I will still be using the same charts for the most part. However, had to change a few things due to the change in liquidity and volatility.
- Changed the 10,000 volume intraday chart to an 8 range intraday.
- I'm taking out the GomMOM indicator and replacing it with the GomCD. I will still be looking for divergences, but within the GomCD.
- Moving my 4 range footprint chart up to an 8 range.
- Going to be adding daily range bands. Not for entry signals, but for identifying areas of business within the average daily range. I will also be using the average daily range to set realistic profit targets once I am in a trade.
My first trade (short) was taken premarket. Got the perfect divergence at the 13247 LVN area. First and second lots were filled. Moved my stop above a LVN. If price had come back to violate and break that LVN, then my assumption on the direction of the trade was wrong and I would be stopped out. Price did move across the LVN and continued to move upwards. Stopped out on last lot.
Second trade was taken with one contract, mainly to limit risk and preserve capital.
Third trade did not get one tick of pleasure at all. Entered in and immediately saw price move against my position. Again, this was only one contract, so the damage was small.
The last trade saw me getting filled on the first contract and stopped out on the last for a small loss.
Overall ended the day up, but still failed to follow my risk and trading plan. I get an F for the day.
Pain of Regret > Pain of Discipline
Last edited by chungp2; January 3rd, 2013 at 04:57 AM.
On 1/3, I took a trade that I normally wouldn't have taken. It was a trade with the trend, with no divergence. The trade was taken as more of a hunch, based on market structure and what I perceived to be bullish market sentiment. Price approached an area of business that I thought was resistance. I was watching the order flow carefully to see if buyers were continuing to lift the offer. I took a contract long @ 13349. I put my stop below at a HVN (13328), which was below a LVN. I thought I was quite safe. I took only one contract because of the wider stop that I had in place. My PT was at another LVN from a previous micro composite. In order for this trade to have been successful, it would have to have seen acceptance at 13360 (HVN), with a test to the other side of the HVN. Price stopped (to the tick) at the HVN, and the sellers stepped in and took price back down through my stop. I got stopped out -21 ticks.
1/4, took two trades. Looking back over the charts of this day, not sure why I took the trades that I did. Price clearly tested my level earlier in the day, as well as the previous day with no problem. I should be sticking to levels that fit within VP context.
Overall, I like the YM a lot more...mostly b/c I lose less in my losing trades compared with my losing trades in the ES.
Had an opportunity at the 13275 area to go long. I had a 2 lot order working but never got filled. Price ran away from me. Sh*t happens...comes with the territory in trading I guess. In any case, I think a good way to avoid this would be to average into my positions:
-One at market
-one below market, and
-the last lot 2 ticks below my first entry.
That way, at least I can get one lot in, in case price decides to run off. If price decides tick below my entry, then my second lot will be filled, and if it ticks one more below that, than I will have had my 3rd lot filled (hopefully). Average all of the entry prices, and it still works out as if I entered in on one price. I guess the only time when my my average price would be slightly higher is when my third lot doesn't get filled. but I'm not going to get too picky about 1/2 a point on the YM (which doesn't even exist).
Markets taking me to school...regardless ended up just barely profitable this week.
I need to review my risk and trading plan once again. I've decided to abandon the mechanical approach to placing my stops and use more of a VP approach to better define where I should place my stops. My point of entry, along with where I will abandon the trade (stop and profit target) will determine the amount of size I will be trading, which I will calculate ahead of time. This will help me determine whether or not a trade has a good R:R.
Also decided to place a little less emphasis on cum. delta. I'm gonna focus more on VP LVNs and HVNs, as well as ordeflow to determine entries.
Pain of Regret > Pain of Discipline
Last edited by chungp2; January 18th, 2013 at 11:21 PM.
I didn't get any fills today...i had a couple of limit orders sitting at my levels, but they never got filled. some came close (within a tick or two), but the market decided to run off without me. I'm ok with that...what I am more happy about is how well I was able to anticipate the price movement based on the VP from previous days.
Not really using CD or order flow at this point for signals or execution. My entries and exits are now more based on my understanding of VP and different acceptance and rejection levels. Little by little, I'm chipping away at the amount of indicator screen space that I require.
Decided to take out the 13559 level. If happens to travel down there again, I'm not too comfortable buying into that area, seeing as there is already a dent from yesterdays test of that level. Not too many areas for me to do business today. I guess that's what happens when the market travels into darker territory.