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David_R's Trading Journey Journal (Pls comment)


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David_R's Trading Journey Journal (Pls comment)

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  #1 (permalink)
 David_R 
San Jose, Ca
 
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At the suggestion of Mike I've decided to start a Journal on the forum. Mike says Journaling will help to improve my trading and I believe that is true. I also want to be able to show the methodology that I currently use and will most likely continue to tweak in order to make it more intuitive. I'm not sure intuitive is an appropriate term when it comes to trading, but that's my intent.

This method was not created by me and most likely many of you have seen something like this. Some of this may be from Woodies methodology and some comes from others. The origin is not important to me and since I'm not taking any credit for the creation it really isn't important who the creator is. I found most of this methodology on the Trading-Naked.com site and more info on Tradershaven and even more from Mark Braun.

In looking over many of the the threads on futures.io (formerly BMT) with all of the very nice indicators etc. I tend to believe that many of these things we use all do the same thing. There may be a different color, or different squiggly, but in general it does the same thing. I've thrown on a number of the indicators from the futures.io (formerly BMT) forum and they all may be useful to achieve the same thing.

I've had a number of people say find something that speaks to you. This method makes sense to me and it helps me to rule out trades that i shouldn't be taking in the first place.

The attached chart is of a trade I took today. The first thing is that I probably shouldn't have taken the trade because its on CL and that is not for boys. I like CL because it moves fast and I struggle with patience. That's the excuse part. Also, currently my rules say the higher time frame 50 CCI should be on the correct side of 0 which in this case is above 0 to take longs on the lower time frame. That was not the case in this trade. This is another reason for the Journal and that is for accountability. I either need to decide I don't need to wait on the higher time frame or pull my head out and follow the rules.

The method uses 3 CCI's. The 50 CCI, 14, CCI and the 6 CCI. The 50 gives the general trend as well as a trigger called the 5034. The 50 34 is where the 50 crosses the 0 line when price is crossing the 34 EMA. The 14 CCI is used for triggers such as ZLR's and is used in conjunction with the 50 CCI which is called the 5014. That is when the 50 CCI is on the correct side of 0 and the 14 crosses 0 to the same side the 50 CCI is on. The 6 is just a confirming CCI and is used as such. In other words, in the example trade in the chart the 50 CCI is crossing the 0 line and at the same time the 6 is crossing 0. There are more nuances such as using higher time frames and even adding in fibonacci work for support and resistance. I show symmetry support in the screen shot. Its a 100 % of the swing projected from the new high to give symmetry support.

The EMA's also proved trend. The 20 above the 34 look for longs and visa versa unless you want to stand aside and wait for the lower time frame to come in line with the higher timeframe.

I encourage and appreciate feedback, questions or comments. Anything from agreement in the methodology to shooting holes in it is fine with me. If you have improvements or simplification that is great too. Any and all feedback is welcome. Thanks for reading.

David

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 cclsys 
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Those volume bars really seem to smooth out Crude nicely. Thanks for clearly indicating what everything is on your chart.

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 Big Mike 
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Nicely done, David. My suggestion for now is simply to stick with it, make a minimum of one post per day to your journal talking about the trades you took that day, and grading yourself for the day -- not based on profitability, but based on doing what you told yourself you would do at the beginning of the day.

Over the course of these 10 journal entries you'll develop patterns that will provide insight on what you should do next.

Mike

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 benharrell 
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David -

Really enjoyed your initial overview. I've spent some time studying CCI/Woodies techniques, and look forward to other set-ups, and journal entries. Awesome.

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 thaifans 
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Hi david, I using almost the same setup as y just i using difference EMA value and i did not use 6CCI. Looking forward for your daily post. Thanks

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 benharrell 
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Also, quick question: What other time frames do you use in your workspace? I plugged it into a 250 Volume, and it had some earlier ZLR's and the 50 CCI broke a bit earlier. All obvious on a smaller time frame, but just wanted to get your thoughts.

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 David_R 
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benharrell View Post
Also, quick question: What other time frames do you use in your workspace? I plugged it into a 250 Volume, and it had some earlier ZLR's and the 50 CCI broke a bit earlier. All obvious on a smaller time frame, but just wanted to get your thoughts.

In addition to the 500 volume I look at a 1000V and a 3000v. I also like to look at minute charts such as a 60 minute and a daily. One of my problems has been taking counter trend trades. Its not that they can't work out, but since this is a game of probabilities I'd rather stick with the path of least resistance. No pun intended.

David

P.S.

Ben, I'm also trying to not use too fast time frame. The 250 would trigger faster, but it will probably do more back and forth. I would need to take a look and see.

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 David_R 
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Hello all and thanks for the comments. Attached is the CL and NQ for today. Some things I did well and some I didn't do well at all. Overall I give myself a C for the day. The things I did poorly get more weight in my book than what I did well.

Mike you say don't grade based on profit which is hard to do. Today was profitable, so keeping that out of the equation it wasn't such a good day.

I find it odd that I repeat the same mistakes.

David

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 benharrell 
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David,

Thanks for the MTF update, I was curious more than anything. I enjoy your set-up and workspace so much, I think I am going to incorporate this into my trading for a test. Would you mind if I posted a few entry and exit attempts via this thread? Simulator of course.

Also, I like your watchful eye of the consolidation/chart pattern that formed prior to the news at 10:30. I usually try to stay away from the news because I end up feeling the rath of the whip-saw. However, I liked the boldness.

Look forward to more charts. Good trading!

-Ben

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 David_R 
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Ben,

Your welcome, and I have to be honest, I wasn't aware of the news at 10:30. I think I got back to my desk after 10:30. News announcements is another area I need to be aware of.

You are welcome to post whatever you like. Even though this is my Journal I am open to any and all comments. I actually consider this a work in process and hope that as time progresses it actually becomes easier via some of the futures.io (formerly BMT) indicators. For now, I want to keep it clean and force myself to read what is taking place in front of me. If you have other interpretations or suggestions feel free to post them. Charts are always welcome.

David

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 benharrell 
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Hi David,

Good point as it is your journal. I'll be sure to keep my comments and posts specific to your system and workspace.

As for the news, I use this website to keep a watchful eye on what's ahead for the day. Barron's Econoday - Barrons.com

I know there is an indicator/indicators floating around that also can assist w/ onscreen notifications and such--I'll dig around for you on this one. Someone might get to it before me as well...

One last question, are there any other set-ups that you look for at the moment, or do you have a catalog of set-ups that you look for? If so, I would love to hear/see them so that I can continue to keep an eye on a chart with your settings, etc. (i.e. do you look for 100 ZLB's for entry/exit on your higher time frames?)

Best,
Ben

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 David_R 
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Ben,

Even though it's my Journal you can post. I don't mind.

I do look for 100 line bounces for an entry. I try and use only a few setups so that I don't over trade, which is a problem for me. So I I can limit the setups to the 5034 (price crossing the 34 ema and 50 cci crossing 0) 5034Z (same as the 5034, but the 50 cci does a ZLR after crossing 0. Somes its just better to wait for this then entering on the 5034, but it depends on the amount of risk), the 5014 (50cci on the right side of 0 and the 14 crossing 0) and the 100 line bounces. In conjunction I may use and trend line break on the CCI.

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 rassi 
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This looks good David, I have looked at this on min charts and it gives rather slow entries however on volume its much better. Are you incorporating fibs at all as I consider those to be the strongest aspect of Marks setup?

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 David_R 
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Here is a chart from today on the ES. I'm not a fan of the ES at all, but i saw this set up and I had a couple losers in CL. Today in CL I get an F because it was sideways and i traded it anyways. I got stopped out on the first trade and of course entered another that was up about 8-10 tics, but reversed and stopped me out again. This ES helped me to make the day not as large of a loser, but putting P and L aside I'm not happy with how I traded this. I traded 12 contracts and took 6 off at 3 tics which is okay. I'm only looking for a small amount on the first half. From that point on my management was aweful. I didn't have a good plan as to where i wanted to exit. Price went in my favor about 5 tics and came back and I took off 3 more for 3 tics. I tell myself to hold for 6 tics for the next 1/4 which is ultimately hit. Once up 6 tics i moved stop to B/E which is when I start to relax. I took off 2 at 1038 which was shy of the prior swing high of 1038.5 for 9 tics. I like to keep one contract just in the event there is a move and I trail fairly tightly. Last one closed at 1037.5 which was in conjunction with the 100 line cross. Overall I give myself a C for poor management of the trade.

I give myself a B+ for looking for a long because i was contemplating a short around the 1038 area where all the blue bars are. There is a high volume bar at around 11:33 AM and then high volume bars with narrow spreads. The trade would have worked in hindsight, but it is counter trend and none of the indicators are in alignment. The only thing there is some divergence on the CCI. It should still be and was a no trade. But....I did short after I was out of the long two contracts at 1037.50 because of the high volume bar at around 12:50. The last push higher was on low volume and with the high volume bar closing on the low i thought we may get a moved down for a quick point or so. It didn't bo anywhere and was about a 2 or 3 tic loss. It is counter trend and even though the 50 cci crossed the +100 it is not below 0 and the higher time frames are not in alignment. This last trade I give myself an F.

I did not post the CL charts because I am embarrassed to do so.

David

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 David_R 
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rassi View Post
This looks good David, I have looked at this on min charts and it gives rather slow entries however on volume its much better. Are you incorporating fibs at all as I consider those to be the strongest aspect of Marks setup?

Yes, I do look at Fibs. I like symmetry for staying in the trend and I also like to look at fib S/R on the higher time frame such as a 60 minute to enter on the lower time frame.

I've noticed that the volume charts look smoother, but there seems to be a lot more crosses of the 0 lines like today which is tough to deal with. I'm trying to decide if I stick with volume charts or not.

David

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 emini_Holy_Grail 
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David_R
You mentioned 3min in line with higher TF, 9 or 15min. do you see both in same chart, 3min and 15min?

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 Big Mike 
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David,

Throw embarrassment out the window. You need to do "something" with that chart so that you can learn from it and/or improve upon your actions. Posting in a public journal is one way to help minimize making the same mistake twice.

Mike

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 David_R 
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emini_Holy_Grail View Post
David_R
You mentioned 3min in line with higher TF, 9 or 15min. do you see both in same chart, 3min and 15min?

No, they were off to the side. If I recall correctly they were in alignment. The program Fibonacci trader allows 3 time frames on one chart. You can put the indicators from a 15 minute directly on a 3 or 5 minute chart. Petty cool. Just and FYI.

D

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 David_R 
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Big Mike View Post
David,

Throw embarrassment out the window. You need to do "something" with that chart so that you can learn from it and/or improve upon your actions. Posting in a public journal is one way to help minimize making the same mistake twice.

Mike

Mike, thanks! I know you are right.

Today was worse then yesterday. If there were a grade below F I would give it to myself. I've been trying to create new habits such as following rules and my plan and today was just the opposite. Today is the kind of day that makes me think I'm not cut out for this business.

