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Swing Trading Futures

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  #31 (permalink)
Mercer Island WA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: Ninjatrader/Strategy Desk
Broker: Various
Trading: TF/NQ/ES/Stocks
 
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SteveH View Post
Whichever timeframe one chooses, I would submit that once the context picking skills are good, it's easier to win with lower winning pcts (40%-55%) in the long-term because that is closer to the game under which institutions play. When a game drops below 50/50, it sparks emotions in at-homers that the game is possibly failing. It leads to wider stops which ruins the edge (lower winning pct trading methodologies require *tighter* stops!).

@SteveH. Great post. I entirely agree with the part above. As K rightly pointed out transaction costs dramatically affect intraday trader bottom lines to a point that the edge must be significant to turn a profit. My estimate is on average intraday traders need their winning % to be 60% to cover these transaction costs. Intraday scalpers can be upward of 70%. As a swing trader I'm sitting at 1-2% which straight off the bat gives me an advantage.

The other point is the smaller the timeframe the fiercer the competition. It's easier to be gamed, statistical probabilities become within the reach of advanced algos and you are playing in the pool with sharks who have been trading professionally in the intraday timeframe for 20+ years.

Cheers
DJ

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  #32 (permalink)
Munich, Germany
 
 
Posts: 285 since Apr 2012
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Been out of my QMF short at 86.40 with a profit and wait now for the big move. So far (i.e. since the beginning of this thread) my QM trades are about breakeven due to the stupid flipping at the beginning. Waiting for the big move to overcompensate that.

I am flat NGH too and not so sure anymore about my long scenario. The next two weeks will be crucial for the mid-term direction. Had my largest losses so far in NG and wait for the big move here as well similar to QM.

By the way, my Soybean trade is my best one so far (and the only one where I have been right, right from the start). Still long here. Will add on pull-backs.

On Silver waiting for consolidation to finish. No position currently.

EDIT: Trying a short in NGH at 3.508. Looks like my original scenario (break of trend line) is playing out.

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  #33 (permalink)
Munich, Germany
 
 
Posts: 285 since Apr 2012
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Short now again QM (QMH) at 86.625.

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  #34 (permalink)
Munich, Germany
 
 
Posts: 285 since Apr 2012
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Shorted Wheat at 813.5 (March contract). Breakout of channel occurred.

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  #35 (permalink)
Munich, Germany
 
 
Posts: 285 since Apr 2012
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Went long NQ March ctrct at 2690.50 based on reverse H&S. Same on ES, but trade more attract. on NQ

Target on ES March ctrct is 1505

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  #36 (permalink)
Munich, Germany
 
 
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Out of my QM short with a loss at 88.15 (March ctrct). Wait for further development.

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  #37 (permalink)
Munich, Germany
 
 
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Out of my NQ longs from earlier today with a loss at 2675 (March). Did not feel right. Will re-enter if high of week is pierced again.

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  #38 (permalink)
Munich, Germany
 
 
Posts: 285 since Apr 2012
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Went short in Sugar at 18.46. Breakout of pennant on weekly chart.

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  #39 (permalink)
Munich, Germany
 
 
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Long silver at 32.32 (March) near upward trend line on weekly chart

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  #40 (permalink)
Munich, Germany
 
 
Posts: 285 since Apr 2012
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Took part of my profits in NG (March) at 3.357. Let the rest run. Will see lower prices in the next weeks.

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May 24, 2013


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