Starting All Over - Finding My Trading Niche - futures io
futures io futures trading



Starting All Over - Finding My Trading Niche


Discussion in Trading Journals

Updated
      Top Posters
    1. looks_one grahamg with 69 posts (71 thanks)
    2. looks_two josh with 4 posts (3 thanks)
    3. looks_3 Big Mike with 4 posts (0 thanks)
    4. looks_4 puravida with 3 posts (6 thanks)
      Best Posters
    1. looks_one puravida with 2 thanks per post
    2. looks_two plethora with 1.5 thanks per post
    3. looks_3 grahamg with 1 thanks per post
    4. looks_4 josh with 0.8 thanks per post
    1. trending_up 16,538 views
    2. thumb_up 100 thanks given
    3. group 29 followers
    1. forum 110 posts
    2. attach_file 3 attachments




Welcome to futures io: the largest futures trading community on the planet, with well over 125,000 members
  • Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
  • Quality education from leading professional traders
  • We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
  • We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

View Poll Results: What is the next step?
Stick with purely scalping Bund for another month 5 35.71%
Start position day trading learning market profiling as I go along 6 42.86%
Learn market profile by day - scalp by night 3 21.43%
Voters: 14. You may not vote on this poll

 
Search this Thread
 

Starting All Over - Finding My Trading Niche

(login for full post details)
  #1 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

My Trading Background:

I live on the Gold Coast, Australia and work occasionally as an Engineer outside of my full time trading efforts. I started trading in November 2009 after reading a friends Gann based trading course. I turned my small 2k into 5k on a Wheat move, quit my 150k engineering job to trade fulltime , and 6 months later found myself (and my now fiance) living out of our Hyundai hatchback while driving between house-sits. I continued trading and researching fulltime while in search for the Holy Gann Grail and took on contract work for the bread and butter. The more effort and money I have put into pursuing trading the more my ideal lifestyle has approached, but from the engineering work I try so very hard to leave behind (another story).

Suddenly in November 2012 after a nearly break even month of swing trading and too much commissions, it occurred to me that the dozens of books on trading that have told me there isn't a holy grail.. are right. The years of effort finding the correct planetary alignment and square of nine combination to tell me which swing to load up on.. suddenly seemed a bit silly in the context of actually making consistent money. So I researched how the prop shops go about business, and December I dove into order flow reading and price action skills in a new bid to master the markets. But the book Enhancing Trader Performance by Steenbarger has struck a chord, and I plan on following his advice on finding my trading Niche.

Being a recent member to futures.io (formerly BMT), it seems a good place to keep myself true to the goal of finding my trading niche by writing a journal, and hopefully getting some good advice along the way.

My current plan is to trade a variety of methodologies, one round at a time, each for 6 weeks total. Methods being:

Round 1 - Scalping the Eurobobl - No BS Style
Pros - I have spent roughly 3 weeks of studying the DOM in Jigsaw and studying everything from the No BS guy's (John Grady) site. Order flow reading seems a necessary skill to day trade. Gives me time during the day (in Australia) to practice, review, and work on Round 3 systems
Cons - Seems a bit dull watching the ladder for that much time. 6 weeks might not be long enough to get the feel for it.
Round 2 - Day trading ASX Stocks in Play - SMB Capital Style
Pros - Can draw off scalping experience for entries and filtering trades. I am confident in finding price levels. It seems action filled. I enjoy the competitiveness and range of skills demonstrated and talked about in One Good Trade for their trading style
Cons - Nasty commission rates. It seems a lot of work to just trade (the SMB fundamentals). Time consuming. It seems the most disadvantaged method for retail trading.
Round 3 - Systems Trading Futures Intraday
Pros - Am a computer engineer with expert coding skills. Can fully automate trading. Enjoy writing code to solve problems I chose. Can get creative for once in my programming. Can draw on Round 1 and 2 experience to create systems.
Cons - It takes a lot of time required to test ideas. I am probably up against many systems development teams probably making smarter systems.
It would probably make more sense to the reader that I should just dive into Round 3 - Systems Development, and this is an urge I am trying to come to terms with. Fact is I would love to have an automated system to trading away while I am out surfing or climbing so it would suit my lifestyle and I know I can get into the 'The Zone' writing software and it is fulfilling. But my fiance made the good point that perhaps I would like just as much to scalp for 2 hours a day if it made enough consistent money to support my lifestyle. Dr Steenbarger made a good point to find your strengths, and I think I can't intellectualize what they would be without the experience. So here is too experience.

I will trade with small real positions to keep it real. Please let me know your thoughts. Thanks and hear is to finally getting traded sorted in 2013!

Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 12 users say Thank You to grahamg for this post:

Journal Challenge February 2021 results:
Competing for $1500 in prizes from Topstep
looks_oneSBtrader82 's Trading Journalby SBtrader82
(172 thanks from 31 posts)
looks_twoJust BEING a Trader: Letting Go!!by iqgod
(120 thanks from 33 posts)
looks_3Wisdom is Emptinessby Mtype
(68 thanks from 25 posts)
looks_4Deetee’s DAX Trading Journal (time based)by Deetee
(31 thanks from 17 posts)
looks_5Journal for peanuts1956by peanuts1956
(23 thanks from 13 posts)
 
 
(login for full post details)
  #3 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received


I traded 5PM to 8PM which is equivalent to Eurex 8AM OPEN to 11AM

Strategy is basically to piggy back off size entering the market at steps in the profile and at the high / low for the day. I configured hotkeys to enter orders on the NT SuperDOM while watching Jigsaw. Awaiting funds in AMP Futures to clear to enable CQG data feed so trading SIM account only. Interactive Brokers data feed had to suffice in the mean time.

I mustered up a surprising amount of focus for SIM trading. Previous few days were down days on light volume. Bobl opened up near Friday high then sold off for first fifteen minutes. I could not read a thing and market seemed quiet compared in my limited experience. No important numbers in Forexfactory but listened to talking-forex anyway. I started trading among the chop and got cut up. I became highly frustrated after first trade and 4 tick loss - didn't need a negative start. Market appeared to have bottomed, but didn't seem all that pumping while I tried a few failed trades escalating into a 6 tick loss. At this point I was experiencing a lot of emotion, with lots of thoughts on 'scalping isn't for me... why don't I just start writing code which I am good at...'. I told myself to suck it up and get back to B/E though, which snapped me out of an unusually negative mindframe.

About 6PM larger prints into the bobl at new high though bund and schatz were selling off slightly. Only one print ticked into 64 and sat there after over a thousand at 63. I watched this for what seemed like ages and hit the bid with one. Prices quickly sold off and I covered for a 4 tick profit at 59, right above a big profile step. Couldn't believe how good that felt, as it was like I had won something. I scratched a trade after the same step did not support a quick break back to highs though should have held a bit longer. I managed a one tick profit before the market got seriously range bound and even more quiet. I called it a day.


The last three trades were not at a loss which felt really good despite being down 6 ticks total for the day. I only aim to watch the market for the morning Europe session as this should give me ample opportunity to find if I enjoy it. Being a normally unemotional person - the swings in mood felt invigorating and I enjoyed this trading session. I have read many books on why everything should be done to REMOVE emotion from the table, but this is what made me want to fight back and be competitive.. ride my highs, overcome my lows.

Enjoyment 7/10
Trading 5/10

Trades summarized in below tick chart.


Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to grahamg for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #4 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Tuesday was a tough day to read for me. I was continually drawn to watching the Bund while committed to trading the Bobl. I felt I was reading the Bobl quite well considering the choppy conditions and entered a trades scratching them mainly. Biggest mistake was switching to the Bund finally having missed out on an obvious trade. The obvious trade in the Bund was a large iceberg that occurred at its lows stopping the market in its tracks. In a few seconds a thousand or more traded at the lowest 2 ticks and then traded smoothly up 6 ticks or so. Watching this go on I thought I could fade in the Boble the iceberg occurring in the Bund which didn't work out well.

The biggest lesson of the day was holding onto a loss. For the last 3 years I have been a swing trader and always have stops in the market below swings or daily bars, so never experienced the feeling of holding onto a losing trade. Now I have and that won't happen again. I lost 8 ticks (now in the faster moving Bund). Then made an immediate of reversing my position which was a school boy error. I wanted to reverse my LOSS, not my position. I was losing on a +1 position. I reversed my position at the 8 tick loss in frustration so was now short at the bottom of the move and copped the bounce on the wrong side before hitting my çlose all hotkey to get me out. All in the space of a few minutes.

I managed to catch a 4 tick winner now trading the quicker Bund but it was a fluke trade. After all the textbook errors were experienced the markets shows conviction for remaining choppy and I called it a day.

Lessons I learnt:
1. Don't trade one market based purely off another markets price action with no confirming indications in said market.
2. Don't get caught up in only price levels / steps in profile / speed of market. The goal is to find size and trade in line with it.
3. Cut losses short. Don't hold on in hope.. dah

Enjoyment: 5/10
Trading: 5/10 (started out reading Boble well)

Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to grahamg for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #5 (permalink)
Bridgwater, UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker: MB Trading
Trading: Forex
 
mokodo's Avatar
 
Posts: 384 since Jun 2011
Thanks: 525 given, 346 received

Wishing you a fulfilling and profitable journey

know thyself
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to mokodo for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #6 (permalink)
Munich
 
 
Posts: 29 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 3 given, 33 received

Just something to challenge your mind, maybe it will help you on your journey as it helped me.

What are your goals with each strategy?
How will you capitalize to reach them?
Have you determined a risk-reward-ratio?
What are your worst case scenarios?
How do you determine if your systems work / don't work? (Metrics?)
Do you have clearly written down every rule of your strategy?
How does it feel to trade the systems?
...

Just writing down answers to these and similar question can be a great help in my opinion.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to puravida for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #7 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received


puravida View Post
Just something to challenge your mind, maybe it will help you on your journey as it helped me.

[1]What are your goals with each strategy?
[2]How will you capitalize to reach them?
[3]Have you determined a risk-reward-ratio?
[4]What are your worst case scenarios?
[5]How do you determine if your systems work / don't work? (Metrics?)
[6]Do you have clearly written down every rule of your strategy?
[7]How does it feel to trade the systems?
...

Just writing down answers to these and similar question can be a great help in my opinion.

[1] - The goal is to find a strategy that suits my personality. 3 years of trying to swing trade and forecast like a guy from 100 years ago (WD Gann) did not work out well for my trading. The goal for each strategy is the same - do I suit the strategy? Can I make consistent money with it? The first two Rounds (Scalping and Day Trading) are to experience short term trading as my personality suits this shorter horizon for feedback, correcting path, income.

[2] - Not sure what you mean here.. I will capitalize off the models and skillsets displayed by John Grady for scalping, and by SMB Capital for round 2 (holistic day trading style) and my own skills for systems programming. The shift here from my previous approach I employed for 3 years - is that instead of trying to trade a recipe and find a secret edge - I will work on the nuts and bolt trading skills employed by successful traders competitively trading in proprietary firms or equivalent and fine tune them to my own abilities. If I get a good eye for scalping and enjoy it then it could be a niche that has a multiplier effect talked about by Dr Steenbarger. ie I can get REALLY good at it. Got to find niche first though.

[3] Risk - Reward ratio is a tricky one. All my previous experience I would mechanically predefine my Risk and Reward to 3R (Profit = 3 X Risk) and (Risk <= 5% of Trading Capital). So many times I would stick to this as encouraged by the Van Tharps, and so many times where I so desperately wanted to take profit I would stay in and then lose back all my paper profits. My new goal is to be more flexible, reading the market and taking rough risk - rewards based on what I am seeing in the market, and not what I precalculated.

For Scalping - I will now declare that I want to get to the point that I am at least profitable on 70% of my trades with a Risk = Reward on average. So find areas in the ladder where 2 ticks will be enough to know that I am wrong, and to get out at market with more than 2 ticks profit.

For Day Trading - SMB employ a 5R strategy. Tight entries with Reward = 5 X Risk.

For Systems Trading - Unsure yet. But it will be a fusion of the above two methods, coded mechanically. Any guidance on a realistic Systems Risk : Reward would be appreciated.

[4] Worst Case Scenarios - I don't enjoy any of the methods and / or I can't make any money with them. I then either find new methodologies to try, find a trading coach to improve on what I do enjoy or stalk a profitable trader until they give me their secret I got into trading in all honesty because I wanted to make serious money not limited to what I can bill for an hour of my time. Then I got caught in the mystical side of things, how well can I predict the future? Now it is a challenge I want to overcome and have fun along the way. If I haven't found my way in 12 months that is 4 years I have spent searching for my answer to making money trading and I should probably find another niche in life. I estimate 15k I have spent on courses and trading losses which is not too much. On the upside because of trading I quit drinking, got back to my competitive swimming fitness levels, and as time ticked away inherited an engineering company by default (the other guy made it big in his line of business - possibly because I attracted success one way or another with all my efforts in trading?? The Secret DOES work!! haha).

[5] Systems work if I can get to the Competent level in them. ie Cover my costs. 6 weeks to make back all the ticks I lose in the learning stage, and cover data, software and commission fees. If I can do that then there is potential to take it to the next level if I am hooked on that particular method.

[6] RULES?!? Not at all. Scalping is find patterns in the depth of market and tape and take advantage of them. I gravitate towards fading size and need to work on momentum trades (see next journal entry). SMB style I will make a list of rules in an IF THEN style to follow for my selected Stocks in Play. Say I identify something that is going to get a lot of interest, then a definite price inflexion point, IF THENS to enter trades on either side. I STRONGLY have resisted writing an objective, unbreakable trading plan since day one, despite having done so on numerous occasions. For some reason I resist it a lot. I understand that we need rules as traders. Systems Trading will sort this issue out for good as the rules have to be programmed. Other than that my rules are fundamental ones - don't hold onto losses, have a positive expectancy on average, don't get too creative!

[7] Most important. I want to be able to thrive with my chosen trading system. I want to look forward to the trading sessions and I want them to integrate easily into my lifestyle (pretty active one). If it feels BAD, then I won't pursue it. I am surprisingly enjoying scalping a lot despite my negative expectancy at present. IT feels like the text only computer games I was hooked on as a kid.. strategy style. Will see if that feeling sticks around as it is a good thing. Programming feels good also - perhaps I can do both.

Thanks for encouraging me to think through these things.

Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to grahamg for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #8 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Today seemed a more successful day and was certainly captivating. From the open the markets seemed pretty dull.
Good trades were taken but scratched or had to take a small loss. I had visualized getting out of losing positions and tried to imagine the internal hope for the market to turn around and recognize that as a sign to close positions. This seemed to work alright on all my trades. Unfortunately no profitable ones for a while. I bounced back in the second hour. Lesson of this session was to be aware of what sort of market you are in. The third hour things got hectic! The bunds pretty much took off and trying to fade highs would have been terminal - but I had burnt myself out trying to catch ticks in the first two hours. I will need to work on my momentum trades as pullbacks where where I should have been scalping long. I took a bad trade at the top of a run and regretted it. This was triggered by noticing a significant step in the profile and lots of size stepping up hitting the offers. I got on a couple of ticks away from the profile step expecting breaks to new highs and ended up buying the high tick for that move. Bad move. Once again got caught up in the price action and not recognizing the low risk entry patterns (profile step, size).

It was an interesting session though and I am now aware that the opening 2 hours may not offer most of the opportunities. Unfortunately I lost my trade data from NT charts. Will make sure to get a screen capture at the end of each session from now on for trade review. I am expecting the next session to be 'Ín play' based off the action today. I will continue to focus on the size and bids though and not the volatility. Watching bids and offers pull away seemed more obvious than usual today and seem to be good signals of a move in that direction. I took an EASY tick right at the top of a move when a large iceberg held at the offer of 3000 odd in the Bobl. 50 printed above it then size hit the bids and so did I - though took one tick in the interest of having dinner as had been watching the screen 4 hours straight WILLINGLY.

