider, which one do you use? Maybe it has something to do with the provider data.

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Abde View Post
What do you mean with time sync problem? Could you please post your chart or send it to me for comparison? I use CQG as data provider, which one do you use? Maybe it has something to do with the provider data.

I use IQ Feed.

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Hi @GFIs1

I took that short one tick below the close of the entry bar@7697 and will hold it overnight. What do you think?

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Falco11 View Post
I use IQ Feed.

Have no idea where the difference come from. Have compared my PC clock with begin end of a bar forming and it´s identical to the second. I heard that data get filtered differently dependent from the respectively provider and maybe that´s the reason. However the highs and lows seems identical.

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Abde View Post
Hi @GFIs1

I took that short one tick below the close of the entry bar@7697 and will hold it overnight. What do you think?

Your idea is not bad...
but one rule has not been looked at: price needs to be >1% than last turning point

So this was not a turning point with the given rules

Good trades
GFIs1

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I know thats not my Thread but i tought i post a chart wich i use for intraday trading.

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Is this a valid sell?

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Closed long leg @ 7652

Result 107 points

GFIs1

..started a short at the same time ;-)

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Is this a valid sell?

YES :car:

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Closed long leg @ 7652

Result 107 points

GFIs1

..started a short at the same time ;-)

very nice

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Closed long leg @ 7652

Result 107 points

GFIs1

..started a short at the same time ;-)

Where do you have your stop? Do you take a fix point amount?

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Where do you have your stop? Do you take a fix point amount?

Normally around 15 points...

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Looking at the chart - signal validated in all points:
a) price move > 1%
b) signal here AND cloud underneath is red



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Looking at the chart - signal validated in all points:
a) price move > 1%
b) signal here AND cloud underneath is red



GFIs1

Interesting, the top at 7760 fits perfect with the Hilbert Sinewave and explosive volume!!

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Falco11 View Post
Interesting, the top at 7760 fits perfect with the Hilbert Sinewave and explosive volume!!

Have never heard of Hilbert Sinewave - but it looks good :-)

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  #44 (permalink)
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Have never heard of Hilbert Sinewave - but it looks good :-)

GFIs1

I boght a lot of junk the last 15 years but my BEST investment was Emini watch.

Emini Trading & How to Day Trade | Emini-Watch.com

Hilbert Sine Wave – This Little Know Indicator Transformed My Trading

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Legendary Market Wizard
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To remember - we are still on the short leg - started @ 7752 - trade is on track!

Now as the system is clear for everyone - there will no longer be updates on every turning point here.
Because this is not intended to be a journal of that very system but more to be a trading possibility
to compare with other systems on the same instrument.
The goal is still to find the very best (low risk ) system over time!
Up to now we have had some very good results here. Not even one negative trade resulted.

Will update from time to time with a chart.

GFIs1

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Here are the results of the last two+ weeks - the first in this year:



no more comments ;-)

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GFIs1 View Post
Here are the results of the last two+ weeks - the first in this year:



no more comments ;-)

GFIs1


Great results - hope it keeps up!

M

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Legendary Market Wizard
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Please test the HiLo settings on other intruments like ES, SP Russel or others
as I do not have the time and timeframe to dig in...

Would be great to see if the system works there too and get some feedback.

Have a great weekend!
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GFIs1 View Post
Please test the HiLo settings on other intruments like ES, SP Russel or others
as I do not have the time and timeframe to dig in...

Would be great to see if the system works there too and get some feedback.

Have a great weekend!
GFIs1

GFIs1,

Took a look at a couple of different instruments this weekend.... can certainly see some opportunity there.

I was curious.... at the beginning of the thread, you said that you had looked at this method over the last 2 years - do you have a sense of the win/loss ratio over that period of time? I was going to check myself, but was having trouble downloading data over the weekend.

Also, did you ever have a situation where you continued to only receive false signals.... for instance, the market hitting a top, and then just continually moving up creating more false signals?

