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chungp2's Trading Journal

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  #1 (permalink)
 chungp2 
Hartford, CT
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 123 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 50 given, 34 received

Hello all,

First I have to start off by thanking all the folks that took the time (and are still taking the time) to help others in their trading goals and endeavors. I realize no one is getting paid to help us and that it is purely through generosity and kindness that the fine folks of this forum are sharing their wisdom. It has been a tremendous help to me.

That being said, I don't really have much to offer (as I am still a beginner) other than this journal. So, hopefully someone down the line will find some usefulness in my entries.

My ongoing goal for this journal is to:
  • take public accountability for my decisions
  • share my thoughts on the market
  • document my reasons for taking trades
  • document my psychology during trades
  • celebrate successes and share my failures

THE DETAILS:

Account:
I will first start off with a sim account of $25,000USD (which is the amount I will use to create an account). I will continue to trade this until either I blow this account out, or double it. I'm in no particular rush in seeing profits. I'm actually more interested in sticking to my trading plan and managing risk. I will be using a $4.50USD commission for each contract.


Risk Plan / Trade Management:
  • Risk no more than 1% of total account per trade.
  • Maximum of 5 trades per day

The Charts:
  • Composite Daily MP and VP
  • 10000 Volume Chart w/ VWAP, Delta Momentum and Stochastic
  • 4 Range Trend Chart w/moving averages and Delta Momentum
  • 4 Range Footprint Chart

The Entry Signal:
  • Regular or hidden divergences at market generated levels (either above value for going short, or below value for going long)
  • Volume shift @ market generated levels using Footprint

The Exit:
  • Hitting my stop of 5 ticks
  • Using VP/MP generated levels as profit targets

That's the plan in a nutshell. Some of you who are familiar with L2ST may see a lot of similarities in my charts when you compare it theirs. I have never been in their trading room, however the videos that they have around youtube explaining their methodology make logical sense to me. I understand all of the indicators that I am using, I understand the signals that they generate and why they are generated. To me, that is all I need to understand why I enter into a trade.

Anyway, thats it for the intro...time to get down and dirty.

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  #3 (permalink)
 chungp2 
Hartford, CT
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 123 since Jun 2012
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Here are some screenshots of my setup, so anyone following me can understand why I enter into a trade.:

Pic 1:
The left chart shows a 10,000 volume chart with:
  • VWAP with 1st and 2nd SD levels
  • previous day VP levels
  • developing VP
  • Average of Delta Momentum
  • Stochastics
If there is a divergence in price and the bottom three indicators, then I move onto the lower right-hand chart.


The lower right-hand chart shows a 4 range trend chart with:
  • some moving averages
  • Volume Profile
  • Delta Momentum
Those who know Perry's method will find this chart familiar. I have observed that when the bars diverge from the 8EMA at a more than normal distance, is will retrace back to either the 8EMA or 20EMA, and sometimes even further. So on this chart, I am looking for a divergence in the bar from the 8EMA, as well as a delta momentum divergence. Basically this serves the same purpose as the 10,000 volume chart, but is more granular and allows me to judge whether an entry is worth considering. For example, if the most current bar has not diverged enough away from the 8EMA, then I will usually pass on the signal and wait for a better one.

The upper right chart is my footprint entry chart. If I get divergences on the 10,000 volume chart, and divergences on the 4 range trend chart @ a market generate level, I then look at the footprint for validation and confirmation. Basically all I'm looking for is rejection at that price area. For example, in a range, if I am looking for a bounce off a support level, then I will look for the offer being lifted @ 3 difference prices in a row on the same bar. If I get that, then I enter into the trade with 3 contracts (all in/scale out).

My stop is based on my risk allowance being no more than 1% of my total account ($25,000USD). So a 5 tick stop on three contracts plus commission equals -$201.50. I can live with that.

The only profit target that I have set in stone is the first contract. I put that at 5 ticks. The other two I set at VP generated levels, or VWAP levels.


Pic 2:
Just shows the bigger picture. The chart on the left is the Market Profile TPO chart, and the one on the right is a daily volume composite. I just use those to know where we are in the market and to get an idea of important levels within a swing.

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  #4 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Congrats on starting a journal.

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  #5 (permalink)
 chungp2 
Hartford, CT
 
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The RTH session was pretty much a mirror image of the 9/17 Monday session. VA and POC were just slightly higher, but overall the market seems to be in balance.

I saw two different opportunities for entries during the day, both at the 9/17 high. I had divergences on all of my charts, however, the footprints did not confirm what I was hypothesizing. The moves that I had envisioned in my mind did come to fruition, and had I entered, would have made all of my targets. But, whats done is done and I did not take any trades today.

A couple of charts to show what I was looking at today.

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  #6 (permalink)
 chungp2 
Hartford, CT
 
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To anyone who uses footprint to enter in on trades, I would love to hear feedback in what they look for @ their areas to do business. While I didn't take the trades that I wanted to today based on what I was seeing in the footprint, perhaps someone with more experience would have.

Again, anyone with experience, I am all ears...

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  #7 (permalink)
 chungp2 
Hartford, CT
 
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I expanded the foot print chart to a 5 range, just to experiment. In looking at the 5 range, both bars would have signaled an entry for me at the two areas where I was interested in entering in a trade.

I will continue to use the 4 range as my entry chart. But at the end of each RTH session, I will look back at my entry points with the 5 range to see if there are any discrepancies. If I continue to see contrasting signals on the 4 range and the 5 range footprints over the next month or so, I will consider changing my entry chart. Until then, I will stick to my plan.

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  #8 (permalink)
 chungp2 
Hartford, CT
 
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Trading: ES
 
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Only took one trade today...unfortunately it was a loser. Probably could have been a winner with better profit targets. The pictures should tell the story.

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  #9 (permalink)
 chungp2 
Hartford, CT
 
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I did reach my first PT of 5 ticks. At that point, I thought I was good, so I move my stop 1 tick in my favor, thinking that it should reach the developing POC, which was my 2nd PT. If price moved back to my stop, then my hypothesis was wrong and I would get out with a minimal loss.

