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An Attempt At Consistency


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An Attempt At Consistency

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  #1 (permalink)
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Posts: 358 since Oct 2009
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Being members of the hominidae family and in possession of not only opposable thumbs but a decidedly large and powerful brain, it would seem reasonable to assume that interacting successfully with something as simple as price action would be easy for us. However, my many years of “experience” with it have proven that assumption false.

On this forum I've read many posts relating others experiences in frustration, with some finally coming to the realization that their search for the perfect combination of market, time frame, indicator and method is in vain. Apparently such a thing doesn't exist.

The number and frequency of changes I make in the above parameters is both alarming and embarrassing (to me anyway). Granted, one needs to explore and discover what “works” for him/her, but I think that the necessary knowledge is actually acquired fairly quickly – in other words, it really doesn't take that long to “know what you need to know” in terms of price action or reading an indicator.

The troubles lie in the consistent use of the chosen parameters when the real-world experiences of losses, missed opportunities, boredom, need for income, etc., are encountered (the psychological stuff).

I understand that it is critical to be consistent with a chosen method in order to 1) learn its nuances and build confidence in it, and 2) allow it to generate its (hopefully positive) results over time. So, I'd like to try to use the futures.io (formerly BMT) Trading Journals forum to its best effect by recording my trading actions (for as long as bearable) while trying to learn from them.

I won't be making any grandiose resolutions to do exactly this thing or that thing. But it is my intent to use the market, time frames, indicators and overall method that I'm starting with here without changing them any time soon. This is also about paying consistent attention to what I'm doing (by recording it here) and learning where I'm falling down or doing well. I think if we keep careful records of what we do, in many areas of life, we can become more aware of patterns (good and bad) that may have previously gone unnoticed.

I'm also not going to be trying to take every trade that an indicator signals just because it has signaled. That approach (trying to be 100% mechanical) has lead to quite a bit of frustration for me. On the contrary, I will use the indicators that I've chosen (more on that later) to guide my actions, but not to dictate them.

Additionally, the consistency I'm attempting here is not in regard to posting every day. As many of you already know I have other work that I need to do to pay the bills, so I'll post what I can, when I can.

All times mentioned here and on the charts are US Central time (Chicago/Dallas).

This attempt may end abruptly and ugly (it may be too painful for me!), but I'm willing to take that chance right now. This attempt may also turn out to be one of the better things I've done lately with regard to my trading. I hope it helps me and maybe even someone else.

As always, many thanks to @Big Mike and all those who contribute here.



"Is it hard? Not if you have the right attitude. It's having the right attitude that's hard." - Robert Pirsig
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  #3 (permalink)
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Posts: 358 since Oct 2009
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I have no special reason for trading the ES other than the fact that I've been watching it for a while now and I'm fairly used to its boxy nature. It also seems to conform fairly well with the Fibonacci levels I use. The fact that it is extremely liquid doesn't hurt either.

Same goes for my time frames. The 3000-tick chart (ETH) seems to be large enough to give me an idea of trend while being small enough to give me most of the important intraday swings. I guess the 5-minute chart (RTH) is ubiquitous for a reason. It, like the 3000-tick, gives a somewhat larger picture while still allowing me to see some of the smaller swings. I'll be using it for additional Fib measurements, gaps, etc. There are also some little quirks with the 5-min that I've noticed, like price seems to jump a little more or make a move sometimes as the 5-min bar is getting ready to finish.

There is really nothing special about my choice of indicators other than the fact that I have some experience with them, and they're the ones I was looking at when I decided that I needed to stop changing things. You'll see a 50-EMA on both time frames, and a 20-CCI (I'm using Woodies CCI for the trend bars) only on my 3000-tick chart (I found that having it on both charts caused mixed signals and thus uncertainty, etc.).

My other primary tools are Fibonacci measurements and previous support, resistance, closes, gaps, etc., which you'll see on the charts.

In my mind these certainly don't constitute the best or most powerful tools/indicators to use, but then again I don't know what are, so it's really irrelevant. I have to use the tools I have available to me and use them consistently.

The only remaining question then is, “How long will I be able to keep it this way?”

"Is it hard? Not if you have the right attitude. It's having the right attitude that's hard." - Robert Pirsig
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  #4 (permalink)
Dallas, TX, USA
 
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A: Short after test of Monday's naked close and break of CCI TL on 3000-tick. This was obviously against the trend (50-EMA and 20-CCI). Out at 4 ticks. Accidentally short 4 cars (sim) but I'm only counting it (in my trade log) as a 1 lot winner.