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 benbrooke 
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David ,

i like you journal!

i can relate to you in what happen today , i graded my self today also as F i didnt have any trade setup today and i took without any plan

Dont give up!!

ban.

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 emini_Holy_Grail 
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David

We all face this situation in trading at least more than once. But we loose only when we quit!!!
when ever I have drawdowns/frustrations, I read this phrase below and I was able to recover, so am sure you will do as well.

"Failure is the Opportunity to begin again more intelligently" - By Henry Ford

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 Big Mike 
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David_R View Post
Mike, thanks! I know you are right.

Today was worse then yesterday. If there were a grade below F I would give it to myself. I've been trying to create new habits such as following rules and my plan and today was just the opposite. Today is the kind of day that makes me think I'm not cut out for this business.

David,

Without knowing what/how it was worse, it sounds like you need to take some steps here right away to make sure the pattern is broken.

1) Cut position size in half.
2) Identify one or two CRITICAL goals to make sure you get an "A" on for the next several days (preferably, 2 weeks). Such as "I will NOT take more than 3 trades", or "I will NOT trade countertrend.", etc.

Only you know what #2 should be. But you've got to make sure steps are taken so that the next day is not worse than the prior two. And you must accept you cannot and will not make back all those losses in one day, probably not even in one week, and if they are really bad, then even one month.

Several things to learn and acknowledge: a few "worst days ever" can blow an entire account. They must be prevented at all costs. Patience is key. A really bad day can take just minutes and hours to unfold, but take days and weeks to recover from.

Mike

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 David_R 
San Jose, Ca
 
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I skipped posting yesterday even though the day was profitable. That really isn't the goal which is something I'm sure we learn the hard way. When i told a friend of mine that the goal of trading is to trade well and not to make money, they responded, "really?" I always thought the goal was to make money and to make a lot of it. Of course I think we all know that if that is our goal we are bound to fail. So, making the goal to trade well which means following the rules each and every time will bring the financial rewards.

I have a number of charts today. First thing is the day gets a C over all because at Mikes suggestion, and a good one at that I need to cut back on my trades especially if the day does not work out. I think 3 is a good number and i took 4 trades. I also give myself an F for the first 2 trades because the were counter trend. One was a loss and the other one was a winner enough to cover the loss. This is something that has come about because of a course I took. I don't want to roast anyone on this forum, and as far as I know the person does not belong to the forum, but the method is basically a no indicator method based on support and resistance and volume. It is kind of a VSA methodology. I tend to believe in VSA, but I think VSA does take into account the trend of some kind, but I'm not sure. Anyway, the first two trades of my day were counter trend on CL. The reason for the trade is indicated on the chart showing volume declining in the down move. This is taught as volume divergence and with an absence of sellers price should rise. The first trade i got stopped out. The second one was the same type of setup only the Red bar #2 has a very narrow spread on higher volume. This is taught as buying coming in or prof. money coming in. I made money on the trade, enough to cover the first loss. I am showing these because they are counter trend, risky, and the probability of the trade working is lower. The one that taught the course does not believe in indicators and said they lag. That is true, but I've come to realize we need to put as much ammo in our favor as possible. So, if the CCI, which I believe is momentum based says take shorts then I need to take shorts. Not in the shorts. I don't want to ramble on about this so ask question if you want to know something about it. Point is, I need to drop this method today and forever.

On a happier note I took 2 TF trades both for winners, but grade myself C+ on management. First target is 1 point hit on both trades, but the management on the first could have been better. The second trade first target hit for one point and 1.5 on the second and 2.0 on the third. A better job of management, but do much fiddling round with stops and targets. I need to decide my targets and trailing methodology and stick with it.

Even with trades with the trend and in favor of the indicators and even with profit and stop at even it is still nerve racking with all the price oscillation.

Thanks for all the comments and support.

David

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 emini_Holy_Grail 
Dallas,TX
 
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David
what time zone is your chart is in?

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 David_R 
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emini_Holy_Grail View Post
David
what time zone is your chart is in?


West coast time zone. I am in California.

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 rassi 
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David, that es trade sure was a great trade, great setup and well executed, one of those a day is all that's needed! .

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  #27 (permalink)
 David_R 
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I'm trying to start over and in so doing I've created a Trade Plan. I've attached it for review.

David

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 benbrooke 
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Very detailed Trading plan

Good Luck!!!

Keep on sowing your seed, for you never know which will grow -- perhaps it all will.

-- Albert Einstein
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  #29 (permalink)
 David_R 
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benbrooke View Post
Very detailed Trading plan

Good Luck!!!

Ben,

Please comment if you like. I asked Mike if he would and he said to post it on my Journal.

I was trying to be detailed. That way I can't have any excuses.

David

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  #30 (permalink)
 benbrooke 
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maybe i miss that are you going to trade both CL and YM at the same time?

Keep on sowing your seed, for you never know which will grow -- perhaps it all will.

-- Albert Einstein
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  #31 (permalink)
 David_R 
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benbrooke View Post
maybe i miss that are you going to trade both CL and YM at the same time?


Ben,

I had put both YM and CL in the plan, but would only trade one at a time. My thinking was that there are times when the Index futures don't move, so I was giving myself the option of having another market to look at. I remember what you said about mastering one, so I will be updating the plan to only trade one market. I will stick with YM.

Thanks,

David

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  #32 (permalink)
 cclsys 
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Great plan. Thanks for sharing it. I too work with volume-price SR and appreciate/enjoy reviewing your method.

I have had a hard time putting together a plan but mainly because apart from listing entry/exit rules I keep muddling around. I think your excellent layout throughout will give me a boost and help me finalise it. At this point I am not clear on things like max daily loss etc. and reading your plan made me realise: I can create a rule and then stick with it rather than worrying about whether or not the rule is perfect. For some reason this is a mini-breakthrough in understanding how to make the plan.

Is that TPO chart a publicly available indy? If so, could you provide reference?

Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #33 (permalink)
 David_R 
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cclsys,

Thanks, I appreciate it. I question whether or not its great. While writing it and making images for it I felt very good about it, but the last few days have been very strong and trendy. Today was not very trendy, so in looking at charts it was not as impressive. I guess we will never find something that is perfect in every situation. The key is to have something written and then follow it, because that is what will help to allow us to fight another day. So, in regards to your comment about not being clear about a max loss etc., you hit the nail on the head. The plan is living and can be modified, but give the rules a chance. I used to define a max loss for myself and I used to go beyond it all the time. Just another in the many mental rules I broke. Hence I've lost more money than I care to think about. Ultimately we need to have the strength and discipline to follow the rules we've created. if we (I) can't do that then I really do think failure is eminent.

The TPO chart is readily available, but not free. It comes from Final| Financial Algorithms and I think is about $250.

David

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 cclsys 
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Well, it is encouraging that indies that cost money are sometimes better ones even though many open source are just as good if not better than so many hustlers out there charge for them.

'mental rules I broke'. That's it. I have been thinking of rules as something external, usually defined as entry and exits etc. even though I have read here and elsewhere that this is not really the point of a complete plan. I understood it intellectually immediately. But I didn't actually get it internally. I think now I have. And it is sort of exciting actually, because then rules are things we control, we choose, we either execute properly or not. So now I am going to go through my plan and look at the whole thing from this pov and also tailor it better in terms of understanding and clarifying how the rules are really choices that I have made and these choices are commitments I am making to myself to execute real time. They are not external things like laws of physics or a military code of conduct handed down from above. They are MY rules which I choose to implement.

I think this is going to get both very hard, very interesting, but by clarifying and having such rules I will start a feedback journey which is the single thing that has been lacking in my recent day-trading career which started about a year or so ago now and which has not yet proven consistently profitable although it got close for a while before I had to stop because of both poor results one month and a seriously worsening dialup connection making things unworkable. That's history. Now I can go forward with (finally) an understanding of the purpose of having a plan. Your post made something click. Thanks again.

PS. On quickly reading through the above after posting I realise that much of what I/we have just been discussing is the internal subject matter of the quote I have in the signature below from Tsun Tzu's Art of War, that twist at the end about Victory being a function of Knowing, i.e. rules are what we ideate, not external objective entities.

Of old the skilled first made themselves invincible to await the enemy's vincibility.
Invincibility lies in oneself. Vincibility lies in the enemy.
Thus the skilled can make themselves invincible.
They cannot cause the enemy's vincibility.
Thus it is said: 'Victory can be known; it cannot be made.'
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  #35 (permalink)
 David_R 
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cclsys View Post
Well, it is encouraging that indies that cost money are sometimes better ones even though many open source are just as good if not better than so many hustlers out there charge for them.

'mental rules I broke'. That's it. I have been thinking of rules as something external, usually defined as entry and exits etc. even though I have read here and elsewhere that this is not really the point of a complete plan. I understood it intellectually immediately. But I didn't actually get it internally. I think now I have. And it is sort of exciting actually, because then rules are things we control, we choose, we either execute properly or not. So now I am going to go through my plan and look at the whole thing from this pov and also tailor it better in terms of understanding and clarifying how the rules are really choices that I have made and these choices are commitments I am making to myself to execute real time. They are not external things like laws of physics or a military code of conduct handed down from above. They are MY rules which I choose to implement.

I think this is going to get both very hard, very interesting, but by clarifying and having such rules I will start a feedback journey which is the single thing that has been lacking in my recent day-trading career which started about a year or so ago now and which has not yet proven consistently profitable although it got close for a while before I had to stop because of both poor results one month and a seriously worsening dialup connection making things unworkable. That's history. Now I can go forward with (finally) an understanding of the purpose of having a plan. Your post made something click. Thanks again.

PS. On quickly reading through the above after posting I realise that much of what I/we have just been discussing is the internal subject matter of the quote I have in the signature below from Tsun Tzu's Art of War, that twist at the end about Victory being a function of Knowing, i.e. rules are what we ideate, not external objective entities.

I've been pleased with the Fin Alg TPO chart. I wanted a Market profile, but did not want market delta or the other expensive options. The one on the forum, imarketprofile_65 may be sufficient, but it was around, or I didn't know about it when I obtained the Fin-Alg version. The free one is nice, but i don't know if you can split the profile or merge days together or not.

Is Tsun Tzu's Art of War the book that Gordon Gekko mentions in the movie Wallstreet?

I'm glad that i was able to make something click.

David

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  #36 (permalink)
 benbrooke 
Dallas,tx
 
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David ,

we saw the plan where is the trades???


Ben

Keep on sowing your seed, for you never know which will grow -- perhaps it all will.

-- Albert Einstein
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  #37 (permalink)
 David_R 
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Ben,

Thanks for checking on me. I find that the best time to take the trades based on my plan are during the open. I have had difficulty with being up at that hour as I am not used to be up that early. I know that is just an excuse, but its all I've got. Also, I am letting the plan sit in my mind for a couple weeks. Mike suggested not changing anything for at least that long. I feel the plan had too many options in it such as minute charts and MedRenko charts etc and I think it should be slimmed down a bit. I will most likely be posting an updated version, but still in alignment with my main methodology.

