Swing Trading Futures

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Out of Lean Hog short at 88.275 with a loss. Reversal day today with high volume. Maybe it's still part of the flag but who knows...

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Covered short position in Swiss Franc Futures at 1.0840 with a loss.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Covered Cocoa short position at 2182 (March) with a profit.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Added to Nasdaq long position from Jan 8th (entry @ 2718.50) at 2739.75.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Long Lean Hog at 90.025 (April). Previous short scenario (triangle breakout, see tweet/post on Jan 9) failed.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Covered short in Orange Juice at 120.40 (March) with a loss.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Long Soybean at 1461 (March). Breakout of triangle and retracement.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

karoshiman

Long Soybean at 1461 (March). Breakout of triangle and retracement.

Here's the chart.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Covered Long in Lean Hog at 89.475 (March). Trade was premature. Waiting for triangle breakout on daily.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Added to Cotton long position at 81.85 (first entry at 77.38, see tweet/post on Jan 16th).

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Out of Nasdaq long positions at 2719.25 (March) with a loss.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Went long in YM at 13831 (March). Same idea as initially with Nasdaq.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Short Australian Dollar at 1.0355 (March). Breakout of wedge. Bounce off upper border of triangle on weekly.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Covered 50% of my short position in Australian Dollar at 1.0285 with a profit.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Long in Crude Oil (mini) at 96.80. Strong reversal yesterday after retracement.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Long British Pound at 1.5785 (March). This weeks high just been taken out. Looks like move back into triangle.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Covered Crude Oil long at 96.05 (March) with a loss.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Covered British Pound long at 1.5704 (March) with a loss.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Trying a long in Euro FX at 1.3386 (March). Uptrend intact, entry near support.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Covered short in Australian Dollar at 1.0212 (March) with a profit.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Covered Soybean long at 1414 (March) with a loss.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Added further to Cotton long position at 80.94 (March).

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Covered today's Cotton long at 80.79 (March) with a small loss. Want to reduce risk here...

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Covered Euro FX long at 1.3348 (March) with a loss.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Covered YM long position at 13908 (March) with a profit. Watch out, might re-enter again long, if up move continues...

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Back in YM again long at 13960 (March).

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Added to YM long at 13939 (March)

Long NQ at 2766.25 (March)

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Short again Australian Dollar at 1.0305 (March).

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Covered 50% of short position in Australian Dollar at 1.0277 with a profit. That was fast...

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Covered remaining 50% of short position in Australian Dollar at 1.0314 with a profit on overall position, thanks to early profit taking.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Long again in Euro FX at 1.3367 (March). Same idea as before.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Out of Euro FX long at 1.3365 (March) at about breakeven.

Added to Cotton long at 82.94 (March).

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Out of YM long at 13844 and NQ long at 2727 with a loss.

Short now YM at 13844. All March contracts.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Out of all Cotton long positions at 81.92 (March) with a profit.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Shorted more YM. Now average entry at 13852.75 (March).

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Out of YM short at 13947 (March) with a loss.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Long now in YM from 13,907 (March).

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Long Japanese Yen at 1.0648 (March). Looks like opening gap is being closed. Intermediate bottom forming? (high vol.)

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Cover long in Jap. Yen at 1.0714 (March) with a profit.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Out of YM long pos. at 13,855 (March) with a loss.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Long in Corn at 687.875 (May). Potential double bottom.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Covered 50% of Long in Corn at 698.125 (May) with a profit.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Short YM at 13,980 (March). Downward trend channel could develop here. Usually not my style, but I take a shot.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Added to YM short at 14,059 (March). Stupid early entry this afternoon... cobbler, stick to your last...

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Covered long pos. in Corn at 703.5 (May) with a profit.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Covered YM short pos. at 14,101 (March) with a loss.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Trying a long now in YM at 14,107 (March).

Big Mike · (login for full post details)

You should re-evaluate your journal.

Anyone can print out a trade report or look at a broker statement that shows how many and when you entered. That is what you are posting.