Price did move back and I got stopped out on my two remaining contracts.

The remainder or the day I didn't see any more opportunities at any significant reference levels.

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 chungp2 
Hartford, CT
 
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Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES
 
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This is the 5R footprint chart with my entry being the last bar shown......bid v offer looks a little iffy @ 1451.25.

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 chungp2 
Hartford, CT
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
Trading: ES
 
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-Took only one trade...again it was a loser...but a small one.

-Reached PT1, just barely, but the last two contracts got stopped out at -4 ticks.

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 chungp2 
Hartford, CT
 
Experience: Beginner
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Pic one shows the first contract being filled.

Pic two shows the last two contracts being stopped out

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  #13 (permalink)
 chungp2 
Hartford, CT
 
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5 Range shows entry as well

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 chungp2 
Hartford, CT
 
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Took two trades today...both losers.

The first trade I took according to my plan. Again, the first contract reached its PT, but the last two got stopped out. I probably need to work on my trade management.

The second trade...I did not take according to my plan...I jumped the gun and took an entry that did not fullfill my requirements --> three successive prices in a row in order flow. I saw two prices and hit the buy button. Dumb move. Live and learn.

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 chungp2 
Hartford, CT
 
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Trade 1 outcome

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 chungp2 
Hartford, CT
 
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Trade 2

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 chungp2 
Hartford, CT
 
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More losers today...a bit of frustration, but I just gotta remember that this is a learning experience and that losing is a part of the game. *Mistakes and failures will bring me to a new level of understanding*

Took three trades today...the first trade fullfilled all of my requirements for entry, but it did get stopped out on its last 2 lots. The 2nd trade didn't display an obvious divergence...should have sat out on the 2nd trade. However, it did reach its first PT, but then got stopped out on its last 2 lots.

The last trade I took went straight to a loss. To be honest, I took this trade emotionally...I was frustrated that my trades kept reaching their first PTs but not the 2nd or 3rd targets. I should have quit for the day realizing that I was emotionally compromised.

Anyway, after realizing I was frustrated, I decided to walk away and spend some time with the wife-to-be, which was good...she makes me laugh and keeps me in a good mood (most of the time)

Anyway on to the charts

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  #18 (permalink)
 chungp2 
Hartford, CT
 
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This one reached its 1st PT, but stopped out on its 2nd and 3rd

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  #19 (permalink)
 chungp2 
Hartford, CT
 
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Emotional trade

I don't have an end screen shot for this trade, but it did get stopped out pretty quick...

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  #20 (permalink)
 chungp2 
Hartford, CT
 
Experience: Beginner
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Journaling is tough when your trading sucks...lol

Its quite obvious that divergences work, and work quite often (when reviewing past charts), however, the spots I decide to enter are just the wrong spots/reference points to enter in on.

Anyway, 2 losers again...both stopped out on all three contracts...decided to stop after that.

Only spread sheet today of my losses.

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  #21 (permalink)
 Devil Man 
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@chungp2

Hey man are you using a fixed stop on every trade of 5 ticks?...or do you adjust it according to conditions?

great journal keep it up

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  #22 (permalink)
 chungp2 
Hartford, CT
 
Experience: Beginner
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Trading: ES
 
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Posts: 123 since Jun 2012
Thanks: 50 given, 34 received


Devil Man View Post
@chungp2

Hey man are you using a fixed stop on every trade of 5 ticks?...or do you adjust it according to conditions?

great journal keep it up

Thanks...I'm using a stop of 5 ticks mainly for risk management. I'm still having a lot of trouble reading order flow, so until I get it down, I'm gonna let my stop define whether or not I am wrong. I'm hoping someday that I can get to the point of knowing whether to stay in or out of the trade based on order flow and not my predefined stop.

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  #23 (permalink)
 chungp2 
Hartford, CT
 
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Went back and decided to screen shot my trades for 9/26...here they are

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  #24 (permalink)
 chungp2 
Hartford, CT
 
Experience: Beginner
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Trading: ES
 
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Placing this self reminder here to test and see if my data feed is as good as DTN's when Big Mike posts up the gom files for september...I need to compare them to see if my data feed can be trusted, especially since I am using delta.

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 Big Mike 
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chungp2 View Post
Placing this self reminder here to test and see if my data feed is as good as DTN's when Big Mike posts up the gom files for september...I need to compare them to see if my data feed can be trusted, especially since I am using delta.

Who is your data feed?

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  #26 (permalink)
 chungp2 
Hartford, CT
 
Experience: Beginner
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I'm currently using CQG through a demo account with AMP

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  #27 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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chungp2 View Post
I'm currently using CQG through a demo account with AMP

From the conclusions reached here, I would not be concerned with data accuracy:


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  #28 (permalink)
 chungp2 
Hartford, CT
 
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Thanks @Big Mike...its good to know that there shouldn't be an discrepancies. I appreciate the analysis that others have done...probably still gonna compare because I just need the comfort of seeing it with my own eyes.


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From the conclusions reached here, I would not be concerned with data accuracy:


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 chungp2 
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A couple of quick observations in my trading strategy/plan. I have been on a pretty good losing run since I have started my journal. I guess that is not a big surprise considering I am still a beginner. However, my journaling is revealing something interesting in my trade management and PT approach...I realize I only have a couple of days under my belt, but I have added some other metrics in my excel sheet to keep track of.

Thus far I have been using a 3 lot all-in/scale-out method. I am seeing that I am not having too much trouble getting to the first target most of the time. The 2nd and 3rd lots however are just not getting to their targets. Probably due do to the fact that I am still not reading the market correctly. This approach thus far has netted me -$1048.00.

Now, had I been using an all-in/all-out method, with the same PT of 5 ticks on all three contracts, I would be at +$414.00. Not much...but a whole lot better than being -$1048.00.

I will continue to do a 3 lot all-in/scale-out for the next few weeks, but in my spreadsheet, I will keep track of all-in/all-out metrics. I also changed the MAE to "MAE before 1st PT" to see how much draw down I suffer before my first profit target is reached. I am doing this so I can optimize my stop loss later on down the road when I have enough trades to statistically justify adjusting my stop loss.