David

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  #38 (permalink)
 David_R 
San Jose, Ca
 
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I know it's important to journal, so I am back again to do so. I must admit that there are still some lose ends to my plan, but I know that Market Profile is a major part of the my methodology.

I am improving on eliminating the impulsive and revenge trades.

Today i show a number of trades, but not everything. The first was a stop out at B/E from a trade I executed over night. I was up 50 tics, but the bastards took price down and stopped me. thats okay. A because I followed what i wanted to do.

Next i went long, but I was too abrupt and exited on my own for a 6 tic loss. D for that trade.

Next i went long and held on for 75 tics and moved my stop to up. I was up as much as 130 tics, it think. I was following my plan which included a target. Target did not get hit, but I captured 60 tics on the trade. I guess since I followed my plan that is positive, but I lost out on about 70 tics. B for that trade.

I took a couple garbage trades and made 6 or 7 tics. C on those.

One not show is a trade on ES I saw set up so I took it for 1.75 points. I'm discovering I don't really like ES. Way too much wiggles of up and down constantly.

I know CL is a volatile market, but it seems as though it can trend better. I know it has its days.

A very nice day $ wise, but still need to solidify my plan. The thing that I feel is missing is what trigger method to use for entry. Many market profile trades are based on a level and volume and as you can see from the candle with the long wick there isn't a lot of time once price hits a level. Any ideas or suggestions on triggers would be appreciated. So plan wise etc I am improving, but giving myself a C-.

David

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  #39 (permalink)
 David_R 
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Today I took 4 trades. There is info on the chart. 2 long and 2 short. Ended with a loss of $130, but could have been worse.

I try and have a bias based on the MP, but that can mess with my head. I will work on having the bias, but trade what I see. Can't let a bias affect the days activity. Still need to work on patience and waiting. Also, if I go through the work of doing analysis via the MP I should be watching the key areas of S/R and not just trade blind like a fool.

David

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  #40 (permalink)
 ZTR 
 
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David_R View Post
I'm discovering I don't really like ES. Way too much wiggles of up and down constantly.

I know CL is a volatile market, but it seems as though it can trend better. I know it has its days.

David

I agree with you & am frustrated with the ES. Read somewhere that most of the recent moves were after hours and it fits, one of the reasons I'm up at this hour. The 6E is now my favorite instrument.

R.I.P. Andy Zektzer (ZTR), 1960-2010.
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  #41 (permalink)
 David_R 
San Jose, Ca
 
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I did not post Friday. I was ready for the weekend. Friday was a good day in that my faults stuck out like a sore thumb. The stuck out so well it was obvious to me what I am doing wrong many times. I feel I learned something on friday. Ended the day with a small loss of $200. Ended the week with profit which is a fairly new experience for me and give me hope that I'm turning this around. Friday gets a F for the first hour of the day and a C+ for the second part of the day.

Today was a decent day for me. I feel I followed what I consider to be more important rules which have to do with the actual set up. Today raises some questions for me.

1. Is it okay to exit a trade early?
2. should the trading plan allow for this kind of discretion? If I give myself the option of exiting early then it opens the door for more erratic behavior.

I took 3 trades for winners with info on the chart. I'm inclined to grade myself a C because I followed the setup rules, but not the exit rules or defined targets. I felt okay with that because the first trade was initiated long below the futures.io (formerly BMT) Midline and price does respect that line. The 2 other trades where shorts and I exited early. I feel I exited early because I did not want to give back any profit, but also because the Bias is up and a short is counter to that. Ultimately the trade would have worked out for a larger winner, but we don't know that in the beginning. By taking profit I exceeded my daily goal. How should this be handled? Any input is appreciated. C for the last two trades.

David

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  #42 (permalink)
 David_R 
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Obviously I am not posting daily. I know I should, but I am not getting as much review as in the past, so I have been lax in posting.

3/9 was a good day and I rate myself a B.
3/10 was a set back, but manageable. I grade myself a D. Too many trades and the bad habits come to the surface.
3/11 Much better today and rate myself a A for the first hour. There is a pic of a trade set up I took today with methodology in mind. I took a couple other trades, and I should have been done for the day instead. For that I get a F.

I also posted this pic on the CL Market Profile Thread in the Traders Hideout area.

David

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  #43 (permalink)
 benbrooke 
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GREAT JOB!!!!!!!!!!!!!

WTG!

i am so happy for you David ,

now you see how it all comes together

Ben

Keep on sowing your seed, for you never know which will grow -- perhaps it all will.

-- Albert Einstein
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  #44 (permalink)
 David_R 
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Here are a couple trades from Friday 3/19. Info on the chart.

By the way, I neglected to mention that I was trading with Ben Brooke on Friday via skype. He was using the MarketDelta footprint chart to read the orderflow at support and resistance. The combination of Market Profile and the footprint for aiding in the entry is a good one.

David

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  #45 (permalink)
 David_R 
San Jose, Ca
 
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Okay, I admit to being negligent in posting to my journal. To be completely honest as to why, it's because I was doing terrible. Not because of the losses, but because I had funded my account for the umpteenth time and told myself this was going to be the time that was different. I contacted Mike for some coaching and began the process of writing my plan. I then proceeded to not follow my plan or any rules and instead of admitting it here in my journal, I stopped posting.

Ben B., one of the moderators on the forum has always been very generous with feedback and comments on my journal and in other areas of the forum where I have posted. He has been a great influence on me to improve and do what I need to do to become successful in this business. My plan has been updated to be more simplistic. Simplistic in the sense that I don't have paint bar studies and various indicators on the chart. Auction Market Theory is the basis for my trading and the market profile is the tool for reading the auction. I do have the VWAP on a chart as well as the MarketDelta volume breakdown indicator, but that's about it. I still execute through Ninja, but am in Trial with marketdelta and plan to continue with it. I use Marketdelta for the footprint chart as well as the profile. My plan has been updated to reflect fewer setups and the addition of marketdelta.

I still need to work on the mind, but I think it all starts with following the plan.

I've posted a chart for 3/31 where I took an emotional trade and lost. There are a couple winners on there as well as another loser, but at least they were to plan. One trade today, 4/1 that was per plan and worked out very well. I'm happy with myself for not trading emotionally and the trade gets an A. I am disappointed in myself for chickening out on a trade that was per the plan. It works both ways. One needs to follow the rules to not take bad trades as well as follow the rules to participate in the good trades.

Plan your trades and trade your plan.

David

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  #46 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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David,

The charts posted above are very good. Are these the only ones you are using though? I'm thinking no, based on the trading plan there are several others. Let me know.

I like the 3-trades a day rule. If you are trading more than 1 lot per target, I suggest cutting it to just 1. Don't focus on net profit right now. Focus on minimizing losses while you prove that you can trade your plan, and that doing so yields the trades you were expecting. Profits can be adjusted later.

I took your first screen shot and marked up what I saw in the red box:



Going from left to right, the far left (bottom) we made a lower low. Uh oh, our uptrend is in danger. Then we made a higher high, ok, there is uncertainty here. Then we made a lower high, ok our uptrend is now really very much in danger, and the final straw was the lower low where it broke down and collpased.

I share this only because I know our two trade styles are very different. For instance, you took a short four bars before my red box, something I would never do with my setup because I would expect the short to fail and a higher low to be made -- until proven otherwise, continuing the up trend.

But everything is subjective. Where do you calculate the HH and HL, LH and LL, what 'strength' etc. All subjective.

You also took a short before this, around 7:40am, that I would not have taken and it obviously worked well for you.

So my question is, are you taking both "with trend" and "counter trend" setups? I know you may find trend subjective, and hard to answer. But I always caution against trading both ways simultaneously, it is so easy to miss the right setup while you are taking a stop on the wrong one, whereas if you focus on being either long or short, but not both, at any given time, I find it clarifies things.

Mike

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  #47 (permalink)
 fiki 
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great tradingplan. but i didn´t get the trigger. i have worked a lot with my triggers and entries. for instance my trigger is the close of the range chart bar i trade of. the great thing with the rangebar is that i know where it will close. then i enter with a stop order or a stop limit order -1. the god thing with the stop order is that i´m guarantied the poisition the bad is that i give up a tick since the next range bar opens 1 tick above. this gives me less profit and bigger SL. and that tick adds up if you do the math. using -1 gives me the right price but i´m not guarantied the position. sometimes if orderflow is strong i try to frontrun the close and under some conditions i enter with limit the next bar betting on a pullback to the signalbar´s vpoc. the point here is i have it in my plan so when everything lines up i know what to do. mostly i use the -1 stop. less stress...

so what is your trigger and how do you enter (limit, market...)?

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 emini_Holy_Grail 
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David
can you pl re save that trading plan file in work 2003 or 2000
I dont have new word version so couldnt open file

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 rassi 
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i really think your going in the right direction here david, great stuff wishing you the best...

would be good to see what you saw on the footprint at those entrys?

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 David_R 
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Big Mike View Post
David,

The charts posted above are very good. Are these the only ones you are using though? I'm thinking no, based on the trading plan there are several others. Let me know.

I like the 3-trades a day rule. If you are trading more than 1 lot per target, I suggest cutting it to just 1. Don't focus on net profit right now. Focus on minimizing losses while you prove that you can trade your plan, and that doing so yields the trades you were expecting. Profits can be adjusted later.

I took your first screen shot and marked up what I saw in the red box:



Going from left to right, the far left (bottom) we made a lower low. Uh oh, our uptrend is in danger. Then we made a higher high, ok, there is uncertainty here. Then we made a lower high, ok our uptrend is now really very much in danger, and the final straw was the lower low where it broke down and collpased.

I share this only because I know our two trade styles are very different. For instance, you took a short four bars before my red box, something I would never do with my setup because I would expect the short to fail and a higher low to be made -- until proven otherwise, continuing the up trend.

But everything is subjective. Where do you calculate the HH and HL, LH and LL, what 'strength' etc. All subjective.

You also took a short before this, around 7:40am, that I would not have taken and it obviously worked well for you.

So my question is, are you taking both "with trend" and "counter trend" setups? I know you may find trend subjective, and hard to answer. But I always caution against trading both ways simultaneously, it is so easy to miss the right setup while you are taking a stop on the wrong one, whereas if you focus on being either long or short, but not both, at any given time, I find it clarifies things.

Mike

Hi Mike,

Thanks for commenting. I do use other charts such as a 30 or 60 minute, a daily and a weekly. Those are mainly for seeing the bigger picture as well as areas of support and resistance.

I am only trading 1 lot per target.

Yes, I am taking both with trend and counter trend setups and I question that myself as well. The struggle I have with this is that it depends on the time frame. From what I have seen, some of the best setups via the Auction are going to be a counter trend trade on the time frame that you enter on. Its counter intuitive and makes it difficult to pull the trigger, but from an Auction perspective it does make logical sense to me The more I see it play out the more confidence I will have in taking the trades. The 7:40 trade did work out and on some level I would agree with you about that trade. In actuality I should have been think long somewhere around the 6:50am time frame on the chart you marked up. If I had I wouldn't have been stopped out on the short and most likely I wouldn't have taken the other short that was a winner and counter trend. If I was able to hold the trade long enough I may not have taken the short at 7:40 that worked or the one before your red box. I may have been done for the day. I've attached a chart to show why a long at 6:50 may have been indicated. I've also attached a picture for 4/1 where the same kind of setup occurred that I did not take.