Thanks
M

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Maelstrom View Post
GFIs1,

I was curious.... at the beginning of the thread, you said that you had looked at this method over the last 2 years - do you have a sense of the win/loss ratio over that period of time? I was going to check myself, but was having trouble downloading data over the weekend.

Also, did you ever have a situation where you continued to only receive false signals.... for instance, the market hitting a top, and then just continually moving up creating more false signals?

Thanks
M

First - I tested the system from time to time live - but have never backtested it as I have not programmed the rules.

Second - there are signals that are coming up but the price is still moving in the same direction and not turning...
For these occurences I have a quite tight stop loss setting which prevents from going into the big negative numbers.
In such a case I am waiting til' a new normal signal comes up again to take another trade.

I guess that this setup is working on many different instruments...

GFIs1

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@GFIs1

Quick question... where do you see the dax currently moving based on monthly/weekly charts and the long term perspective in general?

I've had a quite vivid discussion with some guys on skype right now, to me the monthly and weekly are very bearish but it seems like it is in quite the "indecision" mode. Care to comment?

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Hi @Amnesia

Awaiting out of the weekly chart still a short down to 7596 in the next two weeks.
From that level a push over 8000 to a level of 82xx seems to be a good scenario
for the coming 6 months. We do have a good support (Ichimoku cloud) underneath.

GFIs1

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This week the long leg in the DAX did not want to finish
So my setup yesterday showed a clear short signal at 10:04h after a massive
rally after IFO numbers.
But that point was not "THE" turning point. With US making more in the same
direction the price went further up.
Conclusion:
This needs to adapt SL settings for these cases as a desaster stop setting
according to the length of the leg - aka in direct relation to the percentage of
price gain since the last turning point.



GFIs1

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GFIs1 View Post
This week the long leg in the DAX did not want to finish
So my setup yesterday showed a clear short signal at 10:04h after a massive
rally after IFO numbers.
But that point was not "THE" turning point. With US making more in the same
direction the price went further up.
Conclusion:
This needs to adapt SL settings for these cases as a desaster stop setting
according to the length of the leg - aka in direct relation to the percentage of
price gain since the last turning point.



GFIs1

Hi @GFIs1

I took the same short trade as you and got stoped out for al loss of 10 Points. I don´t think that there is a successful way for setting a desaster stop according to the length of the prior leg. Maybe it´s a better idea to trail the stop as soon as possible to break even and to re-enter later at a better price. Requirement for the re-entry should be that the Ichimoku cloud condition remains valid. What do you think?



Abde

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Abde View Post
..

I took the same short trade as you and got stoped out for al loss of 10 Points. I don´t think that there is a successful way for setting a desaster stop according to the length of the prior leg. Maybe it´s a better idea to trail the stop as soon as possible to break even and to re-enter later at a better price. Requirement for the re-entry should be that the Ichimoku cloud condition remains valid. What do you think? ..

Hi Abde

Thanks for the input - I am refining that signal again - for this I need to check some more similar situations.
If the signal is very accurate - then a tight stop will be ok.
As for reentry - I see it best to wait for the NEXT valid setup - so one is avoiding a double loss on the same wrong leg.

GFIs1

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Amnesia View Post
@GFIs1

Quick question... where do you see the dax currently moving based on monthly/weekly charts and the long term perspective in general?

I've had a quite vivid discussion with some guys on skype right now, to me the monthly and weekly are very bearish but it seems like it is in quite the "indecision" mode. Care to comment?

I don't think asking such a question is of any value. The market is what it is. Why should you care what anyone else thinks? No one can predict what will happen. Trade YOUR plan in response to market moves.

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  #57 (permalink)
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Hi all!

I think the idea to fade a top or a bottom in the DAX is a good idea.
Last Friday was a real rare day, large move and all day up in to the close.

I think the VWAP Bands intraday are not enough, a Rolling VWAP shows where the market is.
On the 30 Min Chart you can see the market went outside the 3. band and on Monday morning reached
the 2. band with a reversal. Today we came back to the VWAP at 7815.

The stop is easy to set, above or below the reversal bar or entry bar.

Both Indicators are payed indicators from Fat Tails.