One more good trade worth recalling in the future (remember the good times eh?) is being long the Bobl which was not moving (this is in the first hour). I then saw a similar pattern in the Bund as yesterday with a refreshing offer holding a lot of size. I nearly instinctively scratched the Bobl trade and hit the bids on the Bund for a 3 tick profit. Nice work me!

Enjoyment: 8/10
Trading: 7/10

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #9 (permalink)
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Rithmic
Trading: GC
 
plethora's Avatar
 
Posts: 629 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,174 given, 425 received


grahamg View Post
3 years of trying to swing trade and forecast like a guy from 100 years ago (WD Gann) did not work out well for my trading.



Best wishes that you become as great a trader as you are a writer.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #10 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received



plethora View Post


Best wishes that you become as great a trader as you are a writer.

Haha - Wait up, I should add this to


grahamg
[4] Worst Case Scenarios -

Write a book.

"Trading Isn't for Everyone - How I Turned My Failure Into Profits" - By GrahamG

Of course there are some genuine good trader / author combos out.. I'm not that cynical.

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to grahamg for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #11 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Not much progress today.

Looks like it was Rates day across Europe, or the equivalent of FOMC day in US. Have been told not to play on these days as the people I want to be playing with are steering clear. Not sure if this is correct or not but it certainly seemed like bots were ticking the Bund and Bobl too and fro. In a couple hours watching it I didn't notice any iceburgs / size holding the market so much in any particular place. I could see a few steps that could be leaned on in the Bund but the market didn't do anything exciting around these points to trigger me to do anything - just turned around and slowly ticked the other way... mostly.

I did however pull up the Eurostoxx and noted a high inverse correlation between it and the Bund. Is this normal? I had noticed it on previous days but it was pretty pronounced today.

I switched over to practicing fading some big iceburgs using market replay of the T-Bonds from a while back. Normal speed, 2X, 4X 8X got interesting. Seemed to notice I was more efficient at entering using keyboard hotkeys than the mouse. Hopefully next session some big size sticks out for me to practice this on.

My couple of unsuccessful trades in chart below. I am a bit concerned I might be getting too used to losing at this game! Behavioral psychology suggests I need to inflict more pain for losing scalps. Maybe have a candle next to the computer and if I mess up 10 seconds in the flame... nah just being silly My Amp account opened today so that could do the job but I don't want to go live if I can't make ticks on sim. That just seems stupid.


Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to grahamg for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #12 (permalink)
Los Angeles, CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker: Rithmic
Trading: GC
 
plethora's Avatar
 
Posts: 629 since Dec 2010
Thanks: 1,174 given, 425 received

Haha, I just noticed and identify with your signature line.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #13 (permalink)
Las Vegas, NV
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Abacus, Slide Rule, HP-65, Metastock, TOS, NT
Trading: Futures
 
aligator's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,424 since Aug 2010
Thanks: 1,057 given, 5,841 received


plethora View Post
Haha, I just noticed and identify with your signature line.

@plethora,

Thanks a bunch. You make me feel a lot better after taking many punches in my thread "Is trading psychology a hoax?" for saying the same thing.

Cheers!

(The message was: Learn to trade, you won't need a shrink)

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #14 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received


plethora View Post
Haha, I just noticed and identify with your signature line.

The first thing I bought for trading was Van Tharps - Peak Performance Course. So I was practicing 1980's NLP techniques to get me in the zone to trade 1910 Gann style haha. Now I can see where I may have got off track

I do like Mark Douglas' work but his core lesson makes sense - practice trading and you'll get the right mindset to be a trader. i.e. His trading exercise at the end of Trading In The Zone

I can also relate to Dr Steenbarger in Enhancing Trader Performance - which is all about building skills to trade like a performer in any sport would.

But if I had spent all the time practicing trading that I spent reading these books and many others on trading mindset... I would be miles ahead of where I am now. So until you've got the skills and proven them I think there is no point trying to get your head straight... might be trying to fix something that's not broke.

In parallel to my trading I am learning to surf and it is crazy the parallels to my trading which I might write about here soon. But out on the board today I was thinking how fitting it'd be if I paddled up to another random surfer and asked him if he knew of any good surfing psychologists to get me up and carving haha. Got buried by a wave luckily before I could pat myself on the back for that one

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to grahamg for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #15 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Today seemed much more readable, or perhaps it was just the trading drills paying dividends. The Bund seemed clearer to me today. There really was one main move in the timeframe I was watching between 8am and 11am that I could have improved on, but at least was playing the right profile levels it seems.

I didn't record my live session but these are the market replays re-enacted. Though my actual entries would have been slightly different as my NT only listed the minute I took the trade. I tried to play it the same for these recordings and then went back and played them as I best could given the right triggers. Basically looking for size and steps in the profile.

Trade 1 - Scratched

2013-01-12_0132 - Graham83's library

I was leaning on the step in the profile created at the lows here, with 142.30 holding an iceberg where the bid held about a 1000 trading into it. I was shaken out when it played back down to my entry and I scratched - of course it then moved 4 ticks in my favour where I could easily have exited at the next step up at 142.34.

Trade 2 - 2 Tick loser

2013-01-12_0957 - Graham83's library

Note the Schatz strong bids and profile step indicates a level. So does Bobl. Keeps finding support at the profile step at 142.40 so if broken I thought could get a pop down. Not sure why I wasn't thinking the opposite. ie Play the support.

Trade 3 - 2 Tick winner from 40 to 38

2013-01-12_0514 - Graham83's library

Buying power above the profile step at 142.40 really wasn't accomplishing much. Some size started to hit the bids, also in the Bund, so I took another crack below the profile step at
'40. Desperate to lock in a profit I took 2 ticks for no real reason, when it could have been 4 or 5 ticks a couple seconds later.

Trade 4 - 3 Tick winner (hit the bid at 33... panicked cause I was actually right!)

2013-01-12_0600 - Graham83's library

Only one traded down into 29, and the bid at 30 continued to hold some size.

Trade 5 - Short scalp in Bobl

2013-01-12_0627 - Graham83's library

Scalp below step in profile on Bobl for a quick two ticks. Did no look like it was going anywhere and didn't but at least grabbed 2 ticks out of it.


The replay does not much justice to the actual sim only trades that took place. I was pretty dam focused, taking into account the bids / asks in all of the schatz, bobl, bund as well as the inside market in relation to significant profile steps in each of these markets implying where support resistance are.

From the break below 142.40 in trade three to the closing of Trade 5 there was a good opportunity to sell again below 142.30 as momentum play and cover at the size at the bottoms. Not sure if I could have faded the lows as it was a couple of ticks range being being played. Kinda could have gone like this from left arrow to right:

2013-01-12_1017 - Graham83's library

Was an excellent exercise replaying each scenario and perfecting them anyway. I have a couple of other times noted that I missed pops out of steps in the profile. Was a really good day to hone my skills on in NT replay.
Came out on top in the end with potential to have made 10+ ticks in the session. My initial goal will be something along the lines of making 20+ ticks consistently a week.

Felt like a little bit of competence showing to end the week but time will tell

Enjoyment: 8/10
Trading: 7/10

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #16 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Lots of trades that would have been killed by commissions but certainly getting the hang of it.

I managed +7 Ticks with ordinary trading. If I didn't bail out of two trades early it would have been >14 ticks. My goal for this week is to end with more than 20 ticks profit. If I can do that then for 2 weeks in a row I think I might have some competence in this particular niche. I set the simulator to 400ms comms delay to be realistic as it is about 300ms ping to Chicago and Europe.

Important lesson today was when my adsl internet went down, luckily I was not in a position. I was considering going live this week but think I will iron out a few more of these issues that I probably don't know about yet. I will look into a VPS connection in Sydney close to the CQG server for ASX which should add some stability and possibly save a 100ms. With a remote connection I can dial in over ADSL and have a standby over the mobile network.

Will review notes and show the setup I missed tomorrow and type up my written journal entries describing the DOM at certain junctures.

In the meantime I thought I would turn the DOM into an instrument so perhaps one of these days I can sit back and listen for the perfect entry. Check it out:

01.14.2013-11.34.55 - Graham83's library

Ah - the idea is now my sole intellectual property

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #17 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

I gathered from my review that I need to be more aggressive - ie attack more on my hunches. A lot of times I called the market out I didn't take action and would have made some ticks.

At some good levels I need to sense to hold on longer as I missed some fast moves immediately after exiting for a small scalp profit.


Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #18 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Ticks profit +11

I set my simulation delay to 400ms and am happy now that this delay won't effect me so much.

I added a auto failover 3G modem to my adsl router for continuous internet connection which is the next thing out of the way.

I then nailed +11 ticks in 2 hours of intense order flow reading. Should have been +14 if not for a mad goof up around 10:07 AM.

Amazing how much you can get a sense of whats about to happen, what levels are important, and when to hold on. Though I could still just be kidding myself. 3 profitable days in a row, and believe me when these 3 days would easily represent 3 months of my old style of trading in trades, and 3 years in intensity! And I am only in SIM mode!! I like having to fight for each tick - it must suit me in some way.

Best scalp was 9:05 @ '94 - held through back ticks for burst to '97 @ 9:11. Then kicked in the momentum play I had practiced for an hour today at all sorts of replay speeds. Got back in '99, out at '03 and top of move. Next trade failed and I could work on reversing position in these scenarios in the future.

Will try get to the end of the week profitable each day then next week trade one contract.

Enjoyment 8+/10
Trading 8 / 10



Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #19 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

I managed to grind my way back to a few ticks profit after 3 ticks down in the first hour. I don't like days like today but found I can make money still if I am patient enough. The levels still hold enough importance to give a few ticks break out though do not expect any follow through on days like today. 2-3 ticks profit targets seemed the most realistic.

Lost my NT trade data somehow but not much to report for this day other than I am finding myself hooked on this game.

Enjoyment: 7/10
Trading: 7/10 considering

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #20 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Got slammed today.

It was enough to nearly bring me to tears because the selling just would not stop. I was very proud of my weeks paper profits with 4 profitable days in a row but that got completely destroyed in the morning sessions selling. The only positive for the day is that I got to experience this sought of self destruction on the SIM. I would probably be giving up trading for a good time if it was my real account.

Many factors that could have contributed to me being an absolute amateur including a full day of playing in the sun and 2 hours trading practice leading into the open, but in all, during the timeframe that I have got used to successful trading the last few 8 trading days, a whole different game was being played of which my skillset was not going to get a chance.

Right now as I have called it quits I hope that the market remains consistently in this behavior for the next few hours so I can at least categorize today easily as a type of trading day to either not participate in, or to play the Schatz extremely cautiously only. The volume of 150k+ in the second hour versus 50k,48k,28k the previous few days could be a signal to be cautious.

I have to add a rule to get out at a maximum drawdown for the day and not trade. My emotions were running wild at 6 ticks down and this was just the start. Perhaps that is the line in the sand - Negative SIX = no more trading.

I will have to go over the replay and see what signs there were that the usual breakouts of profile steps were not going to work out. I had a strong urge to pull up a chart to explain the happenings - of which a daily chart shows the down trend we are in but the market behavior really felt like there was bigger and longer term players selling.

Maybe this is what is talked about as 'not a day trader day'. But my lack of skills is the more likely factor here.

Don't add up the ticks. I held on to way too many losers to call myself a trader

Enjoyment: 8/10
Fear: 10/10
Trading: 1/10


Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to grahamg for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #21 (permalink)
Munich
 
 
Posts: 29 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 3 given, 33 received


Quoting 
I hope that the market remains consistently in this behavior for the next few hours

Generally in my opinion, if you start "hoping" you are on the wrong track. It is a good measurement to notice that something is wrong, so if you realized that, you made something positive out of the day!


Quoting 
I have to add a rule to get out at a maximum drawdown for the day and not trade. My emotions were running wild at 6 ticks down and this was just the start.

If you get emotional on your losses, i would suggest trying to find a risk value that does not hurt and start with that to evaluate your system. For example, we are playing our new swing system with only 0,3% of total equity for risk, because we know that we can easily tolerate a loss of about $400 per trade. Try to find a value where you can easily tolerate the pain of a loss, so you can be more objective about your system (if you get too emotional, you may even screw a good system and will never know if it actually works). If you feel confidence growing, increase your risk step by step as long as you feel no difference when taking a loss (if you do, get back to smaller amount).

Another thing i would consider is adding a rule to reverse your position if you feel your current view of the market may be wrong.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to puravida for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #22 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Thanks for the advice. The emotion is more relevant to the competitiveness of it... So losing six ticks after making twenty in the week is like giving back an awesome lead in a long race. This is only on sim too but I found in my previous trading system that losing money didn't bother me. I would make it back either trading or selling some software every time.

I am wondering how to incorporate rules into this sort of discretionary trading. If a profitable trading system is completely objective, then it an be coded, and probably already is coded, and running more efficiently then I could. I spent three years with 3R this, risk = x% capital etc and it wasn't working for me. When I spoke with a prop firm about a job they said to forget everything about my objective swing trading rules which was a shock. So I am approaching this as trading is a skill to be learned, just like tennis, or chess. Playing these games like a computer is never going to beat the computer version... Unless its set to easy mode . So currently a losing day, or trade, is like losing a round of boxing on the Wii, or a grueling match of tennis. I enjoy this new aspect to trading as it makes it real. I read lots of books that say emotions should not be present for successful trading.... But then read about very successful traders who have standby keyboards for there daily outburst incase it involves smashing a keyboard.

Just a ramble I know... I guess my point is I would be just as frustrated losing $400 as $4000.... Probably more on the 400. If I were to lose 4k a few times I would be forced out of the game and probably go on a holiday. Today to combat the emotion I did my usual hour meditation right before the trading session which helped. It was obvious after my first loss that I was trying to revenge trade so I stood up and looked at the ocean for a minute, took a few breaths, and got on with it and made some good trades. But the bots beat me in the end in today's market.

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to grahamg for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #23 (permalink)
Munich
 
 
Posts: 29 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 3 given, 33 received


Quoting 
I am wondering how to incorporate rules into this sort of discretionary trading.

As with everything i say, i am not sure if it works for you, but thats the way it worked for us so far:

We have strict swing rules that define the follwing:
1) how much R to risk and the initial stop (this one is a bit discretionary if the system fails to see the correct support) "cut your losses short, know your risk"
2) when to get break even (+ small profit for costs) "you can reenter anytime when wipsawed"
3) when to take 2R for sure "it is actually enough to reach our target of 8R, but..."
4) when to trail and how "...let your winners run"

To accept a trade as potential tradeable
5) 2,5 R must be given as potential to next resistance
6) volatility must be in a certain range to ensure more or less equal position sizing on total money

the discretionary part is:
1) what stocks to trade from the list of potential ones ("gut instinct")
2) if the overall market is right to use the system

I have coded the system pure mechanical (so it takes every potential trade), but it never reached the performance we have with the discretionary part, so we decided to have the entry generally discretionary, but afterwards everything is rule based so we can easily follow our strategies without emotional interference.

So i think what could be the key is to find the parts in your discretionary trading that interfere most with your emotions and make them rule based, keep from the discretionary part whatever works and feels good. Most likely the exit is the most critical part, so i suggest focus on that one first.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to puravida for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #24 (permalink)
desert CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, SC, ToS
Broker: AMP, DT, TDA
Trading: CL,NQ,YM
 
Posts: 2,134 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 2,387 given, 1,723 received


grahamg View Post
Maybe this is what is talked about as 'not a day trader day'. But my lack of skills is the more likely factor here.


Wed and Thursday seemed tough for me too. CNBC reported "volume" was coming back into the markets. So I would assume a lot of the HFT and firms were back to run stops and fool retailers with whiplash. Some of my setups were certainly faked out. For example it's very hard to read price action on the CL on minute charts these days. So many spikes and action occurring intrabar.