Before I jump to that though i want to comment on the area in the red box. That area and the trade just prior to the box are basically during the so called doldrums. I need to make a decision as to whether or not I trade during that time. I know good opportunities can be missed, but I'm okay with that. At least I think I am. :-) At the time where the market fell hard was post doldrums and I don't know if I would have caught that or not, but if I was sitting out during 9-11 I would have not taken the short that failed.

I don't know if I've addressed your main points. I think you make a good point about trading both long and short, but with ATM it seems that both directions can present itself unless its a strong trend in one direction. At a minimum it would be best to wait for the extremes instead of taking the counter trend intra-day trades in the middle of the range. We never know what will happen, though. For example, a zig zag or gartley pattern will present itself as a change of trend, but in reality it is just a correction in the larger degree trend.

I've also attached another chart with only candles and volume on it. I'm not an expert by any means, but I have studied some VSA and went through the chart for 3/31. I find doing this in real time difficult, but some are very good at it. If one were to take trades based on VSA they could be considered counter trend. I actually saw the long set up on 4/1 on a 5 minute with both MarketDelta and just the candle and volume chart and wussed out on the trade. Ben went long and got a decent scalp out of it, but in reality there is probably more than 10 tics in the trade and there was. It just take big B's to sit through the oscillation.

Sorry to go on so long. I didn't mean to turn this into such a long reply, but I was trying to explain why I'm doing things the way I do.

Fiki gave me a quote out of Stiedlemyer book. I don't have the exact quote, but it goes something like this. Don't take the easy trades, take the difficult trades. The easy trades will most likely be the bad ones and the difficult ones will be the ones that workout great. The difficult trades are the trades at extremes

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fiki View Post
great tradingplan. but i didn´t get the trigger. i have worked a lot with my triggers and entries. for instance my trigger is the close of the range chart bar i trade of. the great thing with the rangebar is that i know where it will close. then i enter with a stop order or a stop limit order -1. the god thing with the stop order is that i´m guarantied the poisition the bad is that i give up a tick since the next range bar opens 1 tick above. this gives me less profit and bigger SL. and that tick adds up if you do the math. using -1 gives me the right price but i´m not guarantied the position. sometimes if orderflow is strong i try to frontrun the close and under some conditions i enter with limit the next bar betting on a pullback to the signalbar´s vpoc. the point here is i have it in my plan so when everything lines up i know what to do. mostly i use the -1 stop. less stress...

so what is your trigger and how do you enter (limit, market...)?


Fiki,

Great question and this has been an area that I have struggled with. When I read my own plan I realized I did not have a trigger described. Ben Brooke has been helping me with this and I think it is similar to what you do. For example, if the trade sets up and we get the 2B pattern where price makes a new high (this would be for a short) the signal bar is the bar that made the new high. I think what Ben is suggesting I do is use a sell stop 1 tic below the POC of the signal bar. One tic above for a long. I'm using 7 range bars on the YM. Does this make sense?

David

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emini_Holy_Grail View Post
David
can you pl re save that trading plan file in work 2003 or 2000
I dont have new word version so couldnt open file

EHG,

I added a version of the trade plan in word 97-03. You had written Work, so I wasn't sure if you wanted it saved as a Works doc or Word 03 doc. Let me know if I gave you the wrong thing.

D

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rassi View Post
i really think your going in the right direction here david, great stuff wishing you the best...

would be good to see what you saw on the footprint at those entrys?


Rassi,

Thanks, i do appreciate the comments. I sure hope this is the right direction, it feels right for me. I tried to get you a footprint chart for the trades indicated, but MD is being picky about letting me go back in time that far. i think footprint charts take a lot of computing power. I will post footprint charts on future trades.

David

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 Eric j 
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Don't take the easy trades, take the difficult trades. The easy trades will most likely be the bad ones and the difficult ones will be the ones that workout great. The difficult trades are the trades at extremes

I agree , the stinkers are easy to get into . In the past Ive hesitated to enter eventual big winners and jumped the gun on quick losers and its one of the first bad habits I had to break . If you follow the sequences and details in your plan and get stopped out a few times it makes it difficult to stay with the plan and if you bend the rules of your plan and catch some winners it makes following the plan difficult . In the end it is best to define that plan as best you can and stick with it until you have enough data to evaluate it and adjust it slowly , it might hurt a little but in the end it will benefit you even if at first its just having bragging rights for sticking to it .

Jeff Quinto says ; " Pay the price of dicipline or pay the price of regret " . In my experience all traders have to pay one of those two things and you are better off choosing one or the other and accepting it .

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 rassi 
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The sayings I have always thought best describes this are "the best trade is closest to being the worst trade" or "the trade that is right is the closest to being wrong"

This is just and expression of initial risk, as was davids trading at extreemes.

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 David_R 
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I can't believe I'm going to say this, but today was a great day. Not because I had 3 winning trades and made a lot of money, but because I followed my plan. In doing so I only had one trade today. It wasn't a huge winner, but I'm going to set that aspect aside since Big Mike says not to grades ones self on profitability. Today gets an A. I do have to give Ben Brooke a lot of the credit because he has helped me a great deal.

Today's trade was a bounce of the the 4/1 POC. Could have taken more out of it, but that's okay. I show the profile, the volume chart and the footprint as well as the Ninja markers.

David

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David_R View Post
I can't believe I'm going to say this, but today was a great day. Not because I had 3 winning trades and made a lot of money, but because I followed my plan. In doing so I only had one trade today. It wasn't a huge winner, but I'm going to set that aspect aside since Big Mike says not to grades ones self on profitability. Today gets an A. I do have to give Ben Brooke a lot of the credit because he has helped me a great deal.

Today's trade was a bounce of the the 4/1 POC. Could have taken more out of it, but that's okay. I show the profile, the volume chart and the footprint as well as the Ninja markers.

David

Awesome, great job! Now just one day at a time, don't get ahead of yourself and don't try to out "big picture" yourself



Mike

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Big Mike View Post
Awesome, great job! Now just one day at a time, don't get ahead of yourself and don't try to out "big picture" yourself



Mike

Mike,

Thanks, I appreciate the support. What do you mean by don't out "big picture" myself?

D

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David_R View Post
Mike,

Thanks, I appreciate the support. What do you mean by don't out "big picture" myself?

D

Don't place emphasis on making money. Don't look at today and say "I can't pay the bills with this" and try to ramp up. Just focus on stringing together two days of executing your plan 100%. Then three days, then a week. After a couple weeks of perfect execution of your plan your P&L should speak for itself.

Mike

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 David_R 
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Hi All,

Well, today was another very good day even though for most of the day the action was crappy.
Only two trades today. The first I exited at B/E. I give myself a C because my plan does not address trades that are not moving in your favor. If action is choppy and the trade does not begin to move how much time should one give the trade? I would think some time limit either in minutes or bars is needed. Ben B. helped me out on this one today otherwise I may have taken a full stop.

Trade two presented itself as a pretty good setup, but once again the action was not very convincing. There were many indications to take the trade, but after entering there was never any velocity or momentum. I did get +10 on 2 and +15 on 1. I had set initial targets based on VWAP and value, but moved them based on how much time it took for the move. One thing about this trade is that I got in at the very high at 10927 and I did because in addition to the other indications there were 700 contracts at the ASK on the DOM. This is unusual for YM from what I have seen. I viewed this as resting supply. The orders were not being added and removed, just resting there, so it added to the setup. I thank Fiki for suggesting to look at the DOM at "key" levels.

In regards to trade management how do you handle a trade that sets up nicely, but the result is lack luster. Do you stick with targets as planned or adjust? This needs to be addressed in my plan. Of course just after I moved my target my initial first target location was hit. I give myself a C for this trade because I don't address the management of a slow mover in my plan, assuming it should be.

Overall for the day I will take a B. Only two trades, so no over trading and other than the trade management aspect i followed the rules. I thank Ben B. as well for the continued support.

D

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 David_R 
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I really don't want to post today, but I committed to myself that I would keep a journal.

Ben B has been mentoring me and I felt I was making some improvements as can be seen in the last few posts. Today i traded alone and things fell apart. I lacked the confidence in the trades and ended up messing with them once in. The morning should have been very profitable and I should have been done before 9AM pacific time. Unfortunately that did not happen. Once I messed up the first trade and it moved with out me it just continued. I guess I should have called it quits for the day, but kept thinking I could recover some losses. Nope. Anyway, one chart. Not really in the mood to make details of footprint charts and volume charts of divergences etc., so I just show the Ninja chart with markers and my levels to trade for the day.

I did my homework the night before and selected my levels off the market profile. The market traded to the levels and planned, but the execution and management was another story. No winners today. Today is an F-- in every and all facets.

D

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David,

Congrats are in order for posting. It is hard to do, but you will surely benefit from it in the long run. Each day you report a bad day to the journal, the next day you will bear that in mind and focus more on doing a good job.

Even if you have days and days and days of losers, it is all very beneficial. It will help you realize the method itself is not working the way you had planned, assuming you are giving yourself "A" grades for its execution. If your execution is below B, then perhaps the method works but you still need more time to trade it well.

Either way, you benefit from everything you are doing here. So I strongly encourage you to keep it up, it will be well worth it!

Mike

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 Big Mike 
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BTW,

I wanted to also say that trading with a buddy is a really great tool, assuming they have a similar style as you. You've got to be open and honest with them, preferably you can see their DOM/trades and they can see yours. Then you share your rules with each other and that extra accountability can really help.

I posted a story about this in my advice thread a few weeks ago (was talking about Gary and I trading together) and how amazing the psychology is and how much and how strongly it works against you.

Mike

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 David_R 
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The saga continues and so does the not so good outcome. Today I grade myself a D overall. The first problem is I was not up in time to catch the open and a long setup at one of my predefined levels. The second problem is that I traded more than my plan defines. The third problem is i traded a 2 setups not in my plan, a breakout of the high of day and a double top at the high of day. But of course the main problem is me. Like yesterday just one chart.

The text got cut off, but the third level to trade today was yesterdays POC at 10884

D

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David,

Why did you trade the last two trades of the day?

Mike

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 David_R 
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David,

Why did you trade the last two trades of the day?

Mike

Mike, the first one, the long I "thought" we would get a higher high. The market was strong all day and I have been burned more times than I care to admit shorting into strong moves up. Of course it was more of a fakeout and I know that it was a bad trade to take and I do kick myself for taking it. The second one of the last two, was based on the red candle that closed on its low, but at one time was higher than the green candle before it. The red candle also had more volume than the green up candle, so I felt selling was coming. This is more VSA stuff which for some reason I can't get out of my head and is not supposed to be part of my plan. Additionally, I think I took the last trade because I was pissed and frustrated because I watched the market move 100 points with out me all day and nothing in my plan helped me to participate except for the opening area of 10790 which I missed.