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 chungp2 
Hartford, CT
 
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My trades today...only two trades.

First one reached its first PT, but stopped out on its last two.

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 chungp2 
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Trade 2 - This time around I put two contracts on the first PT. The last contract got stopped out. My first positive trade...lol.

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  #32 (permalink)
 jw8051 
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Thank you for posting this
I thought I was a "beginner"... I see I have more homework to do... Is there a "sippy-cup" for my level?? My goodness do I need to do more research before I jump in.

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 chungp2 
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I didn't really feel like trading today...but took one trade below value (or what I thought was below value). Again, first contract got to its PT, but last two got stopped out. I am continuing to keep track of my method as well as my AI/AO scenario. The two plans continue to show a vast difference in profitability.

I am getting the feeling that I am reading order flow pretty well for the entry (at least for smaller scalp type moves). As for reading the market in general, I am miles away...gotta hang in there and continue to interpret what I am seeing as it unfolds.

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 chungp2 
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A little late with the journal...had to see family, so didn't have much time to update.

Took two trades this day based on my setups. First one was a winner (legit winner). Met all of my PT's. As the trade was unfolding, I was adjusting the PT's based on the moving averages on my trend chart. First PT was met no problem, same with the second (which I had set to the 20EMA). The last contract I just managed myself and decided to take profits since it seemed like at the time that price was going to bounce off of the 20EMA.

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 chungp2 
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The second trade ended up being a loser. Once again, the trade reached its first PT no problem, but got stopped out on its last two.

On this trade, the price at 1447.25 of the bar I was watching had bid and offer being very even. However the two prices above had the buyers lifting the offer. I usually pass on this as the order flow is not displaying enough strong conviction in my eyes, but the bar also had a "b" shape volume profile. I decided to pull the trigger based on that.

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  #36 (permalink)
 Cloudy 
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I think you're doing great. Catching the bounces off the 2nd std dev back to the vwap. 1 to 3 pts is good scalping already on the ES especially since these are the toughest days to trade with HFT all over the place. Eventually you can get better on new trends and trend continuation entries. Thanks.

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 chungp2 
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I took two trades. Same ole story. PT met on first lot, then stopped out on the last two.

I gotta say that after all of the trades that I have taken so far, the 20EMA is a damn strong moving average (something I already knew, but seeing order flow react to it is very interesting). Whenever I fade a move, the 20EMA holds up very well. It bounces off it enough to stop me out on my last two lots and then some. Sometimes I feel like reversing my position at the 20EMA or when I get stopped out. I haven't done that obviously (and don't plan to since it's not in my trading plan), but it's tempting sometimes.

Any way...first trade I took today was "in value." Probably wasn't the best trade location, but all other signals lined up.

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 chungp2 
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Trade two was sort of a fade/trend trade. Price was reverting to the mean (20EMA), while at the same time showing regular bearish divergence. Order flow confirmed the entry and I went short.

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 chungp2 
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I made some progress on my AI/SO (all-in / scale-out) plan, as well as my AI/AO (all-in / all-out) plan. Both plans ended up in the green, which was encouraging.

The first trade I took came right before the 10:00am numbers came out (I went long). In hindsight it probably wasn't a smart move, as news can cause all kinds of volatility. In this case however, it was in my favor. I will have to be more cautious in the future. These kinds of trades can go in either direction. Had this gone the other way, I would have been furious at myself for making such a dumb move. Anyway, I was fairly conservative with both my first and second targets, first one being the 5 tick that I always use, and the second at the 20EMA. As soon as the second target was hit, I put my stop at breakeven, which was hit.

My second trade got stopped out pretty quick (went short). The footprint bar I was watching had three prices in a row that supported my hypothesis, however, the bar had not closed yet (which is something that I usually do). Once I entered, price went in the opposite direction and I got stopped out. Turns outs my hypothesis was WAYYYYY off, and price continued to go higher. Glad I got out.

My third trade I went short and met my first and second targets AGAIN! After the second target (which was VWAP) was hit, I was looking at the developing VP and was kind of noticing that we were at a LVN and it seemed to act as support. I wanted to exit my third target at that point, but decided to let the trade play out. At that point I had moved my stop to breakeven, so I wasn't too worried. I eventually got stopped out. Kind of regret not getting out earlier, but its nice to know that I am getting more comfortable with market generated level (or at least I think I am).

My fourth trade was a straight loser (went short). All the signals were there, but just no dice this time around.

My last trade (short again) was not too long after my fourth trade. This was my biggest winner thus far. Met my first target with not much effort. The second target however, I had set to the VWAP. Which was 5 points away (20 ticks). I was a bit concerned with setting the target there, for there was a huge LVN which I thought was going to act as resistance. However, once we entered that LVN area, the price popped down fairly easily. I'm guessing a lot of people had stops placed in those areas and it just fueled the move down. At that point I moved my stop up to breakeven, and had my third target at the VWAP 1st SD low. Price never got to that area, but an interesting thing that I noticed was that there was a bullish divergence signaling an up move. I probably should have exited my last contract when I saw that, but decided to let things play out and moved my stop past breakeven. I got stopped out on my last contract for 2 points.

I will continue to place my PTs at market generated levels, but at the same time look for divergences hinting at moves that may push price in the opposite direction.

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  #40 (permalink)
 chungp2 
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I took a stab at entering in on hidden divergences today. Not too much luck. Took two trades today. Should've been three...I'll explain more below

In my first trade, price was being supported by the developing VPOC. There was a significant amount of volume being traded and I had all of my signals to enter in on the trade. As a bonus, price was at the 20EMA, so I thought moving average traders were really leaning on that to hold. I entered in, and pretty much as soon as I entered, price went against me. I had my stop at my usual 5 ticks, but the VPOC was 3 ticks below my entry. So I decided that if price broke the VPOC, I would exit a bit earlier than my 5 ticks and get out with a smaller loss. Price did end up breaking the VPOC, and I went out with a loss of 4 ticks. Price did travel further than my usual 5 tick stop, so this time around it was the right exit to make.