Looking at your chart, I assume you're using DOM tape for your setups? I'm a complete novice on that style of trading and am just beginning to learn about it. But maybe it would be good to learn about price action and observing candlesticks. Just saying it's been said some experienced traders usually have at least a secondary working method to fall back on in case the first method is going through a period of difficult trading. I would recommend Corey Rosenbloom's recent webinar on futures.io (formerly BMT) and Al Brook's material.

I've added a markup of part of your chart illustrating some of Al Brook's price action ideas on your bare chart. Personally I find it easier to trade with extra indicators but many try to trade Brooks PA similar to his style of a bare chart with a single 20/21 EMA moving average. Vince Virgil's "CL Trades lite" and "Cl Trades" journals and videos show examples of his take on BPA. Good luck.

Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	vOjiDFEz81.jpg
Views:	93
Size:	380.7 KB
ID:	100021  
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Cloudy for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #25 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Hey @Cloudy!

Thanks a lot for this work (markup of chart). I watched Brooks webinar last week and certainly am interested in researching price action further. Your bit of work has convinced me its worth a shot. I will probably add it as a Round of 6 weeks.

Right now I am purely scalping off the DOM - using Jigsaw. My entry points are based mainly off obvious steps in the profile on the DOM - ie obvious changes in volume traded between different price levels. This I suppose is my 'edge' assuming I read it well. If size trades at these steps and my feel for the order flow suggests a breakout then I try to scalp a few ticks. I guess in theory it should match up reasonably well with the S/R levels identified by price action also as steps in the profile would naturally exist at significant Support / Resistance levels.

On price action I nearly bought the priceactionroom courses - any thoughts on this material? Is Price Action .. Price Action? ie Set rules - or is it Al Brooks / FuturesTrader71 independent you think?

Cheers.

Graham

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to grahamg for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #26 (permalink)
desert CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7, SC, ToS
Broker: AMP, DT, TDA
Trading: CL,NQ,YM
 
Posts: 2,134 since Jul 2011
Thanks: 2,387 given, 1,723 received

Hi Grahamg!,

Your welcome. Glad my markup seemed helpful to you. I haven't seen the "priceactionroom"'s material yet. I'll try their free weekly update videos newsletter to see what I think about it. I think the main thing about BPA (Brook's price action) is that it provides a structure to the price behavior. Once you get used to the various patterns and observe the varying candlesticks. It's kind of like learning the general "traffic rules" or "flow of traffic" of the price road but in a generalized way which can also help with the uncertainty in trading. At least one can recognize on some familiar level what price is doing rather than discerning no pattern at all i.e. "a random walk".

Here's a link to the publisher's website of Al's books. Each page has some viewable excerpts:
Wiley: Search Results

Also some free files from Brook's website:


And Al has done about 4 webinars on futures.io (formerly BMT) which are available here on futures.io (formerly BMT) in the elite area, or on the futures.io (formerly BMT) youtube channel:
BigMikeTrading's channel - YouTube

I don't think FT71 covers price action the way Al does. In fact I think the recent futures.io (formerly BMT) webinar by Corey Rosenbloom covers a simple and fine opening range strategy too. Yes, there are varying methodologies on price action. Brook's is highly recognized here, and I like his material personally because it covers a lot more interactive thinking examples and charts in the books. However, I don't trade exactly like Al does. It's very hard to trade exactly like him for many. I use a combo of dual MA's , candlestick analysis and some Brook's patterns as seen in my old journal. (recent example here: )But being aware of the structure plus using another methodology can help combine into a better confirmed trade imo and it was significant step in my personal learning journey. For example maybe you can use your skill with the jigsaw DOM to see if the tape behavior coincides significantly with a Brook's entry or current price sentiment or vice versa.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Cloudy for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #27 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Today I started out alright but got cut up in some chop after 9.30 AM. I was aware that it was a holiday in the US and that there was a good chance that markets across the board would be slow. The Bund and Bobl certainly represented this theory well. Since I have decided not go live this week after some serious lessons at the end of last week I figured I would try the experience of trading the market anyway. I have a good nack of making SIM trading feel real as I get really competitive with it. This is mainly as I am mentally committed to the 6 week trial and want nothing more than to know I can make the bread and butter off a couple of hours trading each evening at the end of the six weeks - how sweet that would be!

The volume was dramatically less than previous days and behavior that of back and forth slowly in a down trend. Not easy to read. After I got chopped up I called it quits at 7 ticks down. Not sure if I would have made money in the subsequent moves anyway as the sort of things I were looking for were just not there - ie icebergs, size, any sort of flow.

For anyone reading I daily review my trading (now with Camtasia). Spend at least an hour or two practicing ideal setups using Ninjatrader Market Replay as represented by John Grady in his September webinar. Read a couple chapters of Brett Steenbergers Enhancing Trader Performance. Also I am working on my audio trading ladder if anyone noticed that example video.

Enjoyment: 6/10
Trading: 6/10


Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #28 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Couple of good trades. I identified the ideal setup I had practiced all day and missed it - well missed the signs to reverse position. More practice?

The ZEW (?) announcement really shook up the market at 11AM. Not to self - don't trade these yet... until the market has slowed down afterwards. I haven't seen an out and out assault panic sell off while watching the DOM yet like yesterdays. It wasn't as large a range day as I have seen - but the market plunged with orders hitting the market anywhere within what looked like an 8 tick range.

Enjoyment: 7/10
Trading: 7/10 (Before I blew up at the announcement. I would not have taken these trades after 11am if it was real $.. hmmmmm.. am I getting too used to SIM?)


Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #29 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

So these Eurex trading sessions are starting to become habit and my trading does not seem to be going in any direction. I take some good trades and think I can do it, then take some bad trades (technically bad) lose a bunch and start from square one, BUT motivated to get back in the black. Unfortunately by this time the market has usually quietened down and i get cut up in the process.

The obvious thing is to master the setups that I got in the flow with during the first 2-3 hours of trading, cut back on the silly trades and take the most out of the good ones. Reviewing the last three trading sessions today should help me with that. For the setups and feel for the order flow I am finding that the market only really gets going 9AM Eurex time, and may run for 2 hours after that. After this time I start making more mistakes and / or the order flow has gotten harder to read (for me), unless some important numbers come out.

I am becoming more aware of how I get caught up in the speed / movement of prices instead of watching for players show there hand when trading size and jumping on board. Most of my losing trades fall into the category of trying to catch the train after it already left, followed by jumping in front of the train a bit early. Reversals generally take time to play out with multiple tests of the new levels on lighter volume... or so I've been told and partially noticed.

Going to get out of the habit of gambling on SIM mode after I have mentally called it quits for the session, but want to have a poke to see if somethings works. This can't be productive one way or the other. If I make money on these hit or miss trades I will be reinforcing bad habits. If I cop a hit, I shrug it off as a trade I wouldn't have taken. Starting to think seriously of trading one lots instead of SIM. I have the next No BS webinar starting next week so will wait until after that.

Trading this last session I had some good trades, and should have held on a second longer for what was a great move. Then took an impulse trade and lost most of it. Ended up with -1 ticks.

Enjoyment: 8/10
Trading: 7/10

Bund Trades:


Bobl Trades:



BTW I have been recording each session as of Monday. If anyone with experience in this style of trading and wouldn't mind having a look at my tactics let me know and will gladly send you.

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #30 (permalink)
Bridgwater, UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker: MB Trading
Trading: Forex
 
mokodo's Avatar
 
Posts: 384 since Jun 2011
Thanks: 525 given, 346 received


grahamg View Post
Going to get out of the habit of gambling on SIM mode after I have mentally called it quits for the session, but want to have a poke to see if somethings works. This can't be productive one way or the other. If I make money on these hit or miss trades I will be reinforcing bad habits.

Following your thread and thought I'd chime in. You've got a good thing here, in that you have already identified the issue 'I will be reinforcing bad habits'. Next step is - what is your plan to stop this pattern of behaviour?

know thyself
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #31 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received


mokodo View Post
...you have already identified the issue 'I will be reinforcing bad habits'. Next step is - what is your plan to stop this pattern of behaviour?

Good point - last night I stopped trading when I had the urge to be reckless and chimed in after a breather - and scalped my way into profits for the day with a 6 tick winner. That must be positive reinforcement of a good habit (stopping) - so I will repeat it.

Its important not to try and make money all the time, and to make it OK not to take a trade if I am not seeing it. This is simple enough but that urge to have to earn a living (by making trades) seems to creep up on me sometimes overwhelming the will to only take good trades and thus I take 'boredom'trades.. Trading intraday now though makes it a lot easier because I trading way more actively then my swing trading days. Each day I finish up feeling like I've done my bit Just got to make sure I'm actually banking coin now.

Enjoyment: 8/10
Trading: 7/10

Bund


Bobl

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to grahamg for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #32 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

I have been bitten in the ass by the real world this week so won't be trading. I have the No BS webinars following US Bonds from midnight to 3am which I will try to catch, if any market action this week. In the mean time its me verse the coal mines Can't wait to get back to the Bund!

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #33 (permalink)
Newcastle, Australia
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Multicharts 8 - Full Version
Broker: IB
Trading: SPI,FTSE100, 6E, 6A
 
Posts: 285 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 108 given, 185 received


grahamg View Post
I have been bitten in the ass by the real world this week so won't be trading. I have the No BS webinars following US Bonds from midnight to 3am which I will try to catch, if any market action this week. In the mean time its me verse the coal mines Can't wait to get back to the Bund!

Yes it was/is very wet.
I drove down from Mooloolaba on Sunday and back to Newcastle, only just made it through.

Regards,
Neil.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #34 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received



Was off to a great start today, with it being a good day trading session - even though the session is technically still going.

I was considering calling it quits about an hour in 10 ticks up - figured the market was getting harder to read and I would potentially give back my profits playing the game for the sake of it. And this did occur - but because of one trade. I held onto a loser, I watched it go against me, more, then more, then some more, but it was sure to come back.. This is the problem with simulation trading because the pain would have got me out much earlier at worst - and I probably would have taken just the two tick loss which I hesitated on just long enough for the market to cascade against me. I then justified it as just a Simulation trade - BIG problem. Next week I really should start to trade one lots as I just aren't taking SIM seriously enough anymore it seems.

I am starting to get a feel for the type of action and times I am most comfortable in. The most definitive is I am not comfortable trading into 9AM. The UK market opens and lots of crazy stuff goes on. Trading into the turn of the hour in general is causing me to give back some profits. Generally news IS coming out - but it also occurs without news - probably the one hour timeframe players adjusting their positions. FIVE past the hour is when things get into a better groove.

Regardless am really enjoying the game and would have had a good session if it wasn't for that blow up.

I like the idea of walking away if I have X amount of profit early on - seems it could be an advantageous strategy.. what you think?


Trading: 8/10 (+ negative 10 for holding onto the loss)
Enjoyment: 8/10

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #35 (permalink)
Bridgwater, UK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker: MB Trading
Trading: Forex
 
mokodo's Avatar
 
Posts: 384 since Jun 2011
Thanks: 525 given, 346 received


grahamg View Post
I like the idea of walking away if I have X amount of profit early on - seems it could be an advantageous strategy.. what you think?

I think safeguarding profits is a must. Have you thought about a stop loss on your day/week/month? Once you hit a certain profit objective only risk your profits down to a certain level, if you hit your profit stop loss then shut it down. This may give you freedom to exploit days when you are in a sweet spot, but protect from the (possible high) chances you are not at all in a sweet spot, just got a good winner earlier and believe you control the universe and subsequent hand back all your gains.

Just a thought to add to the mix.

Happy trading.

know thyself
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to mokodo for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #36 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received


NW27 View Post
Yes it was/is very wet.
I drove down from Mooloolaba on Sunday and back to Newcastle, only just made it through.

Regards,
Neil.

Ha missed this - my last Monday consisted of 1.5 hour trying to drive inland, moving some road closed barriers, retreating back to the prior road closed barriers and an hour back to the coast, then up to Brisbane to catch my original flight which had been delayed by 6 hours and NOT cancelled as I had bet on .. haha. Flew into Newie then 6 hours to drive to Mudgee cause it was flooding on Golden Highway. Fun stuff.

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #37 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received



I set the task of making 10 ticks then walking away. This allowed me to zone in completely like I haven't done before. It wasn't the greatest flowing morning, but there were spots where tension built and it seems I managed to take advantage of them.

I started with a scratch trade, then a 1 tick loss. Then +4, +4, +4. Going to replay some market action today and see if I can establish some sort of consistency with this 10 tick goal. I'm sure traditionally you aren't supposed to focus on making X amount in a given sitting - but it seems the more I watch the ladder, the more opportunities are just sitting there waiting to be taken advantage of early on - and the longer I play the game the more I give back.

The most obvious is during the opening 30 minutes - Half of the days I have been watching, there is a move above or below the open on light volume. Then still on a light volume a step in the profile will build up and hold and is good for a few ticks or more back to the open, or in its direction at least. Some sort of play on this usually seems to occur and for the first two weeks I would kick myself for not having played because the volume was too light in fear of a sweep occurring - but its almost as if the players that would sweep on a couple hundred are letting us have that first half hour while waiting for bigger players to enter the game.

Secondly market action usually gets way more interesting around 8.45AM leading into the stock market open. A good breakout I find generally occurs between 8.45AM and 9AM. Though I don't like to play between 8.55 and 9.05 as its a bit too erratic. After 9.05 it seems way more readable than later in the day - or it could be that I am way more in tune during this early period. If market action is still slow, the times to watch after then are the 15 minute intervals of the hour, where it seems to me that larger timeframe players are managing their positions, and the profile ranges seem to be as good as any to scalp a few ticks out of, or within.

I don't trade during countdowns on Talking-forex when numbers are coming out and a few minutes either side generally.

The other correlation worth noting is the FESX. If Bund is at its lows and FESX its highs - they seem to play off each other quite well and vice versa.

So within those ingredients I want to be able to make my 10 ticks each day... most days.

I haven't been updating every day due to distractions but definitely have been trading on sim the first few hour of the Bunds. Probably about time I play the REAL game.

Got video of my trading last night if anyone wants me to screencast it.

Enjoyment: 9/10
Trading: 9/10

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #38 (permalink)
Newcastle, Australia
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Multicharts 8 - Full Version
Broker: IB
Trading: SPI,FTSE100, 6E, 6A
 
Posts: 285 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 108 given, 185 received

Can you actually make money off 4 tick trades, when you factor in slippage and brokerages?

Regards,
Neil.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #39 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

For Eurobund my overhead is:

Commission - 1.86 R/T per contract
Data - Free CQG with AMP Futures / Ninjatrader
Software - Free - Bought and Payed for Ninjatrader

Slippage - ZERO unless I am sweeping market orders which is not the case. I trade directly from the Jigsaw DOM, and I am either working limit orders or lifting offers / hitting bids at limit also. The worst case scenario with my order routing is that I don't get filled before the move takes off. I have the simulator set at 500ms delay as its about ~300ms round trip I estimate for order routing. My data is coming from the CQG server in Sydney at ~30ms delay + CQG Global data delay ?

One tick in Eurobund is 10 Euros. So 4 ticks would profit me 40 Euro per contract minus roughly 2 euros commission. This is with flat rate commission and not tiered which I could get less than 1 euro with tiered commissions trading size.

Of course got overhead of Internet and other utilities but the way I see it - if I can consistently make say 10 ticks a day on average.. or even 40 ticks a week. The nature of the Bunds I reckon I could trade 10 contracts with same tactics as one (assuming one contract works out).. that's ~4000 euro a week - commissions..?

