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PuraVida's Stock Swing Journal


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PuraVida's Stock Swing Journal

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  #21 (permalink)
Munich
 
 
Posts: 29 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 3 given, 33 received

Strategies CW9

BOT another efficient stock, stopped out on the illiquid one (...)

Retrospective
- added a filter for detecting illiquid stocks right from the start
- updated our bigpicture to be even more automatic, since i can not find a working source for some of the historic data in germany, these values need to be checked by hand (no problem for US market, lot of nice pages tracking everything out there).
- updated our efficency screener to distinguish between different time frames and added an option for a total value over three given timeframes. Makes it a lot easier to rank the stocks if you just have to look up a single value instead of several.
- further looking at using ETFs for margin efficient investing and some diversification away from the stock market... but not much "green" besides stock market at the moment. Commodities are down except Timber and Water, and only Thailand has a clear ongoing uptrend in Countries, everything else in a strong uptrend seems stock market specific (sectors).

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  #22 (permalink)
Munich
 
 
Posts: 29 since Nov 2012
Thanks: 3 given, 33 received

BigPicture & Expectations

- EU markets more nervous due to political factors, 9W SMA broken (YELLOW), partially overbought
- US Market stronger in super sectors now (consumer staples seem to be the runner right now)
- Commodities down except Natural Gas, Oil, Timber and Water.
- Bonds still a lousy investment, only EU-Corp-Bonds are a bit up
- Strongest Countries: Turkey, Japan
- General tendencies towards more "conservative" investment sectors (health care, consumer, utilities, ...)
- Real Estate light green except china

Consensus:
Still [BULL, NON VOLATILE] for US and EU markets.
EU markets are close to be considered VOLATILE and retraced quite much in the last few weeks.
Only a few DE stocks left that were classified as efficient
Stocks are still the way to go, focus is on US market.

Retrospective
- our longterm stop system does not fit in modern times and our feelings (we are giving up too much), we need to
create a monthly income, so we can not stick with stocks that retrace too hard, even if they turn later on. Therefore
we adjusted our volatility stop to be more short term.
- the more money you leverage, the more efficient the investments should be (risk through amount of money
instead of risky investments). Since we opened our portfolio margin on IB, we need to focus on beeing aggressive
through amount of money and low risk ideas.
- stops should never be adjusted through gut instinct, the automatic system is always a better choice for us as the
past statistic showed
- we have to focus more on timing when to enter the market, therefore we adjusted our market filters to screen
the indicies too

Total Equity Performance (unrealized):
UP January 13,25%
UP February 11,14%
UP March 4,03%

Current Efficient Strategy Stats (started in March2013 with adjusted Stop):
One Loss -0,81R
10 active
not enough trades so far with the new stop for statistics

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April 7, 2013


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