I didn't get a chance to update for 10/16...so doing it now.
Red day for both...I feel like I'm forcing trades when they are not there. I need to be more patient and allow the market to show me high probability trades.
First trade I was just plain wrong. I can accept that.
The second trade, I actually got to my first target, but was not filled (again). That was extremely frustrating, especially since i got stopped out.
My third trade, I admit was emotional based on the fact that I didn't get all of signals for entry, in particular, I didn't get divergence on my trend chart. I admit the frustration of the 2nd trade got me on this one.
I've been on a bit of a losing streak with my AI/AO plan. I'm hoping that this is a "Two steps forward, one step backwards" type of thing. We'll see.
Note on my 10,000 Volume Chart: I decided to get rid of my delta momentum indicator and instead only use the GomMOM as my delta divergence signal. I wasn't seeing any benefit of having both on there.
My first trade of the day was at a reference level (LVN on a previous session). There seemed to be a big battle between sellers and buyers there. I had divergences on both of my charts. I got stopped out by 1 tick, then price reversed. Sucks, but I was not too upset.
Second trade (short) was taken after a strong move upward. Got all of my signals, entered, then got taken out. Hindsight is 20-20, but after such a strong move up, I should have waited for consolidation rather then entering right away. Price will usually consolidate before deciding to go up or down. There are those rare instances where price will reverse quickly off a strong move up, and I find myself hoping for those moves over and over again when I enter into a trade. I need to be more patient and let price settle before I enter.
One loser on this day. In looking back at this trade, it is easy to see why I should not have taken this, but in the moment, it seemed like a good spot to enter. My thought process at the time was this: Price is below the VPOC, I got all of my signals, I should enter. The one thing I totally disregarded was that price has swiftly traded through that price earlier in the day, thus had no real reason to reverse from there.
A green for both plans this day, but AI/SO is still very far into the red overall. AI/AO is still in the green, but has been taking a lot of hits as of late. I really need to start picking my spots better and stop entering whenever I see divergences.
The first trade of the day ended up a winner, but should have made more ticks had I set my 2nd target at the VWAP. I eventually got stopped out on my 2nd lot.
The 2nd trade I again got all of my signals and entered...this was after a big move downward and there seemed to be enough contracts at the offer to move price back up. But before price could hit my first 5 tick target, we were reaching an area with very low volume. I had a small feeling that we would encounter resistance in that area...which we did. I was one tick short of getting to my first target, however price reversed and took me out.
At this point in the day, it was quite obvious that price was wanting to go down. So, I decided to go with the trend and go short. I got a signal (regular divergence) and a bounce off a developing LVN (which also happened to be the 1st SD low). I easily got to my 1st and 2nd targets. Price continued to move down, which didn't make me feel too good at the time, but I was also glad to walk away with a decent profit.
Had I stayed in my 3rd trade longer, I would not have probably taken this trade, but I did, and I guess thats all that matters. So again I got all my signals, however I didn't get a divergence on my stochastics...so I deserved to lose on this one (which I did).
My last trade was timed pretty well and even though I could have made more on this trade than I did, I'm pretty happy with that fact that I had the patience and foresight to wait for the market to test a level that I thought would be tested. Price had made another big move down and was beginning to rally once again. Price was filling in the LVN area that was created during the down move. It got to the point where there was one more price that had to be filled in order for it to reach the next HVN (area of acceptance). It quickly got rejected. At that point in time, I already had my signals, I was just waiting on orderflow to confirm. I entered short and got to both of my targets.
The following user says Thank You to chungp2 for this post:
I feel like my premarket analysis needs a lot of work and honestly I need a bit of a helping hand in getting an idea of how to go about it and use it to define my areas of business...so in an effort to accomplish this, I have joined the L2ST room. I have seen and read good things about the room. I'm not expecting any trade calling or red/green light system. I'm actually just wanting to see a professional use volume profile/order flow in real time to see what I am missing and can learn more about.
Moving forward, I will be posting up my own premarket analysis with predetermined areas based on my own homework, so that I don't find myself trading any random divergence.
I haven't taken any trades as I am currently just soaking in all of the information that Kam has to offer. So far I can say that I have been learning a lot and that I am not disappointed. I'm going to continue to watch and observe for the next month and then continue trading on my own.
Not much has changed in my trading approach. I will however start marking up "areas to do business", with different scenarios and visions, and follow only those scenarios if the market unfolds as I envision.
I have also decided to take off the stochastics as that it does not add in any more useful information for me, and more importantly, I would rather stick to volume related indicators as I understand those the most.
So I have attended the L2ST trading room for the past month and can say that I have honestly learned a lot. In no way is it a trade calling service, and Kam has mentioned that repeatedly. He does however go over market context a lot, i.e. how he analyzes where buyer and seller reactions *might* occur, and most important, how he handles risk. There were a few days where he had a couple of losing trades on the ES, but he shrugged it off, knowing that it was all a part of the game of trading. It was very refreshing to see a professional take it on the chin and still be able to perform. I read about it all the time, how you shouldn't let losing bother you and that you should focus on managing risk, but it was only after seeing it happen to someone else (and seeing how Kam handled it) that I really understood how important risk management is.
He emphasized capital preservation and "knowing when to cut yourself off." This past Tuesday, he had a losing day on the bund. He was no where near his stop loss for the day, but he decided to cut himself off and wait for the next day. Sure, he could have made some of his loss back had he taken a trade during the US session that day, but he made the calm decision to come into the next day with a fresh mind, knowing that he kept his loss small and that he had the confidence that he could make the loss back, plus more (way more).
He also emphasized the importance of preserving the capital that you have already taken out of the market. For example, if I have a $1000 objective for the day, and I have made $500 (for example), then the smart thing to do would be to risk only a portion of that, say for example, half ($250), and if I lose that, then I'm done for the day. I lost on the last trade, but am still up on the day.
Which brings me to the next thing that I learned from Kam: trade by trade win % can be very misleading. It is useful if you are developing or testing a strategy to see if it works more often than it doesn't. However, we will never know the outcome of the trade, it is truly 50/50. You could get all of the signals and the planets could align, then you enter into a trade, and all of a sudden, some big institutional trader decides to jump in and go against your position...
The main theme of the room for me was, risk management and capital preservation. I'm going to be revising my business plan and trading plan to reflect what I have learned in the room. My charts for the most part are staying the same, I've taken off a few indicators and incorporated more defined areas of business.
Going to make everything a little more conservative with my risk plan:
Updated Risk Plan / Trade Management:
Risk no more than 1% of total account per trade.Risk no more than 1.5% of total account per day (~$375/day).
Have a daily objective of $500. Does not mean that I will get it all the time or that I will keep trading until I get it. But if I get something close to it, for example, $400 on my first trade, then I can be done for the day. However, if I get $250 on the first trade, and I see another opportunity, then I won't risk the full $250 I just made, but perhaps only $100 of it to see if I can squeeze anything more out of the market. If I lose the $100, then I quit for the day still profitable.
Maximum of 5 trades per dayMaximum of 2 trades per day
All-in/scale-out with 3 lotsAll-in/scale-out with 1~3 contracts, depending on location within profile
Composite Daily (1395 min) --> Used mainly for determining long term context. Executions will not be based on this indicator.
Longer Time Frame (60 min) Composite --> Used to determine areas of business.
10000 Volume Chart. Took off the stochastic indicator. VWAP is used more for confluence and confidence, but is not a requirement for entry. Used to find delta divergences (regular and hidden)