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Starting All Over - Finding My Trading Niche
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View Poll Results: What is the next step?
Stick with purely scalping Bund for another month 5 35.71%
Start position day trading learning market profiling as I go along 6 42.86%
Learn market profile by day - scalp by night 3 21.43%
Voters: 14. You may not vote on this poll

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Starting All Over - Finding My Trading Niche

  #51 (permalink)
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Feb 25 - Made 2 ticks

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Well trading live again - got in there and started off down 3 ticks. Got the courage to enter in again and made it back and then another two. After this it really seemed to seasaw back and forth. Not sure how to make money in that or if it is even worth it.

Relative Volume which I try to use shows that participants have just been continuously exiting the market.

This tool is an indicator from the Jigsaw Trading guy - that compares the days accumulated volume relative to the previous 30 days on a per bar basis. The slope down is a sign that the action just isn't there.

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I was primed to earn a Farrai today but can't make it happen without the market being in play. Maybe the US session will liven up as the Italian Election results come in...?

The leap into freedom is the exchanging of risk for reward. This can be done only by shifting from tension to ease, and that can be done only when one perceives the reward and not the risk. That you won't win all the time has nothing to do with it - that's life, that's the [stock] market. The trying itself is freeing. And being free has its own reward - Justin Mamis, The Nature of Risk
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  #52 (permalink)
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Feb 27th - This is how serious I am

Two days in a row where I reached my max drawdown for the day. Today's trade I hope to never do again. I experienced what it is like to hold onto a loser. The range of the Bobl was only 12 ticks - I held onto my fail safe stop of 6 ticks and felt every single painful second of it. Reason I held on? Because I shouldn't have taken the trade in the first place. Was following the BUND tick by tick, and felt I was getting in rhythm with it, but couldn't pinpoint an entry point. It would just sway one way, and then the other. SO.. after 90 minutes without a trade, something remarkable happened. I felt that the Bund was about to go hell for leather up, moved the mouse over and hit the Offer on the BOBL which had been in a 2 tick range for god knows how long. Bobl immediately went one tick down, so two ticks against my entry. I then looked at the Bobl volume profile and thought I could have justified it if I lent on the step in the profile one tick below my entry. So in the interest in doing everything consistently wrong, I pretended that my entry had been one tick lower, then watched it go another tick down... after which it got far to painful to watch - so I switched my focus back over to the Bund hoping it would come good on its promise to me haha. It ticked back and forth in a three tick range. Bobl barely traded and went down another tick. So FOUR ticks against me. But now the Bund really looked like it would take off back to new highs and the Bobl in good conscience would follow. It didn't.. it went down another tick then another. Stopped me out. Then went up for the next 2 hours. I tried another entry but lost patience and had to walk away from the screen for a while.

I did swallow my pride and place 2 good looking trades - which I could have taken a total of 6 ticks on. However, was stuck in 'make it back' mind frame and exited when it came back on me for breakeven.

The day before wasn't as bad but stopped trading at 6 ticks down. Both trades I should have managed better and would have been a good day - here was my first trade: Trade Feb 26 - Graham83's library

Now I am starting to get the strong desire to switch it up and find a new style - switch to position day trading off Volume Profile like a lot of the guys are doing. This line of thought led me to have a good solid look at my trading and life in general. Pretty much I am allowing a 6 month window from now, fulltime to make trading work for me (remember I've been trying for 3 years already). After that I have to seriously reconsider making a living from Engineering fulltime as I will soon have a wedding to pay for.. and more than likely if I want to keep my wonderful lady a family. These are currently neutral future events, and aren't effecting my trading money management psychology at present, but in 6 months + realistically they will start being a factor I seriously have to consider. This doesn't mean I have to make squillions in 6 months - but if I can make 1 to 2k a week then my pursuit of trading can continue. SO any mentorship, advice, (donations ?) will be warmly welcomed haha Maybe this paragraph adds a touch of REAL to how serious I am about trading... its not just a challenging goal.

Might replay yesterday and see what I could have made of it.

