You know already my settings (VWAP 3,1 band, ZigZag > 1%, time 213 seconds, Ichimoku cloud).
Here I am using RT/Investor - so my template you can not use with your app.
@GFIs1 Thanks for the information, so you are using default indicators (VWAP, ZigZag and Ichimoku cloud) come with NT? or do you use any custom indicators?
As I have never used NT I can not give you a hint here. The indicators are in the normal settings (Ichimoku et al)
- VWAP band is restarting at the new session.
Just before noon a new long signal occured @ 7733
so from 7966 to 7733 resulted 233 points.
Expecting that long not develop much - and then
a new short should align.
Happy weekend
GFIs1
What I noticed is this is working very well for DAX not so much for US markets (i.e SPY or DIA etf's)...still testing it let's see...but this seems to be a very nice swing method.
The following user says Thank You to bmtrading9 for this post:
I have not done any tests in a very long time, but when I backtested there was a noticeable difference between US-Indices and the DAX. US-Indices were more amiable to mean-reverting methods while DAX was more suitable to trend-following methods. Maybe this difference still exits?
I guess the main reason for this method worked very well is because of the increase in volatility in DAX when US markets are opened....you can clearly see that volatility in expansion of the VWAP bands.
For example I didn't see any long signal in US markets on Friday but in DAX we got a long signal. Here the logic might be once US markets opened or US jobs report released we saw a sudden drop in US features along with global markets hence the price crossed the VWAP bands and gave a long signal in DAX.
My point of view concerning Dax movements versus US indices:
a) Dax does no longer follow strictly the US movements since several months
b) the friday Dax drop was heavier than normal
thus a retracement is logical and may easily get above 1% before another
expected downmove starts again.
So my scenario is on Monday to see some up and from latest Wednesday
short again.
Hope this helps.
GFIs1
PS: as for US indices the system might work - but eventually needs some
refinement in timing and signal setting. Looking only at some days does not
give enough basis to see if the signals work fine.
As said on Friday - a long signal (valid - after many invalid signals) occured @ 7733.
The leg developed at that point to over minus 3% already. Bad numbers came in some
hour after the signal and price flipped further down to a total leg minus 3.73%. From
there some retracement occured.
In our case the signal - though correct - had some slippage. This means we need to
get a stop loss some room according to the length of the leg.
Here the trade was switched to long before the real turning point was seen.
Illustration here:
In that scenario - as described in the Friday post - the long will not develop much.
I assume to have that next turning point with a valid signal to get a new short leg
which might go to evolve quickly. Note that the red arrows here are NOT time relevant.
GFIs1
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Got a new short signal on SPY...let's see how this plays out in this earnings season. I am very confused and impressed with how adamant SPY has been on the long side...
I got valid long signal on AAPL on FRI but for now I am concentrating only on SPY...
..7630.. and counting ;-)
looks like that short has some weight
and not making a "W" right now which could have been seen as a possibility in this chart.
Will make some remarks on a chart end of the day here.
Looking at the downmove which had no possibility to find a support
to form a "W". Price has found a lower zone in the second part.
This means the support was to weak and further down movement
is highly possible.
As we know from our one Dax journal on Wednesday's normally
a short is the best choice ;-) - we are looking forward to some
more down hopefully with force will happen.
Right now the 7733 is a magnetic line which had to been touched several times.
There are high possibilities to see the scenario described in the last post to happen.
Price has entered into the bullish Kumo (daily) and will be rejected as the strenght
of resistance is too high right now.
@GFIs1 By far this method is the simplest Hi and Low method I found after my research but it is too bad I cannot apply it for US markets...I know you didn't tested this method for US markets but is it possible for you to change some settings and see the feasibility of this method to S&P index? The reason I am coming back to this method is because of it's simplicity and it fits my style of trading i.e swing trading...Thanks for your help.
You are right - my finetuned signal markers for the Dax do NOT work on the ES unfortunately.
I was looking into some bigger swings and found a solution for trending days to get the most
out of a trade without to be in a hurry...
In the following chart there is the cloud / Kumo (red and blue for short/long) as well as the
green VWAP band and the violet VWAP itself. The band is starting on every session new!
Short signal (to get out of a long and take a short immediately):
VWAP band is touching the Kumo (in the chart the left example) AND price is lower than the
VWAP line - then price will go further down.
Long signal (to get out of a short and take a long)
VWAP band (green) is touching the Kumo (here from bottom) AND price is higher than the
VWAP line - then price should cross the bullish Kumo and go higher.
In the example the long signal is still active and a turning point not in the picture.
