@SteveH. Great post. I entirely agree with the part above. As K rightly pointed out transaction costs dramatically affect intraday trader bottom lines to a point that the edge must be significant to turn a profit. My estimate is on average intraday traders need their winning % to be 60% to cover these transaction costs. Intraday scalpers can be upward of 70%. As a swing trader I'm sitting at 1-2% which straight off the bat gives me an advantage.
The other point is the smaller the timeframe the fiercer the competition. It's easier to be gamed, statistical probabilities become within the reach of advanced algos and you are playing in the pool with sharks who have been trading professionally in the intraday timeframe for 20+ years.
Last edited by djkiwi; December 8th, 2012 at 06:27 PM.
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Been out of my QMF short at 86.40 with a profit and wait now for the big move. So far (i.e. since the beginning of this thread) my QM trades are about breakeven due to the stupid flipping at the beginning. Waiting for the big move to overcompensate that.
I am flat NGH too and not so sure anymore about my long scenario. The next two weeks will be crucial for the mid-term direction. Had my largest losses so far in NG and wait for the big move here as well similar to QM.
By the way, my Soybean trade is my best one so far (and the only one where I have been right, right from the start). Still long here. Will add on pull-backs.
On Silver waiting for consolidation to finish. No position currently.
EDIT: Trying a short in NGH at 3.508. Looks like my original scenario (break of trend line) is playing out.
Last edited by karoshiman; December 10th, 2012 at 07:46 AM.
Reason: Changed position.
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