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  #41 (permalink)
 chungp2 
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Trade number two was taken not too far behind trade one.

Once again, I had my signals in place and took the trade. First PT was met, but last two were stopped out.

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 chungp2 
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A trade I should have taken...but didn't.

All signals were in place. I had order flow confirmation, but for some reason, I just didn't pull the trigger in time. I was hesitant, and was waiting for more confirmation. I don't know why I did this, as thus far I haven't had a problem losing in a trade. Anyhow, Murphy's law kicked in and the trade shot off in the direction that I anticipated. Pure frustration, as this was a missed opportunity to enter in at a good location. Everything was a "go" in my plan, but I didn't take the trade.

One thing I'm glad I didn't do was chase the trade, even though it continued to head up, I don't want to ingrain habits outside of my trading plan.

Anyway, after seeing this shoot upwards, I decided to call it a day.

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 chungp2 
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I decided to take a more proactive approach to my trade management during my first trade (I went short). I got all of my signals to enter into the trade. Once I was in, my first PT was met fairly quickly (vwap). I moved my stop in my favor one tick. A couple of minutes later, my next PT was hit (vwap 1st SD low). At that point I put my stop at break even. As the trade was unfolding, I noticed that there was regular bullish divergence showing on my charts (10000 and trend charts). I decided to move my stop 5 ticks above the low of the last range bar (to lock in profit), and moved my last PT further down to basically let it ride. I wasn't exactly sure where to place the last PT to be honest. I was gonna let the market take me out at my revised stop or take a ride downward into more profit (to who knows where). Ends up I was taken out at my revised stop, which was OK since all three lots ended up in the green. Turns out later that price continued further down in the direction that I was anticipating. A little frustrating to see that happen, but then again, there was no 100% sure way for me to know at the time it was going to go down further. The only thing I can think of is, at the time when I saw the regular bullish divergence, the last bar didn't have order flow confirmation signaling a potential reversal. Exiting trades/trade management is something that I will need to continue to work on.

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  #44 (permalink)
 chungp2 
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Trade two ended up being a small loser (went long). Smallest loser I had thus far. Again, I took a more proactive approach to my trade management. First PT was met with little resistance, at which point I moved my stop one tick in my favor (for a 4 tick stop). I had my second target at the VWAP, which was pretty close to the developing VPOC. I was debating on whether or not to put the 2nd PT at the VPOC, since it was a little more conservative and easier to meet. Price ends up trading at the VPOC and turns around. I was 1 tick away from getting filled on my 2nd PT and moving my stop to breakeven for a risk free trade. As I was watching price come back down, I was watching the DOM and the footprints to see if price would come back to my stop of 4 ticks. When it got within 1 tick of my stop, I decided to exit the trade based on my hypothesis that there were very few buyers holding price up and that my stop was going to be hit and then some. My hypothesis was right and it was the right exit to make. I got out on my last two contract for -3 ticks (-6 ticks total).

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  #45 (permalink)
 chungp2 
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AI/SO and AI/AO were in the green. Feels goooooooood

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  #46 (permalink)
 chungp2 
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Took three trades.

The first trade I took came off of a pretty big down move. It looked like at the time that sellers were getting exhausted based on the delta momentum divergence. Order flow confirmed and I entered into the trade. I placed PT's based on VWAP level (seen in pic). Once again, first PT met, but last two stopped out.

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  #47 (permalink)
 chungp2 
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Second trade got to its first PT, but did not get filled. Ended up getting stopped out on all three lots. That was extremely frustrating. If I was doing AI/AO on this trade, I would have probably moved my stop to breakeven at that point.

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  #48 (permalink)
 chungp2 
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My third trade could have been managed a lot better, but it ended up profitable, so I won't beat myself up too much. First PT met quick. I set the 2nd PT based on what I was seeing on the VP. Between 1438.25 and 1438, there was over a 10,000 contract difference. So I hypothesized that there would be some temporary support at that area. I set my 2nd PT at that area and was filled. I was right in my hypothesis. The mistake that I made was not getting out at that same spot with my third target. I moved my stop to breakeven, and wanted to see if price would move down further. It didn't get too much farther, and I got stopped out on my third lot.

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 chungp2 
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The differences in my AI/SO and AI/AO trade management continue to distance themselves from each other. In a way I feel good that one of my plans have proven to be profitable (so far), but at the same time, I'm a bit discouraged that I seem to be out of sync with the market for the bigger, more profitable moves.

Four trades today.

First Trade: 1st PT met, last two stopped out.

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 chungp2 
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Same story, but long this time.

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  #51 (permalink)
 chungp2 
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By this point, I felt that just going for 5 ticks on all of my contracts would be better for me, emotionally and psychologically. I met my 5 tick PT relatively easy (went long), but saw that price continued to go up. Surprisingly I was not frustrated. Going for these small 5 tick scalps seems to be my bread and butter so far (knock on wood).

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 chungp2 
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I was feeling pretty invincible up to this point (in regards to reaching my first PT). Trade 4, got all the signals for entry (to go short). The direction was down during the day and I was looking to go with the trend. The only problem was that I was not at any significant reference level. I was halfway between the 1st SD low and 2nd SD low. So even though I had my divergences at that price, along with order flow confirmation, I completely disregarded that the 1st SD low was acting as resistance and that price still had more room to move up. Of course, I had a hard stop of 5 ticks (which I don't move until I reach my first PT), but it was not enough to take account the 1st SD low. So I got stopped out and price continued higher and bounced off the 1st SD low, like I expected. I actually had divergences there as well, but didn't enter in because order flow didn't confirm for me.

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 chungp2 
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Given that I have two trade management plans within my journal that I am keeping track of, I have decided to incorporate my AI/AO plan into my overall goal of doubling my account. So basically it is like a race to the top, AI/SO vs AI/AO. Which ever reaches $25,000 first, wins. Or, which ever busts first, loses.