Falco

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Falco11 View Post
I think the VWAP Bands intraday are not enough, a Rolling VWAP shows where the market is.
...
Falco

Hi Falco

You are working with several VWAP bands and you are using a rolling VWAP.
This is fine in many situations.
My attempt is to use only ONE band and this one is developing on every session
from zero. With this I can find most of the time a very good entry / exit signal.
As for a friday where the upleg nears 3% in the morning session before the
US market had opened - I see the problem of jumping in short on that very signal.
Therefore I am refining the method for these rare cases.

GFIs1

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GFIs1 View Post
Hi Falco

You are working with several VWAP bands and you are using a rolling VWAP.
This is fine in many situations.
My attempt is to use only ONE band and this one is developing on every session
from zero. With this I can find most of the time a very good entry / exit signal.
As for a friday where the upleg nears 3% in the morning session before the
US market had opened - I see the problem of jumping in short on that very signal.
Therefore I am refining the method for these rare cases.

GFIs1

Hi GFIs1

I just want to show one idea, shure, everybody must find his own style and way to get happy.
For me it is important to see on a longer timeframe the levels.

Falco

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Legendary Market Wizard
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@Falco11

I am looking in these swings of more than 1% legs to get results within 1 to around 4 days.
You state longer time frames - are they adequate to mine or much longer?
And if longer - what is your leg lenght goal in %?

Good trades
GFIs1

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GFIs1 View Post
@Falco11

I am looking in these swings of more than 1% legs to get results within 1 to around 4 days.
You state longer time frames - are they adequate to mine or much longer?
And if longer - what is your leg lenght goal in %?

Good trades
GFIs1

Hi GFIs1!

Sorry for my late reply!
As i said everybody must find his own style to get happy and i love your idea to find swing highs or lows to take a trade. It is also my way to trade the DAX because to catch the intraday moves is nothing for me and i want to stay longer in the trade. I have no fix goal in %, i look to the chart and try to scale in and out.
I sold the reversal tops on 25.1. and closed on the blue reversal bars, the last at 7720 yesterday. Flat at the moment. I trade via CFD because i can take the risk wicht fits to my account, the Daxfuture is only for bigboys, i am a little boy.

Falco

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Goal area 7250/300 and then rebound above 8000.

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Legendary Market Wizard
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Hi all

As mentioned in previous posts I was thinking of refining the HiLo signal a bit.
The VWAP band starting every session at zero gives quite good signals in the morning.
Later in the day - speaking of after 12:00 - the band might widen too much so the
price will no longer "touch" the band again.
For this case I refine it like this:
a) valid signal in the morning -
b) wait for US opening and close old leg
c) open opposite trade...
and wait

Illustration:



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Legendary Market Wizard
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After discussing taking a short in the last post I am putting an update here with actual price / signals / result:



As we can see - the short is still on track.
There were no valid signals since the short signal to revert...
Result in these three days: 140 points
Outlook - further down-move in the next three days with a leg of around 300 to 400 points.

Nice weekend all
GFIs1

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GFIs1 View Post
After discussing taking a short in the last post I am putting an update here with actual price / signals / result:
Nice weekend all
GFIs1

Top Work and Great Weekend to you too!

Travel Well
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Hello,

Any recent trades?

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bmtrading9 View Post
Hello,

Any recent trades?

Yes - even if there were not many signals - some runners were on the table.
Will update with charts here next days.

GFIs1

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Legendary Market Wizard
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A great long leg here - from +3% in the trade up one has to carefully follow the development...



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Legendary Market Wizard
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Swing trading a special way:
For Elliott Wave traders - the Hi/Lo signal could help to only trade the third (longest) wave here.
The above showed trade was number 3...
So here I want to show the bigger picture of the waves which has not ended yet. Assuming that
the price will shoot over 8K in the 5th leg of that uptrend.
Chart:



GFIs1

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Legendary Market Wizard
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Today we had after a nice up gap in the morning a turning point with a straight downleg in the Dax.

There was one red turning signal in the morning and many long signal on its way down.
But only one was valid in the end.