My goal with this Bund trading, as unrealistic even to me at this stage that it seems, is just that. Make 40 ticks a week trading with upto 10 contracts. To add over optimism to it - I wanna do that in the first 3 hours of trading only which is ideal for my lifestyle - 5 to 8pm trading. Not too much to ask?

Let me know if I am missing something obvious here but I hope I have covered it all - one could easily live off consistent 4 tick profits My background of chasing multi-day week swings with pyramiding to turn X into 1000 X seemed a lot less realistic than 4 ticks. I was using the moon at some stage in there though so that comparison might not mean too much

EDIT: The obvious factor is how many trades it takes me to make the 10 ticks per day - then commissions can add up I guess. Gotta be selective.


Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to grahamg for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #40 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Today I bought a live NT license in order to trade live this evening. With a trembling hand I took my first real EuroBund Futures trade with a one lot where I probably shouldn't have, as it immediately resulted in the biggest snap back I have experienced yet even in simulator mode. Well realistically I probably would have held the trade in SIM mode and exited when 30 seconds later it snapped back 6 ticks. So some very obvious change in trading behavior has been self-observed already between Live and Sim trading.

a) I knew the trading volume and bid and asks were way to light for my (supposed) skillset. I took a trade based off my simulator experience that i could see a sweep to new highs based because of the lack of interest - but obviously just as likely a sweep back on me which hurt the wallet this time. Only 6 ticks but that is double what I would accept as normal. I also would definitely have taken this exit again because 6 ticks could just as easily turn into 12 in todays market action (and would have 5 minutes later)

b) I would have held onto the trade longer on simulator mode cause the sweep back was too shocking and hoped for recovery which in this case I got. In reality pain of 6 ticks against with real $$ was enough to cut losses.

Fortunately a complete software failure had me out of the market long enough to realise today is a NO PLAY day unless volume significantly picks up for a sustained period - maybe US market open.

The large software failure after great live support from the Jigsaw team and Ninjatrader team but NOT the Amp Futures team (call back later as usual) - was self inflicted. For chart data purposes I had my date set to yesterdays to line up with the US Friday session when it was Saturday here. This caused my historical data to not load - NT to crash when refreshing all historical data, and my market depth to not display correctly. So for anyone with these symptoms in the future - CHECK YOUR COMPUTER DATE.

Still looking forward to some more market action to get experience with real $$. Bunds seem to have been pretty quiet the last few days. This is occurring during a supposed rally on the daily chart - my old swing trading ways would suggest a rally on light volume means its not mean to last - but what do I know

Til next time.

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #41 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Today was balls again.

The relative volume to last 30 days kept sloping down - I tried to pick off some moves in the Bobl as it was less sporadic then the Bund - but ended up bailing out of a trade for one tick once it became apparent wasn't going anywhere - which I could have taken 2 ticks very early in the position, and should have done knowing the market was slow.

I then gave in for the day on anything exciting happening, then just before going to bed noticed some movement and volume pick up going into the US session. Mainly the Bund kept breaking down and the Bobl following. After a few rally attempts a good step in the profile seemed to hold in the Bund. Problem is I was committed to trading the Bobl by this point for some reason - which seemed to be doing nothing other than lifting bids and offers depending on what the Bund did. So I got filled at the equivalent step in the Bund in the Bobl with NO evidence of size trading to support that step - immediately lost three ticks - then mentally stabbed myself to sleep.



All good - only 2 ticks down for the day total - and a few more trades under the belt with real Euros to get the jitters out of the way. I am a bit worried that I get too excited when in trades with (and without) real $$. Not scared of loss necessarily - but definitely notice a bit of adrenaline in the system - which according to all the books I read limits my capacity to make decisions bla bla bla. Does this make me wrong material for trading or what? With my swing trading I was risking 1000 bucks per trade and right now easing into scalping I am risking a mere 20 euros - but maybe it is the watching the real market auction take place of which I am a very small part of that makes it more real than the swing trading. We'll see. Tomorrow i must improve my trading, and hopefully conditions are right to do that

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to grahamg for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #42 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Today the Bund was a one way street for the morning session - I struggled to get a read on it.

As can be seen from the chart I took one long trade in Bund - thinking we might have reached a bottom but took just one tick profit when it failed to break out of the profile range.



The Bobl I was more comfortable in and dabbled a bit scratching trades. I gave up not long after on expecting the trend to reverse and not sure why I was obsessed with the idea anyway. The US session things picked up with a lot of strength to the upside. The Bobl and Bund were playing some games though it appeared. It was suggested to me by someone in a skype room that the Bids and Offers were being used in the Bobl to play the Bund. This makes sense as the Bobl was not trading much at all but had many more limits sitting at each price. It makes sense now actually that this is probably usually the case. As the Bund does all the moving, and the Bobl mainly drops bids and offers eventually to get in line - OR - when size does trade in the Bobl it leads the move in the Bund. The top of a profile step held the market solidly and I jumped and took one took only because just was not feeling it - there were plenty of buyers and plenty of sellers.

[screencast]http://screencast.com/t/0yU2A6UnIhA[\screencast]

Probably makes more sense to post the real picture of what I look at when I trade, this makes me look at it from neutral eyes the next day also which is good.

Trade 1:
Trade 2:
Trade 3:
Trade 4: Video - Feb 13 - Trade 4 Video - Graham83's library (fast forwarded)

This last trade is a good example of what I SHOULD be trading - some size started playing at the limits in the profile in the Bobl. I entered with an iceberg confident that it wasn't going to break - the Bunds were already moving down. Having followed the action for 7 hours I figured it was pretty improbably to get a quick break down - and took a tick to end on good terms. As it turns out I might have been reading the order flow well because the video shows that the market held there then fell away. I was in bed

Trading: 6/10
Enjoyment: 5/10 suffering
Profit: +2 Ticks

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #43 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Logged on for start of session to find that my Eurex CQG data had been disabled by Amp Futures again.

I will just say that why have a 24 hour support desk that can't do anything to help until the daytime support desk opens technically

Amp Futures would be greatly improved if the very quick to respond overnight help desk can do more for you than say

"I have assisted you as much as I can, I have forwarded our chat to Level 2 who will contact you at 7AM CST"

This has happened twice now - Just give the dude a login for the system so he can click on the dam Eurex Enable box.

Thats all for the day - so no trading as I had no account. All sorted now. Hopefully Friday is as exciting market wise.

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #44 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

One thing I did notice when watching the Bund / Bobl on sim - was how the 50% of the daily range acted as support. I am trying to focus on order flow as I used to be way to obsessed with prices being a reason why the market should reverse. But still pretty cool that my old friend 50% worked on both markets - reducing the probability of coincidence that 50% is important (by how much?)

There are lots of lines here but the red arrows point to the days 50%.


Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #45 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Friday I had another hack - made some ticks, lost some ticks, made some idiot errors (exited a position and failsafe stop ALSO hit before I could remove it.. gave up my 6 ticks profit for the day pretty quick trying to correct that one..), and most importantly, was still massively trigger shy - many moments I watched pressure build at a level, and thought 'I am going to get on this'.. 'just a little longer'.. 'when it comes back to that spot I will get on it' and of course 'oh yeah - there is the 4 tick pop.. I missed it.. f*$k my life'.

So the goal for this week is to take trades I want to - and I am not sure this is right - but not focus on making a profit and be completely ok with losing $$ (yeah right!) I wanna execute something equivalent to the Mark Douglas exercise of taking a sample set of trades, mainly to remove my jitters. Problem is I don't have anything mechanical for this type of trading which is purposely NON mechanical - and my trading entry criteria is totally intangible... if not completely. I think I see pressure building up that will give short term opportunity for a few ticks in a specific direction and that is it. Ninjatrader metrics show that I was correct nearly 70% of the time on my trades - with other metrics screwing me (that I won't go into here). If only I could take trades as freely on the one lots as I did in sim I should be right.. right? But its not that simple - after a week of trading one lots I evaluate the 3 full weeks of Sim trading about as valuable as having taken one trade with a one lot. So a) The three weeks was an incredible waste of time b) no more sim trading c) time to get on track with the one lots.

So the one thing I am happy with is trading the Bund. It is way more liquid and active than the Aussie SPI or treasuries, trades at good hours for me (5pm to 9pm is morning session + US session adds further opportunities form 11pm to 1am if I am that way inclined).

So I am happy sticking with the Bund - I need some tangible way to take numerous trades using techniques I enjoyed watching in the No BS webinars, though as executed in the US treasuries. Not quite sure it can be done. Perhaps there is a tangible set of psychological triggers that I can execute off - like 'that is the level I want to trade at based on what I have seen - yep there my hand is trembling with anticipation (of failure or excitement?) '.. Got a few hours to ponder on this one but that is where I am at.

Brainstorming - Will take all trades I deem as reversals in the order flow. Possibly the BEST resource I have come across so far is the three part webinar series by Peter Davies from Jigsaw Trading, hosted on Topstep: Friday 11th January Webinar – Introduction to Order Flow (Topstep Trader) | Jigsaw Trading

I definitely don't have any cake! And the Icing is of unknown flavour - but lets see what I say at the end of the week - wishing myself luck.

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to grahamg for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #46 (permalink)
Tulsa OK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader/Jigsaw Tools
Broker: Deep Discount Trading/TT
Trading: ZN, ZB
 
Posts: 162 since Jul 2009
Thanks: 138 given, 207 received

Nice journal, I am trying out the DOM only trading thing for the next 6 months also. I like John's approach, I wonder if 6 weeks will be enough for you to pick it up? I am giving myself 6 months before I force a decision on continuing or not.

Edit: Meant to say thanks for the webinar link.

20,000,000
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to jimjones26 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #47 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received


jimjones26 View Post
Nice journal, I am trying out the DOM only trading thing for the next 6 months also. I like John's approach, I wonder if 6 weeks will be enough for you to pick it up? I am giving myself 6 months before I force a decision on continuing or not.

Edit: Meant to say thanks for the webinar link.

No worries and thank you.

I hear you on the six weeks. This would be the fourth / fifth week already. I think I need to give it three months like John said. Beauty of these skills is that everything builds on top of them.. So mastering this order flow scalping will pay dividends for any further day trading methods. Plus with the hours needed i can easily experiment with programming systems around my trading commitments.. The One Good Trade trading style trading would roll off this also but it might not even go there if this scalping works and subsequent position day trading. So heres to another two months of order flow scalping!

What are you trading btw with the No BS tactics?

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to grahamg for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #48 (permalink)
Tulsa OK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader/Jigsaw Tools
Broker: Deep Discount Trading/TT
Trading: ZN, ZB
 
Posts: 162 since Jul 2009
Thanks: 138 given, 207 received


grahamg View Post
No worries and thank you.

I hear you on the six weeks. This would be the fourth / fifth week already. I think I need to give it three months like John said. Beauty of these skills is that everything builds on top of them.. So mastering this order flow scalping will pay dividends for any further day trading methods. Plus with the hours needed i can easily experiment with programming systems around my trading commitments.. The One Good Trade trading style trading would roll off this also but it might not even go there if this scalping works and subsequent position day trading. So heres to another two months of order flow scalping!

What are you trading btw with the No BS tactics?

I am in the U.S. so I have been trading treasuries. I have the 10yr note, 30yr bond and 5yr note setup on my screen just like John does in his videos, but I am trading the 10yr only right now. Smaller $ per tick is going to allow me to be wrong more often, so once I finally get the hang of it I should have more Risk Capital available.

20,000,000
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #49 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Monday markets were dead due to the US holiday session. I grabbed a three tick scalp during the open but then things settled into an algorithmic ebb and flow from my point of view.

Tuesday I stepped up and stepped straight back down again. Certainly not seeing the markets through the same eyes as on sim. Relative volume showed this day as quiet still which came as a surprise as I thought things would pick up after the US holiday globally. I stepped in front of a few trains and managed to sell the low on one occasion before calling it quits at my six tick daily stop (which would stretch to ten if needs be). I decided to write out what I figured scalping actually was inspired by Peter Davies webinar series..and pretty much taking his word on what order flow meant. Will post a cut down version of it just now but after two hours of defining it I realized I have probably been flying a bit blinder than I should be. Yes folks... Maybe I do need to define some rules on what actually constitutes an order flow scalp. Mainly seemings as trading one lots of the bund, feeling alone does not seem to cut it as I am not taking all those same trades I took on the sim. No sure if I should be either.... I think those ten ticks are definitely possibly but need to work through some things first. A) need to be able to pull the trigger. B) need to have some definition of when I should be pulling the trigger so can measure when I am missing out on opportunity and when I am not

For A) I am hoping for a good day trading day according to the relative volume profile, going to set a basic rule or two with order flow and hopefully fire away

B is a little more complicated and is covered in the summary I wrote up.. TBC

BTW This might be turning more into a blog than a trading journal but ah well. It's helping me progress.

I found the FT71 site also and realize a few of the missing links I am looking for are probably in the webinars if anyone hasn't checked it out yet.

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #50 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Bout time I figured out what I am actually trying to do here as getting a bit lost with Scalping the Order Flow. My point of reference is the 3 webinars by Peter Davies from Jigsaw which really seemed to put into perspective what I had observed and tried to incorporate from all the No BS Stuff - but couldn't quite put a definition on what I was looking for in the DOM.

I want to focus on making scalping pay first instead of playing intraday positions. Which means I want to be able to trade off a higher level skillset for understanding the order flow - it seems like a logical way of doing things and a quicker way to rely on trading for $$.

From the webinars - I have defined Trading the Order Flow as looking for places in the market where Absorption is occurring and Market orders are fading away in one direction while increasing in the other? The three factors that work together to define that line in the sand:-

1.Absorption

2.Buyers/Sellers Fading Away

3.Sellers/Buyers Coming In

These things can happen all at once, or only one of them - the skill comes in detecting the balance and drawing a line in the sand where a reversal or 'pop' should occur based on the order flow. The scale of these components occurring theoretically should allows me to scalp on pullbacks in a daily trend, and at major reversals for the days trading range. I feel I have developed some intuitive feel for it but massively trigger shy - often getting the feel for a reversal, though without the nerve to trade that feel, and subsequently getting frustrated on missing out.

So with my tactic for scalping off order flow, I don't want to place a trade without expecting at least 3 to 4 ticks in a short amount of time, based off what I have seen in the Bund, leaving the possibility to hold for longer (a couple of minutes) if the ticks are strongly moving in my favor and no signs of an order flow reversal occurring (absorption etc). With 3 ticks profit I will need to be very selective of where I place trades. I want to find places that I can place a trade where I risk worst case scenario 3 ticks, and preferably 1 or 2 ticks. How do I define such and locate such narrow lines in the sand..?

I would need to define what type of market it is as different volume activity in the Bund seems to mean the line in the sand is respected or it just isn't (Again from Jigsaw), I have seen that the Relative Volume seems to give a good indication within 1 to 2 hours of market open to tell if volume is going to flow in and out of the market in line with a good day trading day, or just continuously come in and trend the market, or continually leave the market, leaving just algorithms / market makers playing it back and for ticks. I can use this to figure how aggressive I should or should not be.

(from Jigsaw again) The other tool I think I want to keep an eye on is the Cumulative Delta - the CD might be a little too slow for scalping purposes as it will change trend as the conditions are occurring that I want to make a few ticks off. But If the CD is trending strongly I probably should scalp only in the direction it is trending. The only other thing I can account for is if the CD is positive or negative - but this would probably eliminate half of the ideal trades.

So I need to focus on looking for the big 3 of order flow coming together - though at any price level or do I define levels I will only take interest in the action? The levels others have recommended and I still think worth noting are simple:

Today's High
Today's Low
Today's 50% - i think so
Yesterday's High
Yesterday's Low
Yesterday's 50% - i think so
Yesterday's Close
Today's Open
Obvious steps in the profile as demonstrated well in the No BS material
Other obvious levels off the daily chart that prices have have found support resistance (with sufficient volume behavior?)

