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PuraVida's Stock Swing Journal


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PuraVida's Stock Swing Journal

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  #1 (permalink)
puravida
Munich
 
 
Posts: 29 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 3 given, 33 received

General Info:
- Age 33 & 35, my wife and i are trading together as a team.
- my wife is fulltime trading since a half year now (i still have a regular job),
since that time we are starting to get profitable. Next to that, i have the "usual"
history of many traders, i lost about 50k in the 5 years before, by making a lot of
stupid mistakes until i understood what trading is about to the level where i am now
together with my wife.
- we use "psycho cybernetics" and NLP to train our minds and dwell in "The zone"
- Currently we only trade stocks in germany and US, i am recently evaluating our
strategies on e-minis.
- While my wife is mostly the discretionary trader, i support her with technical and
fundamental analysis. She is the portfolio manager, so she finally decides what to
trade, i just keep her in "control" by moneymanagement and support her by
coaching the proper mindset and set up new challenges through retrospectives.

SWING-Trade Setup
- trading support/resistance (and failures) in german mid and small cap stocks
(MDAX, SDAX, TECDAX)
- screening 150 Charts every week once, watch the ones that were noted closely the
next week for potential trades. Here we "force" intuition by watching only 2sek on a single chart.
- trade long and short positions
- Ratio 3:1 with 1 R = 300,00€ at the moment
- Trade must have potential to achieve 3:1 ratio to support/resistance (analysed by NT)
- Account Balance is 100k, leveraged up to 250k (not everything for this strategy)
- Holding about 5-10 Positions at the same time with this strategy
- Current Target: 1.000€ consistent every month with 1R = 300,00€ and only Swings. This is a
minimum to evaluate, we do take every trade that occurs and are not limiting ourselfs to 1.000€.
- Initial Stops placed by chart reading, risk adjusted position size
- Taking Profits on 1R (Break Even), 2.5R (2R Profit) and target at 3R

Sample at the screenshot below of one current Swing Trade, the stock was BOT at 25,16€ as the
rebound seemed to be established. The trade is now at break even and waiting to take profits as it reaches
higher highs.


What to expect from the Journal:
This is an additional strategy i made for me and my wife, so that we can take monthly
profits next to our long term trades. I will track the weekly events on P/L and some additional info.
On a monthly basis, i will reevaluate our target and have some statistics drawn, so we can use it
as an retrospective what went good and what has to be improved the next month.

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  #3 (permalink)
puravida
Munich
 
 
Posts: 29 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 3 given, 33 received


Week 24.11 to 30.11
- BOT 5 SWING positions, 4 longs 1 short.
- BE on two positions after 3 days
- STP-BUY open on 2 more stocks

Retrospective:
- Trades according to MM rules
- Short position, while general market is up is more dangerous, but this was known and calculated. We are ready to reverse if the support breakout was a failure (prepared by visualizing).
- I will be more objective with my charts to distinguish between Swings and Turns
- Some trades were "too late" according to were a rebound occoured, i will be more strict on this next week

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  #5 (permalink)
puravida
Munich
 
 
Posts: 29 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 3 given, 33 received

Week 03.12 - 07.12
- reversed the short as our stop was hit (-1R)
- taken 2R, 3R then 4R profit on the "skyrocket"
trade (see screenshots) by raising the stop.
- BOT another Swing according to rules and MM
- Holding 6 Swings right now


Retrospective
We did as planned with the short and reversed it to long without much hesitation, it still feeled a bit uneasy to reverse an initial idea, but we executed correctly.

The first trade is a real skyrocket, nice to see the trade advancing like that and that the strategy fits to follow such a rally after 3R with tight stops. Neverless, this shouldn't be expected everytime, a profit between 2R and 3R is more likely to happen. It felt much more easy to take profits on Swings then on our longs.

The last swing was again a bit too late, therefore we focused more on recent rebounds while screening the charts this time. We also tried to focus on trades that have a potential to make money fast, so we looked more closely at the avg. time in market we would have if we followed some recent swings of a screened stock.

Generally it was a decent second week while starting our journey to smaller time frames. We still need to get more used to it, but the strategy will generate enough trades to speed up learning. Execution was ok, not perfect, but we did not make any bigger mistakes we are (currently) aware of.