Looking forward:
Expecting to have a retracement of around >1% on that leg and a new down from wednesday then.

GFIs1

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GFIs1 View Post
Today we had after a nice up gap in the morning a turning point with a straight downleg in the Dax.

There was one red turning signal in the morning and many long signal on its way down.
But only one was valid in the end.



Looking forward:
Expecting to have a retracement of around >1% on that leg and a new down from wednesday then.

GFIs1

Hi @GFIs1,

I can not comprehend why you marked the second and third signals as not valid. They where both more than 1% from the entry of the first valid signal and the cloud was also blue. Could you please point out your thougts why you consider these as not valid and also the reason for the validity of the last signal compared to the prior two? Maybe I missed something.

Thanks for all what you are doing here at futures.io (formerly BMT).

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Hi @Abde

Thanks for compliments and following my thoughts thoroughly - yes you are missing some details.
Look at the chart posted:
1) the very first signal ("not valid") took place when price was in RED kumo...
2) the second ("not valid") signals had the manko that the VWAP was in the blue kumo - so not on the "right side"
(which means nearer / not farther) from price to kumo.
3) the third signal had ALL factors on the right side.

I know - there are are exceptions - but in a very FAST move the above conditions MUST be fulfilled.

Hope this is revealing something ;-)

Good Trades
GFIs1
who is still on the LONG leg - til' 1% is killed - and then again: SHORT (tomorrow)

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GFIs1 View Post
Hi @Abde

Thanks for compliments and following my thoughts thoroughly - yes you are missing some details.
Look at the chart posted:
1) the very first signal ("not valid") took place when price was in RED kumo...
2) the second ("not valid") signals had the manko that the VWAP was in the blue kumo - so not on the "right side"
(which means nearer / not farther) from price to kumo.
3) the third signal had ALL factors on the right side.

I know - there are are exceptions - but in a very FAST move the above conditions MUST be fulfilled.

Hope this is revealing something ;-)

Good Trades
GFIs1
who is still on the LONG leg - til' 1% is killed - and then again: SHORT (tomorrow)

Hi @GFIs1,

So the VWAP must also be out of the kumo cloud for a valid signal - that was the missing piece in my puzzle.

Thanks for clarification.

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Abde View Post
Hi @GFIs1,

So the VWAP must also be out of the kumo cloud for a valid signal - that was the missing piece in my puzzle.

Thanks for clarification.

..only in fast movements or bigger moves during the day..
if there is a non-trending day - after 12:00 german time - the VWAP-setting is no longer important as
in a low movement day the VWAP can not head out of Kumo on the opposite...
Just to be clear!
Yesterday we had 184 points from Hi to Low.. which is a strong moving day

GFIs1

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Bonjour Anas

Pour le Dax je prévois aujourd'hui un rebond (evt. à l'après-midi) sur 7947
le VWAP de hier.
Dax a fait hier un mouvement de 184 points pendant la session normale.
Pour ça une direction n'est pas très lisible.
Mercredi je vois une grande vente - pour ça on peut entrer tôt et finir le
trade tard. Jeudi je prévois plus grande chose.
Demain est mon dernier jour avant les jours fériés.

GFIs1

This was my early morning outlook on the Dax today. (on the french thread)
It is saying that the price should bounce back on the VWAP from yesterday (min. 7947)
in the afternoon before going VERY south tomorrow wednesday.
Thursday will not be important (no GFIs1 trade then) because of low volume and
like always after a strong downmove (..hopefully..) ;-) no trade is necessary.
So looking forward on the next turning point south pretty soon...

GFIs1

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GFIs1 View Post
This was my early morning outlook on the Dax today. (on the french thread)
It is saying that the price should bounce back on the VWAP from yesterday (min. 7947)
in the afternoon before going VERY south tomorrow wednesday.
Thursday will not be important (no GFIs1 trade then) because of low volume and
like always after a strong downmove (..hopefully..) ;-) no trade is necessary.
So looking forward on the next turning point south pretty soon...