I need to decide then if I only take trades at these levels - which direction to trade through them etc - but be careful to that I don't find myself focusing more on price levels then on order flow (darn it).

My current view accounting for all this is that I will have a bit of trust that my order flow skills are developing with time, and to use them as a trigger within 2 ticks of the above levels. So - zone in as the market moves to the levels in particular, and use the three observable order flow characteristics as input for my developing skill of knowing what to do. Sounds pretty vague but that is all I got.

Next up I plan on adding Volume Profile to the mix, but I want to be able to make the ticks consistently using pure order flow first at this stage.

My current hurdle is being too trigger shy. My current plan to overcome this is to take all trades at the above levels that I even think have some order flow signal. Didn't work out so well last night but will try again tonight:


Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to grahamg for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #51 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received



Well trading live again - got in there and started off down 3 ticks. Got the courage to enter in again and made it back and then another two. After this it really seemed to seasaw back and forth. Not sure how to make money in that or if it is even worth it.

Relative Volume which I try to use shows that participants have just been continuously exiting the market.

This tool is an indicator from the Jigsaw Trading guy - that compares the days accumulated volume relative to the previous 30 days on a per bar basis. The slope down is a sign that the action just isn't there.



I was primed to earn a Farrai today but can't make it happen without the market being in play. Maybe the US session will liven up as the Italian Election results come in...?

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #52 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Two days in a row where I reached my max drawdown for the day. Today's trade I hope to never do again. I experienced what it is like to hold onto a loser. The range of the Bobl was only 12 ticks - I held onto my fail safe stop of 6 ticks and felt every single painful second of it. Reason I held on? Because I shouldn't have taken the trade in the first place. Was following the BUND tick by tick, and felt I was getting in rhythm with it, but couldn't pinpoint an entry point. It would just sway one way, and then the other. SO.. after 90 minutes without a trade, something remarkable happened. I felt that the Bund was about to go hell for leather up, moved the mouse over and hit the Offer on the BOBL which had been in a 2 tick range for god knows how long. Bobl immediately went one tick down, so two ticks against my entry. I then looked at the Bobl volume profile and thought I could have justified it if I lent on the step in the profile one tick below my entry. So in the interest in doing everything consistently wrong, I pretended that my entry had been one tick lower, then watched it go another tick down... after which it got far to painful to watch - so I switched my focus back over to the Bund hoping it would come good on its promise to me haha. It ticked back and forth in a three tick range. Bobl barely traded and went down another tick. So FOUR ticks against me. But now the Bund really looked like it would take off back to new highs and the Bobl in good conscience would follow. It didn't.. it went down another tick then another. Stopped me out. Then went up for the next 2 hours. I tried another entry but lost patience and had to walk away from the screen for a while.

I did swallow my pride and place 2 good looking trades - which I could have taken a total of 6 ticks on. However, was stuck in 'make it back' mind frame and exited when it came back on me for breakeven.

The day before wasn't as bad but stopped trading at 6 ticks down. Both trades I should have managed better and would have been a good day - here was my first trade: Trade Feb 26 - Graham83's library

Now I am starting to get the strong desire to switch it up and find a new style - switch to position day trading off Volume Profile like a lot of the guys are doing. This line of thought led me to have a good solid look at my trading and life in general. Pretty much I am allowing a 6 month window from now, fulltime to make trading work for me (remember I've been trying for 3 years already). After that I have to seriously reconsider making a living from Engineering fulltime as I will soon have a wedding to pay for.. and more than likely if I want to keep my wonderful lady a family. These are currently neutral future events, and aren't effecting my trading money management psychology at present, but in 6 months + realistically they will start being a factor I seriously have to consider. This doesn't mean I have to make squillions in 6 months - but if I can make 1 to 2k a week then my pursuit of trading can continue. SO any mentorship, advice, (donations ?) will be warmly welcomed haha Maybe this paragraph adds a touch of REAL to how serious I am about trading... its not just a challenging goal.

Might replay yesterday and see what I could have made of it.

BTW - I am well aware that my original goal WAS to switch it up. But I am taking some advice I read that you gotta stick with a style for at least 3 months.. more than likely 6. I am now two months into Order Flow Scalping.

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to grahamg for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #53 (permalink)
London
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: Bund
 
Posts: 1 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 16 given, 1 received

Might just be me but I find the Bobl can be a tricky one to scalp, don't get me wrong im not saying the Bund is easier but I think you can get more bang for you buck with the Bund. I see a setup where im going to go long and the Bund confirms it, the Bobl bid is weak so I sit on the bid trying to get some edge.... 10th in the queue nothing done and it bounces 2 or 3 ticks Argghhhh! Or I lift the offer to get long it goes bid with nothing traded and im sat there again nothing filled or you do get filled, the Bund rallies 10 ticks and the Bobl just sits still, Bund then comes back and you end up scratching. I find the same when you are in a winner and you try to get out, the Bobl can just slip away... Its a strange creature that sometimes leads, sometimes follows and other times has a mind of its own, I think the reason is its used a lot for spreading/hedging. I find using the cvd on Jigsaw summary tape can be useful when thinking about a trade it helps to show what the big money is doing if both Bund and Bobl cvd going up a long is more promising at times you will see Bund cvd going up and Bobl going down obv vice versa this im sure is spread action going on which can make it harder to read. Problem is a 6 tick daily stop could be quite tight for the Bund..

May not of been any help but just thought I would share my thoughts...

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to mjs1 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #54 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

@mjs1

Thanks for the observation. Your description of the Bobl is in line with what I see / experience whenever I place a trade on it. I started out with Sim on the Bobl and quickly switched to Bund because it was doing all the moving, and the Bobl would suddenly jump to get in line with Bund if it got too far behind, or just stay there til the Bund bounced back to where it started. Probably relationships that some folk can learn very well and trade off. I personally like to look for 'flow' - so Bund is a lot friendlier for this. However I certainly need to hone my skills on its reversal points - because lately it doesn't seem to battle it out at a price so much tipping you off that the money is supporting it - just for instance, sellers drying up on the way down, one buy order of a few hundred turns it around.

I have seen two or three hectic days in the Bund where the Bobl trades smoothly and is my only option (other than Schatz) to trade as Bund too fast. On those days Bobl traded a lot like the Bund usually does.

Probably do need to give myself more drawdown than 6 ticks.. good point.

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #55 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Thanks to some good responses... I have some more questions thoughts.

Correct me if I am wrong - but trading is just a skill like anything else. A difficult one, but I am trying to think of it, like playing golf, or learning to surf. I have been trying to learn to surf for 3 months now. I can stand up, once in 5 attempts, and properly ride a wave every third or so time I stand up. I have only been doing it about twice a week so not even as quick a learning curve as trading. However there are set components to surfing that you must practice and nail until you can put them all together and ride out a wave.
- Getting on the right wave
- Position on the board
- Getting on your feet etc...
- Staying on your feet
- Directing the board

Why should scalping be any different. The No BS and Jigsaw material's give the components for profitable trades. Why can't anyone dedicated enough master these components, and then put them together to make a living out of trading? Is it purely a matter of effort / dedication? I think it should be, but I haven't made it yet. The hardest part as of late is getting on the right wave (trading) as Bund is not giving clear clues as to direction to my eyes.

If you have made it to a point you are confident to scalp for profits consistently - do you agree with me?

In regards to switching up trading styles - it is obvious that unless you stick with it for long enough for the skill components to become second nature, then you have no chance of progressing, and becoming proficient in a method. For that reason I am sticking with the pure order flow scalping unless someone can give me a good enough counter argument.

After I can scalp, is it a normal trading progression to -

1. Be able to read order flow well enough to consistently scalp for profits THEN
2. Learn Volume Profiling techniques for position day trading
3. Use scalping skills to get set for a larger move using volume profiling / price action?

The other thing that has been bugging me is how do you put order flow scalping into the ever so talked about 'Trading Plan'. My Plan is - look for places where bigger traders are tipping their hand and jump on board. Should my plan be more defined than that? Does anyone have a list of plays they look for to scalp off? The FT71 guy gives examples of scalping off the DOM - BUT uses levels for fading, moving average for getting on pullbacks in trend etc. Chart based indicators to tell when to scalp - but this is against the No BS way.

With my plan there are a few guidelines that I have picked up from others and watching the Bund that can help along the way:

- Levels can be areas to look for signs of big traders tipping their hand
- Don't fade the first push to highs / lows in the Bund as they usually move it past twice (thanks Oleg)
- Don't jump in front of the train (trend)
- Use Cumulative Delta to get the overall direction of buying / selling of big players and scalp in that direction
- Compare volume to previous days for the type of action to expect and possibly not scalp if volume dries up continually

Any other good ones to add to this?

Am I thinking too much about this and should be just firing away ?? Correcting path as I go...?

One exercise I have been pondering doing, but I am too scared to try live with one lots is - take a trade every time I have that initial opinion on direction.. like 'this is going to reverse here'... or 'buyers just got the upper hand'.. without any further justification in the DOM action. Wonder how expensive a session that would be?!? Is it worth doing anyway? We probably all start trading with someone else's trading filters and resist taking the ones our internal dialogue says to take... but is that a lesson that needs to be learnt? I seem to be accumulating a lot of 'What if I just took that one.." scenarios

Enough rambling. Bund was dead yesterday and in the 7 hours I was watching it took no trades, thus all the 'thoughts' in this post.

I look forward to anyone's responses / feedback.

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to grahamg for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #56 (permalink)
Tulsa OK
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader/Jigsaw Tools
Broker: Deep Discount Trading/TT
Trading: ZN, ZB
 
Posts: 162 since Jul 2009
Thanks: 138 given, 207 received


grahamg View Post
Thanks to some good responses... I have some more questions thoughts.

Correct me if I am wrong - but trading is just a skill like anything else. A difficult one, but I am trying to think of it, like playing golf, or learning to surf. I have been trying to learn to surf for 3 months now. I can stand up, once in 5 attempts, and properly ride a wave every third or so time I stand up. I have only been doing it about twice a week so not even as quick a learning curve as trading. However there are set components to surfing that you must practice and nail until you can put them all together and ride out a wave.
- Getting on the right wave
- Position on the board
- Getting on your feet etc...
- Staying on your feet
- Directing the board

Why should scalping be any different. The No BS and Jigsaw material's give the components for profitable trades. Why can't anyone dedicated enough master these components, and then put them together to make a living out of trading? Is it purely a matter of effort / dedication? I think it should be, but I haven't made it yet. The hardest part as of late is getting on the right wave (trading) as Bund is not giving clear clues as to direction to my eyes.

If you have made it to a point you are confident to scalp for profits consistently - do you agree with me?

In regards to switching up trading styles - it is obvious that unless you stick with it for long enough for the skill components to become second nature, then you have no chance of progressing, and becoming proficient in a method. For that reason I am sticking with the pure order flow scalping unless someone can give me a good enough counter argument.

After I can scalp, is it a normal trading progression to -

1. Be able to read order flow well enough to consistently scalp for profits THEN
2. Learn Volume Profiling techniques for position day trading
3. Use scalping skills to get set for a larger move using volume profiling / price action?

The other thing that has been bugging me is how do you put order flow scalping into the ever so talked about 'Trading Plan'. My Plan is - look for places where bigger traders are tipping their hand and jump on board. Should my plan be more defined than that? Does anyone have a list of plays they look for to scalp off? The FT71 guy gives examples of scalping off the DOM - BUT uses levels for fading, moving average for getting on pullbacks in trend etc. Chart based indicators to tell when to scalp - but this is against the No BS way.

With my plan there are a few guidelines that I have picked up from others and watching the Bund that can help along the way:

- Levels can be areas to look for signs of big traders tipping their hand
- Don't fade the first push to highs / lows in the Bund as they usually move it past twice (thanks Oleg)
- Don't jump in front of the train (trend)
- Use Cumulative Delta to get the overall direction of buying / selling of big players and scalp in that direction
- Compare volume to previous days for the type of action to expect and possibly not scalp if volume dries up continually

Any other good ones to add to this?

Am I thinking too much about this and should be just firing away ?? Correcting path as I go...?

One exercise I have been pondering doing, but I am too scared to try live with one lots is - take a trade every time I have that initial opinion on direction.. like 'this is going to reverse here'... or 'buyers just got the upper hand'.. without any further justification in the DOM action. Wonder how expensive a session that would be?!? Is it worth doing anyway? We probably all start trading with someone else's trading filters and resist taking the ones our internal dialogue says to take... but is that a lesson that needs to be learnt? I seem to be accumulating a lot of 'What if I just took that one.." scenarios

Enough rambling. Bund was dead yesterday and in the 7 hours I was watching it took no trades, thus all the 'thoughts' in this post.

I look forward to anyone's responses / feedback.

I don't know the answers, but good questions. John has mentioned several times in his webinars now, he is not trying to get people to trade like him, he is just showing us what he has done to be successful. I don't think there is 1 way.

Also, you can't be scared to fail. The path to success is littered with failure. There is no way around that. Don't be afraid to fail on a trade. If you want to try that exercise with one lots, then do it, as long as you can afford to lose the money.

20,000,000
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #57 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Getting philosophical on this - If the market participants stayed the same each day I could at least pre-define what I am looking for as a sequence of events based on certain volume exchanging hands, and use this as my entry and exit criteria. The main complexity comes in then with the ever changing market conditions from one day to the next, one week to the next, one month to the next etc. This means that even if I had the ideal, objective setup to master my trading psychology with, It would not work probably most days because the market structure and participants is dynamic, and either I would 'break' mentally, or break the system I am trying to trade with.. probably break both ways at the same time! But then comes in the probability argument, that as long as the methodology works enough to be your edge in the long run, you can trade systematically. So as according to Mark Douglas, every moment in the markets is unique, so you must trade systematically a method that is profitable over the long run. I won't argue with that - however what if the markets were too dynamic for this to be possible??

I have so far experimented with 2 days trading on the simulator (at 4x speed) with an objective system in the Bund that I thought would work based on what I have seen so far. Fading levels. Within 2 points of Yesterday's high, low, midpoint, close, and Today's high, low or midpoint, or open. Stop at 3 ticks, profit at 6 ticks. I took a bunch of trades, and was profitable about 50% of the time which means I made money on the sim.. but only if I didn't pay commissions. Perhaps this should be my exercise in the live market to get the right mental state at least, even if it is at a cost. This method only works though on range bound days and gets crushed on trending days. I can define which type based on more probabilities, on the relative volume for the day's action. If relative volume (todays accumulated volume relative to the average of the last 30 days) is decreasing - its going to be range bound-ish. If relative volume is increasing constantly - trending. If relative volume is flat (average) - range boundish. .. etc. So some rules to start trying to define my setups are emerging.

I am currently tossing up which would be the better exercise to pay for in the markets - the above paragraph, OR taking EVERY discretionary trade based on my skill in reading the market order flow, without hesitation. That way if I don't make money, I am not reading market order flow correctly and can improve on that skill. Simple eh? This probably sounds ludicrous to the systems orientated trader. There is probably no right way, just 'your' way.

As always, trying to turn everything into Mark Douglas speak - I can see that I should first be able to execute trades like I am a robot, to get the right mental state. Then move onto discretionary. If this is the only way to go about it then I will probably need to cash up some more first. I suppose I am trying to bypass that expense by taking John Grady's word for it that prop style trading is a skill that can be learned with enough experience and hard knock lessons, which results in expense again. Probably a slower death. I am unsure which is more valuable. I know I can execute a system flawlessly in the markets even if it loses me money. This is because I disassociate from the trading and results, which sort of defeats the purpose of the lesson.

If someone was to give me an objective system to execute that works I would prefer that, as I could then rule out the flaws if I had developed my own system, that wasn't making money. However this systematic like trading would probably give me smaller returns, which once again, I would disassociate from, as that is not interesting enough. So perhaps with my personality - I probably need to go through the school of hard knocks. Which probably means enough rambling on, this week I need to take some trades and correct my path along the way.