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  #6 (permalink)
puravida
Munich
 
 
Posts: 29 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 3 given, 33 received

Week 10.12 - 16.12
- stopped out on the skyrocket (+4R)
- BE on the reversed trade as we had 1R. Raised stop to 2R and stopped out (+2R) the day after.
- One trade stopped out with loss (-1R)
- BOT three more Swings
- Cleared on one stock (+0,48R) for margin requirements. Well we should now that if you not expect all orders for a
day to be filled it exactly happens then... one too much for the memorandum. We should be more careful of our
margin requirements/leverage. Current leverage factor is 2.37, lets get it below 2.0, holidays are coming anyway.
- BE on another position
- 2R profit stop on one position


Retrospective
Since my wife is a volcano when it comes to trading ideas, we need a lot of money to play every idea she comes up with. I really hate to see her ideas working and us sitting on the side since our capital is already fully invested, but somehow we have to get used to this. Our leverage factor is on the limit, so we are as always tending to overtrade when things run fine. I am not sure if this is actually a bad habbit, surely overtrading is a bad thing when you try to get out of a drawdown, but when you are "in the zone" and things flow easily... need to think that through. Fact is, we are trading on the edge of our leverage and capital limits, although our risk is always limited, a margin call is a sign that something is wrong (even when it happens when you are up).

Execution was ok on every trade this week, MM and rules were followed without hesitation.

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puravida
Munich
 
 
Posts: 29 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 3 given, 33 received

Week 17.12 - 23.12
- one winner (+2R)
- one loss (-1R)
- BOT 4 more Swings, 6 Active
- "promoted" one BE swing to our longs because of fundamental changes and possible acquisition
- All trades according to rules and MM


Retrospective
We learned in the last few weeks that reversing an initial trade idea when the markets signals it, is a skill we should master.
We learned that a second try is always an option, its never too late to enter a trade if you got whipsawed and see your initial idea working afterwards.
Intuition of my wife what to sell in case of emergency (the margin call) is superior to mine. I tend to get more emotional one situations that are not planned,
most likely my sight on the market is limited in that state, so she should take over at this point. We will prepare better next time by writing down an additional emergency strategy in our business plan.
The margin call made chaos in planning and confuses the flow. Hard to sell good stocks if you must, because of stupidity.
Swings work even better when whole markets are in a good swing state.

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  #8 (permalink)
puravida
Munich
 
 
Posts: 29 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 3 given, 33 received

System stats for Dez2012
Statistics for the swing system first month. Naturally these values are very rough, since we only have a small sample right now.

Expectancy/STDDEV-R is 0.39 (rating "excellent")
SQN is 0.92 which is 3.87 on n = 100 (rating "excellent")
Expectancy is 0.80, which would require about 10 trades / month to meet the system goal of 8R / month.

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puravida
Munich
 
 
Posts: 29 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 3 given, 33 received

Business Plan Update
- Target for strategies "long" and "swing" set to: 8R / Month after one year period
- Target for all strategies: Expectancy/STDDEV and SQN (n=100) to be "good" or better
- 1R start for this year in Strategy: Long is 600 (Allocation: 175k)
- 1R start for this year in Strategy: Futures is $500 (Allocation: 10k)
- 1R start for this year in Strategy: Swings is 300 (Allocation: 75k)
- Strategy Update: This year swings will be choosen from NASDAQ 100 (lower costs, market diversification, optimal trading time in CET, more liquidity)
- Strategy Update: Longs will now be trailed by our volatility stop after break even instead of chartreading (no emotions, measureable)
- Strategy Update: Break even trades need to cover costs, therefore take 0.25R on systems "swing" and "long" and 10% of risk on system "futures" next to pos.avg. (reduce trading costs on break even trades)

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puravida
Munich
 
 
Posts: 29 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 3 given, 33 received


Strategies CW 1 - 2

System 1: Longs CW2
- BOT one long in NASDAQ
- active = 1

System 2: Swings CW2
- 3 Winners (+7,25R)
- One loss (-1R)
- active = 9

System 3: Futures from CW1
- 3 contracts on YM,NQ,ES on the fiscal cliff news (+4,6R)
- active = flat

Retrospective
- we still struggle sometimes between pure discretionary trading vs. our rule based strategies. generally all our entries are discretionary, we have rules what condition must be in place, but the final decision if the time and instrument is right, is the gut instict of my wife. often she finds instruments where she as a strong feeling, but they do not fit into any of our stratgies... so we let the trades go, nearly every time to our disadvantage.

- we have new debriefing checklists for discipline and daily, weekly and monthly tasks that have to be done (from big picture analysis to taxes and doing something for our health). We both are still working on our old habits and failed to achieve the requirements on the checklists several times... we will get better in this.

- one of my disadvantges is, that i am sometimes sloppy when it comes to adjusting orders or writing down values for our statistics. This week again, i made at least two major mistakes in adjusting the orders wrong. I will be more careful on this and will let my wife doublecheck.

- since i start working again at my job, my wife needs to use all analysis tools by herself and she has to get more used to them. this week she had problems adjusting one of the indicators, which led to a late entry and some profits on the table. i will give her a better overview and some more scenarios, so she will be prepared whatever comes.

- execution was good, no rules broken on the strategies, position sizing used properly (one small mistake in dollar/euro conversion!)