GFIs1

Hi,

Thanks for posting charts and helping us..I would like to start applying this method to SPY would you please let me know the indicators you are using and I am mainly trying to enter or exit swing SPY options using this methods. Please help me

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Hi,

Thanks for posting charts and helping us..I would like to start applying this method to SPY would you please let me know the indicators you are using and I am mainly trying to enter or exit swing SPY options using this methods. Please help me

futures.io (formerly BMT)rader

Hi futures.io (formerly BMT)rader
The chart is optimized for the Dax - if it works on other instruments? I have no idea as I haven't tested it yet.
My chart is a 3 minute chart containing a) Ichimoku cloud and b) a VWAP with band of 3.2 bandwidth. This
band has to restart on every session! c) a ZigZag which turns only after a >1% move.
With these 3 indies the chart is done. The signals (and interpretation) you can get out of the explanations
in this thread.

Hope this helps - please report here on futures.io (formerly BMT) if it works on your main instrument - we are looking forward :-)

Good trades
GFIs1

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Hi futures.io (formerly BMT)rader
The chart is optimized for the Dax - if it works on other instruments? I have no idea as I haven't tested it yet.
My chart is a 3 minute chart containing a) Ichimoku cloud and b) a VWAP with band of 3.2 bandwidth. This
band has to restart on every session! c) a ZigZag which turns only after a >1% move.
With these 3 indies the chart is done. The signals (and interpretation) you can get out of the explanations
in this thread.

Hope this helps - please report here on futures.io (formerly BMT) if it works on your main instrument - we are looking forward :-)

Good trades
GFIs1

Thanks for your quick reply, I see you are using NT but I am using TOS let me see If I get all the three indicators lined up. I will keep posting in this thread.

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GFIs1 View Post
Hi futures.io (formerly BMT)rader
The chart is optimized for the Dax - if it works on other instruments? I have no idea as I haven't tested it yet.
My chart is a 3 minute chart containing a) Ichimoku cloud and b) a VWAP with band of 3.2 bandwidth. This
band has to restart on every session! c) a ZigZag which turns only after a >1% move.
With these 3 indies the chart is done. The signals (and interpretation) you can get out of the explanations
in this thread.

Hope this helps - please report here on futures.io (formerly BMT) if it works on your main instrument - we are looking forward :-)

Good trades
GFIs1

Is there any reason for VWAP band width of 3.2? If I use Standard Deviation of 3.2 I am not seeing any signals so I was thinking what might be next alternative? may be 3 or 2.8?

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GFIs1 View Post
Hi futures.io (formerly BMT)rader
The chart is optimized for the Dax - if it works on other instruments? I have no idea as I haven't tested it yet.
My chart is a 3 minute chart containing a) Ichimoku cloud and b) a VWAP with band of 3.2 bandwidth. This
band has to restart on every session! c) a ZigZag which turns only after a >1% move.
With these 3 indies the chart is done. The signals (and interpretation) you can get out of the explanations
in this thread.

Hope this helps - please report here on futures.io (formerly BMT) if it works on your main instrument - we are looking forward :-)

Good trades
GFIs1

Please take a look at following chart of SPY and verify the visual accuracy of indicators and do you think are there enough signals to take trades?


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Hi @bmtrading9

Looks good - congrats!
As the VWAP band can go to 3 instead of 3.1 the signals will not differ a lot.
Remarking that your Kumo colors are negated to mine - but this is only a thing
to be get used to.
Now is the moment to get on the testing route. My normal approach is to
playback some interesting periods to see where one would have taken the
turning point.
Have a look especially for a SL setting which should be wide enough but
as near as possible to prevent a big loss.

Happy testing
GFIs1

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GFIs1 View Post
Hi @bmtrading9

Looks good - congrats!
As the VWAP band can go to 3 instead of 3.1 the signals will not differ a lot.
Remarking that your Kumo colors are negated to mine - but this is only a thing
to be get used to.
Now is the moment to get on the testing route. My normal approach is to
playback some interesting periods to see where one would have taken the
turning point.
Have a look especially for a SL setting which should be wide enough but
as near as possible to prevent a big loss.