And thanks to the obvious pointing out from a friend - my journal so far has involved a lot of trading psychology obstacles. The original idea was that I should find a profitable trading methodology before trying to fix my head. Finding that profitable trading methodology has its own mental challenges and obstacles to overcome in its own right, where knowledge of trading psychology comes in handy. Its all one big mess though really. I am not sure I believe there is a purely objective trading methodology out there. Discretion has to come into it one way or another. Even the systems traders have to decide when to turn off their systems!

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to grahamg for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #58 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

I created this in the hope of starting an archive of No BS style scalping trades in the DOM. For those slow rainy days when you just can't watch any more JG webinar recordings and want to see someone pulling the Bund to pieces or smashing up the S&P instead.. its a co-author blog so if anyone is interested check out the first post describing what the goal is and instructions - and give me your email so i can add you as coauthor. No agenda here other than to enhance scalping skills by watching others trade.

Scalpers Anon Video Posts

The goal is to attract and bounce off similar traders, which is why its separate from any forum.. so as to keep the comments closely relevant to this particular style of trading.

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #59 (permalink)
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

Hi Graham,

Are you still day trading ASX? I am in Melbourne. Doing short to medium term trading (beginners...) outside my full-time job.. (I write my trading journal here as well)
I have been following SMB for a little while now (read the book as well.) Would be interested in hearing your thoughts/experience on trading ASX.

Cheers,
Felix

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #60 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

@FELIX

I am still tied up with learning to scalp the futures markets at this point. Thus it is approaching 12.30am in Goldie and I am still staring at the DOM since 5pm. Not much cracking today. After reading One Good Trade I started this journal and was juiced for trading ASX in a similar fashion but there is one big problem for me. Commissions are huge for retail trading Aussie stocks and the margin is extraordinary compared to trading futures... so my hands are kind of tied unless I find a few100k to add to my trading account. From my research - Interactive Brokers are a good deal when it comes to aussie stocks. I was going to do it with CFDs but after watching the 'real' tape as of late, I am not willing to give up the spread and put up with the sneaky slippage that always seems to occur with CFDs.

'Play Book' by Bella also comes out this month which will be a worthy read if you are going down that line I think. I think it would complete the picture of One Good Trade - which gives enough insight as to how they are trading, along with SMB university blogs etc.. just need the setups to master and away you go.

Will keep an eye on how you're going on your journal, good luck.

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #61 (permalink)
Sunnyvale, CA
 
 
Posts: 171 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 8 given, 105 received


grahamg View Post

Correct me if I am wrong - but trading is just a skill like anything else.

Actually, not really. In fact it's a skill quite in "contrary" to normal "job type skills". The skills you need for trading are things that don't work real well in other types of jobs. For example in most jobs there is a expected and consistent outcome for the task you do: if you are a bookkeeper and you calculate the payroll, the result is the paychecks for the employees. You get the same results week after week.

In trading, though, you are dealing with probabilities and calculated risks. One week is not the same as the next. Things are unpredictable.


Quoting 
Why should scalping be any different.

Because of the high degree of unpredictability in prices of an asset.


Quoting 
The No BS and Jigsaw material's give the components for profitable trades. Why can't anyone dedicated enough master these components, and then put them together to make a living out of trading? Is it purely a matter of effort / dedication?

It is not so much that, as the proper attitude and understanding of what you're doing. I have my own very strong opinion about what these ought to be, but I won't get into it here, other than to say that's strictly a probability-based business and at the core of it is price behavior.


Quoting 
I think it should be, but I haven't made it yet. The hardest part as of late is getting on the right wave (trading) as Bund is not giving clear clues as to direction to my eyes.

I can only state my own approach. I look only at price behavior, and as far as that goes, only a small handful of general, simple patterns, and combine that with risk management and knowing that you are doing nothing more than playing the odds. The results of any single trade mean little in the overall outcome.


Quoting 
If you have made it to a point you are confident to scalp for profits consistently - do you agree with me?

I have a consistent 27% net ROI and have been doing it for a long time. If it were me, I wouldn't try to scalp somebody else's system. Again, I can only tell you my own approach. I keep things as simple as possible. I play probabilities. I don't ever have any expectation about any particular trade working out. I don't try to predict prices. I look at the general picture. I don't get hung up on little details like defining fixed-distance stop losses because those type of things dont' matter. What matters is price behavior which does not adhere to any "fixed" sort of "anything," other than a few very general patterns.

Learn these few general patterns. Then observe the price of your commodity on the ticker (tape) so you know how to recognize them. The patterns are very simple and they occur over and over again:
  • breakouts
  • retracements
  • congestion

I personally never use any volume. I've never seen it to matter in oil futures, except in rare cases when a very large breakout is brewing. (the biggest example I've seen of this was back in 2008 when oil went above $85 for the first time. Buying volume in the minutes leading up to the breakout was immense. There were a steady stream of 2000 lot orders as the price was preparing for the breakout)


Quoting 
My Plan is - look for places where bigger traders are tipping their hand and jump on board.

This is evident in the price behavior. Learn to read the tape. You don't need anything else.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to mwtzzz for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #62 (permalink)
Sunnyvale, CA
 
 
Posts: 171 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 8 given, 105 received

by the way, i should add that sometimes it is in your best interest to not be on the side of the big players. funds often go short index futures to hedge their holdings in the stock market. it is not necessarily a good idea to be on the side of what they are doing, because they are not placing bets on future prices in the commodity and their actions may only have a temporary effect on the market.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #63 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Chicago Illinois USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Broker: IB, ToS
Trading: /ES, US Equities/Options
 
wldman's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,341 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 1,978 given, 8,830 received

"they" may be opening transactions that you regret missing.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #64 (permalink)
Sunnyvale, CA
 
 
Posts: 171 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 8 given, 105 received


wldman View Post
"they" may be opening transactions that you regret missing.

Yeah but how are you going to know? Are you comfortable placing a blind bet? The fund managers may be bullish on stocks, but if you only look at their actions in the futures market you would mistakenly believe they are bearish.

The way I look at it is that the price action tells all. It doesn't matter who's doign what, or why. If I start trying to figure out what the different players are doing, it's going to get confusing very quickly and I don't need to anyway, because what they do is reflected in the price.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #65 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Chicago Illinois USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Broker: IB, ToS
Trading: /ES, US Equities/Options
 
wldman's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,341 since Aug 2011
Thanks: 1,978 given, 8,830 received

going to know with a reasonable certainty that can be justifiably relied on. Agreed.

Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #66 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Hi @mwtzz, thanks for your answers to the big questions.

In this style of trading - the process of following size is not so much about looking for one order, which more than likely is someone hedging a position or spreading - its a flow of capital coming into the market. In my limited experience and from what has been pointed out by DionysusToast in his Topstep videos, the increase in volume occurs, if the Bunds are going down for instance, as a combination of the drying up of sellers, an increase in absorption of sellers, and then buyers actively hitting the offers. You can sense it happening but the hard part is acting on that sense. The degree of the transition of buyers coming into the market in this example determines the size of the predictable bounce afterwards. Observing the process and measuring the degree of it occurring I am having a bit of faith is an intuitive skill that comes with experience.

It is quite obvious seeing a block order come in to hedge or spread another market. Maybe only a few hundred are trading, then a 4000 block trade occurs against the trend and barely moves it a tick.

In regards to the skill - I get what you are saying in that we are supposed to be treating it as a game of probabilities. Just like the Mark Douglas approach he talks about in Trading In The Zone. With scalping however I get the feeling that the game is played with higher expectancy than a more mechanical / setup approach. ie You scalp to be right way more than you are wrong, and though you should try to ride a move for a higher Risk Reward, you must get out at first sign of change in market participants. If you need to be right say on 80% of your trades, then it tends to be more like a skill don't you think? You have an expected outcome of being profitable from most of your actions. Just a thought.

Price action is something I want to look into, but am caught in the conflict of moving on from a technique already and pursue something else.. or seeing if I can stick it out long enough to trade by osmosis of the one market. You mention the tape (ticker).. are you talking about just time and sales or the DOM? Since you have it broken down so simply into those three setups reckon you could capture some video of examples of what you're seeing in the tape each when you take a trade? Would be very educational!

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #67 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Last week I couldn't make even a tick in paper profits. Replaying my trades showed I was getting excited in the right areas -just getting shaken out - March 5 - Bund Trade - Graham83's library

I am having the realisation that this takes some time. Getting to know the market, learning from trading mistakes, learning my own capabilities etc. As long as I keep my losses small and don't destroy myself hopefully I will bounce back one of these days. It feels like I can shout out what the Bund is going to do next short term, and be right more than wrong - however the bids and offers aren't doing anything exciting enough for me to draw that line in the sand where I can calculate quickly a risk reward play. ie I just know its gone down about enough with enough breaks of the low by a few ticks, the selling pressure definitely decreased, no numbers coming out, and that it will go back up to test the higher volume areas - BUT have no step in the profile to lean on or big bid to get in front of. Probably just need to add a play for this scenario and see how it goes.

So since it takes time I should probably just relax a little - going to watch some of the FT71 material for future reference in case I do follow my original plan on trying different tactics. I think day trading is definitely for me, and I like DOM element, but who knows if in the end scalping just isn't for me. Probably too early to tell. I have a full day before the Bund even opens, and I want to be doing something that is progressive for my trading. Market Replay on SIM to fill the time and practice just seems like a joke compared to trading the one lots so is not how I want to spend my days.

I also seem to have gotten over my jitters to some extent, accepting more the risk involved in trading Bunds. One wise dog told me on Skype that you have to feel the pain before you can trade like this.. maybe I reached that threshold? Though only the relevant threshold to my small-time one lot trading. You probably have to feel the pain when you switch to 2 lots, then 4 lots. What I mean is there is a bit more detachment from placing a trade - akin to that 'every moment is unique' trading philosophy, so why stress over the action of one trade. Anyway maybe a good hurdle to cross - though the markets have been quiet so I could be delusional.

Happy trading.

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to grahamg for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #68 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Felt a bit more cool calm and collected today. An odd feeling trading where I was more accepting of the risk. Detached from it in a sense after such a string of non-profitable trades. Today Bund was very slow in the first two hours, with a tonne of numbers coming out later in the day including the big one - Rates. I managed to pick two successful scalps iin the slow action, which has me feeling a bit more confident. I understand that to the observer it would look like pure luck but there is a lot of personal control that goes into making these trades.. and yes.. even still luck is probably the main contributor

Scalpers Anon Video Posts: March 7 - Scalps In Slow Bund GG

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to grahamg for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #69 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Friday and Monday I did not get filled on any trades. Unemployment rocked the Bund for a while but I watched on only, late into the night. Monday was dead as. Tuesday was starting out that way but a few bursts gave some opportunities. I was pretty good at entering for some of these opportunities and not so good at exiting.

I was aware of entering without thinking and exiting because of thinking. With this combination I was really quick getting into intuitive feeling trades, then psyched myself out of staying with them. The last trade this is especially the case where I got a good fill for a 'free' look at the highs. Then as soon as the market filled me and went straight up to test the highs I calmly exited happy with my 3 ticks.. instead of the 10 ticks that would have been available to me 30 seconds later. RIght idea, bad execution. I am going to try and continue to get in using less thinking like this - my rational logical mind really does a bad job at justifying taking trades, or at least does a very slow job at it.

Heres a recap of the trading day:

March 12 - Graham83's library

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #70 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received



Its a deceptive picture as I didn't trade for half the days as just couldn't get a read on the order flow. Add to that the very small profits I did lock in. BUT its the most momentum I have had towards consistent profits yet given that is 2 weeks in a row I have ended up positive.



This picture shows relative volume, which compares the accumulated volume of each day to the average of the previous 60 days (in this chart) upto the time of the relevant bar. Something I am finding immensely helpful as a freebie from Jigsaw Trading. What this picture shows is that volume has continually been falling out of the Bund this past few weeks, highlighted by the red arrows. The blue rectangle shows what the relative volume should look like on a good day trading day. With volume continually dropping out of the market, there are less decisive players willing to defend prices at their preferred level, which means less obvious waves in the order flow essentially.. to me anyway. When the relative volume slope increases is where the opportunities lie if I'm quick enough. Even if its in the negative and starts to slope upwards that means above average volume entering in the market. Days when the relative volume is in the positive means that big players are 'playing', and their footprint can be found in the DOM in theory. I am hypothesizing that these big players haven't been gaming the past 2 weeks to the same extent. Not that I'm and expert on such matters yet.

So the question is what to do when it slows down like this. My opinion is that the Bunds, and bonds in general, are at a critical juncture in history being at or near their all time highs. Either the range of the last year or two will continue, or a breakout to new highs will occur, or the commonly predicted bond bear market will ensue soon enough. At such a juncture I guess it is pretty normal for everyone to be less active, or less convicted in their trading until a direction is established. The fact that there is an obvious drop out in the relative volume to me says that this IS a juncture, and it will resolve one way or another soon enough. I think trying a new technique, or switching products is a bad idea in my development stage as I will probably then miss the action in the Bund when it returns, or not be as prepared for it. SO just going to be patient, bunds like everything have their ON time, and OFF time. Hopefully this week they get cracking and my eye improves for spotting opportunities either way.

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #71 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received



Well I met my goal of making money in March as a one lot warrior. This chart is my cumulative profit and doesn't take into account my commissions. For those interested, with commissions I broke even but according to Steenbarger if you can trade well enough to cover costs that is one of the stages of expertise, so I will take it.

I took 34 Trades in the 14 trading days I placed trades. I think there was one or two in there that I did not get filled on a trade. So lets say 17 trading days I was watching the DOM for at least 3 focused hours. That is about 50 hours of trading time. I could easily double that as I would have the DOM up for another 3 hours on average watching it half hazardly in case any blatant opportunities presented themselves, though usually the action I like has died off in the first three hours if it were to occur at all.

34 trades is not a lot then. But I can honestly say I was poised to take as many as I could justify clicking the mouse for from my perspective, within that 3 hour focused window per day. Most of the action in March seemed a lot slower than average if you were to compare the accumulative volume to previous months. This last week gone presented the most opportunity but I was the least focused, being a bit sick and exhausted from a few days away on business. Wednesday and Thursday alone I felt I could have taken double digits away each day if I had acted on my instincts. I even bought bottom tick on Wednesday would you believe, and settled for one tick when it didn't move up within a few minutes haha. Whoops.

Its a weird sensation though, as if these trades were taken mechanically I would probably be high fiving myself, after having a good profitable sample set of trades. My experience is no where near that, as I feel that though I might very well be turning the corner in my trading, I could just as easily have had a round of luck, and an 8 tick loser could be just around the corner putting me back in the red. But still a sample set is a sample set - that 8 tick loser could have occurred anytime in the month, and I even started down for the first 2 days and ended up, so all in all, I'll take the result as a good indication that my discretionary trading in the Bund has potential.

I have now watched the Bund and associated products in the Jigsaw DOM for a few hours pretty much every trading day since January 7. I still do not fully trust my intuition, and that seems to be my biggest weakness at present. The more internal dialogue / thinking that goes on at the moment I am 'feeling' like taking a trade, the more I hesitate and either don't take the trade, or balls the trade up as it takes off, or miss that trade and take a stupid one in its place out of fear of missing out. It seems I would be much better just taking the trades instead of waiting for that microsecond more bit of information. Just take the trade and get out if it then ends up looking wrong, which from experience is not that common if I am playing in the right areas at steps in the profile etc. I can say with certainty that I feel I could have taken many many more ticks out of the market than I did this month, and that is my plan for April.

