Wouldn't it be nice to get all your points with just one trade? Well, that is the dream of all traders. So, while I am waiting for my dream to come true, I just keep scalping a living by pulling the handle on the cash machine. Today I had my speakers on and the Ninja cash chime went on and my son (6 years old) asked me what was that. I said it was the sound of money. So, now he wants me to get him some new transformers toys....sigh...
One of the hardest things to do is accept that what you have been doing just is not working and you are failing as a trader. I do not mean in life, or as a person. Just that your trading approach may suck a bit. So, if you are going to get help, then the first thing to do is not bring your trading junk to the table. I mean if what you were doing just is not working, then you may have to start over. The more past poor trading garbage you try to hold onto will prevent your ability to accept and learn something new. So, if you ask for help, first empty your cup.
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My auto trader is almost done. With some help from that I am looking to increase my goal to $650 a day with an avearge trade of $40.
Here's the latest. Today the AT actually sucked and was down $500 when I checked back. Had to do my discretionary thing to get it back into the black. Seems the best CL moves were in the afternoon and the AT got the morning chop.
Hey Ed, I continously follow your blog and your consistency blows my mind! Really amazing!
I have a question about trading to your daily goal:
Lets say you have a daily goal of averaging 20 ticks per day, trading 2 contracts (10 ticks per contract). How do you go at that? Do you trade until you have reached 20 ticks and then stop tradign for that day? What happens on losing days which will occur? When do you stop there? Do you have a daily risk limit as well?
If I want to average 20 ticks per day, would it make sense to set the daily target to 30 ticks f.e.? Would appreciate your response!
First I have to consider whether the instrument I am trading is capable of granting me 20 ticks per day with reasonable risk and draw down? Regardless of the daily goal I would not want to surpass a risk reward of 2:1 per trade. This would mean I could recover within 2 trades. So, now the consideration is what is the statistical probability of the instrument I am trading of having enough sequential winners using my trading strategies? What is the draw down potential per failure on the statistically based sequential losers? Am I risking 20 ticks to make 20 ticks? Is that reasonable for the instrument, the time of day, the trade entry location, and the strategy I employed on this trade?
My daily loss limit is 1:1. I hit goal or I hit target, then I stop.
For each trader how they can handle loss is pretty personal. For me, my daily goal is $600 or loss of $600. I trade multiple instruments. This may mean 8 ticks on one instrument, 10 on another, and 20 on another or some combination. I set the daily goal then I divide that up among the instruments and what they are capable of giving me on the trade entry. My first target is all I am really concerned with. I have trained myself to get to first target with a very high statistical probability. Once you know what that percentage is, then using leverage is what will work best to get you to your goal, and you will also know what kind of draw down to expect. Also, once you know what you can expect and what you are capable of based on your statistical performance history, then having a runner will get you into a position to capitalize on any extended moves.
Lastly, keep in mind that what you want and what the market and you are capable of doing are two very different things. We all start with what we want, but eventually we change that to accepting what we are capable of and then that becomes what we want. This shift in thinking really helps you towards becoming consistent in your trading and thinking. I believe you have to grow into what you want, but in the beginning you have to accept what you can do, and do that every day. Your account will tell you when to want more.
If you could be more specific then maybe I could provide a better answer.
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I've read this thread with interest and read your blog.
Something I'm having trouble with is this idea that it is easier to be profitable when trading multiple lots. I understand the strategy you describe (i.e. when trading 2 lots banking some profit on the first lot, move the stop to break even and try to let it run a bit with a trailing stop), but I fail to see why trading multiple lots can statistically help with profitablity.
You state above that "Trading a 1:1 is tough unless you have better than 51% to the target" - but you have to have an overall success rate of 51%+ with any strategy.
I'm probably being dumb, but please can you explain why trading multiple lots has a statistical advantage...