Happy testing
GFIs1

@GFIs1 - Thanks for you response. About kumo colors you are telling it should be reversed i.e RED to GREEN and GREEN to RED? Also, in the previous chart I used VWAP band of 2 and 2.8 and signal arrows are for 2.8...If I put VWAP setting of 3 I can see entry and exit point only at the beginning of the session as you know morning session will be very volatile and VWAP bands just started from zero, this behavior is putting me in lot of confusion. My question to you is how you manage this signals at the beginning of the session?

Thanks for all the help.

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Hi @bmtrading9

There is indeed a special treatment for beginnings / openings.
Did not want it to make to complicated first.
I will explain with an example chart tonight.

Good tests!
GFIs1

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GFIs1 View Post
Hi @bmtrading9

There is indeed a special treatment for beginnings / openings.
Did not want it to make to complicated first.
I will explain with an example chart tonight.

Good tests!
GFIs1

@GFIs1 Thanks once again...I reverted colors on cloud, I changed VWAP SD to 3. I got a signal (see the RED arrow), is this a valid signal?

Thanks

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bmtrading9 View Post
@GFIs1 Thanks once again...I reverted colors on cloud, I changed VWAP SD to 3. I got a signal (see the RED arrow), is this a valid signal?

Thanks

..not valid..
Turning down means the VWAP band (with price) must be ABOVE red kumo to give a valid SHORT signal.
Here on this side only LONG signals might be right.
In other words: we are still on the downleg right now.

GFIs1

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..not valid..
Turning down means the VWAP band (with price) must be ABOVE red kumo to give a valid SHORT signal.
Here on this side only LONG signals might be right.
In other words: we are still on the downleg right now.

GFIs1

So in summary

For LONG entry

1. Low of price bar (3 mins) must go below lower VWAP band (SD = 3)
2. Cloud must be GREEN (note that RED and GREEN are reversed than default colors of Ichomoku cloud)
3. Cloud must be on top of middle VWAP line.
4. Cloud must be on top of price.
5. VWAP should NOT be in the GREEN kumo (i.e it should be out of kumo) - so not on the "right side"
(which means nearer / not farther) from price to kumo. - Check post # 71 (Thread # 8)
6. Validation for a signal needs a move of more than 1% change since last signal.

For SHORT entry

1. High of price bar (3 mins) must go above upper VWAP band (SD = 3)
2. Cloud must be RED (note that RED and GREEN are reversed than default colors)
3. Cloud must be below middle VWAP line.
4. Cloud must be on below of price.
4. Validation for a signal needs a move of more than 1% change since last signal.


Stop Loss (SL)

As long as the signals are accurate and valid - a stop loss is easily set in a very tight range.
We think of not going higher on the price "Hi" or not to go lower on a price "Lo". With these
extremes that should not been touched again a SL of 10 points as disaster stop in case of
a turning on a wrong signal seems adequate.
This is restraining the loss to a absolute minimum. If the signals are well the stops will never
be in use.

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Hi @bmtrading9

Very well stated trading plan above.
Now coming back on our starts in the morning hours where signals normally often occur:
The signal is NOT valid when the Kumo is OUTSIDE of the VWAP band. This is normally
the case when a gap happened.
So wait for developing VWAP band and Kumo is getting INTO the band - so the signals
are well.. Of course all OTHER rules must be true as well to get a turning point.

Concerning SL:
I have found that price move around 1% the SL may be very tight. With every 1% added
the SL has to be widened (by the same amount as the first SL).
This prevents running into a SL right after the signal's turning point.
eg: 4% move needs much more space to "make that turn" than after a 1% move ;-)
Just a remark out of my experience on the DAX - I assume it is the same for all instruments!

GFIs1

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As we had some downmove with no valid long signal so far
I assume to stay in that short even over holidays and
expect to see some more points on this trade here.
From a daily chart @ 7650 (on Monday?)

Have a great time
GFIs1

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@GFIs1 Please take a look at the attached chart and let me know if the these two short entries are valid or not?

I modified my timeframe to 4 mins and VWAP band to 2.8 instead 3.0.

