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David_R's Trading Journey Journal (Pls comment)


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David_R's Trading Journey Journal (Pls comment)

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  #81 (permalink)
 David_R 
Market Wizard
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No chart for Friday the 16th. I did not trade.

Additionally, it looks as though the time has come to take a break from trading. One main reason is I am under capitalized and that alone makes it hard to trade. Also, i have some other personal challenges such as not having had a full-time job for over a year and a half and since I am not a profitable trader, I am not trading for a living. It looks like I need to sell my home and then see what happens from there. I hope to be back and one day trade for a living.

D

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  #82 (permalink)
 fiki 
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Sorry to hear about your personal problems. I´ve enjoyed following your trading. But i think your´re doing the right thing. Learning to trade is hard. Doing it under the pressuare of the circumstances you´re describing must be much much harder since trading is such a mental game. The market will still be here when u get back on track and feel ready to trade again.

Good luck, and i truely hope everything workes out for u.

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  #83 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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David,

I am very sorry to read your above post.

But, like fiki said, I think you are doing the right thing. Trading cannot be "forced", and it can't be done on your schedule. Right now, you've got other obligations of a higher priority that require your attention, and trading will have to wait. This is the proper way to handle the situation.

I hope that once you get back on your feet you will be able to put together another stake and come back and try to make trading work for you as a professional career to end all other careers To that end, have a great journey and I hope you and your family prosper!

Mike

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  #84 (permalink)
 David_R 
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fiki View Post
Sorry to hear about your personal problems. I´ve enjoyed following your trading. But i think your´re doing the right thing. Learning to trade is hard. Doing it under the pressuare of the circumstances you´re describing must be much much harder since trading is such a mental game. The market will still be here when u get back on track and feel ready to trade again.

Good luck, and i truely hope everything workes out for u.

Fiki,

Thanks for comments, I appreciate it.

David

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  #85 (permalink)
 David_R 
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Big Mike View Post
David,

I am very sorry to read your above post.

But, like fiki said, I think you are doing the right thing. Trading cannot be "forced", and it can't be done on your schedule. Right now, you've got other obligations of a higher priority that require your attention, and trading will have to wait. This is the proper way to handle the situation.

I hope that once you get back on your feet you will be able to put together another stake and come back and try to make trading work for you as a professional career to end all other careers To that end, have a great journey and I hope you and your family prosper!

Mike

Mike,

Thanks for the support. I appreciate the comments. I hope to be back as well. I will probably try and continue with the CL market profile thread to keep involved in some way. I enjoy doing it and I hope that some benefit from the analysis.

David

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  #86 (permalink)
 rassi 
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Hi David,

I echo the sentiments of Fiki and BigMike, fwiw your posts have always been useful and informative and I believe that you are fully equipped to make it in this profession as and when you have the resources to do so. All the best.

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  #87 (permalink)
 David_R 
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Hello Everyone,

Well, in the coming Months or Weeks I hope to give trading a try again. It may be sim and it may be live or a combination of the two. My goal is to trade well based on my plan. I'm calling myself an intra-day trend trader. I no longer want to try to predict what will happen. Therefore, I intend to trade in the direction of the current trend. I will be using multiple Time frames to do this as well as support and resistance from higher time frame charts such as the 60 minute and the daily. I will also most likely use Market profile to find support and resistance as well, but not in great detail. In other words, I am not trading market profile levels in and of themselves, but if levels act and S/R and a trade sets up I will take it.

I am using some indicators. I have gone back and forth on this and I know that there are many opinions regarding using a naked chart. It is always said we should use what speaks to us and what works for one may not work for others. The use of these indicators will help me to filter trades and I think frames price very well.

My plan is not done yet, but I am posting a chart of the basic set up. This shows 4 charts, but it could be two or three. I'm showing 4 for illustration purposes with some setups. It can be Tick, Minute or volume charts. I will most likely change up the charts a little where I put the previous days H,L,C as well as my own S/R lines , pivots on say a 5 minute.