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to grahamg for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #72 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Scalpers Anon Video Posts

I made a video of my first good trade/s this month. Been a string of small losses I am afraid. I mainly haven't been able to get a read on the Bund. The daily ranges suggest opportunities, but the ticks behaving differently to what I am used to trading. Could be the all time highs, thickening things up with Stocks and Bonds at or near record territory. Surely somethings exciting is going to play out?

I am toying with the idea of starting to learn a bit of Market Profiling. I have watched the FT71 webinars, and skimmed through Mind Over Markets ie noticed all the technical pictures. Seems a useful framework however I am still committed to scalping over position day trading.

It really is simple - get the edge on a trade in an area they look like supporting the market and some more, and hope like hell it goes on in your favour. Get out if someone smacks it down, or doesn't go anywhere after a few minutes, and definitely don't let 2 or 3 ticks profit turn into a loss. The skill then is constantly monitoring the risk / reward possibilities.. and managing it appropriately. I am only entering this game now after always previously being more concerned with taking small quick profits. I justified it for confidence reasons, but its obviously that resourceful mindset at play.

April I am focusing on hitting in at market if a move looks imminent and on the verge of leaving me behind - instead of being tight and waiting for a limit fill. Also managing trades instead of my take a quick profit flaw It helps me to relax a bit more in a trade to focus on where I will get out if the market turns against me - but this is not the right mindset - should be focusing on the current action and where it can potentially go. Much easier to focus on the known than the unknown but thus is trading.

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #73 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Trading: Emini Futures
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 49,758 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,301 given, 97,527 received


grahamg View Post
however I am still committed to scalping over position day trading.

Why?

Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #74 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received


Big Mike View Post
Why?

Mike

Good question. Feels like I haven't given it enough time to make it work just yet. Though the urge is certainly there to try something else - can't say I have come across any argument anywhere as to why position day trade over scalping. Is it much easier? Would be more time consuming... Is it more profitable?

No BS is what got me hooked after researching what some prop shops are doing. The prop shop I was looking into has No BS as prerequisite material.

I get the feeling that market profile is the pro's framework for position day trading. Price Action another option. Pros and Cons for each I suppose. I guess thats where mentorship comes in which is hard to come by if you're going at it alone without paying big $$$ for.

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #75 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Swing Trader
Data Scientist & DevOps
Manta, Ecuador
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Trading: Emini Futures
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 49,758 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 32,301 given, 97,527 received

Most everyone that I would consider a good trader will tell you scalping is much harder than day trading.

Most people on futures.io (formerly BMT) fall victim to scalping because they believe it lowers their risk, which is mostly untrue.

There is a good discussion here:


In the end, if you are profitable then you don't need anyone else to tell you what to do. If you are unprofitable, I would encourage you to not fall into the scalping mentality.

I should warn you, I am not a scalper.

Mike

We're here to help -- just ask

For the best trading education, watch our webinars
Searching for trading reviews? Review this list

Follow us on Twitter, YouTube, and Facebook

Support our community as an Elite Member:
https://futures.io/elite/
Follow me on Twitter Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #76 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received


Big Mike View Post
Most everyone that I would consider a good trader will tell you scalping is much harder than day trading.

Most people on futures.io (formerly BMT) fall victim to scalping because they believe it lowers their risk, which is mostly untrue.

There is a good discussion here:


..
Mike

Thanks Big Mike. I am not one to worry about limiting risk so much.. other than then need to do it to come out on top. The idea of trading size for smaller moves has me thinking I can trade a few hours a day of maximum focus as my trading plan instead of watching a full session for day positions. I would have to be nocturnal to pull that off here in Oz.

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #77 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,054 given, 14,504 received


grahamg View Post
Good question. Feels like I haven't given it enough time to make it work just yet. Though the urge is certainly there to try something else - can't say I have come across any argument anywhere as to why position day trade over scalping. Is it much easier? Would be more time consuming... Is it more profitable?

There are numerous arguments for and against, but briefly, for position day trading over scalping:

1) Focus required for both, but scalping for ticks requires extreme focus on minutiae, and can be very wearisome and stressful (just as day trading is more stressful than longer term position trading!)
2) Commissions and spread are a huge percentage of overall cost for scalping and can turn a gross profit into a net breakeven/loss when it's all said and done
3) see #2

I also tended to gravitate towards scalping when I first began to trade futures, and there's nothing inherently bad about it, it's just a very tough game, largely because of #2 above. I often use my scalping tendencies to pinpoint good entry points for larger swings, but I have to find a balance so that I don't get too zoomed in sometimes.


grahamg View Post
No BS is what got me hooked after researching what some prop shops are doing. The prop shop I was looking into has No BS as prerequisite material.

Can you share the results of some of your research? I'd be interested in this if you can briefly detail your findings and overall conclusions.

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #78 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received


josh View Post

Can you share the results of some of your research? I'd be interested in this if you can briefly detail your findings and overall conclusions.

At the bottom of the page here:

Get Started in Proprietary Trading - Training - Propex Derivatives - World Leaders in Proprietary Trading. Trader Training. Trade Stock Markets. Sydney, Gold Coast and Singapore.

A friend is in their inhouse training right now and sounds like they are manually spreading treasuries, and spreading is not in the No BS stuff. As JG says - 'You're limiting your winners' - well pretty sure he said that.

Am sure a bunch of prop firms trade in a bunch of different ways. Think I heard that scalpers don't get hired in Prop Shops in the US.

Brings me to a major point actually - what is scalping?

IMO - The No BS stuff is not blind scalping, clicking away relying purely on your statistical edge. You get in where you perceive size is trading, and then try hold on until you see size trading again in the opposite direction.. ideally. I have seen JG hold onto trades for half an hour. If a smooth trend presists after your entry you would hold on for many ticks. No limiting to time in the market, or price moves, its all about size trading tipping you to a change in price action. Also obviously depends on the market action for the day whether its grinding or momentum is happening.

In a sense the way the No BS stuff uses the volume profile, a quality Scalp would be similar to a volume profile day trader entering then exiting at their first target - with smooth trend between those two points. Just no scaling in or out. Position trading maybe refers more to scaling in and out for the day session. No BS scalping would enter where size is trading, exit where size is trading. If the move isn't over then the same indications could set you up for another 'scalp'.

I have seen Scalping courses / videos where the trader has a dig purely on price action, or interaction of price with some indicator, and no trade management. Scalping is not just scalping I would love to scalp 20 ticks in the Bund even if it meant holding for an hour. Can I call that scalping?

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to grahamg for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #79 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

I traded like an absolute chomp yesterday and payed the consequences for it. Thinking back to the day before I had already lost site of the goal of trading size with a down day. Instead of closely monitoring for size I think I have been trading the profile only with overconfidence, thinking that I know best what Bund is going to do next. I took trades at extremes in the profile, playing breakouts etc, without really seeing size in my favor first. 10 ticks down, and a massive downward sloping P&L this month has me ready to jump ship and take up another form of trading.



But I won't. Going to ease off this evening and watch the split profile more carefully in the DOM before taking any trades. I can sense a bit of spiraling into trader oblivion with so much effort and increasing losses to show. The joy of trading.

I am tempted to put a video up to show what not to do... anyway today is another day. Just venting and got an hour or so to get myself emotionally pumped to make some ticks today!

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #80 (permalink)
Site Sponsor

Web: Jigsaw Trading
AMA: Ask Me Anything
Webinars: Jigsaw Trading Webinars
Elite offer: Click here
 
 
Jigsaw Trading's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,977 since Nov 2010
Thanks: 823 given, 10,312 received


grahamg View Post
At the bottom of the page here:

Get Started in Proprietary Trading - Training - Propex Derivatives - World Leaders in Proprietary Trading. Trader Training. Trade Stock Markets. Sydney, Gold Coast and Singapore.

A friend is in their inhouse training right now and sounds like they are manually spreading treasuries, and spreading is not in the No BS stuff. As JG says - 'You're limiting your winners' - well pretty sure he said that.

Funny you mention propex. I'm in Singapore right now.

Yesterday afternoon, I had coffee with 4 of their traders - a great bunch they were, very young and very focused.

Today I had lunch with someone that used to be there and left to do his own thing. A mutual friend I think!

If you have any questions about the products or services provided, please send me a Private Message or use the futures.io "Ask Me Anything" thread
Visit my futures io Trade Journal Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #81 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received


DionysusToast View Post
Funny you mention propex. I'm in Singapore right now.

Yesterday afternoon, I had coffee with 4 of their traders - a great bunch they were, very young and very focused.

Today I had lunch with someone that used to be there and left to do his own thing. A mutual friend I think!

Propex seem to be every aspiring trader's shot at it here in oz. My mate is in the Sydney program at present and seems to be learning a lot he says. There is an office here in Gold Coast that has a nice view of the water.. hmmmmm

BTW you remember I requested you implement in Jigsaw 'Opposite Mode'? That accumulated (P&)L chart I posted just before would look unreal right now in Opposite mode

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #82 (permalink)
 
 
Posts: 2,979 since Jul 2012
Thanks: 1,576 given, 5,896 received


grahamg View Post


Well I met my goal of making money in March as a one lot warrior. This chart is my cumulative profit and doesn't take into account my commissions. For those interested, with commissions I broke even but according to Steenbarger if you can trade well enough to cover costs that is one of the stages of expertise, so I will take it.

Good luck on your trading journey!

I'm not sure why you don't include commission costs in your chart. It is going to lead you to overtrade.

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to kevinkdog for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #83 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received


kevinkdog View Post

I'm not sure why you don't include commission costs in your chart. It is going to lead you to overtrade.

Right now I want to prove to myself my discretionary trading (system) can bank ticks. Once that is apparent I will definitely be focusing on costs incurred and how to increase profits to overcome that, but seems a step beyond where I am at presently, though am sure many will argue that commissions are part of the system and should be dealt with from step 1. In a sense I am by being selective of my discretionary trades as drilled in by No BS material so I'm not racking up commissions (in theory). My March results had me feeling a lot better about my trading because I banked ticks - if I focused too much on the commission then I would not have been as amped to continue on with this style of trading in April having broke even only with all that effort.

Having said that... in my April results thus far this statement of yours is pretty relevant now in hindsight. This month I wanted to get more confident hitting the bids / lifting offers instead of waiting for limit orders to be filled and missing out a lot of potential trades and the number of trades represents this. Unfortunately I ripped through my account with the commissions amplifying my losses More so my losses though. Lucky its only mid April and that could not be a realistic representation of the overall months results which are going to be epic.. just.. epic :hopium:

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #84 (permalink)
PTA, Gauteng
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Self built + Sierra + TWS
Trading: Stocks and Options
 
DarkPoolTrading's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,036 since May 2012
Thanks: 1,244 given, 1,320 received


grahamg View Post
Right now I want to prove to myself my discretionary trading (system) can bank ticks.

Keep in mind that to ignore commissions with scalping is to grossly misrepresent the profitability of your trading. If you were position trading you could discount their importance because you're aiming for larger targets (still not a good idea but just for the sake of this argument). However with scalping, costs are of critical importance and will change your entire equity curve.

Good luck. All the best.

Diversification is the only free lunch
Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to DarkPoolTrading for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #85 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Nice read to start Monday off:

Scalping the order book. Sigh! | Dubai Prop Trader

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #86 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Trading is going swimmingly - I am just yet to make any money.

In a convo with a fellow scalping comrad today I came up with the following recipe for success:

Daily
  • Replay recording of previouds days trading every day
  • Pick out missed trades, Bad trades, Good Trades
  • Market Replay of previous days action for 2 hours trading it on Sim as ideal as possible
  • Before market opens make sure in mindframe to accumulate shitloads of ticks in the market (ie get pumped)
  • Have basic areas of business marked up in DOM that should give trades at minimum
  • From open - Nothing but poised to make money.. No Skype.. No browing internet.. just raw trading

This is what I was doing in Jan / Feb when I was on the SIM. I have now got caught in the emotional tornado trading real money and its time to turn things around. With the Ninja Market Replay, or Simulator, the only difference between making money on SIM and in the market Live is in your head. If I could make 10 ticks a day on SIM with about as many trades in Jan / Feb why can't I do it now? The fills feel exactly the same, the only difference is the thinking.

I am getting back to the basics now in the above list and lets see if things change.

I am greatful to have come across a few comrads in similar situations trying to have a go at it. Its remarkable though that if someone has paved the way before, they have left no mark whatsoever on the internet.. anywhere. Yes there are successful traders out there.. not so sure about ones that started with their small trading account and clicked their way to success from home. Plenty of people trying, fueling the online trading industry, receiving the same advice from wise dogs that are offering advice from perspectives completely different - probably trading as a hobby with retirement funds, have a thriving business supporting them while they trade up their account etc. Hopefully one of us is the first to truly pave the way. Please correct me if I am wrong and someone has, and has shown it. (thus my other thread Dream Maker).

Looking forward to hopefully Finish this weeks trading on a high!

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #87 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,054 given, 14,504 received

@grahamg, I just thought of something to ask you--if you are scalping and using the DOM a lot, why are you using Ninja? Don't get me wrong, it has some good ATM management features like 1-click order modification which I always liked. But there is no volume at price view, which I would think most scalpers would almost need to have. Sure, you have the tape, but that can print so quickly that it's gone before it ever reaches your eye, and having a volume at price (like XTrader, Sierra, TradeStation, T4, etc.) view is pretty crucial IMO for the type of thing you are doing. Plus, NT only has 5 levels in the DOM, whereas 10 are available, if that's important to you. Finally, NT has a 100ms refresh rate across the program, and DOM changes for scalping at that speed are not very fast. The program I use refreshes every 40ms, and this makes a big difference when we are talking about short term order flow recognition (another one I didn't mention that is very fast is RTrader from Rithmic). In short, NT's DOM is limited and certainly not a tool many scalpers would choose--is there a reason you are using it given your style?

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #88 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Columbus, OH
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT 8, TOS
Trading: ES
 
Silvester17's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,578 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 5,062 given, 11,358 received


josh View Post
@grahamg, I just thought of something to ask you--if you are scalping and using the DOM a lot, why are you using Ninja? Don't get me wrong, it has some good ATM management features like 1-click order modification which I always liked. But there is no volume at price view, which I would think most scalpers would almost need to have. Sure, you have the tape, but that can print so quickly that it's gone before it ever reaches your eye, and having a volume at price (like XTrader, Sierra, TradeStation, T4, etc.) view is pretty crucial IMO for the type of thing you are doing. Plus, NT only has 5 levels in the DOM, whereas 10 are available, if that's important to you. Finally, NT has a 100ms refresh rate across the program, and DOM changes for scalping at that speed are not very fast. The program I use refreshes every 40ms, and this makes a big difference when we are talking about short term order flow recognition (another one I didn't mention that is very fast is RTrader from Rithmic). In short, NT's DOM is limited and certainly not a tool many scalpers would choose--is there a reason you are using it given your style?

there're plenty of custom dom's available for nt. including volume at price, 10 levels, changeable refresh and many more features.

more to come

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Silvester17 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #89 (permalink)
Legendary Market Wizard
Georgia, US
 
Experience: None
Platform: SC
Broker: AMP+CQG
Trading: ES, HSI, Nikkei
 
josh's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,466 since Jan 2011
Thanks: 6,054 given, 14,504 received


Silvester17 View Post
there're plenty of custom dom's available for nt. including volume at price, 10 levels, changeable refresh and many more features.

more to come

Good point, I know Peter from jigsaw has some nice tools too. Maybe grahamg is using one of those, but I thought he was using the stock DOM.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to josh for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #90 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received


josh View Post
Good point, I know Peter from jigsaw has some nice tools too. Maybe grahamg is using one of those, but I thought he was using the stock DOM.

I am using Pete's Jigsaw. Well the copy I bought off him, not sure if he'd like me scalping on his one

Check some of the vids on scalpersanonymous.blogspot.com.au for a squiz of my setup. I use the Split Profile currently more than anything.