Also, signal mean when the HIGH/LOW of the timeframe crosses/touches the VWAP band right?

Signals at the start of the session are valid only if the cloud is *in the VWAP bands* right?

Again regarding Stop Loss what you are telling is after getting the signal 1% SL is too tight? If possible please explain the start of the day signals and SL concept with images.

Appreciate your help.

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bmtrading9 View Post
@GFIs1 Please take a look at the attached chart and let me know if the these two short entries are valid or not?

I modified my timeframe to 4 mins and VWAP band to 2.8 instead 3.0.

Also, signal mean when the HIGH/LOW of the timeframe crosses/touches the VWAP band right?

Signals at the start of the session are valid only if the cloud is *in the VWAP bands* right?

Again regarding Stop Loss what you are telling is after getting the signal 1% SL is too tight? If possible please explain the start of the day signals and SL concept with images.

Appreciate your help.

futures.io (formerly BMT)rader9

Hi @bmtrading9

The chart looks good - the signals too..
In fact I can not see if the signals are really valid - first you are working on a different instrument, second you
changed params a little bit and third I have never tested other instruments than the Dax future.
Looking at the last two days of end of the first quarter 2013 we need to be very distant too - as normally with
low volume some prices are pushed in a desired direction (here up to new highs).
I am looking forward into the first two weeks of april to get a better big picture.
Please go on with testing.

GFIs1

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GFIs1 View Post
Hi @bmtrading9

The chart looks good - the signals too..
In fact I can not see if the signals are really valid - first you are working on a different instrument, second you
changed params a little bit and third I have never tested other instruments than the Dax future.
Looking at the last two days of end of the first quarter 2013 we need to be very distant too - as normally with
low volume some prices are pushed in a desired direction (here up to new highs).
I am looking forward into the first two weeks of april to get a better big picture.
Please go on with testing.

GFIs1

@GFIs1 Thanks for your reply. Generally S&P 500 and DAX follows the same trend but I can see a divergence in last two days....Would you please explain more about SL and morning session entry and exits with some charts.

Regards

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As we had some downmove with no valid long signal so far
I assume to stay in that short even over holidays and
expect to see some more points on this trade here.
From a daily chart @ 7650 (on Monday?)

Have a great time
GFIs1

@GFIs1 Are you still in this short?

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I am.. this will be ok hopefully from tomorrow (seen from the daily chart)

My intraday trade was a long for today to take some profits from the upmove after the long weekend
and closing in 30 minutes.
Over all the leg is still down. I haven't got a signal to go long - so it might be a little stretched for
the moment - but the goal is still short.

Good trades
GFIs1

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New short signal on the 3 min @ 7966 which is valid...
Looking forward to have the downslope now working this time.

GFIs1

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Illustration here..
hoping to see a nive downleg on this signal:



GFIs12

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GFIs1 View Post
Illustration here..
hoping to see a nive downleg on this signal:



GFIs12


@GFIs12 Thanks for sharing I am clearly noticing divergence in DAX and US market i.e SPY. Also, I see short side of this method or any other technical method is less accurate than the long side of it....do you feel the same?

Thanks

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Hi @bmtrading9

As you state - there are and may be critical divergences on US markets versus the European ones.
I am only following the Dax here - so there is no need to see indices moving always synchronous.
But the signals should give some reversal (if settings are right) as long as the market is "overly
moving in one directions".
As for long or short signals - I can not see a difference on the Dax so far..
We may have to follow the system a bit further to decide about accuracy.

Good Trades
GFIs1

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Looks like we are RIGHT on track



GFIs1

PS - so far no valid long signal - means the short will continue

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@GFIs1 Yes, we are are right track....for DAX the bands expands based on start of the day values and based on US markets ...that is interesting to see but for SPY we don't have that kind of expansion in the bands...thanks for sharing your charts and knowledge....

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@GFIs1 I am trying to set up my Ninja Trader would you please let me exact indicators you are using for this method, I just want to compare my TOS set up and NT set up and compare the signals.

Thanks
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