Now, I need to say that I did not develop this methodology. I've seen various components of the method on some free websites, but the specifics of the methodology comes from efuturevision.com and a trader that goes by Trader Rick. I'm not selling or pitching the website, but I am disclosing where I obtained the method shown. I have asked permission to show charts, and he said I could do so as well as give some detail, but he has asked that I don't give specific settings or certain details. efuturevision.com does not sell books, tapes, indicators, webinars or a trading room. The main aspect of the site are the various training videos of setups that Rick has either learned from others and expanded on or created himself. There is a one time fee for lifetime access. I believe he provides one of the training videos for free as well and he has video updates a couple times a week that are free as well. I think the video updates appear on the front page of the site. If you want to see a variation of the setup I'm showing watch his current video. It is free.

Setup:

1. 3/10/16 MACD or LBR Osc: first cross of slow line ( he said I could provide the info on this indy)

2. Fast line crosses baseline for conservative trade and does not for aggressive trade.

3. MA a above MA b for a long and MA a below MA b for a short.

4. Minimum of 2 time frames in alignment. This means that the core time frame where the set up has occurred plus the 3X time frame higher.

5. Trend is determined by the direction of moving average b.

6. There are a number of entry methods that can be employed. Price action such as taking out the high of the low bar for a long, inside bar break, a tag of the MA or the channel line (this is an aggressive entry, but if channel line has a steep slope and is tagged it can be and excellent entry), Trend line break.

7. Stops: below/above entry bar or prior swing.

8. Target prior swing high, fibs extensions, consolidation zones, MP areas such as high volume.

By the way, yes, I think this was a trend day that I show in the example. There may have been some shorts as well, but to get a clearer idea of the method a trending day was better. On a non trend day smaller timeframes may be useful to get a trade or just don't trade. I show the YM, but I find that CL may work well with this because of the size of the moves and it moves often.

Feel free to ask question if you like.

David

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  #88 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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David,

To be honest, I'm not sure what to think.

You've always been a great asset to futures.io (formerly BMT). That much I do know. I also know your a very smart guy, and I know that you have a passion for trading. You are determined, you are not a quitter.

I also know you've had some problems in the past with trading poorly. But, as I recall, those problems had little to do with your method and mostly to do with your execution. Psychological problems, in other words. You could also say that you had a huge amount of sim or chart reading experience, but not enough live trading experience with the proper tools in hand. I think that you need to live trade enough, with the proper tools, to give yourself a chance to overcome what comes naturally. Trading is not a very natural process, in my opinion. What I mean by that is you often have to go against what you were literally raised to do, in order to be successful.

Anyway, what concerns me with your post is not that you are considering going cash/live again. What concerns me is you've got a new method that seems quite a departure from your old one, and best I can tell this method is not yours. I firmly believe you must own your own method, your style of trading, in order to be successful. Attempting to model someone elses method will not work.

First, there is no method that you can just blindly follow and it be profitable, in my opinion. No one can write a blog or create a website that says "do x,y,z" and you will be profitable. There are always conditions, discretion is required. I say that with a caveat, automation naturally is another topic. But my premise is that long-term profitability, say 2-3 years at minimum, with a large enough sample size to prove it isn't some random luck streak (ie: hundreds and preferably thousands of trades) cannot be accomplished through a mechanical approach. You need instinct, you need a feel for the market, you need more than what is readily tangible to make it work.

You also know that you are playing in a field where only the absolute best survive. The most experienced, the most financially sound, the best equipment, the best of everything. Only the strong survive.

Anyway, I'm going off on a tangent but what concerned me was your post seems to be a departure from your prior method. That's fine in itself, but I wonder why the change? I've changed plenty in my trading career but I always felt I was moving forward in a positive and very clearly defined direction. You know how I feel about indicators, so I won't go into bashing them. But going from a Market Profile trader to an indicator trader seems "unusual" to me. But I've never traded with Market Profile, so I am mainly speaking out my ass so bear that in mind.