B: The better trade was the pullback to 50% on 3000-tick with the trend.

C: Short after test of Friday's naked close (see 5-min chart) and FE of the prior swing on the 3000-tick chart. Again, against the trend.

D: I passed on the potential long opp at the IB 50% level (on 5-min) even though the trend was up. I didn't like the fact that price had created almost a double top at the FE (138.2%) of the prior swing (measured on the 3000-tick chart from 5:26 low to 8:32 high). Although using my targets and stops would have been profitable, it would have been very close. The short-term up-trend appears to be fading.

E: Initially I had an order in to short at 1456.00 (50% of the down-swing), but price missed it by 1 tick and moved down to test LOD for a second time creating a near double bottom (on 5-min). Additionally, price had reached a measured move of the prior consolidation (200% - purple Fib levels on 3000-tick), and CCI had pushed below -200 and created a Vegas-like and/or Ghost-like pattern (I'll need to brush up on the patterns - I'm sure @ThatManFromTexas will know if I'm looking at them correctly) signaling a possible change in trend to the upside.

F: Ultimately the CCI downtrend prevailed and price reached down to hit yesterday's naked (gap) close (see 5-min chart).

G: Price didn't seem committed to dropping and since it had reached an important target (yesterday's naked close) I took profits at the swing low from around 11:50 (see 5-min chart). I need to use caution after price reaches an important level like this (the naked close).

H: I didn't see it until after the fact, but price turned around at 50% of the macro upswing (see bold Fib lines on both charts). I got lucky...





"Is it hard? Not if you have the right attitude. It's having the right attitude that's hard." - Robert Pirsig
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  #5 (permalink)
Dallas, TX, USA
 
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Posts: 358 since Oct 2009
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As I start this thread I'd like to beiefly thank a few futures.io (formerly BMT) members for there inspiration and help.

Journals by both @PandaWarrior and @bobarian have been inspirational to me in their quests for consistency (The PandaWarrior Chronicles and bobs qwest to attain consistency) and I'd like to thank them for sharing and continuing to add to their journals.

I'd also like to thank @Deucalion for his help, guidance and support over the years.

Thanks guys.

"Is it hard? Not if you have the right attitude. It's having the right attitude that's hard." - Robert Pirsig
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  #6 (permalink)
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A: At 7:50 (pre-market) price reached FE of the macro Fibs I measured yesterday – piercing it by 1 tick before falling. Created a Ghost on CCI.

B: Passed on pullback to 50% because of Ghost on CCI, pre-market test of macro FE and quick retest after the open.

C: Compulsive short on breakdown against the trend. Low probability trade. Price wasn't acting like it wanted to go down so out at b/e.

D: Short at 50% of previous swing and 01/04 high (OrangeRed Fib lines). CCI downtrend. EMA uptrend though. Target reached. Done for the day.

E: It appears to be important not to discount the 50-EMA trend. On D above, even though CCI trend had turned down, price remained in turmoil above the up-trending 50-EMA, then broke through it powerfully.

F: Price reached, hesitated then exceed FE of the Fib measurement I used to get short at D. It appears to be trying to reach the naked close from yesterday.

G: Price didn't quite get back to 50% where I would have wanted to short if I was still trading.

H: Price reached yesterday's naked close which was also 50% of yesterday's range as well as a measured move of the swing I used to get short at D. Wouldn't attempt any more shorts for the time being.

J: Resistance at 50% (Mid) of today's range, but still wouldn't be looking for shorts yet due to TLB on price chart and CCI, up-trending EMA's (on the two charts) and up-trending CCI.

Had to leave around 1:00pm to do other work.





"Is it hard? Not if you have the right attitude. It's having the right attitude that's hard." - Robert Pirsig
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  #7 (permalink)
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A: O/N price came within 2 ticks of FE (olive Fibs on 3000-tick chart) of yesterday's RTH range.

B: On the open price is range-bound and CCI is choppy. In pre-market price had pulled back to Mid of the previous downswing with CCI still in downtrend for a good entry (pink Fib lines).

C: Hesitation at 50% of macro swing (bold Fibs on 3000-tick), but won't mess with it because of recent TLB (down) on 3000-tick and CCI downtrend.

D: Long 1462.50 after 2 CCI TLB's, possible 5-min RTH support line, FE of previous swing on 3000-tick (pink Fib lines). Only going for 4 ticks because this is against the trend. I moved my stop up aggressively and was stopped out with a 1-tick loss.