D

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 Big Mike 
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David,

It seems that 90% of your reply was trying to defend your position to take the trades. Only the very last sentence of the reply is the real reason you took them.

You said yourself in your first post that you didn't follow your plan. My question was to stimulate you to determine why you didn't follow your plan.

It is only when you start to clearly recognize, as you did in the final sentence of your reply, the true reasons you break your own rules that you will be able to catch yourself prior to doing so in the future.

For instance, after a lot of work specifically in this area you will still have a desire to overtrade and a desire to trade emotionally. But, you will also be able to stop yourself by clearly remembering all the times that you broke your rules before, and the outcome and result of doing so.

This is why some say (myself included) that one of the worst things that a trader can experience is negative reinforcement. For instance, two big winners on those trades where you broke your rules. This will set you back a long way and it takes a lot of work to realize that you have rules for a reason. You must trade your rules. You can change the rules if you want, 1 or 2 rules at a time no sooner than every 2 weeks, but you should trade your rules as exact as possible in the meantime.

I know you know this stuff already. I'm trying to empower you to change and find what you need to break the cycle.

Mike

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 David_R 
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David,

It seems that 90% of your reply was trying to defend your position to take the trades. Only the very last sentence of the reply is the real reason you took them.

You said yourself in your first post that you didn't follow your plan. My question was to stimulate you to determine why you didn't follow your plan.

It is only when you start to clearly recognize, as you did in the final sentence of your reply, the true reasons you break your own rules that you will be able to catch yourself prior to doing so in the future.

For instance, after a lot of work specifically in this area you will still have a desire to overtrade and a desire to trade emotionally. But, you will also be able to stop yourself by clearly remembering all the times that you broke your rules before, and the outcome and result of doing so.

This is why some say (myself included) that one of the worst things that a trader can experience is negative reinforcement. For instance, two big winners on those trades where you broke your rules. This will set you back a long way and it takes a lot of work to realize that you have rules for a reason. You must trade your rules. You can change the rules if you want, 1 or 2 rules at a time no sooner than every 2 weeks, but you should trade your rules as exact as possible in the meantime.

I know you know this stuff already. I'm trying to empower you to change and find what you need to break the cycle.

Mike

Mike,

Thank you for the feedback. I appreciate it a great deal and that's not BS. I think I may have taken your question to literally. It certainly wasn't my intention to defend or justify taking those trades. I thought when you asked why I took them you wanted to know the thought process, but of course that really isn't important.

"It is only when you start to clearly recognize, as you did in the final sentence of your reply, the true reasons you break your own rules that you will be able to catch yourself prior to doing so in the future." I totally agree with your statement and I am hopeful that recognizing these reasons and documenting it that it will help me in catching myself in the future.

Thank again,

D

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FuturesTrader99
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Additionally, I think I took the last trade because I was pissed and frustrated because I watched the market move 100 points with out me all day and nothing in my plan helped me to participate except for the opening area of 10790 which I missed.

Hi David,

Been there done that, I can totally relate. There's billions upon billions of dollars sloshing around in this market, moving back and forth like there's no tomorrow, and all we can manage to capture is a few pennies here and there ..... if we're lucky.
Would you believe me if I told you I used to make around 50 trades per day trying to chase those elusive institutional money ? The only one who got rich was my broker.
I still fight the urge to overtrade to this very day. I never gave the idea of journalling any serious consideration until I came across this forum. It's tedious, time consuming, and a lot of work for what I previously thought was little reward. But I've come to the realization that all paths do lead to Rome. In other words, consistency is the holy grail. Chasing is reactive. Planning is proactive. Sounds cliche, but you really do have make it a habit to begin with the end in mind. What do you really want, and how serious are you to committing to attaining it?
I believe everyone's journey towards becoming a successful trader must go through what it personally means to them to be consistent. Day in, day out. For some, it comes easy to them, for they have a natural talent for this vocation. For myself, I need to work at it not because I don't have the skill set, but because I have all this other "stuff". That is how the light bulb clicked with me, which motivated me enough to start the journalling, so I can shine the scope on what baggage I am carrying and how do deal with it. Those problems will never go away until I figure out how to deal with them.
We are competing with black boxes on the other side of the trade. The least we can do is execute consistently, almost like the machines........

Sorry if I've sounded too preachy......

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 rassi 
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Sometimes when you try to ride a horse after a donkey I throws you off a few times, it doesn't hurt too much but makes you more determined to ride it properly as you know its much better than that old donkey your used to!

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 David_R 
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Hi David,

Been there done that, I can totally relate. There's billions upon billions of dollars sloshing around in this market, moving back and forth like there's no tomorrow, and all we can manage to capture is a few pennies here and there ..... if we're lucky.
Would you believe me if I told you I used to make around 50 trades per day trying to chase those elusive institutional money ? The only one who got rich was my broker.
I still fight the urge to overtrade to this very day. I never gave the idea of journalling any serious consideration until I came across this forum. It's tedious, time consuming, and a lot of work for what I previously thought was little reward. But I've come to the realization that all paths do lead to Rome. In other words, consistency is the holy grail. Chasing is reactive. Planning is proactive. Sounds cliche, but you really do have make it a habit to begin with the end in mind. What do you really want, and how serious are you to committing to attaining it?
I believe everyone's journey towards becoming a successful trader must go through what it personally means to them to be consistent. Day in, day out. For some, it comes easy to them, for they have a natural talent for this vocation. For myself, I need to work at it not because I don't have the skill set, but because I have all this other "stuff". That is how the light bulb clicked with me, which motivated me enough to start the journalling, so I can shine the scope on what baggage I am carrying and how do deal with it. Those problems will never go away until I figure out how to deal with them.
We are competing with black boxes on the other side of the trade. The least we can do is execute consistently, almost like the machines........

Sorry if I've sounded too preachy......

FT,

You didn't sound preachy at all. If your willing to take the time to give feedback, advice, criticism, encouragement or any other communication on my Journal it greatly appreciated. I do appreciate the comments.

David

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 David_R 
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No chart today. Took a mental day off from trading.

D

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 ZTR 
 
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I do not know what others will tell you, but I have days I can not trade. Read my journal, it will be obvious why. I am planning on taking a few hours and running replay before the market opens again this weekend. Pick a day a while back, one you do not remember, load a time you know that instrument is active and sim trade it.

I know it is not the same but it should be. Mike and I had this discussion in the skype room the other day. See what you would do if there is not the pressure to be right all the time.

Understand your decisions and what setups you are using work, and what % of the time they do work. Real money is different, but that does not mean you don't have to practice.

R.I.P. Andy Zektzer (ZTR), 1960-2010.
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 David_R 
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Taking Friday off plus the weekend helped me to calm down and try and focus.

I think it was a page or two back in this thread, I think, but someone made the comment that being an over-trader, or a trader that lacks discipline and does revenge trades is very much like a a recovering alcoholic. A a recovering alcoholic is always in recovery and has to take it one day at a time. One drink can destroy weeks, months or even years of work to stay sober. I'm not an alcoholic, but I certainly feel that way when it comes to trading. It is a struggle and a challenge to sit and wait and do nothing while the market moves 10 tics in 3 hours. Its like having two little characters, one on each shoulder, telling you opposite things to do. The bad one that is a trouble maker and says.."...go ahead, take a trade. you can make up some sort of setup here and justify it. Just get in." The other one is the nice one and is the one that helps write the trading plan and says..."..you don't have a setup here. Your not at one of your levels from your home work nor are you at a VWAP band, and the market is stagnant. Sit on your hands and wait."

No, I'm not nuts. :-)

Today was a good day. 2 trades that were both part of my plan. I'm only using 2 contracts for now with a target of 7-10 tics for one and trying to just hold the second. Not sure if that concept is good or not, but that is what I was trying to do today. I feel very good about today, but since things are still a work in progress I give myself a B for each trade and a B+ for the day as a whole.

There is a bonus chart of the CL for something I was watching/testing. It follows my methodology of trading AMT using the market profile. Very nice setup in the CL. The CL chart is also posted in the CL Market Profile Thread.

David

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 Big Mike 
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David,

That's a bold post and hopefully a breakthrough as well.

Why do alcoholics drink? Well, not speaking from experience I can only hypothesize that they drink to eliminate or reduce the pains and burdens of life.

Why do they drink to excess or why are they unable to stop drinking? Because it felt better to drink than it felt to not drink.

You can make the same argument for cigarette smokers, right? Why do people smoke? Why do they keep smoking even with overwhelming information in front of them about the risks? Why are they unable to stop smoking?

You've heard people say "it's a bad habit" in a shrugged-off response to some question they receive about why they do something that they shouldn't. The person knows its a habit, they know it's bad, but they keep doing it.

I think that there are many parallels in trading. Maybe a trader has averaged down in the past and been rewarded for it. This is like the alcoholic having another drink or the smoker having another cigarette. By averaging down, they've lessened the pain and/or completely not faced the pain at all of taking a stop. For the drinker, that extra drink keeps them feeling good. Without the extra drink, they would start to return to a state where they feel pain. I think the same is true of smoking, although I think the addictiveness of smoking is much different than alcoholism.

I can't speak from experience either way, as I'm not an alcoholic and I don't smoke. But, I can speak from experience with trading.

Your analogy of a recovering alcoholic vs. a revenge trader is a good one. It's also an exercise in proper risk/money/trade management. When the recovering alcoholic takes a drink, they've destroyed all that hard work they fought for. When a trader enters a position they shouldn't have, they destroy the profits for the day/week/month.

Then there is risk for adding to the losing position, right? The thinking of "well, I've completely fallen off the ladder, I'm a drunk, there is no hope for me, why stop at just one drink? Let's go full tilt." The same is true of trading -- "well f@#$ I just made this incredibly stupid trade and taken a stop, I just need a quick trade to get back to even". Naturally that doesn't work because every impulsive decision you make after the initial mistake will just lead to more loss and more pain, and more impulsive decisions.

It's these actions that describe a trader on tilt, because emotions take over and you are no longer making educated, planned decisions but instead are reacting to things that have no place in trading.

That is why journaling is such a crucial process and important step for the successful trader. It doesn't matter if you are Bob trying to make $100 a day, or Joe running a billion dollar fund. Bob may have a tiny scrap piece of paper or an Excel workbook, and Joe may have an entire floor of statisticians and analysts. In both cases, however, Bob and Joe must equally learn from their past trades and performance in order to make better trades in the future.

Without such a process traders get lost in the maze and never break the cycle. They never come to the realization that they, themselves, are to blame for their losses. Instead they keep searching for that "filter" to add to their chart to keep them out of losing trades, or they keep searching for a new instrument to trade because their old one isn't moving well, or they keep changing time frames because the bigger time frame is too much risk but the smaller time frame is too fast.