The real concern I guess is that you've adopted someone elses method instead of crafting your own. In the past, if I recall, your liabilities/weaknesses were not with the method but with the execution. I am surprised to see you depart the old method and have a new one, how does this help solve the execution problem? To me, smooth or perfect execution comes from long term experience with a method. You know it inside and out. You know it better than anyone else. If someone asks you why you entered a trade where you did, an outsider might find inconsistencies in your approach because there is no "black/white" signal, there is no "here is where you go long, here is where you go short". There is more to it than that. The method, the rule set, and thus the execution cannot be defined in explicit rules. Rather, its an implicit set of factors and circumstances that allows you to profit from it.

Now, I have no idea who this other indicator guy is or his website. I know nothing of him and am not saying his method does not work. I would hope that it does work, for him. But, I would be very cautious and I would never presume to think that his method would work for anyone other than himself.

I don't mean this to be a downer of a post. I just felt like I couldn't set back, I wanted to share my thoughts because I want you to succeed.

How much do you believe in this method? How much experience do you have with it?

Mike

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  #89 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Hi David, nice to have you back....best wishes from here on out.....I'll check out the website you mentioned. Sounds a little different than most.

But, I agree 100% with Big Mike. Its best to stay with what you know inside and out and work on execution and the mental side of the game.

Not meaning to second guess you here, but it does seem odd the really major changes you've indicated. Especially MP trading to indicator trading. Once people go MP, they almost never go back....the charts you posted are, forgive me.....busy. I am sure mine are to someone else but if you did not come up with the trading method yourself, you'll be second guessing yourself on every trade wondering if you forgot to analyze something before making the trade. One thing I like about MP trading is the simplicity of the chart and the fact you really don't need anything else. I can't trade it but I understand the basic premise and know there is much value there.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #90 (permalink)
 David_R 
Market Wizard
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Big Mike View Post
David,

To be honest, I'm not sure what to think.

You've always been a great asset to futures.io (formerly BMT). That much I do know. I also know your a very smart guy, and I know that you have a passion for trading. You are determined, you are not a quitter.

I also know you've had some problems in the past with trading poorly. But, as I recall, those problems had little to do with your method and mostly to do with your execution. Psychological problems, in other words. You could also say that you had a huge amount of sim or chart reading experience, but not enough live trading experience with the proper tools in hand. I think that you need to live trade enough, with the proper tools, to give yourself a chance to overcome what comes naturally. Trading is not a very natural process, in my opinion. What I mean by that is you often have to go against what you were literally raised to do, in order to be successful.

Anyway, what concerns me with your post is not that you are considering going cash/live again. What concerns me is you've got a new method that seems quite a departure from your old one, and best I can tell this method is not yours. I firmly believe you must own your own method, your style of trading, in order to be successful. Attempting to model someone elses method will not work.

First, there is no method that you can just blindly follow and it be profitable, in my opinion. No one can write a blog or create a website that says "do x,y,z" and you will be profitable. There are always conditions, discretion is required. I say that with a caveat, automation naturally is another topic. But my premise is that long-term profitability, say 2-3 years at minimum, with a large enough sample size to prove it isn't some random luck streak (ie: hundreds and preferably thousands of trades) cannot be accomplished through a mechanical approach. You need instinct, you need a feel for the market, you need more than what is readily tangible to make it work.

You also know that you are playing in a field where only the absolute best survive. The most experienced, the most financially sound, the best equipment, the best of everything. Only the strong survive.

Anyway, I'm going off on a tangent but what concerned me was your post seems to be a departure from your prior method. That's fine in itself, but I wonder why the change? I've changed plenty in my trading career but I always felt I was moving forward in a positive and very clearly defined direction. You know how I feel about indicators, so I won't go into bashing them. But going from a Market Profile trader to an indicator trader seems "unusual" to me. But I've never traded with Market Profile, so I am mainly speaking out my ass so bear that in mind.