I'm not sure if this is considered cheating since I am not actually trading my AI/AO plan. I can just as easily only trade AI/AO, but then I won't be trading AI/SO (which I need obvious practice in). Since AI/SO already incorporates my AI/AO plan, I will continue to journal the way that I have been, only difference being that I now have a $25,000 sim account for AI/SO, and a $25,000 sim account for AI/AO.

Cheating? Maybe...but it's all in the name of learning.

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 chungp2 
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Only one trade. I didn't get many setups with divergences, and when I did, I wasn't comfortable with what I was seeing in order flow, even though price kept on going in the direction that I thought it would. A little frustrating, but okay since I followed my plan.

Went long in my trade. Didn't take too long to get to my first target. AI/AO wins today.

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  #55 (permalink)
 chungp2 
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I'm going to update my trade management a bit. It's still going to be AI/SO, but only two lots this time around. The first lot will hold 2 contracts, and will still have a 5 tick target. The second lot will have 1 contract and act as a runner to a market generated price level, or until I see divergence going in the other direction.

The reason I am doing this is to be able to lock in profits on my first target. Getting to the first target and then seeing price reverse is getting pretty old, especially since those trades end up in the red (when they could just as easily be in the green with my updated trade management plan.)

I predict that my AI/SO plan will slowly start creeping back into the green. We'll see....

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 chungp2 
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Friday was a red day for both trade management plans. I should not have traded this day. My parents flew in in the middle of the night and I got maybe about 20 mins sleep. I wasn't feeling very sharp...but the thought of missing any good opportunities was too overpowering for me to take the day off.

The first trade of the day was a quick loser. I set 2 contracts at my first target, and my last as a runner. Got stopped out at my hard stop of 5 ticks.

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  #57 (permalink)
 chungp2 
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Trade 2...ended up a winner, just barely. Took this trade not too long after my first trade. Got all signals and entered.

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  #58 (permalink)
 chungp2 
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Last Trade

This one a loser. Honestly all I can say is that I was very tired and not focused enough to trade. I have to control myself next time I am feeling this way.

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  #59 (permalink)
 chungp2 
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My first trade of the day was a trade that I should not have taken (short). I didn't have a divergence on my 10,000 volume chart. For some reason, it was something that I noticed after I had already entered the trade. A slip-up on my part. The trade ended up being a loser and getting stopped out. Thats what I get for being sloppy and not focused.

My second trade (short), I got all of my signals and entered mid bar on my entry footprint chart (something I normally don't so). Price continued to trade in that bar and as volume was building in the bar, the bid vs ask price @ 1430.50 was working against my position. I decided to let the trade play out. Luckily my first target was met, but the last contract was stopped out at -4 ticks.

On the third trade of the day, I was playing a bounce off of the PD high (short). Price just barely reached my stop of 5 ticks, which was frustrating because it didn't go higher, and because it reversed...which brings me to my fourth trade.

The fourth, I got all of my signals, and entered again (short). I got to my first target of 5 ticks, but decided to manage the last lot. It looked as if price was going to go up again due to, what seemed to be a bounce off a LVN. So I got out of my last contract for 3 ticks. All around winner for this trade.

The last trade of the day (long) was sort of a trend following trade. Price was reverting back to the mean, and there was a regular bullish divergence signal. I got confirmation from my footprint and entered. Seemed no one else in the market was thinking the same thing as me, and I got stopped out. Bummer. Another red day for both plans.

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  #60 (permalink)
 chungp2 
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Footprint charts for all of my 5 trades.

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  #61 (permalink)
 chungp2 
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I didn't get a chance to update for 10/16...so doing it now.

Red day for both...I feel like I'm forcing trades when they are not there. I need to be more patient and allow the market to show me high probability trades.

First trade I was just plain wrong. I can accept that.

The second trade, I actually got to my first target, but was not filled (again). That was extremely frustrating, especially since i got stopped out.

My third trade, I admit was emotional based on the fact that I didn't get all of signals for entry, in particular, I didn't get divergence on my trend chart. I admit the frustration of the 2nd trade got me on this one.

I've been on a bit of a losing streak with my AI/AO plan. I'm hoping that this is a "Two steps forward, one step backwards" type of thing. We'll see.

Note on my 10,000 Volume Chart: I decided to get rid of my delta momentum indicator and instead only use the GomMOM as my delta divergence signal. I wasn't seeing any benefit of having both on there.

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  #62 (permalink)
 chungp2 
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Footprints for 10/16.

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  #63 (permalink)
 chungp2 
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My first trade of the day was at a reference level (LVN on a previous session). There seemed to be a big battle between sellers and buyers there. I had divergences on both of my charts. I got stopped out by 1 tick, then price reversed. Sucks, but I was not too upset.

Second trade (short) was taken after a strong move upward. Got all of my signals, entered, then got taken out. Hindsight is 20-20, but after such a strong move up, I should have waited for consolidation rather then entering right away. Price will usually consolidate before deciding to go up or down. There are those rare instances where price will reverse quickly off a strong move up, and I find myself hoping for those moves over and over again when I enter into a trade. I need to be more patient and let price settle before I enter.

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 chungp2 
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Trade 2

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 chungp2 
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One loser on this day. In looking back at this trade, it is easy to see why I should not have taken this, but in the moment, it seemed like a good spot to enter. My thought process at the time was this: Price is below the VPOC, I got all of my signals, I should enter. The one thing I totally disregarded was that price has swiftly traded through that price earlier in the day, thus had no real reason to reverse from there.

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  #66 (permalink)
 chungp2 
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5 trades...3 winners/2 losers

A green for both plans this day, but AI/SO is still very far into the red overall. AI/AO is still in the green, but has been taking a lot of hits as of late. I really need to start picking my spots better and stop entering whenever I see divergences.

The first trade of the day ended up a winner, but should have made more ticks had I set my 2nd target at the VWAP. I eventually got stopped out on my 2nd lot.

The 2nd trade I again got all of my signals and entered...this was after a big move downward and there seemed to be enough contracts at the offer to move price back up. But before price could hit my first 5 tick target, we were reaching an area with very low volume. I had a small feeling that we would encounter resistance in that area...which we did. I was one tick short of getting to my first target, however price reversed and took me out.