For nontrending days the signal does not bring much points nor does it bring a big drawdown.
GFIs1
PS: all settings are the same as discussed in previous posts in this thread
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Made a small review of the last four weeks to see how the signals were working:
1st short 1558 to 1553: 4 points
1st long 1553 to 1576: 23 points
2nd short 1576 to 1550: 26 points
2nd long 1550 to 1592: 42 points (actual price without a short signal yet)
Total 95 ES points
I am not sure if you are satisfied with this result in 4 weeks as some moves were
likely to give more points we did not press out to the max.
Anyway this is a method to collect points without high risk.
Good trades
GFIs1
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Today the above seen short signal got after another bullish move a second short signal which
confirmed the first one: that happened today @ 8012 14:41h (CET).
Price came down immediately again - underneath first signal - looking forward to see the short
going on now...
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Today a new short signal on the ES (14:40 CET) was generated @ 1588 (4 points less than mentioned above).
Total result now 91 points in four weeks.
Might start a new down leg right now.
@GFIs1 Thanks once again for your valuable time and effort. This looks promising but this wild swings and divergences in ES is still kind of worrying me. I will try this method with different parameters in VWAP bands and time interval. Do you have a way to back test it in your platform? I don't have a way or I don't know a way in TOS platform to back test this.
The mentioned signals are not coded until now - it is more a visual test if a signal is valid or not.
Therefore a backtest on my platform (even there are possibilities for backtests) is not easily doable.
As I am more testing forward than backward I suggest to test out some of the input in the next
trading days/weeks and months on ES or other instruments.
With sharpening your eye for possible obstacles it might give you even more experience to "see"
the real turning points.
As mentioned I had to go over the rules and refining plus tuning the system here.
With input of @bmtrading9 to test the system for ES I have seen that for breakouts
on the DAX I had to find a additional confirming of a upcoming signal in the short
time frame. So I added a confirmation need rule on the 1h which works the same
as the 3min. rule.
As result - all short signals on the Dax as on the ES in this week were not valid.
(Here the short trades mentioned in the posts before have triggered stop loss markers).
For the bigger picture we are still on the long leg(s) and some higher price levels are
round the corner - for the Dax a new High (22 points above yesterday's high) should
be seen in the next days.
As for my rule set - I will look back into similar price patterns to see if that double
confirmation brings good results. Hope to see a more stable "Turning Point System"
with this extension.
In this thread - originally discussing Dax Signals we are straight mixing up with
other instruments like the ES...
As this might stir up the concentration on only one instrument - the Dax here -
I suggest that I open a parallel thread to discuss signals for the ES with charts.
Of course this is only making sense if some readers are interested to discuss
more on the turning points in the ES.
Please comment in this thread about the need to separate the two - Thanks!
@GFIs1 Thanks for helping us with ES. Yes, parallel thread makes sense. You are right the slippage I noticed with initial setup was sometimes 3 to 4 days, since this is kind of a mean reversion method I expect that but maybe with your new rules it might help. What are the new rules?
Seperation definitely makes most sense from a forum presentation view, also I think the two do show quite different behaviour regardless of underlying asset class correlations.
Thanks as always.
Travel Well
The following user says Thank You to ratfink for this post:
I would say that you should definitely split them. If my interest is anything to go by I like the focused "slim" approach that deals with the FDAX only. It is "trade and market" focused and not really method focused and many of us have our own methods but look at your threads for either confirmation or after the fact input.
p
The following user says Thank You to podski for this post:
After some experience with the mother thread: and thanks
to input of many readers I decided to separate the thread and focus on the
instrument as the rules will be different and some readers would like to
get "sec" info on their traded instrument.
*** …
GFIs1
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Taking only the signals that were validated by the 60min in the chart following the rules described
in above posts - I am updating with a chart the bigger swing in the Dax as from April 15th to today here:
1st short taken on April 15th @ 7760
down to 7500 on April 23rd.
result: 160 points
1st long taken on April 23rd @ 7500
up to actual 8250 which is not the turning point right now - expecting some higher move..
result (part): 725 points
Total 885 points in two trades in a backtest... - so not realized
But the path seems to be good as we can see adequate in the HiLo ES thread.
Chart:
GFIs1
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
The turning point seems to be here soon.
In the 1h chart we have the situation that VWAP is entering the red Kumo.
Red Kumo is weakening and turning into blue Kumo. That means support
is weakening and the next down move can start right now.
As I am writing the price is already testing lower ranges in the day - but
waiting for a expected signal - highly probable in the afternoon will be
the moment to take action.
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Exit @ 8259 (VWAP yesterday) which triggered the closing of the long
and to take a new short here.