The real concern I guess is that you've adopted someone elses method instead of crafting your own. In the past, if I recall, your liabilities/weaknesses were not with the method but with the execution. I am surprised to see you depart the old method and have a new one, how does this help solve the execution problem? To me, smooth or perfect execution comes from long term experience with a method. You know it inside and out. You know it better than anyone else. If someone asks you why you entered a trade where you did, an outsider might find inconsistencies in your approach because there is no "black/white" signal, there is no "here is where you go long, here is where you go short". There is more to it than that. The method, the rule set, and thus the execution cannot be defined in explicit rules. Rather, its an implicit set of factors and circumstances that allows you to profit from it.

Now, I have no idea who this other indicator guy is or his website. I know nothing of him and am not saying his method does not work. I would hope that it does work, for him. But, I would be very cautious and I would never presume to think that his method would work for anyone other than himself.

I don't mean this to be a downer of a post. I just felt like I couldn't set back, I wanted to share my thoughts because I want you to succeed.

How much do you believe in this method? How much experience do you have with it?

Mike

Mike,

Thanks for the comments and I hear you loud and clear. I'm not really sure what to do.

I do like market profile, but I believe there is more to using MP than what I know about. I look at it in a simplistic form, so I wonder if I'm doing the right thing with it. I think it can provide good support and resistance zones and give some structure, but I'm questioning everything. I also found that it sounds good and looks good in hind sight to buy and sell the extremes on the profile etc, but we never really know where those are until after the fact. Plus, those trades that are supposed to be superior in location tend to be counter trend at the time. That is something that has killed me in the past.

As far as adopting someone elses method I would say, yes. I would also say that I see that all over the place on the forum. Everyone seems to want to use the next best thing that someone came up with. I'm not saying its right, but I think that is what is done. I also feel that since we are ... playing in a field where only the absolute best survive. The most experienced, the most financially sound, the best equipment, the best of everything. Only the strong survive. Then who am I to think that I could actually develop a method to compete with the best in the world. I'm not even sure where to begin to make something my own.

The methods from the website I listed have been used for years. There are various aspects of the methodology throughout the trading-naked.com website. The ironic thing about the trading-naked site is that they don't trade naked. The sub heading of the site is "The interpretation and application of Price Action Concepts" Most if not all the methods shown on that site use indicators. It is my understanding that the methods shown there are those of some very successful traders that have been at the game a long time including the guy on efuturevision.com.

I agree 100% that my issues are psychological. I'm not sure how to overcome them. I'm reading Brett S. latest book as you suggested and the task seems daunting at best. From what I have read so far there seems to be exercises on every other page. I feel overwhelmed with the book. Maybe I'm kidding myself if I think I can try again and just do it differently, but I'm not sure how else to find out unless I do.

The main reason for using the method I described, and it could be that method or some other method is that it provides a means for filtering or confirming the trade. I agree that trading is not about if xyz do abc or whatever, but isn't it about the probabilities of something working? So for example, if you see an uptrend in two or three time frames would the probabilities be greater for it to continue or to turn? Maybe the answer is different if you are right at R3 or the weekly high. So lets say you don't go long due to that, do you just short? Some may, but some may want to see an indication of a change of direction. Whether it be LH and LL and or a change in the direction of a moving average or whatever. I've heard that some fade pivots just because it approaches the pivot. Seems dangerous to me, but some do it. Some fade round numbers like 79.00 just because. I'm not so sure that is a sound thing to do. Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to convince you of anything, but it seems like to me it all works and it all doesn't.

To answer your questions, I believe in the method and believe it works, but I understand that it doesn't mean it will work for me. I have some experience with it, but not enough to go live.


What do you suggest?

David

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