Notice the pattern: they always seek change elsewhere, never within. And it is this pattern that you must seek to identify then stop in order to be successful.

Mike

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  #76 (permalink)
 David_R 
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Then there is risk for adding to the losing position, right? The thinking of "well, I've completely fallen off the ladder, I'm a drunk, there is no hope for me, why stop at just one drink? Let's go full tilt." The same is true of trading -- "well f@#$ I just made this incredibly stupid trade and taken a stop, I just need a quick trade to get back to even". Naturally that doesn't work because every impulsive decision you make after the initial mistake will just lead to more loss and more pain, and more impulsive decisions.

Me to a T. I have done this more than once. Its almost like that attitude of "I'll show you. I'll put on another trade right now with more size..." Works like a charm. ;-)

Mike, I didn't consider the post as being bold, but I know what you mean. With your advice and support I'm trying to be transparent with my postings. No embarrassment and no holding back. It seems necessary to make the progress I want.

I think the analogy of revenge trading and the recovering alcoholic is a good one as well. I can't take credit for it because someone else made the reference. It kind of hit home with me because their comments made sense. I'm not an alcoholic either, but I feel I have similar patterns with my trading. Its my understanding that alcoholism has a genetic component to it, so it can be beyond difficult to quit. It is very interesting how ones demons manifest themselves, or come to the surface. From alcoholism, drugs and gambling, many have issues with these things. Many have issues with trading and maybe its because it brings out all the baggage. The use of alcohol and drugs are used to mask the demons and it snowballs into a big problem. Not sure how gambling fits in, but I guess one can get a high from that as well.

Without such a process traders get lost in the maze and never break the cycle. They never come to the realization that they, themselves, are to blame for their losses. Instead they keep searching for that "filter" to add to their chart to keep them out of losing trades, or they keep searching for a new instrument to trade because their old one isn't moving well, or they keep changing time frames because the bigger time frame is too much risk but the smaller time frame is too fast.

Notice the pattern: they always seek change elsewhere, never within. And it is this pattern that you must seek to identify then stop in order to be successful.


Do I notice the pattern? I've done just what you've described. Lets try forex. Lets add a keltner channel. Lets at a fast and slow stochastic. Opps, need one more moving average. Screw forex, how about oil.

Thanks for your comments and support, Mike. I hope I am breaking through as well.

David

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 Eric j 
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The reason to point out recovering addicts is to show that you need to be cognizant of your weaknesses and to control them , thats all . An addict is always an addict no matter what for the rest of their lives but can function perfectly well despite it . This analogy relates to trading ( my trading ) because my addiction is - lack of consistency . I couldnt stick to one regime for more than one day EVEN IF IT WAS PROFITABLE and I had no way to measure if anything I applied to the market had a statistical edge . After I confronted this and just picked one plain vanilla , average joe , run of the mill method with defined rules and variables that I could repeat over and over again I felt calm and focused trading . So like the addict , which is what someone that switches methods regularly without a clear reason to do so is , I know that I need to be extremely careful when I feel the need to change my approach and I make changes according to what works and what I can make work for me because I have samples to measure and proof of why I should change something .

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 David_R 
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Took only one trade today. Unfortunately it wasn't when the market was screaming lower or higher. I was up kind of late, so didn't get up for the early morning. I decided to try the last hour or two. I took the one trade off the VWAP and after moving my stop to B/E +1 it stopped me out. Instead of forcing it I decided to stop for the day.

D

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 David_R 
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Trades for 4/14/2010.

I wasn't feeling 100% this morning, but not bad enough that i couldn't get up. There isint anything in my plan about being sick or not feeling well, so i didn't break any rules, but maybe there should be something in there. Excluding profit and loss, today was a good day. I took two trades that are in my plan and lost on both. They were basically the same set up at the same location only minutes a part. the second attempt was made because I thought the pullback decided just to go a bit deeper than it had the first time. I was pretty disappointed that both trades went against me and fairly quickly and I was already down enough to be done for the day, so I stopped. Plus mentally after that I really didn't have the desire to continue. Its funny how things work out though because the next setup was at a level I had predefined and turned out to be a great level. But it went without me. The other funny thing that peaked my spirits is that it turned out I had my Ninja DOM on SIM, so the two losing trades were not real money.

Today raised a question for me and that is do I want to have the VWAP trades as part of my plan, or should I just stick to the Market Profile levels, or only take VWAP trades if one of the bands is coincident with a MP level. The tade around 7:15 am pacific was coincident with the prior days high and a predefined level of 10980.

I believe my patience to wait for good setups is still something that I need to work on. I am trading less often now, but still seem to eager to get in.

I also posted on the CL market profile thread and the Market Delta thread a CL trade that I almost took. It is not part of my plan to trade CL, so I had to talk myself out of pulling the trigger. I had the mouse on the buy level and almost did it, but stopped. Even though it moved 200 ticks in my favor, its better that I followed my plan.

David

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 David_R 
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One chart of trades today. A frustrating day. Too many trades was one problem and I seem to have the direction correct, but my stop placement took me out of several good trades. Hind sight is a wonderful thing because I can see how nice the trade would have worked if I'd only had a stop 5 tics more. I'm speechless...

After a conversation with Ben B., and per his suggestion, I went and marked up another chart that shows what I did that was counter to my plan. I skipped trades that were part of my plan and took trades that are not. Big mistakes on my part. The trades that were per plan that didn't work were basically poorly managed on my part. Upon entering a trade I put my stop just below the current low at the time which in most cases was about a 6 tic stop. Doing this doesn't allow for any wiggle room in price. If I had followed my plan and used a reasonable stop of 15 YM points I would have done my by following my rules that are in my plan and would have been rewarded with a profitable day.

I have feel that i have struggled for so long that I fear taking a loss and even the potential loss. Its ironic that I end up losing even when correct in my decisions due to the tight, unrealistic stop.

D

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 David_R 
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No chart for Friday the 16th. I did not trade.

Additionally, it looks as though the time has come to take a break from trading. One main reason is I am under capitalized and that alone makes it hard to trade. Also, i have some other personal challenges such as not having had a full-time job for over a year and a half and since I am not a profitable trader, I am not trading for a living. It looks like I need to sell my home and then see what happens from there. I hope to be back and one day trade for a living.

D

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 fiki 
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Sorry to hear about your personal problems. I´ve enjoyed following your trading. But i think your´re doing the right thing. Learning to trade is hard. Doing it under the pressuare of the circumstances you´re describing must be much much harder since trading is such a mental game. The market will still be here when u get back on track and feel ready to trade again.

Good luck, and i truely hope everything workes out for u.

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 Big Mike 
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David,

I am very sorry to read your above post.

But, like fiki said, I think you are doing the right thing. Trading cannot be "forced", and it can't be done on your schedule. Right now, you've got other obligations of a higher priority that require your attention, and trading will have to wait. This is the proper way to handle the situation.

I hope that once you get back on your feet you will be able to put together another stake and come back and try to make trading work for you as a professional career to end all other careers To that end, have a great journey and I hope you and your family prosper!

Mike

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 David_R 
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fiki View Post
Sorry to hear about your personal problems. I´ve enjoyed following your trading. But i think your´re doing the right thing. Learning to trade is hard. Doing it under the pressuare of the circumstances you´re describing must be much much harder since trading is such a mental game. The market will still be here when u get back on track and feel ready to trade again.

Good luck, and i truely hope everything workes out for u.

Fiki,

Thanks for comments, I appreciate it.

David

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 David_R 
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Big Mike View Post
David,

I am very sorry to read your above post.

But, like fiki said, I think you are doing the right thing. Trading cannot be "forced", and it can't be done on your schedule. Right now, you've got other obligations of a higher priority that require your attention, and trading will have to wait. This is the proper way to handle the situation.

I hope that once you get back on your feet you will be able to put together another stake and come back and try to make trading work for you as a professional career to end all other careers To that end, have a great journey and I hope you and your family prosper!

Mike

Mike,

Thanks for the support. I appreciate the comments. I hope to be back as well. I will probably try and continue with the CL market profile thread to keep involved in some way. I enjoy doing it and I hope that some benefit from the analysis.

David

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 rassi 
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Hi David,

I echo the sentiments of Fiki and BigMike, fwiw your posts have always been useful and informative and I believe that you are fully equipped to make it in this profession as and when you have the resources to do so. All the best.

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 David_R 
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Hello Everyone,

Well, in the coming Months or Weeks I hope to give trading a try again. It may be sim and it may be live or a combination of the two. My goal is to trade well based on my plan. I'm calling myself an intra-day trend trader. I no longer want to try to predict what will happen. Therefore, I intend to trade in the direction of the current trend. I will be using multiple Time frames to do this as well as support and resistance from higher time frame charts such as the 60 minute and the daily. I will also most likely use Market profile to find support and resistance as well, but not in great detail. In other words, I am not trading market profile levels in and of themselves, but if levels act and S/R and a trade sets up I will take it.

I am using some indicators. I have gone back and forth on this and I know that there are many opinions regarding using a naked chart. It is always said we should use what speaks to us and what works for one may not work for others. The use of these indicators will help me to filter trades and I think frames price very well.

My plan is not done yet, but I am posting a chart of the basic set up. This shows 4 charts, but it could be two or three. I'm showing 4 for illustration purposes with some setups. It can be Tick, Minute or volume charts. I will most likely change up the charts a little where I put the previous days H,L,C as well as my own S/R lines , pivots on say a 5 minute.

Now, I need to say that I did not develop this methodology. I've seen various components of the method on some free websites, but the specifics of the methodology comes from efuturevision.com and a trader that goes by Trader Rick. I'm not selling or pitching the website, but I am disclosing where I obtained the method shown. I have asked permission to show charts, and he said I could do so as well as give some detail, but he has asked that I don't give specific settings or certain details. efuturevision.com does not sell books, tapes, indicators, webinars or a trading room. The main aspect of the site are the various training videos of setups that Rick has either learned from others and expanded on or created himself. There is a one time fee for lifetime access. I believe he provides one of the training videos for free as well and he has video updates a couple times a week that are free as well. I think the video updates appear on the front page of the site. If you want to see a variation of the setup I'm showing watch his current video. It is free.

Setup:

1. 3/10/16 MACD or LBR Osc: first cross of slow line ( he said I could provide the info on this indy)

2. Fast line crosses baseline for conservative trade and does not for aggressive trade.

3. MA a above MA b for a long and MA a below MA b for a short.

4. Minimum of 2 time frames in alignment. This means that the core time frame where the set up has occurred plus the 3X time frame higher.

5. Trend is determined by the direction of moving average b.

6. There are a number of entry methods that can be employed. Price action such as taking out the high of the low bar for a long, inside bar break, a tag of the MA or the channel line (this is an aggressive entry, but if channel line has a steep slope and is tagged it can be and excellent entry), Trend line break.