BTW - I am well aware that my original goal WAS to switch it up. But I am taking some advice I read that you gotta stick with a style for at least 3 months.. more than likely 6. I am now two months into Order Flow Scalping.

The leap into freedom is the exchanging of risk for reward. This can be done only by shifting from tension to ease, and that can be done only when one perceives the reward and not the risk. That you won't win all the time has nothing to do with it - that's life, that's the [stock] market. The trying itself is freeing. And being free has its own reward - Justin Mamis, The Nature of Risk

Last edited by grahamg; February 27th, 2013 at 08:54 PM. Reason: Addition
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  #53 (permalink)
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Might just be me but I find the Bobl can be a tricky one to scalp, don't get me wrong im not saying the Bund is easier but I think you can get more bang for you buck with the Bund. I see a setup where im going to go long and the Bund confirms it, the Bobl bid is weak so I sit on the bid trying to get some edge.... 10th in the queue nothing done and it bounces 2 or 3 ticks Argghhhh! Or I lift the offer to get long it goes bid with nothing traded and im sat there again nothing filled or you do get filled, the Bund rallies 10 ticks and the Bobl just sits still, Bund then comes back and you end up scratching. I find the same when you are in a winner and you try to get out, the Bobl can just slip away... Its a strange creature that sometimes leads, sometimes follows and other times has a mind of its own, I think the reason is its used a lot for spreading/hedging. I find using the cvd on Jigsaw summary tape can be useful when thinking about a trade it helps to show what the big money is doing if both Bund and Bobl cvd going up a long is more promising at times you will see Bund cvd going up and Bobl going down obv vice versa this im sure is spread action going on which can make it harder to read. Problem is a 6 tick daily stop could be quite tight for the Bund..

May not of been any help but just thought I would share my thoughts...

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  #54 (permalink)
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@mjs1

Thanks for the observation. Your description of the Bobl is in line with what I see / experience whenever I place a trade on it. I started out with Sim on the Bobl and quickly switched to Bund because it was doing all the moving, and the Bobl would suddenly jump to get in line with Bund if it got too far behind, or just stay there til the Bund bounced back to where it started. Probably relationships that some folk can learn very well and trade off. I personally like to look for 'flow' - so Bund is a lot friendlier for this. However I certainly need to hone my skills on its reversal points - because lately it doesn't seem to battle it out at a price so much tipping you off that the money is supporting it - just for instance, sellers drying up on the way down, one buy order of a few hundred turns it around.

I have seen two or three hectic days in the Bund where the Bobl trades smoothly and is my only option (other than Schatz) to trade as Bund too fast. On those days Bobl traded a lot like the Bund usually does.

Probably do need to give myself more drawdown than 6 ticks.. good point.

The leap into freedom is the exchanging of risk for reward. This can be done only by shifting from tension to ease, and that can be done only when one perceives the reward and not the risk. That you won't win all the time has nothing to do with it - that's life, that's the [stock] market. The trying itself is freeing. And being free has its own reward - Justin Mamis, The Nature of Risk
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  #55 (permalink)
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Progression of Skills

Thanks to some good responses... I have some more questions thoughts.

Correct me if I am wrong - but trading is just a skill like anything else. A difficult one, but I am trying to think of it, like playing golf, or learning to surf. I have been trying to learn to surf for 3 months now. I can stand up, once in 5 attempts, and properly ride a wave every third or so time I stand up. I have only been doing it about twice a week so not even as quick a learning curve as trading. However there are set components to surfing that you must practice and nail until you can put them all together and ride out a wave.
- Getting on the right wave
- Position on the board
- Getting on your feet etc...
- Staying on your feet
- Directing the board

Why should scalping be any different. The No BS and Jigsaw material's give the components for profitable trades. Why can't anyone dedicated enough master these components, and then put them together to make a living out of trading? Is it purely a matter of effort / dedication? I think it should be, but I haven't made it yet. The hardest part as of late is getting on the right wave (trading) as Bund is not giving clear clues as to direction to my eyes.

If you have made it to a point you are confident to scalp for profits consistently - do you agree with me?

