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GFIs1 HiLo DAX Signal


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GFIs1 HiLo DAX Signal

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  #51 (permalink)
Vienna Austria
 
 
Posts: 116 since Mar 2012
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@GFIs1

Quick question... where do you see the dax currently moving based on monthly/weekly charts and the long term perspective in general?

I've had a quite vivid discussion with some guys on skype right now, to me the monthly and weekly are very bearish but it seems like it is in quite the "indecision" mode. Care to comment?

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  #52 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
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Hi @Amnesia

Awaiting out of the weekly chart still a short down to 7596 in the next two weeks.
From that level a push over 8000 to a level of 82xx seems to be a good scenario
for the coming 6 months. We do have a good support (Ichimoku cloud) underneath.

GFIs1

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  #53 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
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This week the long leg in the DAX did not want to finish
So my setup yesterday showed a clear short signal at 10:04h after a massive
rally after IFO numbers.
But that point was not "THE" turning point. With US making more in the same
direction the price went further up.
Conclusion:
This needs to adapt SL settings for these cases as a desaster stop setting
according to the length of the leg - aka in direct relation to the percentage of
price gain since the last turning point.



GFIs1

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  #54 (permalink)
Germany
 
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Trading: ES, DAX
 
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GFIs1 View Post
This week the long leg in the DAX did not want to finish
So my setup yesterday showed a clear short signal at 10:04h after a massive
rally after IFO numbers.
But that point was not "THE" turning point. With US making more in the same
direction the price went further up.
Conclusion:
This needs to adapt SL settings for these cases as a desaster stop setting
according to the length of the leg - aka in direct relation to the percentage of
price gain since the last turning point.



GFIs1

Hi @GFIs1

I took the same short trade as you and got stoped out for al loss of 10 Points. I donīt think that there is a successful way for setting a desaster stop according to the length of the prior leg. Maybe itīs a better idea to trail the stop as soon as possible to break even and to re-enter later at a better price. Requirement for the re-entry should be that the Ichimoku cloud condition remains valid. What do you think?



Abde

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  #55 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Abde View Post
..

I took the same short trade as you and got stoped out for al loss of 10 Points. I donīt think that there is a successful way for setting a desaster stop according to the length of the prior leg. Maybe itīs a better idea to trail the stop as soon as possible to break even and to re-enter later at a better price. Requirement for the re-entry should be that the Ichimoku cloud condition remains valid. What do you think? ..

Hi Abde

Thanks for the input - I am refining that signal again - for this I need to check some more similar situations.
If the signal is very accurate - then a tight stop will be ok.
As for reentry - I see it best to wait for the NEXT valid setup - so one is avoiding a double loss on the same wrong leg.

GFIs1

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  #56 (permalink)
Edmonton, Alberta
 
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Trading: nq
 
Posts: 55 since Jan 2012
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Amnesia View Post
@GFIs1

Quick question... where do you see the dax currently moving based on monthly/weekly charts and the long term perspective in general?

I've had a quite vivid discussion with some guys on skype right now, to me the monthly and weekly are very bearish but it seems like it is in quite the "indecision" mode. Care to comment?

I don't think asking such a question is of any value. The market is what it is. Why should you care what anyone else thinks? No one can predict what will happen. Trade YOUR plan in response to market moves.

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  #57 (permalink)
Vienna,Europe
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: NT
Trading: ES,NG
 
Posts: 45 since Dec 2010
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Hi all!

I think the idea to fade a top or a bottom in the DAX is a good idea.
Last Friday was a real rare day, large move and all day up in to the close.

I think the VWAP Bands intraday are not enough, a Rolling VWAP shows where the market is.
On the 30 Min Chart you can see the market went outside the 3. band and on Monday morning reached
the 2. band with a reversal. Today we came back to the VWAP at 7815.

The stop is easy to set, above or below the reversal bar or entry bar.

Both Indicators are payed indicators from Fat Tails.

Falco

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  #58 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
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Falco11 View Post
I think the VWAP Bands intraday are not enough, a Rolling VWAP shows where the market is.
...
Falco

Hi Falco

You are working with several VWAP bands and you are using a rolling VWAP.
This is fine in many situations.
My attempt is to use only ONE band and this one is developing on every session
from zero. With this I can find most of the time a very good entry / exit signal.
As for a friday where the upleg nears 3% in the morning session before the
US market had opened - I see the problem of jumping in short on that very signal.
Therefore I am refining the method for these rare cases.

GFIs1

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  #59 (permalink)
Vienna,Europe
 
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Posts: 45 since Dec 2010
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GFIs1 View Post
Hi Falco

You are working with several VWAP bands and you are using a rolling VWAP.
This is fine in many situations.
My attempt is to use only ONE band and this one is developing on every session
from zero. With this I can find most of the time a very good entry / exit signal.
As for a friday where the upleg nears 3% in the morning session before the
US market had opened - I see the problem of jumping in short on that very signal.
Therefore I am refining the method for these rare cases.

GFIs1

Hi GFIs1

I just want to show one idea, shure, everybody must find his own style and way to get happy.
For me it is important to see on a longer timeframe the levels.

Falco

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  #60 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Switzerland
 
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@Falco11

I am looking in these swings of more than 1% legs to get results within 1 to around 4 days.
You state longer time frames - are they adequate to mine or much longer?
And if longer - what is your leg lenght goal in %?

Good trades
GFIs1

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