At this point in the day, it was quite obvious that price was wanting to go down. So, I decided to go with the trend and go short. I got a signal (regular divergence) and a bounce off a developing LVN (which also happened to be the 1st SD low). I easily got to my 1st and 2nd targets. Price continued to move down, which didn't make me feel too good at the time, but I was also glad to walk away with a decent profit.

Had I stayed in my 3rd trade longer, I would not have probably taken this trade, but I did, and I guess thats all that matters. So again I got all my signals, however I didn't get a divergence on my stochastics...so I deserved to lose on this one (which I did).

My last trade was timed pretty well and even though I could have made more on this trade than I did, I'm pretty happy with that fact that I had the patience and foresight to wait for the market to test a level that I thought would be tested. Price had made another big move down and was beginning to rally once again. Price was filling in the LVN area that was created during the down move. It got to the point where there was one more price that had to be filled in order for it to reach the next HVN (area of acceptance). It quickly got rejected. At that point in time, I already had my signals, I was just waiting on orderflow to confirm. I entered short and got to both of my targets.

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  #67 (permalink)
 chungp2 
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I feel like my premarket analysis needs a lot of work and honestly I need a bit of a helping hand in getting an idea of how to go about it and use it to define my areas of business...so in an effort to accomplish this, I have joined the L2ST room. I have seen and read good things about the room. I'm not expecting any trade calling or red/green light system. I'm actually just wanting to see a professional use volume profile/order flow in real time to see what I am missing and can learn more about.

Moving forward, I will be posting up my own premarket analysis with predetermined areas based on my own homework, so that I don't find myself trading any random divergence.

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 chungp2 
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A couple of small updates...

I haven't taken any trades as I am currently just soaking in all of the information that Kam has to offer. So far I can say that I have been learning a lot and that I am not disappointed. I'm going to continue to watch and observe for the next month and then continue trading on my own.

Not much has changed in my trading approach. I will however start marking up "areas to do business", with different scenarios and visions, and follow only those scenarios if the market unfolds as I envision.

I have also decided to take off the stochastics as that it does not add in any more useful information for me, and more importantly, I would rather stick to volume related indicators as I understand those the most.

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  #69 (permalink)
 chungp2 
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So I have attended the L2ST trading room for the past month and can say that I have honestly learned a lot. In no way is it a trade calling service, and Kam has mentioned that repeatedly. He does however go over market context a lot, i.e. how he analyzes where buyer and seller reactions *might* occur, and most important, how he handles risk. There were a few days where he had a couple of losing trades on the ES, but he shrugged it off, knowing that it was all a part of the game of trading. It was very refreshing to see a professional take it on the chin and still be able to perform. I read about it all the time, how you shouldn't let losing bother you and that you should focus on managing risk, but it was only after seeing it happen to someone else (and seeing how Kam handled it) that I really understood how important risk management is.

He emphasized capital preservation and "knowing when to cut yourself off." This past Tuesday, he had a losing day on the bund. He was no where near his stop loss for the day, but he decided to cut himself off and wait for the next day. Sure, he could have made some of his loss back had he taken a trade during the US session that day, but he made the calm decision to come into the next day with a fresh mind, knowing that he kept his loss small and that he had the confidence that he could make the loss back, plus more (way more).

He also emphasized the importance of preserving the capital that you have already taken out of the market. For example, if I have a $1000 objective for the day, and I have made $500 (for example), then the smart thing to do would be to risk only a portion of that, say for example, half ($250), and if I lose that, then I'm done for the day. I lost on the last trade, but am still up on the day.

Which brings me to the next thing that I learned from Kam: trade by trade win % can be very misleading. It is useful if you are developing or testing a strategy to see if it works more often than it doesn't. However, we will never know the outcome of the trade, it is truly 50/50. You could get all of the signals and the planets could align, then you enter into a trade, and all of a sudden, some big institutional trader decides to jump in and go against your position...

The main theme of the room for me was, risk management and capital preservation. I'm going to be revising my business plan and trading plan to reflect what I have learned in the room. My charts for the most part are staying the same, I've taken off a few indicators and incorporated more defined areas of business.

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 chungp2 
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Going to make everything a little more conservative with my risk plan:

Updated Risk Plan / Trade Management:
  • Risk no more than 1% of total account per trade. Risk no more than 1.5% of total account per day (~$375/day).
  • Have a daily objective of $500. Does not mean that I will get it all the time or that I will keep trading until I get it. But if I get something close to it, for example, $400 on my first trade, then I can be done for the day. However, if I get $250 on the first trade, and I see another opportunity, then I won't risk the full $250 I just made, but perhaps only $100 of it to see if I can squeeze anything more out of the market. If I lose the $100, then I quit for the day still profitable.
  • Maximum of 5 trades per day Maximum of 2 trades per day
  • All-in/scale-out with 3 lots All-in/scale-out with 1~3 contracts, depending on location within profile



The Charts:
  • Composite Daily (1395 min) --> Used mainly for determining long term context. Executions will not be based on this indicator.
  • Longer Time Frame (60 min) Composite --> Used to determine areas of business.
  • 10000 Volume Chart. Took off the stochastic indicator. VWAP is used more for confluence and confidence, but is not a requirement for entry. Used to find delta divergences (regular and hidden)
  • 4 Range Footprint Chart (execution chart).
  • 4 Range with 13 and 20 MA along with delta momentum. This is used to get a birds eye view of the footprint chart, since the footprint chart itself has to be zoomed in to see the volume at bid and ask.

The Entry Signal:
  • Regular or hidden divergences at market generated levels (LVNs, either above value for going short, or below value for going long)
  • Volume shift @ market generated levels using Footprint

The Exit:
  • Hitting my stop of 5 ticks
  • Using VP generated levels as profit targets (VPOC, HVNs)

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 chungp2 
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The charts remain the same for the most part. I mostly just took out stuff that are redundant and don't need.