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puravida
Munich
 
 
Posts: 29 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 3 given, 33 received

Strategies CW 3

System 2: Swings
- 3 Winners (+8,77R)
- 2 Loosers (-2,15R)
- active = 11

Retrospective
- we are getting more used to the higher trading frequency, but we still need some time to perfect our daily routine
- new NT script "SwingFinder" to screen lots of stocks for possible swings so we can scan the whole S&P 500 and german market
- discipline on our debriefing checklist is getting better, but still some misses on minor tasks
- implemented our first savings plan (mutual fund, bonds) for passive income according to our business plan
- trading definitly dominates our time, private life is down to a minimum for several month now and we should take things a bit easier since the foundation is built now
(our evening normally starts with something like "hey babe, so hows trading been?" or "hey babe, you know, i've seen this really nice stock and...").

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puravida
Munich
 
 
Posts: 29 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 3 given, 33 received

Strategies CW 4

System 2: Swings
- 1 Winner (+1,6R)
- 2 Losses (-2,75R)

Retrospective
- system from "holy grail" to "excellent" because of mistakes in 3 trades (order size wrong, mixed long/swing pos. size
once, adjusted stop wrong). 2 mistakes due to "sloppiness", one was actually a break of rules which we have
analysed further. The situation was: the stock fitted to both systems at the same time, so we have to clearify what to
do in such a situation instead of mixing both systems.
- we need to focus more on discipline and the process if we want to reach peak performance, therefore we will
redesign our daily routines to be more effective.
- adding S&P 500 stocks to the swing-pool has proven to be a good idea so far

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puravida
Munich
 
 
Posts: 29 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 3 given, 33 received

Strategies January

Swing System Stats

Total SQN for DEZ+JAN is 3,26 (n=100) and Expectancy/STDDEV 0,39 = rating "excellent"



Notes:
- we were "only" about 50% right and still made a few thousand dollars, so this should show that there is no need to be "right" on trading if you want to make money (sure it helps, but it is not necessary!)
- we know the system would be better if we did no mistakes, so target is to play it without any mistake
- with proper mindset, position sizing and discipline, this system can make more than 100% a year (need 8R/month on 1% risk)
- we will focus on bringing this system to "holy grail" stats and holding it

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puravida
Munich
 
 
Posts: 29 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 3 given, 33 received

BigPicture and expectations Jan2013

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puravida
Munich
 
 
Posts: 29 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 3 given, 33 received

Strategies CW 5

System 2: Swings
5 Losses (-6,12R). One loss -2,54R due to a big opening gap. One mistake (-0,53R - Stop position wrong)
4 Winners (+9,50R)
Active: 11

Retrospective
- i made the major mistake to activate our futures system, even as there was no clear evidence given to do it. Resulting in a loss of -1,5R.
This reminded me that i should focus on what i am best in: coaching. My wife would never had broken the rules on that system, so we probably will do better
if i stop interfering after the systems are created and let her alone play them. Since i am doing coaching for a living and am good at it, it should be a
no brainer, but uhm...
- i created 2 new strategies for later use, both focusing on long term investment. We have 5 strategies for different market situations
ready to use in our business plan now.
- the swing system started with the biggest drawdown so far (-5R), but since we have a higher frequency of trades than in the beginning,
we already recovered and made additional +3,38R

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puravida
Munich
 
 
Posts: 29 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 3 given, 33 received

Strategies CW 6

System 2: Swings
4 Loosers (-3,80R)


Retrospective
- system down on break even for last two weeks without many mistakes (Total: -0,47R). So it must be a reason of
the discretionary mindset or normal behaviour of the system. Since my wife was not in the best mood last week, we
will focus on mindset training (attaining NLP-Practitioner seminar in march).
- neverless, the system works as expected. We are break even on 33,33% profitable, which fits to my statistical
forecast.
- long system made good profits last week, so it is always a good thing to play several systems at once in our
opinion.
- we will be break even on total equity with another $10.000. So we made up nearly all our former losses of 5 years
of bad trading (we are up about 85% on our total equity in the last 6 month). My wife still rejects to pay herself bevore
we reach that "magic break even number". I tried to convice her, that this number only exists in our beliefs and
there is no rule except to her own that decides when to take profits for living, but for her it would be "taking money
out of debt".

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puravida
Munich
 
 
Posts: 29 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 3 given, 33 received

Strategies CW 7

System 2: Swings
6 Loosers
1 Winner

Retrospective
- we combined the Swing and Long System, so we have a clear rule when to promote Swings to Longs. ("let your winners run...")
- still, the swing system did not very well the last two weeks but it is nearly on break even with less than 30% profitability, so it works as expected.
- we needed clear rules for pyramiding, since we did not defined the position size. The last pyramide broke a freetrade, so we made up some easy rules to not let that happen again.
- since it took me a lot of time to do a big picture analysis i often cut short. To make my life easier, i created an excel file to analyse a lot of vector etfs and the big picture on p/e, interest rates, bonds and SMA's automatically.