7. Stops: below/above entry bar or prior swing.

8. Target prior swing high, fibs extensions, consolidation zones, MP areas such as high volume.

By the way, yes, I think this was a trend day that I show in the example. There may have been some shorts as well, but to get a clearer idea of the method a trending day was better. On a non trend day smaller timeframes may be useful to get a trade or just don't trade. I show the YM, but I find that CL may work well with this because of the size of the moves and it moves often.

Feel free to ask question if you like.

David

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 Big Mike 
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David,

To be honest, I'm not sure what to think.

You've always been a great asset to futures.io (formerly BMT). That much I do know. I also know your a very smart guy, and I know that you have a passion for trading. You are determined, you are not a quitter.

I also know you've had some problems in the past with trading poorly. But, as I recall, those problems had little to do with your method and mostly to do with your execution. Psychological problems, in other words. You could also say that you had a huge amount of sim or chart reading experience, but not enough live trading experience with the proper tools in hand. I think that you need to live trade enough, with the proper tools, to give yourself a chance to overcome what comes naturally. Trading is not a very natural process, in my opinion. What I mean by that is you often have to go against what you were literally raised to do, in order to be successful.

Anyway, what concerns me with your post is not that you are considering going cash/live again. What concerns me is you've got a new method that seems quite a departure from your old one, and best I can tell this method is not yours. I firmly believe you must own your own method, your style of trading, in order to be successful. Attempting to model someone elses method will not work.

First, there is no method that you can just blindly follow and it be profitable, in my opinion. No one can write a blog or create a website that says "do x,y,z" and you will be profitable. There are always conditions, discretion is required. I say that with a caveat, automation naturally is another topic. But my premise is that long-term profitability, say 2-3 years at minimum, with a large enough sample size to prove it isn't some random luck streak (ie: hundreds and preferably thousands of trades) cannot be accomplished through a mechanical approach. You need instinct, you need a feel for the market, you need more than what is readily tangible to make it work.

You also know that you are playing in a field where only the absolute best survive. The most experienced, the most financially sound, the best equipment, the best of everything. Only the strong survive.

Anyway, I'm going off on a tangent but what concerned me was your post seems to be a departure from your prior method. That's fine in itself, but I wonder why the change? I've changed plenty in my trading career but I always felt I was moving forward in a positive and very clearly defined direction. You know how I feel about indicators, so I won't go into bashing them. But going from a Market Profile trader to an indicator trader seems "unusual" to me. But I've never traded with Market Profile, so I am mainly speaking out my ass so bear that in mind.

The real concern I guess is that you've adopted someone elses method instead of crafting your own. In the past, if I recall, your liabilities/weaknesses were not with the method but with the execution. I am surprised to see you depart the old method and have a new one, how does this help solve the execution problem? To me, smooth or perfect execution comes from long term experience with a method. You know it inside and out. You know it better than anyone else. If someone asks you why you entered a trade where you did, an outsider might find inconsistencies in your approach because there is no "black/white" signal, there is no "here is where you go long, here is where you go short". There is more to it than that. The method, the rule set, and thus the execution cannot be defined in explicit rules. Rather, its an implicit set of factors and circumstances that allows you to profit from it.

Now, I have no idea who this other indicator guy is or his website. I know nothing of him and am not saying his method does not work. I would hope that it does work, for him. But, I would be very cautious and I would never presume to think that his method would work for anyone other than himself.

I don't mean this to be a downer of a post. I just felt like I couldn't set back, I wanted to share my thoughts because I want you to succeed.

How much do you believe in this method? How much experience do you have with it?

Mike

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Hi David, nice to have you back....best wishes from here on out.....I'll check out the website you mentioned. Sounds a little different than most.

But, I agree 100% with Big Mike. Its best to stay with what you know inside and out and work on execution and the mental side of the game.

Not meaning to second guess you here, but it does seem odd the really major changes you've indicated. Especially MP trading to indicator trading. Once people go MP, they almost never go back....the charts you posted are, forgive me.....busy. I am sure mine are to someone else but if you did not come up with the trading method yourself, you'll be second guessing yourself on every trade wondering if you forgot to analyze something before making the trade. One thing I like about MP trading is the simplicity of the chart and the fact you really don't need anything else. I can't trade it but I understand the basic premise and know there is much value there.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


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 David_R 
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Big Mike View Post
David,

To be honest, I'm not sure what to think.

You've always been a great asset to futures.io (formerly BMT). That much I do know. I also know your a very smart guy, and I know that you have a passion for trading. You are determined, you are not a quitter.

I also know you've had some problems in the past with trading poorly. But, as I recall, those problems had little to do with your method and mostly to do with your execution. Psychological problems, in other words. You could also say that you had a huge amount of sim or chart reading experience, but not enough live trading experience with the proper tools in hand. I think that you need to live trade enough, with the proper tools, to give yourself a chance to overcome what comes naturally. Trading is not a very natural process, in my opinion. What I mean by that is you often have to go against what you were literally raised to do, in order to be successful.

Anyway, what concerns me with your post is not that you are considering going cash/live again. What concerns me is you've got a new method that seems quite a departure from your old one, and best I can tell this method is not yours. I firmly believe you must own your own method, your style of trading, in order to be successful. Attempting to model someone elses method will not work.

First, there is no method that you can just blindly follow and it be profitable, in my opinion. No one can write a blog or create a website that says "do x,y,z" and you will be profitable. There are always conditions, discretion is required. I say that with a caveat, automation naturally is another topic. But my premise is that long-term profitability, say 2-3 years at minimum, with a large enough sample size to prove it isn't some random luck streak (ie: hundreds and preferably thousands of trades) cannot be accomplished through a mechanical approach. You need instinct, you need a feel for the market, you need more than what is readily tangible to make it work.

You also know that you are playing in a field where only the absolute best survive. The most experienced, the most financially sound, the best equipment, the best of everything. Only the strong survive.

Anyway, I'm going off on a tangent but what concerned me was your post seems to be a departure from your prior method. That's fine in itself, but I wonder why the change? I've changed plenty in my trading career but I always felt I was moving forward in a positive and very clearly defined direction. You know how I feel about indicators, so I won't go into bashing them. But going from a Market Profile trader to an indicator trader seems "unusual" to me. But I've never traded with Market Profile, so I am mainly speaking out my ass so bear that in mind.

The real concern I guess is that you've adopted someone elses method instead of crafting your own. In the past, if I recall, your liabilities/weaknesses were not with the method but with the execution. I am surprised to see you depart the old method and have a new one, how does this help solve the execution problem? To me, smooth or perfect execution comes from long term experience with a method. You know it inside and out. You know it better than anyone else. If someone asks you why you entered a trade where you did, an outsider might find inconsistencies in your approach because there is no "black/white" signal, there is no "here is where you go long, here is where you go short". There is more to it than that. The method, the rule set, and thus the execution cannot be defined in explicit rules. Rather, its an implicit set of factors and circumstances that allows you to profit from it.

Now, I have no idea who this other indicator guy is or his website. I know nothing of him and am not saying his method does not work. I would hope that it does work, for him. But, I would be very cautious and I would never presume to think that his method would work for anyone other than himself.

I don't mean this to be a downer of a post. I just felt like I couldn't set back, I wanted to share my thoughts because I want you to succeed.

How much do you believe in this method? How much experience do you have with it?

Mike

Mike,

Thanks for the comments and I hear you loud and clear. I'm not really sure what to do.

I do like market profile, but I believe there is more to using MP than what I know about. I look at it in a simplistic form, so I wonder if I'm doing the right thing with it. I think it can provide good support and resistance zones and give some structure, but I'm questioning everything. I also found that it sounds good and looks good in hind sight to buy and sell the extremes on the profile etc, but we never really know where those are until after the fact. Plus, those trades that are supposed to be superior in location tend to be counter trend at the time. That is something that has killed me in the past.

As far as adopting someone elses method I would say, yes. I would also say that I see that all over the place on the forum. Everyone seems to want to use the next best thing that someone came up with. I'm not saying its right, but I think that is what is done. I also feel that since we are ... playing in a field where only the absolute best survive. The most experienced, the most financially sound, the best equipment, the best of everything. Only the strong survive. Then who am I to think that I could actually develop a method to compete with the best in the world. I'm not even sure where to begin to make something my own.

The methods from the website I listed have been used for years. There are various aspects of the methodology throughout the trading-naked.com website. The ironic thing about the trading-naked site is that they don't trade naked. The sub heading of the site is "The interpretation and application of Price Action Concepts" Most if not all the methods shown on that site use indicators. It is my understanding that the methods shown there are those of some very successful traders that have been at the game a long time including the guy on efuturevision.com.

I agree 100% that my issues are psychological. I'm not sure how to overcome them. I'm reading Brett S. latest book as you suggested and the task seems daunting at best. From what I have read so far there seems to be exercises on every other page. I feel overwhelmed with the book. Maybe I'm kidding myself if I think I can try again and just do it differently, but I'm not sure how else to find out unless I do.

The main reason for using the method I described, and it could be that method or some other method is that it provides a means for filtering or confirming the trade. I agree that trading is not about if xyz do abc or whatever, but isn't it about the probabilities of something working? So for example, if you see an uptrend in two or three time frames would the probabilities be greater for it to continue or to turn? Maybe the answer is different if you are right at R3 or the weekly high. So lets say you don't go long due to that, do you just short? Some may, but some may want to see an indication of a change of direction. Whether it be LH and LL and or a change in the direction of a moving average or whatever. I've heard that some fade pivots just because it approaches the pivot. Seems dangerous to me, but some do it. Some fade round numbers like 79.00 just because. I'm not so sure that is a sound thing to do. Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to convince you of anything, but it seems like to me it all works and it all doesn't.

To answer your questions, I believe in the method and believe it works, but I understand that it doesn't mean it will work for me. I have some experience with it, but not enough to go live.


What do you suggest?

David

interpretation and application of price a

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 Big Mike 
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David,

First, don't give up. The only sure fire way to fail at trading is to give up.

Brett's most recent book (Daily Trading Coach) is a great one. It is a gold mine of ideas and concepts to improve your trading.

Yes, on the forum everyone is looking for the next best thing. But, there is no evidence to suggest that means it is right or profitable. Most are searching because they don't know what else to do. Most are not as far along in their journey as you, and have not realized their issues are primarily to do with themselves and very little to do with the method. Everyone has to come down the path to get to the end of the road. There is no shortcut. What is the hottest area of the forum? Downloads. What is the least visited? Psychology. Now you tell me if you should give much credence to what other people are doing

I can't give you advice regarding market profile. But, I can read your post. And it seems to me you have already decided that market profile is not what makes sense to you right now, or it doesn't fit your style. Trust yourself.

It's not about trading naked or not. I believe profit has very little to do with the chart. It has everything to do with the individual. But in order to bridge the gap, we have to start somewhere. A chart helps a trader build confidence in themselves so you can get from point A to point B. That is why some traders may have 42 indicators on their chart and swear by them, and also be profitable. I don't believe for a second these indicators are what is making the trader profitable, rather it is their experience with them. The trader has learned to interpret the market through the eyes of these indicators, and with enough experience they've become an extension. The trader itself is good, or he would lose money no matter what is on his chart. I think that if you stripped away the indicators and forced the trader to trade with a blank chart, he would have problems. It's all psychological. I'm not saying that he couldn't one day overcome them, because I think he could. But he would struggle for a long time until he built up experience with the new method.