Looks like price is diving earlier than expected (prev post)
@AnasParis .... while I certainly would love to catch the 400 or even 500 points on Friday ...(and I hope we all do) .. can you offer any explanation as to why ?
As we have all seen on this thread (and any thread that has tried to call the top on any index over the past months) it is hard to call the top. One day you will be right ... and you might even be right tomorrow or Friday but apart from the red line on your chart .... why ?
Today on the DAX was typical ... an up and down morning with certainly bearish signs and then a steady grind upwards with the US!
As long as money is flowing into the risk markets from gold, from real estate, from bonds, from cash deposits, from under the pillow .... it is going to be hard to nail the top.
I do think that it all looks over bought and that the fundamentals of the European and indeed Global economy are not looking great but lets not forget that any devaluation in the Euro is good for all of the DAX component companies. If the EURO devalues by 10% that is a lot of money off a brand new BMW or an electric train from Siemens.
I would say that we should all be vigilant for any sharp downside .. yes ! However beware of calling tops and bottoms. Lets look for the technicals and see some follow through !
Remember the old saying "The markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"
Best of luck to everyone.
p
p.s. It'll probably drop like a bloody stone now !
The following 2 users say Thank You to podski for this post:
Thanks for your input - very appreciated!
We are invited by our french member @AnasParis to get a very detailed analyses on the Dax.
This will include Elliott counting (main counting plus subwaves).
As this profound analysis needs some time - he will put it here on the thread from starting next week.
Maybe some translation by me for underlying details
So stay tuned - we will follow this one / and comparing to my signals very carefully.
Good trades
GFIs1
The following 3 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Guys ! This sounds great. We all feel that we are at an important "moment" in the market and I am appreciative that you guys call the trades. Its exciting and interesting.
I do think that your big picture input is even more valuable !
bien à vous / mfg
pod
The following 2 users say Thank You to podski for this post:
Looking at the 30 min chart intraday (cash hours) of the DAX
we can find a development of a nice diamond right now.
The end is around 10:00 tomorrow when the form is fulfilled
and the next price drop could start - we will see.
GFIs1
The following 5 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
As some signals on the short AND the longterm view did not show confirmed results
we need to see that
1) a new alltime high is here
2) that high was reached in three attempts (+/-)
3) volumes are going back
4) new bullish elements not in sight
5) long weekend in front
6) bull's moves no longer strong
we have to assume some correction on this level.
Have a great long weekend
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Would like to have a look into the daily Dax to explain WHY a reversal is visible BEFORE
it occurs.
First have a look @ the daily DAX chart - as from today here:
You can see in the picture - prices/movements etc. - THESE are NOT of interest right now.
We are only looking at the SPIRAL as well as the green line (Chikou Span) of the Ichimoku.
This line is showing the closing of the daily prices moved 26 days behind/back to the actual.
1) We can see on the lower side in the yellow circle that price was going down TO the circle
and was rejected to higher.
2) On the upper yellow circle we see the price piercing THROUGH the spiral - making like a
new triangle which is looking OUT of the circle - JUST to get back with force INTO the spiral.
This price movement (far away from accepted price levels) is called: Dead cat bouncing
Normally with a Dead cat bouncing scheme - the price makes a bigger reversal...
To list some more futures.io (formerly BMT) posts on that special theme I might open a special thread.
Profit from the cat!!
GFIs1
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Still on the downmove we see the price is now catched in a chop chop zone.
If price can push through the red Kumo some faster downmove is highly probable.
So watching carefully the coming weeks when the daily candle bodies get out
of the chop chop rectangle - could be lower as described or higher to not pass
the Kumo.
Chart:
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Now we could see today that price went INTO Kumo today - so some movements within
are highly possible - it looks like the price is getting out of Kumo further south as shown
in last post. 8K is really killed now.
Staying tuned for rollover tomorrow then: Scenario is still valid!
GFIs1
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
We have now seen in the daily chart that Dax has passed Kumo. From the last high
to the mid Kumo and from there the next low might be seen:
So the area 7300/7400 should be in reasonable distance.
If we take the time from high to mid Kumo we have roughly 1 month.
Looking forward to the next down point - we will be there in July.
Very symmetric
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
we started with the last short signal @ 8320
and this weeks closing @ 7840
we get a intermediate result of 380 points
so far on this trade (not closed)
Time we took the short was May 14th see post 140
Coming back to my last chart (post 158) I would like to discuss the main points of where
price will head in the next few weeks.