The journal as you have it today is worthless in my opinion.

What you should be focusing on is entering the "why". Why did you go long? Why go short? Why now? You don't need to write a lot, just a few words to convey your decision. Same for exits. Why exit now?

Then you can go back and review this information at a later date to find patterns in your behavior and learn and improve.

Mike

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Out of YM long pos. at 14,057 (March) with a loss as recent confluence zone has been pierced.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Big Mike

You should re-evaluate your journal.

Anyone can print out a trade report or look at a broker statement that shows how many and when you entered. That is what you are posting.

The journal as you have it today is worthless in my opinion.

What you should be focusing on is entering the "why". Why did you go long? Why go short? Why now? You don't need to write a lot, just a few words to convey your decision. Same for exits. Why exit now?

Then you can go back and review this information at a later date to find patterns in your behavior and learn and improve.

Mike

Thank you for your feedback, Mike.

I admit that the last posts did not have much value, as I was a bit in a hurry and I always try to post as fast as I can after I've entered a trade.

But it is not true that this is the case with the majority of my posts. If you review this thread, you will see that I attach a chart and a brief explanation of why I've entered with most of my posts. If this is not enough, from your point of view, please let me know.

Only in special situations, in particular, when I deem my initial scenario (the posted chart + explanation) as being wrong, I trade the other direction. Hence, the missing explanation.

This is also the case with my recent YM trades. The current situation of the equity markets are not so straight forward as far as I see it. Many traders were short due to different reasons, but markets still (or, also due to that) went further higher.

Regarding the exits, you are 100% right. The reason that I don't explain these further is simply because these are not based on specific levels, but more on my "feel". I can't "improve" on that regarding my posts.

Anyway, I was thinking that anyone who is interested to know more, can ask me, as this is not a one-way road. Up to now, that did not happen.

Please let me know what you think about the above, as I appreciate your input.

Regards,
k

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Equity markets currently building a major top, IMO. Strong sell-off into the close. Broadening form. on YM (today only stop run). (attached DJIA chart)

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

ES in downward trend.

NDX broke trend line.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Based on the above again short in YM from 14,037 (March). This is not a Deja Vu...

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Out of YM short pos. at 14,244 with a loss. Long from 14,251 due to flag on hourly today (continuation indicated).

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Out of YM long pos. at 14,378 (March) with a profit.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Long again in YM at 14,310 (June) after consolid. near trend line on 60 min. chart. Good risk/reward.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Out of YM long pos. at 14,293 (June) with a loss. Trend line broken. New lows overnight.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Long in YM at 14,363 (June). Same idea as before.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Out of YM long pos. at 14,345 (June). Last intraday swing low pierced.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Re-enter long in YM at 14,363 (June). Was too afraid of the swing low.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Out of YM long pos. at 14,333 with a loss.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Okay, re-enter YM long at 14,351... seems the down move was only a stop-run. Price back above last intraday confluence zone with high volume.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Covered 50% of my long pos. in YM at 14,458 with a profit to be on the safe side.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Covered remaining 50% of long pos. in YM @ 14,478 with a profit. Upside B/O out of cons. area failed. Support at 14,480 should have held.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Short YM from 14,445 as most recent support at ca. 14,450 (April 1 + 3) has been pierced. Next support at ca. 14,300.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Been kicked out of YM short pos. at 14,525 with a loss.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Long YM at 14,649. Pull-back and bounce-off support area.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Kicked out of long YM at 14,590 with a loss. That was quick... Might re-enter again later...

Harrison · (login for full post details)

karoshiman

Kicked out of long YM at 14,590 with a loss. That was quick... Might re-enter again later...

How many ticks of loss did you get in such case?

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Harrison

How many ticks of loss did you get in such case?

I assume you relate to slippage. I had experienced none so far in YM.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Trying another long in YM at 14,670. Price seems to have overcome the 14,610 to 14,660 confluence zone.

Harrison · (login for full post details)

karoshiman

I assume you relate to slippage. I had experienced none so far in YM.