In regards to switching up trading styles - it is obvious that unless you stick with it for long enough for the skill components to become second nature, then you have no chance of progressing, and becoming proficient in a method. For that reason I am sticking with the pure order flow scalping unless someone can give me a good enough counter argument.

After I can scalp, is it a normal trading progression to -

1. Be able to read order flow well enough to consistently scalp for profits THEN
2. Learn Volume Profiling techniques for position day trading
3. Use scalping skills to get set for a larger move using volume profiling / price action?

The other thing that has been bugging me is how do you put order flow scalping into the ever so talked about 'Trading Plan'. My Plan is - look for places where bigger traders are tipping their hand and jump on board. Should my plan be more defined than that? Does anyone have a list of plays they look for to scalp off? The FT71 guy gives examples of scalping off the DOM - BUT uses levels for fading, moving average for getting on pullbacks in trend etc. Chart based indicators to tell when to scalp - but this is against the No BS way.

With my plan there are a few guidelines that I have picked up from others and watching the Bund that can help along the way:

- Levels can be areas to look for signs of big traders tipping their hand
- Don't fade the first push to highs / lows in the Bund as they usually move it past twice (thanks Oleg)
- Don't jump in front of the train (trend)
- Use Cumulative Delta to get the overall direction of buying / selling of big players and scalp in that direction
- Compare volume to previous days for the type of action to expect and possibly not scalp if volume dries up continually

Any other good ones to add to this?

Am I thinking too much about this and should be just firing away ?? Correcting path as I go...?

One exercise I have been pondering doing, but I am too scared to try live with one lots is - take a trade every time I have that initial opinion on direction.. like 'this is going to reverse here'... or 'buyers just got the upper hand'.. without any further justification in the DOM action. Wonder how expensive a session that would be?!? Is it worth doing anyway? We probably all start trading with someone else's trading filters and resist taking the ones our internal dialogue says to take... but is that a lesson that needs to be learnt? I seem to be accumulating a lot of 'What if I just took that one.." scenarios

Enough rambling. Bund was dead yesterday and in the 7 hours I was watching it took no trades, thus all the 'thoughts' in this post.

I look forward to anyone's responses / feedback.

The leap into freedom is the exchanging of risk for reward. This can be done only by shifting from tension to ease, and that can be done only when one perceives the reward and not the risk. That you won't win all the time has nothing to do with it - that's life, that's the [stock] market. The trying itself is freeing. And being free has its own reward - Justin Mamis, The Nature of Risk
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  #56 (permalink)
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grahamg View Post
Thanks to some good responses... I have some more questions thoughts.

Correct me if I am wrong - but trading is just a skill like anything else. A difficult one, but I am trying to think of it, like playing golf, or learning to surf. I have been trying to learn to surf for 3 months now. I can stand up, once in 5 attempts, and properly ride a wave every third or so time I stand up. I have only been doing it about twice a week so not even as quick a learning curve as trading. However there are set components to surfing that you must practice and nail until you can put them all together and ride out a wave.
- Getting on the right wave
- Position on the board
- Getting on your feet etc...
- Staying on your feet
- Directing the board

Why should scalping be any different. The No BS and Jigsaw material's give the components for profitable trades. Why can't anyone dedicated enough master these components, and then put them together to make a living out of trading? Is it purely a matter of effort / dedication? I think it should be, but I haven't made it yet. The hardest part as of late is getting on the right wave (trading) as Bund is not giving clear clues as to direction to my eyes.

If you have made it to a point you are confident to scalp for profits consistently - do you agree with me?

In regards to switching up trading styles - it is obvious that unless you stick with it for long enough for the skill components to become second nature, then you have no chance of progressing, and becoming proficient in a method. For that reason I am sticking with the pure order flow scalping unless someone can give me a good enough counter argument.

After I can scalp, is it a normal trading progression to -

1. Be able to read order flow well enough to consistently scalp for profits THEN
2. Learn Volume Profiling techniques for position day trading
3. Use scalping skills to get set for a larger move using volume profiling / price action?