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 chungp2 
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Back after a hiatus. Spent the past month in the L2ST room learning Kam's way of reading the markets through AMT. Again, learned a lot and will be back in his room next year after I complete my move back to the states.

I didn't trade Monday's session.

Tuesday's (11/27) plan is below. Glad I stuck to my plan. I got in one trade with three lots. All targets hit.

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 chungp2 
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Excel Journal

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 chungp2 
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This was the plan for 11/28...I took two trades trying to fade back into recent developing value. I was stopped out on both tries.

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 chungp2 
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A chart showing my trades for the day. Both were losses, however I stuck to the trading plan and the risk mgmt plan.

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 chungp2 
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Trading Plan for 11/29 Thursday.

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 chungp2 
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Took one trade in the afternoon. Met all of my targets.

I decided to take off the 1415.50 level due to the fact that it was a HVN and the developing VPOC.

Interesting to see the market reactions at all of my "areas of business" (which all happen to be LVNs). Even though there were market reactions earlier in the day, I wasn't seeing the delta divergences that would give me the confidence to enter into the market. It was a serious test of patience and discipline seeing the market move on without me. Glad I stuck to my plan, as it paid off in the end.

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 chungp2 
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I took one trade in the morning that was in one of my areas of business. It didn't get all the way into my buy zone. I would have been more comfortable had price made it to 1411.50, but it was close enough and I had delta divergence with order flow showing me that buyers were stepping in and taking over price. I decided to put in 2 contracts instead of three, mainly because I was trying to manage risk, seeing that price could have moved lower into my buy zone.

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 chungp2 
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Here are my visions for the day. Gonna keep an eye out for delta divergences in my areas of business. If nothing happens, then I just sit on hands and do nothing.

Pain of Regret > Pain of Discipline
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 chungp2 
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Two trades today, both losers, but kept it under my stop loss for the day.

The first trade could have been avoided had I been more patient (hindsight is 20/20). The delta divergence was fairly weak. However, order flow was showing that the sellers were starting to overpower the buyers in my area of business. Psychologically I was afraid of missing out on the trade. I have to learn to be more patient with weaker divergences and enter in on trades that show clearer signs of reversals.

The second trade, I got tagged on my stop loss. Price then immediately turned around and went into my intended direction. Unfortunately it's just one of those things that happen in the market sometimes (or so I hear). I wanted to enter back in to catch the ride, but I was at my stop for the day. Frustrating to see it move, however glad I stuck to my risk mgmt plan, as I know it will save my @$$ in the long run.

Pain of Regret > Pain of Discipline
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 chungp2 
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have watched a lot of webinars in futures.io (formerly BMT)...some random things that stuck in my mind:
  • wait for the best opportunities
  • it is OK to miss out on a trade
  • the market does not care if you were profitable or not the day before...everyday is a new day
  • each trade is 50/50...trade and risk mgmt determines the outcome
  • I cannot control the direction of the market, so focus on the things I can control (risk, size, etc)

had some time at work...drew something up real quick.

Pain of Regret > Pain of Discipline
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 chungp2 
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I didn't take any trades today. But I did create a plan for the day. I saw an opportunity to enter at around 9:43 off one of my levels, but I didn't pull the trigger.

Pain of Regret > Pain of Discipline
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 chungp2 
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I took one trade (3 contracts) at one of my levels. I was able to get 2 of my targets filled. My second target just barely got filled. I placed it at a HVN within the developing profile. After getting filled on my 2nd target, price moved up past a LVN and I was leaning on that for my last stop. If price were to break past that LVN and travel through the HVN below that, then my assumption on the direction of the market was wrong. It did break past the LVN and eventually hit my stop. Price then proceeded to plummet all the way down to 1396.75. At that point I didn't have anything in my plan to enter into a trade...so I just sat on my hands.

Will post up charts a little later.

Pain of Regret > Pain of Discipline
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 chungp2 
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I took two trades today based on my plan. The first one didn't work out, however the second one did.

I entered long with 3 contracts and got tagged on my stop during my first trade. However, it set up very quickly again and this time entered in with 2 contracts (risk/money mgmt wouldn't allow me to do a 3-lot again). I left my stop where it was after my first target was hit. After price crossed a LVN above, I moved my stop to the middle of the HVN below the LVN that was just crossed. I put my 2nd target at the Micro-composite VPOC (1413.50). This trade took forever to play out. My stop almost got hit. Had it gone one tick lower, it would have hit my stop. Price then reversed. It was starting to get late in the day and I wanted to flatten my position. So I modified my stop to the high of the day (at the time, 1412.75). It eventually got hit. Price then proceeded to go to 1413.50 level (which amazingly ended up being the high of the day). I ended up barely profitable for the day. However, what I am more ecstatic about is the fact that I was able to pinpoint (to the tick) where price was likely heading. Probably not going to happen often, but it definitely gives me confidence in my growing ability to anticipate where the market may move.

Will upload charts and excel journal later.

Pain of Regret > Pain of Discipline
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 chungp2 
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Took one trade at one of my areas of business. I entered in short with 3 lots. My first and second targets were both filled, at which point I moved my stop to BE. Price then moved back up and through my stop.

Pain of Regret > Pain of Discipline
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 chungp2 
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-everyday 5:15PM - d/l minute and tick data

-every morning - check footprint chart for any missing gom data...run market replay if anything is missing.

-end of every week - check for missing gom/tick/minute data

review areas of past support and resistance and watch the bid/ask price action.

Pain of Regret > Pain of Discipline
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 chungp2 
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haven't had time to journal any of my trades b/c of other commitments (visa stuff for my wife).

I have traded the past two days however. Both days were in the red. Trying to keep my losers within reason. It's a little discouraging to see gains being lost again, but I just gotta remember: it's a marathon...not a sprint.

Pain of Regret > Pain of Discipline
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 chungp2 
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took a break from trading to take care of a couple of different things for my move back to the states. Was also a good opportunity to run a couple of stats on the market. Nothing groundbreaking, but more or less confirmation for things that FT71 and a couple of other folks on here have already done.