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puravida
Munich
 
 
Posts: 29 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 3 given, 33 received

Strategies February

Swing System:
swing system 3 month live evaluation ended
What do we learned?
- higher frequency is more stressfull, the amount of trades and analysis is a fulltime job
- volatile stocks are harder to handle with our stops
- higher frequency is a nice opportunity to learn fast through your mistakes
- you don't have to be right often if the system has a high expectancy (33% was still break even)
- we tend to play the system very mechanical, cherry picking was not as useful as it was with our longs
- it is harder to maintain discipline on higher trading frequency
- through the swing analysis, we found a lot of nice longs. If the swing ended in a breakout, it often qualified for a nice long.

Swing Stats 3 month:
Profitable 45%
Avg. time in market: 8 days
Kelly2risk: 0,5% CPR
Total R: 5,24 (about 7,5 without mistakes)
Expectancy: about 0,68 (still open trades counted as cashed now)

Next Months:
- Swing system worked as expected in backtesting/walk forward, will be evaluated another 3 months in the next sidewards market.
- using only the long system now until market type changes
- evaluating new addition to long system: "efficient stocks". I will track this evaluation here in the journal instead of the swings.

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puravida
Munich
 
 
Posts: 29 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 3 given, 33 received

Consensus:
- still Bull-Market, non-volatile
- a bit more "noise" through fiscall cliff and italy elections

Total Equity Performance (unrealized):
UP January 13,25%
UP February 11,14%

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puravida
Munich
 
 
Posts: 29 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 3 given, 33 received

Strategies CW8

Noch much going since we stopped the swing system, BOT two efficient stocks for our running long strategy.
We started playing around with another more short term strategy, but it will take some time in papertrading until it will be tested with real money.

Retrospective
- Mistake: one of the long stocks was not really liquid enough... we need some kind of filter for this, so i will add something to our market screeners.
- I started coaching someone who really wanted it for some time now and the feedback for the first seminar was really good. It showed me that i seem to be able to transport my trading knowledge to others through my coaching experience.

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puravida
Munich
 
 
Posts: 29 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 3 given, 33 received

Strategies CW9

BOT another efficient stock, stopped out on the illiquid one (...)

Retrospective
- added a filter for detecting illiquid stocks right from the start
- updated our bigpicture to be even more automatic, since i can not find a working source for some of the historic data in germany, these values need to be checked by hand (no problem for US market, lot of nice pages tracking everything out there).
- updated our efficency screener to distinguish between different time frames and added an option for a total value over three given timeframes. Makes it a lot easier to rank the stocks if you just have to look up a single value instead of several.
- further looking at using ETFs for margin efficient investing and some diversification away from the stock market... but not much "green" besides stock market at the moment. Commodities are down except Timber and Water, and only Thailand has a clear ongoing uptrend in Countries, everything else in a strong uptrend seems stock market specific (sectors).

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puravida
Munich
 
 
Posts: 29 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 3 given, 33 received

BigPicture & Expectations

- EU markets more nervous due to political factors, 9W SMA broken (YELLOW), partially overbought
- US Market stronger in super sectors now (consumer staples seem to be the runner right now)
- Commodities down except Natural Gas, Oil, Timber and Water.
- Bonds still a lousy investment, only EU-Corp-Bonds are a bit up
- Strongest Countries: Turkey, Japan
- General tendencies towards more "conservative" investment sectors (health care, consumer, utilities, ...)
- Real Estate light green except china

Consensus:
Still [BULL, NON VOLATILE] for US and EU markets.
EU markets are close to be considered VOLATILE and retraced quite much in the last few weeks.
Only a few DE stocks left that were classified as efficient
Stocks are still the way to go, focus is on US market.

Retrospective
- our longterm stop system does not fit in modern times and our feelings (we are giving up too much), we need to
create a monthly income, so we can not stick with stocks that retrace too hard, even if they turn later on. Therefore
we adjusted our volatility stop to be more short term.
- the more money you leverage, the more efficient the investments should be (risk through amount of money
instead of risky investments). Since we opened our portfolio margin on IB, we need to focus on beeing aggressive
through amount of money and low risk ideas.
- stops should never be adjusted through gut instinct, the automatic system is always a better choice for us as the
past statistic showed
- we have to focus more on timing when to enter the market, therefore we adjusted our market filters to screen
the indicies too

Total Equity Performance (unrealized):
UP January 13,25%
UP February 11,14%
UP March 4,03%

Current Efficient Strategy Stats (started in March2013 with adjusted Stop):
One Loss -0,81R
10 active
not enough trades so far with the new stop for statistics

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