The other thing that has been bugging me is how do you put order flow scalping into the ever so talked about 'Trading Plan'. My Plan is - look for places where bigger traders are tipping their hand and jump on board. Should my plan be more defined than that? Does anyone have a list of plays they look for to scalp off? The FT71 guy gives examples of scalping off the DOM - BUT uses levels for fading, moving average for getting on pullbacks in trend etc. Chart based indicators to tell when to scalp - but this is against the No BS way.

With my plan there are a few guidelines that I have picked up from others and watching the Bund that can help along the way:

- Levels can be areas to look for signs of big traders tipping their hand
- Don't fade the first push to highs / lows in the Bund as they usually move it past twice (thanks Oleg)
- Don't jump in front of the train (trend)
- Use Cumulative Delta to get the overall direction of buying / selling of big players and scalp in that direction
- Compare volume to previous days for the type of action to expect and possibly not scalp if volume dries up continually

Any other good ones to add to this?

Am I thinking too much about this and should be just firing away ?? Correcting path as I go...?

One exercise I have been pondering doing, but I am too scared to try live with one lots is - take a trade every time I have that initial opinion on direction.. like 'this is going to reverse here'... or 'buyers just got the upper hand'.. without any further justification in the DOM action. Wonder how expensive a session that would be?!? Is it worth doing anyway? We probably all start trading with someone else's trading filters and resist taking the ones our internal dialogue says to take... but is that a lesson that needs to be learnt? I seem to be accumulating a lot of 'What if I just took that one.." scenarios

Enough rambling. Bund was dead yesterday and in the 7 hours I was watching it took no trades, thus all the 'thoughts' in this post.

I look forward to anyone's responses / feedback.

I don't know the answers, but good questions. John has mentioned several times in his webinars now, he is not trying to get people to trade like him, he is just showing us what he has done to be successful. I don't think there is 1 way.

Also, you can't be scared to fail. The path to success is littered with failure. There is no way around that. Don't be afraid to fail on a trade. If you want to try that exercise with one lots, then do it, as long as you can afford to lose the money.

20,000,000
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  #57 (permalink)
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Some Weekend Thinking On Markets

Getting philosophical on this - If the market participants stayed the same each day I could at least pre-define what I am looking for as a sequence of events based on certain volume exchanging hands, and use this as my entry and exit criteria. The main complexity comes in then with the ever changing market conditions from one day to the next, one week to the next, one month to the next etc. This means that even if I had the ideal, objective setup to master my trading psychology with, It would not work probably most days because the market structure and participants is dynamic, and either I would 'break' mentally, or break the system I am trying to trade with.. probably break both ways at the same time! But then comes in the probability argument, that as long as the methodology works enough to be your edge in the long run, you can trade systematically. So as according to Mark Douglas, every moment in the markets is unique, so you must trade systematically a method that is profitable over the long run. I won't argue with that - however what if the markets were too dynamic for this to be possible??

I have so far experimented with 2 days trading on the simulator (at 4x speed) with an objective system in the Bund that I thought would work based on what I have seen so far. Fading levels. Within 2 points of Yesterday's high, low, midpoint, close, and Today's high, low or midpoint, or open. Stop at 3 ticks, profit at 6 ticks. I took a bunch of trades, and was profitable about 50% of the time which means I made money on the sim.. but only if I didn't pay commissions. Perhaps this should be my exercise in the live market to get the right mental state at least, even if it is at a cost. This method only works though on range bound days and gets crushed on trending days. I can define which type based on more probabilities, on the relative volume for the day's action. If relative volume (todays accumulated volume relative to the average of the last 30 days) is decreasing - its going to be range bound-ish. If relative volume is increasing constantly - trending. If relative volume is flat (average) - range boundish. .. etc. So some rules to start trying to define my setups are emerging.

I am currently tossing up which would be the better exercise to pay for in the markets - the above paragraph, OR taking EVERY discretionary trade based on my skill in reading the market order flow, without hesitation. That way if I don't make money, I am not reading market order flow correctly and can improve on that skill. Simple eh? This probably sounds ludicrous to the systems orientated trader. There is probably no right way, just 'your' way.