No, in previous message you wrote you got a loss.
So, I asked you which tick size of loss you got?

Or there is missunderstanding....

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Harrison

No, in previous message you wrote you got a loss.
So, I asked you which tick size of loss you got?

Or there is missunderstanding....

As I post all of my trades here, you can see in the respective previous post (#167) that I've entered the long at 14,649. In post #168 I've mentioned that I've been kicked out at 14,590.

14,649 - 14,590 = 59 points loss or 295$ per contract.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Stopped out of YM long at 14,603. Second failed long trade in YM in a row... Flipped here to short... Is the bull run over?

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Covered short in YM at 14,512 with a profit.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Reason for my short covering: trend line (not the beginning confluence as shown in the chart; was just busy and couldn't post it earlier)

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Short again in YM at 14,543. Upmove outside of overnight confluence zone seems to have failed.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Covered 50% of long in YM at 14,498 with a profit just to be on the safe side. Stop for remainder at 14,560.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Changed my mind... covered remaining 50% at 14,512 with a profit. Thought it gets down faster...

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Long in YM at 14,464. Price bounced off from yesterday's low. ES making also new intraday highs.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Covered long in YM at 14,476 with a profit as I do not want to hold over the weekend.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Long in YM at 14,467. Wedge pattern in YM + same in ES but with a breakout + ES at upward TL (good entry point for long). Assumption: YM follows and we will see a breakout soon.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Covered YM long pos. at 14,642 with a profit.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Short ES at 1573.50. Still overall bearish (see earlier comments). Looks like a downward trend line is being established here.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Out of ES short at 1581 with a loss.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

If someone is following this thread, he or she will have noticed that I have somewhat changed my trading style recently.

Whereas I began this thread as a "swing trading" journal and held positions for a few days to several weeks (the latter would be better characterized as "position trading"), I recently started to look at price movements taking between a few hours to 2-3 days and tried to benefit from these instead of holding positions for longer periods.

When I looked at my trades I've realized that my entries and exits were pretty poor. So I've started to try to figure out how to improve these. However, during this process I came to the conclusion, why not try to benefit from these shorter-term moves altogether (now you see, what a journal can be good for...

... assuming that my trading will be more successful in the future than in the last few months

). This might deserve the label "swing trading" also more than my former trading style.

Another change is that I now try to focus on one instrument only, whereas earlier I've looked for opportunities in various instruments. Although I think that there are opportunities in other futures markets as well, for me, equity index futures are the "easiest" when it comes to assessing potential movements within the next 1-3 days. Hence, I will focus on these for the time being.

The last trades in this regard were with the e-mini Dow, but I will start to trade ES as well (... and maybe focus on it completely).

Another change is that I post my account size, in order to provide some more information for anyone who is interested.

My current account size is 18,150$ but I plan to cash out a bit and reduce it to between 10,000$ and 12,000$, which is sufficient to trade 1 ES contract, in my opinion, at least for my holding periods / "typical" stops.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Summary of my last trade:

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Short ES from 1576.75. Break of upward trend line and failed breakout of short downward trend line.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Covered short with a loss and flipped to long at 1581.25.

Looks like my short scenario is not working out. Price seems to obey the previously established upward trend.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

karoshiman

Covered short with a loss...

Trade summary

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Covered ES long pos. at 1591.50 with a profit.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Short ES at 1584,75. Break of trend line.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Covered ES short at 1577.50 with a profit.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Short again ES at 1581.50. Price retested trend line break area and turned down again.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

Been kicked out of short pos. in ES at 1589 with a loss.

karoshiman · (login for full post details)

What a move after NFP... I was yesterday several times close to taking a short near/after cash close with a similar reasoning as the last trade (retest of trend line). However, wanted to wait for ON session and NFP in particular as I thought, this might be the safer trade... man, was I right!

Seeing this aggressive move up, I guess, many took the short before NFP... the big question now is: Will the uptrend, which we saw in the 1st quarter continue? (i.e. no sell in May?

)