Pain of Regret > Pain of Discipline
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 chungp2 
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I normally don't do resolutions, but I think in trading, one can always improve and make new resolutions, new years or not.

I took a look at the recent video that @PandaWarrior put up on risk and position sizing. Caused me to go back and re-evaluate my own trading and risk plan. I've made some revisions...the biggest one being I am switching over to the YM.

I made a couple of quick YM vs ES points to help in my decision. Also attaching my risk and position sizing calculations based on the video I watched.

Pain of Regret > Pain of Discipline
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 chungp2 
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Took some stats on the YM...same as I did with the ES. All data is from 1/2/2009 up to 12/28/2012. It is not holiday or outlier adjusted. Those of you looking at these numbers may want to run these stats yourself. Don't trust anyone else's homework.

Pain of Regret > Pain of Discipline
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 chungp2 
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I will still be using the same charts for the most part. However, had to change a few things due to the change in liquidity and volatility.

- Changed the 10,000 volume intraday chart to an 8 range intraday.

- I'm taking out the GomMOM indicator and replacing it with the GomCD. I will still be looking for divergences, but within the GomCD.

- Moving my 4 range footprint chart up to an 8 range.

- Going to be adding daily range bands. Not for entry signals, but for identifying areas of business within the average daily range. I will also be using the average daily range to set realistic profit targets once I am in a trade.

Pain of Regret > Pain of Discipline
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 chungp2 
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Took 4 trades...overtraded...like a dumbass

My first trade (short) was taken premarket. Got the perfect divergence at the 13247 LVN area. First and second lots were filled. Moved my stop above a LVN. If price had come back to violate and break that LVN, then my assumption on the direction of the trade was wrong and I would be stopped out. Price did move across the LVN and continued to move upwards. Stopped out on last lot.

Second trade was taken with one contract, mainly to limit risk and preserve capital.

Third trade did not get one tick of pleasure at all. Entered in and immediately saw price move against my position. Again, this was only one contract, so the damage was small.

The last trade saw me getting filled on the first contract and stopped out on the last for a small loss.

Overall ended the day up, but still failed to follow my risk and trading plan. I get an F for the day.

Pain of Regret > Pain of Discipline
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 chungp2 
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On 1/3, I took a trade that I normally wouldn't have taken. It was a trade with the trend, with no divergence. The trade was taken as more of a hunch, based on market structure and what I perceived to be bullish market sentiment. Price approached an area of business that I thought was resistance. I was watching the order flow carefully to see if buyers were continuing to lift the offer. I took a contract long @ 13349. I put my stop below at a HVN (13328), which was below a LVN. I thought I was quite safe. I took only one contract because of the wider stop that I had in place. My PT was at another LVN from a previous micro composite. In order for this trade to have been successful, it would have to have seen acceptance at 13360 (HVN), with a test to the other side of the HVN. Price stopped (to the tick) at the HVN, and the sellers stepped in and took price back down through my stop. I got stopped out -21 ticks.

1/4, took two trades. Looking back over the charts of this day, not sure why I took the trades that I did. Price clearly tested my level earlier in the day, as well as the previous day with no problem. I should be sticking to levels that fit within VP context.

Overall, I like the YM a lot more...mostly b/c I lose less in my losing trades compared with my losing trades in the ES.

Pain of Regret > Pain of Discipline
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  #94 (permalink)
 chungp2 
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Had an opportunity at the 13275 area to go long. I had a 2 lot order working but never got filled. Price ran away from me. Sh*t happens...comes with the territory in trading I guess. In any case, I think a good way to avoid this would be to average into my positions:

-One at market
-one below market, and
-the last lot 2 ticks below my first entry.

That way, at least I can get one lot in, in case price decides to run off. If price decides tick below my entry, then my second lot will be filled, and if it ticks one more below that, than I will have had my 3rd lot filled (hopefully). Average all of the entry prices, and it still works out as if I entered in on one price. I guess the only time when my my average price would be slightly higher is when my third lot doesn't get filled. but I'm not going to get too picky about 1/2 a point on the YM (which doesn't even exist).

Pain of Regret > Pain of Discipline
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  #95 (permalink)
 chungp2 
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Pain of Regret > Pain of Discipline
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  #96 (permalink)
 chungp2 
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Markets taking me to school...regardless ended up just barely profitable this week.

I need to review my risk and trading plan once again. I've decided to abandon the mechanical approach to placing my stops and use more of a VP approach to better define where I should place my stops. My point of entry, along with where I will abandon the trade (stop and profit target) will determine the amount of size I will be trading, which I will calculate ahead of time. This will help me determine whether or not a trade has a good R:R.

Also decided to place a little less emphasis on cum. delta. I'm gonna focus more on VP LVNs and HVNs, as well as ordeflow to determine entries.

Pain of Regret > Pain of Discipline
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  #97 (permalink)
 chungp2 
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I didn't get any fills today...i had a couple of limit orders sitting at my levels, but they never got filled. some came close (within a tick or two), but the market decided to run off without me. I'm ok with that...what I am more happy about is how well I was able to anticipate the price movement based on the VP from previous days.

Not really using CD or order flow at this point for signals or execution. My entries and exits are now more based on my understanding of VP and different acceptance and rejection levels. Little by little, I'm chipping away at the amount of indicator screen space that I require.

Pain of Regret > Pain of Discipline
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 chungp2 
Hartford, CT
 
Experience: Beginner
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Decided to take out the 13559 level. If happens to travel down there again, I'm not too comfortable buying into that area, seeing as there is already a dent from yesterdays test of that level. Not too many areas for me to do business today. I guess that's what happens when the market travels into darker territory.

Pain of Regret > Pain of Discipline
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 chungp2 
Hartford, CT
 
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Profit taking or price acceptance?

Will have to wait and see...

Pain of Regret > Pain of Discipline
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 chungp2 
Hartford, CT
 
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Didn't take any trades today. A pretty tight range, with a "D" shaped profile.

Also sold my 22-inch monitor recently. Screen shots are going to be small until I get a new one back in the states.

Pain of Regret > Pain of Discipline
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