As always, trying to turn everything into Mark Douglas speak - I can see that I should first be able to execute trades like I am a robot, to get the right mental state. Then move onto discretionary. If this is the only way to go about it then I will probably need to cash up some more first. I suppose I am trying to bypass that expense by taking John Grady's word for it that prop style trading is a skill that can be learned with enough experience and hard knock lessons, which results in expense again. Probably a slower death. I am unsure which is more valuable. I know I can execute a system flawlessly in the markets even if it loses me money. This is because I disassociate from the trading and results, which sort of defeats the purpose of the lesson.

If someone was to give me an objective system to execute that works I would prefer that, as I could then rule out the flaws if I had developed my own system, that wasn't making money. However this systematic like trading would probably give me smaller returns, which once again, I would disassociate from, as that is not interesting enough. So perhaps with my personality - I probably need to go through the school of hard knocks. Which probably means enough rambling on, this week I need to take some trades and correct my path along the way.

And thanks to the obvious pointing out from a friend - my journal so far has involved a lot of trading psychology obstacles. The original idea was that I should find a profitable trading methodology before trying to fix my head. Finding that profitable trading methodology has its own mental challenges and obstacles to overcome in its own right, where knowledge of trading psychology comes in handy. Its all one big mess though really. I am not sure I believe there is a purely objective trading methodology out there. Discretion has to come into it one way or another. Even the systems traders have to decide when to turn off their systems!

The leap into freedom is the exchanging of risk for reward. This can be done only by shifting from tension to ease, and that can be done only when one perceives the reward and not the risk. That you won't win all the time has nothing to do with it - that's life, that's the [stock] market. The trying itself is freeing. And being free has its own reward - Justin Mamis, The Nature of Risk
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  #58 (permalink)
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Scalping Video Archive

I created this in the hope of starting an archive of No BS style scalping trades in the DOM. For those slow rainy days when you just can't watch any more JG webinar recordings and want to see someone pulling the Bund to pieces or smashing up the S&P instead.. its a co-author blog so if anyone is interested check out the first post describing what the goal is and instructions - and give me your email so i can add you as coauthor. No agenda here other than to enhance scalping skills by watching others trade.

Scalpers Anon Video Posts

The goal is to attract and bounce off similar traders, which is why its separate from any forum.. so as to keep the comments closely relevant to this particular style of trading.

The leap into freedom is the exchanging of risk for reward. This can be done only by shifting from tension to ease, and that can be done only when one perceives the reward and not the risk. That you won't win all the time has nothing to do with it - that's life, that's the [stock] market. The trying itself is freeing. And being free has its own reward - Justin Mamis, The Nature of Risk
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  #59 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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Hi Graham,

Are you still day trading ASX? I am in Melbourne. Doing short to medium term trading (beginners...) outside my full-time job.. (I write my trading journal here as well)
I have been following SMB for a little while now (read the book as well.) Would be interested in hearing your thoughts/experience on trading ASX.

Cheers,
Felix

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  #60 (permalink)
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@FELIX

I am still tied up with learning to scalp the futures markets at this point. Thus it is approaching 12.30am in Goldie and I am still staring at the DOM since 5pm. Not much cracking today. After reading One Good Trade I started this journal and was juiced for trading ASX in a similar fashion but there is one big problem for me. Commissions are huge for retail trading Aussie stocks and the margin is extraordinary compared to trading futures... so my hands are kind of tied unless I find a few100k to add to my trading account. From my research - Interactive Brokers are a good deal when it comes to aussie stocks. I was going to do it with CFDs but after watching the 'real' tape as of late, I am not willing to give up the spread and put up with the sneaky slippage that always seems to occur with CFDs.

'Play Book' by Bella also comes out this month which will be a worthy read if you are going down that line I think. I think it would complete the picture of One Good Trade - which gives enough insight as to how they are trading, along with SMB university blogs etc.. just need the setups to master and away you go.

Will keep an eye on how you're going on your journal, good luck.

The leap into freedom is the exchanging of risk for reward. This can be done only by shifting from tension to ease, and that can be done only when one perceives the reward and not the risk. That you won't win all the time has nothing to do with it - that's life, that's the [stock] market. The trying itself is freeing. And being free has its own reward - Justin Mamis, The Nature of Risk
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