E: Trade would have been profitable after 1 tick of heat.

G: Short 1464.50 on pullback to IB Mid (light blue Fibs) and possible CCI ZLR. Moved stop aggressively and was out with a 1-tick loss.

H: Trade would have been profitable after 5 ticks of heat.

J: Short on breakdown attempt – 5-min TLB and CCI TLB. Stopped out with a 3-tick loss.

K: Short on another breakdown/TLB attempt. Stopped out with a 6-tick loss.

L: Long on another breakout/TLB attempt. These breakouts are low probability and poor R:R so I know it's usually best to avoid them. I was trying too hard to get a profit today.

I went ahead and took the breakdowns/breakouts while I'm learning to work with these particular charts and indicators, but I'll be keeping careful records of the results I get with them. It's a little bit like I need to get the experience of paying the price for taking them and get them out of my system. This goes hand in hand with gaining experience and confidence in the CCI (both breakdown shorts were against the CCI trend which was still up).

!! 5 losers in a row now. The urge to change my time frame keeps tugging at me.

M: Long on pullback this time to TL and 50% of previous swing.

!! Started out this trade with my target well beyond my usual in order to try to recoup my losses. THE MARKET DOESN'T KNOW OR CARE HOW MUCH I NEED TO GET BACK. STICK WITH THE PLAN! Moved target back to normal. Out with 6-tick gain.

Trying to go for bigger profits just because I'm behind for the day is not part of my trade-by-trade plan. I don't modify my approach because I “need” more profit on a particular trade. Especially after a string of losing trades, it's good to get a full winner on the books and then go from there.

If I will enter sensibly, then I won't put myself in the position of needing to try for ridiculous or improbable targets in the first place.

I never changed my charts, indicators or anything else today, which is a win for me.





"Is it hard? Not if you have the right attitude. It's having the right attitude that's hard." - Robert Pirsig
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  #8 (permalink)
Calgary, Canada
 
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Posts: 430 since Aug 2009

Don't beat yourself about it. The range wasn't that hot, and the only opportunities were early, the rest of the day was scalping action only for ticks here and there. This is the RTH short term chart (I have started ignoring ETH sessions)

This is a look from another set of eyes - 3 opps: Short at "A", Long at "B", Short at "C".

A: Previous range broke from yesterday broke and price came upto A, where ask volume came in, that was the best trade of the day. I missed this (was trading Crude at the time)

B: On footprint one could see bid volume come in at 63, but even if you missed that, B was re-test and valid long. I took this for 1.5points

C: This is my bread and butter trade, and abc corrective that tests the range breakdown and resumes the impulsive, this was a larger size short for another 1.5points. Both B & C took their time but such is trading in January.

Chart porn follows -




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  #9 (permalink)
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, T4
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Posts: 358 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 6,868 given, 867 received

@Deucalion You're awesome! Thank you for the view from another set of eyes. And I hope you will continue to post here when you have something you think could be helpful.

Deucalion View Post
...(I have started ignoring ETH sessions)

I'm using the 5-min for just this purpose - to view only the RTH session. As I mentioned in the My Market, Indicators and Method post, my choice of the 5-min is nearly arbitrary, and after I finish with my other work today, I'm going to see whether your 4181-vol might be a better RTH time frame option for me.

Thanks again.

[Note: Lest it appear that I am already veering off my intended path of using consistent time frames and indicators, replacing the 5-min with a volume chart that has a very similar overall length, but with a potentially better view of price movement, doesn't constitute or reflect a change in my approach/method.]

"Is it hard? Not if you have the right attitude. It's having the right attitude that's hard." - Robert Pirsig
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  #10 (permalink)
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, T4
Broker: IQFeed
Trading: 6E
 
AttitudeTrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 358 since Oct 2009
Thanks: 6,868 given, 867 received


For the 3 days since starting this thread I didn't make any changes nor did I even put any indicators on the charts “just to see” and then take them off.

My results weren't very good, but that was because I didn't trade very well. As I become accustomed to the general time frames and indicators I've chosen to use I'll get better - because I'll be focusing on my trading skills and learning about price action and the nuances of the indicators I have rather than constantly looking for new indicators to catch every move or keep me from taking losing trades.


"Is it hard? Not if you have the right attitude. It's having the right attitude that's hard." - Robert Pirsig
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