First the updated daily Dax chart:
Longer term - focusing on the 3 Ichimoku lines right now - look @ ends in the black circles
1) Red TenkanSen: has crossed now the red Kumo and IS underneath Kumo
2) Blue KijunSen: has entered finally in the middle of red Kumo and turned shortly horizontal (SL guidance)
3) Green ChikouSpan: has passed now the "ancient TenkanSen and KijunSen and rests now underneath that pair.
Conclusions: as for the Dax - the price will be short in the next few weeks. Normally from
the last high to the middle of the Kumo is the distance that price has to make from the middle
of the Kumo south to make the next low. So we are prepared to see some more down days (even hefty ones).
Short term - the last day shown in the chart is the last day of half year - which normally represents a level
of high acceptance and normally is a important point for companies for their half year numbers.
We can see in the chart that the daily bar is a short one (!) and closing was lower than previous day's VWAP.
That is another sign for lower prices coming.
GFIs1
Special remark @AnasParis: the price entered red Kumo slightly - but resistance above is high and even getting higher
The following 4 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Yesterday was one of these hefty down days - with more than 226 Dax points in the daily range this was
a bold day.
As we may follow this trend we could see the discussed lower levels earlier than expected.
The blue line KijunSen in the red Kumo lowered to 8035. This is the main SL indicator for longer term trades.
Price went up to 8038 high of the day before cash hours and kissed Kijun once to dive in a fast pace on that
long down move of 226 points in one session.
The downmovement is expected to follow that trend - with one more rebounding - before coming to discussed
lower levels.
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
I am using cumulating profiles for the last 8 days - there I can see the POC etc.
Actual POC on Dax is @ 7992 which was hit this morning just to take
the opposite route
Anyway - waiting for Friday
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
A little update on the Dax here to see the bigger picture.
Today I am pointing out a special trendline from the last low in April to today.
It is visible as a blue line passing several prices.
The most interesting develpment is to be seen within the yellow circles.
Price and ChikouSpan (green lagging line) were always touching the trendline from ABOVE.
Chikou price was rejected higher then...
Til' the price went INTO the KUMO. From there the trend line has to be seen
as a resistance line.
Just TODAY's price touched the same line from underneath - and price was sent lower!
The second and very important thing is seen in the blue circle around TenkanSen and KijunSen
(red and blue lines): They still did not cross within the Kumo - so some really lower prices
are needed right now to let this not happen. Otherwise that would read as a highly bullish sign
as long as these lines cross within the Kumo or above.
Some interesting days are ahead - and with this low volume since 10 days - everything may happen.
Stay alerted though with any trade.
GFIs1
The following 5 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Looking back to the last post which was made nearly 3 months back - we
can see that the bullish move had taken place.
With the FED's announcement and the hype over during low volume summer period we
are coming to an end of that upmove scenario.
To get some insight - using Ichimoku 1h for september - we can clearly see a major
change of price behaviour right at this point.
This means:
1) getting out of the longs...
2) going short for the next several weeks
RIGHT HERE and NOW!
Look at the chart - it speaks for itself (with my annotations of course):
The flesh lines are not timely - so the downmove may go in steps over next few weeks.
Any comment welcome.
GFIs1
The following 2 users say Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Agree with your analysis in general GFIs1. But my gut feeling is telling me that we will not leave the 8800 + figure untouched before an major decline kicks in.
The following user says Thank You to Abde for this post:
I see that possibility too:
If we take a look into the chart mentioned - some upmove over the red Kumo is quite possible!
The flesh down does not mean "right now"... but the direction to cross Kumo now or in a second
move is foreseen (time gap here to be considered).
Anyway - a top is near and for a swinging trade the moment to cash in and to stay alert for
a longer downmove is given by this actual scenario.
Thanks for your reflections!
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
Looking at the bullish moves in the indices we have to see that the october was
a very bullish month this year.
Price in the daily is still hovering above Kumo and signals are strong to see some
higher prices before year ends.
There is one scenario that comes into mind to see price dropping and stopping
above daily Kumo to close the island gap that still is open. That could mean for
the next 2-3 weeks some retracement without killing the overall upside move:
GFIs1
The following user says Thank You to GFIs1 for this post:
I do use it - with smaller instruments than the future itself.
Had just not taken time to hold this thread alive.
Will do it again as I get some new charting software.
@GFIs1 Nice! thank you, I have an IB account so trading it will not be an issue and data feed is free for this CFD at IB. What charting software you are looking at for this method?
Edit: My bad I cannot trade as per IB CFD documentation
"Legal residents of the US, Canada, Hong Kong and Japan are prohibited from trading both the IB-issued and exchange listed CFDs and residents of Australia the IB-issued CFDs."
)