Many traders don't have the opportunity to learn from their mistakes. You've read before that you want to live to fight another day -- the way to make it in trading is to not go broke before you figure out how to trade. It's quite true.

You mentioned, paraphrasing, what's the point of trading if you are going against the best -- what chance do you have to succeed? First, before you start trading again, you really need to satisfy some external factors. Eliminate any major obstacles in your life surrounding your trading so that you can focus solely on trading. This could mean financial responsibilities, it could mean relationships, it could mean health, stress factors, etc. From there, you don't have to beat the best traders, you just have to beat 95% of all traders in order to make money.

Let me put it in perspective. I don't think George Foreman would be concerned if he was dropped in the middle of some suburban neighborhood and told he had to fight 100 people (one at a time) in the ring. Let's exclude factors like getting tired or sore. What I mean is, George knows the odds are he can beat these people. They are not boxers, they are just regular guys. Now lets say that his promoter said he will pay George $1,000 for every person he beats in the ring. Even if George wins in 95 out of 100 matches, he has still made a lot of money.

Now boxing and trading are not alike in many ways. But the average person trading, and losing money, is ill-equipped for the profession. They have negative external influences, they have inadequate experience or capital, they don't have a strong passion for it, etc. You can see where you are more like George Foreman than these average people. Now you may run up against a few people over time that are better than you, and you may lose to them. But each time you lose, you learn more, and you can also learn to just not accept the fight in the first place.

I hope this makes sense. The point of my gibberish is that you are already far, far ahead compared to the average trader. Give yourself some credit. The next wave of learning in your trading career is likely to come from within, and not externally (in my opinion). That is why I cautioned against getting caught up in some new method.

Mike

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 jagui 
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Hi David,

I can testify that the method explained in the trading-naked website were developed by great traders.
I personally learned a lot from buffy's and jimmer's mof and slingshot setup.
I watched buffy and jimmer for years in a trading room and learned what now forms the basis of my understanding of markets.
Jimmer also was for a long time in the efuturevision room.
But I didn't apply their method blindly... I studied them for a long time and then made some adjustments to their setups to better reflect my trading style and my personality.

What I'm trying to say is that there is nothing wrong to use someone else's techniques, as long as you've understand them well and adapted them to your trading personality.

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 David_R 
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jagui View Post
Hi David,

I can testify that the method explained in the trading-naked website were developed by great traders.
I personally learned a lot from buffy's and jimmer's mof and slingshot setup.
I watched buffy and jimmer for years in a trading room and learned what now forms the basis of my understanding of markets.
Jimmer also was for a long time in the efuturevision room.
But I didn't apply their method blindly... I studied them for a long time and then made some adjustments to their setups to better reflect my trading style and my personality.

What I'm trying to say is that there is nothing wrong to use someone else's techniques, as long as you've understand them well and adapted them to your trading personality.


Jagui,

Thanks for the comments.

Could you go into some detail about how what you learned from Buffy and Jimmer that helped you form your understanding of the markets. When I look at the MOF and Slingshot setups their is no explanation about market understanding or anything else. They do speak quite a bit about higher time frames though.

As far as trading personality goes, how does one determine that. I never considered myself a scalper because I though scalpers go for few ticks and I would think that a good method should do better than that, but at the same time I don't think I have the patience to be a swing or position trader. Is this what you mean by trader personality?

David

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 jagui 
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Hi David,

the understanding of market I learned came from the months and years of being in the trading room with buffy and other successful traders. Plenty of discussions were made about price action and, as far as I know, there are no traces of these discussions in the net, apart from the well-know buffy's article "Price action - the footprint of the money", which you probably have read, and some chat transcripts in the dacharts website.

What I've done is basically to simplify the mof and slingshot setups, as I believe they were using too many unnecessary rules, which I replaced with a new indicator not used by them.

This is also part of my trading personality, as I'm a "keep it simple" guy, and cannot use too many rules, my setups have to be as simple as possible, but not simplier.

Regarding the timeframes and trade duration, I tried all, from scalping to long term trading, and I found that I can't trade the daily and weekly timeframes, because I don't have the patience to wait for the setups to develop and for the trades to go on.

I'm both a scalper and a day trader: I enter a position with two targets: a very near scalping target and a second "free" target, which I keep adjusting as the trade unfolds, trying to catch a big part of the movement. When I see an intraday trend developing, this second target becomes a trailing stop.

I plan to start my journal here on BM, maybe in the beginning of semptember, as I'm now preparing for august holidays.

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 David_R 
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Hi David,

the understanding of market I learned came from the months and years of being in the trading room with buffy and other successful traders. Plenty of discussions were made about price action and, as far as I know, there are no traces of these discussions in the net, apart from the well-know buffy's article "Price action - the footprint of the money", which you probably have read, and some chat transcripts in the dacharts website.

What I've done is basically to simplify the mof and slingshot setups, as I believe they were using too many unnecessary rules, which I replaced with a new indicator not used by them.

This is also part of my trading personality, as I'm a "keep it simple" guy, and cannot use too many rules, my setups have to be as simple as possible, but not simplier.

Regarding the timeframes and trade duration, I tried all, from scalping to long term trading, and I found that I can't trade the daily and weekly timeframes, because I don't have the patience to wait for the setups to develop and for the trades to go on.

I'm both a scalper and a day trader: I enter a position with two targets: a very near scalping target and a second "free" target, which I keep adjusting as the trade unfolds, trying to catch a big part of the movement. When I see an intraday trend developing, this second target becomes a trailing stop.

I plan to start my journal here on BM, maybe in the beginning of semptember, as I'm now preparing for august holidays.


Jagui,

I agree that the slingshot and MOF have a lot of rules and I think the indicators are redundant as well. They have the 2X stochastic window and the Bline window and I don't understand why. When you get back from your holiday maybe you can share how simplified the method.

I agree about day and week time frame. I lack patience as well, but don't really want to consider myself a scalper. I always thought scalpers went for a few ticks and I feel that a good setup should yield better than a few ticks. I like the concept of a shorter term target and then a free trade looking for a bigger move. I even like having 3 targets if I can trade 3 units.

David

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 David_R 
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There much discussion about the use of indicators or not. Many have strong opinions which is great. What is the benefit/drawback of both?

There are two charts attached. A naked 6 range and a 900 tick with indicators. I indicate, in hind sight of course, where I would have taken trades based on the indy based chart. In the Elusive PA thread I know Mike is usually taking trades on the breaks of swing highs or Lows. I don't know if he does other things or not, but assuming that is the method of entry. I know others may use a 3 bar pattern or maybe even a trend line break.

What are the pros and cons of both these charts?

David

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 jagui 
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I agree that the slingshot and MOF have a lot of rules and I think the indicators are redundant as well. They have the 2X stochastic window and the Bline window and I don't understand why.

I believe because jimmer developed the 2X stochastics, and buffy developed the bline... so keep them both and no offense to anyone

Apart from the jokes, they appear to confirm everything with everything but... under the surface they understand and trade price action only. They use lots of indicators but at the same they trade naked, because indicators are used only to make price action clearer.

Their setups originate from a well defined price action pattern, and they use indicators to make it easier to identify that pattern. This is the correct way to use indicators, indicators aren't the setup themselves, the price pattern is the setup, and indicators only "indicate" that the pattern may be developing.

Once one has been trading this way for a long time, he start to "feel" the price action, can remove indicators and continue to see price action clearly, but there's no need to do it.

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  #98 (permalink)
 rassi 
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Well I'm amazed!

Seriously I feel slightly as though we were seperated at birth, lol.

It seems like we have been to all the same places and followed the same path. I am very familar with buffy / jimmer and there system and their trading room, having spent many months in there, what a great bunch of guys / girls and I also know trader rick from back then and have dropped buy his place a few times. A few from the old days of the room have gone on to teach others in what works for them ( Huddy / Rick...) at very reasonable costs and to some effect.

I also know you have checked out Mark Braun's and others fib structures. For me Mark is a legend. I have traded with him on and off for quite some time and he is always open and available for all sorts of inspiration/ money management issues / pshycological help. I have seen his trades (broker statements) and he does what he says day in day out and does very well from it even though in E.S terms he is a relativly small lot trader.

He switched me on to many things and his fib work forms the structure that all my trading is based on. However I'm not ashamed to admit that I had a hard time at first trying to work out how to execute and benefit from it!

Why?

Because i was trying to copy him, and there were certain issues I had with that. Anyway I then went to what i found to be the best solution to the problem.....I added a bit of my own experiance into the mix with the 3/10/16 as a trigger and I have attached 2 charts to try and show how I trade this way.

NB I use MarketDelta for E.S but the charts are Eurostox and as such and as with F.X I use the 3/10/16.

I have marked the swings and targets with lines rather than putting all the fibs on (I can do if you like) and I then trade the lower time frame away from the larger time frame.

It is worth noting the purple lines are where i would have price action entrys and the 3/10/16 entrys should be visable at the bottom of the charts. If the indicator makes it easy to read the price action or in my case stay in the trade longer then great!

NB. the small gartley on the lower time frame that sets up at the lows ( green lines) after the perfect ab/cd (yellow lines) also the target from the larger blue line swings.

Anyway , longest post ever for me! hope its of some help! I guess what im trying to say is I have found my own path by using bits of various things put together in away that as Mark would say "calls to my eye" I.E i can see in real time.

Hope you had a great W/E.

cheers jimbo

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 jagui 
Italy - Roma
 
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rassi View Post
Well I'm amazed!

Seriously I feel slightly as though we were seperated at birth, lol.

It seems like we have been to all the same places and followed the same path. I am very familar with buffy / jimmer and there system and their trading room, having spent many months in there, what a great bunch of guys / girls and I also know trader rick from back then and have dropped buy his place a few times. A few from the old days of the room have gone on to teach others in what works for them ( Huddy / Rick...) at very reasonable costs and to some effect.



LOL!

I really really miss the old days of the room, great traders, with the same charts, looking for the same setups, the same timeframes... that was HUGE!

I never learned so much anywhere else.
I'm always looking for something similar, but never found anything with the same value.
This futures.io (formerly BMT) forum is catching my attention now, I see some potential in it, hopefully we'll build something great

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 jagui 
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rassi View Post
He switched me on to many things and his fib work forms the structure that all my trading is based on. However I'm not ashamed to admit that I had a hard time at first trying to work out how to execute and benefit from it!

Why?

Because i was trying to copy him, and there were certain issues I had with that. Anyway I then went to what i found to be the best solution to the problem.....I added a bit of my own experiance into the mix with the 3/10/16 as a trigger and I have attached 2 charts to try and show how I trade this way.


This could be one of those big "secrets" of trading: you have to adapt other people methods to yourself, this way you can feel it as yours and have the inner belief it is right for you.

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