Thanks for the insight though.

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to grahamg for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #91 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Well I am sitting here on a surf trip without surf wondering what the next step is this week. I have a one on one session booked with the No BS Day Trading dude to review my trade log and some tape recording. Not sure if that helps but getting some expert external feedback seems a good idea.

This week I had one day with my biggest drawdown and biggest draw...up... And most ticks left on the table.. That was a fun day. It was Wednesday and there was plenty of volume flowing into the market. Having not seen a day like this for a while I have been reflecting on the bigger picture. Bunds are at all time highs and have been relatively stagnant in comparison to earlier in the year when they were not. This means a lot of chop and frustration. The key to successful trading I am starting to believe is likely surviving the chop days /weeks/months and hitting it big when volume is high, like on Wednesday. Endless opportunities, plenty of force behind each move, and plenty of signs of moves about to happen,and very easy to feel the momentum. Seems to be a lot of indecision at these highs, and perhaps a hint of a failing auction. Volume should be accelerating but it is not, unless the market trades to the downside. The temptation is to switch to another market but no doubt I will get drawn in to understanding it and miss out on the good times in the Bund when they return. It is not just a matter of looking at the market profile or volume for the day and figuring its a good day... Really need to be attempting to trade it to know if things are optimal.

Bunds are waiting for their next move, and no timeframe is steering the ship right now, though this week showed signs that we should see movement really soon. The all time highs got rejected on Tuesday, are not supported by the broad fixed income market which is still in its multi year range.. Means to me that speculators are waiting for more info, and bots and gamers are trying their best to survive in the meantime. Yes I have been reading some market profile stuff which seems to bring some perspective to the table.

April has been one large down month for my account, but Wednesday was a spike lower. Maybe capitulation in my own account chart?? Thursday and Friday I certainly was in a different state of mind because of it. Not caught up in the hunting as much as usual... hunched over trying desperately to see signs of size having an impact. Wednesday reminded me that the good moves are obvious. Yes there there are games involved, but you really feel the momentum building in your bones. I need to have the patience to wait for that feeling. If at any point I start intellectualising that we are at some key level, the bobl hasn't budged, bund has swept three ticks etc so it must do this or that so I will just see if I can get filled working the bid here.... I am screwed. Probably the greatest indicator I did not get in at a good time is if folks aren't rushing in to buy with me (or sell).. Really... is my one lot going to be the tipping point for this move to take off???

You have to have that support of volume getting in line with your position, which comes from correctly reading the order flow so that you are getting on the wave of volume just as its about to break.

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to grahamg for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #92 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Killing time before market open so figured I'd write something.

I am still trading Bund every day - but under training with someone. Have had to switch out to the SIM for a week or two, which rather than humiliate me has been a great eye opener and confidence builder. While just out catching some warm ocean ... spray in the head.. into a headwind on a skateboard.. i still managed to ponder a thing about the SIM. I highly recommend it as a tool still.. with a catch. If starting out use it for a week and get the hang of what you're going to try to do. Then switch to trading ones lots ASAP so you find out what day trading is really about and what emotional disorders you are yet to discover you have. I think after that it is still not a bad thing to go back and use the SIM on occasion to clear the head and iron out the creases. But not for more than a week or two incase you get hooked. It has really given me a better perspective of what I was trying to achieve on the one lots, and to what is actually achievable without the money issues. Then set a date to get back into the live trading asap so you don't get hooked playing games on the SIM. That is all. Oh and Ninja simulator is not that great compared to getting an X_Trader / X_SIM trial I have found out. The queuing estimation really makes a big difference. Just my two cents if you want to hear it from an aspiring.. wannabe.. gonnagetthere... type trader.

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to grahamg for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #93 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Hi all, for those interested here is an update. I am still on the Bund case every day, and about halfway through my training. As of start of May my training had me go back on the SIM which was frustrating but necessary. Being accountable to someone every day for the trades I make (other than myself) makes the SIM a lot more valuable. I am free to go back onto Jigsaw live anytime but the next phase is to define my actual plan for scalping the bund based on the last 6 weeks experience so I might as well wait until then. The training is fantastic and can be summed up as a dude training me with what he learnt from a particularly good prop shop boss / coach, and from his own experience, via a three phase course (Execution, Discretionary, Pro trading). I am halfway through the discretionary part.

The goal of it all being to get me to take trades that make sense. All the order flow stuff you can learn from No BS is Gold, but its a matter of using it, and taking trades based on logic. Up until starting I was definitely just taking stabs in the dark, which makes it hard to consistently produce good results. I was doing alright at times, but when looking at my fills on a one minute chart, there really was not method to my madness, other than 'I think I saw some size, I think its going to do this'. Now I am slowly breaking bad habits and trading patterns and more and more taking trades based on good reason. This has been VERY hard for me, as 3 years of predictive trading has messed up my beliefs about the market. Its amazing how out of nowhere I will occasionally take a trade based on a technical concept with no real order flow logic involved. The market should stop here... WHY?? Anyway hopefully moving past that now.

Once good trade logic is in place and I am consistently taking trades that make sense, the idea is I can consistently reach my trading goals each day, week, month. Then can take advantage of other stuff as the icing. This is now the start of the 6th month watching the Bund / Bobl / Schatz each day. Things do make a hell of a lot more sense then they did months ago. My trades make a hell of a lot more sense then they did a month ago. Though I am not reaching my goals just yet, but hopefully will start doing so this week. There is the finest line between a profitable trading session and a losing one, which one lapse in concentration and subsequently one bad trade will cause. As a comrad in similar position said on Friday.. "3 feet from gold".

BTW - I am using the XTrader Sim which make it much more realistic regarding fills then Ninja, and honestly have more pressure on me then I had trading live pre-May so should be no issue switching my trading out with 1 lots, then 2,3,4..1000 lots

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 6 users say Thank You to grahamg for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #94 (permalink)
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received

Hey, do you mind sharing where you got a coach?? Thinking of using someone for myself as well.
Thanks,

Felix

Reply With Quote
 
(login for full post details)
  #95 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Tough one.. I got lucky chatting to a guy through an online trading Skype group who offered to help after a few convos. You never know with these things.. i paid a scammer before.. dam

Brainstorming:-

A) Join a legit trading room
B) Get to know who's who online in your chosen trading style and ask around if anyone's taking students. It will no doubt cost' and do your best to make sure not paying a teenager to tell you how it's done
C) Join a good prop firm. (a good friend chose this option and is paying off for him)
D) John at No BS does one on ones. Depending on your budget you could get something going there if you like that style
E) There are many trading network groups in cities (not online based) you could find a coach through
F) Trading education companies usually offer private coaching ... Though if trading is not their main business .. You will probably get a coach who can't trade.. Not necessarily a bad thing
G) Google Trading Coach. I was surprised to find folks actually do this for a living in Brisbane. Even holds a Trading Tribe meeting (Ed Seykota fans)
H) Tap the prop shop resources ... In the end they are the 99.9% of guys who do this for a living

I am thinking right now on my path it is a something I wish I did a long time ago... We don't teach ourselves how to swim or play tennis without a coach eh? Trading is a skill likewise. Because of this belief..I would recommend finding a coach that isn't trying to teach a system or rules etc.. But how to trade.

Hope this helps.

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to grahamg for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #96 (permalink)
melbourne Victoria/australia
 
 
Posts: 68 since Aug 2012
Thanks: 22 given, 59 received


grahamg View Post
Tough one.. I got lucky chatting to a guy through an online trading Skype group who offered to help after a few convos. You never know with these things.. i paid a scammer before.. dam

Brainstorming:-

A) Join a legit trading room
B) Get to know who's who online in your chosen trading style and ask around if anyone's taking students. It will no doubt cost' and do your best to make sure not paying a teenager to tell you how it's done
C) Join a good prop firm. (a good friend chose this option and is paying off for him)
D) John at No BS does one on ones. Depending on your budget you could get something going there if you like that style
E) There are many trading network groups in cities (not online based) you could find a coach through
F) Trading education companies usually offer private coaching ... Though if trading is not their main business .. You will probably get a coach who can't trade.. Not necessarily a bad thing
G) Google Trading Coach. I was surprised to find folks actually do this for a living in Brisbane. Even holds a Trading Tribe meeting (Ed Seykota fans)
H) Tap the prop shop resources ... In the end they are the 99.9% of guys who do this for a living

I am thinking right now on my path it is a something I wish I did a long time ago... We don't teach ourselves how to swim or play tennis without a coach eh? Trading is a skill likewise. Because of this belief..I would recommend finding a coach that isn't trying to teach a system or rules etc.. But how to trade.

Hope this helps.

Thank you for the suggestions. I have been looking for a little while now, found a few coaches, one or two even decent ones, but they trade different instruments. In regards to chat rooms etc. I work full time, and 2 small kids, so any free time I have is spent reading, or staring at the charts......
So, for now, its all books, but as you found out it is a very slowly process.

Good luck with your trading!

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to 223552 for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #97 (permalink)
Melbourne Victoria/Australia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: C-trader, MT4
Broker: Pepperstone
Trading: Forex, Indices
 
Melba swing's Avatar
 
Posts: 68 since May 2013
Thanks: 27 given, 27 received

Hi grahamg,

Congrats on giving this a go. I'm gearing myself for an assault on day trading futures soon. I'm new to the forum and your thread so I haven't read your full journal yet but I'm a fellow aussie and thought I'd give you the thumbs up for your endeavour.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Melba swing for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #98 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Just wrote this on other thread but the gist of it is - I no longer feel like I'm pulling up a seat to each session to cop 3 hours of bund abuse. Trading is becoming more a process of monitoring for the good trades, which I am way more at ease with recognising. Acting on them is still pretty hard. I love a good jump in too early based on what I see instead of waiting for a little more gaming to play out. Or I will see the game and jump in straight away because its a race haha. But at least I am becoming super aware of this occurring, thanks to coach man for patiently pointing out the obvious to me day in day out. This really is just a skill that takes time and repitition to learn. Correcting path as you go. Learning to take in more information and recognise 'the game'.

An example of 'the game'.. Schatz bids of 1000 has the 4000 offer sitting 1 tick above market looking a bit suspect. Bobl keeps lifting offers. Bund ticking around down cheap and then races up as everyone see's a thousand lot trade hitting into the Schatz bid which refreshes. The 4000 lot offer disappears and 1000 hit into the remaining 1000 then goes bid one thousand. Bobl offer absorbves a few thousand really quickly in a classic iceberg scenario. Bund just broke its high of the day by a tick or two and pauses as everyone wonders wtf... schatz just went up.. but bobl is holding.. An eternity passes in a few seconds. Bids on schatz whacked and then again below. 1000 print back into schatz offer which sticks. Bund keeps going up... WTF?!?.. bobl gets whacked.. bund gets whacked.. game is over for ideal fill. Hopefully got a fill just in time or you are working hard to get one. No seriously.. that is probably a normalish scenario that I am starting to see the successful scalper has to be able to process in an instant and get in before or as everyone else realises it.

Coach man is probably reading this thinking.. poor bastard.. he has a long way to go yet if he even gets there. But hey.. its about comparing where you've come from right? You gotta laugh or you'll cry.

Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to grahamg for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #99 (permalink)
 
 
grahamg's Avatar
 
Posts: 112 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 59 given, 106 received

Its now been 7 months of dedication to the Bund cause. I officially finished my training 2 weeks ago except for a catch up now I am back to trading live. To fill the void of skype calls I figured I might write an update.

With the coaching I progressed a lot slower than expected and spent the entire time on the simulator. I am now at the point that I can consistently not lose ticks at a competent enough level to trade one lots again. I was coming close to reaching my 10 tick per session goal while following a plan (as opposed to taking random trades) but with careless simulator trades would give a lot of them back on bad days. SO I am now back to the real deal. I have had a lot of back and forth in my head as to whether so long on the simulator was a good thing or not, especially since the one lot jitters were definitely there yesterday, and (less so) this session. BUT there really is no point arguing it in the end. If you can't consistently trade on the simulator than there should be no reason you can do it with real bucks on the line. I used the excuse on bad days a few times, that I wasn't focused enough because it wasn't real money... that I would take gamble trades I wouldn't take with real risk etc but they are all excuses for not taking responsibility. At the end of the day the process of live trading should be no different than trading on the simulator. There should be minimal extra excitement or accomplishment between making real ticks and fake ticks.. the goal should be to make ticks period. If you don't have the discipline to take making ticks serious on the sim, than probably not going to have much luck trading live either. There are technical differences as to how one is filled on the sim, but with XTrader the queue simulator is real as real, and on NinjaTrader the limit fills will only positively effect trading live as you learn to hit into trades you want to. Anyway thats just some thoughts on the SIM.

So then you get to the point I am at now where you are back on the one lots. Nothing should change with my process of trading / making ticks. BUT it seems there might be a problem there, because all of a sudden I am waiting for more confirmation than I was on SIM.. and taking much more defensive trades on pullbacks etc. Its only day two, and the Bund has been a bit weird being July, and FOMC week... maybe?? So there is my immediate trading goal.. follow my plan.. or a better rule.. trade like I was on the SIM. Luckily I traded long enough on the sim to know exactly where I would be taking trades if it wasn't for some weird subconcious processes making it more scary than it was a week ago, to click the dam mouse. So I will watch that little short circuit occur and hopefully it goes away.

I also should probably visit the "Finding My Trading Niche" goal I started out with. Well having been pretty immersed in the Prop shop style way of trading, and learning alongside a close friend now thriving in a prop shop.. I don't really believe there is some utopia process of trading I initially set out to find. At the end of the day we are pulling up a chair to a boxing match.. trying to consistently throw punches between taking them, in such a manner that you can make enough ticks / $ to justify all the bruises. Yep.. it is indeed a chore, like most other computer based disciplines. I do a lot of coding for my sound tool that helps me read the order flow, which keeps that weird part of me that enjoys coding happy. There are literally office blocks full of algo programmers with resources not available to the retail trader for executing trades etc so my dream of a standalone money making machine is probably a little far fetched. I did get wind though that Algo trading is old news, and that a hybrid between discretionary and algo trading is the way of the future. Hopefully I will be able to tick the Discretionary part off soon enough.

So its now been 7 months of full time dedication to the cause I say again... What I wrote in my previous post still stands.. I feel like I know what I'm doing. There is just such a fine line between reaching my trading goal each session and having a losing session. It is usually a function of concentration and how many mistakes made.
Here is a chart of my accumulative tick profit trade by trade over the last 2 months... it looks like its in an uptrend of sorts, but nothing amazing just yet. Some may say its random.. in which case I may have wasted the last 7 months but I don't think so. One thing is for sure though, trading ain't easy I have 10k left to to make it with so there is my stop


Vendor - PriceSquawk Audible Market Technology
Follow me on Twitter Started this thread Reply With Quote
The following 7 users say Thank You to grahamg for this post:
 
(login for full post details)
  #100 (permalink)
Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: JIGSAW/SIERRA CHART
Broker: MacQuarie Futures/AMP Clearing/CQG
Trading: HHI, HSI, FDAX
 
xiaosi's Avatar
 
Posts: 502 since Feb 2012
Thanks: 448 given, 533 received

You are making progress Graham, it is an uptrend. Well done, keep up the great effort!

XS

Follow me on Twitter Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to xiaosi for this post:


futures io Trading Community Trading Journals > Starting All Over - Finding My Trading Niche


Last Updated on December 29, 2013


Upcoming Webinars and Events
 

NinjaTrader Indicator Challenge!

Ongoing
 

Journal Challenge w/$1500 prizes from Topstep!

February
 

Battlestations! Show us your trading desk - $1,500 in prizes!

March
 

Call Option Buying: The New Pain Trade? w/Carley Garner

Elite only
     



Copyright © 2021 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts